Who are you leaving out of the WIN spot your most worried about?

[PowerUpPaynter]

For me im leaving Magnum Moon out of the win spot on all my tickets. I just think if a horse is gonna break the Apollo Curse its going to be Justify.

[LoneF]

I am leaving Justify out of the win spot but not worried at all about that.

Bolt I am also leaving out of the win spot and he would probably be my next horse up if I added another horse to the win spot so that’s my answer.

[f2tornado]

I will wait for the draw. I don't plan on playing Bolt or Justify on top at this moment but either could be more dangerous from an inside post while their style is potentially hampered by an auxiliary draw. Audible is one I only played lightly in Pool 4 exacta wagers and one I don't plan on playing too much Derby day. Florida Derby winners have been tough in Kentucky and this guy fits the fractions and Buckpasser angles.

[Robert Fischer]

Audible.


Beautiful horse. Visually impressive.


form rundown:

Debut StatebredMSW 6.5f - Green early, really moving well late.

2nd start StatebredMSW 1M- 4/5 fav. Deep stalking/closing style. Looked the winner for most of the race, gradually circled the field. JV kept busy, a bit too workman-like of an effort for a Derby winner. Looked like a paid workout.

3rd start OC 1M (off turf) (4 horse field) - 1/5 fav. Another paid workout. Even got a horse to open up and set a 'target'. Took Audible until entering the stretch to overtake. That rival did not go on in the stretch, but Audible did look visually impressive in the stretch run.

4th start G2 Holy Bull S. 1 1/16M - Wasn't really a top derby prep. Enticed didn't show up. I don't like Free Drop Billy. Castellano with a great ride on Audible- hard urged out of the gate, then floated others while entering the first turn, sat in 'the pocket' 3rd... A couple cheap horses opened up mid-race, no one else made a middle move(Enticed we mean you), and then Audible inherited the lead entering the stretch with only a harmless Free Drop Billy on his flank. He did look visually impressive in the stretch. :ThmbUp: Have to give him some credit. He fired. He does a nice job of maintaining his speed through the stretch run. As stated, I think his position in this race was better than we'll tend to see.

Derby Prep G1 Florida Derby 9F - Pace collapse. Catholic Boy didn't show up. Audible again was fortunate from the gate to establish position. Squandered that position on the backstretch while moving a bit sluggish, but that only helped him late in the race as any part of the field moving early was punished. Hofburg (My 'key' in the race) mirrored him with a slightly worse, but very similar 2nd. This isn't so much a note of less regarded horse, but of the pace dynamics. Another very nice stretch run from Audible. Watching him run through the stretch looked like a Derby winner.


Workouts - His mediocre cruising speed, and need to be kept busy is very evident in workouts. A typical workout also isn't long enough to show off his stretch running stamina (also not getting dream setups in workouts!). The Vino Rossi work I think revealed some things about Audible. And at the end(1:31) he was temporarily able to make a short move and close the gap when urged, although Vino Rossi held the advantage.
https://www.xbtv.com/video/audible/0_q6drxg68/


Final thoughts - I don't think he can get into a winning position in the Kentucky Derby. If he has an otherwise good trip, he can be rolling late and passing tired rivals. He scares me, but I can't use 'em all on top.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Audible and Good Magic are 2 horse I cant get a good handle on. I do like Audible but im not betting him on top and luckily I got him at 40-1 offshore awhile ago. Good Magic im just not really a fan of but it seems like a lot of people on this board who I respect are actually very big fans of his. I never try to be the smartest guy in the room and always love hearing other's takes so im torn. I must be missing something with Good Magic. Some people REALLY love him in this race.

[LoneF]

Audible and Good Magic are 2 horse I cant get a good handle on. I do like Audible but im not betting him on top and luckily I got him at 40-1 offshore awhile ago. Good Magic im just not really a fan of but it seems like a lot of people on this board who I respect are actually very big fans of his. I never try to be the smartest guy in the room and always love hearing other's takes so im torn. I must be missing something with Good Magic. Some people REALLY love him in this race.

I would not call myself a big fan of Good Magic but I am a fan and if I spread out 4 or 5 horses on top than I will most likely include him.

