It's Pletcher's Derby

[porchy44]

Pletcher has a leading four horses in the field: Magnum Moon, Audible, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy — three of which will be in the the second gate. Pletcher won last year with Always Dreaming and in 2010 with Super Saver.

I will be playing Audible (Castellano) and Vino Rosso (Velasquez). Both have great Jockeys.

[Spalding No!]

I will be playing Audible (Castellano) and Vino Rosso (Velasquez). Both have great Jockeys.
Audible's pedigree makes me question his stamina. His jockey was wise to settle well off the fast pace last out, but I wonder if he will try the same thing here, possibly giving the colt too much to do or possibly moving too early (he's had the lead at the stretch call in his last 3 regardless of early position). Seems to have some tactical speed if he wants to use it. Audible often looks like he's struggling on the far turn, yet has won his races by open lengths.

I like Vino Rosso for the most part, but don't like that he was lugging in in the Wood. Post puts him at risk for going very wide into the first turn and perhaps throughout.

[Mc990]

Pletcher has a leading four horses in the field: Magnum Moon, Audible, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy — three of which will be in the the second gate. Pletcher won last year with Always Dreaming and in 2010 with Super Saver.

I will be playing Audible (Castellano) and Vino Rosso (Velasquez). Both have great Jockeys.

How much ground loss are you penciling in for Vino with Velazquez aboard? He could run the best figure (but most likely won't) and be out of the money....

[f2tornado]

After I'll Have Another won from the 19 path I vowed to not let an outside post sway me from a selection. There have been no shortage of outside winners over the years. I recall back in the day when the trainers picked the post one of them picked the 16 hole. I don't think the 18 hole hurts a horse like Vino Rosso as much as it would a front running type like Promises Fulfilled. It might even be a blessing in disguise as he is likely afforded a clean break while a demo derby unfolds to his inside. Vino is will be sitting behind the leaders and JV is likely to provide a solid ride. The pacers and closers are most likely going to go wide at some point for a passing lane anyway. Vino remains my top selection.

[Robert Fischer]

Post is actually a good fit for John Velazquez and Vino Rosso.

His strength as a rider is playing the outside on an extended sprint/1-turnMile and letting the pace set up in front of him.

The Derby is not an extended sprint, but there's about 2 furlongs before they hit the first turn turn.

This is also the established running style of Vino Rosso, so it seems like the most likely scenario.

He'll probably be 4-5 wide or so entering the first turn, but shouldn't be knocked-out unless the field bunches up unexpectedly.

The issue that Vino has, is that he'll have to wait his turn. Justify, and probably Bolt, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn and friends will get first run at this. Unless the pace comes back that's a disadvantage for the win... But it's possible that he's just the best, and none of the forwardly placed horses have what it takes to sustain a bid.

[f2tornado]

The issue that Vino has, is that he'll have to wait his turn. Justify, and probably Bolt, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn and friends will get first run at this. Unless the pace comes back that's a disadvantage for the win... But it's possible that he's just the best, and none of the forwardly placed horses have what it takes to sustain a bid.

Excellent note. And while Vino showed solid closing speed in the Wood it wasn't any better than the others you noted. He merely has the pedigree to sustain the run through an extra panel, has a Derby winning rider who can time the move properly, and has room to pop a big figure. He will need to settle in position without being more than about five lengths off the leaders at the 3/4 pole otherwise horses like Bolt and Justify seemingly showed enough late speed to come home.

The race usually doesn't run the way I envision. There's often a trainer or two trying new tactics. Even Baffert is seemingly training Justify to settle back a bit. I still figure PF will dart and Justify will basically inherit the next spot whether he wants it or not. If he breaks a step slow like he did his first two starts then Flameaway will get the spot. Bolt can show some early foot and I see him sitting just behind Justify once again. Good Magic should be in the vicinity as well. No excuses for these horses barring a bad bump at the break. The first 1/4 should be interesting as they string out then it will be a half mile jog. Most of the field runs slow early/fast late and will position themselves for the move between the 3/4 and mile pole. It smells like a nice setup for one of the horses sitting not too far behind the lead crew. Magic, Vino, and perhaps Audible come to mind.

