It's getting ridiculous!

[Track Phantom]

Been monitoring the late money flow now for two weeks, paying much closer attention to where the final flash of money is landing. I'm absolutely MOUTH ON THE FLOOR STUNNED, much, much more than I thought I'd be, at how accurate the late money is. Doesn't matter the morning line. 20-1, 15-1, 10-1. If they win, they are hit hard late.

There are a lot of things that could be fatal to this game but this phenomenon could be the beginning of the end. Every single horse player is disgusted by the late odds movements (which by the way, is disproportionately high on the winners) but the game does ZERO to understand why it's happening and remove negative perceptions. They will regret this inaction.

Do longshots win? Yes, at times. But very often those longshots end up being underlays even at double digits because of wise late money.

I have no idea how the late money is so accurate. Maybe someone has picked the lock in this game, maybe it's something else. Really doesn't matter.

We've had 5 consecutive years of Derby winning favorites and a superfecta that had the top 4 in exact order just 2 years ago. Now virtually every winner is bottom'd out after the general public bets. Harness racing may need to make space on the scrap heap.

[JustRalph]

We finally ran out of dumb money

[Track Phantom]

We finally ran out of dumb money
I thought about that after I typed this. Maybe 15-20 years ago the influx of casual or dumb money was greater. I really don't have a clue. I'll say this though. The game we are seeing today is virtually unrecognizable to the game I was introduced to. This odds dropper thing is fairly new (maybe 5-10 years at most) and has increased dramatically in the last two years.

There is a rhythm to the betting and a predictability based on the public tendencies. The new way of things has pushed that aside which means wherever and however this late money is getting into the pools, it is miles more accurate than anything normal handicapping can find.

If it continues at this pace, the game will cease in it's current form within 10 years.

[Cholly]

We finally ran out of dumb money

nope, I'm still here.

But I will say that Chollyworld is starting to feel like a very lonely planet...

[SandyW]

We have been listening to the death knell of racing for years and the the handle just keep going up.
Late money has been hitting the pools for as long as I can remember. I have been playing this game since 1958 and I'm still waiting for the next day's racing just as enthusiastic as ever.

[Track Phantom]

We have been listening to the death knell of racing for years and the the handle just keep going up.
Late money has been hitting the pools for as long as I can remember. I have been playing this game since 1958 and I'm still waiting for the next day's racing just as enthusiastic as ever.
End of discussion, I guess.

[thaskalos]

In the 6th at Charles Town tonight...the :2: (Sir Longwood) took the lead and was shown on the screen to be at 18-1 odds at the quarter-mile marker. The horse was also 18-1 on the screen at the half mile. But, by the time the horse won the 6.5 furlong race, it stood at 8-1 on the board...proving that this late money doesn't just isolate on the "obvious overlays". But, hey...who would be greedy enough to complain about a $19.80 win-mutuel. :rolleyes:

[TiffaniO]

In the 6th at Charles Town tonight...the :2: (Sir Longwood) took the lead and was shown on the screen to be at 18-1 odds at the quarter-mile marker. The horse was also 18-1 on the screen at the half mile. But, by the time the horse won the 6.5 furlong race, it stood at 8-1 on the board...proving that this late money doesn't just isolate on the "obvious overlays". But, hey...who would be greedy enough to complain about a $19.80 win-mutuel. :rolleyes:

I don’t know where you ever saw 18-1 during the race... this screenshot is 1/8 of a mile into the race... he’s 8-1 clearly.

[thaskalos]

I don’t know where you ever saw 18-1 during the race... this screenshot is 1/8 of a mile into the race... he’s 8-1 clearly.

WOW...I've got to get me some GLASSES! :eek:

Was he 18-1 before the start...or was I wrong about that too?

[TiffaniO]

WOW...I've got to get me some GLASSES! :eek:

Was he 18-1 before the start...or was I wrong about that too?

I was going to suggest new glasses but I didn’t want to come off as a B lol

The last time I recall he was 9-1 with a few minutes to post.

[thaskalos]

I was going to suggest new glasses but I didn’t want to come off as a B lol

The last time I recall he was 9-1 with a few minutes to post.

This honestly makes me wonder about my state of mind as of late. I would have sworn that this horse was 18-1...even during the running of the race. What the heck could I have been watching?

[castaway01]

We have been listening to the death knell of racing for years and the the handle just keep going up.
Late money has been hitting the pools for as long as I can remember. I have been playing this game since 1958 and I'm still waiting for the next day's racing just as enthusiastic as ever.

The first sentence is factually incorrect. Handle peaked in 2003 (that's 15 years ago), plummeted in the latter part of the last decade, and has held near even in the past five years.

Handle was $15.1 billion in 2003 and $10.9 billion last year.

[cj]

The first sentence is factually incorrect. Handle peaked in 2003 (that's 15 years ago), plummeted in the latter part of the last decade, and has held near even in the past five years.

Handle was $15.1 billion in 2003 and $10.9 billion last year.

Not to mention the only thing keeping handle steady for the most part is huge rebated players and CRW teams.

[TiffaniO]

Not to mention the only thing keeping handle steady for the most part is huge rebated players and CRW teams.

