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View Full Version : Is Bolt d'Oro is next Real Quiet?


PowerUpPaynter
04-22-2018, 07:17 PM
Real Quiet finished 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby and made a bold move around the turn that I can see Bolt making in the Kentucky Derby... food for thought. I can see it. If you get 10-1 on the most battle tested horse in the field that's really good value. I know he finished behind McKinzie and Justify but so would of Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Audible. Who woulda guessed Bolt would be an under the radar horse? 4-1 not a great bet, 8 or 10-1 and i'd take that all day.

CincyHorseplayer
04-22-2018, 07:26 PM
I've been considering this for weeks!:ThmbUp:

GMB@BP
04-22-2018, 07:42 PM
Bolt and Good Magic will be my plays....funny the top two year olds, who would have guessed.

horses4courses
04-22-2018, 08:12 PM
Wasn't Real Quiet a pretty average 2 year old?
Lots of foundation heading into the Derby.
Took him a while to improve.

Bolt was a beast of a 2 year old.
I'm thinking we may have seen the best of him, though.

GMB@BP
04-22-2018, 08:33 PM
Wasn't Real Quiet a pretty average 2 year old?
Lots of foundation heading into the Derby.
Took him a while to improve.

Bolt was a beast of a 2 year old.
I'm thinking we may have seen the best of him, though.

I think the larger point was that a very talented horse, Real Quit, was forgotten because of a very very talented young horse whipped him in the SA Derby in Indian Charlie.

Indian Charlie was a very good horse, he finished 3rd in that Derby and got hurt, he could have been special.

Bolt DOro is very good, he may be forgotten because of Justify. I think its a fair point.

horses4courses
04-22-2018, 08:36 PM
I think the larger point was that a very talented horse, Real Quit, was forgotten because of a very very talented young horse whipped him in the SA Derby in Indian Charlie.

Indian Charlie was a very good horse, he finished 3rd in that Derby and got hurt, he could have been special.

Bolt DOro is very good, he may be forgotten because of Justify. I think its a fair point.

I won't rule him out, by any means.
He's a tough horse.

depalma113
04-22-2018, 09:09 PM
Real Quiet finished 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby and made a bold move around the turn that I can see Bolt making in the Kentucky Derby... food for thought. I can see it. If you get 10-1 on the most battle tested horse in the field that's really good value. I know he finished behind McKinzie and Justify but so would of Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Audible. Who woulda guessed Bolt would be an under the radar horse? 4-1 not a great bet, 8 or 10-1 and i'd take that all day.

An MDO colt going a mile and a quarter on dirt, I would need a lot more than 10-1.

Spalding No!
04-22-2018, 10:23 PM
An MDO colt going a mile and a quarter on dirt, I would need a lot more than 10-1.
I think they said the same thing about Quiet American in the 1998 Kentucky Derby. They got a little over 8-1.

f2tornado
04-23-2018, 12:03 AM
It’s possible but Real Quiet was another Raise A Native and Buckpasser-x horse. He picked up a couple lengths on Indian Charlie through the final 3/8. This relative to Bolt who lost a couple lengths. I guess if you like Bolt then you almost have to like Justify as well.

burnsy
04-24-2018, 08:25 AM
Wasn't Real Quiet a pretty average 2 year old?
Lots of foundation heading into the Derby.
Took him a while to improve.

Bolt was a beast of a 2 year old.
I'm thinking we may have seen the best of him, though.

Agreed, plus somehow people leave out the fact that Good Magic beat Bolt D'oro and Solomini shipping west on their home tracks as a maiden. But the original poster and many others seem to have forgotten about the BC Juvenile race. Now somehow Good Magic would of finished behind all of them? A horse that also beat Enticed in a grade 1 as a maiden in NY. The logic is pretty thin on the accounts you read here. Now, he's Real Quiet? Ok I'm buying.......:)

Oh, that BC Juvenile sucked, so did the Champagne and Blue Grass, even though he's beaten much of the competition in this race.

LoneF
04-24-2018, 10:08 AM
I have talked a ton about Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Audible so I will set them aside ....

