Rayya's Times, the magical rail exagerated?

[papillon]

As everyone knows, the data for Mendelssohn on dirt is limited to one race at one track at one distance in one path.

However, the data for Rayya, who came in second to Mendelssohn on the same dirt at the same track at the same distance in the same path, comprises two races: 1:59.66 (UAE Oaks) and 1:58.42 (UAE Derby).

She gained less than a second along the rail on a track that is imputed to have been considerably faster than 1 second. I would have assumed the "adjusted" track speed would at least rival Justify's 3 seconds, but against the UAE runners, as opposed to for them in Justify's case. This doesn't appear the case.

Using the time honored 1 second = 5 lengths, Mendelssohn's 1:55.18 is exactly what it should have been and his 18th lengths were not due to the rail, but to his effort and his stamina. It seems unlikely the track would have been faster for him than for her, so let's add a second to his time: 1:56.18, which is still fast enough to win most Preaknesses, to account for the differences between her times.

The rail could very well have prevented any horse gaining, but it does not appear to have magically given Mendelssohn 18 lengths. Setting aside all of the "you're a dummy, real time is fake time, fake time is real time" insults coming my way, the internals provide the least objectionable to Oxam's Razor explanation for the results:

1/4

Mendelsohn 25.09 (Thunder Snow 25.73)
Rayya 25.33 (West Coast 25.88)
Gold Coast 25.37 (Pavel 26.12)
Reride 25.57 (Mubtahij 26.77)

3/4

Mendelssohn 1:11.87 (Thunder Snow 1:13.89)
Rayya 1:12.09 (West Coast 1:13.96)
Reride 1:12.17 (Pavel 1:14.11)
Gold Coast 1:12.72 (Mubtahij 1:14.14)

Mile

Mendelssohn 1:36.31 (Thunder Snow 1:37.21)
Rayya 1:37.85 (West Coast 1:37.39)
Reride 1:39.07 (Pavel 1:37.75; Mubtahij 1:38.26)

All horses were carrying 126lbs (except perhaps Rayya).

There is a logical fallacy that a track must be fast and not taxing in order to result in a merry go round order, but that doesn't happen because of the speed of the track. It happens because of how fast each horse took up position and the clip they were traveling at when they did. If all horses are traveling at the same speed, the intial order will not, cannot, change. But as soon as their clips change, their distance between each other changes. And their clips changing is based on lactic acid threshhold.

There is another fallacy that if records fall at a track the track must be faster in relation to other tracks. None of the times posted came anywhere near American track records. The track was faster than it had been in relation to itself, but 2:01 is not fast, unless you mean Justify in the SA derby fast. If so, then Mendelssohn ran the equivalent of 22.09, 1:09.87, 1:33.31, 1:52.18, which I don't think you mean.

My guess is that the track is more tiring than most American tracks, and that Rayya's 3/4 a second was not a gift from the track, but that she actually ran faster, and began to hit the wall between 7-8F, then ran slower and slower. This is in perfect unison with the results, and means that Mendelssohn's 18 lengths were because he did not begin to hit the wall until 8-9f. If I'm right, Rayya should be in the derby, not the oaks. And Mendelssohn is the fastest 3yo.

Mendelssohn's performance is perhaps better understood in relation to Beholder's performances, then to the other 3yos'. She out ran her pedigree by 4fs, she had the Henessy speed but what appears to be the Leslie's Lady stamina. She could lope along at the same speed as the horses in front of her then pass the between 5-6f as they hit their thresholds one by one, and maintain her speed to the end. She used her Henessy speed to stay close and her Leslie's Lady stamina carried her past everyone as they reached their lactic acid threshold. Mendelssohn didn't accelerate, he maintained. Mendelssohn is out of the Henessy/Leslie's Lady Nick.

Whether he has a shot will be decided to how close to the front he can get, and when the other horses hit their thresholds. If his UAE derby is indicitive he will hit his late in the stretch. There won't be many that can match that.

I'm not saying he'll win, he likely won't for a whole slew of reasons.


FWIW West Coast and Pavel hit their lactic acid threshold exactly where they always do 6-7f. They ran the exact same race they always do, it's just people had decided that West Coast was a world beater. If he was he should have easily passed Gunrunner in the Pegagsus due to the iron law of crosswinds of which he had sat in the cat bird seat for the entire race, while Collected and Gunrunner took the full brunt. Gunrunner's effort in the Pegasus was so much better than even those who know it was oustanding will ever realize because they do not understand crosswinds. I said all of this on Bloodhorse well before the race FWIW, if you'd like to check.

[Mc990]

As everyone knows, the data for Mendelssohn on dirt is limited to one race at one track at one distance in one path.

However, the data for Rayya, who came in second to Mendelssohn on the same dirt at the same track at the same distance in the same path, comprises two races: 1:59.66 (UAE Oaks) and 1:58.42 (UAE Derby).

She gained less than a second along the rail on a track that is imputed to have been considerably faster than 1 second. I would have assumed the "adjusted" track speed would at least rival Justify's 3 seconds, but against the UAE runners, as opposed to for them in Justify's case. This doesn't appear the case.

Using the time honored 1 second = 5 lengths, Mendelssohn's 1:55.18 is exactly what it should have been and his 18th lengths were not due to the rail, but to his effort and his stamina. It seems unlikely the track would have been faster for him than for her, so let's add a second to his time: 1:56.18, which is still fast enough to win most Preaknesses, to account for the differences between her times.

