Undercard Locks

[PowerUpPaynter]

Lets jinx some horses on the undercard.

Ill go first. Race 9 :6: River Boyne can't lose. Will be a single for me in pick 3 and pick 4.

[PowerUpPaynter]

hopefully the undercard payouts are like 2016 last year was pretty much all chalk.


quick question. i know supers are $1 but a tri's .50?

[Andy Asaro]

Lets jinx some horses on the undercard.

Ill go first. Race 9 :6: River Boyne can't lose. Will be a single for me in pick 3 and pick 4.

Love the concept.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/FlyerTom23/status/991646656264331264

[jahura2]

Lets jinx some horses on the undercard.

Ill go first. Race 9 :6: River Boyne can't lose. Will be a single for me in pick 3 and pick 4.

Love this idea Paynter. Let me call Rushing Fall a lock in the 9th as well , then maybe we might have a chance to beat both of them.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Race 1: :6: Once On Whiskey

Hey, it's Cinco de Mayo and what a way to open the day!

[upthecreek]

hopefully the undercard payouts are like 2016 last year was pretty much all chalk.


quick question. i know supers are $1 but a tri's .50?

YES! (scroll down to the bottom)

https://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-wagering/toteboard/post-times

[Robert Fischer]

Man...

Like a naive countryman, I don't have any locks

*ducks rotten tomatoes*:blush:


back to the show: Mississippi JUMPS OFF THE PAGE :eek: as a value.
10/1 ML and the public is not going to account for his trip last time. I guess you can call it 'subtle' (I wouldn't call it subtle), but it's not the type of trip that is obvious to the public, and he's somewhat under the radar to begin with.

Drew post 9 with that short run to the first turn. 'Brisk'(not as hard as 'hard' but harder than 'kept busy' and much harder than 'allowed to settle') ride from the gate to ensure a chance to get over. About the 3-path entering the first turn(every bit of ground loss into that turn counts @ GP.)

He was neck and neck with Audible following the break.

As that insane pace duel developed up ahead

Combination of JV's wisdom and Audible's lazyness sent them along at a perfect approach. For reference,, Bris has them 95/105 E1 E2
Mississippi and Leparoux did not adapt, chasing about 4 lengths ahead of Audible, and they were the first to tackle the leaders when they eventually weakened. For reference Mississippi registered 107,107 E1 E2


Done nothing so far in his career to make me feel he's a lock in a field that has REstoring Hope(had a trip of his own in the Wood, but will not be overlooked by the public), and Mask and others, but at 10/1 with that kind of value-laden trip, Mississippi seems like a vertical exotics key

[TheGarMan]

Mississippi JUMPS OFF THE PAGE :eek: as a value.
10/1 ML and the public is not going to account for his trip last time. I guess you can call it 'subtle' (I wouldn't call it subtle), but it's not the type of trip that is obvious to the public, and he's somewhat under the radar to begin with.

Drew post 9 with that short run to the first turn. 'Brisk'(not as hard as 'hard' but harder than 'kept busy' and much harder than 'allowed to settle') ride from the gate to ensure a chance to get over. About the 3-path entering the first turn(every bit of ground loss into that turn counts @ GP.)



I thought the same...

When I saw "Mississippi 10/1" , I thought maybe I was thinking of another horse.. :D

I hope he flies under the radar and hits for us at a price.

[PhantomOnTour]

Pat Day Mile R10...gimme Pletcher and the #1 National Flag
4-1 ML is fine with me

[f2tornado]

I prefer the term best bet. I have bet on a lot of horses I thought were "locks" only to have them finish second or worse.

Race 5: :8: McCracken - This horse is 4 for 5 at the track and the one miss was last year's Derby which is easily forgiven. Speed figures top the field. The only reservation is layoff since October.

Race 11: :10: Beach Patrol - This one is head and shoulders above the rest. Chad Brown is red hot. Only reservation, like McCracken, is the layoff. Even if he misfires he is extremely likely to hit the trifecta.

[omalley]

I agree with Beach Patrol but I will place modest bet on#7 Synchrony which I will include in my pick 3.

[jay68802]

Pat Day Mile R10...gimme Pletcher and the #1 National Flag
4-1 ML is fine with me

And here I thought that that race was one of the tougher ones. Good luck. You should get close to those odds also.

[f2tornado]

Pat Day Mile R10...gimme Pletcher and the #1 National Flag
4-1 ML is fine with me

The rail was red hot Wednesday, winning 6 of 10 races on the card. Today's card started off with another rail win. Crazy.

[minethatbird08]

Man...

Like a naive countryman, I don't have any locks

*ducks rotten tomatoes*:blush:


back to the show: Mississippi JUMPS OFF THE PAGE :eek: as a value.
10/1 ML and the public is not going to account for his trip last time. I guess you can call it 'subtle' (I wouldn't call it subtle), but it's not the type of trip that is obvious to the public, and he's somewhat under the radar to begin with.

Drew post 9 with that short run to the first turn. 'Brisk'(not as hard as 'hard' but harder than 'kept busy' and much harder than 'allowed to settle') ride from the gate to ensure a chance to get over. About the 3-path entering the first turn(every bit of ground loss into that turn counts @ GP.)

He was neck and neck with Audible following the break.

As that insane pace duel developed up ahead

Combination of JV's wisdom and Audible's lazyness sent them along at a perfect approach. For reference,, Bris has them 95/105 E1 E2
Mississippi and Leparoux did not adapt, chasing about 4 lengths ahead of Audible, and they were the first to tackle the leaders when they eventually weakened. For reference Mississippi registered 107,107 E1 E2


Done nothing so far in his career to make me feel he's a lock in a field that has REstoring Hope(had a trip of his own in the Wood, but will not be overlooked by the public), and Mask and others, but at 10/1 with that kind of value-laden trip, Mississippi seems like a vertical exotics key

I agree with Mississippi jumping off the page. Unfortunately in my experience these types always get bet way down. You think you find a gem but everybody else sees the same thing. Hopefully, I’m wrong.