Handle may be lower but there are also less race days and less races per day.

I’m sure the difference in both from 2003 to 2018 is staggering.

[TiffaniO]

This honestly makes me wonder about my state of mind as of late. I would have sworn that this horse was 18-1...even during the running of the race. What the heck could I have been watching?

What I’ve noticed is, I’ll see a horse that is 16-1 with a few minutes to post but his will pays suggest he’s 5 or 6-1 in those. Those are the horses that drop dramatically at post. I’m sure that is the computer programs realizing that and hammering them.

I got tired of seeing odds drop years ago, so the only time I’ve ever wagered to win on a horse were my own horses. I instead play trifectas, supers and pick 4s

[GMB@BP]

Charlestown handle though is pretty small, it would take much to make a mid priced horse significantly lower.

When I see a horse on Keeneland opening weekend go from gate even money to 1/5, thats a pretty good sized amount of cash.

[cj]

Handle may be lower but there are also less race days and less races per day.

I’m sure the difference in both from 2003 to 2018 is staggering.

No doubt there is less racing, but somebody is keeping the handle level, and it isn't Joe Grandstand betting six horse fields with an odds on favorite in half the races.

[TiffaniO]

No doubt there is less racing, but somebody is keeping the handle level, and it isn't Joe Grandstand betting six horse fields with an odds on favorite in half the races.

And that’s why the tracks are never going to turn that money down.

[cj]

And that’s why the tracks are never going to turn that money down.

I agree, but it won't last. It can't last.

[thaskalos]

I agree, but it won't last. It can't last.

It will last as long as the "suckers" remain in the game. Up'til now...the "suckers" were those who were worse, or more "undisciplined", then we are. Well...as these "suckers" continue to file out of this game, as they've been doing for years now...then the profit margins in this game will continue to shrink...because the remaining overall competition will continue to get stronger and stronger. It will eventually become a battle between the SHARKS(us), and the WHALES("them")...so to speak. And, when the suckers are finally all-gone -- and they will be, eventually -- then WE will be the "suckers". Because, under the current working conditions...the "Sharks" have no chance against the "Whales"...IMO.

[PaceAdvantage]

WOW...I've got to get me some GLASSES! :eek:

Was he 18-1 before the start...or was I wrong about that too?According to http://www.buildabet2.com/ he was last seen at 18-1 somewhere around the 6MTP mark...and dropped every minute after that.

[GMB@BP]

It will last as long as the "suckers" remain in the game. Up'til now...the "suckers" were those who were worse, or more "undisciplined", then we are. Well...as these "suckers" continue to file out of this game, as they've been doing for years now...then the profit margins in this game will continue to shrink...because the remaining overall competition will continue to get stronger and stronger. It will eventually become a battle between the SHARKS(us), and the WHALES("them")...so to speak. And, when the suckers are finally all-gone -- and they will be, eventually -- then WE will be the "suckers". Because, under the current working conditions...the "Sharks" have no chance against the "Whales"...IMO.

I agree

As a player I can navigate the higher takeout when its normal pari mutual game, its not easy, but these CRW teams I dont think its possible to now find that value on a consistent enough basis.

75% of my play has moved to contests. I would imagine it continues that way, I cant get CRW or anything in that format.

[Track Phantom]

I agree

As a player I can navigate the higher takeout when its normal pari mutual game, its not easy, but these CRW teams I dont think its possible to now find that value on a consistent enough basis.

75% of my play has moved to contests. I would imagine it continues that way, I cant get CRW or anything in that format.
I agree with your post. I hate high takeout but at least I can account for it. It is needed to keep the lights on and gates opening.

I really cannot understand this late rush of money. Not that it's coming in late. That part I get and probably has always been that way, maybe just more of it now with CRW betting. What I can't understand is how the late money is so precise. The late dollars are disproportionately tagging the eventual winner. I have no idea how but if this is the way it will always be then the game will completely erode away sooner than later.

Interestingly, I stumbled across a few DRF's from 1989. I just happened to glance at the result charts for Saratoga for a Friday. Every single field was 11+, most were 12 and a couple were 13 horses deep. The payoffs were insane. 15-1 winners were 55-1 shots running second. It looked nothing like the result charts of today. Nothing. If I knew how, I'd import some screen shots for everyone. It's easy to forget how it really used to be.

[castaway01]

Handle may be lower but there are also less race days and less races per day.

I’m sure the difference in both from 2003 to 2018 is staggering.

I'm not sure what your point would be as far as the health of the game---it's like saying "our store's revenue is down 40%" and explaining it "yeah, but we're only open 10 hours a day instead of 16 so it's fine". You're still not making any money.

[TiffaniO]

I'm not sure what your point would be as far as the health of the game---it's like saying "our store's revenue is down 40%" and explaining it "yeah, but we're only open 10 hours a day instead of 16 so it's fine". You're still not making any money.

Well to explain it...
I’m saying comparing total handle dollar for dollar with hundreds less racing days is not the way to do it...

[AstrosFan]

I play the Pick 3 - 4's so I can't be affected by any late odds changes