Will Magnum Moon be able to rate?

[GMB@BP]

Looking at the Timeform pace figures its clear he is going to have to go faster than he ever has or come from much further back.

He may be able to do it but the current 2nd or 3rd choice will have to do something he never has done before, come from 5-10 lengths back. His figures are good not great, he needs another move forward which is certainly possible, just not sure its probable.

Generally that gets me into the betting against category. I gave him an 8% chance of winning the race.

[Robert Fischer]

Looking at the Timeform pace figures its clear he is going to have to go faster than he ever has or come from much further back.

He may be able to do it but the current 2nd or 3rd choice will have to do something he never has done before, come from 5-10 lengths back. His figures are good not great, he needs another move forward which is certainly possible, just not sure its probable.

Generally that gets me into the betting against category. I gave him an 8% chance of winning the race.

Where the hell was he in 2017? He was a SepYearling purchase in 2016.
3 works june . '17 5 month gap back to work 11/17
Going back to 2013
3 Todd Pletcher Derby horses that didn't start as 2yo in about 20 entrants. Only Patch started later. Verrazano and Materiality were regarded fairly highly.

audible -9/27
vino -11/11
Nblindy -12/3
destin -10/11
outwork -4/13
alw dreaming 7/1
tapwrit 9/3
patch 1/15
carpe diem 9/1
materiality 1/11
stanford 6/29
itsaknockout 12/7
danza 7/12
intense holday 7/27
vinceramos 11/30
charming kitten 7/28
overanalyze 8/9
palice malce 7/05
revltionry 9/3
verazano 1/1

Does it mean anything?? Maybe, maybe not.

[f2tornado]

I'm with you. The Derby pace is likely to be two seconds faster at the 3/4 pole than the Ark meaning he's gotta flash more speed or come from further back. He's not likely to flash 11.99 final panel speed if he's putting forth some of that energy early. I'll add, Saez is capable but he's TAPs third stringer here.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I could say the same thing about Mendelssohn. If he can't rate he certainly isn't going to be able to get away with 25 second quarter and 48 half.

[Robert Fischer]

if my post above looks like gibberish (it is!, no) the dates listed are the calendar dates of the horse's debut. So "Always Dreaming 7/1" = Started July 1st of 2yo year. Everyone is 2yo except for the three 'bolded' January 3yo starters. Magnum Moon debuted 1/13 of his 3yo season

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Theoretically, there is a lot of 'speed' in here with Magnum, Noble, Mendelssohn, Justify, Quip, Flameaway, and Promises. Horses with solid chances and betting interests.

Problem is, none of the 9F preps ran a sub 1:11 first 6 furlongs.

Since the complete meltdown in the 2013 Derby in the very 1st year of the points system, we've had much calmer waters on the front end.

Where is Sinister Minister or Bellamy Road when we need them?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Theoretically, there is a lot of 'speed' in here with Magnum, Noble, Mendelssohn, Justify, Quip, Flameaway, and Promises. Horses with solid chances and betting interests.

Problem is, none of the 9F preps ran a sub 1:11 first 6 furlongs.

Since the complete meltdown in the 2013 Derby in the very 1st year of the points system, we've had much calmer waters on the front end.

Where is Sinister Minister or Bellamy Road when we need them?

Look to the morning-line favorite. :)
They probably know anything below 1:10 will get fried at the top of the lane.

Ever since the points system, there has been a controlling pace but not blazing. I think the Palace Malice experiment was an aberration.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Look to the morning-line favorite. :)
They probably know anything below 1:10 will get fried at the top of the lane.

Ever since the points system, there has been a controlling pace but not blazing. I think the Palace Malice experiment was an aberration.

And this is what bothers me most about a number of entries.

Many a horse, trainer, owner, jockey have obviously decided that they were no longer interested in winning the race and to get as high a board finish as possible.

A number of these are in theory are no chance type horses, but when they don't even give an effort to at least try and take a lead early in the race and see if their horse can't at least get bold and hang on just baffles me.

This year, I'll probably end up mad again when Promises Fulfilled, or Quip, or Flameaway, or Bravazo, or Noble Indy, or Free Drop Billy, or Firenze Fire, or really anybody that doesn't try and take it to Justify and Magnum Moon on the front end. Becasue those horses aren't passing those guys late, much less a number of others, while playing the same game of a solid amount of stalkers and closers that are better than them anyway.

[BlueChip@DRF]

And this is what bothers me most about a number of entries.

Many a horse, trainer, owner, jockey have obviously decided that they were no longer interested in winning the race and to get as high a board finish as possible.

A number of these are in theory are no chance type horses, but when they don't even give an effort to at least try and take a lead early in the race and see if their horse can't at least get bold and hang on just baffles me.

This year, I'll probably end up mad again when Promises Fulfilled, or Quip, or Flameaway, or Bravazo, or Noble Indy, or Free Drop Billy, or Firenze Fire, or really anybody that doesn't try and take it to Justify and Magnum Moon on the front end. Becasue those horses aren't passing those guys late, much less a number of others, while playing the same game of a solid amount of stalkers and closers that are better than them anyway.

I swear I will go postal if they let Justify get away with 47+ up front with a 2-length lead. But I'm sure that there is someone with an E-type that will not try to steal, but have their moment of glory by "leading" the Kentucky Derby field. I think Audible/Velazquez has a good feel for the pace and will be placed accordingly. Hmmmm.... If it a tepid pace, it's gonna look like a Saratoga steeplechase without the hurdles and grass.

