Comparing Prime Power Ratings across early Derby & final Derby Brisnet pp's

[Bill Cullen]

Some questions folks asked me on the earlier Derby thread I started got me thinking and I realized that maybe the best place to look across the early and final versions of the Brisnet pp's for the Derby are the Prime Power Ratings.

I looked at the top ten Prime Power ranked horses in the final version of the pp's and compared them to their corresponding Prime Power Ratings in the early version of the pp's. Here's what looked significant to me:

Four horses had their Prime Power Ratings increase by more than 1 point going from the early to the final versions of the pp's:

Good Magic -> an increase of 1.3 - no change in it's number one ranking across the two versions

Justify - > an increase of 1.3 - I note that Justify jumped one rank as well to the second spot from the old to the final version of the pp's

Enticed -> an increase of 2.0 - I note that Enticed jumped two ranks as well to the fourth spot from the old to the final version of the pp's

Noble Indy -> an increase of 1.6 - I note that Noble Indy jumped two ranks as well to the 7th spot from the old to the final version of the pp's.

Good Luck!

Bill C

[Mulerider]

Some questions folks asked me on the earlier Derby thread I started got me thinking and I realized that maybe the best place to look across the early and final versions of the Brisnet pp's for the Derby are the Prime Power Ratings.

I looked at the top ten Prime Power ranked horses in the final version of the pp's and compared them to their corresponding Prime Power Ratings in the early version of the pp's. Here's what looked significant to me:

Four horses had their Prime Power Ratings increase by more than 1 point going from the early to the final versions of the pp's:

Good Magic -> an increase of 1.3 - no change in it's number one ranking across the two versions

Justify - > an increase of 1.3 - I note that Justify jumped one rank as well to the second spot from the old to the final version of the pp's

Enticed -> an increase of 2.0 - I note that Enticed jumped two ranks as well to the fourth spot from the old to the final version of the pp's

Noble Indy -> an increase of 1.6 - I note that Noble Indy jumped two ranks as well to the 7th spot from the old to the final version of the pp's.

Good Luck!

Bill C

Bill, I want to be sure we're looking at the same thing. I'm looking at the Bris Ultimate PPs. Justify is ranked 3rd in Prime Power; Enticed is ranked 6th; Noble Indy is ranked 9th. Good Magic is ranked 1st in my version as well.

Mule

[Bill Cullen]

Bill, I want to be sure we're looking at the same thing. I'm looking at the Bris Ultimate PPs. Justify is ranked 3rd in Prime Power; Enticed is ranked 6th; Noble Indy is ranked 9th. Good Magic is ranked 1st in my version as well.

Mule

Mule,

You are looking at the early version of the Brisnet Derby ultimate pp's.
Yes, the prime power rankings you show above are exactly what I see in my EARLY VERSION OF THE BRISNET ULTIMATE PP'S FOR THE 2018 k.DERBY.

When you look at the final version of the ultimate pp's for the 2018 K. Derby (the version that has the M/lL odds and post position numbers), the above rankings change except for Good Magic. Justify is 2nd, Enticed is 4th and Noble Indy is 7th.

Best,

Bill C

[Mulerider]

Mule,

You are looking at the early version of the Brisnet Derby ultimate pp's.
Yes, the prime power rankings you show above are exactly what I see in my EARLY VERSION OF THE BRISNET ULTIMATE PP'S FOR THE 2018 k.DERBY.

When you look at the final version of the ultimate pp's for the 2018 K. Derby (the version that has the M/lL odds and post position numbers), the above rankings change except for Good Magic. Justify is 2nd, Enticed is 4th and Noble Indy is 7th.

Best,

Bill C

Thanks. There's the problem...and I'm going to let Bris know about it. I printed the Ultimates using the All-Ways data files with the Custom PP Generator. But those All-Ways data files only came out yesterday after the post position draw, so the PPs should be right. Apparently they're not.

Mule

[Mulerider]

Bill -- Bris needs to get it together. I see what you're talking about on the list of available PPs...one is just for Churchill Race 12, the Derby. And the Prime Power numbers in it are not the same as in Race 12 if you purchase the whole card. So apparently all Bris did was take the earlier version and add post positions yesterday, and is now selling it without the corrected Derby rankings.

I actually just bought the Ultimates card to see if it matched what my Custom PP generator was spitting out using All-Ways. It did. (Actually Bris dropped the ball twice...they didn't change the data files, either.)


Mule

[Bill Cullen]

Bill -- Bris needs to get it together. I see what you're talking about on the list of available PPs...one is just for Churchill Race 12, the Derby. And the Prime Power numbers in it are not the same as in Race 12 if you purchase the whole card. So apparently all Bris did was take the earlier version and add post positions yesterday, and is now selling it without the corrected Derby rankings.

I actually just bought the Ultimates card to see if it matched what my Custom PP generator was spitting out using All-Ways. It did. (Actually Bris dropped the ball twice...they didn't change the data files, either.)