The rail could very well have prevented any horse gaining, but it does not appear to have magically given Mendelssohn 18 lengths. Setting aside all of the "you're a dummy, real time is fake time, fake time is real time" insults coming my way, the internals provide the least objectionable to Oxam's Razor explanation for the results:

1/4

Mendelsohn 25.09 (Thunder Snow 25.73)
Rayya 25.33 (West Coast 25.88)
Gold Coast 25.37 (Pavel 26.12)
Reride 25.57 (Mubtahij 26.77)

3/4

Mendelssohn 1:11.87 (Thunder Snow 1:13.89)
Rayya 1:12.09 (West Coast 1:13.96)
Reride 1:12.17 (Pavel 1:14.11)
Gold Coast 1:12.72 (Mubtahij 1:14.14)

Mile

Mendelssohn 1:36.31 (Thunder Snow 1:37.21)
Rayya 1:37.85 (West Coast 1:37.39)
Reride 1:39.07 (Pavel 1:37.75; Mubtahij 1:38.26)

All horses were carrying 126lbs (except perhaps Rayya).

There is a logical fallacy that a track must be fast and not taxing in order to result in a merry go round order, but that doesn't happen because of the speed of the track. It happens because of how fast each horse took up position and the clip they were traveling at when they did. If all horses are traveling at the same speed, the intial order will not, cannot, change. But as soon as their clips change, their distance between each other changes. And their clips changing is based on lactic acid threshhold.

There is another fallacy that if records fall at a track the track must be faster in relation to other tracks. None of the times posted came anywhere near American track records. The track was faster than it had been in relation to itself, but 2:01 is not fast, unless you mean Justify in the SA derby fast. If so, then Mendelssohn ran the equivalent of 22.09, 1:09.87, 1:33.31, 1:52.18, which I don't think you mean.

My guess is that the track is more tiring than most American tracks, and that Rayya's 3/4 a second was not a gift from the track, but that she actually ran faster, and began to hit the wall between 7-8F, then ran slower and slower. This is in perfect unison with the results, and means that Mendelssohn's 18 lengths were because he did not begin to hit the wall until 8-9f. If I'm right, Rayya should be in the derby, not the oaks. And Mendelssohn is the fastest 3yo.

Mendelssohn's performance is perhaps better understood in relation to Beholder's performances, then to the other 3yos'. She out ran her pedigree by 4fs, she had the Henessy speed but what appears to be the Leslie's Lady stamina. She could lope along at the same speed as the horses in front of her then pass the between 5-6f as they hit their thresholds one by one, and maintain her speed to the end. She used her Henessy speed to stay close and her Leslie's Lady stamina carried her past everyone as they reached their lactic acid threshold. Mendelssohn didn't accelerate, he maintained. Mendelssohn is out of the Henessy/Leslie's Lady Nick.

Whether he has a shot will be decided to how close to the front he can get, and when the other horses hit their thresholds. If his UAE derby is indicitive he will hit his late in the stretch. There won't be many that can match that.

I'm not saying he'll win, he likely won't for a whole slew of reasons.


FWIW West Coast and Pavel hit their lactic acid threshold exactly where they always do 6-7f. They ran the exact same race they always do, it's just people had decided that West Coast was a world beater. If he was he should have easily passed Gunrunner in the Pegagsus due to the iron law of crosswinds of which he had sat in the cat bird seat for the entire race, while Collected and Gunrunner took the full brunt. Gunrunner's effort in the Pegasus was so much better than even those who know it was oustanding will ever realize because they do not understand crosswinds. I said all of this on Bloodhorse well before the race FWIW, if you'd like to check.

Well... Mendelssohn IS the fastest 3 yr old on Ragozin and TG so I'm not sure what point you're trying to make as far as that's concerned. The question in my mind doesn't concern his figure but his ability to replicate it. That's a big figure for a spring 3 yr old who popped first time dirt.

The percentages say he bounces but I think that could be somewhat mitigated by lasix and the 6 weeks. He can go back a couple and still win.

Also, it's going to be difficult to compare Meydan times to US because there is no run up.

[Spalding No!]

However, the data for Rayya, who came in second to Mendelssohn on the same dirt at the same track at the same distance in the same path, comprises two races: 1:59.66 (UAE Oaks) and 1:58.42 (UAE Derby).

She gained less than a second along the rail on a track that is imputed to have been considerably faster than 1 second.
The front end and the rail were the places to be supposedly throughout the Dubai Carnival, not just World Cup day. See the Mr. Vosburgh video.

Sure enough, Rayya was one of the 16 (of 17 races) winners in dirt races at Meydan that assumed the early lead and rode the rail. So it is not necessarily a given that she should have improved time-wise very much from her UAE Oaks. By the way, she also carried more weight in the UAE Oaks (126 lbs to 121 lbs in the Derby).

None of that though explains why Mendelssohn won by a massive 18 lengths. The probable explanation is fairly simple, Mendelssohn completely outclassed those horses.

So who did he beat? Rayya, a filly with a modest pedigree that sold for $7,000 as a yearling. Gold Town, a Godolphin failure in Europe who was gelded after being unable to place in even listed stakes company. Reride, a second stringer from the Steve Asmussen barn--who doesn't have a Derby major contender to begin with--who has run at Delta Downs and Sunland Park. The latter's claim to fame is besting a horse named Runaway Ghost.

The only race of consequence Runaway Ghost ever started in was the Los Alamitos Futurity against modest Derby prospects Solomini and Instilled Regard and the injured McKenzie.

He was beaten 36 lengths.

Suddenly those 18 lengths don't look that amazing.