Good Magic beat Bolt
Good Magic is coming up to a lifetime best
Bolt hit his peak in the Frontrunner as a 2yr old and never progressed off that.
Good Magic looks like he wants the added distance .... Bolt not so much
Bolt had his jockey leave for greener pastures . Jose Ortiz staying put.
They will be roughly the same odds and you think Bolt offers the better value ?

PowerUpPaynter
04-24-2018, 08:11 PM
I have talked a ton about Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Audible so I will set them aside ....

Good Magic beat Bolt
Good Magic is coming up to a lifetime best
Bolt hit his peak in the Frontrunner as a 2yr old and never progressed off that.
Good Magic looks like he wants the added distance .... Bolt not so much
Bolt had his jockey leave for greener pastures . Jose Ortiz staying put.
They will be roughly the same odds and you think Bolt offers the better value ?

lets talk real talk about the Juvenile.

Good Magic final 5/16 and 1/16 was 30.96 and 6.35 Bolt's was 31.17 and 6.44. So Good magic did run slightly over a length better over the last 5/16 but does anyone know how much further Bolt ran in the race? Id imagine it was a bunch, he was what? 6 wide around both turns maybe and Good magic got a perfect trip. If the same thing happens in the Derby and Good Magic gets the best possible trip and Bolt d'Oro gets the worst possible trip/ride id expect Good Magic to beat Bolt by the same amount maybe even more. My guess is Espinoza will be quite an upgrade over Nakatani. If you assume a horse length is 8 feet then Good Magic beat Bolt by 42 feet. Id guess Bolt lost more ground than that. Trips matter, if every horse was guaranteed the same trip the best horse on that day would always win.

Bolt d'Oro is a more naturally talented horse than Good Magic and if the trainers were flipped it wouldnt even be a conversation. Good Magic would never be even close to McKinzie. Chad Brown is a great trainer. Thats the main advantage Good Magic has. The pure hatred for Bolt d'Oro is mind boggling. Lets spin stats on all the other contenders too... smh... Yeah he didnt hit the wire in front of McKinzie and Justify, most of these horses wouldnt.

cj
04-24-2018, 10:08 PM
lets talk real talk about the Juvenile.

Good Magic final 5/16 and 1/16 was 30.96 and 6.35 Bolt's was 31.17 and 6.44. So Good magic did run slightly over a length better over the last 5/16 but does anyone know how much further Bolt ran in the race? Id imagine it was a bunch, he was what? 6 wide around both turns maybe and Good magic got a perfect trip. If the same thing happens in the Derby and Good Magic gets the best possible trip and Bolt d'Oro gets the worst possible trip/ride id expect Good Magic to beat Bolt by the same amount maybe even more. My guess is Espinoza will be quite an upgrade over Nakatani. If you assume a horse length is 8 feet then Good Magic beat Bolt by 42 feet. Id guess Bolt lost more ground than that. Trips matter, if every horse was guaranteed the same trip the best horse on that day would always win.

Bolt d'Oro is a more naturally talented horse than Good Magic and if the trainers were flipped it wouldnt even be a conversation. Good Magic would never be even close to McKinzie. Chad Brown is a great trainer. Thats the main advantage Good Magic has. The pure hatred for Bolt d'Oro is mind boggling. Lets spin stats on all the other contenders too... smh... Yeah he didnt hit the wire in front of McKinzie and Justify, most of these horses wouldnt.

https://image.ibb.co/giW99H/Juvy.png

depalma113
04-24-2018, 11:11 PM
I think they said the same thing about Quiet American in the 1998 Kentucky Derby. They got a little over 8-1.

One was in his third crop of racers, the other is in his thirteenth.

Spalding No!
04-25-2018, 12:04 AM
One was in his third crop of racers, the other is in his thirteenth.
Bolt D'Oro is from Medaglia D'Oro's 10th crop. Point taken regardless.

That aside, there is plenty of stamina in the fillies and the turf males. Additionally, there is no shortage of 9f dirt winners in an age where there is a clear dearth of graded stakes at 10f or more.

PowerUpPaynter
04-25-2018, 11:52 AM
https://twitter.com/TravisStone/status/988832222361849856

BlueChip@DRF
04-25-2018, 12:57 PM
https://twitter.com/TravisStone/status/988832222361849856

Ummmm.... I'm going to go with no. All tracks do not play the same. All gate breaks do not play the same. Field sizes would be different. Just no.

f2tornado
04-25-2018, 01:30 PM
https://twitter.com/TravisStone/status/988832222361849856

Or the figure for the Santa Anita is garbage.

