The Caris/Depalma Angle

[Blenheim]

Caris: My angle is as follows: A colt must achieve the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less or run the final eighth of a mile in 12 4/5 or less. And also must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep. Here are the qualifiers this year: Audible, Bolt DOro, Hofburg, justify, Vino Rosso, My Boy Jack, Noble Indy, Magnum Moon and Combatant.


Depalma: 9 of the last 10 Derby winners have ran the opening half mile of their 1 and 1/8 mile prep in less than :47 2/5. Only Orb did not.


Caris comments on Depalma: “Depalmas stat is very interesting in that it eliminates all the heavy hitters in this Derby and only a few make the grade of 47 2/5 or less: Noble Indy, Flameaway, Bravazo and Promises Fulfilled.”



Combining the angles, one horse still stands: Noble Indy. I keep thinkin’ this horse is gonna win it. This is an interesting new indicator. Interesting how combining the angles gives us an indicator of race shape and where a horse needs to be positioned to win.


Same as it ever was, the fastest horse early / the fastest horse late. Just need a good post.


:11:

[Gerard02]

You make a good point, Blen. If anyone can go back as far as 2000 to see if this pattern is there, we may be on to something.

[sbcaris]

Here is an interesting tidbit of information: From 1992-2017 there were 12 Ky Derby winners who did their first four furlongs of a 9 furlong prep in 47 3/5 or slower:

Lil E Tee, Sea Hero, Go For Gin, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Giacomo, Barbaro, Ill Have Another and Orb.

So that's almost 50% of the winners in the last 25 years that do 47 3/5 or slower.

Note: When I calculate the four furlong time I round 1/2 length to a full fifth of a second. For ex. when funny cide was 1 1/2 lengths behind the leader at four furlongs in 47 1/5 his time for 4 furlongs becomes 47 3/5.

[clicknow]

Combining the angles

This is why some people do "charts" and grade across as many angles as they feel appropriate. Grading on 20-30 angles.

Not sure that grading on only "2" angles would really yield much of dependable outcome.

[Gerard02]

Here is an interesting tidbit of information: From 1992-2017 there were 12 Ky Derby winners who did their first four furlongs of a 9 furlong prep in 47 3/5 or slower:

Lil E Tee, Sea Hero, Go For Gin, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Giacomo, Barbaro, Ill Have Another and Orb.

So that's almost 50% of the winners in the last 25 years that do 47 3/5 or slower.

Note: When I calculate the four furlong time I round 1/2 length to a full fifth of a second. For ex. when funny cide was 1 1/2 lengths behind the leader at four furlongs in 47 1/5 his time for 4 furlongs becomes 47 3/5.

If you ever had to include that, would it be Indicator #4 and qualify on Indicator 1?

[Gerard02]

I beleive in 2008, 09, there were no qualifiers on final 3/8 and final 1/8. This new indicator saw the last 9 out of 10 derby winners qualify when they scored 37.8/12.8, respectively. I’m sure SbCaris will look into this more.

[Blenheim]

If you ever had to include that, would it be Indicator #4 and qualify on Indicator 1?

If qualifying as Indicator 1, any length[s] parameters?

[Gerard02]

If qualifying as Indicator 1, any length[s] parameters?

The no horse can lose 2 or more lengths from the 6f call to the finish, still would apply. Unless, Stan makes a change. His rules.

[sbcaris]

I don't include that angle in my checklist but the angle I think your talking about is as follows:

1) the runner must do 48 1/5 or less for the first 4 furlongs of 9 furlong big 6 prep race (SA Derby, Blue Grass, Florida Derby, Wood, Ark Derby or Louisiana Derby.

2) the runner must do 102 3/5 or less for the last 5 furlongs of that prep race.

3) the runner must not have lost ground from the 6 furlong call to finish of that prep

4)the runner must run first or second in its last start which is usually that prep

5)the runner must achieve a Beyer fig of 94 or higher in that 9 furlong prep

This year the qualifiers are Justify, Hofburg, Audible, and Lone Sailor.

I did an article all about this factor in last year's May issue of American Turf Monthly.

The impact value for this angle from 1992-2017 is very close to 3.61. These types win the Derby around 3 1/2 times more often than chance alone would dictate.

Although the above angle is not in my checklist I pay close attention to it when making my final decisions. An impact value of 3.61 is certainly lucrative.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't include that angle in my checklist but the angle I think your talking about is as follows:

1) the runner must do 48 1/5 or less for the first 4 furlongs of 9 furlong big 6 prep race (SA Derby, Blue Grass, Florida Derby, Wood, Ark Derby or Louisiana Derby.

