First of many questions from a newbie.

[Jaecubed]

Hello all!

New to the forum but hoping to become a part of the community. I've been browsing this forum for the past week trying to pick up as many things as possible. Some stuff makes sense to me while some stuff is just :confused: over my head. So my approach is going to be to start out as simple as possible and advance from there. This video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1wkHgGGijM&t=7s to me seems to be a very basic way to start learning how to handicap. I'm hoping to advance but this is going to be my starting point.

Being from Saratoga I've decided to follow/play NYRA (Aqueduct/Belmont/Saratoga). My thought is that I want to become familiar with the horses, jockey's and trainers. It seems to me that it would help with handicapping once you become familiar with all the names. Again I want to keep it simple so I feel sticking to one track is going to do just that.

I'm a firm believer that you learn from doing so Sunday I played the entire card from Aqueduct using my NYRA Bets account. I understand I shouldn't be betting on every race and that I should be picking my spots. But at this point I have zero idea where my spots would be. I played the entire card to see what I would learn. What I learned was that I have a sh*t ton of questions. lol

I can def. see where my personality might dictate my betting style/strategy (which at this point is clueless). What I learned just from 1 day is that I'm not comfortable with just picking 1 horse to win. Maybe that will change once I have a clue as to what I'm doing. What I seemed to enjoy was playing an exacta partial wheel. I kept my bets between $6-$9 per race as that is all I'm willing to lose while learning. For the day I bet $64.00 and won $76.60. I lived to play for another day. :)

I realize this is becoming a TLDR post so I need to ask my questions.

1. How much consideration do you put on the jockey when picking a horse? I honestly can say I didn't look at the trainers at all but I did check the jockeys every time.

2. I've read that I should be keeping records... what exactly should I be keeping a record of? Looking at my NYRA Bets account, it keeps track of my ROI as well as all my bets. Should I be keeping records of the actual horses?

I'm only going to ask 2 questions at this time in hopes that I might get a few answers. I know if I list all of them at once I won't get anywhere. LOL Just a FYI my main goal is to learn how to pick horses and have fun with the sport. I have no delusions of winning a ton of money... I just want to have an educated bet and have fun. Thanks in advance for any kind of advice or input.

[Tom]

Welcome to the Jungle! ;)

As far as jockey, I prefer to pick the horses first, then use the jockey factor seperate them. I am hesitant to throw out a horse based on jockey, alone.

One thing I cautin is trying to figure out why a jockey shows up on one horse over another. I used to think the jock would pick the horse he thought was more likely to win, but that is probably not the case all the time.

I look at jockey stats from Equibase or Trackmaster a lot.
Just because a rider is 25% overall, he might be 10% on turf, or 5% in mud. I like to see positive jockey switches today. A ride who's win % is significantly higher than the trainer's might be a clue that the jock likes the horse and took the mount. 4% trainers don't get to put top jocks on every day.

A switch to a rider who has won with the horse in the past is a good sign.

Jockey only ride the horse. the best they can do is not screw up the the race.

Keep an eye on jockeys in specific situations over their overall ratings.


Records - track each bet you make, what type, what kind of race, what surface.....you want to be able to know how you do with dirt sprints, with turf routes, with maiden claimers, etc.

Are you winning with place and show bets and losing on the win end? Are you winning exactas but losing pic4's?

Track a lot at first, you can alway ween stuff out as your knowledge of yourself grows.

One think I did a lot back in the day was write down the reason I made the bet. Then review it win or lose. I found I was betting a lot of races I should not have bet in the first place. That turned my game around.

Good luck, and keep firing.

[Dave Schwartz]

Jaecubed,

Welcome. Interesting moniker.

You will get lots of good answers here from lots of people. I will take a shot. These would be my opinions.

1. How much consideration do you put on the jockey when picking a horse? I honestly can say I didn't look at the trainers at all but I did check the jockeys every time.

"Jockey" is a relatively minor factor in the scheme of my handicapping. Sure, they win a lot of races, but so do other factors such as speed rating in last race, best-of-last-2 speed ratings, etc.

Meaningful "trainer" stats have much greater value.


