I feel the need, need for the lead . . .

[Blenheim]

"Need to lead front-runners that cannot get the lead are probably the worst bets in handicapping."
- Tom Brohammer Author of Modern Pace Handicapping

~

It think we saw what Brohammer writes about in the Florida, where, “Strike Power was sent hell-bent-for-leather to duel inside Promises Fulfilled heading to the first turn”, running the first quarter in 21.95. The connections of Promises Fulfilled knew he had to have the lead; the lead is all he has known. Strike Power same thing, had to have the lead, both confined to and ultimately doomed by their running style.

I found what Brohammer writes interesting and pertinent in the context of this running of the Kentucky. In particular, Promises Fulfilled and Justify, are they gonna hook? :ThmbUp: Do they have a choice? How fast will they go? Are they confined to, limited and thus doomed by their running style?

I looked at Justify’s latest workout at the workout thread, was he sittin’ tight, pressin’ behind his workmate passing at the wire? Unlike Baffert slow workout and why was the front-runner shown pressing? A little bit of brinksmanship and misdirection by Baffert?

[jay68802]

Not at all unlike Baffert? Fits perfectly with what I see, one more work until the derby, and it will be at a 12 sec clip. All systems go.

[señorclipclop]

Florida Derby was a misdirection by Romans. Don't think he won't send Promises Fulfilled to the front and try to slow it to a gallop until they enter the final turn.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yeah Promises could be the key to this race by ensuring a fast pace. If we get even a slightly more than honest pace this will be an exciting stretch run with many having a chance. Man I haven't slept much the last 2 weeks. I got Derby fever! I try to resist as long as possible. Works only up to the 9f preps then insanity prevails by a widening margin!;)

[five-eighths]

https://youtu.be/0-MRD9QutB8

Could we see a repeat of the ‘85 Derby when Spend A Buck wired the field running 4f in 45 and change?

[BlueChip@DRF]

There is quality speed, no more cheap sprinting speed in this field. Unless someone is trying to pull a Palace Maice experiment, I doubt there will be a blazing pace like we've seen in past Derbies where they let in sprinters who truly did not belong. The new points system made it possible to see another Triple Crown winner.

A :47+ fraction should keep it honest. Anything faster will bring a stampede turning for home.

[upthecreek]

https://www.paulickreport.com/features/kentucky-derby-capsule/adequan-presents-derby-capsule-a-case-for-the-pace/#nws=mcnewsletter

[Blenheim]

A few comments, first on Spend A Buck. Loved that video. I recall that Derby quite well. I was at Longacres in Renton, Washington, just south of Seattle – Gary Stevens’s territory. I remember reading, I believe it was a Leon Rasmussen article in the DRF and he covered Roman’s Dosage for the Derby; Spend A Buck should win it. I bet that horse and he wired em’, I’ll never forget that stretch call. . . SPEND A BUCK BY FIVE! I’ve been a Dosage fan ever since. Won the Derby a few years later w/Winning Colors, Steve was up.

~

Regarding Justify, his previous 6fl works were at 1:13.1 and 1:13.4, his most recent 6fl work was 1:13.4, so consistent. The problem arises, as papillon noted in his post at the workout thread, is in his 7fl and mile races he ran 6fl in 109 flat and 1:09.3. If you factor in “the 3 second conversion, he really ran two 1:06s.” The world record for 6fl is 1:06.46 run by Twin Sparks at Turf Paradise, 2009. Did justify run the 6fl fraction near world record time or is the variant incorrect?


Brohammer writes, “Need to lead front-runners that cannot get the lead are probably the worst bets in handicapping.” Quinn writes, ”If need-to-lead types that cannot get the lead represent the worst bets in handicapping, the class horses alone on the front may be the best bets in handicapping.” What makes Justify so lethal is his Dosage: DP = 5-6-8-1-0 DI = 3.00 CD = 75. Roman writes, “Only 22% of stakes winners at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter or longer have no DP points in either the Solid or Professional group while only 10% of stakes-winning sprinters have points in both.” Although Dosage gives us population statistics, Justify with 1 point in the Solid category fits the profile of the type getting the classic distance. In other words, if he gets easy and loose early, HE IS GONE! The only thing stopping Justify is Promises Fulfilled and pace.


Pace truly does make the race.

[dilanesp]

Justify has a huge shot. His dosage has zero to do with why. (And the Dosage people were big Curse of Apollo believers and would hate him anyway.)