Mendelssohn's performance is perhaps better understood in relation to Beholder's performances, then to the other 3yos'. She out ran her pedigree by 4fs, she had the Henessy speed but what appears to be the Leslie's Lady stamina. She could lope along at the same speed as the horses in front of her then pass the between 5-6f as they hit their thresholds one by one, and maintain her speed to the end. She used her Henessy speed to stay close and her Leslie's Lady stamina carried her past everyone as they reached their lactic acid threshold. Mendelssohn didn't accelerate, he maintained. Mendelssohn is out of the Henessy/Leslie's Lady Nick.
The furthest distance Leslie's Lady won a race at was 6.5f.

[SkunkApe]

Interesting, and very well written.

Skipping to the logical conclusion, this is what I have trouble accepting:

“If I’m right, Rayya should be in the derby, not the oaks.”

The good news is, we can see how she runs on Friday, and still have time to recalibrate for Saturday.

[f2tornado]

The good news is, we can see how she runs on Friday, and still have time to recalibrate for Saturday.

Precisely my thoughts to potentially calibrate times from other tracks for Derby contenders. I'm having a hard time taking some of the prep speed figures at face value this year. Perhaps a good thing since best Beyer last out is 2 winners in last 15 and best Brisnet is 5 winners in last 29.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Precisely my thoughts to potentially calibrate times from other tracks for Derby contenders. I'm having a hard time taking some of the prep speed figures at face value this year. Perhaps a good thing since best Beyer last out is 2 winners in last 15 and best Brisnet is 5 winners in last 29.

Best Beyers and top figure in a race like this I absolutely believe that. But fast via the Beyer scale is still bigtime relevant. Just looking 8 of 14 winners had a 100+ Beyer last out. If you go to 96 or higher that number becomes 12 of 14. Fast still wins even though fastest may not.

[AskinHaskin]

As everyone knows, the data for Mendelssohn on dirt is limited to one race at one track at one distance in one path.

What are you talking about?

Aidan O'Brien has afforded you 57 bits of data on U.S. dirt.

He's 2-3-2 lifetime.



However, the data for Rayya, who came in second to Mendelssohn on the same dirt at the same track at the same distance in the same path, comprises two races: 1:59.66 (UAE Oaks) and 1:58.42 (UAE Derby).



... the same Rayya who staggered along to top some steed shipping from New Mexico ??


Whyyyyyyyyy are you even talking about either one??

[LoneF]

The front end and the rail were the places to be supposedly throughout the Dubai Carnival, not just World Cup day. See the Mr. Vosburgh video.

Sure enough, Rayya was one of the 16 (of 17 races) winners in dirt races at Meydan that assumed the early lead and rode the rail. So it is not necessarily a given that she should have improved time-wise very much from her UAE Oaks. By the way, she also carried more weight in the UAE Oaks (126 lbs to 121 lbs in the Derby).

None of that though explains why Mendelssohn won by a massive 18 lengths. The probable explanation is fairly simple, Mendelssohn completely outclassed those horses.

So who did he beat? Rayya, a filly with a modest pedigree that sold for $7,000 as a yearling. Gold Town, a Godolphin failure in Europe who was gelded after being unable to place in even listed stakes company. Reride, a second stringer from the Steve Asmussen barn--who doesn't have a Derby major contender to begin with--who has run at Delta Downs and Sunland Park. The latter's claim to fame is besting a horse named Runaway Ghost.

The only race of consequence Runaway Ghost ever started in was the Los Alamitos Futurity against modest Derby prospects Solomini and Instilled Regard and the injured McKenzie.

He was beaten 36 lengths.

Suddenly those 18 lengths don't look that amazing.


The furthest distance Leslie's Lady won a race at was 6.5f.

Who did he beat ????

PLEASE tell me your not a Justify fan asking that question of Mendelssohn !!!

[LoneF]

Raaya , Reride and Gold Town look like Secretariat compared to 13 of the 14 deadbeats that Justify has lined up against in his career and than there was all the quality horses Mendelssohn beat in the BC Turf and don’t tell me that race is not relevant when you have Bolt and Free Drop Billy fans going back to races midway through their 2 yr old years to make the case for those horses lol.

[LoneF]

I’ll have a few bucks on that Raaya and Mendelssohn oaks/derby double

[GMB@BP]

Who did he beat ????

PLEASE tell me your not a Justify fan asking that question of Mendelssohn !!!

no he is not, not the way spalding operates, he is the furthest from any kind of fan boy of anything, let alone Justify.

He was just pointing out that Mendhelsohns win is a bit dressed up, still excellent but the margin of victory is inflated for a few reasons. He is going to be in the 6/1 range, those questions are a valid reason for thinking he might not be 18% to win this race.

I feel like he is at best 10%.

[cj]

Who did he beat ????

PLEASE tell me your not a Justify fan asking that question of Mendelssohn !!!

Think of it this way. If Justify didn't exist, and Bolt d'Oro smashed the Santa Anita Derby after winning his seasonal debut (via DQ of course), he'd be the favorite for sure in the Derby. That is who Justify beat. That is probably a bigger scalp than any other horse in the field has, along with Good Magic and Solomini.

Nothing wrong with thinking he is not a good bet, but having almost every post be something negative about the same horse is getting a bit old. We get it already. You got something else to contribute? ANYTHING else?

[Vinnie]

Who did he beat ????

PLEASE tell me your not a Justify fan asking that question of Mendelssohn !!!

Maybe if things don't go according to plan come the 5th of May, and if in a strange way we are very lucky or fortunate, the first 100 posts or so from this person might magically disappear.