2) the runner must do 102 3/5 or less for the last 5 furlongs of that prep race.

3) the runner must not have lost ground from the 6 furlong call to finish of that prep

4)the runner must run first or second in its last start which is usually that prep

5)the runner must achieve a Beyer fig of 94 or higher in that 9 furlong prep

This year the qualifiers are Justify, Hofburg, Audible, and Lone Sailor.

I did an article all about this factor in last year's May issue of American Turf Monthly.

The impact value for this angle from 1992-2017 is very close to 3.61. These types win the Derby around 3 1/2 times more often than chance alone would dictate.

Although the above angle is not in my checklist I pay close attention to it when making my final decisions. An impact value of 3.61 is certainly lucrative.

2.61 IV would be impressive. 3.61 is otherworldly!:ThmbUp:

[Blenheim]

Depalma: 9 of the last 10 Derby winners have ran the opening half mile of their 1 and 1/8 mile prep in less than :47 2/5. Only Orb did not.

Caris: A colt must achieve the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less or run the final eighth of a mile in 12 4/5 or less. And also must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep.

~

The Depalma tells us how fast the horse must run early, the Caris tells us how fast the horse must run late; the Caris gives lengths, the Depalma does not. Prior to adding the Depalma, we only had a picture of the last part of the race, adding the Depalma we can "see" the complete race picture.


I think its an interesting combination . . .


:11:

[Gerard02]

I’m going to pay close attention to it, as well. I’ll have to look back at my past issues and re read it. One question: I noticed that ATM has not published anything since, December 2017. I tried calling them, but no answer. Will you’re list be offered this year?

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't include that angle in my checklist but the angle I think your talking about is as follows:

1) the runner must do 48 1/5 or less for the first 4 furlongs of 9 furlong big 6 prep race (SA Derby, Blue Grass, Florida Derby, Wood, Ark Derby or Louisiana Derby.

2) the runner must do 102 3/5 or less for the last 5 furlongs of that prep race.

3) the runner must not have lost ground from the 6 furlong call to finish of that prep

4)the runner must run first or second in its last start which is usually that prep

5)the runner must achieve a Beyer fig of 94 or higher in that 9 furlong prep

This year the qualifiers are Justify, Hofburg, Audible, and Lone Sailor.

I did an article all about this factor in last year's May issue of American Turf Monthly.

The impact value for this angle from 1992-2017 is very close to 3.61. These types win the Derby around 3 1/2 times more often than chance alone would dictate.

Although the above angle is not in my checklist I pay close attention to it when making my final decisions. An impact value of 3.61 is certainly lucrative.

#2 leaves Noble Indy out as he finished in 103.6 right?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Caris: My angle is as follows: A colt must achieve the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less or run the final eighth of a mile in 12 4/5 or less. And also must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep. Here are the qualifiers this year: Audible, Bolt DOro, Hofburg, justify, Vino Rosso, My Boy Jack, Noble Indy, Magnum Moon and Combatant.


Depalma: 9 of the last 10 Derby winners have ran the opening half mile of their 1 and 1/8 mile prep in less than :47 2/5. Only Orb did not.


Caris comments on Depalma: “Depalmas stat is very interesting in that it eliminates all the heavy hitters in this Derby and only a few make the grade of 47 2/5 or less: Noble Indy, Flameaway, Bravazo and Promises Fulfilled.”



Combining the angles, one horse still stands: Noble Indy. I keep thinkin’ this horse is gonna win it. This is an interesting new indicator. Interesting how combining the angles gives us an indicator of race shape and where a horse needs to be positioned to win.


Same as it ever was, the fastest horse early / the fastest horse late. Just need a good post.


:11:

Noble Indy doesn't make it. He passes the 47.4 test but coming home in 38.8 he fails.

Of the winners none of them pass the 47.4 test except NI. Justify and Bolt hit 47.8 and 48.4. Magnum Moon 48.6. Good Magic 48.2. Vino 48.2. Audible 48. Noble Indy 46.8.

[Gerard02]

I’m really getting a kick out of you stat guys. This stuff is amazing. I just went over Stans article from last year and I’m kicking myself for not remembering it, or copyin it and pasting it into my derby notes. So, here is the next question for you guys. While we have a 62% hit rate for Stan’s derby winners with this angle, how many qualifiers finished in the money? Was it just the Derby winner, while any other qualifiers had their cheese hanging in the wind, or were these the only qualifiers? This i doubt, we have four for this year.