[GMB@BP]

"Need to lead front-runners that cannot get the lead are probably the worst bets in handicapping."
- Tom Brohammer Author of Modern Pace Handicapping

~

It think we saw what Brohammer writes about in the Florida, where, “Strike Power was sent hell-bent-for-leather to duel inside Promises Fulfilled heading to the first turn”, running the first quarter in 21.95. The connections of Promises Fulfilled knew he had to have the lead; the lead is all he has known. Strike Power same thing, had to have the lead, both confined to and ultimately doomed by their running style.

I found what Brohammer writes interesting and pertinent in the context of this running of the Kentucky. In particular, Promises Fulfilled and Justify, are they gonna hook? :ThmbUp: Do they have a choice? How fast will they go? Are they confined to, limited and thus doomed by their running style?

I looked at Justify’s latest workout at the workout thread, was he sittin’ tight, pressin’ behind his workmate passing at the wire? Unlike Baffert slow workout and why was the front-runner shown pressing? A little bit of brinksmanship and misdirection by Baffert?

Justify rated nicely in his second start, why is it that he has to be sent for the lead?

I wouldnt take away anything if he breaks clean but I see no reason why he cant sit in 4th or so and track a fast pace.

[señorclipclop]

A few comments, first on Spend A Buck. Loved that video. I recall that Derby quite well. I was at Longacres in Renton, Washington, just south of Seattle – Gary Stevens’s territory. I remember reading, I believe it was a Leon Rasmussen article in the DRF and he covered Roman’s Dosage for the Derby; Spend A Buck should win it. I bet that horse and he wired em’, I’ll never forget that stretch call. . . SPEND A BUCK BY FIVE! I’ve been a Dosage fan ever since. Won the Derby a few years later w/Winning Colors, Steve was up.

~

Regarding Justify, his previous 6fl works were at 1:13.1 and 1:13.4, his most recent 6fl work was 1:13.4, so consistent. The problem arises, as papillon noted in his post at the workout thread, is in his 7fl and mile races he ran 6fl in 109 flat and 1:09.3. If you factor in “the 3 second conversion, he really ran two 1:06s.” The world record for 6fl is 1:06.46 run by Twin Sparks at Turf Paradise, 2009. Did justify run the 6fl fraction near world record time or is the variant incorrect?


Brohammer writes, “Need to lead front-runners that cannot get the lead are probably the worst bets in handicapping.” Quinn writes, ”If need-to-lead types that cannot get the lead represent the worst bets in handicapping, the class horses alone on the front may be the best bets in handicapping.” What makes Justify so lethal is his Dosage: DP = 5-6-8-1-0 DI = 3.00 CD = 75. Roman writes, “Only 22% of stakes winners at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter or longer have no DP points in either the Solid or Professional group while only 10% of stakes-winning sprinters have points in both.” Although Dosage gives us population statistics, Justify with 1 point in the Solid category fits the profile of the type getting the classic distance. In other words, if he gets easy and loose early, HE IS GONE! The only thing stopping Justify is Promises Fulfilled and pace.


Pace truly does make the race.

The last four winners were 0-0 in the back of their dosage profile.

[papillon]

Brohammer writes, “Need to lead front-runners that cannot get the lead are probably the worst bets in handicapping.” Quinn writes, ”If need-to-lead types that cannot get the lead represent the worst bets in handicapping, the class horses alone on the front may be the best bets in handicapping.” What makes Justify so lethal is his[I] Dosage: DP = 5-6-8-1-0 DI = 3.00 CD = 75. .

I dont really know much about dosage. I kind of figure it stopped having relevance when it stopped being a game of homebreds. Anywho, why do two Scat Daddies not have the same dosage? It's by sire right?

Mendelssohn: 5-0-8-1-0, 1.80, 0.64

http://www.pedigreequery.com/mendelssohn11

Thanks for the info on Justify always running 1:13 6f works.

Before the Derby Bodemeister worked 6f in 1:10.4 and Liason in 1:10.8

I looked for Game on Dude but he was all over the place with his 6f works, yet consistently ran, right up to then end, 1:10sin the afternoon, so there is that.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Kentucky_Derby_2012_Workout_Report_April_2_Bodemei ster_flies_123#

I admit that do not get anything about this horse. Bodemeister running 1:09s wouldn't have shocked me, and his 6f works set the expectations that he might, but having a horse run 1:13s in the morning and 1:09s in the afternoon, baffles me. Justify's 1:12 looks more like 1:12 to me even more now. It is what would be expected of a horse who consistently works in 1:13, unless 1:13 is really 1:10, and Rayya just worked in 1:09, and Bolt in 1:08.