[LoneF]

Think of it this way. If Justify didn't exist, and Bolt d'Oro smashed the Santa Anita Derby after winning his seasonal debut (via DQ of course), he'd be the favorite for sure in the Derby. That is who Justify beat. That is probably a bigger scalp than any other horse in the field has, along with Good Magic and Solomini.

Nothing wrong with thinking he is not a good bet, but having almost every post be something negative about the same horse is getting a bit old. We get it already. You got something else to contribute? ANYTHING else?

I actually have written on just about every horse in the field and touched on other subjects such as jockeys and bet structures. It’s true everything I have written about Justify is negative so I can see how my posts would rub a Justify fanboy the wrong way. I sincerely apologize if I hurt anyone’s feelings.

Furthermore I usually only bring up Justify when I am disputing something that somebody says positive about him. There is so many fanboys of Justify here that the positive posts can create a very warm positive emotional vibe for the Justify fanboys and since his entire 100% appeal is based on the emotion of wanting him to be the next American Pharoah I can understand how my reality based posts can interfere with the emotion based logic of the Justify faithful so I will try to limit my negative Justify posts ...

[GMB@BP]

Justify fan boys = Handicappers who think he is fast and talented

Yea, there a lot of us I suppose.

[SkunkApe]

Not to scare you guys, but a horrifying but somewhat possible scenario occured to me:

What if Mendelssohn doesn’t actually start, and Justify wins?

God help us all. We’ll never hear the end of it.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not to scare you guys, but a horrifying but somewhat possible scenario occured to me:

What if Mendelssohn doesn’t actually start, and Justify wins?

God help us all. We’ll never hear the end of it.

Mendelssohn might not pass quarantine after all the stuff LoneF has put on (or in) him.

Anything short of 1:59 flat will be a massive disappointment.

[SkunkApe]

...

[CincyHorseplayer]

...

Yep not much ball room in this discourse!

[Tom]

Not to scare you guys, but a horrifying but somewhat possible scenario occured to me:

What if Mendelssohn doesn’t actually start, and Justify wins?

God help us all. We’ll never hear the end of it.

And what if Mendy does start and is nowhere at the wire?
Can you promise we will hear the end of it? :rolleyes:

[LoneF]

...

Ok that was good gotta give you credit for that one lol

[SkunkApe]

Ok that was good gotta give you credit for that one lol

:headbanger:

[clicknow]

The front end and the rail were the places to be supposedly throughout the Dubai Carnival, not just World Cup day. See the Mr. Vosburgh video.

This is the video guy who suggested to "toss" Quip off the Arkansas Derby ticket and had Strike Power and Catholic boy as his exacta in the FL Derby.

I didn't see any of the other videos, but decided based on those 2 that his opinion isn't really any BETTER than anyone else here, so i probably won't bother.

I don't know if he is a win candidate but I do look forward to seeing Mendy when he arrives here.

Papillon, that was an interesting post.

After seeing Raaya's works out in S.A. with Abel Talisman, she appears to be a pretty good and fast DIRT horse. I expect the same is true of Mendelssohn.

[papillon]

Well... Mendelssohn IS the fastest 3 yr old on Ragozin and TG so I'm not sure what point you're trying to make as far as that's concerned. The question in my mind doesn't concern his figure but his ability to replicate it. That's a big figure for a spring 3 yr old who popped first time dirt.

The percentages say he bounces but I think that could be somewhat mitigated by lasix and the 6 weeks. He can go back a couple and still win.

Also, it's going to be difficult to compare Meydan times to US because there is no run up.


Not everyone has access to Ragozin and Thorograph. I read Thorograph's board, but do not post there, because I am not a customer and they are pretty tight lipped about the figs.

It just seems to me that while I accept the rail was the place to be and know that in such cases making up ground is almost impossible, either Mendelssohn was considerably faster than the older males, or the track slowed considerably inbetween, and that is a very powerful track. It can make you fast, it can make you slow, all attributed to the same cause.

One of set of times has to be the most accurate for that track on that day. If it's the derby's, then the three year olds would have crushed the older males, and before I'm castigated, Mendelsohn and Rayya would have seized the yellow brick rail long before Thunder Snow and been uncatchable. If it's the WC's, then the track lost 2 seconds in a matter of hours and Mendelssohn is one of the slowest three year olds.

I am frequently unclear, so I will try to tighten my point about Rayya's times. Their significance for me is to establish the "true speed" of the track in relation to itself. She ran back to her time. That suggests to me that her splits in the derby, and every other horse in the derby were "true," and they would have crushed the older males, and Mendelsohn cruzed until 8-9f when he began to hit his lactic acid threshold. He would have beaten West Cost by over 20 lengths. I'm not suggesting his times/outcomes on another track, but an evaluation of his raw talent. He woukd have been Beholder in her first Pacific Classic.

I have no idea how he will do in the derby, the weather may kill his chances before he even gets out of the gate.

[papillon]

The front end and the rail were the places to be supposedly throughout the Dubai Carnival, not just World Cup day. See the Mr. Vosburgh video.

Sure enough, Rayya was one of the 16 (of 17 races) winners in dirt races at Meydan that assumed the early lead and rode the rail. So it is not necessarily a given that she should have improved time-wise very much from her UAE Oaks. By the way, she also carried more weight in the UAE Oaks (126 lbs to 121 lbs in the Derby).

None of that though explains why Mendelssohn won by a massive 18 lengths. The probable explanation is fairly simple, Mendelssohn completely outclassed those horses.