[Afleet]

I agree with Mississippi jumping off the page. Unfortunately in my experience these types always get bet way down. You think you find a gem but everybody else sees the same thing. Hopefully, I’m wrong.

I agree; 5 or 6-1

[minethatbird08]

I remember Masochistic being a lock a year or so ago when his jockey was busted for not riding and he somehow made the KD undercard with Espinoza up. I think he was 2-1 but it was a total steal, he won by 14 .

I'm not aware of any shenanigans like that this year.

[Afleet]

Imperial Hint

[clicknow]

Lets jinx some horses on the undercard.
Ill go first. Race 9 :6: River Boyne can't lose. Will be a single for me in pick 3 and pick 4.
Love this idea Paynter. Let me call Rushing Fall a lock in the 9th as well , then maybe we might have a chance to beat both of them.

I kinda love Untamed Domain. 1-1/16th is pretty short for him though.... I guess this would be more of a tightener for him for the 1.2 million, 1-1/4 mile Belmont Derby on July 7, since he's been off for a while. Love this guy's breeding.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Maybe not a lock, but a 'Key' horse.

R11 Turf Classic

:5: Channel Maker

[Redboard]

hopefully the undercard payouts are like 2016 last year was pretty much all chalk.


..................

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding your statement but last year the payouts were pretty good. L year, from races 6 to 11, only two favorites won and a couple winners were over 10-1:

Race 6 – 2017 HUMANA DISTAFF STAKES: Paulassilverlining 5-2 (3rd of 7)
Race 7 - 2017 CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE STAKES : Roca Rojo 6-5 (fav of 8)
Race 8 - 2017 PAT DAY MILE STAKES: Wild Shot 8-1 (4th of 13)
Race 9 - 2017 AMERICAN TURF STAKES: Arklow 15-1 (8th of 11)
Race 10 - 2017 CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES: Limousine Liberal 13-1 (6th of 14)
Race 11 - 2017 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic: Divisidero 7-2 (fav of 11)

$0.50 Pick 3(races 10,11 & 12) – $207.50
$0.50 Pick 4(races 9, 10,11 & 12) – $3,441.40
$0.50 Pick 5 (races 8, 9, 10,11 & 12) – $50,063.35
$2 Pick 6 (races 7 thru 12) (5 of 6) – $1,815.80
$2 Pick 6 (6 of 6) – $875,335.40

[Redboard]

Lets jinx some horses on the undercard.

Ill go first. Race 9 :6: River Boyne can't lose. Will be a single for me in pick 3 and pick 4.

That's a bold prediction there, considering Chad Brown's undefeated filly, :12: Rushing Fall, with JJ aboard, will be flying late. Good luck.

My single in the sequence will be :3: Imperial Hint in Race 8.

[LemonSoupKid]

The fields are so deep it's hard to talk about locks but I, like the above guys, will have a couple pick 6 tickets with Imperiant Hint singled.

I'm fairly heavily weighted on :6:River Boyne too, and it's funny I handicapped Untamed Domain second on first pass, then going back I was smacked in the face by :12:Rushing Fall too. I began to add him back into tickets. National Flag did stand out to me too, was sorta surprised about how little handicappers have talked about him; the ML apparently knows he's got talent.

My top choices are :3::6::7: w :3: w :6: w :1::12: w :7::10: w :5::7::11:

Of course, these are the most weighted, obviously the key to winning huge tickets like this is to have constructed a few outs with your singles. The Derby angle for a multi-race wager is super interesting, it is really hard to come down on 1 or 2 for such a weird race, but if you do feel strongly about Justify for example, even if he goes off as the favorite you still are cashing a big ticket in which many other people were spreading huge on these deep fields.

Good luck everyone.

[GMB@BP]

The rail was red hot Wednesday, winning 6 of 10 races on the card. Today's card started off with another rail win. Crazy.

rail very good

there are some decent paces early so should have a good idea

I will be looking at the 5th race closely, that race has to fall apart. I know McCraken will be a well backed horse due to the setup but his trainer is awful with these layoffs and at 5/2 I just cannot take him. He can win though.

I like Dazzling Gem with a bit of Behavioral Bias.

[Redboard]

R6: :1: , :2: , :3: , :8:
R7: :1: , :3: , :5: , :9:
R8: :3:
R9: :12:
R10: :5: , :7: , :8: , :12:
R11: :3: , :7: , :9: , :10:
R12: :7:

Remember, all pick3s , pick4s & pick5s today are $0.50 minimum. The pick6 is still $2, but besides that, I can play all the rolling pick3s plus the pick4 & pick5 for around $50.
For the individual races I like to pound the exacta, which costs a lot more.


Good luck!

[sammy the sage]

R6: :1: , :2: , :3: , :8:
R7: :1: , :3: , :5: , :9:
R8: :3:
R9: :12:
R10: :5: , :7: , :8: , :12:
R11: :3: , :7: , :9: , :10:
R12: :7:

Remember, all pick3s , pick4s & pick5s today are $0.50 minimum. The pick6 is still $2, but besides that, I can play all the rolling pick3s plus the pick4 & pick5 for around $50.
For the individual races I like to pound the exacta, which costs a lot more.


Good luck!

FYI...the 12 rushing fall...in the 9th race...ran Fri. and finished 2nd...jtyltk

[dirt]

Race 7 #6

Race 9 #10

Race 11 #9

[depalma113]

Race 8 :5: Outplay