I think the reason so many people like him is in big part because of Chad Brown. That guy really knows how to get a horse to peak for the big race.

Look at Good Magic’s 2 year old year. So-So maiden race than a really good effort in the Champagne Stakes in his second race leading to the big win in the BC Juvenile in his third race.

This year first race is a so-so effort in the Fountain of Youth and second race is a really good effort in the Bluegrass. Follow the pattern and he is set up for a big race in the Kentucky Derby.

[papillon]

Justify

Blasphemy I know right.

He's either a Hall of Famer, or Materiality.

His 3yo season reminds me of Materiality, but he reminds me of Into Mischief and Secret Circle. If I'm right, the KY derby will ruin him.

The key difference between Materiality/Secret Circle and Into Mischief was that Mandella doesn't care about the derby. He lets the horse be what it is.

Justify did not have to run against a Bodemeister in the SA derby, if Secret Circle hadn't run against him in the AK derby, he would have won it and been a favorite for the KY derby, maybe the favorite.

The real test of speed is other speed.You can argue about Bolt being a very fast horse, but he is not a speed horse.

[jay68802]

Good Magic.

[TheGarMan]

Its a little soon to say, but I'm probably leaving out Mendelssohn.....

Why am I worried?

Because if a Breeders Cup Champion who won his last start by 18 lengths and is trained by one of the best in the world wins the Kentucky Derby, I will wonder how I could have been so freakin' stupid to ignore all the signs.


:bang:

But you cannot bet them all. So for me he is shaping up to be a "tough pass"...

[LoneF]

Its a little soon to say, but I'm probably leaving out Mendelssohn.....

Why am I worried?

Because if a Breeders Cup Champion who won his last start by 18 lengths and is trained by one of the best in the world wins the Kentucky Derby, I will wonder how I could have been so freakin' stupid to ignore all the signs.


:bang:

But you cannot bet them all. So for me he is shaping up to be a "tough pass"...

You can add best jockey in the world to best trainer in the world.

[cj]

You can add best jockey in the world to best trainer in the world.

He may or may not be the best jockey in the world, but he certainly isn't the best dirt jockey in the world. You can say the same thing about the trainer.

[cj]

Justify did not have to run against a Bodemeister in the SA derby, if Secret Circle hadn't run against him in the AK derby, he would have won it and been a favorite for the KY derby, maybe the favorite.



Bodemeister wasn't eligible so he couldn't run against him. Also, even if it were an open race, he's 9, so I'm sure he's lost a few steps.

[Andrick]

I tend to play the Derby quite narrowly, so I'm likely to leave a few of the top choices out of the win spot. Things could certainly change once I get into watching replays, but as of right now Good Magic, Mendelssohn, and perhaps Magnum Moon and Bolt may be some of the horses I won't be relying on in the win spot.

[f2tornado]

Bodemeister wasn't eligible so he couldn't run against him. Also, even if it were an open race, he's 9, so I'm sure he's lost a few steps.

In his defense, he said a Bodemeister, likely referring to the fractions he set the Kentucky Derby. It's probably a moot point since I don't see a Bodemeister type in this field.

[TheGarMan]

You can add best jockey in the world to best trainer in the world.

As CJ pointed out, Ryan Moore may opt to stay closer to home and run the 1000 Guineas on the same day... Time will tell. Some would argue that picking up a US based jock with Derby experience could actually help Mendelsshon.

Either way, I am probably tossing him.

[Robert Fischer]

Bodemeister wasn't eligible so he couldn't run against him. Also, even if it were an open race, he's 9, so I'm sure he's lost a few steps.

Bodemeister would be lucky to finish 3rd against this crop.


Not bad for an old warrior.

[LoneF]

As CJ pointed out, Ryan Moore may opt to stay closer to home and run the 1000 Guineas on the same day... Time will tell. Some would argue that picking up a US based jock with Derby experience could actually help Mendelsshon.

Either way, I am probably tossing him.

I agree with the general premise of what your saying about picking up a US based jockey, but the problem with that is that all the top jockeys already have mounts. I wouldn’t of minded to see Irad Ortiz pick up the mount on him but just read last night he is riding Hofburg. With that being said I have to believe Ryan Moore makes the trip. He made the trip to ride some longshot ( can’t remember the horses name off the top of my head ) in the Bluegrass. I would think with all the different races Ryan Moore has won that he would love to add the Kentucky Derby to the list and this may very well be the best chance he ever gets ....