I honestly have nothing against the horse and despite opinions to the contrary about me, I know tracks can play faster or slower, and that some tracks are faster and slower than others. Completely uncontroversal for me. Even gaining or losing 3 seconds wouldn't be a big deal to me if some reasonable explanation was given, but it doesn't just happen out of the blue to a 75 year old race track.

It's just that to me it seems an awful lot like this horse ran off in his first two races, running way faster than is normal for him, but his messiah status had already been proclaimed by the SA derby and Bolt, who was so respected he was dissed for champ 2yo by a horse with 1 lifetime win, is being used as a crutch to prop up a suspect race. Maybe the track was playing 3 seconds fast for Justify's first 2 races, after all, the track is supposed to be a snail trail now, so fast times must be due to a souped up track, that's how that works right?

Has anyone determined who the work mate was? I looked at the work tab and a bigger bunch of nobodies I never have seen. Was he even stakes quality?

[clicknow]

Florida Derby was a misdirection by Romans. Don't think he won't send Promises Fulfilled to the front and try to slow it to a gallop until they enter the final turn.



April 25th, Derby Oaks Update (CDX Communications):

Romans: "We’ll definitely be in front with Promises Fulfilled. We saw what happened in the Florida Derby when someone tried to go
with him. So, if they want to try again, be my guest.”

[clicknow]

Justify has a huge shot. His dosage has zero to do with why. (And the Dosage people were big Curse of Apollo believers and would hate him anyway.)

Most pedigree cappers I know really don't limit themselves to sire side dosage, but also use the female side of the equation, from Bill Lathrop's study of aptitudinal traits (Modern Conduit Mares). Steve Roman's dosage profiles were based on sire stats....Bill's is based on the female side, covering what dosage did not, i.e. female influenced stamina and what allows horses to carry their brilllaince over a distance of ground.

So discounting dosage is one thing, and I understand that, since no one theory can cover all the bases, any more than beyer speed figures can cover the true nature of any horse's abilities.

Just sayin', I don't thoroughly discount the so-called pedigree cappers because very few are only looking at sire-side stats anymore.

[boys at tosconova]

April 25th, Derby Oaks Update (CDX Communications):

Romans: "We’ll definitely be in front with Promises Fulfilled. We saw what happened in the Florida Derby when someone tried to go
with him. So, if they want to try again, be my guest.”

lol

good thing all the good horses don;t need the lead

[sammy the sage]

April 25th, Derby Oaks Update (CDX Communications):

Romans: "We’ll definitely be in front with Promises Fulfilled. We saw what happened in the Florida Derby when someone tried to go
with him. So, if they want to try again, be my guest.”

:lol::pound: Trainer's have lied before and will lie again....that said....thinking this is trying to intimidate other jock/trainer combo's from not sending...so your no chance horse can CRAWL up front and actually have a chance....:eek:

Well....post draw and gate break will probably make this like spitting in the wind....:D

[dilanesp]

Most pedigree cappers I know really don't limit themselves to sire side dosage, but also use the female side of the equation, from Bill Lathrop's study of aptitudinal traits (Modern Conduit Mares). Steve Roman's dosage profiles were based on sire stats....Bill's is based on the female side, covering what dosage did not, i.e. female influenced stamina and what allows horses to carry their brilllaince over a distance of ground.

So discounting dosage is one thing, and I understand that, since no one theory can cover all the bases, any more than beyer speed figures can cover the true nature of any horse's abilities.

Just sayin', I don't thoroughly discount the so-called pedigree cappers because very few are only looking at sire-side stats anymore.

The problem with dam side analysis is the sample sizes are obviously too small. You can't conclude anything from 1 foal a year, many of whom don't even race.

[clicknow]

There are some horses who will be butt end of jokes, but personally, I actually LOVE watching Promises Fulfilled run/breeze. His legs are very ballerina-like, he never looks like he is pounding pavement like a dinosaur.

[jay68802]

There are some horses who will be butt end of jokes, but personally, I actually LOVE watching Promises Fulfilled run/breeze. His legs are very ballerina-like, he never looks like he is pounding pavement like a dinosaur.

I agree on this, very light on his feet. I remember a horse named St. Trinity and she was completely different. Stuck her hoofs in the ground every time. She tended to throw a lot of dirt in the air.

[LoneF]

April 25th, Derby Oaks Update (CDX Communications):

Romans: "We’ll definitely be in front with Promises Fulfilled. We saw what happened in the Florida Derby when someone tried to go
with him. So, if they want to try again, be my guest.”