Published Beyer figures are the result of routine adjustment based on subjective interpretation of the raw figure. Beyer himself said this about Bolt's performance in the FrontRunner...

“But if Bolt d’Oro ran a 113, the colts finishing 2-3-4 would have earned figures of 100, 96 and 91. Each of the top four finishers would have improved between 16 and 28 points over his previous career best. My experience in making figures tells me that such a scenario is almost unbelievable.”

Maybe he's right but unbelievable does not mean it's a fact. Maybe Beyer needs an open mind.

PowerUpPaynter
04-25-2018, 01:39 PM
Anyone have hard data to prove or disprove the Santa Anita surface being very slow?

GMB@BP
04-25-2018, 02:45 PM
Or the figure for the Santa Anita is garbage.

Published Beyer figures are the result of routine adjustment based on subjective interpretation of the raw figure. Beyer himself said this about Bolt's performance in the FrontRunner...

“But if Bolt d’Oro ran a 113, the colts finishing 2-3-4 would have earned figures of 100, 96 and 91. Each of the top four finishers would have improved between 16 and 28 points over his previous career best. My experience in making figures tells me that such a scenario is almost unbelievable.”

Maybe he's right but unbelievable does not mean it's a fact. Maybe Beyer needs an open mind.

How come Santa Anita turf horses are getting so low of figures but are running final times much faster than a few years ago...yet they ship and lose (see Kee last couple weeks)

I dont get it, please explain. The raw times are so fast.

cj
04-25-2018, 03:13 PM
Or the figure for the Santa Anita is garbage.

Published Beyer figures are the result of routine adjustment based on subjective interpretation of the raw figure. Beyer himself said this about Bolt's performance in the FrontRunner...

“But if Bolt d’Oro ran a 113, the colts finishing 2-3-4 would have earned figures of 100, 96 and 91. Each of the top four finishers would have improved between 16 and 28 points over his previous career best. My experience in making figures tells me that such a scenario is almost unbelievable.”

Maybe he's right but unbelievable does not mean it's a fact. Maybe Beyer needs an open mind.

Every reputable figure maker I've seen has that as the fastest prep race.

f2tornado
04-25-2018, 03:30 PM
How come Santa Anita turf horses are getting so low of figures but are running final times much faster than a few years ago...yet they ship and lose (see Kee last couple weeks)

I dont get it, please explain. The raw times are so fast.

I don't follow SA turf horses much but I concur insofar as the few clocks I've seen have been respectable. I cannot speak for their shipping figures and therefore will refrain from answering the question.

For what it's worth, I can also state with some confidence the wet sealed track at SA is running quicker than the fast track. I don't deny a surface impacts running times. I'm merely skeptical the main track is suddenly a full 2.2 seconds slower that in was in 2014. I'm all ears if someone has some insight to a change in track maintenance there that would cause this precipitous decline.

jay68802
04-25-2018, 03:39 PM
Santa Anita slowed their track to try and reduce fatal break downs. They are using a lot less clay in the soil mixture now.

GMB@BP
04-25-2018, 03:46 PM
Santa Anita slowed their track to try and reduce fatal break downs. They are using a lot less clay in the soil mixture now.

They have also been adding material to the top mix in an effort to provide more cushion, this started about 4-5 years ago but every year its been altered.

jay68802
04-25-2018, 03:52 PM
They have also been adding material to the top mix in an effort to provide more cushion, this started about 4-5 years ago but every year its been altered.

Well at least now they know the mixture for both a fast and slow track.

cj
04-25-2018, 04:42 PM
Anyone have hard data to prove or disprove the Santa Anita surface being very slow?

Just for you :), and I do this each year to make sure figs aren't drifting astray anyway, I checked all the shippers into and out of Santa Anita in 2018 that ran on dirt at a similar distance, within a furlong.

I had 65 horses shipping out, 18 shipping in.

Horses shipping out had an average speed figure change of +1 point (faster) and the median was 0. That is just about perfect.

