Charting The Morning Line Favorites — creating an index!!!

[TheOracle]

Started charting the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 by number of daily wins for each month since February

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavschartindx.png

Getting interested in patterns that look like an upside down v or /\

Seems whenever there are less than 4 wins on a particular day from this group you get a spike on the next racing day in some instances

Will start checking the chart on a daily basis following the MLFI or Morning Line Favorite Index for each of the N.Y. tracks

[TheOracle]

Will check the Index just for Dirt since Morning Line Favorites do horribly on the Turf at least so far at Aqueduct!!!

[TheOracle]

I forgot today was the last day of racing at Aqueduct!!!

On to Belmont!!!

[TheOracle]

We got a nice spike today as 6 of 11 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were winners today at Aqueduct!!!

Aqueduct gave Chalk players a nice send off but that won’t continue at Belmont!!!

Chart Index for April will be in another post!!!

[TheOracle]

We got a nice spike today as 6 of 11 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were winners today at Aqueduct!!!

Aqueduct gave Chalk players a nice send off but that won’t continue at Belmont!!!

Chart Index for April will be in another post!!!

Will create the same type of index for Belmont I'm doubtful if there will be the same type of upward spikes like it was for Aqueduct!!!

[TheOracle]

We got a nice spike today as 6 of 11 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were winners today at Aqueduct!!!

Aqueduct gave Chalk players a nice send off but that won’t continue at Belmont!!!

Chart Index for April will be in another post!!!

The final month at Aqueduct for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 saw a nice spike on the last day of the season!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsaquapr.png

It was the only time there was a spike after a day with 4 wins!!!

Belmont's Index should be interesting!!!

[JJMartin]

The % hit rate for that range will maintain it's rate sporadically. Like flipping a coin will ultimately produce a .5 rate with frequent streaks on either side. I wouldn't put any faith in this endeavor, it is similar to betting when a win is perceived to be "due".

I created a system based on this principle for craps; wait for a 7 to roll then place the 6 and 8, remove both when either 6 or 8 hits and then wait for 7 again and start over. Eventually a streak of 7's occurs, which is infrequent but will happen at some point, and destroys everything.

[TheOracle]

The % hit rate for that range will maintain it's rate sporadically. Like flipping a coin will ultimately produce a .5 rate with frequent streaks on either side. I wouldn't put any faith in this endeavor, it is similar to betting when a win is perceived to be "due".

I created a system based on this principle for craps; wait for a 7 to roll then place the 6 and 8, remove both when either 6 or 8 hits and then wait for 7 again and start over. Eventually a streak of 7's occurs, which is infrequent but will happen at some point, and destroys everything.

Hey JJ

Yeah, it makes me want to go back to prior months and get the hit rates for each month for previous years and compare

It could be some months are just better than others for whatever reason but it would be interesting to see the prior hit rates over the course of time

[TheOracle]

The final month at Aqueduct for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 saw a nice spike on the last day of the season!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsaquapr.png

It was the only time there was a spike after a day with 4 wins!!!

Belmont's Index should be interesting!!!

The Belmont Index for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as a group was not what I was expecting

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavindxbel.png

There are not as many spikes as I would have hoped.

I guess since Aqueduct was only running 3 times a week at, one point, the spikes from 3 wins to 5 or 6 wins were more emphatic

However, since Belmont runs more often and with more races, the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as a group were winning at a rate of about 3 to 4 per day which didn't yield as much of a spike as I was initially hoping

I suspect it will be much the same this year but I will continue to track it for this season

[TheOracle]

Started charting the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont for 2018

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belfavslsthrone.png

There were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 yesterday I suspect that number will drop significantly today!!!

I should get the upside down v shape today /\ will have to wait until Wednesday to see if there is a spike after today!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 04-29-2018 1st race 1 Mar Vista Miguel (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs R Crichton 6/5# Turf
2 04-29-2018 1st race 6 Shiraz (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs M J Maker 9/5# Turf
3 04-29-2018 2nd race 1 Operator (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile W I Mott 6/5# Dirt
4 04-29-2018 2nd race 1A Maimo (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile C Summers 6/5# Dirt
5 04-29-2018 2nd race 6 Champagne Papi (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile A C Adsit 5/2# Dirt
6 04-29-2018 3rd race 1 Crimson Frost (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile L Rice 2/1# Dirt
7 04-29-2018 3rd race 3 Caledonia Road (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile R E Nicks 1/2# Dirt
8 04-29-2018 4th race 2 Catch a Cab (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M E Casse 6/5# Turf
9 04-29-2018 5th race 1 Consensus Thinking (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs C C Brown 9/5# Dirt
10 04-29-2018 5th race 3 Ajnadeen (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
11 04-29-2018 6th race 4 Eloweasel (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs D G Donk 9/5# Turf
12 04-29-2018 6th race 7 First Appeal (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 7/5# Turf
13 04-29-2018 7th race 3 Straightaway May (FL) Claiming Seven Furlongs W A Ward 2/1# Dirt
14 04-29-2018 8th race 1 Stormy Victoria (FR) Stakes Six Furlongs C Clement 7/5# Turf
15 04-29-2018 9th race 4 La Manche (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 8/5# Turf
16 04-29-2018 9th race 7 Run for Boston (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J T Ryerson 5/2# Turf
Let's see what this group does today!!!

[andicap]

There is one use for this chart I can see.

Would there be a better chance for a track bias on days when few ML faves won? When form is losing, a bias could be one reason why.

At least we can investigate those days when ML faves win 0-2 races.

[TheOracle]

There is one use for this chart I can see.

Would there be a better chance for a track bias on days when few ML faves won? When form is losing, a bias could be one reason why.

At least we can investigate those days when ML faves win 0-2 races.

Hey Andi

Yeah I’m just trying to see if there is a spike on a day where the Morning Line Favorites as a group had a bad day or two previously at Belmont

So I’m looking to see if I get that upside down v /\ shape for a spike or some shape close to it in a graph

On Sunday, I was thinking there would be a sharp decline since there were 6 that won from this group the day before which was Saturday

However, I was wrong, there were 5 winners from this group on Sunday so the decline from 6 was only -1 in this case 5 which is not as sharp of a decline as I expected

So I’m trying to see if there is some consistency in either going with the Morning Line Favorites or in going against them as a group based on what happened on previous racing days

[TheOracle]

Started charting the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont for 2018

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belfavslsthrone.png

There were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 yesterday I suspect that number will drop significantly today!!!

I should get the upside down v shape today /\ will have to wait until Wednesday to see if there is a spike after today!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 04-29-2018 1st race 1 Mar Vista Miguel (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs R Crichton 6/5# Turf
2 04-29-2018 1st race 6 Shiraz (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs M J Maker 9/5# Turf
3 04-29-2018 2nd race 1 Operator (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile W I Mott 6/5# Dirt
4 04-29-2018 2nd race 1A Maimo (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile C Summers 6/5# Dirt
5 04-29-2018 2nd race 6 Champagne Papi (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile A C Adsit 5/2# Dirt
6 04-29-2018 3rd race 1 Crimson Frost (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile L Rice 2/1# Dirt
7 04-29-2018 3rd race 3 Caledonia Road (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile R E Nicks 1/2# Dirt
8 04-29-2018 4th race 2 Catch a Cab (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M E Casse 6/5# Turf
9 04-29-2018 5th race 1 Consensus Thinking (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs C C Brown 9/5# Dirt
10 04-29-2018 5th race 3 Ajnadeen (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
11 04-29-2018 6th race 4 Eloweasel (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs D G Donk 9/5# Turf
12 04-29-2018 6th race 7 First Appeal (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 7/5# Turf
13 04-29-2018 7th race 3 Straightaway May (FL) Claiming Seven Furlongs W A Ward 2/1# Dirt
14 04-29-2018 8th race 1 Stormy Victoria (FR) Stakes Six Furlongs C Clement 7/5# Turf
15 04-29-2018 9th race 4 La Manche (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 8/5# Turf
16 04-29-2018 9th race 7 Run for Boston (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J T Ryerson 5/2# Turf
Let's see what this group does today!!!


There was only a slight tick downward from last Sunday's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 but you did get 5 winners from the group

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belfavssndy.png

I suspect that today the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will take another step in the downward direction from among these today:


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-03-2018 1st race 5 Mae Never No (IRE) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs W A Ward 5/2# Dirt
2 05-03-2018 1st race 6 Give Me a Hug (NY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 6/5# Dirt
3 05-03-2018 2nd race 2 Change of Venue (KY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
4 05-03-2018 2nd race 5 Brideys Kitten (KY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs T Albertrani 5/2# Dirt
5 05-03-2018 3rd race 5 Almithmaar (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile K P McLaughlin 8/5# Dirt
6 05-03-2018 3rd race 6 Earned Success (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile C C Brown 9/5# Dirt
7 05-03-2018 4th race 4 No Limit Babe (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Turf
8 05-03-2018 5th race 1 The Cake Is a Lie (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs A Arriaga 5/2# Dirt
9 05-03-2018 5th race 5 Loose (FL) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
10 05-03-2018 6th race 5 Magari (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs H J Bond 2/1# Dirt
11 05-03-2018 6th race 6 Bowl of Kisses (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
12 05-03-2018 7th race 6 Conquest Bigluck E (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles G P Gullo 6/5# Dirt
13 05-03-2018 8th race 1 Vortex Road (NY) Allowance One And One Eighth Miles B N Levine 8/5# Turf
14 05-03-2018 8th race 1A Unbridledadventure (NY) Allowance One And One Eighth Miles B N Levine 8/5# Turf
15 05-03-2018 8th race 2 Talkn Til Midnight (NY) Allowance One And One Eighth Miles L Rice 2/1# Turf
16 05-03-2018 9th race 11 Fact Check (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs J Servis 2/1# Turf
17 05-03-2018 9th race 5 Go Big Or Go Home (KY) (MTO) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 8/5# Turf
I haven't been checking today but let's see how they do!!!

[TheOracle]

Once again, there were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 at Belmont yesterday so I am expecting a significant drop today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfavs.png

I should get that downward slope today \ which might complete the upside down v shape or /\ and we look for the possible spike tomorrow!!!