On a side note .... I noticed Calvin Borel is starting to heat up. He rode a few winners today at Keeneland and I think those may have been his only mounts of the day. I am not saying I want to see him ride Mendelssohn, but considering his past derby magic I would think the connections of a hopeless longshot like Friesen Fire would have absolutely nothing to lose by rolling the dice with Calvin and hoping he can pull some Mine that Bird type stuff out of his hat. What other hope do they have ?

[Afleet]

Audible.


Beautiful horse. Visually impressive.


form rundown:

Debut StatebredMSW 6.5f - Green early, really moving well late.

2nd start StatebredMSW 1M- 4/5 fav. Deep stalking/closing style. Looked the winner for most of the race, gradually circled the field. JV kept busy, a bit too workman-like of an effort for a Derby winner. Looked like a paid workout.

3rd start OC 1M (off turf) (4 horse field) - 1/5 fav. Another paid workout. Even got a horse to open up and set a 'target'. Took Audible until entering the stretch to overtake. That rival did not go on in the stretch, but Audible did look visually impressive in the stretch run.

4th start G2 Holy Bull S. 1 1/16M - Wasn't really a top derby prep. Enticed didn't show up. I don't like Free Drop Billy. Castellano with a great ride on Audible- hard urged out of the gate, then floated others while entering the first turn, sat in 'the pocket' 3rd... A couple cheap horses opened up mid-race, no one else made a middle move(Enticed we mean you), and then Audible inherited the lead entering the stretch with only a harmless Free Drop Billy on his flank. He did look visually impressive in the stretch. :ThmbUp: Have to give him some credit. He fired. He does a nice job of maintaining his speed through the stretch run. As stated, I think his position in this race was better than we'll tend to see.

Derby Prep G1 Florida Derby 9F - Pace collapse. Catholic Boy didn't show up. Audible again was fortunate from the gate to establish position. Squandered that position on the backstretch while moving a bit sluggish, but that only helped him late in the race as any part of the field moving early was punished. Hofburg (My 'key' in the race) mirrored him with a slightly worse, but very similar 2nd. This isn't so much a note of less regarded horse, but of the pace dynamics. Another very nice stretch run from Audible. Watching him run through the stretch looked like a Derby winner.


Workouts - His mediocre cruising speed, and need to be kept busy is very evident in workouts. A typical workout also isn't long enough to show off his stretch running stamina (also not getting dream setups in workouts!). The Vino Rossi work I think revealed some things about Audible. And at the end(1:31) he was temporarily able to make a short move and close the gap when urged, although Vino Rossi held the advantage.
https://www.xbtv.com/video/audible/0_q6drxg68/


Final thoughts - I don't think he can get into a winning position in the Kentucky Derby. If he has an otherwise good trip, he can be rolling late and passing tired rivals. He scares me, but I can't use 'em all on top.

excellent write up!

[Afleet]

Medolssohn and Justify. Full disclosure-I have Mendolssohn in the futures pool 3.

[LoneF]

Medolssohn and Justify. Full disclosure-I have Mendolssohn in the futures pool 3.

So your not using Mendelssohn or Audible. ( I am using both ) and your not using Justify ( I am also not using him ) so just out of curiosity who are using ?

I noticed you mentioned Hofburg as your key to the Florida Derby. I am very high on Hofburg and even more so that Irad Ortiz will be riding him. I will be using him for sure.

Mendelssohn, Audible , Hofburg, Magnum Moon and Good Magic for me on top as of right now. Of course I have to wait for the post position draw to finalize my picks.

[SkunkApe]

Its a little soon to say, but I'm probably leaving out Mendelssohn.....

Why am I worried?

Because if a Breeders Cup Champion who won his last start by 18 lengths and is trained by one of the best in the world wins the Kentucky Derby, I will wonder how I could have been so freakin' stupid to ignore all the signs.


:bang:

But you cannot bet them all. So for me he is shaping up to be a "tough pass"...

My thoughts are similar.