[JustRalph]

I like the way Vino finished in the Wood, including the gallop out.

I have a strict rule of never betting a horse that was lugging in or out in their last race. But this horse seemed to recover from it very well, as if it wasn’t fatigue. Tough to read

[Blenheim]

VR needs a good pace and will probably get it.

However, if he is shuffled too far back early, he'll have to expend energy between the 4 and 6 to get position; expending energy between the 4 and 6 compromises his late kick. Critical for him to be sittin' tight at the 4.

[Grits]

It was Pletcher's Derby a lot of years.

Then, it wasn't.

About 2 minutes and change later. :pound:

[yankeelpn]

Playing a simple trifecta:
1. Vino Rosso, Enticed
2. Vino Rosso, Enticed
3. All = $36

[porchy44]

Brisnet has Vino Rosso as an (S4). Sustained running style with 4 speed points.
Does anyone happen to have at their disposal the last year A Derby winner had a "S" running style designated by Brisnet ?

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Did anyone mention Good Magic?

First, he's a Curlin (same as Vino Rossi). He is one of the horses with breeding that gives him a good shot at the distance. He used the same pattern last year to win the BC Juvenile. Two preps and then the big effort. Finally, his trainer, Chad Brown, is superb at bringing a horse to big races in top condition. He'll be on my tickets.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I also wanted to mention Solomini. He had all sorts of trouble in his last and should be monster odds. I don't think he's a winner, but I think he has a shot at one of the tri/super backhole spots.

I know I'm not going to put Justify on top, but I still don't have a final betting strategy. In any case it will include Good Magic and Solomini.

[groupie doll]

Brisnet has Vino Rosso as an (S4). Sustained running style with 4 speed points.
Does anyone happen to have at their disposal the last year A Derby winner had a "S" running style designated by Brisnet ?

Street Sense

[JustRalph]

It was Pletcher's Derby a lot of years.

Then, it wasn't.

About 2 minutes and change later. :pound:

Brutal! :lol::lol:

[coachv30]

I'm loving VR and Audible as well.

Closing Fractions

VR- 36.3 / 12.1 closing fractions
Audible- 36.4 / 12.2
Magnum Moon- 35.4 / 11.3 going away on the lead. However, Justify should be tough on the lead.

And...you can't discount a horse that won by 18 lengths last out against stakes company in Mendellson, just wish the PP's would show more.

My W/P money will be on VR and Audible with 7,10,14, and 16 in for minor spoils.

Best of Luck all!!:ThmbUp:

[LoneF]

Speaking of Trainers ...

A few days ago somebody ( can’t remember exactly who but they were a obvious graduate of the Spalding No! school of facts and accuracy ) called me a fool and than proceeded to state how Aiden O’Brien has only won one race on the dirt in his career.

I knew that was false but I wanted to do the research first before I corrected the record since I am such a stickler for having all my facts correct down to the smallest detail.

After a quick glance I see the number 725. That was not career wins, rather that was GRADED stakes wins. ( How many does Mick Ruis have 2 lol ? I believe he has driven more stables to bankruptcy than graded stakes wins but I digress ) I didn’t even bother checking how many thousands upon thousands of career wins he has but I am pretty sure more than 1 of them was on dirt ecspecially since on TVG today I saw him get two dirt wins in random international races.

Luckily I didn’t have to take the time to try and dig and go through all his career races since I glanced down to the next paragraph where they talked about his 14 Breeder Cup wins and 2 of those were on dirt .... So in just Breeder Cup races the one win on dirt propaganda is 100% false.

[Racetrack Playa]

Luckily I didn’t have to take the time ......
14 Breeder Cup wins and 2 of those were on dirt .... So in just Breeder Cup races the one win on dirt propaganda is 100% false.
14 seems high.
2001 BC was @ Belmont (Johannesburg won the Juvenile)
What is the other dirt win?

, Back to Pletch,
I figured he would get Calvin to ride something.Guess not.