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was up +1 from yesterday but I was looking for the big crash although it could come today!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-04-2018 1st race 1 Social Fan (WV) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 1/2# Dirt
2 05-04-2018 1st race 1A Flat Rate (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 1/2# Dirt
3 05-04-2018 2nd race 1 Regal Dame (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M J Maker 2/1# Turf
4 05-04-2018 2nd race 4 La Piu Bella (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles D Gargan 7/5# Turf
5 05-04-2018 2nd race 3 Salty Smile (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 9/5# Turf
6 05-04-2018 3rd race 6 Hyndford (KY) Starter Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 2/5# Dirt
7 05-04-2018 4th race 1 Miko (KY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Turf
8 05-04-2018 4th race 3 Hardly Mate (NY) Claiming One Mile M J Maker 2/1# Turf
9 05-04-2018 5th race 2 Sower (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs L Rice 6/5# Dirt
10 05-04-2018 5th race 5 Posse Needed (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs M A Hennig 5/2# Dirt
11 05-04-2018 6th race 7 Fiduciary Values (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile C C Brown 5/2# Dirt
12 05-04-2018 7th race 4 Benefactor (KY) Claiming One Mile M J Maker 5/2# Turf
13 05-04-2018 8th race 1 Hard Study (KY) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles T A Pletcher 8/5# Dirt
14 05-04-2018 9th race 4 Curtis (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 8/5# Dirt
15 05-04-2018 9th race 8 Toohottoevenspeak (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 2/1# Dirt
Let's see what this group does today!!!

[TheOracle]

Once again, there were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 at Belmont yesterday so I am expecting a significant drop today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfavs.png

I should get that downward slope today \ which might complete the upside down v shape or /\ and we look for the possible spike tomorrow!!!

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was up +1 from yesterday but I was looking for the big crash although it could come today!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-04-2018 1st race 1 Social Fan (WV) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 1/2# Dirt
2 05-04-2018 1st race 1A Flat Rate (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 1/2# Dirt
3 05-04-2018 2nd race 1 Regal Dame (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M J Maker 2/1# Turf
4 05-04-2018 2nd race 4 La Piu Bella (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles D Gargan 7/5# Turf
5 05-04-2018 2nd race 3 Salty Smile (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 9/5# Turf
6 05-04-2018 3rd race 6 Hyndford (KY) Starter Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 2/5# Dirt
7 05-04-2018 4th race 1 Miko (KY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Turf
8 05-04-2018 4th race 3 Hardly Mate (NY) Claiming One Mile M J Maker 2/1# Turf
9 05-04-2018 5th race 2 Sower (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs L Rice 6/5# Dirt
10 05-04-2018 5th race 5 Posse Needed (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs M A Hennig 5/2# Dirt
11 05-04-2018 6th race 7 Fiduciary Values (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile C C Brown 5/2# Dirt
12 05-04-2018 7th race 4 Benefactor (KY) Claiming One Mile M J Maker 5/2# Turf
13 05-04-2018 8th race 1 Hard Study (KY) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles T A Pletcher 8/5# Dirt
14 05-04-2018 9th race 4 Curtis (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 8/5# Dirt
15 05-04-2018 9th race 8 Toohottoevenspeak (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 2/1# Dirt
Let's see what this group does today!!!

There were only 3 winners yesterday from this group which is what we suspected

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsystbel.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -3 from yesterday as there were only 3 winners from this group which we suspected and we now have the upside down v shape /\

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) beat other MLFI's 2 to 1

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/chrtmlfavsbel.png


There are 16 horses today with Morning Lines less than 3-1 there could be a spike today of 5 or more since there are 12 races and I would suspect that most if not all of the 5 would be on the Dirt from today's group:


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-05-2018 1st race 4 Summer Punch (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 1/1# Dirt
2 05-05-2018 1st race 5 Jump for Joy (PA) Claiming Six Furlongs C Baker 8/5# Dirt
3 05-05-2018 2nd race 5 Grand Valour (NY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Turf
4 05-05-2018 3rd race 1 Mister Hayes (FL) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M Nevin 2/1# Dirt
5 05-05-2018 4th race 7 Guerriere (IRE) Allowance Six Furlongs C C Brown 5/2# Turf
6 05-05-2018 4th race 8 Misericordia (GB) Allowance Six Furlongs A E Goldberg 2/1# Turf
7 05-05-2018 5th race 1 Fast Getaway (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
8 05-05-2018 6th race 3 Holy Helena (ON) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles J A Jerkens 7/5# Turf
9 05-05-2018 6th race 6 Santa Monica (GB) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
10 05-05-2018 7th race 3 Big Guy Ian (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 8/5# Dirt
11 05-05-2018 9th race 3 Patternrecognition (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
12 05-05-2018 9th race 6 Wonderful Light (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
13 05-05-2018 10th race 8 Silverwave (FR) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 2/1# Turf
14 05-05-2018 11th race 2 Cloud Computing (KY) Stakes One Mile C C Brown 1/1# Dirt
15 05-05-2018 11th race 5 Tommy Macho (KY) Stakes One Mile T A Pletcher 5/2# Dirt
16 05-05-2018 12th race 11 Pence (NY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Turf
17 05-05-2018 12th race 13 Playwright (NY) (MTO) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs D Gargan 9/5# Turf
Let's see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

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There are 16 horses today with Morning Lines less than 3-1 there could be a spike today of 5 or more since there are 12 races and I would suspect that most if not all of the 5 would be on the Dirt from today's group:


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-05-2018 1st race 4 Summer Punch (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 1/1# Dirt
2 05-05-2018 1st race 5 Jump for Joy (PA) Claiming Six Furlongs C Baker 8/5# Dirt
3 05-05-2018 2nd race 5 Grand Valour (NY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Turf
4 05-05-2018 3rd race 1 Mister Hayes (FL) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M Nevin 2/1# Dirt
5 05-05-2018 4th race 7 Guerriere (IRE) Allowance Six Furlongs C C Brown 5/2# Turf
6 05-05-2018 4th race 8 Misericordia (GB) Allowance Six Furlongs A E Goldberg 2/1# Turf
7 05-05-2018 5th race 1 Fast Getaway (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
8 05-05-2018 6th race 3 Holy Helena (ON) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles J A Jerkens 7/5# Turf
9 05-05-2018 6th race 6 Santa Monica (GB) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
10 05-05-2018 7th race 3 Big Guy Ian (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 8/5# Dirt
11 05-05-2018 9th race 3 Patternrecognition (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
12 05-05-2018 9th race 6 Wonderful Light (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
13 05-05-2018 10th race 8 Silverwave (FR) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 2/1# Turf
14 05-05-2018 11th race 2 Cloud Computing (KY) Stakes One Mile C C Brown 1/1# Dirt
15 05-05-2018 11th race 5 Tommy Macho (KY) Stakes One Mile T A Pletcher 5/2# Dirt
16 05-05-2018 12th race 11 Pence (NY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Turf
17 05-05-2018 12th race 13 Playwright (NY) (MTO) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs D Gargan 9/5# Turf
Let's see what happens!!!


Yesterday's Morning Lines less than 3-1 laid a bunch of eggs going 3 for 16.

I was expecting 5 wins and an upward spike but instead got a flat slope __

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belfavsmay.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is 0 and stays the same as yesterday as once again there were only 3 winners from this group

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belfavsmayfvsts.png

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin

[TheOracle]

From what I’ve seen if there is a spike from a 3 win day it usually goes to +1 so maybe 4 wins today from this group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

However, even that’s a stretch as there are 5 Turf races today at Belmont


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-06-2018 1st race 2 Lipstickonmycollar (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs C J Englehart 2/1# Dirt
2 05-06-2018 2nd race 6 English Dancer (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 5/2# Turf
3 05-06-2018 3rd race 5 Anazara (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs W I Mott 8/5# Dirt
4 05-06-2018 3rd race 6 Saturdays Vapor (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs D A Cannizzo 2/1# Dirt
5 05-06-2018 4th race 2 Bad Student (KY) Claiming One Mile R Diodoro 5/2# Dirt
6 05-06-2018 4th race 5 Abounding Legacy (FL) Claiming One Mile R E Nicks 2/1# Dirt
7 05-06-2018 5th race 1 Course Correction (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Fourth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
8 05-06-2018 6th race 1 Breaking the Rules (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs C R McGaughey III 8/5# Dirt
9 05-06-2018 6th race 3 Pop the Hood (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs R A Ubillo 2/1# Dirt
10 05-06-2018 7th race 7 Shalako (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M Nevin 5/2# Turf
11 05-06-2018 8th race 1 Faypien (FL) Stakes One Mile B Baffert 5/2# Dirt
12 05-06-2018 8th race 6 Unchained Melody (KY) Stakes One Mile B A Lynch 9/5# Dirt
13 05-06-2018 9th race 1 Preservationist (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J A Jerkens 6/5# Turf
14 05-06-2018 10th race 15 Andretta (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs H J Bond 8/5# Turf


Let’s see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

From what I’ve seen if there is a spike from a 3 win day it usually goes to +1 so maybe 4 wins today from this group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

However, even that’s a stretch as there are 5 Turf races today at Belmont


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-06-2018 1st race 2 Lipstickonmycollar (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs C J Englehart 2/1# Dirt
2 05-06-2018 2nd race 6 English Dancer (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 5/2# Turf
3 05-06-2018 3rd race 5 Anazara (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs W I Mott 8/5# Dirt
4 05-06-2018 3rd race 6 Saturdays Vapor (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs D A Cannizzo 2/1# Dirt
5 05-06-2018 4th race 2 Bad Student (KY) Claiming One Mile R Diodoro 5/2# Dirt
6 05-06-2018 4th race 5 Abounding Legacy (FL) Claiming One Mile R E Nicks 2/1# Dirt
7 05-06-2018 5th race 1 Course Correction (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Fourth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
8 05-06-2018 6th race 1 Breaking the Rules (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs C R McGaughey III 8/5# Dirt
9 05-06-2018 6th race 3 Pop the Hood (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs R A Ubillo 2/1# Dirt
10 05-06-2018 7th race 7 Shalako (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M Nevin 5/2# Turf
11 05-06-2018 8th race 1 Faypien (FL) Stakes One Mile B Baffert 5/2# Dirt
12 05-06-2018 8th race 6 Unchained Melody (KY) Stakes One Mile B A Lynch 9/5# Dirt
13 05-06-2018 9th race 1 Preservationist (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J A Jerkens 6/5# Turf
14 05-06-2018 10th race 15 Andretta (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs H J Bond 8/5# Turf
Let’s see what happens!!!