I’m completely confident in just playing Justify on top. I’ll probably throw in a bit of Audible, too, but mostly because he’s my “first love” this year. (Before I came to the light.)

But damn, if that goofy fast-tracking, filly-beating, doesn’t-even-know-when-to-slow-down Mendaalhij actually wins, I may have to reconsider my choice of hobbies.

[Afleet]

So your not using Mendelssohn or Audible. ( I am using both ) and your not using Justify ( I am also not using him ) so just out of curiosity who are using ?

I noticed you mentioned Hofburg as your key to the Florida Derby. I am very high on Hofburg and even more so that Irad Ortiz will be riding him. I will be using him for sure.

Mendelssohn, Audible , Hofburg, Magnum Moon and Good Magic for me on top as of right now. Of course I have to wait for the post position draw to finalize my picks.

there is still the draw to come and the weather factor. I like Mendolssohn but I already have him covered. If he wins I still cash and could cash big if another of the horses I boxed hit the exacta w/him.

Looking at Vino, Bolt, Magnum, Free Drop on top at this time. I will be keying 4 or 5 on top-wanting to play the super, but it gets really pricey w/that many on top

[LoneF]

My thoughts are similar.

I’m completely confident in just playing Justify on top. I’ll probably throw in a bit of Audible, too, but mostly because he’s my “first love” this year. (Before I came to the light.)

But damn, if that goofy fast-tracking, filly-beating, doesn’t-even-know-when-to-slow-down Mendaalhij actually wins, I may have to reconsider my choice of hobbies.

I assume by filly you mean Raaya ... She is better than 13 of the 14 stuffs that Justify has beaten in his illustrious career of 2 paid workouts and a match race against a horse that doesn’t want more than a mile and doesn’t have the early speed to do well in a match race scenario and than there was all those horses Mendelssohn beat in the BC Turf ...

[SkunkApe]

I assume by filly you mean Raaya ... She is better than 13 of the 14 stuffs that Justify has beaten in his illustrious career of 2 paid workouts and a match race against a horse that doesn’t want more than a mile and doesn’t have the early speed to do well in a match race scenario and than there was all those horses Mendelssohn beat in the BC Turf ...

Well, that should do it. Justify will lose for sure, now.

[GMB@BP]

I am leaving Justify out of the win spot but not worried at all about that.

Bolt I am also leaving out of the win spot and he would probably be my next horse up if I added another horse to the win spot so that’s my answer.

You should bet this race very heavy then, I mean this, like one of your biggest plays all year.

You just eliminated a solid 20% probably of the money, if you can eliminate some of the non contenders your at 30%...with that type of advantage I would bet 2-3 times my normal bankroll.

[sammy the sage]

Mendelssohn....if he GETS the Big L...he's THE play...period...if he doesn't...then NOT on top...

Definitely NOT Mag. moon...wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even run...there's been many a surprise scratch over the years...and most of the time it's a Pletcher....just a historical observation....don't know anything this time around...

[clicknow]

Mendelssohn has run just fine on 3 different surfaces w/out lasix.

I see no reason to fix what ain't broke. He obviously hasn't needed any performance enhancing drugs and since some horses have a bad reaction to lasix, this would not be the time I would want to experiment if I were the owner.

[menifee]

Noble Indy. Huge odds. The Pletcher horse that everyone forgets. Got passed in the LA Derby and came back to win. I love when a horse does that. Not fast enough, but could take another step forward. Much better bet than Magnum Moon.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Tier 1-Mendelssohn, Justify, Bolt Doro

Tier 2-Vino Rosso, Audible

Tier 3-Magnum Moon, Good Magic

Haven't thought below this but have some ideas for later.

I think Mendy and Justify will be 4-1 and 5/2. Not betting them to win. Bolt Doro is next in line for a win bet. Here's a horse whose form cycle is practically identical to Good Magic's. Except he's being penalized for facing better competition. He's faced better, ran faster than everybody but Justify and Mendelssohn, is hitting that 3rd start cycle that produced his best race in the Frontrunner, which by my numbers is still the best performance of this crop, and he will be the forgotten horse in my odds sweet spot. But if he is lukewarm in the betting I will look elsewhere. The second I saw race then the chart of the Wood I liked Vino Rosso. But I don't like him so much more than Audible. I could bet either at double digit odds and I have them a cut below the top tier.

