Derby Longshot

[Buckeye]

Flameaway was 42-1 in pool 4 . . .

Sounds reasonable.

[minethatbird08]

Flameaway was 42-1 in pool 4 . . .

Sounds reasonable.

I like Flameaway a lot but don't think he will get the distance.

[Spalding No!]

Much better chance to win the Pat Day Mile, but Lone Sailor has few things going for him that could land him a placing.

Breezing like a freight train in last 3 works, all at Churchill.

Has a couple of better than looked races over Churchill Downs main track, waiting behind horses while full of run in the Street Sense (lost by a head) and getting bothered by a fallen rival on the first turn of the Kentucky Jockey Club (rallied late in the middle of the track to get by tired ones).

Also owns a sloppy track romp when breaking his maiden at Saratoga (I think the weather forecast might have suggested rain?).

Also, possibly has the best bottom side if you follow pedigrees. 4th dam is the blue hen mare Courtly Dee (I think every female descendant from her has black type in both its race record and produce record).

[clicknow]

Courtly Dee

there are some excellent broodmare of the years in the lineage of some of the derby runners this year. Courtly Dee being one of course. Mendelssohn's Leslie Lady, and the great Oatsee, Shackleford's dam for Promises Fulfilled.
Something I always look for first, trying to find the elite runners before the prep races are run.

This really is a pretty nice group of horses this year!

[Robert Fischer]

He's a good horse and he's going to be a BIG price. :ThmbUp:

I like Flameaway a lot but don't think he will get the distance.

That's kind of my feeling. I might have him in the Top-10 on pure quality, but he seems to need a forward-favoring soft pace to hit the board going 10 furlongs vs a Derby field.


I may throw together a couple 'scenario' tickets. One with some priced pace-pressers and one with some priced closers.

[nijinski]

Keeping an eye on Hofburg
Love the breeding and the connections .for the classic distance .

[Spalding No!]

there are some excellent broodmare of the years in the lineage of some of the derby runners this year. Courtly Dee being one of course. Mendelssohn's Leslie Lady, and the great Oatsee, Shackleford's dam for Promises Fulfilled.
Something I always look for first, trying to find the elite runners before the prep races are run.

This really is a pretty nice group of horses this year!
The longshots in this year's field as a whole seem to hold an edge over the favorites in terms of the deeper bloodlines.

In addition to Lone Sailor and Courtly Dee (Althea, Bayern, Arch, Atelier, Twining etc.):

Instilled Regard's 4th dam is the Phipps Stable's Blitey (Dancing Spree, Heavenly Prize, Pure Prize, Dancing Forever, etc.).

Hofburg's 4th dam is the Niarchos foundation mare Coup de Folie (Machiavellian, Coup de Genie, Denebola, Bago, etc.).

Combatant's 4th dam is top Canadian Broodmare of the Year Fanfreluche (L'Enjoleur, La Voyageuse, Medaille D'Or, Holy Roman Emperor, et.c).

From a whole pedigree standpoint, you could do a lot worse than:

Hofburg - sired by Tapit over the Coup de Folie family. In the past 4 runnings of the Belmont, Tapit is responsible for 3 wins and 2 placings.

Instilled Regard - sired by Arch, so he crosses Courtly Dee with Blitey.

[depalma113]

Solomini

He's a Curlin. He's the other Baffert. He's hit the board in every start.

[upthecreek]

https://www.usracing.com/kentucky-derby/props

Some interesting props

[SkunkApe]

https://www.usracing.com/kentucky-derby/props

Some interesting props

Yes. Interesting.

I might go to Vegas for the Derby next year.

[PoloUK6108]

Noble Indy, Flo is on fire. The dark Pletch :cool:

[clicknow]

I assume everyone is basing this on a dry track, right?

My wet track picks would be entirely different. I haven't looked at weather report, but I got my mudders lined up just in case.

[PhantomOnTour]

Enticed

[PaceAdvantage]

Keeping an eye on Hofburg
Love the breeding and the connections .for the classic distance .Hey there! Good to see your name here again! :ThmbUp::)

[Secondbest]

I assume everyone is basing this on a dry track, right?

My wet track picks would be entirely different. I haven't looked at weather report, but I got my mudders lined up just in case.

Long range forecast is for sunny skies

[minethatbird08]

https://www.usracing.com/kentucky-derby/props

Some interesting props

I Can't believe they are giving 1.95-1 on gates 11-20. Seems like a good bet before post draw and if you can wager after post positions it could be a must play if you can get Justify at nearly 2-1 with 9 others.

Anyone have any experience with this organization? Seriously considering making an account.