I was expecting a spike last Sunday of 4 wins but there were only 3 wins from this group so once again, we got a flat slope __

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmaysix.png

Sunday's MLF's only had 3 wins from their group


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsummaysx.png

Other MLF's once again beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was 0 and stayed the same as Saturday

[TheOracle]

I was sure that by Wednesday there would have been a spike in wins from the MLF's but that did not happen as there were only 2 winners from among the group and so we got a downward slope and a slight upside down v

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmayelv.png

Yesterday's MLF's only had 2 wins from their group

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmayelvsum.png

Other MLF's shutout 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 0 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is -1

I was hoping for a big spike today but that is not likely to happen as Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been struggling in Turf races since opening day

They are involved with 6 today

Here are today's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1:


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-11-2018 1st race 3 Zechariah (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles H G Motion 5/2# Turf
2 05-11-2018 1st race 6 Blurred Line (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles D Gargan 1/1# Turf
3 05-11-2018 1st race 2 Surface Strike (NY) (MTO) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 6/5# Turf
4 05-11-2018 2nd race 4 Princess Maeve (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
5 05-11-2018 2nd race 5 Pumpernickel Basil (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
6 05-11-2018 3rd race 2 Believe Indeed (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles D S Ryan 8/5# Turf
7 05-11-2018 3rd race 3 Patriotic Endeavor (KY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles L Rice 5/2# Turf
8 05-11-2018 4th race 6 Devamani (FR) Allowance One And One Fourth Miles C Clement 9/5# Turf
9 05-11-2018 4th race 5 Halloween Horror (KY) (MTO) Allowance One And One Fourth Miles J P Terranova II 6/5# Turf
10 05-11-2018 5th race 1 No Need to Appeal (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 2/1# Dirt
11 05-11-2018 5th race 2 Short Kakes (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D A Cannizzo 5/2# Dirt
12 05-11-2018 6th race 7 Special Trip (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles J R Abreu 5/2# Turf
13 05-11-2018 8th race 2 Inspector Lynley (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile C R McGaughey III 9/5# Turf
14 05-11-2018 8th race 5 Hoffenheim (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 7/5# Turf
15 05-11-2018 9th race 5 Tres Charmant (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Turf
16 05-11-2018 9th race 11 Ribbonite (NY) (MTO) Claiming Six Furlongs D Gargan 2/1# Turf
Let's see how they do today!!!

[GMB@BP]

This may be a really dumb question, and explained in prior posts, any particular reason why you are charting this?

[TheOracle]

This may be a really dumb question, and explained in prior posts, any particular reason why you are charting this?

Hey GMB

I just wanted see if there are times when the Morning Line Favorites, in particular those less than 3-1, win more so than at other times

At Aqueduct there were many instances when the Morning Line Favorites as a group did well, say won 5 or 6 races in one day, then they would come back the next day and lay an egg with 2 or 3 wins for the day

So I started charting wins at Aqueduct the spikes were pretty noticeable but so far the same can’t be said about Belmont

Let’s keep an eye on them!!!

[TheOracle]

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I was hoping for a big spike today but that is not likely to happen as Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been struggling in Turf races since opening day

They are involved with 6 today

Here are today's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1:


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-11-2018 1st race 3 Zechariah (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles H G Motion 5/2# Turf
2 05-11-2018 1st race 6 Blurred Line (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles D Gargan 1/1# Turf
3 05-11-2018 1st race 2 Surface Strike (NY) (MTO) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 6/5# Turf
4 05-11-2018 2nd race 4 Princess Maeve (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
5 05-11-2018 2nd race 5 Pumpernickel Basil (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
6 05-11-2018 3rd race 2 Believe Indeed (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles D S Ryan 8/5# Turf
7 05-11-2018 3rd race 3 Patriotic Endeavor (KY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles L Rice 5/2# Turf
8 05-11-2018 4th race 6 Devamani (FR) Allowance One And One Fourth Miles C Clement 9/5# Turf
9 05-11-2018 4th race 5 Halloween Horror (KY) (MTO) Allowance One And One Fourth Miles J P Terranova II 6/5# Turf
10 05-11-2018 5th race 1 No Need to Appeal (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 2/1# Dirt
11 05-11-2018 5th race 2 Short Kakes (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D A Cannizzo 5/2# Dirt
12 05-11-2018 6th race 7 Special Trip (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles J R Abreu 5/2# Turf
13 05-11-2018 8th race 2 Inspector Lynley (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile C R McGaughey III 9/5# Turf
14 05-11-2018 8th race 5 Hoffenheim (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 7/5# Turf
15 05-11-2018 9th race 5 Tres Charmant (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Turf
16 05-11-2018 9th race 11 Ribbonite (NY) (MTO) Claiming Six Furlongs D Gargan 2/1# Turf
Let's see how they do today!!!


There was a slight spike yesterday as there were 3 winners from this group

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfelvmay.png

With 6 Turf races yesterday the 3 win total is about what was expected

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsmryelv.png

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is +1

I am expecting this group to do better maybe 5 wins today as they are involved in only 4 Turf races


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-12-2018 1st race 2 A True Giant (NY) Allowance Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 6/5# Dirt
2 05-12-2018 3rd race 1 Sounds Delicious (KY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Dirt
3 05-12-2018 3rd race 3 Chalon (KY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs A Delacour 5/2# Dirt
4 05-12-2018 3rd race 6 Holiday Disguise (NY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 9/5# Dirt
5 05-12-2018 5th race 5 Voodoo Song (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Turf
6 05-12-2018 5th race 7 American Guru (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs J A Jerkens 1/1# Turf
7 05-12-2018 5th race 1 Forge (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 4/5# Turf
8 05-12-2018 6th race 2 Patch (KY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 9/5# Dirt
9 05-12-2018 7th race 2 Cloontia (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J A Jerkens 5/2# Turf
10 05-12-2018 7th race 13 Gucci Factor (NY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C Clement 2/1# Turf
11 05-12-2018 8th race 1 Skylers Scramjet (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs M Nevin 7/5# Dirt
12 05-12-2018 8th race 2 Westwood (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
13 05-12-2018 9th race 2 Inflexibility (ON) Stakes One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 8/5# Turf
14 05-12-2018 9th race 6 A Raving Beauty (GER) Stakes One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 2/1# Turf
15 05-12-2018 10th race 1 Core Beliefs (KY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles P Eurton 2/1# Dirt
16 05-12-2018 11th race 7 Hi Happy (ARG) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles T A Pletcher 5/2# Turf


Let's see how they do today at Belmont!!!

[GMB@BP]

I believe as a point of information maybe a the last month of aqueduct, and now Belmont, they changed morning line makers. The guy making the morning line is a very astute handicapper. Not sure the numbers have bore that out as he is only trying to predict what the public will do but I thought it worth mentioning.

[TheOracle]

I believe as a point of information maybe a the last month of aqueduct, and now Belmont, they changed morning line makers. The guy making the morning line is a very astute handicapper. Not sure the numbers have bore that out as he is only trying to predict what the public will do but I thought it worth mentioning.

Hey GMB

Yeah I hear you and I know it’s just a predictor for the public but I’m just interested to see what they actually go on to do and how many wins they happen to get with the tag of Morning Line Favorite (MLF) less than 3-1

It would actually be great if I could track the actual final odds but they change the odds while the race is running which has been posted in this forum many times so I use the Morning Lines

[TheOracle]

There was a slight spike yesterday as there were 3 winners from this group
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I am expecting this group to do better maybe 5 wins today as they are involved in only 4 Turf races


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-12-2018 1st race 2 A True Giant (NY) Allowance Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 6/5# Dirt
2 05-12-2018 3rd race 1 Sounds Delicious (KY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Dirt
3 05-12-2018 3rd race 3 Chalon (KY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs A Delacour 5/2# Dirt
4 05-12-2018 3rd race 6 Holiday Disguise (NY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 9/5# Dirt
5 05-12-2018 5th race 5 Voodoo Song (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Turf
6 05-12-2018 5th race 7 American Guru (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs J A Jerkens 1/1# Turf
7 05-12-2018 5th race 1 Forge (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 4/5# Turf
8 05-12-2018 6th race 2 Patch (KY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 9/5# Dirt
9 05-12-2018 7th race 2 Cloontia (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J A Jerkens 5/2# Turf
10 05-12-2018 7th race 13 Gucci Factor (NY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C Clement 2/1# Turf
11 05-12-2018 8th race 1 Skylers Scramjet (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs M Nevin 7/5# Dirt
12 05-12-2018 8th race 2 Westwood (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
13 05-12-2018 9th race 2 Inflexibility (ON) Stakes One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 8/5# Turf
14 05-12-2018 9th race 6 A Raving Beauty (GER) Stakes One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 2/1# Turf
15 05-12-2018 10th race 1 Core Beliefs (KY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles P Eurton 2/1# Dirt
16 05-12-2018 11th race 7 Hi Happy (ARG) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles T A Pletcher 5/2# Turf
Let's see how they do today at Belmont!!!


There was a slight spike yesterday as I expected 5 wins from the group but they could only sniff out 4 wins yesterday at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmaytwl.png

However, you did get a 28% return on your money playing them to win yesterday.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsmrytwl.png

A profit is very rare from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 but the upset in th 5th race from the Morning Line 5-2 winner #5 Voodoo Song helped to boost prices!!!