2. I've read that I should be keeping records... what exactly should I be keeping a record of? Looking at my NYRA Bets account, it keeps track of my ROI as well as all my bets. Should I be keeping records of the actual horses?

Keeping records is likely to be the wisest decision you ever make.

Do not bother keeping individual horse data. Instead, work on "handicapping the handicapper." That is, track what you are good at and not so good at.

The goal should not be to say, "Gee, I am not doing well in turf races so I won't play them."

Instead, think in terms of "I am not beating turf races. What am I doing wrong?"


Good fortune to you!


Regards,
Dave Schwartz
PS: Had to Google to figure out what your name meant. LOL

[thaskalos]

IMO...you shouldn't make "marking up the racing form" your starting point....and don't handicap in "real time", as the guy in the video is doing. "Real time" handicapping, and "marking up the form", is for players who have already formulated some sort of game-plan in this game...and you haven't reached that point yet in your development as a player. Learn the fundamentals of this game...and then see how the different handicapping factors interact as the handicapping process starts, and then follows through. I also think that you aren't doing yourself any favors by betting real money at this early stage of your horseplayer education...even though the money that you are betting may appear trivial to you. Betting real money at this early stage might cause you to instinctively focus on your own betting combinations...causing you to miss important things that might happen to the horses that you have neglected in your betting. At this early stage of your development, I think you should adopt the mentality of the laboratory physicist...who conducts his experiments dispassionately...without any "bias" towards any findings that he may witness. There will be plenty of time for "real betting" once you get a little better acquainted with this game.

You ask about paying attention to jockeys...and keeping records. These two factors do not belong among the "fundamentals of the game" that a beginner should concern himself with at the start of this horseplaying indoctrination. Invest a little time and read a decent handicapping book...and leave the jockeys and the record-keeping for later on, when the fundamentals of the game have become ingrained in your mind. Here's a book that you might consider starting with...and you can pick it up in near-new condition from Amazon.com, for only a couple of bucks plus shipping:

https://www.amazon.com/Betting-Thoroughbreds-Professionals-Horseplayer-Revised/dp/0525939512/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1523930409&sr=1-3&keywords=steve+davidowitz&dpID=51JYbYrDUUL&preST=_SX218_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_&dpSrc=srch

Read the book, formulate a simple game-plan as a start, handicap the races and compare your opinion to the results...and allow your experiences to guide you down the path to competence in this game. And, above all...be PATIENT. There will be much well-meant advice directed towards you, here and elsewhere...but the advice will likely prove contradictory...and it will only confuse you further. In this game...you -- like all of us -- will have to be a light unto yourself.

[Afleet]

now that you are hot, I would start doubling and tripling the amount bet each race

[Andy Asaro]

When you start the most important thing is to look at the PP's after the races are over so you can note what the winning characteristics of the first three finishers.

Always read the running lines from the bottom up beginning with the workouts since raced. Then read the running lines and let them tell you a story about the horse till you get to the last race. I'd also tell you to bet $2 WPS and a three horse exacta box for a dollar. As you learn you'll begin adjusting your wagers as you go. Stick with WPS and exactas till you learn to read the form and get a feel for it.

GL

[AstrosFan]

Jockey and or Trainer at 5% or less is a major red flag for me. Too much greed with jock agents that want a winning mount, so why is a poor jock riding a horse that "looks" good in the form? A bad trainer most of the time doesn't know what to do with their horses and can't afford the good stock.

Horses that have 5 starts at the dist. or track and haven't hit the board (as in 1st 2nd 3rd) is another red flag

I would disagree with the "marking up the form" comment to a degree. I love using different highlighters. You can have your own color scheme to what you need to see, from best to worse. Bible markers work best on the DRF newsprint, but I print everything out at home so a standard highlighter works well.

That's another thing, don't buy the actual form. Get your stuff online and days in advance.

The biggest first step in handicapping is to see who is the fastest horse in the race based on speed figures, then work your way down. Who has the best fig's ? I do not know, but what I do know is that the slowest horses aren't going to win the majority of the time. Other handicapping factors are back class, pace of the race, even post positions come into play at certain venues.