Horses shipping in (small sample) had an average speed figure change of +1 (also faster) and the median was also 1 faster.



One point in either direction is insignificant. The horses running on the slower dirt at Santa Anita are not being overrated in my sample. Those shipping out are running similar speed figures, and those shipping in are not jumping up like they would be if the SA horses were rated too highly.

SkunkApe
04-25-2018, 05:08 PM
Just for you :), and I do this each year to make sure figs aren't drifting astray anyway, I checked all the shippers into and out of Santa Anita in 2018 that ran on dirt at a similar distance, within a furlong.

I had 65 horses shipping out, 18 shipping in.

Horses shipping out had an average speed figure change of +1 point (faster) and the median was 0. That is just about perfect.

Horses shipping in (small sample) had an average speed figure change of +1 (also faster) and the median was also 1 faster.



One point in either direction is insignificant. The horses running on the slower dirt at Santa Anita are not being overrated in my sample. Those shipping out are running similar speed figures, and those shipping in are not jumping up like they would be if the SA horses were rated too highly.

Good work. Thanks.

dballard125
04-25-2018, 06:11 PM
After watching all of the preps, and looking at the data that I have available, I won’t be playing Bolt on top of any of my tickets. I just have the feeling 10f isn’t going to be in his wheelhouse. Maybe I’m wrong and it bites me in the ass, but you gotta stand with a lot of these horses.

JJMartin
04-25-2018, 08:01 PM
Well at least now they know the mixture for both a fast and slow track.
check pm

PowerUpPaynter
04-26-2018, 06:50 AM
Just for you :), and I do this each year to make sure figs aren't drifting astray anyway, I checked all the shippers into and out of Santa Anita in 2018 that ran on dirt at a similar distance, within a furlong.

I had 65 horses shipping out, 18 shipping in.

Horses shipping out had an average speed figure change of +1 point (faster) and the median was 0. That is just about perfect.

Horses shipping in (small sample) had an average speed figure change of +1 (also faster) and the median was also 1 faster.



One point in either direction is insignificant. The horses running on the slower dirt at Santa Anita are not being overrated in my sample. Those shipping out are running similar speed figures, and those shipping in are not jumping up like they would be if the SA horses were rated too highly.

awesome! with that said Bolt is a major player. there really is nothing to suggest he is distance limited and a longer stretch run should only benefit him.

CincyHorseplayer
04-26-2018, 07:36 AM
awesome! with that said Bolt is a major player. there really is nothing to suggest he is distance limited and a longer stretch run should only benefit him.

PUP the stamina ratings I use from Progressive have him top notch on both sides of the pedigree. He has tactical speed and won't need to be used desperately early as the front end will have more company. I think he is ready to explode and run a huge race. Of the horses I think can win but have odds that will be higher than 5-1 only him and Audible are under consideration for a win bet. I love everything about this horse and the competition he has faced flatters him. They on the other hand won't have it so easy IMO! That he has Ruis also makes him an overlay. I bet the horse not the man. You have an identical form cycle to Good Magic and this is the faster and more talented horse, yet that one will get pounded because of the Chad Brown factor. Not buyin it! Good for us!

Gerard02
04-27-2018, 08:24 PM
PUP the stamina ratings I use from Progressive have him top notch on both sides of the pedigree. He has tactical speed and won't need to be used desperately early as the front end will have more company. I think he is ready to explode and run a huge race. Of the horses I think can win but have odds that will be higher than 5-1 only him and Audible are under consideration for a win bet. I love everything about this horse and the competition he has faced flatters him. They on the other hand won't have it so easy IMO! That he has Ruis also makes him an overlay. I bet the horse not the man. You have an identical form cycle to Good Magic and this is the faster and more talented horse, yet that one will get pounded because of the Chad Brown factor. Not buyin it! Good for us!

I’m going to agree with you on Bolt. I like his numbers. Even though, he could not catch Justify, he put in a gutsy race. I averaged out the Beyers and he said number two with 101.5. Justify is tops with a 104 average. Still time to think over a ticket, but these two dudes are in.

Gerard02
04-27-2018, 08:25 PM
Audible is third with a 99 average. I took their 2018 races and averaged out the Beyers.