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 3 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +1

I am expecting this group to get close to 5 wins today as they are involved in only 1 Turf race today at Belmont

There are 3 even money Morning Line Favorites in the 3rd, 5th and 10th races!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-13-2018 1st race 3 Data Driven (KY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs D Jacobson 8/5# Dirt
2 05-13-2018 1st race 6 The Caretaker (NY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs K P McLaughlin 5/2# Dirt
3 05-13-2018 2nd race 1 Barefoot Angel (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C Baker 2/1# Dirt
4 05-13-2018 2nd race 2 Irish Marauder (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs G Weaver 5/2# Dirt
5 05-13-2018 3rd race 4 Engage (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs C C Brown 1/1# Dirt
6 05-13-2018 4th race 2 Panic Attack (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles G Sciacca 5/2# Dirt
7 05-13-2018 4th race 3 Santo Antonio (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 4/5# Dirt
8 05-13-2018 5th race 5 First Tomoe (KY) Claiming Seven Furlongs S M Asmussen 1/1# Dirt
9 05-13-2018 6th race 4 Rugbyman (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile H G Motion 5/2# Dirt
10 05-13-2018 7th race 2 Best Performance (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C Clement 5/2# Turf
11 05-13-2018 10th race 6 Battle of Saratoga (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles H G Motion 1/2# Dirt
Let's see how they do today!!!

[TheOracle]

I suspect the surface will be wet today at Belmont as the rain continues to drench the Tri-State area

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfevnmnywet.png

The even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) have won 14 of their last 18 races on a wet Surface at Belmont going back to May 11th, 2014!!!


3rd race
#4 Engage

5th race
#5 First Tomoe

10th race
#6 Battle of Saratoga

Let's see how these do today they won't pay much of a price but better to take it from them before they take it from you!!!

[TheOracle]

I suspect the surface will be wet today at Belmont as the rain continues to drench the Tri-State area

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfevnmnywet.png

The even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) have won 14 of their last 18 races on a wet Surface at Belmont going back to May 11th, 2014!!!


3rd race
#4 Engage

5th race
#5 First Tomoe

10th race
#6 Battle of Saratoga

Let's see how these do today they won't pay much of a price but better to take it from them before they take it from you!!!

Well the even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) went 1 for 2 yesterday as #5 First Tomoe disappointed and finished 3rd

However, #4 Engage got the win paying $3.5 for the win!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

As I always say it's much better to take it from them before they take it from you!!!

[TheOracle]

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I am expecting this group to get close to 5 wins today as they are involved in only 1 Turf race today at Belmont

There are 3 even money Morning Line Favorites in the 3rd, 5th and 10th races!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-13-2018 1st race 3 Data Driven (KY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs D Jacobson 8/5# Dirt
2 05-13-2018 1st race 6 The Caretaker (NY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs K P McLaughlin 5/2# Dirt
3 05-13-2018 2nd race 1 Barefoot Angel (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C Baker 2/1# Dirt
4 05-13-2018 2nd race 2 Irish Marauder (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs G Weaver 5/2# Dirt
5 05-13-2018 3rd race 4 Engage (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs C C Brown 1/1# Dirt
6 05-13-2018 4th race 2 Panic Attack (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles G Sciacca 5/2# Dirt
7 05-13-2018 4th race 3 Santo Antonio (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 4/5# Dirt
8 05-13-2018 5th race 5 First Tomoe (KY) Claiming Seven Furlongs S M Asmussen 1/1# Dirt
9 05-13-2018 6th race 4 Rugbyman (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile H G Motion 5/2# Dirt
10 05-13-2018 7th race 2 Best Performance (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C Clement 5/2# Turf
11 05-13-2018 10th race 6 Battle of Saratoga (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles H G Motion 1/2# Dirt
Let's see how they do today!!!

There was a slight drop yesterday as I expected 5 wins from the group but could only get 3 wins yesterday at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfgrphthrt.png

I don't think 5 or 6 wins will come from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 any time soon. The wins will hover around 3 or 4 per day from this group but let's keep an eye on them!!!

You lost $1 if you played all Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 to win yesterday due in part to the $18.10 payout across the board from #3 Data Driven per $2 win place and show wager

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmaythrt.png

One more win from the MLFs less than 3-1 would have put win returns on the plus side for the day

How I of all people could miss a horse called Data Driven I will never know!!!

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -1

I'm hoping for a spike next week of at least +1 to the index!!!

[TheOracle]

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I don't think 5 or 6 wins will come from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 any time soon. The wins will hover around 3 or 4 per day from this group but let's keep an eye on them!!!

You lost $1 if you played all Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 to win yesterday due in part to the $18.10 payout across the board from #3 Data Driven per $2 win place and show wager

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmaythrt.png

One more win from the MLFs less than 3-1 would have put win returns on the plus side for the day

How I of all people could miss a horse called Data Driven I will never know!!!

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -1

I'm hoping for a spike next week of at least +1 to the index!!!


There was a spike yesterday from the Morning Lines less than 3-1 they had 5 winners on the wet stuff at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmaysxtn.png

Interesting to note that 4 of the 5 winners came after the 5th race yesterday, including 2 back to back wins from the group to complete the late daily double along with exactas in the 5th race and 9th races!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsummaysxtn.png

Prior to the 4th race yesterday the Morning Lines less than 3-1 went 4 for their last 14 and then went on to win 4 of their last 7 races

The 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) crushed other MLF's by a 5 to 0 margin including 3 straight wins to complete the late pick 3 at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfltpckthr.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +2 since yesterday!!!

[TheOracle]

I suspect that the good times will not last today for the Morning Lines less than 3-1 at Belmont

I am thinking there will be at most 3 winners from this group today I suspect a downward slope \ today and possibly a spike tomorrow!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-17-2018 1st race 3 Stop Thinking (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile D Gargan 7/5# Dirt
2 05-17-2018 1st race 6 Carlisle Belle (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G Sciacca 2/1# Dirt
3 05-17-2018 2nd race 3 Outshine (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 4/5# Dirt
4 05-17-2018 3rd race 3 Classy Class (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
5 05-17-2018 3rd race 4 Favorable Outcome (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
6 05-17-2018 3rd race 5 Hoffenheim (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D Jacobson 5/2# Dirt
7 05-17-2018 4th race 1 High Moon (NY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M J Maker 8/5# Turf
8 05-17-2018 4th race 3 With Exultation (NY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles L Rice 7/5# Turf
9 05-17-2018 4th race 10 Mobridge (NY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 5/2# Turf
10 05-17-2018 4th race 7 Beckers Galaxy (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 2/1# Turf
11 05-17-2018 4th race 9 Pegasus Red (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles A C Avila 5/2# Turf
12 05-17-2018 5th race 1 Morning Buzz (FL) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs E R Barker 6/5# Dirt
13 05-17-2018 5th race 3 Full Salute (KY) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D Gargan 5/2# Dirt
14 05-17-2018 6th race 2 Deeply Undervalued (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 4/5# Turf
15 05-17-2018 7th race 4 Pas de Deuce (NY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile J Morrison 2/1# Dirt
16 05-17-2018 8th race 4 Awsum Roar (NY) Starter Allowance Six Furlongs J Servis 2/1# Turf
Let's see how the MLF's do today at Belmont!!!

[TheOracle]

I suspect that the good times will not last today for the Morning Lines less than 3-1 at Belmont

I am thinking there will be at most 3 winners from this group today I suspect a downward slope \ today and possibly a spike tomorrow!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-17-2018 1st race 3 Stop Thinking (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile D Gargan 7/5# Dirt
2 05-17-2018 1st race 6 Carlisle Belle (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G Sciacca 2/1# Dirt
3 05-17-2018 2nd race 3 Outshine (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 4/5# Dirt
4 05-17-2018 3rd race 3 Classy Class (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
5 05-17-2018 3rd race 4 Favorable Outcome (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
6 05-17-2018 3rd race 5 Hoffenheim (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D Jacobson 5/2# Dirt
7 05-17-2018 4th race 1 High Moon (NY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M J Maker 8/5# Turf
8 05-17-2018 4th race 3 With Exultation (NY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles L Rice 7/5# Turf
9 05-17-2018 4th race 10 Mobridge (NY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 5/2# Turf
10 05-17-2018 4th race 7 Beckers Galaxy (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 2/1# Turf
11 05-17-2018 4th race 9 Pegasus Red (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles A C Avila 5/2# Turf
12 05-17-2018 5th race 1 Morning Buzz (FL) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs E R Barker 6/5# Dirt
13 05-17-2018 5th race 3 Full Salute (KY) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D Gargan 5/2# Dirt
14 05-17-2018 6th race 2 Deeply Undervalued (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 4/5# Turf
15 05-17-2018 7th race 4 Pas de Deuce (NY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile J Morrison 2/1# Dirt
16 05-17-2018 8th race 4 Awsum Roar (NY) Starter Allowance Six Furlongs J Servis 2/1# Turf
Let's see how the MLF's do today at Belmont!!!

As expected there were only 3 winners from the group of Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1 yesterday at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmaysvtnchrt.png

We also got the downward slope \ that we were expecting as well completing the upside down v shape /\

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmaysvtnsum.png

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin

I don't think we will get a spike from the Morning Lines less than 3-1 today I suspect maybe a flat slope _ today so possibly 3 winners from among this group today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfstdy.png

Let's see how they do today at Belmont!!!

[TheOracle]

Well the even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) went 1 for 2 yesterday as #5 First Tomoe disappointed and finished 3rd

However, #4 Engage got the win paying $3.5 for the win!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

As I always say it's much better to take it from them before they take it from you!!!


There are 2 even money Morning Line Favorites in the 1st, 5th races today at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belevnmnywetdrt.png

The even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) have won 15 of their last 20 races on a wet Surface at Belmont going back to May 11th, 2014!!!

I suspect Brown will have a winner with this one in the 1st race today at Belmont

There should still be some moisture on the Dirt surface although the rain has slowed down within the Tri-State area

1st race
#7 Too Cool to Dance

Let's see if he can get this one to the winners circle today!!!

[TheOracle]

There are 2 even money Morning Line Favorites in the 1st, 5th races today at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belevnmnywetdrt.png

The even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) have won 15 of their last 20 races on a wet Surface at Belmont going back to May 11th, 2014!!!

I suspect Brown will have a winner with this one in the 1st race today at Belmont

There should still be some moisture on the Dirt surface although the rain has slowed down within the Tri-State area

1st race
#7 Too Cool to Dance

Let's see if he can get this one to the winners circle today!!!