[n.c]

“I think it's a fair assessment that the Fairgrounds horses have not done that well in the Kentucky Derby. I think this year, for either of those horses, we're talking Noble Indy for Todd Pletcher, who won the Derby, as well as Lone Sailor, who was barely beaten by him. I think both of those horses would need to step up to the competition in the Kentucky Derby,” he said.

The Majestic Warrior colt posted a stunning 5-furlong work at Churchill Downs in 57 seconds and 3/5 – that’s right 57 seconds.

“But I think the final time was probably accurate, but again, I know it's gonna get a lot of attention but this horse has always been a very good workhorse,” Amoss said. “It's just that now, we're under a microscope and everybody's watching. And they're seeing something that's been there all along. So, I'm not trying to downplay it. It was a very good work here at Churchill Downs and he likes this track.”

[f2tornado]

Perhaps just a fluke but Louisiana Derby horses with one of the special conduit mares and/or Buckpasser-x have fared well hitting the board in Kentucky. Golden Soul, Revolutionary, Commanding Curve, Gun Runner... we shall see with Lone Sailor who has Countess Wanda in tail. Battle of Midway out of the Santa Anita had one of those via Court Dress last year and helped blow up the trifecta.

[n.c]

the exacta or tri with favs on top

Solomini at 20-1, Flameawa 40-1y, Hofburg 30-1 and Free Drop 40-1


All 4 of these horses have finished behind top 7 derby favs, few lengths back

IF 1 one of these horses improves you could possibly hit the exacta or tri

JUstify+Magnum+Mend+Good M+Bolt+Audi+Vino over the long shots
at the 2 and 3 spot
.50 cent tri at 84 dollars
2 dollar ex at 56 dollars

Audible and Vino about the same odds, you can eliminate 1 of them by checking the odds, which one is live and which one is not. IF one of them is 8-1 and the other at 16-1, go with the 8-1.
This way you have 6 at the top vs 7.

[n.c]

1 or 2 of the favs might get bad posts, so you could throw out 1 or 2 more horses. This way you can key 4-5 horses at the top, and bring down the betting amount.
:headbanger:

[chiguy]

Keeping an eye on Hofburg
Love the breeding and the connections .for the classic distance .

I have been on Combatant as my long shot but I have to say after watching this guy's last couple I am pretty impressed. If he moves up again I think he wins. He has a great style for the type of race I think we are going to see and he will be steaming home.

[f2tornado]

I have been on Combatant as my long shot but I have to say after watching this guy's [Hofburg] last couple I am pretty impressed. If he moves up again I think he wins. He has a great style for the type of race I think we are going to see and he will be steaming home.

He drew a nice post for his style. He can drop back a little without losing much ground. The horses to his in and out are pretty much the same style. He's ran wide his previous two trips and has room to pop in his third start this year. At a minimum, he will definitely see play in my vertical gimmicks.

[clicknow]

I haven't looked at the post positions yet, but early this morning, before the post draw, going by many of my own weird angles, one of my "go for value" tickets will look like this:

Top keys: Mendelssohn, Lone Sailor, Enticed

Haven't figured out what to do with Instilled Regard yet, so may slot him in somewhere, but will be slowly filling out the rest of my ticket for the tri and superfecta after analyzinig post positions. That will be hard part.

If only playing Exacta, my 3 top ones repeated in 2nd place, along with Bolt, Vino, Audible, Justify, My Boy Jack, and Hofburg.

[tjfla]

Talking about Derby LS

Does anyone use the Super Screener thing? Keep hearing the guy bragging about it but u have to Buy it to get his TOP LS

Is this legit or??

[clicknow]

Audible and Vino about the same odds, you can eliminate 1 of them by checking the odds, which one is live and which one is not. IF one of them is 8-1 and the other at 16-1, go with the 8-1.


VERY difficult to separate these 2 for an exotics ticket.

[clicknow]

I have been on Combatant as my long shot but I have to say after watching this guy's last couple I am pretty impressed. If he moves up again I think he wins. He has a great style for the type of race I think we are going to see and he will be steaming home.

I might use him like a Colonel John.....2nd or 4th.

[Boris]

the exacta or tri with favs on top

Solomini at 20-1, Flameawa 40-1y, Hofburg 30-1 and Free Drop 40-1


All 4 of these horses have finished behind top 7 derby favs, few lengths back

IF 1 one of these horses improves you could possibly hit the exacta or tri

JUstify+Magnum+Mend+Good M+Bolt+Audi+Vino over the long shots
at the 2 and 3 spot
.50 cent tri at 84 dollars
2 dollar ex at 56 dollars

Audible and Vino about the same odds, you can eliminate 1 of them by checking the odds, which one is live and which one is not. IF one of them is 8-1 and the other at 16-1, go with the 8-1.
This way you have 6 at the top vs 7.