[Spalding No!]

I didn’t even bother checking how many thousands upon thousands of career wins he has but I am pretty sure more than 1 of them was on dirt ecspecially since on TVG today I saw him get two dirt wins in random international races.
The 1 for 50 stat is for dirt races in the United States, not international.

Luckily I didn’t have to take the time to try and dig and go through all his career races since I glanced down to the next paragraph where they talked about his 14 Breeder Cup wins and 2 of those were on dirt .... So in just Breeder Cup races the one win on dirt propaganda is 100% false.
The first--and only--BC dirt win for Aiden O'Brien was Mendelssohn's grandsire Johannesburg in the 2001 BC Juvenile.

The "second" main track win was Man Of Iron, son of uber-dam Better Than Honour, in the BC Marathon, a race of dubious quality run on a synthetic surface.

After a quick glance I see the number 725. That was not career wins, rather that was GRADED stakes wins. ( How many does Mick Ruis have 2 lol ? I believe he has driven more stables to bankruptcy than graded stakes wins but I digress )
By the way, Mick Ruis owns all his own horses...

[LoneF]

14 seems high.
2001 BC was @ Belmont (Johannesburg won the Juvenile)
What is the other dirt win?

, Back to Pletch,
I figured he would get Calvin to ride something.Guess not.


The other dirt win was in 2009 with Man of Iron in the BC Marathon.

Actually 14 may or may not be the correct number. The article said he had 14 wins but when I tried to search for the 14 wins I could only find 12.

BC Turf = 6
BC Turf Juvenile = 4
BC Juvenile = 1
BC Marathon = 1

So not sure if article was a typo or I missed two somewhere when I looked ...

[LoneF]

The 1 for 50 stat is for dirt races in the United States, not international.


The first--and only--BC dirt win for Aiden O'Brien was Mendelssohn's grandsire Johannesburg in the 2001 BC Juvenile.

The "second" main track win was Man Of Iron, son of uber-dam Better Than Honour, in the BC Marathon, a race of dubious quality run on a synthetic surface.


By the way, Mick Ruis owns all his own horses...

I don’t think whether the BC Marathon was of dubious quality or not matters since it was a Breeders Cup race. You say that the race was ran on synthetic ... Do you care to expand on that claim ?

[Racetrack Playa]

I don’t think whether the BC Marathon was of dubious quality or not matters since it was a Breeders Cup race. You say that the race was ran on synthetic ... Do you care to expand on that claim ?
Santa Anita was an artificial track, yup
Dundalk (IRE) is also artificial

[GMB@BP]

Do you care to expand on that claim ?

u can watch it yourself

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qp1u9VGWPu0

[LoneF]

u can watch it yourself

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qp1u9VGWPu0

Ok the race was on synthetic but I am sure I can find one other win on dirt in America.

[Racetrack Playa]

Ok the race was on synthetic but I am sure I can find one other win on dirt in America.
Good Luck with that.

also _You said Aidan O'Brien had two wins on dirt 2day (international),
I don't think he did.

[LoneF]

Good Luck with that.

also _You said Aidan O'Brien had two wins on dirt 2day (international),
I don't think he did.

I saw when they flashed the results and in international racing they show the trainer.

Let’s see post time is 6:34 et on Saturday. Mendelssohn usually breaks track records by about 2 seconds so what are we looking at around 1:58 ... so at about 6:36 et I will get back to you about that 2nd win

Oh wait Justify will have to finish before they make the race official. He should be staggering on fumes across the finish line in what about 3:10 .... so I guess it will be about 6:37 et when I get back to you lol

[n.c]

Even after winning three major Kentucky Derby preps, Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez was in a stressful spot. Which horse would give him his best chance for a second consecutive Derby win and a third overall?

Soon after taking the Wood Memorial on Vino Rosso on April 7, Velazquez picked that colt over Florida Derby champion Audible and Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy. Audible is 4-for-5 lifetime, Noble Indy 3-for-4, and Vino Rosso 3-for-5.