Although #7 Too Cool to Dance ran on the Turf he still got the win paying $7.60 across the board!!! Take it from them before they take it from you!!!

This will not qualify for the study as the race was on the Turf

However, congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

Although #7 Too Cool to Dance ran on the Turf he still got the win paying $7.60 across the board!!! Take it from them before they take it from you!!!

This will not qualify for the study as the race was on the Turf

However, congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

Pletcher’s horse #3 Takechargedelilah got the win as the even money Morning Line Favorite on the wet Surface yesterday at Belmont paying $7.70 across the board!!! Take it from them before they take it from you!!!

The even money Morning Line Favorites have now won 16 of their last 21 on the wet Surface at Belmont!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

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I don't think we will get a spike from the Morning Lines less than 3-1 today I suspect maybe a flat slope _ today so possibly 3 winners from among this group today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfstdy.png

Let's see how they do today at Belmont!!!

Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1 had 4 wins yesterday at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtetn.png

There was a slight spike upward to complete the upside down v /\

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmayetnsum.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +1

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 3 to 1 margin

I suspect 3 wins or less from today's Morning Lines less than 3-1


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-19-2018 1st race 1 Romani (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs W A Ward 7/5# Dirt
2 05-19-2018 1st race 1A Abyssinian (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs W A Ward 7/5# Dirt
3 05-19-2018 1st race 5 Mertz (FL) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
4 05-19-2018 2nd race 1 Blissful Breeze (FL) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M E Casse 7/5# Turf
5 05-19-2018 2nd race 8 Regal Dame (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M J Maker 5/2# Turf
6 05-19-2018 2nd race 5 Dreams Are Free (KY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles B A Lynch 5/2# Turf
7 05-19-2018 2nd race 6 Salty Smile (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 9/5# Turf
8 05-19-2018 3rd race 9 Minsky Moment (NY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
9 05-19-2018 4th race 4 Major League (KY) Claiming Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
10 05-19-2018 5th race 12 Grand Banks (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile J C Englehart 2/1# Turf
11 05-19-2018 6th race 4 Daring Destiny (NY) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
12 05-19-2018 7th race 1 Grand Sky (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs J Servis 5/2# Turf
13 05-19-2018 7th race 1A Summer Bourbon (NY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Turf
14 05-19-2018 8th race 2 Horoscope (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 6/5# Dirt
15 05-19-2018 10th race 4 Queenofeverything (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six And One Half Furlongs H J Bond 5/2# Dirt
Let's how these do today!!!

Let's pay attention to this one in the 8th race

8th race
#2 Horoscope

Let's see if Rodriguez can get this one to the winners circle today at Belmont!!!

[TheOracle]

.
.
.

I suspect 3 wins or less from today's Morning Lines less than 3-1


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-19-2018 1st race 1 Romani (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs W A Ward 7/5# Dirt
2 05-19-2018 1st race 1A Abyssinian (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs W A Ward 7/5# Dirt
3 05-19-2018 1st race 5 Mertz (FL) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
4 05-19-2018 2nd race 1 Blissful Breeze (FL) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M E Casse 7/5# Turf
5 05-19-2018 2nd race 8 Regal Dame (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M J Maker 5/2# Turf
6 05-19-2018 2nd race 5 Dreams Are Free (KY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles B A Lynch 5/2# Turf
7 05-19-2018 2nd race 6 Salty Smile (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 9/5# Turf
8 05-19-2018 3rd race 9 Minsky Moment (NY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
9 05-19-2018 4th race 4 Major League (KY) Claiming Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
10 05-19-2018 5th race 12 Grand Banks (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile J C Englehart 2/1# Turf
11 05-19-2018 6th race 4 Daring Destiny (NY) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
12 05-19-2018 7th race 1 Grand Sky (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs J Servis 5/2# Turf
13 05-19-2018 7th race 1A Summer Bourbon (NY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Turf
14 05-19-2018 8th race 2 Horoscope (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 6/5# Dirt
15 05-19-2018 10th race 4 Queenofeverything (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six And One Half Furlongs H J Bond 5/2# Dirt
Let's how these do today!!!

Let's pay attention to this one in the 8th race

8th race
#2 Horoscope

Let's see if Rodriguez can get this one to the winners circle today at Belmont!!!

Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1 only had 2 wins yesterday, of the 11 (MLFs) less than 3-1, Rodriguez had 5 and none of his won!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtntn.png

There was a huge drop downward to complete the upside down v /\ shape

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfmayntnsum.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down crashed to -2

Other MLF's tied 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) with 1 win each

I suspect 3 wins from today's Morning Lines less than 3-1 so maybe a slight spike upward today as they are involved in 5 Turf races today


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-20-2018 1st race 5 Freeload (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs D A Cannizzo 2/1# Turf
2 05-20-2018 2nd race 5 Way Over Budget (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G P Gullo 6/5# Dirt
3 05-20-2018 2nd race 6 You Promise (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile R Metivier 2/1# Dirt
4 05-20-2018 3rd race 9 Forest Blue (KY) (MTO) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 5/2# Turf
5 05-20-2018 4th race 12 Dream Passage (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs B A Lynch 5/2# Turf
6 05-20-2018 5th race 1 Doinwhatshelikes (KY) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
7 05-20-2018 5th race 2 Midnight Bounty (FL) Claiming One Mile A C Adsit 9/5# Dirt
8 05-20-2018 5th race 4 Ritzy Lass (ON) Claiming One Mile S M Asmussen 2/1# Dirt
9 05-20-2018 6th race 3 Lemon Blitz (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile J C Englehart 5/2# Turf
10 05-20-2018 7th race 4 Homeland Security (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Fourth Miles C C Brown 1/1# Turf
11 05-20-2018 7th race 5 Samuna (FR) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Fourth Miles J R Abreu 5/2# Turf
12 05-20-2018 8th race 7 Appealing Henry (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 5/2# Dirt

Let' see how they do today!!!

[TheOracle]

Let's pay attention to Brown's horse in the 7th race today at Belmont

7th race
#4 Homeland Security

His Allowance Optional Claimers on the Turf seem to do well!!!

[TheOracle]

Let's pay attention to Brown's horse in the 7th race today at Belmont

7th race
#4 Homeland Security

His Allowance Optional Claimers on the Turf seem to do well!!!


Let's also watch Gullo's horse today n the 8th race

8th
#7 Appealing Henry

Let's see how these 2 do today !!!

[TheOracle]

Let's pay attention to Brown's horse in the 7th race today at Belmont

7th race
#4 Homeland Security

His Allowance Optional Claimers on the Turf seem to do well!!!


#4 Homeland Security disappointed yesterday finishing off the board for Brown I thought for sure he had this one in the bag!!!

[TheOracle]

Let's also watch Gullo's horse today n the 8th race

8th
#7 Appealing Henry

Let's see how these 2 do today !!!

#7 Appealing Henry disappointed yesterday for Gullo but did pay $4 to show not too shabby for a Morning Line Favorite!!!

[TheOracle]

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.
.

I suspect 3 wins from today's Morning Lines less than 3-1 so maybe a slight spike upward today as they are involved in 5 Turf races today


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-20-2018 1st race 5 Freeload (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs D A Cannizzo 2/1# Turf
2 05-20-2018 2nd race 5 Way Over Budget (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G P Gullo 6/5# Dirt
3 05-20-2018 2nd race 6 You Promise (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile R Metivier 2/1# Dirt
4 05-20-2018 3rd race 9 Forest Blue (KY) (MTO) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 5/2# Turf
5 05-20-2018 4th race 12 Dream Passage (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs B A Lynch 5/2# Turf
6 05-20-2018 5th race 1 Doinwhatshelikes (KY) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
7 05-20-2018 5th race 2 Midnight Bounty (FL) Claiming One Mile A C Adsit 9/5# Dirt
8 05-20-2018 5th race 4 Ritzy Lass (ON) Claiming One Mile S M Asmussen 2/1# Dirt
9 05-20-2018 6th race 3 Lemon Blitz (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile J C Englehart 5/2# Turf
10 05-20-2018 7th race 4 Homeland Security (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Fourth Miles C C Brown 1/1# Turf
11 05-20-2018 7th race 5 Samuna (FR) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Fourth Miles J R Abreu 5/2# Turf
12 05-20-2018 8th race 7 Appealing Henry (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 5/2# Dirt

Let' see how they do today!!!

Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1 once again only had 2 wins yesterday

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrttwnty.png

We ended up with a flat slope __ to end the week

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumtwnty.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) stayed the same at 0

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 0 margin

Let's see if we can get a spike on Wednesday from this group!!!

[TheOracle]

Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1 had 5 wins on the 24th of May

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrttwfr.png

We ended up with a spike _/ to start last week's races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumtwfr.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is was up +3

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 4 to 1 margin on this day!!!

[TheOracle]

Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1 only had 3 wins on the 25th of May which is what was expected after the spike upward on the previous day

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrttwfv.png

We ended up with a downward slope \ after the spike the day before at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumtwfv.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is was down -2 from the previous day

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 3 to 0 margin on this day!!!

[TheOracle]

Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1 had a huge day with 9 wins on the 26th of May

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrttwsx.png

We ended up with a huge spike upward / after the downward slope the day before at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumtwsx.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was up with a nice +6 from the previous day!!!

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 7 to 2 margin on this day!!!

For those paying attention, the Morning Line Favorites, (MLFs) less than 3-1 won 5 of 6 as part of the Pick 6 you also got 2 exactas in the 5th and 6th races!!!

It is very rare to see days such as this so congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1 had another huge day with 6 wins on the 27th of May

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrttwsvn.png

Although we ended up with a downward slope \ it was still a huge day for the MLFs less than 3-1

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumtwsvn.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was down from the previous day with a -3

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 4 to 2 margin on this day!!!

For those paying attention, the Morning Line Favorites, (MLFs) less than 3-1 won 6 of 11 races including a nice daily double to start the day!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1 came back down to earth on the 28th of May


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrttwegt.png

We suspected another downward slope \ as there were only 3 winners from this group on Monday

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumtwegt.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was down again from the previous day with a -3 and is -6 for the past 2 racing days

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) beat other MLFs by a 2 to 1 margin on this day!!!