Free Drop went off at 7-1 in the BC Juvy and was the fav in the Gotham. Broke his maiden at first asking over the CD dirt. Now he is 30-1. Given the post and Albarado back in the saddle, he"ll be more forwardly placed from the gate. Was not catching GM in the Blue Grass, but was running well when he was body checked. I'll play him and should get some good root for my money.

[n.c]

Free drop, Combatant, Enticed, and Promises Full,

[LoneF]

I Can't believe they are giving 1.95-1 on gates 11-20. Seems like a good bet before post draw and if you can wager after post positions it could be a must play if you can get Justify at nearly 2-1 with 9 others.

Anyone have any experience with this organization? Seriously considering making an account.

I don’t understand why take 1.95 - 1 on Mendelssohn when you can cash 4 or 5 -1 on him just betting the traditional way ...

Am I missing something ?

[LoneF]

I have been on Combatant as my long shot but I have to say after watching this guy's last couple I am pretty impressed. If he moves up again I think he wins. He has a great style for the type of race I think we are going to see and he will be steaming home.

I can see Spalding No! took my advice and started passing the bong !!!

[Wiley]

Free Drop went off at 7-1 in the BC Juvy and was the fav in the Gotham. Broke his maiden at first asking over the CD dirt. Now he is 30-1. Given the post and Albarado back in the saddle, he"ll be more forwardly placed from the gate. Was not catching GM in the Blue Grass, but was running well when he was body checked. I'll play him and should get some good root for my money.

I'm in. Horse loves CD is bred to run all day and doesn't care about running in company, is one tough dude. Nice middle move in the Bluegrass, agree he was finding his "Best stride late" when stopped.

Romans set his sights on a Derby win with this guy and he is primed to run his best with a traditional conditioning foundation. Works are solid, wanting to do more, with great gallop outs.

Might not be fast enough to win it, but when others are stopping and looking for a nap, he should still be rolling and getting into high gear.

Not sure if you get 30-1 on him with the Romans connection, but I will take it. Good Magic is a similar kind of runner. Looks like a cold exacta box for me with a little more of Billy on top. Good luck.

[gm10]

Blended Citizen if he gets in. Mainly for the lower spots in the tri/super.

[clicknow]

I may be the only one but I really like Lone Sailor. Hofburg, too, but his odds will not be anywhere near as good.

[nijinski]

Hey there! Good to see your name here again! :ThmbUp::)

Thank You PA . Had some moves and big life changes but miss being here and hope
To be back more .

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:9: Hofburg and :18: Vino Rosso will be high on many lists as LS upsetters, but I see them as both being simply 'adders' to Tris or Supers.

If I'm stretching and looking for a bomb in this loaded Derby, I'm looking squarely at 2 horses.

:15: Instilled Regard
:19: Noble Indy

[plainolebill]

:12: Enticed
:9: Hofburg

[metro]

Free Drop went off at 7-1 in the BC Juvy and was the fav in the Gotham. Broke his maiden at first asking over the CD dirt. Now he is 30-1. Given the post and Albarado back in the saddle, he"ll be more forwardly placed from the gate. Was not catching GM in the Blue Grass, but was running well when he was body checked. I'll play him and should get some good root for my money.

Romans would have been a lot better served putting Lanerie on Free Drop Billy and keeping Albarado on Promises Fulfilled. Corey hasn't ridden either but is much better suited on a horse like FDB than Robby is.

[upthecreek]

#:10: MyboyJack with Kent D.........................

[Lemon Drop Husker]

#:10: MyboyJack with Kent D.........................

His Sheets numbers are pretty solid. I just hate how he hung in the lone 9F race he ran.

[Redboard]

I agree with UpTheCreek, although he only beat me here by a couple of minutes.
Derby longshot winners have usually been closers, e.g., Sea Hero, Giacomo, Mine That Bird, so I'm going with 30-1 :10: My Boy Jack who has the highest Late Timeform pace rating in the field.

He'll need help up front, to say the least.

[upthecreek]

I agree with UpTheCreek, although he only beat me here by a couple of minutes.
Derby longshot winners have usually been closers, e.g., Sea Hero, Giacomo, Mine That Bird, so I'm going with 30-1 :10: My Boy Jack who has the highest Late Timeform pace rating in the field.