[clicknow]

I'll probably end up mad again when Promises Fulfilled, or Quip, or Flameaway, or Bravazo, or Noble Indy, or Free Drop Billy, or Firenze Fire, or really anybody that doesn't try and take it to Justify and Magnum Moon on the front end. Becasue those horses aren't passing those guys late, much less a number of others, while playing the same game of a solid amount of stalkers and closers that are better than them anyway.

In a 20 horse chaos race where so much can go wrong, I've never had an "expectation" that the "best horse will win the KY Derby."

Now, if they win all 3 legs of the TC, I might entertain the thought they are perhaps, or at least close to being, the best of their peers.

However, post KY Derby, when we see so many milers who were low odds, and even horses who are really champion sprinters like Whitmore, who don't belong in the race, but take a lot of money..... I rarely begrudge any horse for winning the Derby. That's all that is required to do on that day. Right?

I guess I don't use the KY Derby as any kind of real yardstick for anything. It's too weird of a race.

I never begrudged Mine That Bird his win on the day. His weaving in and out of all those horses and running past them one-by-one, was exhilarating. A horse has to be right on that day, and also have the ability and stamina and race set up to get it done.

[CincyHorseplayer]

And this is what bothers me most about a number of entries.

Many a horse, trainer, owner, jockey have obviously decided that they were no longer interested in winning the race and to get as high a board finish as possible.

A number of these are in theory are no chance type horses, but when they don't even give an effort to at least try and take a lead early in the race and see if their horse can't at least get bold and hang on just baffles me.

This year, I'll probably end up mad again when Promises Fulfilled, or Quip, or Flameaway, or Bravazo, or Noble Indy, or Free Drop Billy, or Firenze Fire, or really anybody that doesn't try and take it to Justify and Magnum Moon on the front end. Becasue those horses aren't passing those guys late, much less a number of others, while playing the same game of a solid amount of stalkers and closers that are better than them anyway.

Couldn't agree more and couldn't have said it any better. We have the biggest race in this country at max capacity of entrants and we can't get an honestly run race. I think it's less the points system than just lack of balls, sportsmanship, testosterone, or just plain old bad intentions! The big connections and pricey bloodstock get compliance and pampered treatment and way too much respect. Play for blood damnit!

[yankeelpn]

Javier Castellano is on Audible

[BlueChip@DRF]

Magnum Moon doesn't need the lead. In the Arkansas Derby, he inherited the lead as no one else seemed too keen to press any kind of pace. I think Pletcher has found his formula and worked out some type of internal clock to work with the riders and have the horses run at their own pace.

[f2tornado]

Magnum Moon doesn't need the lead. In the Arkansas Derby, he inherited the lead as no one else seemed too keen to press any kind of pace.

This seems to be the case for most and perhaps the entire gate. Every damn horse hit the 3/4 pole in 1:11+ last out. If they run like that in the Derby then it's gonna be like Talladega and the greatest two minutes in sports will be condensed into the greatest 30 seconds.

[GMB@BP]

Magnum Moon doesn't need the lead. In the Arkansas Derby, he inherited the lead as no one else seemed too keen to press any kind of pace. I think Pletcher has found his formula and worked out some type of internal clock to work with the riders and have the horses run at their own pace.

He may not need the lead, the question is will he feel comfortable going the same pace and be in about 8th or can he go faster early and still finish? Either way its a big unknown for a horse who may be second choice.

[BlueChip@DRF]

He may not need the lead, the question is will he feel comfortable going the same pace and be in about 8th or can he go faster early and still finish? Either way its a big unknown for a horse who may be second choice.

The entire field is an unknown. We will see what happens. No one can predict the break.

[Tom]

I can - my horse, whoever it turns out to be, will miss it!:headbanger:

[GMB@BP]

I can - my horse, whoever it turns out to be, will miss it!:headbanger:

yup, lead pipe lock

[boys at tosconova]

this horse scares the chit out of me. the more i study and watch him..the more i like him.

[PowerUpPaynter]

this one worries me im tossing from the top of my tickets. got rave reviews how he looked today

[clicknow]

MM is a good gate horse. Of course you never know how they're going to react to the huge crowds and general hub-bub of CDX on Derby Day. His good gate speed is somewhat counteracted by his tendency to drift in the stretch. I believe there are 2 races where he drifted.

Pletcher horses have won derby on sloppy/wet tracks on the rail, and one time he got Borel who was perfect for that kind of ride.

All said, I have no problem leaving him off the win portion of my ticket, this isn't GP or NY and I just don't think, as a combo, that pletcher/JV are going to pull off back-to-back derby wins .

[f2tornado]

I look at the Rebel and he hit the 3/4 in 1:11 and change. Then no real pressure in the Ark and he crawled at 1:13 and change. Perhaps the track was a little slow after rain the previous evening but doubt it was that slow. Hard to get a solid read on him but I am tentatively deciding to leave off my tickets altogether unless he draws an inside hole. His E1/E2 route pace figures are light while doing it from easy posts 6,4,5 in previous three outings. If he runs the same style then I predict he will be passing horses late but finish off the board. If he hangs with the leaders then I question how his speed will hold up late. There are just too many nice horses this year and some will necessarily need to be excluded from tickets.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Lot of talent this year. Can't have an endless amount of includes if you want to drill down likely mediocre payoffs. I'll be not including this one on my P3-4 tickets.