The good news is, we got our upside v /\ so hopefully big things will come from this group today!!!

[TheOracle]

I suspect there will be at least 4 winners from this group today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfaventbel.png

Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been struggling lately on the wet stuff at Belmont!!!

However, I still think we can get at least 4 wins from this group as it has been raining lately in the Tri-State area!!!

[TheOracle]

I suspect there will be at least 4 winners from this group today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfaventbel.png

Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been struggling lately on the wet stuff at Belmont!!!

However, I still think we can get at least 4 wins from this group as it has been raining lately in the Tri-State area!!!

I was vastly incorrect as there was only 1 winner from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 on Friday June 1st

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjunone.png

I expected a spike upward but that was not the case as there were only 1 winner from this group and the downward slope \ got larger


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjunone.png

Chalk players were having way too much fun especially on the 26th and 27th of May but now the party is over and we are back to reality

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) beat other MLFs by a 1 to 0 margin on this day!!!

We didn't get the rain as we expected on Friday but I'm not sure that it would have made a difference

[TheOracle]

Yesterday, I was hoping for a bigger spike for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1, but it was not the case as there were only 3 winners from this group and we now have a v shape \/ of which I'm not a fan

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjuntwo.png

In looking at the chart, there are far more days with 2 to 3 wins which is below what I was expecting for this stretch of time. I expected more days with 3 to 4+ wins from this group.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjuntwo.png

Chalk players may need to hold off on playing MLFs less than 3-1 in Claiming races. They have just been terrible at this race condition for whatever reason!!!

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) beat other MLFs yesterday by a 2 to 1 margin!!!

Let's see what the group does today!!!

[TheOracle]

Here are today's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml favsbeljuntwo.png


I'm not sure what they will do today but I don't expect much from them in any Claiming race today!!!

[TheOracle]

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up from the previous day to +2

[TheOracle]

Here are today's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml favsbeljuntwo.png


I'm not sure what they will do today but I don't expect much from them in any Claiming race today!!!


I was completely suprised last Sunday to see that there were 5 winners from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjunthr.png

We have the first half of the upside down v shape / to start the month of June so I am expecting a sharp decline from this group today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjunthr.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up from Sunday to +3 and for the past 2 racing days the Index is up +5 but this will not continue and I suspect a downward slope \ from this group today.

I was thinking chalk players should have held off on Sunday playing MLFs less than 3-1 however they had 5 wins on the day including the initial Daily Double and combined for an Exacta in the 6th race!!!

Other MLFs beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) on Sunday by a 3 to 2 margin!!!

The MLFs less than 3-1 did surprisingly well as they won both Claiming races on Sunday!!!

Let's see what the group does today!!!

[TheOracle]

I suspect this group will not do well today and will be over bet at Belmont!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml favsbeljunsvn.png

I am thinking maybe 2 to 3 wins from this group today let's see what happens but my guess is that today is a Hold!!!

[TheOracle]

I suspect this group will not do well today and will be over bet at Belmont!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml favsbeljunsvn.png

I am thinking maybe 2 to 3 wins from this group today let's see what happens but my guess is that today is a Hold!!!

Our suspicions were correct and we sniffed out a bad day for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjunsvn.png

I was almost certain that there would be at least 2 to 3 wins from this group but they've won as many races as the Cavaliers have won so far in this years finals which is zero!!!

The good news is we got our upside down v shape /\ and I feel good about the MLFs less than 3-1 in tomorrow's races to have a better day than the 0 for 7 they put up today so a spike in the Index is almost guaranteed!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjunsvn.png

It has been quite some time since the MLFs less than 3-1 had no winners and grabbed a goose egg!!!

I almost went against my own advice after seeing the first 5 races today but I managed to stick it out and I'm glad I did!!!

On the flip side the average win price today was $20 so the longshot players had a field day!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/beloveralljunsvn.png


The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) got crushed today for -6 it gave back all the gains from the past 2 racing days and more

Let's see what happens tomorrow!!!

[TheOracle]

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.
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I almost went against my own advice after seeing the first 5 races today but I managed to stick it out and I'm glad I did!!!

On the flip side the average win price today was $20 so the longshot players had a field day!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/beloveralljunsvn.png


The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) got crushed today for -6 it gave back all the gains from the past 2 racing days and more

Let's see what happens tomorrow!!!


Here are today's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbeltdy.png

I already missed the Brown exacta in the 1st race paid $23

I think we should get 4 wins from this set today!!!

I am thinking Brown will score again in the 7th race with #8 Raging Bull!!!

Let's see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

Here are today's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbeltdy.png

I already missed the Brown exacta in the 1st race paid $23

I think we should get 4 wins from this set today!!!

I am thinking Brown will score again in the 7th race with #8 Raging Bull!!!

Let's see what happens!!!

We were 1 off of our estimate for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as the group won 3 races out of 10 attempts today at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjunegt.png

We did get a spike today although it was not as big a spike as we expected but anything is better than 0 which is what we got yesterday!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjunegt.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up from yesterday to +3

I suspect there will not be many MLFs less than 3-1 will hit the winners circle tomorrow so per my guess tomorrow's races are a HOLD!!!

Knowing which MLF less than 3-1 to play is half the battle but we were right on the money with Brown in the 7th race as #8 Raging Bull came through with the win paying $10.50 across the board!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

For those of you who were even more astute Brown put together a nice exacta in the 1st race today congratulations to those who were paying attention and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

It was a great day for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 on Belmont Stakes day!!!

Chalk players had a field day as there were 7 of 14 winners from the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjunnin.png

The 7 wins set off a nice spike upward from yesterday!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjunnin.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +4 from yesterday

Other MLFs beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) on Saturday by a 4 to 3 margin!!!

My guess for a HOLD on today's races turned out to be a bad one as the MLFs less than 3-1 hit the pick 3 races(3-5) and the late Daily Double races (11-12)!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

My guess for Sunday is another HOLD for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 I don't think they will have anywhere near the same success as was the case on Saturday!!!

[TheOracle]

My guess for Sunday is another HOLD for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 I don't think they will have anywhere near the same success as was the case on Saturday!!!

I don’t think there will be many winners from this group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 today!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 06-10-2018 1st race 1 Gump (FL) Maiden Special Weight Five And One Half Furlongs R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
2 06-10-2018 1st race 5 Whiskey Echo (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five And One Half Furlongs S M Asmussen 8/5# Dirt
3 06-10-2018 2nd race 6 Fair Regis (NY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs R N Falcone Jr. 5/2# Dirt
4 06-10-2018 3rd race 1 Daring Prospect (KY) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 1/1# Dirt
5 06-10-2018 3rd race 6 Patriotic Endeavor (KY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Dirt
6 06-10-2018 4th race 2 Best Performance (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Eighth Miles C Clement 5/2# Turf
7 06-10-2018 4th race 4 Too Cool to Dance (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 9/5# Turf
8 06-10-2018 5th race 3 Patternrecognition (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
9 06-10-2018 6th race 7 Siggie (NY) Allowance One Mile R S Lerman 5/2# Turf
10 06-10-2018 6th race 5 J Js Dreaming (NY) (MTO) Allowance One Mile M A Hennig 8/5# Turf
11 06-10-2018 7th race 1A Your Only Man (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 5/2# Turf
12 06-10-2018 7th race 1 Fleet Irish (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles G Weaver 5/2# Turf
13 06-10-2018 9th race 6 Take Charge Paula (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs K P McLaughlin 8/5# Dirt


However, I will be focusing on these 3 today at Belmont

3rd race

#1 Daring Prospect

4th race
#4 Too Cool to Dance

5th race
#3 Patternrecognition

Let’s see how they do today at Belmont!!!

[TheOracle]

I don’t think there will be many winners from this group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 today!!!


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 06-10-2018 1st race 1 Gump (FL) Maiden Special Weight Five And One Half Furlongs R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
2 06-10-2018 1st race 5 Whiskey Echo (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five And One Half Furlongs S M Asmussen 8/5# Dirt
3 06-10-2018 2nd race 6 Fair Regis (NY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs R N Falcone Jr. 5/2# Dirt
4 06-10-2018 3rd race 1 Daring Prospect (KY) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 1/1# Dirt
5 06-10-2018 3rd race 6 Patriotic Endeavor (KY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Dirt
6 06-10-2018 4th race 2 Best Performance (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Eighth Miles C Clement 5/2# Turf
7 06-10-2018 4th race 4 Too Cool to Dance (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 9/5# Turf
8 06-10-2018 5th race 3 Patternrecognition (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
9 06-10-2018 6th race 7 Siggie (NY) Allowance One Mile R S Lerman 5/2# Turf
10 06-10-2018 6th race 5 J Js Dreaming (NY) (MTO) Allowance One Mile M A Hennig 8/5# Turf
11 06-10-2018 7th race 1A Your Only Man (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 5/2# Turf
12 06-10-2018 7th race 1 Fleet Irish (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles G Weaver 5/2# Turf
13 06-10-2018 9th race 6 Take Charge Paula (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs K P McLaughlin 8/5# Dirt
However, I will be focusing on these 3 today at Belmont

3rd race

#1 Daring Prospect

4th race
#4 Too Cool to Dance

5th race
#3 Patternrecognition

Let’s see how they do today at Belmont!!!

The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont took a beat down yesterday as we expected although the day was considered a HOLD, I was hoping the MLFs above would have won at least 2 out of 3 races.

Instead, they all ran 2nd in their respective races!!!

The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as a group won only 1 race out of 11 attempts yesterday at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjunten.png


We did however, get the upside down v shape /\ we were looking for so we will issue a BUY for Wednesday's upcoming races!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjunten.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -6 giving back all the gains from Friday and Saturday

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) beat other MLFs on Sunday by a 1 to 0 margin!!!

Let's see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have lost 9 straight races since Sunday!!!

We issued a BUY on Sunday for the MLFs less than 3-1 in today's races based on the fact that there was only 1 winner from this group on Sunday

I suspect a slight spike upward / today with possibly 3 wins from this group

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfswed.png

I will be focusing on the following:

1st race
#10 St. Louie

4th race
#9 Goldtown

Let's see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have lost 9 straight races since Sunday!!!