So who did he beat? Rayya, a filly with a modest pedigree that sold for $7,000 as a yearling. Gold Town, a Godolphin failure in Europe who was gelded after being unable to place in even listed stakes company. Reride, a second stringer from the Steve Asmussen barn--who doesn't have a Derby major contender to begin with--who has run at Delta Downs and Sunland Park. The latter's claim to fame is besting a horse named Runaway Ghost.

The only race of consequence Runaway Ghost ever started in was the Los Alamitos Futurity against modest Derby prospects Solomini and Instilled Regard and the injured McKenzie.

He was beaten 36 lengths.

Suddenly those 18 lengths don't look that amazing.


The furthest distance Leslie's Lady won a race at was 6.5f.


I realize you wrote this before Rayya's work with Abel Tasman. That work suggests she's the real deal.

FWIW Rayya has a 100% pure dirt pedigree, Tiznow/Corronado's Quest nick. Tiz Wonderful only raced 3 times so we have no idea his potential. She even has Hennessy through her sire's dam. I'm actually more impressed with her having verification she did carry 126 once going 9 3/16. Her 3/4 of second gain could simply have been due to her weight break, not the track, meaning he really did run 1:55, not an adjusted 1:56.

It's a dangerous game playing, whom did who beat? Often comes back to bite you on the butt. Horses considered good today, may look different in hindsight and vice versa.

Goldophin horses only look good in Dubai, Dubai has a magical effect on them...beating them there is a testament in and of itself.

Aspidistra was a claimer. What gets passed on does not always manifest. People thought the duaghter of Henny Hughs was destined to be a sprinter too.

I watched Mr. Vosburg. The rail was the place to be, but using records falling left and right is meaningless. The dirt has not been in place for long, the season is brief, and most of the horses are not dirt pedigree horses, and the track could certainly have been faster, but it was not producing SA records on steriods faster. It was running more like a normal dirt track.

Reride ran in line with his past performances, he did not run significantly faster than he had before.

I'm not trying to sell you Mendelssohn, I actually prefer if people think he's fools gold. I just have been bemused by the disparity between accepting his performance vs accepting Justify's.

I am sanguine about "bouncing," horses only seem to bounce in retrospect. Horses not expected to bounce somehow always have other explanations for running up the track, and horses who were supposed to bounce, but don't...well that gets swept under the rug.

[papillon]

What are you talking about?

Aidan O'Brien has afforded you 57 bits of data on U.S. dirt.

He's 2-3-2 lifetime.




... the same Rayya who staggered along to top some steed shipping from New Mexico ??


Whyyyyyyyyy are you even talking about either one??

I don't understand this, but anyway, you don't have to be nasty.

[Spalding No!]

I realize you wrote this before Rayya's work with Abel Tasman. That work suggests she's the real deal.
I wouldn't go that far. Yes, she outbroke Abel Tasman--a historically slow starter--but Rayya has 4 starts this year and been hustled from the gate each time while the latter hasn't raced in 6 months.

Abel Tasman made up the 3 length deficit on Rayya with relative ease (to be fair, Rayya was kept out in the middle of the track). In the stretch, Abel Tasman was well within herself, with Martin Garcia high over the saddle with his hands virtually still on her neck aside from mild taps on her shoulder with a flick of the wrist. Van Dyke meanwhile was low in the saddle and scruffing energetically to get Rayya to keep up at the wire.

FWIW Rayya has a 100% pure dirt pedigree, Tiznow/Corronado's Quest nick. Tiz Wonderful only raced 3 times so we have no idea his potential.
Tiz Wonderful suffered two major injuries, one at 2 and one at 3 despite the limited starts so we definitely have an idea of his inherent soundness. He has made virtually no impact at stud aside from a few sprint fillies and was carted off to South Korea a couple of years ago.

[señorclipclop]

If Rayya wins convincingly, will Mendelssohn vie for favoritism?

[SkunkApe]

If Rayya wins convincingly, will Mendelssohn vie for favoritism?

It would surely raise his esteem, in my book.


“Beat the best three-year old filly”, weak as it is, is surely better than “beat a bunch of stiffs in the desert on a fast rail”.:)

[depalma113]

As everyone knows, the data for Mendelssohn on dirt is limited to one race at one track at one distance in one path.

However, the data for Rayya, who came in second to Mendelssohn on the same dirt at the same track at the same distance in the same path, comprises two races: 1:59.66 (UAE Oaks) and 1:58.42 (UAE Derby).

She gained less than a second along the rail on a track that is imputed to have been considerably faster than 1 second. I would have assumed the "adjusted" track speed would at least rival Justify's 3 seconds, but against the UAE runners, as opposed to for them in Justify's case. This doesn't appear the case.

Using the time honored 1 second = 5 lengths, Mendelssohn's 1:55.18 is exactly what it should have been and his 18th lengths were not due to the rail, but to his effort and his stamina. It seems unlikely the track would have been faster for him than for her, so let's add a second to his time: 1:56.18, which is still fast enough to win most Preaknesses, to account for the differences between her times.

The rail could very well have prevented any horse gaining, but it does not appear to have magically given Mendelssohn 18 lengths. Setting aside all of the "you're a dummy, real time is fake time, fake time is real time" insults coming my way, the internals provide the least objectionable to Oxam's Razor explanation for the results:

1/4

Mendelsohn 25.09 (Thunder Snow 25.73)
Rayya 25.33 (West Coast 25.88)
Gold Coast 25.37 (Pavel 26.12)
Reride 25.57 (Mubtahij 26.77)

3/4

Mendelssohn 1:11.87 (Thunder Snow 1:13.89)
Rayya 1:12.09 (West Coast 1:13.96)
Reride 1:12.17 (Pavel 1:14.11)
Gold Coast 1:12.72 (Mubtahij 1:14.14)

Mile

Mendelssohn 1:36.31 (Thunder Snow 1:37.21)
Rayya 1:37.85 (West Coast 1:37.39)
Reride 1:39.07 (Pavel 1:37.75; Mubtahij 1:38.26)

All horses were carrying 126lbs (except perhaps Rayya).

There is a logical fallacy that a track must be fast and not taxing in order to result in a merry go round order, but that doesn't happen because of the speed of the track. It happens because of how fast each horse took up position and the clip they were traveling at when they did. If all horses are traveling at the same speed, the intial order will not, cannot, change. But as soon as their clips change, their distance between each other changes. And their clips changing is based on lactic acid threshhold.

There is another fallacy that if records fall at a track the track must be faster in relation to other tracks. None of the times posted came anywhere near American track records. The track was faster than it had been in relation to itself, but 2:01 is not fast, unless you mean Justify in the SA derby fast. If so, then Mendelssohn ran the equivalent of 22.09, 1:09.87, 1:33.31, 1:52.18, which I don't think you mean.

My guess is that the track is more tiring than most American tracks, and that Rayya's 3/4 a second was not a gift from the track, but that she actually ran faster, and began to hit the wall between 7-8F, then ran slower and slower. This is in perfect unison with the results, and means that Mendelssohn's 18 lengths were because he did not begin to hit the wall until 8-9f. If I'm right, Rayya should be in the derby, not the oaks. And Mendelssohn is the fastest 3yo.

Mendelssohn's performance is perhaps better understood in relation to Beholder's performances, then to the other 3yos'. She out ran her pedigree by 4fs, she had the Henessy speed but what appears to be the Leslie's Lady stamina. She could lope along at the same speed as the horses in front of her then pass the between 5-6f as they hit their thresholds one by one, and maintain her speed to the end. She used her Henessy speed to stay close and her Leslie's Lady stamina carried her past everyone as they reached their lactic acid threshold. Mendelssohn didn't accelerate, he maintained. Mendelssohn is out of the Henessy/Leslie's Lady Nick.

Whether he has a shot will be decided to how close to the front he can get, and when the other horses hit their thresholds. If his UAE derby is indicitive he will hit his late in the stretch. There won't be many that can match that.

I'm not saying he'll win, he likely won't for a whole slew of reasons.


FWIW West Coast and Pavel hit their lactic acid threshold exactly where they always do 6-7f. They ran the exact same race they always do, it's just people had decided that West Coast was a world beater. If he was he should have easily passed Gunrunner in the Pegagsus due to the iron law of crosswinds of which he had sat in the cat bird seat for the entire race, while Collected and Gunrunner took the full brunt. Gunrunner's effort in the Pegasus was so much better than even those who know it was oustanding will ever realize because they do not understand crosswinds. I said all of this on Bloodhorse well before the race FWIW, if you'd like to check.

She ran 1.2 seconds faster than her Stakes Record time in the UAE Oaks. The fastest time any filly has ever run over that distance at that track and she knocked over 1.2 seconds off her mark. Keep thinking the track didn't carry those horses.

[Afleet]

...

:lol:

[Afleet]

Well... Mendelssohn IS the fastest 3 yr old on Ragozin and TG so I'm not sure what point you're trying to make as far as that's concerned. The question in my mind doesn't concern his figure but his ability to replicate it. That's a big figure for a spring 3 yr old who popped first time dirt.

The percentages say he bounces but I think that could be somewhat mitigated by lasix and the 6 weeks. He can go back a couple and still win.

Also, it's going to be difficult to compare Meydan times to US because there is no run up.

what Rag did Free Drop get in the Blue Grass? I will be buying them when the full cards come out next week-just curious

[lamboguy]

i never bet on horses that won their last race by more than 5 lengths. if this guy wins, i lose

[Mc990]

what Rag did Free Drop get in the Blue Grass? I will be buying them when the full cards come out next week-just curious

Haven't seen them all yet on Ragozin yet... "1" on TG

[papillon]

I wouldn't go that far. Yes, she outbroke Abel Tasman--a historically slow starter--but Rayya has 4 starts this year and been hustled from the gate each time while the latter hasn't raced in 6 months.

Abel Tasman made up the 3 length deficit on Rayya with relative ease (to be fair, Rayya was kept out in the middle of the track). In the stretch, Abel Tasman was well within herself, with Martin Garcia high over the saddle with his hands virtually still on her neck aside from mild taps on her shoulder with a flick of the wrist. Van Dyke meanwhile was low in the saddle and scruffing energetically to get Rayya to keep up at the wire.


Tiz Wonderful suffered two major injuries, one at 2 and one at 3 despite the limited starts so we definitely have an idea of his inherent soundness. He has made virtually no impact at stud aside from a few sprint fillies and was carted off to South Korea a couple of years ago.

Sigh.

Rayya passed Able Tasman on the gallop out far on the back stretch, she is about half her size, and if that work was any other 3yo Oaks bound filly, I'm thinking you wouldn't be insisting on proving me wrong about its quality, or at least you wouldn't if it wasn't me...since it's me, of course you would.

Clearly, Tiz Wonderful had physical problems, had he not, he may have proved a decent racehorse, or not, we'll never know.

Regarding his only having sired few sprint fillies...whelp, he finally got him a stayer.

Its pretty easy to be in the anti-Mendelssohn camp here. Bravo. Big limb you're one there.

90% of you are anti-Mendelssohn, and in a way exactly like LoneF is anti-Justify. If Mendelsohn loses, I really don't care. But if Justify loses, you guys are going to melt down. You are all so emotionally invested in him.