I will have includes in horizontals to cover but won't do so in race. My on top horses will be in the win slot and let the chips fall where they may. I could have a big P3-4 A ticket that includes 1 of Justify or Mendelssohn but not both. In race if anybody but my top 3 of Bolt, Vino, Audible win so be it. That's how I am playing this race!

[LoneF]

You should bet this race very heavy then, I mean this, like one of your biggest plays all year.

You just eliminated a solid 20% probably of the money, if you can eliminate some of the non contenders your at 30%...with that type of advantage I would bet 2-3 times my normal bankroll.

I am going to bet a bigger percentage of my bankroll than I normally would on a derby. Partly because I have never been so confident in eliminating a favorite as I am in Justify and also because I have never been so confident in the 5 horses I have it narrowed down to and most likely with the enivitable scratches and bad post position draws that list will be narrowed down even further .

The difficult part is deciding how to bet. I can’t decide if I should reserve my heaviest action for vertical or horizontal plays.

[PoloUK6108]

Noble Indy. Huge odds. The Pletcher horse that everyone forgets. Got passed in the LA Derby and came back to win. I love when a horse does that. Not fast enough, but could take another step forward. Much better bet than Magnum Moon.

Worth noting he added first time blinkers, was passed by those two in the stretch, then battled back. My longshot

[jay68802]

Tier 1-Mendelssohn, Justify, Bolt Doro

Tier 2-Vino Rosso, Audible

Tier 3-Magnum Moon, Good Magic

Tier 1: Mendelssohn, Justify, Audible

Tier 2: Bolt Doro, Magnum Moon

Tier 3: Good Magic, Vino Rosso

I am thinking that this race is going to pay very good. You have at least 8 runners that are going to take money, exacta and tri players should be in heaven.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Tier 1: Mendelssohn, Justify, Audible

Tier 2: Bolt Doro, Magnum Moon

Tier 3: Good Magic, Vino Rosso

I am thinking that this race is going to pay very good. You have at least 8 runners that are going to take money, exacta and tri players should be in heaven.

I agree about the latter. Splitting hairs has been so far an exercise in handicapping torture. Projecting odds helps. I think taking the purist view of "I am going to try and beat the favorite" is a mistake in the Derby these days. That's more of a Tuesday at Will Rogers or any other race and track approach. I have gotten merely saver tickets since teeing off on the 2011 and 2013 editions doing this. Greed made me a little too unrealistic! This year with contention running so deep I think as you do, smartly crafted plays and a little racing luck will be rewarded handsomely. Good luck Jay!

[Spalding No!]

Mendelssohn has run just fine on 3 different surfaces w/out lasix.

I see no reason to fix what ain't broke. He obviously hasn't needed any performance enhancing drugs and since some horses have a bad reaction to lasix, this would not be the time I would want to experiment if I were the owner.
Mendelssohn raced with Lasix in the BC Juvenile Turf.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Mendelssohn raced with Lasix in the BC Juvenile Turf.

You know that's not his only turf race right?

[Spalding No!]

You know that's not his only turf race right?
You know that the poster I was responding to suggested that he has never used Lasix in the past ("He obviously hasn't needed any performance enhancing drugs") right?

[Bennie]

Haven't updated since 2015 Derby but prior no horse won the Derby with an equipment change as a 3 year old. Small sample but blinkers on had been 18 starts 0-1-1 and blinkers off 10 starts 0-0-1. Just something to think about if you need to drop a horse or two from tier 1 to tier 2.

[Spalding No!]

Haven't updated since 2015 Derby but prior no horse won the Derby with an equipment change as a 3 year old. Small sample but blinkers on had been 18 starts 0-1-1 and blinkers off 10 starts 0-0-1. Just something to think about if you need to drop a horse or two from tier 1 to tier 2.
Sea Hero took blinkers off for the 1993 Kentucky Derby and won at nearly 13-1.

[burnsy]

Mendelssohn raced with Lasix in the BC Juvenile Turf.