We issued a BUY on Sunday for the MLFs less than 3-1 in today's races based on the fact that there was only 1 winner from this group on Sunday

I suspect a slight spike upward / today with possibly 3 wins from this group

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfswed.png

I will be focusing on the following:

1st race
#10 St. Louie

4th race
#9 Goldtown

Let's see what happens!!!

We were right in that there were 3 winners from this group however, we were wrong with the selections above to be included as winners for the day #10 St. Louie and #9 Goldtown were huge disappointments yesterday!!!

The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 won 3 races yesterday at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjunftn.png

We got the upward spike but had the wrong horses

We will issue a HOLD for today's upcoming races at Belmont for MLFs less than 3-1 even though we've had 3 upward spikes whenever there have been 3 winners from this group on the previous day!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjunftn.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +2 from Sunday!!!

Two of the 3 winners from this group made up both halves of the Daily Double in races 7 and 8!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

Although I've issued a HOLD for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 for today it would seem that there would be more than 3 winners since ther are so many entered even with the scratches!!!

RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 06-14-2018 1st race 2 Shes Trouble (NY) Maiden Special Weight Five And One Half Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
2 06-14-2018 1st race 3 Princess Pinky (NY) Maiden Special Weight Five And One Half Furlongs M Nevin 2/1# Dirt
3 06-14-2018 2nd race 1A Hidden Vow (NY) Claiming One Mile J Servis 8/5# Turf
4 06-14-2018 2nd race 9 Mobridge (NY) Claiming One Mile W I Mott 2/1# Turf
5 06-14-2018 2nd race 1 Nobody Move (NY) (MTO) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 8/5# Turf
6 06-14-2018 3rd race 6 La Piu Bella (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles L Rice 9/5# Turf
7 06-14-2018 3rd race 2 Giant Boxer (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 5/2# Turf
8 06-14-2018 4th race 3 Pirates Treasure (NY) Claiming Seven Furlongs J A Jerkens 7/5# Dirt
9 06-14-2018 4th race 4 Truly a Moon Shot (KY) Claiming Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
10 06-14-2018 6th race 1 In Denile (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs J C Kimmel 2/1# Dirt
11 06-14-2018 6th race 1A Out of Orbit (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs P M Serpe 2/1# Dirt
12 06-14-2018 6th race 4 Missbigtimes (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs J C Englehart 5/2# Dirt
13 06-14-2018 7th race 6 A True Giant (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 8/5# Dirt
14 06-14-2018 8th race 8 Silver Shaker (KY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 2/1# Turf
15 06-14-2018 8th race 1 Frostie Anne (NY) (MTO) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 2/5# Turf
16 06-14-2018 9th race 8 Hidden Bamboo (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 6/5# Dirt

Let's see what the totals are after today's 5th race!!!

[TheOracle]

Although I've issued a HOLD for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 for today it would seem that there would be more than 3 winners since ther are so many entered even with the scratches!!!

RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 06-14-2018 1st race 2 Shes Trouble (NY) Maiden Special Weight Five And One Half Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
2 06-14-2018 1st race 3 Princess Pinky (NY) Maiden Special Weight Five And One Half Furlongs M Nevin 2/1# Dirt
3 06-14-2018 2nd race 1A Hidden Vow (NY) Claiming One Mile J Servis 8/5# Turf
4 06-14-2018 2nd race 9 Mobridge (NY) Claiming One Mile W I Mott 2/1# Turf
5 06-14-2018 2nd race 1 Nobody Move (NY) (MTO) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 8/5# Turf
6 06-14-2018 3rd race 6 La Piu Bella (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles L Rice 9/5# Turf
7 06-14-2018 3rd race 2 Giant Boxer (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 5/2# Turf
8 06-14-2018 4th race 3 Pirates Treasure (NY) Claiming Seven Furlongs J A Jerkens 7/5# Dirt
9 06-14-2018 4th race 4 Truly a Moon Shot (KY) Claiming Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
10 06-14-2018 6th race 1 In Denile (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs J C Kimmel 2/1# Dirt
11 06-14-2018 6th race 1A Out of Orbit (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs P M Serpe 2/1# Dirt
12 06-14-2018 6th race 4 Missbigtimes (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs J C Englehart 5/2# Dirt
13 06-14-2018 7th race 6 A True Giant (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 8/5# Dirt
14 06-14-2018 8th race 8 Silver Shaker (KY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 2/1# Turf
15 06-14-2018 8th race 1 Frostie Anne (NY) (MTO) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 2/5# Turf
16 06-14-2018 9th race 8 Hidden Bamboo (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 6/5# Dirt

Let's see what the totals are after today's 5th race!!!

We sniffed out another bad day for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 yesterday as there were only 2 winners from the eventual group of 13 at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjun.png

We got the upside down v /\ shape so maybe today's MLFs less than 3-1 have a shot at more winners today!!!

We will issue a BUY for today's upcoming races at Belmont for MLFs less than 3-1 hopefully they will do much better than yesterday!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjun.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -1 from yesterday and we look for a spike today!!!

Let's see what happens after today's 5th race from this group

RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 06-15-2018 1st race 2 Michael Wonderful (KY) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 8/5# Turf
2 06-15-2018 1st race 7 Double Deep (KY) Claiming One Mile R Diodoro 5/2# Turf
3 06-15-2018 2nd race 2 Money Laundering (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs B N Levine 2/1# Dirt
4 06-15-2018 2nd race 3 Ripe (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 9/5# Dirt
5 06-15-2018 3rd race 4 Loose (FL) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 1/1# Dirt
6 06-15-2018 4th race 1 Kuna (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs W A Ward 5/2# Turf
7 06-15-2018 4th race 6 Cyclical (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs W A Ward 8/5# Turf
8 06-15-2018 6th race 6 Take Charge Aubrey (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles B N Levine 5/2# Dirt
9 06-15-2018 7th race 8 Yummy Bear (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs D G Donk 5/2# Turf
10 06-15-2018 8th race 3 J Js Dreaming (NY) Allowance One Mile M A Hennig 8/5# Dirt
11 06-15-2018 8th race 6 Honor Up (NY) Allowance One Mile W I Mott 5/2# Dirt
12 06-15-2018 9th race 5 Seam (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs R Handal 9/5# Dirt

[TheOracle]

.
.
.

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -1 from yesterday and we look for a spike today!!!

Let's see what happens after today's 5th race from this group

RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 06-15-2018 1st race 2 Michael Wonderful (KY) Claiming One Mile R R Rodriguez 8/5# Turf
2 06-15-2018 1st race 7 Double Deep (KY) Claiming One Mile R Diodoro 5/2# Turf
3 06-15-2018 2nd race 2 Money Laundering (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs B N Levine 2/1# Dirt
4 06-15-2018 2nd race 3 Ripe (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 9/5# Dirt
5 06-15-2018 3rd race 4 Loose (FL) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 1/1# Dirt
6 06-15-2018 4th race 1 Kuna (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs W A Ward 5/2# Turf
7 06-15-2018 4th race 6 Cyclical (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs W A Ward 8/5# Turf
8 06-15-2018 6th race 6 Take Charge Aubrey (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles B N Levine 5/2# Dirt
9 06-15-2018 7th race 8 Yummy Bear (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs D G Donk 5/2# Turf
10 06-15-2018 8th race 3 J Js Dreaming (NY) Allowance One Mile M A Hennig 8/5# Dirt
11 06-15-2018 8th race 6 Honor Up (NY) Allowance One Mile W I Mott 5/2# Dirt
12 06-15-2018 9th race 5 Seam (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs R Handal 9/5# Dirt


There were only 3 winners from the above group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 last Friday at Belmont!!!

However, I have noticed a spike upward that occurred in 3 out of the last 4 instances whenever there were exactly 3 winners among the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjunsvtn.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +3 since Saturday!!!

Other MLFs beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) on Sunday by a 6 to 0 margin (there were only two 5ers on the card)!!!

A big spike is usually followed by a downward slope \ the next racing day so my guess is a HOLD for this group on Wednesday!!!

[TheOracle]

he Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have lost 11 straight races since yesterday!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjuntwone.png

We will issue a BUY on Saturday for the MLFs less than 3-1 in today's races based on the fact that there was only 1 winner from this group on Friday they were just terrible.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/

I suspect a slight spike upward / with possibly 3 wins from the MLFs on Saturday!!!

[RESIZE]http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjuntwone.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down from Thursday to -4.

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) beat other MLFs by a 1 to 0 margin

It will be interesting to see what happens in the first 3 races at Belmont since MLFs less than 3-1 have been 0 for their last 11!!!

[TheOracle]

As the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have lost 11 straight races at Belmont, I am interested to see what happens in the 1st and 3rd races today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbelendjun.png

I am particularly interested in these today at Belmont

1st race
#4 Malarkey

4th race
#3 Punked

We've issued a BUY for today and will attack with the above to get things going!!!

Let's see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

As the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have lost 11 straight races at Belmont, I am interested to see what happens in the 1st and 3rd races today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbelendjun.png

I am particularly interested in these today at Belmont

1st race
#4 Malarkey

4th race
#3 Punked

We've issued a BUY for today and will attack with the above to get things going!!!

Let's see what happens!!!

We sniffed out a good day for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 but unfortunately we picked the wrong horses as #4 Malarkey and #3 Punked finished 2nd in their respective races!!!

We got the upward spike we were looking for yesterday as the MLFs less than 3-1 had 4 wins!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjuntwofr.png

After 12 straight losses, the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 got 4 wins including the late Daily Double and exactas in the 3rd and 4th races at Belmont yesterday!!!

I suspect a plunge downward \ from the MLFs less than 3-1 today

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjuntwofr.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +3 from Saturday.

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) tied other MLFs with 2 wins a piece

We will issue a HOLD for today!!!

[TheOracle]

Since this post the Morning Favorites Lines less than 3-1 did not have much movement in terms of spikes


The wins from this group oscillated between 3 and 4 with a slight spike at 5 on June 30th


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjunall.png


I am starting to take an interest in the gaps between wins from this group they have been 0 for their last 2 since yesterday!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjlysix.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is 0 and stays the same from yesterday.

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) tied other MLFs with 2 wins a piece

We will issue a HOLD for today!!!