He'll need help up front, to say the least.
Agreeing with me is never a good thing:lol:

[Vinnie]

In a total pace meltdown, is he good enough? Getting a lot of love on the board right now from a M/L of 30 to 1 he is currently 5 to 1. WOW!!

[BlueChip@DRF]

#:10: MyboyJack with Kent D.........................

Now he's tied as 2nd choice in the betting. Someone must really love the way you pick horses!

[MadVindication]

Long shots (30-1 or better odds) I'm wheeling in are Promises Fulfilled, Free Drop Billy, Flameaway, Bravazo, My Boy Jack. I'm going heavy on Bravazo. Excluded him before but took a good second glance and, as long shots go, I don't think there's any good reason to exclude him other than he's lost races to other young horses (and his pedigree can mean he's a "late bloomer"). Personally, I like Bravazo's inconsistencies as a betting factor. Same with Promises but the fading out of stamina is a logical concern. But Promises had too short time between races I think is part reason for the 9th in Florida Derby.

[keithw84]

I'm liking Enticed. I think he ran just a little too close to the pace in the Wood and was used up, but he still held on for second. Rate him a little more like in the Gotham, which had a similar pace setup if I remember correctly, and I think he is fangerous.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I think if Solomini ever learned how to break sharply, not get trapped behind horses and change leads in the stretch he'd be a good bet. But what the hell. I'll find a spot for him on a ticket anyway.

[Spalding No!]

His Sheets numbers are pretty solid. I just hate how he hung in the lone 9F race he ran.

My Boy Jack received perhaps one of the worst rides on the Derby trail. Not only did he launch a ridiculously prolonged 3 (or maybe more) furlong move after losing contact with the field early, but he also was asked to circle the field and go 9-wide into one of the longest stretches in North America. It is no shock that he hung inside in the 1/16th pole.

At the very least, Desormeaux could have tried to thread his way between horses, as he was at least a half a dozen lengths behind the second-to-last horse down the back stretch.

The above may be moot in the end, however, as Desormeaux retains the mount and there is little to stop him doing the exact same thing tomorrow.

[depalma113]

At the very least, Desormeaux could have tried to thread his way between horses, as he was at least a half a dozen lengths behind the second-to-last horse down the back stretch.

The above may be moot in the end, however, as Desormeaux retains the mount and there is little to stop him doing the exact same thing tomorrow.

When was the last time Desormeaux went inside in a large field to pass horses on a closer? Is his age a factor and he just doesn't have the courage to do it anymore?

[keithw84]

Kent loves to move early. Thinking back to Real Quiet in the Belmont.

[BlueChip@DRF]

WTF? My Boy Jack is 2nd choice????

[f2tornado]

WTF? My Boy Jack is 2nd choice????

And, he's by far the first choice in the Place and Show pools as of this writing. If he misses the show pool then you will get paid well playing in it.

[Robert Fischer]

WTF? My Boy Jack is 2nd choice????

Why wouldn't you bet him? He's 30/1 and he's been the most popular closer....
30/1 and may hit the board...
Same connections as Exaggerator.



Sometimes people commit to what they are going to do in these big races.


If he was viewed as 5-1 he'd be less popular. 'Everyone' decided he was an attractive long shot.

In reality he's a bad underlay and merely one of many who have a chance for a belated 3rd/4th.

[Robert Fischer]

:12: Enticed isn't going to beat a Justify 'A' race, but if Justify falters, he has a fair shot.
55-1 and he's the 'sleeper' He doesn't look like a 2nd-tier contender, yet, he is.

high knee action and all...


When you really start to 'reach' for luck with more things that have to happen;
:3: Promises Fulfilled - Not good enough, but if the pace is very forward-favoring he belongs in the superfecta. 47/1

:4: Flameaway - same forward-favoring scenario... 50/1


pace collapse

:17: Solomini - even if he changes leads, he's not good enough, but a good trip puts him in the 3rd-tier and he's 65/1

:15: Instilled Regard - he's likely to finish somewhere between 3rd and 12th. If he runs his normal 'lug-in' it's more like 10th. If he runs like he's been training more like 4th or 3rd.. If Moses parts the pace collapse :eek: ... 99/1

[elysiantraveller]

I like Enticed for a piece and will be using Good Magic moving up 3rd back.

I'll be arranging with the Santa Anita duo.

[upthecreek]

I agree with UpTheCreek, although he only beat me here by a couple of minutes.
Derby longshot winners have usually been closers, e.g., Sea Hero, Giacomo, Mine That Bird, so I'm going with 30-1 :10: My Boy Jack who has the highest Late Timeform pace rating in the field.

He'll need help up front, to say the least.
I warned you LOL You were"Creeked":lol: