Overthinking

[Mc990]

Bolt and Justify lay over the field on Timeform and they look solid on TG and Ragozin as well... (even better if you're inclined to toss the horses who look to bounce).

I'm just amazed at the amount of overthinking I'm seeing when I really believe we have two standouts.

I suppose I'd give a slight chance to Good Magic who will probably run his race but I'm just not sure 10 furlongs moves him up (Chad has had a couple recent derby starters with very similar profiles).

I expect Solomini to run well as he looks ready for a new top but he starts out much slower.

I think one of the horses with 5-6 weeks coming in, could fire a big one fresh but it probably still wouldn't be good enough if one of the top two run their race. Lone Sailor would probably be my pick of the bunch... man did Desormeaux ever botch it for My Boy Jack, the play was to lay out for 6 weeks and wait for defections... hard to see him as a factor now.

Good luck to all

[Blenheim]

Bolt and Justify lay over the field on Timeform and they look solid on TG and Ragozin as well... (even better if you're inclined to toss the horses who look to bounce).

I'm just amazed at the amount of overthinking I'm seeing when I really believe we have two standouts.

I suppose I'd give a slight chance to Good Magic who will probably run his race but I'm just not sure 10 furlongs moves him up (Chad has had a couple recent derby starters with very similar profiles).

I expect Solomini to run well as he looks ready for a new top but he starts out much slower.

I think one of the horses with 5-6 weeks coming in, could fire a big one fresh but it probably still wouldn't be good enough if one of the top two run their race. Lone Sailor would probably be my pick of the bunch... man did Desormeaux ever botch it for My Boy Jack, the play was to lay out for 6 weeks and wait for defections... hard to see him as a factor now.

Good luck to all


I like that Bolt d'Oro horse, particularly his last work. However, the best horse doesn't always win, depends on how the race is run - the race shape. The best of em' have fallen victim to pace. It takes a true class stand out to overcome all the problems associated with this type of race, It'll be interesting to see if Bolt is the type. I like his chances.

Simple enough . . .

~

Thanks for the luck, I'm gonna need it!

[LoneF]

Chad Brown seems to be VERY happy with Good Magic’s latest work. He says it was “outstanding” and “perfect” and says all systems are go for the horse to run his best race of his life in the KY Derby.

No reason to overthink it ....

Your winner comes from these 5 horses ....

Mendelssohn
Magnum Moon
Audible
Good Magic
Hofburg

It’s badically all about Pletcher, the Ortiz brothers and the outstanding class and ability of Mendelssohn.

[Mc990]

Chad Brown seems to be VERY happy with Good Magic’s latest work. He says it was “outstanding” and “perfect” and says all systems are go for the horse to run his best race of his life in the KY Derby.

No reason to overthink it ....

Your winner comes from these 5 horses ....

Mendelssohn
Magnum Moon
Audible
Good Magic
Hofburg

It’s badically all about Pletcher, the Ortiz brothers and the outstanding class and ability of Mendelssohn.

Differing opinions are what makes this game great but I strongly believe you have to play Mend to bounce... that was a big figure. Strictly a percentage play. If he were 25-1, maybe I'd be willing to entertain a different strategy.

To me, MM is an easy toss... I really believe he's already flashed his best form and if that's the case, he's nowhere near fast enough to contend here. He'd have to improve and again, percentages are strongly against it... i would actually make him a shorter price to be "eased" (or worse) than to win..... just one man's opinion though.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I am just waiting for post positions. For this year's Derby, I am going with the trend ever since they implemented the new points system that prevents pure sprinters (more likely their Derby-fevered owners) from entering this race. Apart from the Palace Malice experiment-gone-wrong, the quality speed has held and closers did have their chance. Other than the volume of rush hour traffic, it is pretty fair race. It even produced a Triple Crown winner.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Chad Brown seems to be VERY happy with Good Magic’s latest work. He says it was “outstanding” and “perfect” and says all systems are go for the horse to run his best race of his life in the KY Derby.

No reason to overthink it ....

Your winner comes from these 5 horses ....

Mendelssohn
Magnum Moon
Audible
Good Magic
Hofburg

It’s badically all about Pletcher, the Ortiz brothers and the outstanding class and ability of Mendelssohn.


And maybe that is where the "other Baffert horse" bites us all in the ass.

[burnsy]

I think looking at numbers and figs of one questionably run race is under thinking. Especially when 3 horses other than the ones mentioned i believe have a great shot. The word "bounce" is thrown around way too loosely to make peoples figs seem accurate. I have a feeling (could be wrong) that the Santa Anita Derby was weaker than some of the other preps.....despite the what the figure folk are saying.

I don't cash on the horses I cash on with figs anyway, those are usually the shorter ones that I'll use in a number but the "Payoff horse" most likely won't have the best fig anyway. That's where i make my money.

Stand outs my ass. Bolt D'oro has not really won since like September.

[f2tornado]

Bolt and Justify lay over the field on Timeform and they look solid on TG and Ragozin as well... (even better if you're inclined to toss the horses who look to bounce).

Yes, if you're strictly a figure player then Justify over whatever is your play. People speak of bounces but I don't recall anyone suggesting Justify could bounce off his massive figures. And, I reserve skepticism of those figures to begin with. The highest last out Beyer is 2 for the last 15. The highest last out Brisnet is 5 for 29. The TG for Good Magic and Vino Rosso is good enough to contend for the win. I'm sure Trakus would show they ran farther than the Santa Anita Derby horses as well.

That said, I had some tunnel vision against Nyquist that partially cleared in time for post. His dosage profile was a skeleton, he didn't beat much in Florida, had the Juvenile champion jinx, not my favorite Derby sire line, and perhaps other drawbacks. I played Exaggerator then perhaps two hours to post I threw Nyquist on top a small trifecta and exacta wager. He had the fast 3/8th and Buckpasser angles going for him, both with solid Derby impact value. I cashed those tickets for a small positive ROI on the race but had I merely boxed the two instead of overthinking the gimmicks then would have collected half my rent for the month. Not a huge score but it's no fun leaving a few c-notes on the table. The difference between Nyquist and Justify is Nyquist previously beat a chunk of the field going into the gate including the horse I liked most. Justify has only beat Bolt.

[Mc990]

I think looking at numbers and figs of one questionably run race is under thinking. Especially when 3 horses other than the ones mentioned i believe have a great shot. The word "bounce" is thrown around way too loosely to make peoples figs seem accurate. I have a feeling (could be wrong) that the Santa Anita Derby was weaker than some of the other preps.....despite the what the figure folk are saying.

I don't cash on the horses I cash on with figs anyway, those are usually the shorter ones that I'll use in a number but the "Payoff horse" most likely won't have the best fig anyway. That's where i make my money.

Stand outs my ass. Bolt D'oro has not really won since like September.

Just because your last sentence is true, it does not preclude Bolt and Justify from being standouts in this race... someone capable of putting together those first two intelligent paragraphs (even though I somewhat disagree with them) should not also be capable of writing the third paragraph.

[papillon]

Just because your last sentence is true, it does not preclude Bolt and Justify from being standouts in this race... someone capable of putting together those first two intelligent paragraphs (even though I somewhat disagree with them) should not also be capable of writing the third paragraph.


Neither Bolt D'Oro, nor Solimini have indicated that they are improving as the races get longer, unless you go solely by figs. This race is setting up to have a race shape very like 2005. They don't strike me the two horses to stay the longest, or come running late.

My interest in figs is almost purely to gage which horses are in the "in crowd" and which are not. Who is and who isn't has, since the advent of internet forums, 9 times out of 10 been due to irrational exerburence. I don't determine what I think about any horse based on this, but I do use it as a heaping barrel of salt to weed through what everyone is saying.

The outcome of derby is more often than not, in retrospect, not that surprising. There are Mine That Birds, but they a rare. When odd outcomes happen it is usually due to an oddly run race and unforeseeable events or weather.

In a race with a few true speed horses, pick the most dogged speed with the most likely chance of hanging on, the most nimble and dogged 2nd flighter, and then toss in a pure closer, and box them. Showy speed is often not very dogged.

In a race of equally matched speed, pick the most dogged speed likely to stay the longest, the most nimble and dogged 2nd flighter, and then toss in a pure closer. And box them.

You might pick the wrong ones, but the three types of horses that cross the line will almost always fit the pattern, and more often than not make the most sense after the fact.

Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Curlin made sense.

Afleet Alex made sense, breaking down the speed in 2005 was hard, none really showed fight in their prior races, except Wilko, who was my choice (also because of the band). Giaccomo made sense too in retrospect, there wasn't really any other closer.

I had token win bets on him and Closing Argument because of their odds, but I didn't have them anywhere else.

Nyquist and Exagerator made sense. Gunrunner bucked the pattern, but history has proved why. They were the only two horses I liked and I bet them in a straight exacta, Nyquist over Exagerator. It wasn't hard, I don't claim superpowers, but it was the only thing that made sense. It didn't make me rich, but it was better than a kick in the butt.

I stay away from Johnny Jump out of Nowheres. So far I've done okay with that. I also stay away from Dear John's on the Skids. So far I've done okay with that. I stay away from the Umpteenth Time is the Charmers. So far I've done okay with that. And starting a couple of years ago, I stay away from Is it Friday Yeters, this one has been very promising so far.

[LoneF]

You should like my 5 horses than ..

Mendelssohn is the speed most likely to stay.

Audible/Magnum Moon the most dogged stalkers

Good Magic/Hofburg best pure mid pack/closers

[LoneF]

I will say the super picture looks like it’s starting to come into focus.

Flameaway/combatant .I think are both must uses for the 3rd and 4th spots just because they always show up

Lone Sailor is becoming a bit of a wise guy horse which is not ideal because it will lower his odds but still should get a decent price. I am talking use 3rd and 4th not saying he will win.

Bravazo is one I personally like 3rd or 4th that should be HUGE odds

[LoneF]

Differing opinions are what makes this game great but I strongly believe you have to play Mend to bounce... that was a big figure. Strictly a percentage play. If he were 25-1, maybe I'd be willing to entertain a different strategy.

To me, MM is an easy toss... I really believe he's already flashed his best form and if that's the case, he's nowhere near fast enough to contend here. He'd have to improve and again, percentages are strongly against it... i would actually make him a shorter price to be "eased" (or worse) than to win..... just one man's opinion though.

I respect your opinion but I would say Justify should be shorter odds to be eased than to win for sure. The most likely scenario for him is clear. Breaks slow as usual gets shuffled way back and after getting bumped and taking dirt for the first time he never gets back in the race and Smith eases him

[LoneF]

If Baffert has first choice and could put Justify anywhere where do you think he would choose ??

I say Justify only shot would be getting the #20 post and Smith keeping him to the outside in the early and mid stages of the race. If he draws the #1 post I would have to find a way to bet every cent I could get my hands on against him to win in a prop bet or whatever. Sure any horse is going to be disadvantaged with the 1 hole but a horse that breaks slow and has never taken contact or dirt in his life ..... and I bet he would stil go off as favorite lol

[PowerUpPaynter]

I think looking at numbers and figs of one questionably run race is under thinking. Especially when 3 horses other than the ones mentioned i believe have a great shot. The word "bounce" is thrown around way too loosely to make peoples figs seem accurate. I have a feeling (could be wrong) that the Santa Anita Derby was weaker than some of the other preps.....despite the what the figure folk are saying.

I don't cash on the horses I cash on with figs anyway, those are usually the shorter ones that I'll use in a number but the "Payoff horse" most likely won't have the best fig anyway. That's where i make my money.

Stand outs my ass. Bolt D'oro has not really won since like September.

How many horses in this crop would be beat McKinzie and Justify under the uncontested lead in the Santa Anita Derby. I know its been said a lot but I just dont buy that knock on Bolt d'Oro one bit. If he ran in the Louisiana Derby, Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby, or Wood. Just my opinion but if Bolt woulda won by open lengths people would cry that he was ducking Justify or McKinzie if he was healthy. If you just dont like the horse fine but the he hasnt won since September argument is crap. He ran a brutal wide trip in the BC Juvenile, ran against a stand out in McKinzie, and couldnt catch Justify on an uncontested lead most of these horses would have the same result.

[LoneF]

If Promises Fulfilled draws more than 8 post positions outside Mendelssohn it’s a wrap . Gate to wire for Mendy no reason to even run the race

[BlueChip@DRF]

If Promises Fulfilled draws more than 8 post positions outside Mendelssohn it’s a wrap . Gate to wire for Mendy no reason to even run the race

Well, why not just give him the crown while we're at it?

[dballard125]

If Promises Fulfilled draws more than 8 post positions outside Mendelssohn it’s a wrap . Gate to wire for Mendy no reason to even run the race

I've seen you clown show multiple threads with your opinion that Mendelssohn will run away with this race. Will you be back to eat plates full of crow on Derby night, when he finishes out of the money?

[TiffaniO]

I've seen you clown show multiple threads with your opinion that Mendelssohn will run away with this race. Will you be back to eat plates full of crow on Derby night, when he finishes out of the money?

�� �� ��

Can’t say I’m a Justify fan but I’m hoping now that he wins in hand and Mendelsohn goes the way of all other UAE winners.

I hope he posts pictures of the Mendelsohn tickets pre-race.

[Blenheim]

How many horses in this crop would be beat McKinzie and Justify under the uncontested lead in the Santa Anita Derby. I know its been said a lot but I just dont buy that knock on Bolt d'Oro one bit. If he ran in the Louisiana Derby, Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby, or Wood. Just my opinion but if Bolt woulda won by open lengths people would cry that he was ducking Justify or McKinzie if he was healthy. If you just dont like the horse fine but the he hasnt won since September argument is crap. He ran a brutal wide trip in the BC Juvenile, ran against a stand out in McKinzie, and couldnt catch Justify on an uncontested lead most of these horses would have the same result.


I agree w/you and I like the horse and its been tough for me to rule him out, but he will be racing against fresh, late developing and highly talented swiftys; they are now what Bolt was when he was racing at two. The only knock against them is inexperience while Bolt is likely suffering from the rigors of the long two-year-old campaign and the three-year-old campaign - it takes its toll. Is he the same horse now he was last year? There was a time when types like Bolt ruled, but not now, not like they used to - not anymore. I think his type, they're fading . . .

So what do ya' do, go with the fresh swifty or the aching and tired classic type? Seems a pretty easy decision for me.

[LoneF]

I've seen you clown show multiple threads with your opinion that Mendelssohn will run away with this race. Will you be back to eat plates full of crow on Derby night, when he finishes out of the money?

I will be back regardless of the outcome.

The best part will be the double dip I will most likely get with the Preakness . Most of the horses will be scared off after Mendelssohn romps in the KY Derby but Baffert is the type who will run Justify back after he breaks slow gets shuffled back and eased in the KY Derby. I am sure he will be thinking the 7 horse field will help Justify which it will in regards to his gate issues but at the same time it means he won’t get to take the easy way out like he will in the derby. He will have to look Mendelssohn in the eye ( for a brief moment at least ) before Mendelssohn leaves him in the dust.

[LoneF]

�� �� ��

Can’t say I’m a Justify fan but I’m hoping now that he wins in hand and Mendelsohn goes the way of all other UAE winners.

I hope he posts pictures of the Mendelsohn tickets pre-race.

I don’t think any of the other UAE Derby winners were also Breeders Cup Champions and 3 million dollar yearling purchases but you can keep on hoping all the way to derby day until a little thing like reality rears it’s ugly head lol

[LoneF]

How many horses in this crop would be beat McKinzie and Justify under the uncontested lead in the Santa Anita Derby. I know its been said a lot but I just dont buy that knock on Bolt d'Oro one bit. If he ran in the Louisiana Derby, Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby, or Wood. Just my opinion but if Bolt woulda won by open lengths people would cry that he was ducking Justify or McKinzie if he was healthy. If you just dont like the horse fine but the he hasnt won since September argument is crap. He ran a brutal wide trip in the BC Juvenile, ran against a stand out in McKinzie, and couldnt catch Justify on an uncontested lead most of these horses would have the same result.

I partly agree with you. Any mediocre horse that gets a easy uncontested lead can get brave. Just look at Promises Fulfilled in the Fountain of Youth. So why did Bolt sacrifice all chance by just conceding to Justify and not even attempting to make a race of it. Javier Castellano said Mick Ruis told him to let Justify go like that. Great strategy on his part. He will also be calling the shots in the KY Derby. Who knows what he will tell Victor to do lol ???

I would rather be putting my money behind competent trainers like Aidan O’Brien, Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown and Bill Mott.

[LoneF]

Another Quiz !!!

Don’t cheat and look at your PP’s. We will go on the honor system.

Previous quiz was a two part question. Which horse has raced against the least number of horses in his career ? Also which horse has raced the least number of times against horses in this years KY Derby ?

Justify was the answer to both

New Question

Who is the only horse in this years field to have only raced at one track their entire career ?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Im not in the Justify camp. Do I think he COULD win? Absolutely. If he does he is a true freak and the sports next super star. There is no value in betting Justify to win. Sure ill hold a tri ticket with him on top but ill have a bunch of tickets. Bolt d'Oro and Vino Rosso are my top picks that will be up and down my tickets. Luckily, I dont have to bet any tickets with Mendy on top since I got him at 60-1 offshore. Mendy and Justify both have things to overcome. Good Magic im not a fan of, at least not for the win. I like Lone Sailor, Noble Indy, Flameaway, and Bravazo to add a price underneath on my tickets.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I agree w/you and I like the horse and its been tough for me to rule him out, but he will be racing against fresh, late developing and highly talented swiftys; they are now what Bolt was when he was racing at two. The only knock against them is inexperience while Bolt is likely suffering from the rigors of the long two-year-old campaign and the three-year-old campaign - it takes its toll. Is he the same horse now he was last year? There was a time when types like Bolt ruled, but not now, not like they used to - not anymore. I think his type, they're fading . . .

So what do ya' do, go with the fresh swifty or the aching and tired classic type? Seems a pretty easy decision for me.


There aren't many fresh swifties. I got 3 horses that can beat him. That's it. The rest are fresh dung!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I will be back regardless of the outcome.

The best part will be the double dip I will most likely get with the Preakness . Most of the horses will be scared off after Mendelssohn romps in the KY Derby but Baffert is the type who will run Justify back after he breaks slow gets shuffled back and eased in the KY Derby. I am sure he will be thinking the 7 horse field will help Justify which it will in regards to his gate issues but at the same time it means he won’t get to take the easy way out like he will in the derby. He will have to look Mendelssohn in the eye ( for a brief moment at least ) before Mendelssohn leaves him in the dust.

I think if Mendelssohn rates just off the lead pack and runs his race, he can outrun all these. I think trying to beat the frontrunners at their own game in the states could be his undoing. I am less worried about the bias than him trying to wire because 25 and 48 won't work. I haven't decide completely how I will play but Mendy is right up there.!

[LoneF]

Im not in the Justify camp. Do I think he COULD win? Absolutely. If he does he is a true freak and the sports next super star. There is no value in betting Justify to win. Sure ill hold a tri ticket with him on top but ill have a bunch of tickets. Bolt d'Oro and Vino Rosso are my top picks that will be up and down my tickets. Luckily, I dont have to bet any tickets with Mendy on top since I got him at 60-1 offshore. Mendy and Justify both have things to overcome. Good Magic im not a fan of, at least not for the win. I like Lone Sailor, Noble Indy, Flameaway, and Bravazo to add a price underneath on my tickets.

Mendelssohn at 60-1 ? Nice Job. You must of got that action really early on .

I like all your underneath horses except Noble Indy. I actually think Noble Indy is a underrated horse but the KY Derby does not seem like it’s shaping up to be a race that suits his style but I think he can win a nice stakes race down the road.

Bravazo I think could clunk up at what might be the second or third biggest price in the field. Draw a line through the LA Derby as just a case of him getting off to a funky start and never really getting in the race and eventually eased and he doesn’t look bad as a clunk up prospect at all. If you look at his pp’s he throws in these strange clunker races for no apparent reason now and than but he has not done it twice in a row yet and when he’s on he usually runs really well. I think a lot of people forget he was basically a co favorite in the LA Derby. Went off 3-1. Most people will just see he finished 21 lengths behind and quickly dismiss him. Worth a shot at least ....

Lone Sailor looks like he is shaping up to be the wise guy horse. They were pumping him up on TVG today so you won’t get the huge price like Bravazo but still should get decent odds and he is getting some steam for good reason. He could possibly be very legit. He might just end up completing not just supers but also exactas and tri’s. Must use underneath in my opinion.

Flameaway just shows up every time. Impossible to leave out underneath

You are not using Combatant ? ( The poor man’s flameaway lol )

I also disagree about Good Magic. He will be one of the few horses I use both on top and underneath. Think he is set up to run huge. Although if he draws post 1 or 2 than I will probably toss out completely. With his lack of really good gate speed he could never overcome those posts.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Im not in the Justify camp. Do I think he COULD win? Absolutely. If he does he is a true freak and the sports next super star. There is no value in betting Justify to win. Sure ill hold a tri ticket with him on top but ill have a bunch of tickets. Bolt d'Oro and Vino Rosso are my top picks that will be up and down my tickets. Luckily, I dont have to bet any tickets with Mendy on top since I got him at 60-1 offshore. Mendy and Justify both have things to overcome. Good Magic im not a fan of, at least not for the win. I like Lone Sailor, Noble Indy, Flameaway, and Bravazo to add a price underneath on my tickets.

We're definitely thinking in the same neighborhood. When I take every handicapping aspect into account with probable odds I can't separate my top 4.

[LoneF]

I think if Mendelssohn rates just off the lead pack and runs his race, he can outrun all these. I think trying to beat the frontrunners at their own game in the states could be his undoing. I am less worried about the bias than him trying to wire because 25 and 48 won't work. I haven't decide completely how I will play but Mendy is right up there.!

I think your right that rating right off the pace than pushing the button like he did in the BC Turf and just drawing off wil probably be the way he does it vs just running them off their feet like in the UAE Derby

[CincyHorseplayer]

Mendelssohn at 60-1 ? Nice Job. You must of got that action really early on .

I like all your underneath horses except Noble Indy. I actually think Noble Indy is a underrated horse but the KY Derby does not seem like it’s shaping up to be a race that suits his style but I think he can win a nice stakes race down the road.

Bravazo I think could clunk up at what might be the second or third biggest price in the field. Draw a line through the LA Derby as just a case of him getting off to a funky start and never really getting in the race and eventually eased and he doesn’t look bad as a clunk up prospect at all. If you look at his pp’s he throws in these strange clunker races for no apparent reason now and than but he has not done it twice in a row yet and when he’s on he usually runs really well. I think a lot of people forget he was basically a co favorite in the LA Derby. Went off 3-1. Most people will just see he finished 21 lengths behind and quickly dismiss him. Worth a shot at least ....

Lone Sailor looks like he is shaping up to be the wise guy horse. They were pumping him up on TVG today so you won’t get the huge price like Bravazo but still should get decent odds and he is getting some steam for good reason. He could possibly be very legit. He might just end up completing not just supers but also exactas and tri’s. Must use underneath in my opinion.

Flameaway just shows up every time. Impossible to leave out underneath

You are not using Combatant ? ( The poor man’s flameaway lol )

I also disagree about Good Magic. He will be one of the few horses I use both on top and underneath. Think he is set up to run huge. Although if he draws post 1 or 2 than I will probably toss out completely. With his lack of really good gate speed he could never overcome those posts.

It amazes me you think so highly of Good Magic for his form cycle and Bolt has the exact same cycle except he has faced better this year and ran faster as a 2yo. I guess all you see is one beat the other, case closed. The thing about GM is he could be as bad of an underlay as Justify for exactly the reasons you like him.

[Spalding No!]

I also disagree about Good Magic. He will be one of the few horses I use both on top and underneath. Think he is set up to run huge. Although if he draws post 1 or 2 than I will probably toss out completely. With his lack of really good gate speed he could never overcome those posts.
Good Magic broke on top in the BC Juvenile. He broke right with Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled in the FOY. He broke alongside Flameaway in the Blue Grass and was no more than a neck behind that one right out of the gate.

[AskinHaskin]

Bolt and Justify lay over the field



Based on what?


Their one-two parade in an SA Derby featuring the slowest dirt splits in decades?


Now some idiots cite the track surface as having been slow for the SA Derby, but consider that the Oaks splits are routinely slower than those of the SA Derby (run on the same day) and that the 2018 Oaks had faster early splits than its counterpart for males.

Aside from that, Justify has found success in a pair of 5-horse fields, one a sprint, the other in the mud.


Justify could be far superior to any 3yo society has ever witnessed but to suggest you know so at this point is foolhardy.


PS - it would probably be wrong of you to question the quality of the last few SA Oaks winners.

[Spalding No!]

Now some idiots cite the track surface as having been slow for the SA Derby, but consider that the Oaks splits are routinely slower than those of the SA Derby (run on the same day) and that the 2018 Oaks had faster early splits than its counterpart for males.

Amazingly, you have the audacity to call people "idiots" for highlighting the very real fact that the Santa Anita surface has been slower than in prior years. Of course:

(1) This year's SA Oaks--like the SA Derby this year-- also had the slowest early splits in the past 6 years. Evidence that the track is indeed slower than prior seasons.

(2) The SA Oaks has only been run on the same day as the SA Derby for only the past 6 runnings. Prior to that it was earlier on the calendar. In fact, several fillies have run in both races.

(3) This year's SA Oaks had a one-dimensional frontrunner, Thirteen Squared, loose on the front end for a routine pop-and-stop effort since she stretched out from sprints. The SA Derby, meanwhile, featured not a single dedicated frontrunner.

(4) While the SA Derby has had marginally faster fractions than the Oaks in recent years, only 2016 had dramatically faster fractions. That was the year the clear run-off and future sprinter Danzig Candy went out on a solo kamikaze mission on the front end. The Oaks featured Songbird on an uncontested lead.

(5) In 2017, 2014, and 2013 the SA Derby featured a speed duel while the Oaks had a lone frontrunner. No surprise that the fractions would be faster in the former.

(6) Prior to this year, the SA Oaks had a speed duel develop in only one of the past 5 runnings, 2015, when closer Stellar Wind benefited and looped the field. Other than that, the race has featured a lone front runner enjoying a clear, unpressured lead--quite ripe for slow fractions.

I won't go so far as to call you an idiot...

..but from your post I would have to guess that you're somewhere between a moron and an imbecile...

[boys at tosconova]

both seem solid. but since justy put him away, do you really think bolt can turn the tables? not to mention beat the other fig horses he'll have to deal with. i don't think he can, but it won't be impossible, or really that much of an epic call if he does

[SharpCat]

Based on what?


Their one-two parade in an SA Derby featuring the slowest dirt splits in decades?


Now some idiots cite the track surface as having been slow for the SA Derby

I guess I am one of the idiots. Here is what I posted in the Beyer fig thread on 4-13-2018.

I've said I think Santa Anita is playing much slower and I mean much slower than I can ever remember. I have played it long enough to know even the cheapest horses can put up quick sectionals. The past year has been pretty much no can do.

I did a little checking to see if my opinion would change. Let's just say I confirmed my own opinion. It was nothing fancy or scientific but it was more than enough for me. Since were talking Derby I checked the 6F call for every 2 turn race including todays races on a fast track this meet at Santa Anita. It is 88 races and here is the break down.

1:10-1:10.99 1 race and just barely Unique Bella 1:10.95
1:11-1:11.99 10 races
1:12-1:12.99 42 races
1:13-1:13.99 25 races
1:14-1:14.99 10 races

I looked at sprint races and it just made the case even stronger.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I agree w/you and I like the horse and its been tough for me to rule him out, but he will be racing against fresh, late developing and highly talented swiftys; they are now what Bolt was when he was racing at two. The only knock against them is inexperience while Bolt is likely suffering from the rigors of the long two-year-old campaign and the three-year-old campaign - it takes its toll. Is he the same horse now he was last year? There was a time when types like Bolt ruled, but not now, not like they used to - not anymore. I think his type, they're fading . . .

So what do ya' do, go with the fresh swifty or the aching and tired classic type? Seems a pretty easy decision for me.


ummm. 3 of the last 4 were big time 2 year olds... foundation matters

[PowerUpPaynter]

Mendelssohn at 60-1 ? Nice Job. You must of got that action really early on .


November 9th

Still dont beat my 200-1 on Bolt on Sept 6th and again at 40-1 on October 2nd

Also picked up Audible 80-1 January 30th


offshore futures bets are fantastic, really changes the way u bet derby day. flexibility to the max

[Mc990]

Based on what?


Their one-two parade in an SA Derby featuring the slowest dirt splits in decades?


Now some idiots cite the track surface as having been slow for the SA Derby, but consider that the Oaks splits are routinely slower than those of the SA Derby (run on the same day) and that the 2018 Oaks had faster early splits than its counterpart for males.

Aside from that, Justify has found success in a pair of 5-horse fields, one a sprint, the other in the mud.


Justify could be far superior to any 3yo society has ever witnessed but to suggest you know so at this point is foolhardy.


PS - it would probably be wrong of you to question the quality of the last few SA Oaks winners.

Based on what? Based on the fact that they've been the fastest horses of this crop. The race doesn't always go to the swift, but that's the way it should be bet. Bolt is shaping up to be the biggest derby overlay in quite some time if he really does go off 4-5th choice.

Also, it seems obvious that you have no idea how figures are made. I guess Timeform, Rag and TG all just independently came to the wrong conclusion on these two horses.... what a joke!

[AskinHaskin]

Amazingly, you have the audacity to call people "idiots" for highlighting the very real fact that the Santa Anita surface has been slower than in prior years. Of course:

(1) This year's SA Oaks--like the SA Derby this year-- also had the slowest early splits in the past 6 years. Evidence that the track is indeed slower than prior seasons.

(2) The SA Oaks has only been run on the same day as the SA Derby for only the past 6 runnings. Prior to that it was earlier on the calendar. In fact, several fillies have run in both races.

(3) This year's SA Oaks had a one-dimensional frontrunner, Thirteen Squared, loose on the front end for a routine pop-and-stop effort since she stretched out from sprints. The SA Derby, meanwhile, featured not a single dedicated frontrunner.

(4) While the SA Derby has had marginally faster fractions than the Oaks in recent years, only 2016 had dramatically faster fractions. That was the year the clear run-off and future sprinter Danzig Candy went out on a solo kamikaze mission on the front end. The Oaks featured Songbird on an uncontested lead.

(5) In 2017, 2014, and 2013 the SA Derby featured a speed duel while the Oaks had a lone frontrunner. No surprise that the fractions would be faster in the former.

(6) Prior to this year, the SA Oaks had a speed duel develop in only one of the past 5 runnings, 2015, when closer Stellar Wind benefited and looped the field. Other than that, the race has featured a lone front runner enjoying a clear, unpressured lead--quite ripe for slow fractions.

I won't go so far as to call you an idiot...

..but from your post I would have to guess that you're somewhere between a moron and an imbecile...



Maybe you should actually pay attention to what is written.

I stated nothing about any assessment of the general sense of the speed of the SA main track during the winter race meet.

The idiots are citing a slow surface (whether it be on Derby day, or all season) as the reason why Justify crawled on the front end... posting the slowest splits in decades for the SA Derby (while on the same day the SA Oaks had faster splits than the Derby for the rare time).


A reference to the slowest Oaks splits in "six years" pales by comparison to the slowest SA Derby 6-furlongs in decades and the slowest SA Derby half-mile run on dirt in decades.


Why don't you drivel through a synopsis of every SA Derby back to Terlago and tell us why there is some excuse for this Derby or that Derby to have known a faster pace than that of Justify's? Be sure to add factors relating to brilliant wagers you made on some of them, and how you were screwed out of your money for this reason or that reason.


What amuses me most is that, in your limited world, 6 runnings of the SA Oaks is enough for "evidence that the track (in 2018) is indeed slower than prior seasons", and yet the slowest SA Derby splits in 20+ years isn't even noteworthy.


Justify could be anything at this point... but he hasn't been tested by any respectable measure to date, and thus might not be the greatest bet to continue the string of winning KY Derby favorites.

[Spalding No!]

Maybe you should actually pay attention to what is written.
I presume this is your segue into what you really meant to say in your previous post...

I stated nothing about any assessment of the general sense of the speed of the SA main track during the winter race meet.
...yes because you ignored the very important tidbit which pretty much negates any direct comparison to previous decades of Santa Anita Derbies in favor of making the dubious and ill-founded comparison to another race, for a different gender, at a different distance, and often-times run weeks before the SA Derby...

The idiots are citing a slow surface (whether it be on Derby day, or all season) as the reason why Justify crawled on the front end... posting the slowest splits in decades for the SA Derby (while on the same day the SA Oaks had faster splits than the Derby for the rare time).
Let me get this straight. Despite the fact that the SA surface is 1-2 seconds slower from a historical standpoint, you are still shocked that the SA Derby this year had some of the slowest splits ever?

A reference to the slowest Oaks splits in "six years" pales by comparison to the slowest SA Derby 6-furlongs in decades and the slowest SA Derby half-mile run on dirt in decades.
Goal post change much? You're the one who directly compared the SA Oaks to the SA Derby, basing this on the fact that its run on the same day. It has only been on the same day for the past 6 runnings. Not much of a sample when you also completely ignore the respective pace scenarios of each race.

Why don't you drivel through a synopsis of every SA Derby back to Terlago and tell us why there is some excuse for this Derby or that Derby to have known a faster pace than that of Justify's?
Once again its been established that the track is slower, so who cares about prior runnings? And why do you continue to ignore the pace scenarios? Are all races run with the same number of horses, at the same distance, with the same diversity of running styles, with negligible track conditions, traffic issues, etc.?

What amuses me most is that, in your limited world, 6 runnings of the SA Oaks is enough for "evidence that the track (in 2018) is indeed slower than prior seasons", and yet the slowest SA Derby splits in 20+ years isn't even noteworthy.
I guess you missed the part where I said "--like the SA Derby this year--".

Nevertheless, I didn't say that that single observation was strong evidence. Another poster did a more thorough analysis that showed that only Grade 1 triple digit Beyering Unique Bella has been able to break the 1:11 barrier for a 3/4 split in any dirt route at SA this meet. Does that register in the slightest?

Justify could be anything at this point... but he hasn't been tested by any respectable measure to date, and thus might not be the greatest bet to continue the string of winning KY Derby favorites.
Any idiot knows that...

But none of that means he didn't run a fast race in the SA Derby...

[CincyHorseplayer]

Well since were throwing around idiot analysis here...

Idiots are the ones citing historical numbers for Santa Anita when it's not the same track at all after have been ripped up and rebuilt twice, especially with plenty of new data to back up the change. That negligence is the real stupidity in the room!

And if we are ignoring speed and using fractions, heads up Mendelssohn isn't wiring a damn thing going 25 and 48 to start a race. Fact punks, fact!:cool:

[Mc990]

Well since were throwing around idiot analysis here...

Idiots are the ones citing historical numbers for Santa Anita when it's not the same track at all after have been ripped up and rebuilt twice, especially with plenty of new data to back up the change. That negligence is the real stupidity in the room!

And if we are ignoring speed and using fractions, heads up Mendelssohn isn't wiring a damn thing going 25 and 48 to start a race. Fact punks, fact!:cool:

Just one more fact.... there is no run up in Meydan, so adjust accordingly

Btw I still think he's a toss

[f2tornado]

historical numbers for Santa Anita when it's not the same track at all after have been ripped up and rebuilt twice

Has the surface changed since the Pro-Ride was ripped out in December 2010? One has to go back to Swaps in 1955 and Hail Gail in 1952 to find slower Santa Anita Derby winners to Kentucky Derby winners. Every handicapper knows there are track variants but one must put a lot of faith in the radically changed variant to go against 63 years of history. It's hard to even get good graded stakes pars this year since many were run on a sealed track. I'll be watching any Santa Anita horses at Churchill before the Derby to see how their raw times correlate.

[LoneF]

Well since were throwing around idiot analysis here...

Idiots are the ones citing historical numbers for Santa Anita when it's not the same track at all after have been ripped up and rebuilt twice, especially with plenty of new data to back up the change. That negligence is the real stupidity in the room!

And if we are ignoring speed and using fractions, heads up Mendelssohn isn't wiring a damn thing going 25 and 48 to start a race. Fact punks, fact!:cool:

Mendelssohn does not have to wire this field to win. Watch the replay of the BC Turf. Although he does have the ability to go wire to wire if that’s how the race sets up.

[Blenheim]

Mendelssohn does not have to wire this field to win. Watch the replay of the BC Turf. Although he does have the ability to go wire to wire if that’s how the race sets up.

Mr. LoneF,

With all due respect, how many times has an overseas shipper won the Kentucky Derby?

[LoneF]

November 9th

Still dont beat my 200-1 on Bolt on Sept 6th and again at 40-1 on October 2nd

Also picked up Audible 80-1 January 30th


offshore futures bets are fantastic, really changes the way u bet derby day. flexibility to the max

You can get incredible odds from offshore books but don’t hold your breath on them paying you out lol

[LoneF]

Mr. LoneF,

With all due respect, how many times has an overseas shipper won the Kentucky Derby?

About as many times as a horse has won after never racing as a two year old.

How many times has a overseas shipper ever came over with a Breeders Cup win under their belt and the distinction of being the highest priced yearling of the group ?

[Spalding No!]

Mendelssohn does not have to wire this field to win. Watch the replay of the BC Turf. Although he does have the ability to go wire to wire if that’s how the race sets up.
It's a bit dubious to compare a horse's turf races to its dirt races. Never mind the different way each type of race is typically conducted, but also the individual horse's themselves might display different preferred running styles.

For example, in 1989, one Derby prospect named Hawkster (the broodmare sire of Afleet Alex) was an off-the-pace one run closer type. He ran along for 5th in all 3 Triple Crown races while never making a threat to the Sunday Silence-Easy Goer show up front.

In the summer, Hawkster switched to the turf at Del Mar and was a complete run-off. He won his first 4 turf starts wire-to-wire, culminating in a world-record effort in the Oak Tree Invitational where he opened up something like 10 lengths on the field right out of the gate and kept on going.

That aside, I think you have to factor Coolmore's continued failure in this race and NA dirt races in general. They gunned U S Navy Flag to the lead in the BC Juvenile and tried to do likewise with Churchill in the Classic (he got smashed into submission between horses heading to the first turn).

I don't think they want to see if Mendelssohn can take dirt in the face for 7f and still be willing to launch a bid to the lead. They already know he has front running speed on dirt and that he breaks sharply from the gate. I think he'll send immediately from the gate.

Note Aidan O'Brien's telling quote before the UAE Derby:

"Scat Daddy is obviously an influence for speed, but American racing is very different and the most important thing of all is speed. You just hope for stamina after that, but if you don't have pace it's a waste of time.”

[Blenheim]

About as many times as a horse has won after never racing as a two year old.

How many times has a overseas shipper ever came over with a Breeders Cup win under their belt and the distinction of being the highest priced yearling of the group ?

With all due respect, I downloaded the following information from the DRF - Kentucky Derby 2016: Inside The Numbers. I don't think its 100% correct as the record shows Omar Khayyam shipped in and won it back in 1917. Maybe your research can help . . .

Canonero II in 1971 remains the only horse to win Kentucky Derby as a foreign shipper, although he did run twice at Del Mar as a juvenile. Since 1991, 19 horses ran in the Derby after competing overseas in their previous start; the best finish of any of them was fifth place by Master of Hounds in 2011, and the most notable flop was the eighth-place finish by Arazi in 1992 as the 4-5 favorite.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2016-inside-numbers

[Spalding No!]

How many times has a overseas shipper ever came over with a Breeders Cup win under their belt and the distinction of being the highest priced yearling of the group ?

Arazi and Johannesburg came over with wins in the BC Juvenile on dirt. Both were fairly expensive weanlings.