I'm cedeing the last word to you henceforth, regardless of topic, I know your response.

[papillon]

She ran 1.2 seconds faster than her Stakes Record time in the UAE Oaks. The fastest time any filly has ever run over that distance at that track and she knocked over 1.2 seconds off her mark. Keep thinking the track didn't carry those horses.


Ok, will do.

[Spalding No!]

Rayya passed Able Tasman on the gallop out far on the back stretch,...
This is a joke, right? Abel Tasman was throttled down to a light canter by the time Rayya "passed" her, a full 2 furlongs after completing the actual work.

Again, Abel Tasman was under mild encouragement in the work, Rayya was being set down to keep pace.

she is about half her size,
So now she gets a pass because she's tiny?

and if that work was any other 3yo Oaks bound filly, I'm thinking you wouldn't be insisting on proving me wrong about its quality, or at least you wouldn't if it wasn't me...since it's me, of course you would.
Huh? I just finished the first season of Westworld and still don't have any idea of what you are talking about...

Clearly, Tiz Wonderful had physical problems, had he not, he may have proved a decent racehorse, or not, we'll never know.
But we do know he's not an important sire.

Regarding his only having sired few sprint fillies...whelp, he finally got him a stayer.
If finishing 18 lengths behind Mendelssohn qualifies as staying I guess we'll have to take it...

Its pretty easy to be in the anti-Mendelssohn camp here. Bravo. Big limb you're one there.
Who said I was anti-Mendelssohn? I'm more in the anti-Mendelssohn-is-the-second-coming-as-a-result-of-thrashing-wee-filly-Rayya-on-a-souped-up-surface camp.

90% of you are anti-Mendelssohn, and in a way exactly like LoneF is anti-Justify. If Mendelsohn loses, I really don't care. But if Justify loses, you guys are going to melt down. You are all so emotionally invested in him.
90% of me is anti-Mendelssohn? What are you, my head programmer? What does the other 10% of me think? Certainly not pro-Justify...

I'm cedeing the last word to you henceforth, regardless of topic, I know your response.
While I'm out on a limb, it seems like the bough broke under you.

Rock-a-bye.

[depalma113]

Ok, will do.

Well, your first post started out with bad math, so I figured you could use the help.

[depalma113]

Ok, will do.

Like I said, Rayya was carried by the track in Dubai. Just like the winner was.

[SkunkApe]

Like I said, Rayya was carried by the track in Dubai. Just like the winner was.

Where’d she finish?

I forgot to look - I needed Monomay Girl to win that nailbiter for my P4.

[depalma113]

Where’d she finish?

I forgot to look - I needed Monomay Girl to win that nailbiter for my P4.


13th - 40 lengths back

[SkunkApe]

13th - 40 lengths back

Poor LoneF.

[GMB@BP]

To be fair to the horse, and forgetting the silly opinions by a few, once she blew the break she had little chance given she seems to have one way to run.

And working heads up with Abel Tasman was not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Its an issue for speed horses from Europe, they dont break the same as here in the US.

[papillon]

Like I said, Rayya was carried by the track in Dubai. Just like the winner was.

She blew the break. It's pretty hard to declare what another horse will do tomorrow, based on her blowing the break. It looks to me like she hit the stall hard, but I'm sure Spalding Foot Stamper, will make a point of telling me I am blind and absolutely, positively, not entitled to an opinion different from his.

She isn't a Euro horse. She's trainined by an American in Dubai.

FWIW, minutes before the race Baffert said if she missed the break her race was over and low and behold...

Like I said, I'm not trying to get any of you to support Mendelssohn. I really could care less whether you think he's the crap or cream of the crop. I'm not an evangelist. This thread wasn't about that, it was about trying to have a dialog about those 18 lengths, but that's not possible here. It's like a mean girls slumber party here.

Anywho, I didn't have money on Rayya, I had it on Wonder Gadot. I'd had rather lost by 40 lengths than just shy of one.

I do hope most people will use Rayya's performance today to bail on Mendelssohn. If My Boy Jack can get bet down to 5-1, anything's possible.

Cheers.

[GMB@BP]

well missing the break shouldnt cause you to lose by 40, she sat behind Mendelssohn and ran second. On pure talent she was probably 10th or 11th in that field, maybe. I doubt she is ever a real factor in the Baffert barn.

[sammy the sage]

She also BANGED her friggin head coming out....SUCKS....this race is a total throw-out....and gives us ABSOLUTELY no read on Dubai....:bang::bang::pout::pout::rant::rant:

[depalma113]

She also BANGED her friggin head coming out....SUCKS....this race is a total throw-out....and gives us ABSOLUTELY no read on Dubai....:bang::bang::pout::pout::rant::rant:

She didn't hit the gate coming out. She broke in the air.

[depalma113]

Like I said, I'm not trying to get any of you to support Mendelssohn. I really could care less whether you think he's the crap or cream of the crop. I'm not an evangelist. This thread wasn't about that, it was about trying to have a dialog about those 18 lengths, but that's not possible here. It's like a mean girls slumber party here.

I tried to point out why the UAE Derby was indeed affected by a golden rail and you never wanted to discuss it. You wanted your interpretation to be correct and really didn't want to hear anything to the contrary.

[sammy the sage]

She didn't hit the gate coming out. She broke in the air.

What-ever you say is gospel....fine with me....still....she AND the jock were....well:puke:....so in the grand scheme of things...nah...nevermind...

[GMB@BP]

I would not use this race as anything in regards to Mendelssohn.