And if he gets it again..........it will be 2nd time Lasix which is usually a potent punch. Euros on it is another angle and off his last race he could move up again.

[Bennie]

Sea Hero raced as a 2yr. without blinkers and they were added as a 2 year old, they took them off again for the derby but that was not the first time change. I should have been a little clearer as to it being the first time equipment change as a 3 year old.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You know that the poster I was responding to suggested that he has never used Lasix in the past ("He obviously hasn't needed any performance enhancing drugs") right?

Yeah I think the paranoia gives them a push to take it. I got ya.

[LoneF]

Tier 1: Mendelssohn, Justify, Audible

Tier 2: Bolt Doro, Magnum Moon

Tier 3: Good Magic, Vino Rosso

I am thinking that this race is going to pay very good. You have at least 8 runners that are going to take money, exacta and tri players should be in heaven.

Scratch Justify and Vino Rosso off your list and I think your on to something

[clicknow]

Looking at Vino, Bolt, Magnum, Free Drop on top at this time. I will be keying 4 or 5 on top-wanting to play the super, but it gets really pricey w/that many on top

Mine looks similar to yours except I also have Hofburg in there somewhere and probably not using Magnum on top. Free Drop Billy or Lone Sailor or even Noble Indy (if he even makes it into the stretch) look like good longshots to blow up exotics tickets

Until the draw it's all just projection for me. So no real decisions here yet.

[BlueChip@DRF]

From the top spot: Justify

Lightly raced, but its Baffert/Smith.

[GMB@BP]

Lightly raced, but its Baffert/Smith.

a bad combination in big races!

[BlueChip@DRF]

a bad combination in big races!
If it's the post-time favorite, yes.

[clicknow]

Mendelssohn raced with Lasix in the BC Juvenile Turf.

thanks for that info, Spalding.

I guess in rome do like the romans, so he will probably get it this time too.

[clicknow]

I think taking the purist view of "I am going to try and beat the favorite" is a mistake in the Derby these days.

I feel the exact opposite for the KY Derby. I rarely have an opportunity to wager a 20 horse chaos race. I can do conservative wagering any day of the week at any track here and abroad. KY Derby is when I put together some "wild n crazy" exotics because it's fun.....and because it can be way more profitable.

3 year olds doing something they've never done before is a crapshoot, and that's precisely how I play it. :)

[CincyHorseplayer]

I feel the exact opposite for the KY Derby. I rarely have an opportunity to wager a 20 horse chaos race. I can do conservative wagering any day of the week at any track here and abroad. KY Derby is when I put together some "wild n crazy" exotics because it's fun.....and because it can be way more profitable.

3 year olds doing something they've never done before is a crapshoot, and that's precisely how I play it. :)

In principle I agree and I play that way but I've chucked too much profit potential playing the ignore a legitimate favorite on nearly all tickets approach since I banged it up in 11 and 13. My highlights since were blowing upthe Belmont trifecta the same year. I used only savers savers to Nyquist in all bets. I was done last year in P3-4 before the Derby ran. Anyway if we get a Justify win I think the payoffs will be good not great. I play a lot of turf and get those type of prices regularly. So I don't buy into all the typed justifications of how great these last x amount of derbies have been. I'm playing for blood too but will definitely have the favorite on a top denomination A ticket this year so I'm not all or nothing!

[CincyHorseplayer]

In principle I agree and I play that way but I've chucked too much profit potential playing the ignore a legitimate favorite on nearly all tickets approach since I banged it up in 11 and 13. My highlights since were blowing upthe Belmont trifecta the same year. I used only savers savers to Nyquist in all bets. I was done last year in P3-4 before the Derby ran. Anyway if we get a Justify win I think the payoffs will be good not great. I play a lot of turf and get those type of prices regularly. So I don't buy into all the typed justifications of how great these last x amount of derbies have been. I'm playing for blood too but will definitely have the favorite on a top denomination A ticket this year so I'm not all or nothing!

Forgot to add the detail blowing up the trifecta in the 2014 Belmont. That was my last lick in the Triple Crown series!

[clicknow]

but I've chucked too much profit potential playing the ignore a legitimate favorite on nearly all tickets approach


I don't ignore favorites. Keyed Big Brown, American Pharoah, California Chrome, Smarty Jones.