I make a killing playing Pick N wagers, which means the Double - Pick 3s & 4s BUT...before I come off sounding cocky, if I like 4 horses in each leg, based on the fact I have the horses who are the contenders vs the pretenders, then I am not afraid to spend the $64 on a $1 pick 3. Money makes money in this game! You can be a great handicapper, but the true results come from betting b/c if you F it up, handicapping means nothing if you aren't winning with real money.

Also, unless you like the feel of the real track experience, I would say bet at home. Most of my biggest hits have come in my own environment, away from the rif raf patrons, especially track management that can't care less if a tote machine is down or a channel isn't changed.

[Fred Mertz]

Most of my biggest hits have come in my own environment, away from the rif raf patrons...

You talking about me?

[Track Phantom]

Glad to see Thask directed you towards Steve Davidowtiz's book. I think he has written the best books for newer players to learn handicapping fundamentals. Betting Thoroughbreds is the right book, in my opinion.

I would absolutely separate wagering from handicapping. The way I started is really focusing on the handicapping portion, and that passion stays with me to this day. Creative and sharp wagering is a skill all by itself but different. Think driving from the tee-box vs. putting on the green.

There are literally thousands of unique data points related to a race (or field of horses). Some matter, some don't. The skill is getting to a point where you know which handicapping factors are more relevant for a given race than others. For example, a two-year old race with many first timers will require pedigree and trainer pattern prowess. A $10,000 claimer going a route on the turf might require pace focus, class asssement and video replay review.

But basically learn how to read the (past performance) lines. After a time, you'll read between the lines. In other words, you'll learn how to identify the best horse on paper and then learn how to beat the best horse on paper.

Wish you the best. There are some really sharp players on this board and most will gladly help where they can...me included.

[dlivery]

Some what Important

Through understanding of the Conditions of the race.

[Denny]

Don't buy what they want to sell you.

It's how they make money off your money.

Use FREE information, it's out there.

For example:

If you want to try Harness Racing is go to ustrotting.com and drf.com/harness and look for free P4 and P5 pp's for select tracks every day. Figs are good.

If you don't care about speed figures - Woodbine Mohawk gives you free PP's every day they run.

All races are on dirt in harness and almost all are at a mile. Horses race weekly, not monthly, so their current form is more predictable.

More logical to me than inconsistent thoroughbreds.

Watch as many races as you can and learn about trouble and trips.

It's a great foundation and can be applied to the runners, if that's the way you choose to go later.

Just my opinion.

Good luck.

Denny

[biggestal99]

My question is are you a wet behind the ears 18 year old as I was when I entered the track for the first time March 1, 1975 or are you a bit older and the racing bug hit you a little later.

When I was 18 I didn’t have a clue what was going on and nobody to teach me.
I lost my part time check on a weekly basis. No beginners luck for yours truly.

Allan

[acorn54]

the single best piece of advice i can impart onto you is this; always keep the perspective that parimutuel wagering is a competition amongst horsebettors, if you follow the crowd you will lose.

[headhawg]

First of all, welcome. Second -- you have only been lurking for a week. The most important thing about PA is to figure out which members have something valuable to say and those who are simply full of crap and try to dazzle you with their "brilliance". After you sift through the turds you will find that there is a lot of very good information here, and a good number of members who are willing to help.

If you feel that you're clueless (and btw, that feeling doesn't go away when you have years in the game and are O'fer your last 25) start with what thaskalos posted. Ask your questions, but walk before you run.

[biggestal99]

Don't buy what they want to sell you.

It's how they make money off your money.

Use FREE information, it's out there.

For example:

If you want to try Harness Racing is go to ustrotting.com and drf.com/harness and look for free P4 and P5 pp's for select tracks every day. Figs are good.

If you don't care about speed figures - Woodbine Mohawk gives you free PP's every day they run.

All races are on dirt in harness and almost all are at a mile. Horses race weekly, not monthly, so their current form is more predictable.

More logical to me than inconsistent thoroughbreds.

Watch as many races as you can and learn about trouble and trips.

It's a great foundation and can be applied to the runners, if that's the way you choose to go later.

Just my opinion.

Good luck.

Denny

I get the form daily electronically. But sometimes there are races that the form doesnt have and I dont want to buy a whole card. I just go to whobet and see which races they have for free. Saved me many a buck.