Any serious handicapper knows that he beat a trash field by an open margin helped by a golden rail in a fast time.

Hard to quantify a talented horse by a completely inferior horse who chased him.

[rabrown36]

yes the rail was a very good place to be in Dubai. But that does not explain Mendelssohn. The truth is he ran the best prep race out of everyone. He jumped off the screen. No other horse in Dubai who also had the same set up ran as good or fast. The horse is bred to be great, sold for 3million. Shipped over here and already won(on turf) He is also the youngest horse in the race. Not even 3 until May 17. FYI Magnum moon and Promis fulfilled the only other ones that are not three yet.


The thing we should talk about is why these Cali horses are not running great.

Able Tasman - nothing, Hoppertunity - nothing, Rayya - Nothing, Cognitive - nothing. All trained by Baffert.


Midnight Bisou - ran alright, but not what some made her out to be.

Maybe Justify and Bolt will prove me wrong, but I have been saying that these 3-year-olds from Cali are a tad over-rated with inflated numbers.

[GMB@BP]

yes the rail was a very good place to be in Dubai. But that does not explain Mendelssohn. The truth is he ran the best prep race out of everyone. He jumped off the screen. No other horse in Dubai who also had the same set up ran as good or fast. The horse is bred to be great, sold for 3million. Shipped over here and already won(on turf) He is also the youngest horse in the race. Not even 3 until May 17. FYI Magnum moon and Promis fulfilled the only other ones that are not three yet.


The thing we should talk about is why these Cali horses are not running great.

Able Tasman - nothing, Hoppertunity - nothing, Rayya - Nothing, Cognitive - nothing. All trained by Baffert.


Midnight Bisou - ran alright, but not what some made her out to be.

Maybe Justify and Bolt will prove me wrong, but I have been saying that these 3-year-olds from Cali are a tad over-rated with inflated numbers.

I bet against everyone of those California horses but Midnight Bisou who ran very credible with a tough trip against a moderate pace. I also think 9F may be longer than she wants, it was my chief concern.

Abel Tasman had been working very poorly for her standards.

Hoppurtunity has not won a top class race in years. Rayya was an inferior horse as discussed.

Cognitive was just a horrendous bet, I had the 6, did not work out to well for me either.

But a socal grass horse won, guess thats were they are good.

[jay68802]

Hard to quantify a talented horse by a completely inferior horse who chased him.

Well stated.

yes the rail was a very good place to be in Dubai. But that does not explain Mendelssohn. The truth is he ran the best prep race out of everyone. He jumped off the screen.

Yes it does, and if you can put a number to the bias, you can get rich in this game.

[Spalding No!]

yes the rail was a very good place to be in Dubai. But that does not explain Mendelssohn. The truth is he ran the best prep race out of everyone. He jumped off the screen. No other horse in Dubai who also had the same set up ran as good or fast.
Thunder Snow ran a similarly fast race in the World Cup. He hit the 1900m mark at a near identical time to Mendelssohn. He also had the far outside post and had to hustle and engage West Coast to the first turn before coming away with the lead and the rail, whereas Mendelssohn had a relatively easy go of it to establish the lead in his race.

That in and of itself is by no means a knock on Mendelssohn, as Thunder Snow in general is no slouch and arguably is the only horse from the 2017 Kentucky Derby who has displayed Grade or Group 1 talent in subsequent starts.

However, the question mark it raises isn't so much a reflection on the quality and talent of Mendelssohn, but rather his stamina.

Thunder Snow, for all his attributes, is a miler at heart and never carried his speed a full 10 furlongs until the Dubai World Cup. If the play of the track carried him an extra furlong or two, did it do the same for Mendelssohn (who's bloodlines hardly scream 10 furlongs)?

The horse is bred to be great, sold for 3million. Shipped over here and already won(on turf) He is also the youngest horse in the race. Not even 3 until May 17. FYI Magnum moon and Promis fulfilled the only other ones that are not three yet.
Being the youngest horse in the race is probably not a point in his favor.

The thing we should talk about is why these Cali horses are not running great.

Able Tasman - nothing, Hoppertunity - nothing, Rayya - Nothing, Cognitive - nothing. All trained by Baffert.
It seemed that all the main track winners today came from the first flight. None of the Baffert horses--surprisingly--were part of the pace. Rayya (not a solid example of a "Cali" horse anyways) and Cognitive, both of whom flashed speed in prior starts, were hampered by poor starts. Abel Tasman and Hoppertunity tend to settle in the back which was not the winning running style today.

[PaceMasterT]

Thunder Snow, for all his attributes, is a miler at heart and never carried his speed a full 10 furlongs until the Dubai World Cup. If the play of the track carried him an extra furlong or two, did it do the same for Mendelssohn (who's bloodlines hardly scream 10 furlongs)?





4 career races longer than 1 1/8 other than the Kentucky Derby - 3 wins and 1 place and he is a miler at heart?

[Spalding No!]

4 career races longer than 1 1/8 other than the Kentucky Derby - 3 wins and 1 place and he is a miler at heart?
Other than his bias-aided score in the Dubai World Cup, you won't find a start by Thunder Snow beyond a mile that featured anything of Group 1 caliber or that had displayed prior adeptness at a classic distance.

The other 3 races you mentioned were all at Meydan and featured fields of fellow milers (North America, Heavy Metal, Lancaster Bomber) and a motley crew of elder ex-pats from North and South America. He lost one by a pole and was life-and-death to win the other 2.

There was plenty of opportunity to try a middle distance in Europe last summer and he stayed safely ensconced in the mile division.