Mule

Mule,

if you are going to use me in a potentially legal matter, please communicate to me privately.

On advice of counsel, i disavow any implied claim I have made or might have made regarding the accuracy of Brisnet pp's.

I have always had the highest regard for Brisnet past performances.
In fact, if I had to guess, there is universal acclaim on this site for the veracity of the data that Brisnet puts out.

All good things,

Bill C

[Mulerider]

Mule,

if you are going to use me in a potentially legal matter, please communicate to me privately.

On advice of counsel, i disavow any implied claim I have made or might have made regarding the accuracy of Brisnet pp's.

I have always had the highest regard for Brisnet past performances.
In fact, if I had to guess, there is universal acclaim on this site for the veracity of the data that Brisnet puts out.

All good things,

Bill C

My attorneys on retainer at the noted firm of Dewey, Cheatem, & Howe will be looking into this matter. :headbanger:

Mule

[Bill Cullen]

My attorneys on retainer at the noted firm of Dewey, Cheatem, & Howe will be looking into this matter. :headbanger:

Mule

My attorney is Buckwheat McGee at the local gin joint and he's on retainer as long as I buy him drinks.

[GMB@BP]

My attorney is Buckwheat McGee at the local gin joint and he's on retainer as long as I buy him drinks.

i laughed

[Tom]

Does PP factor into the PP ratings at all?
Or recent works?

Why would PP change?

[Mulerider]

Does PP factor into the PP ratings at all?
Or recent works?

Why would PP change?

No idea, but it did. Also, on the Race Summary page there were a couple of very small adjustments on the Average Class Level, and on the Race Rating as well. There's really no excuse for having a discrepancy like that. The Derby numbers should have been updated in the full card PPs if there's been a change.

[Bill Cullen]

Does PP factor into the PP ratings at all?
Or recent works?

Why would PP change?

My understanding from having read explanations in the past from Brisnet is that the RR and CR for the most recent races (in my experience the last two races) were subject to change based on how horses coming out of those races did in the future relative to those past (and last two races) a horse might sport in its pp's.

Regarding the prime power ratings, I knew they changed like the RR and CR ratings and I always assumed that they were significantly influenced by changes in the RR & CR ratings.

[Bill Cullen]

It looks like Brisnet has updated the latest Derby ultimate pp's with the Prime Power rankings that existed in the early Derby ultimate pp's (I believe I downloaded my early pp's on April 17th). I downloaded my final version on May 1 after the post positions were established.

It seems like something fishy is going on here.

[Bill Cullen]

It looks like Brisnet has updated the latest Derby ultimate pp's with the Prime Power rankings that existed in the early Derby ultimate pp's (I believe I downloaded my early pp's on April 17th). I downloaded my final version on May 1 after the post positions were established.

It seems like something fishy is going on here.

TO CLARIFY THE ABOVE, THE FULL CARD FOR CHURCHILL DOWNS ON MAY STH SHOWS THE 12TH RACE STILL REFLECTING the Prime Power rankings that existed in the early Derby ultimate pp's (I believe I downloaded my early pp's on April 17th).

THE STAND ALONE ULTIMATE PP'S JUST FOR THE DERBY ALONE SHOW WHAT I ALSO SHOW FOR THE STAND ALONE DERBY PP'S THAT I downloaded on May 1 after the post positions were established.

[CSR]

https://78.media.tumblr.com/18cc62c8c8444b4627d8e5ee6df36ee4/tumblr_p5y3i9gQIg1rcaovvo1_500.jpg

[Mulerider]

It seems like something fishy is going on here.

Or, more likely, a typical example of incompetence and/or laziness.

[Bill Cullen]

Or, more likely, a typical example of incompetence and/or laziness.

I'd like to think it's a onetime oversight but I honestly don't know.

[Bill Cullen]

Some questions folks asked me on the earlier Derby thread I started got me thinking and I realized that maybe the best place to look across the early and final versions of the Brisnet pp's for the Derby are the Prime Power Ratings.

I looked at the top ten Prime Power ranked horses in the final version of the pp's and compared them to their corresponding Prime Power Ratings in the early version of the pp's. Here's what looked significant to me:

Four horses had their Prime Power Ratings increase by more than 1 point going from the early to the final versions of the pp's:

Good Magic -> an increase of 1.3 - no change in it's number one ranking across the two versions

Justify - > an increase of 1.3 - I note that Justify jumped one rank as well to the second spot from the old to the final version of the pp's

Enticed -> an increase of 2.0 - I note that Enticed jumped two ranks as well to the fourth spot from the old to the final version of the pp's

Noble Indy -> an increase of 1.6 - I note that Noble Indy jumped two ranks as well to the 7th spot from the old to the final version of the pp's.

Good Luck!

Bill C

Well, we nailed the exacta but let's see how this angle holds up for the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.