Testing a new angle for the Derby - the picks derived from the angle

[Bill Cullen]

Using the Brisnet pp's, I downloaded the early pp's after the prep races were over three weeks before the Derby.

Then I downloaded the final version with the M/L odds and the post positions.

Comparing each of the 20 entered horses across the two sets of Brisnet pp's, I looked for any positive ( increased number value) in the last two races of each horse in two ratings: the RR and CR.

Here are the 4 horses I found:

1) Mendelssohn (the top ranked with an increase in an RR and a CR)

2) Magnum Moon

3) Solomini

4) Combatant

I will bet a 50-cent trifecta box and a $1 exacta box for a total of $36 bet.
Only for the K. Derby do I loosen rules of money management.
It's the one time you want to have fun in a sport that requires that you usually be cold blooded.

Good luck!

Bill C

[LoneF]

Using the Brisnet pp's, I downloaded the early pp's after the prep races were over three weeks before the Derby.

Then I downloaded the final version with the M/L odds and the post positions.

Comparing each of the 20 entered horses across the two sets of Brisnet pp's, I looked for any positive ( increased number value) in the last two races of each horse in two ratings: the RR and CR.

Here are the 4 horses I found:

1) Mendelssohn (the top ranked with an increase in an RR and a CR)

2) Magnum Moon

3) Solomini

4) Combatant

I will bet a 50-cent trifecta box and a $1 exacta box for a total of $36 bet.
Only for the K. Derby do I loosen rules of money management.
It's the one time you want to have fun in a sport that requires that you usually be cold blooded.

Good luck!

Bill C

If your angle has Mendelssohn #1 and Magnum Moon #2 than I think your on to something !!

[Bill Cullen]

Magnum Moon is only second in the sense that he beat the other two horses in the same race. Since the RR of all three horses (Magnum Moon, Solomoni and Combatant) increased by 1 for all three in one of their last two races, they are technically all tied.

I do note that for the last last race, having the shortest turn around time AND the highest RR for any horses in the last race, Magnum Moon, Solomoni and Combatant are unique for the current 20 Derby entries.

Sometimes divergent points of view regarding handicapping converge on one horse more often than others. I'm seeing that with Solomoni in more than than I can describe in this short space

Best,

Bill C

[MNslappy]

BRIS Race Ratings

BCJuvy 118

ArkDerby 117
Rebel 117
SanFelipe 117

SA Derby 116
BlueGrass 116
Wood 116
FlaDerby 116
FtnYouth 116
Gotham 116
TampDerby 116
HolyBull 116
Risen Star 116
SamDavis 116
Southwest 116

LaDerby 115

[MNslappy]

Bris RR and CR Ratings:

a) RR is the Bris Race Rating and measures the overall quality of horses which competed in a race: the higher the number, the tougher the competition.

b) CR is the Bris Class Rating measures a horse’s actual performance against this competition in a race: the higher the number, the better the horse performed.

[Bill Cullen]

I'm not sure what you intended me to take away from your list of RR ratings for those Derby prep races.

Best,

Bill C

[MNslappy]

I'm not sure what you intended me to take away from your list of RR ratings for those Derby prep races.

Best,

Bill C

I just thought I'd post em, since I wrote them all down when I was looking at the BRIS PPs yesterday. This seemed like the thread to do it in. Just a way to show what BRIS thought of the strength of each prep field.

[Bill Cullen]

Good idea and useful to have all the major prep races' RR ratings in one place that you can take in at a single glance.

[Mulerider]

What is the RR and the CR for Mendelssohn in the Dubai race?

[Bill Cullen]

As far as I know, from the final Brisnet pp's for the Derby, there are none shown for that UAE race.

[Bill Cullen]

What is the RR and the CR for Mendelssohn in the Dubai race?

I think i see what you might have in mind: my original post in the thread said I was looking at the last two races for each entrant in the Derby showing any increase in their last two races. In the early version of the Derby pp's the March 9th race for Mendelssohn (2nd race back) showed an RR rating of 116 for that race and a CR rating for the horse itself of 119 in that race. In the final Brisnet Derby pp's, those ratings jumped to 117 and 120 respectively.

Best,

Bill C

[SecretAgentMan]

How has this new angle done the past 20 years? Did you go back & get results?

[Mulerider]

I think i see what you might have in mind: my original post in the thread said I was looking at the last two races for each entrant in the Derby showing any increase in their last two races. In the early version of the Derby pp's the March 9th race for Mendelssohn (2nd race back) showed an RR rating of 116 for that race and a CR rating for the horse itself of 119 in that race. In the final Brisnet Derby pp's, those ratings jumped to 117 and 120 respectively.

Best,

Bill C

Yes. Thanks.

[Bill Cullen]

How has this new angle done the past 20 years? Did you go back & get results?

No, this is a brand new angle for me. I wanted to try something different for this year's Derby.

By the way, there are a few horses that have been prominently mentioned that regressed in either of their last two RR's And/Or CR's.

They are Hofburg, Good Magic and Audible.

[BlueChip@DRF]

No, this is a brand new angle for me. I wanted to try something different for this year's Derby.

By the way, there are a few horses that have been prominently mentioned that regressed in either of their last two RR's And/Or CR's.

They are Hofburg, Good Magic and Audible.

Regressed? How so? Class-wise?

[Bill Cullen]

Regressed? How so? Class-wise?

Hofburg, Good Magic and Audible showed from their early derby pp's to their final Derby pp's (these are the Brisnet pp's) a drop in value of one their last two race RR's and/ or CR's.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Hofburg, Good Magic and Audible showed from their early derby pp's to their final Derby pp's (these are the Brisnet pp's) a drop in value of one their last two race RR's and/ or CR's.

You sure about Hofburg?
RR: 112 to 112 to 116
CR: 112 to 117 to 121

[Bill Cullen]

You sure about Hofburg?
RR: 112 to 112 to 116
CR: 112 to 117 to 121

When I down loaded the early Derby pp's from Brisnet on April 17th, here's when i see for Hofburg for his last two race RR's & CR's:

last race RR = 117; last race CR = 121
2nd race back RR = 112; 2nd race back CR= 118;

In the final version of the Brisnet Derby pp's, here's when i see for Hofburg for his last two race RR's & CR's:

last race RR = 116; last race CR = 121
2nd race back RR = 112; 2nd race back CR= 117;

[BlueChip@DRF]

So he went up, right?

[Bill Cullen]

So he went up, right?

No, the last race RR and the 2nd race back CR declined.

[razorback5]

Don't have any of the 4 in my top 3 spots. Have a feeling there are going to be a few happy people going after the super on Saturday as most handicappers picks are all over the place.

[Bill Cullen]

Don't have any of the 4 in my top 3 spots. Have a feeling there are going to be a few happy people going after the super on Saturday as most handicappers picks are all over the place.

That's what I like to hear!

Seriously, I'm just looking for a new way to play the Derby.

Good luck to you!

Bill C

[razorback5]

GL to you too! People are always saying that a horse needs a lot of luck to win the KD..I always think the bettors are the ones who need a lot luck for this race.