[TheOracle]

We sniffed out another bad day as the Morning Favorites Lines less than 3-1 did not do much yesterday winning only 1 of 9 races at Belmont including 2 even money Favorites finishing 2nd!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjlysvn.png

Morning Favorites Lines less than 3-1 have been 0 for their last 4

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjlysvn.png

Today should be interesting and I am suspecting there will be a spike today from this group

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbeljlysvn.png

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -3 from yesterday.

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) beat other MLFs by a 1 to 0 margin.

We will issue a BUY for today!!!

I am leaning toward #2 Whitmore in today's 7th race at Belmont!!!

[TheOracle]

We had the right idea yesterday at Belmont but we had the wrong horse as #2 Whitmore ran 2nd but rounded out the Exacta with #1 Limousine Liberal which was not too shabby for 2 Favorites!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjlyegt.png

Morning Favorites Lines less than 3-1 got 4 wins yesterday showing a nice spike from the downward slope on Friday!!!

MLFs less than 3-1 rounded out 2 Exactas yesterday in the 4th and 7th races they also provided a decent Daily Double in the 3rd and 4th races along with a win in the 11th!!!

As much as I hate to admit it the Exotics were the way to go yesterday with the MLFs less than 3-1 as straight win bets gave a negative return!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjlyegt.png

I am suspecting there will be a downward slope today from this group as Claiming races have not been very friendly to MLFs less than 3-1

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbeljlyegt.png

5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) beat other MLFs by a 3 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +3 from yesterday.

We will issue a HOLD for today!!!

[TheOracle]

As we round out Belmont and head into Saratoga we take a look at the final week of the season for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjlythrn.png

For the month of July, there have been no spikes after a 4 win day among this group they have all been downward sloping \ with a drop in wins and today looks to be much the same

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjlythrn.png

We will issue a HOLD for this group today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbellstday.png

A HOLD makes sense as the last week of the season is usually where you find the big prices!!!

Although, I will make an exception in the case of C Clement his Turfers have been on fire in July!!!

Belmont was quite a challenge in terms of data hopefully Saratoga will be much smoother!!!

[TheOracle]

There was a spike upward yesterday the first from a previous 4 win day from this group we issued a HOLD and there was no way we could go with a BUY based on previous patterns




http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjlyftn.png



MLFs less than 3-1 did very well yesterday winning 5 of 11 completing a PICK 3 in races 1 through 3 and providing 2 more wins in the 5th and 8th races paying over $5 in each race. The 3 wins gave you 2 Daily Doubles as well.



http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjlyftnr.png


The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +1 from yesterday and up +3 since July 12th

Other MLFs beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 3 to 1 margin.

We will issue a BUY for today since it looks like rain today at Belmont the small fields should help the MLFs less than 3-1!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbellstdays.png


I am leaning toward this one today

3rd race
#1 Hay Field

Let's see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

There was a spike upward yesterday the first from a previous 4 win day from this group we issued a HOLD and there was no way we could go with a BUY based on previous patterns




http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfchrtjlyftn.png



MLFs less than 3-1 did very well yesterday winning 5 of 11 completing a PICK 3 in races 1 through 3 and providing 2 more wins in the 5th and 8th races paying over $5 in each race. The 3 wins gave you 2 Daily Doubles as well.



http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfsumjlyftnr.png


The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +1 from yesterday and up +3 since July 12th

Other MLFs beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 3 to 1 margin.

We will issue a BUY for today since it looks like rain today at Belmont the small fields should help the MLFs less than 3-1!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbellstdays.png


I am leaning toward this one today

3rd race
#1 Hay Field

Let's see what happens!!!

I didn't realize that #1 Hay Field won this race and paid $14.70 across the board!!!

Sorry for the late congratulations!!!

Row#: Date: Race: Pgm#: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: TrackCond: Win$: Place$: Show$:
6 2018-07-15 3rd race 1 Hay Field (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs J C Englehart 5/2# Dirt Sloppy 8.4 3.7 2.6
7 2018-07-15 3rd race 2 Held Accountable (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs P M Serpe 7/2# Dirt Sloppy 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 2018-07-15 3rd race 3 Tiznows Smile (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs C Baker 10/1# Dirt Sloppy 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 2018-07-15 3rd race 4 No Hayne No Gayne (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs S M Asmussen 6/1# Dirt Sloppy 0.0 0.0 3.0
10 2018-07-15 3rd race 5 Byself (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs R A Violette Jr. 4/5# Dirt Sloppy 0.0 3.0 2.1




Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

I didn't realize that #1 Hay Field won this race and paid $14.70 across the board!!!

Sorry for the late congratulations!!!

Row#: Date: Race: Pgm#: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: TrackCond: Win$: Place$: Show$:
6 2018-07-15 3rd race 1 Hay Field (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs J C Englehart 5/2# Dirt Sloppy 8.4 3.7 2.6
7 2018-07-15 3rd race 2 Held Accountable (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs P M Serpe 7/2# Dirt Sloppy 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 2018-07-15 3rd race 3 Tiznows Smile (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs C Baker 10/1# Dirt Sloppy 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 2018-07-15 3rd race 4 No Hayne No Gayne (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs S M Asmussen 6/1# Dirt Sloppy 0.0 0.0 3.0
10 2018-07-15 3rd race 5 Byself (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs R A Violette Jr. 4/5# Dirt Sloppy 0.0 3.0 2.1




Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

Let's see what these MLFs less than 3-1 do today:

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbelsepltthr.png

Looks like #2 Sanavi should win the 1st race today at Belmont!!!

The even money MLFs at Belmont have lost 5 of their last 6
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/evenmnymlfbel.png

I think the streak gets broken today!!!

[TheOracle]

Let's see what these MLFs less than 3-1 do today:

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfsbelsepltthr.png

Looks like #2 Sanavi should win the 1st race today at Belmont!!!

The even money MLFs at Belmont have lost 5 of their last 6
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/evenmnymlfbel.png

I think the streak gets broken today!!!

We suspected the Morning Line even money winless streak would end and it did today as #2 Sanavi came through today paying $8.30 across the board!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlevenmnystrkendbel.png

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

[TheOracle]

We suspected the Morning Line even money winless streak would end and it did today as #2 Sanavi came through today paying $8.30 across the board!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlevenmnystrkendbel.png

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 went 7 for 12 today at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsprftatbel.png

Chalk Players were on fire today as MLFs less than 3-1 had the Pick3 in races 2,3,4 and the late Daily Double in races 9,10

After just a 2 win day on Friday the MLFs less than 3-1 came back with 7 winners today!!!

I would avoid playing any chalk tomorrow especially Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1!!!

[Wizard of Odds]

You might want to research this phenonenon

[castaway01]

You might want to research this phenonenon

That's the ironic part---right when he calls out a hot streak, that's when it's about to end (possible exception are some of the trainer bets). But if you point out this logic, you'll just get called a troll or a "hater".

I'd love to book his bets, but you know guys like him don't actually bet.

[TheOracle]

That's the ironic part---right when he calls out a hot streak, that's when it's about to end (possible exception are some of the trainer bets). But if you point out this logic, you'll just get called a troll or a "hater".

I'd love to book his bets, but you know guys like him don't actually bet.

Cast

When have you ever come up with anything but a complaint

At least I give bets to book what's your record how acurate are you?

Please show us all how it's done we're waiting

[TheOracle]

That's the ironic part---right when he calls out a hot streak, that's when it's about to end (possible exception are some of the trainer bets). But if you point out this logic, you'll just get called a troll or a "hater".

I'd love to book his bets, but you know guys like him don't actually bet.

They don't call you a troll for pointing out the weakness in logic they call you a troll for not providing your expertise on the subject

When people call you out you never respond

That's what trolls do, start arguments and leave

However, please provide us with your record and methodology we are all waiting to here from you

[Dave Schwartz]

Oracle,

I have a question.

In the thread title, you mentioned, "Creating an Index."

What is an "index?"


Thank you.

[TheOracle]

Oracle,

I have a question.

In the thread title, you mentioned, "Creating an Index."

What is an "index?"


Thank you.

Hey Dave

When I say "Create an index" I'm just speaking of a running total of wins from all Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 from one day to the next.

So for example, if the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 had only 1 winner on day1 and say 3 winners the next day , or day2, then the "index" would be +2 or 3 - 1 = +2

Say there were 3 winners on day1 and only 1 winner the next day, or day2 then the "index" would be -2 or 1 - 3 = -2

The "index" is just the number of wins on day1 minus the number of wins on day2 for all Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

I just called it an "index" as a fancy way of keeping track of the running win totals on previous racing days at NYC tracks

The bottom line is that, the number or "index" would go up or down depending on wins based on the previous day for all Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Aqueduct, Belmont or Saratoga

[TheOracle]

Chalk players had a field day today at Aqueduct as Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 went 5 for 7 today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/chlkgooddayaqu.png

Interesting to note, 7 of 9 win prices today paid less than $8

Chalk Players were on fire today as MLFs less than 3-1 had the Pick3 in races 7,8,9 and the late Daily Double in races 8 and 9!!!

The $2 late pick3 paid $29.80 and the late $2 Daily Double paid $10.60

Too bad it doesn't always go this way!!!

I would avoid playing any chalk tomorrow!!!

[TheOracle]

Chalk players have been having a great stretch as Morning Lines less than 3-1 have won 9 of their last 19 for the past 2 racing days at Aqueduct!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfstwodayaqu.png

Interesting to note, they have managed to hit the board 13 straight times and have been off the board only once for the past 2 racing days!!!

I suspect Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will have a tough day tomorrow!!!

[TheOracle]

Chalk players have been having a great stretch as Morning Lines less than 3-1 have won 9 of their last 19 for the past 2 racing days at Aqueduct!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfstwodayaqu.png

Interesting to note, they have managed to hit the board 13 straight times and have been off the board only once for the past 2 racing days!!!

I suspect Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will have a tough day tomorrow!!!

We sniffed out a bad day for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as they went 2 for 13 today!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbaddayaqu.png

Interesting to note that there was a 9-5 Morning Line Favorite in the 2nd race that paid $10 but 5ers went 1 for 6 so even with the $10 winner you ended up with a $2 loss wagering on the 5ers!!!