I just don't know what the phrase "legitimate favorite" means for this particular race. Few handicappers, on a regular basis, are capping races with 3 year olds in a 20-horse field who have never run 1-1/4 miles.

Some bettors also seem to be somewhat reactive to trends that are not dependable. (i.e. that chalkier horses winning between 2014 to 2017, or that big longshots in other years will continue or not continue).

Between 1960 and 2017, I think 30 or so horses under 5-1 odds won and 28 horses with odds 5-1 or over won.

Thus, any year can produce "legitimate" horse (often revealed in hindsight) like I'll Have Another paying $32.60 and Animal Kingdom paying $20.90, or Chesapeake's "rabbit", Aristides, beating him like in the very 1st KY Derby.



If the total odds for my ticket don't add up to a profitable endeavor, I still play it "for fun" with very little bankroll, because it's my tradition to place a wager on this race.

[clicknow]

Forgot to add the detail blowing up the trifecta in the 2014 Belmont. That was my last lick in the Triple Crown series!

Maybe you're *due*. :)

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't ignore favorites. Keyed Big Brown, American Pharoah, California Chrome, Smarty Jones.

I just don't know what the phrase "legitimate favorite" means for this particular race. Few handicappers, on a regular basis, are capping races with 3 year olds in a 20-horse field who have never run 1-1/4 miles.

Some bettors also seem to be somewhat reactive to trends that are not dependable. (i.e. that chalkier horses winning between 2014 to 2017, or that big longshots in other years will continue or not continue).

Between 1960 and 2017, I think 30 or so horses under 5-1 odds won and 28 horses with odds 5-1 or over won.

Thus, any year can produce "legitimate" horse (often revealed in hindsight) like I'll Have Another paying $32.60 and Animal Kingdom paying $20.90, or Chesapeake's "rabbit", Aristides, beating him like in the very 1st KY Derby.



If the total odds for my ticket don't add up to a profitable endeavor, I still play it "for fun" with very little bankroll, because it's my tradition to place a wager on this race.

Boy it almost sounds like you are preaching to me! No worries I love the talk at this specific time of year. All of your points I fully get. I don't think you quite get how unrealistically greedy I have gotten! All my P3-4 tickets since 2013 had the derby winner on them to add up to roughly cost of ticket plays. If the favorite won it was lowest denomination on all wagers. That is unrealistic! And except for Nyquist whom I hated his pedigree, I thought very highly of the rest. Always Dreaming at his price should have been a higher denomination on tickets. My value radar is the best it's been since I started playing in 1996. I have had an average mutual of 7/2 for a decade creep up to 5-1. Since I retooled my exotic play my average return has been 7.58-1. It was higher but got chopped down significantly after an extremely chalky March. Long story short I get value seeking. But this race has not seemed to be much more than an average return in my opinion lately. My horizontal wagers will have big tickets with favorite included. In race I am going to attempt to tee off with favorite in 2nd position or worst and with a minimum of 8-1 on top. That is very doable and realistic this year. Both of whom I think will be the top 2 choices have weaknesses. This approach I think works. Favorite wins I get a top denomination P3-4(hope I'm alive anyway!). Favorite loses I get a top P3-4 and in race wager to a potential jackpot. If I'm right! I'm just not going to bet in a bi polar manner this year! Good luck man!

[señorclipclop]

I feel good with Good Magic, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, and Solomini in the win spot. Don't fear anyone else.

[clicknow]

I feel good with Good Magic, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, and Solomini in the win spot. Don't fear anyone else.

I've narrowed down to Bolt, Hofburg, Mendelssohn.....still working on "maybes" Solomini and Bravazo. I also don't fear anyone else for the win spot. So there are 2 horses we both like for the win in common.

[dilanesp]

Its a little soon to say, but I'm probably leaving out Mendelssohn.....

Why am I worried?

Because if a Breeders Cup Champion who won his last start by 18 lengths and is trained by one of the best in the world wins the Kentucky Derby, I will wonder how I could have been so freakin' stupid to ignore all the signs.


:bang:

But you cannot bet them all. So for me he is shaping up to be a "tough pass"...

This is the correct answer.