Arazi uncorked his trademark full field sweep, but either stamina, foundation, or soundness issues (or a combination thereof) saw him hit a brick wall at the 1/8th pole. There was also a slow pace in that race.

Johannesburg was part of a merry-go-round Derby in which I think only Medaglia D'Oro, failed by a poor start, was actually able to pass a horse in the stretch. I think most horses finished in the same position they started in. Johannesburg started from the dreaded rail, saved ground in 8th and stayed there. He had a single 7f prep on the grass in Ireland, where he was tagged at the wire by the older filly Rebelline, who later won Group 1 races and was the highweight between 7f-11f in Ireland for the distaff division in Ireland. Johannesburg was also without his regular rider Mick Kinane, who I think was suspended.

[boys at tosconova]

Mr. LoneF,

With all due respect, how many times has an overseas shipper won the Kentucky Derby?

i'm sorry. i can't resist. if by chance mendy runs big i can always use tis when we talk about the wood horses. either way, it's not likely to go away anytime soon. unless we get a mendy/rossi number.

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-orbXcIchehc/UFxOVJmOk8I/AAAAAAAADFo/tc63uabhhjU/s280/throwing-money-away.gif

[five-eighths]

It's a bit dubious to compare a horse's turf races to its dirt races. Never mind the different way each type of race is typically conducted, but also the individual horse's themselves might display different preferred running styles.

For example, in 1989, one Derby prospect named Hawkster (the broodmare sire of Afleet Alex) was an off-the-pace one run closer type. He ran along for 5th in all 3 Triple Crown races while never making a threat to the Sunday Silence-Easy Goer show up front.

In the summer, Hawkster switched to the turf at Del Mar and was a complete run-off. He won his first 4 turf starts wire-to-wire, culminating in a world-record effort in the Oak Tree Invitational where he opened up something like 10 lengths on the field right out of the gate and kept on going.

That aside, I think you have to factor Coolmore's continued failure in this race and NA dirt races in general. They gunned U S Navy Flag to the lead in the BC Juvenile and tried to do likewise with Churchill in the Classic (he got smashed into submission between horses heading to the first turn).

I don't think they want to see if Mendelssohn can take dirt in the face for 7f and still be willing to launch a bid to the lead. They already know he has front running speed on dirt and that he breaks sharply from the gate. I think he'll send immediately from the gate.

Note Aidan O'Brien's telling quote before the UAE Derby:

"Scat Daddy is obviously an influence for speed, but American racing is very different and the most important thing of all is speed. You just hope for stamina after that, but if you don't have pace it's a waste of time.”

Had to check out Hawkster for myself

https://youtu.be/H-aGn3GeV0M

[Spalding No!]

Had to check out Hawkster for myself

Hawkster passed on supplementing to the BC and ran in the Japan Cup instead, where he tasted defeat for the first time on turf.

In that race he surprisingly had to concede the early lead to Ibn Bey, who was a frontrunner in Europe but clearly had enough pace to handle American-type early speed. Hawkster collared him at the head of the stretch but both were quickly swallowed up despite fighting on to the wire.

Hawkster actually never won another race. When he returned home his connections decided to give him another go on the dirt. When he finally went back to the grass he ran into champion Steinlen and BC Turf hero Prized. Bad ankles cut his 4yo season and career short.

Coincidentally, since we're speaking about Mendelssohn, Japan Cup pace rival Ibn Bey went back to Europe and won a few Group 1s as a 6yo, then went to Belmont Park for a dirt experiment in the BC Classic. He chased a blazing pace set by Thirty Six Red among others, hung tough into the stretch and wrested the lead from the latter inside the 1/16th pole only to give way a stride or two later to the streaking Unbridled.

Ibn Bey, by the European great Mill Reef, had little dirt pedigree to speak of, but clearly his early speed was a huge asset in making the transition to dirt.

[clicknow]

That aside, I think you have to factor Coolmore's continued failure in this race and NA dirt races in general.

Mendolssohn isn't really a turf horse. He was bred for dirt.

So for me it wasn't so much that he was able to handle dirt and won by 18 lengths.....it was that he has proved that he can run on synth and turf as well. You have to think a horse like this can run on anything. He certainly has enough tactical speed to run ITM here.....I believe his dirt breeding "kicked in" the same way people describe the light bulb going on for other horses.

[Spalding No!]

Mendolssohn isn't really a turf horse. He was bred for dirt.
Scat Daddy, in both hemispheres, has been predominately a turf sire.

He has sired something like 45 Grade or Group 1 winners. Only 2 of those won Grade 1s on the dirt in North America: Nickname, who won the Frizette at 2 and never won again, and Justify, who of course will be lining up against Mendelssohn in the KY Derby.

[clicknow]

Scat Daddy, in both hemispheres, has been predominately a turf sire.

He has sired something like 45 Grade or Group 1 winners. Only 2 of those won Grade 1s on the dirt in North America: Nickname, who won the Frizette at 2 and never won again, and Justify, who of course will be lining up against Mendelssohn in the KY Derby.

Well maybe Justify and Mendelssohn will add to Scat Daddy's dirt accomplishments as a sire. He's already got some nice ones like Tu Brutus who could run at classic distances.

I wonder if Obrien took some notes from Carl Nafzger, who used the synthetic track at Keenland as part of Street Sense's unconventional prep for the Derby, as well as his BC Juvie win. Likewise, Hard Spun. I remember those trainers saying it imparts a different level of fitness.

[depalma113]

Mendelssohn does not have to wire this field to win. Watch the replay of the BC Turf. Although he does have the ability to go wire to wire if that’s how the race sets up.


Mendelssohn has never beaten a Grade One winner. He faces 8 in this race.

[Afleet]

[QUOTE=boys at tosconova;2307245 unless we get a mendy/rossi number.

that wouldn't bother me at all