“I believe he can get the [1¼-mile] distance,” Velazquez said after working him out Friday at Churchill Downs. “It was the distance I was looking for. It wasn’t an easy choice. They’re all good horses.

“I like the way Vino Rosso works in the mornings, and the way he gallops out better than the other two. He just keeps coming.”

[CincyHorseplayer]

I saw when they flashed the results and in international racing they show the trainer.

Let’s see post time is 6:34 et on Saturday. Mendelssohn usually breaks track records by about 2 seconds so what are we looking at around 1:58 ... so at about 6:36 et I will get back to you about that 2nd win

Oh wait Justify will have to finish before they make the race official. He should be staggering on fumes across the finish line in what about 3:10 .... so I guess it will be about 6:37 et when I get back to you lol

On that last paragraph I hope you are absolutely right. We need a break!

[LoneF]

Even after winning three major Kentucky Derby preps, Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez was in a stressful spot. Which horse would give him his best chance for a second consecutive Derby win and a third overall?

Soon after taking the Wood Memorial on Vino Rosso on April 7, Velazquez picked that colt over Florida Derby champion Audible and Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy. Audible is 4-for-5 lifetime, Noble Indy 3-for-4, and Vino Rosso 3-for-5.

“I believe he can get the [1¼-mile] distance,” Velazquez said after working him out Friday at Churchill Downs. “It was the distance I was looking for. It wasn’t an easy choice. They’re all good horses.

“I like the way Vino Rosso works in the mornings, and the way he gallops out better than the other two. He just keeps coming.”

So the jockey tells the trainer who he is going to ride ? lol

I would think JV needs Pletcher much more than the other way around. There are MANY jockeys who are younger and in their prime unlike JV who would jump at the chance to be the go to guy for Pletcher massive operation. Jockeys on the other hand are a dime a dozen !!

Either way after the post draw I bet he could take his choice back ...

[LoneF]

On that last paragraph I hope you are absolutely right. We need a break!

LOL

[CincyHorseplayer]

LOL

Seriously!As much as we've butted heads I am dying for Justify to finish up the course. We all start following these in late summer at least. Chalk finishes have been anticlimactic!

[GMB@BP]

Seriously!As much as we've butted heads I am dying for Justify to finish up the course. We all start following these in late summer at least. Chalk finishes have been anticlimactic!

If Justify wins I am going to shoot myself for not going. I have a personal interest in how he runs, I will be rooting for him (and me to lose so to speak).

That being said I will not use him in first and second in my trifecta play.

He could easily fill both those slots but with the issues with pace and foundation, and he will take at least 10% of all tri tickets, at least, if he runs out of the top two so he has to be played against.

If he does trip out (like a Smarty Jones trip) then I think he probably wins by open lengths.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If Justify wins I am going to shoot myself for not going. I have a personal interest in how he runs, I will be rooting for him (and me to lose so to speak).

That being said I will not use him in first and second in my trifecta play.

He could easily fill both those slots but with the issues with pace and foundation, and he will take at least 10% of all tri tickets, at least, if he runs out of the top two so he has to be played against.

If he does trip out (like a Smarty Jones trip) then I think he probably wins by open lengths.

I will use him in the 2 slot for a decent payout. I will likely play heavy in the exacta. Ticket cost if he wins. In tri and super am going to slim down and leave him off all 1-2-3-4 slots. I think he is going to run a hell of a race but if he doesn't he could be out of it and I want to cash in.

[Spalding No!]

So the jockey tells the trainer who he is going to ride ? lol
Ryan Moore told O'Brien who he was going to ride, too...

The gallop out is proving more impressive than the stretch run...

[GMB@BP]

Ryan Moore told O'Brien who he was going to ride, too...

The gallop out is proving more impressive than the stretch run...

lol, good one

[Raider]

[QUOTE=GMB@BP;2310748]If Justify wins I am going to SHOOT MYSELF for not going. I have a personal interest in how he runs, I will be rooting for him (and me to lose so to speak).

please use a water pistol, you can choose the ammo, then you can say you did it.