Romans is doing the only thing he can do to give Promises Fulfilled any shot at winning. He lets everyone know that the horse is going to the lead regardless of how fast he needs to go to get it and if anyone wants to challenge PF than they will end up like Strike Power in the Florida Derby.

If that scares everyone else enough that they let PF get away with a slow pace upfront than it could look a lot like the Fountain of Youth.

Not saying it will or won’t work but that’s clearly his strategy.

[cj]

Romans is doing the only thing he can do to give Promises Fulfilled any shot at winning. He lets everyone know that the horse is going to the lead regardless of how fast he needs to go to get it and if anyone wants to challenge PF than they will end up like Strike Power in the Florida Derby.

If that scares everyone else enough that they let PF get away with a slow pace upfront than it could look a lot like the Fountain of Youth.

Not saying it will or won’t work but that’s clearly his strategy.

He also has another horse in the race that wouldn't mind a very fast pace.

[SkunkApe]

Romans is doing the only thing he can do to give Promises Fulfilled any shot at winning. He lets everyone know that the horse is going to the lead regardless of how fast he needs to go to get it and if anyone wants to challenge PF than they will end up like Strike Power in the Florida Derby.

If that scares everyone else enough that they let PF get away with a slow pace upfront than it could look a lot like the Fountain of Youth.

Not saying it will or won’t work but that’s clearly his strategy.

These are my thoughts as well.

[jay68802]

IMO, the pace for this race will not be slow. About the only thing I am 100% confident about. I think Promises showed his true colors in the last and that is he needs the lead. If he draws wide, it just add's to the likely pace.

[minethatbird08]

IMO, the pace for this race will not be slow. About the only thing I am 100% confident about. I think Promises showed his true colors in the last and that is he needs the lead. If he draws wide, it just add's to the likely pace.

Today or maybe yesterday Dale Romans said something similar as far as PF getting up front.

[GMB@BP]

IMO, the pace for this race will not be slow. About the only thing I am 100% confident about. I think Promises showed his true colors in the last and that is he needs the lead. If he draws wide, it just add's to the likely pace.

There are rarely slow paces in the Derby, the slowest pace recently were with American Pharoah and California Chrome, both were just off a moderate pace.

You can still win on the front end though with the fast paces, the closers just dont close.

[CincyHorseplayer]

There are rarely slow paces in the Derby, the slowest pace recently were with American Pharoah and California Chrome, both were just off a moderate pace.

You can still win on the front end though with the fast paces, the closers just dont close.

This is a good point. Thinking about it I think horses that are up close to say 3 lengths at 1st call, they get in shape. Closers usually take a while to get fit enough to run down a fast lead. If they are also lightly raced they never get that fitness and the 10 furlongs strands them as well. This is just my random thoughts but if I trained a closer I'd want to train them for the big windup not to instill tactical speed. I'd race them more often in their 3yo year and train them to be a freight train.

[Blenheim]

There are rarely slow paces in the Derby, the slowest pace recently were with American Pharoah and California Chrome, both were just off a moderate pace.

You can still win on the front end though with the fast paces, the closers just dont close.

Seems to me w/this group you can have an high average pace and the closers still won't close.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

My biggest question is if Justify is a bit better version of Bodemeister?

Neither look like regally bred 10 panel horses, but Bode just about pulled it off for Baffert, and it isn't as if he has never had a horse go gate to wire before in the Derby (War Emblem).

[CincyHorseplayer]

My biggest question is if Justify is a bit better version of Bodemeister?

Neither look like regally bred 10 panel horses, but Bode just about pulled it off for Baffert, and it isn't as if he has never had a horse go gate to wire before in the Derby (War Emblem).

That's a good comparison. I think Bode got into more pace dung than this one though. Having fantasies about him caving mid stretch. Nightmares about him being on a saver ticket. Tough times!

[Spalding No!]

My biggest question is if Justify is a bit better version of Bodemeister?

Neither look like regally bred 10 panel horses, but Bode just about pulled it off for Baffert, and it isn't as if he has never had a horse go gate to wire before in the Derby (War Emblem).
Bodemeister was bred top and bottom for the classic distances.

Among his first 4 generations, Bodemeister had no less than 10 classic winning stallions out of 15 possible.

Justify has 3 (and one of those was a Queen's Plate winner).

[señorclipclop]

My biggest question is if Justify is a bit better version of Bodemeister?


LMAO