[sbcaris]

Gerard: 30 qualifiers finished first, second or third since 1992 with regard to this method. It hit 5 exactas in 21 years where more than one horse qualified.

[SkunkApe]

This here says Noble Indy's final 3/8 was 38.81 seconds...

Edit: Never mind. Already noted above by CincyHorsePlayer.


https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2018-2018-derby-data-how-fast-the-contenders-finished

[Blenheim]

This here says Noble Indy's final 3/8 was 38.81 seconds...

Edit: Never mind. Already noted above by CincyHorsePlayer.


https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2018-2018-derby-data-how-fast-the-contenders-finished

Caris: A colt must achieve the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less or run the final eighth of a mile in 12 4/5 or less. And also must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep.

Here are the qualifiers this year: Audible, Bolt DOro, Hofburg, justify, Vino Rosso, My Boy Jack, Noble Indy, Magnum Moon and Combatant.


Track variants provided by Caris:

Parson: the Louisiana Derby-------09
Wood Memorial----------------------05
Santa Anita Derby-------------------19
Florida Derby-------------------------14
Blue Grass----------------------------16
Arkansas Derby----------------------13

The above are the track variants for the prep races listed. The Wood was run over the fastest track and the SA Derby was the slowest track for prep races this year.


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143944&page=3


:11:

[Gerard02]

Gerard: 30 qualifiers finished first, second or third since 1992 with regard to this method. It hit 5 exactas in 21 years where more than one horse qualified.

Thanks, Stan. I have to get a program that sorts these stats out faster. Unfortunately, tech wise, I’m still in the 90’s. Thanks for the help.

[Gerard02]

I don't include that angle in my checklist but the angle I think your talking about is as follows:

1) the runner must do 48 1/5 or less for the first 4 furlongs of 9 furlong big 6 prep race (SA Derby, Blue Grass, Florida Derby, Wood, Ark Derby or Louisiana Derby.

2) the runner must do 102 3/5 or less for the last 5 furlongs of that prep race.

3) the runner must not have lost ground from the 6 furlong call to finish of that prep

4)the runner must run first or second in its last start which is usually that prep

5)the runner must achieve a Beyer fig of 94 or higher in that 9 furlong prep

This year the qualifiers are Justify, Hofburg, Audible, and Lone Sailor.

I did an article all about this factor in last year's May issue of American Turf Monthly.

The impact value for this angle from 1992-2017 is very close to 3.61. These types win the Derby around 3 1/2 times more often than chance alone would dictate.

Although the above angle is not in my checklist I pay close attention to it when making my final decisions. An impact value of 3.61 is certainly lucrative.

If you notice, old Bolty finished his half in 48.33. Mighty close and just short of the cutoff 48.2. I’m going to give him a little leeway on this angle as he qualifies for everything and just misses by a slither. I think he is going to be in the exotics.

[sbcaris]

Here is an interesting point about statistics related to the above method and many others:

Using the above method of 48 1/5 and 102 3/5 my research got 62.5% winners from 17.3% of the starters since 1992. The impact value of 3.62 is superior.

However, here comes the drawback. Although the method is a strong one that gets 62.5% winners, it also gets 37.5% losers. So one can say that for every 10 Ky Derbies the method gets close to 4 losers and around 6 winners.

I've done tons of research developing statistics that provide handicappers with an edge and I stick to that research in my handicapping. You have to be willing to take the bad results with the good results over time. Figures don't lie, but liars do a lot of figuring.

[Gerard02]

Here is an interesting point about statistics related to the above method and many others:

Using the above method of 48 1/5 and 102 3/5 my research got 62.5% winners from 17.3% of the starters since 1992. The impact value of 3.62 is superior.

However, here comes the drawback. Although the method is a strong one that gets 62.5% winners, it also gets 37.5% losers. So one can say that for every 10 Ky Derbies the method gets close to 4 losers and around 6 winners.

I've done tons of research developing statistics that provide handicappers with an edge and I stick to that research in my handicapping. You have to be willing to take the bad results with the good results over time. Figures don't lie, but liars do a lot of figuring.

That’s why I bought your books, Stan. You’ve helped me hit the Triple Crown races much better. You also got me to sharpen my figuring. You got the stuff. I still owe you dinner, if we ever meet. What I need to look Into is a program that speeds up my research without having to load up multiple sites.

[Gerard02]

Going back to 2000, I noticed that Horses that qualified on the final 3/8 final 1/8th, RAN and/or Buckpasser X won the Derby. If someone wants to verify this, please do. American Pharoah was the only RAN in 2015. combine with the 48 1/5th angle:
:9::5::11::20: 18 qualify on the combined angles.