Allan

[JohnGalt1]

Always have your handicapping done before you go to the track.

That way you will have a plan of attack on how to bet each race and know ahead of time the races to pass.

Start with a small bankroll.

Even if it's a hobby for you, treat every wagering decision seriously. If you wouldn't bet $200 on a horse, then you shouldn't bet $2.00 on that horse.

You'll read a lot of books, articles and opinions, here and elsewhere that may seem logical, or illogical.

Some advice contradicts with other advice. Always use this factor/never use this factor. And there are a lot of factors for you to determine what's important to you, because it's your money.

When you can determine what advice works for you, you will be on your way.

There at a lot of crappy systems out there. Avoid them.

[Baron Star Gregg]

There's some good advice here so far. Building a handicapping library is essential. A good book will pay for itself many times over. Unfortunately there are a lot of bad books out there but the good ones will pay for them too. Let me add that watching replays, both pan and head on, will help you advance your knowledge quickly. Many "race-book jockeys" blame the pinhead for screwing up the ride and move on to the next bet without ever watching the replay. Playing a single track gives you the ability to watch the replays to see why the race ran as you expected it to or not. You'll also get to know what to expect from any particular jock. The head on replay is a great way to see troubled trips that don't show up in the comments or that are noted by many players.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Welcome,

You need to formulate a few ironclad rules at the onset that you never break

(1) Never chase your losses
(2) Always look for value in your wagers
(3) Never switch and change your decisions-you need to wager only with confidence
(4) Fund an operating bankroll and never use money earmarked for living expenses for your betting
(5) Make handicapping and the game an enjoyable experience by constantly learning and acquiring knowledge-but remember this is an ever changing game.

I can go on and on with this list but players much more astute than myself can add more to this list.

Good luck

[Track Phantom]

This is really not for a newer player but thought I'd articulate how I approach a race.

For longer priced horses I try to find excuses. For shorter priced horses I try to find flaws.

I'll give you an example. Last year at Canterbury, there was a maiden claimer for Mn-breds. In the race was a Mac Robertson (leading trainer) first timer with fast works and favored. A little review using DRF Formulator would help you understand that Robertson is not good in debut statebred maiden claimers. You have vulnerability in the favorite.

The 2nd favorite had run a bunch of times at this level and beat most of these (2nd's and 3rd's). However, the horse that beat this 2nd favorite last time out had run 10th beaten 15 lengths in a higher maiden claimer. It just so happened that the horse who finished 6th in that race was in this field and 25-1.

I dug a bit deeper on that runner and realized he had a couple of troubled trips and possibly bled 3 starts earlier (got L1 in the next start). His form was darkened due to some of these "excuses". Finally, he had shown speed in the past and the race wasn't really loaded with speed. He won the race by daylight.

It's not that the horse jumped out on paper. 25-1 shots rarely due. But the combination of vulnerability in lower priced horses and reasonable excuses and hidden form in this longshot presented an edge for the player.

[Jaecubed]

First let me say this has gotten way more attention than I ever thought it would. I'd like to thank everyone for taking time to add your thoughts/advice. I really appreciate it and I believe I only got (1) wise @ss remark about being hot and putting the hammer down on my next bets. lol



PS: Had to Google to figure out what your name meant. LOL

Name stems from my old days on the Full Tilt Poker Forum, pre Black Friday... :rip: I use to be big into poker and the forum before it got shut down. Still like poker but really isn't the same without the comrodery of others. Hoping this forum might be sim.



Read the book, formulate a simple game-plan as a start, handicap the races and compare your opinion to the results...and allow your experiences to guide you down the path to competence in this game. And, above all...be PATIENT. There will be much well-meant advice directed towards you, here and elsewhere...but the advice will likely prove contradictory...and it will only confuse you further. In this game...you -- like all of us -- will have to be a light unto yourself.

Great advice thru-out but loved the last part... Thanks for the heads up on the book and I hope to be reading it by this weekend.



Also, unless you like the feel of the real track experience, I would say bet at home. Most of my biggest hits have come in my own environment, away from the rif raf patrons, especially track management that can't care less if a tote machine is down or a channel isn't changed.

I will hit Saratoga a few times this year but I'm def. a homebody and I liked watching it on my computer. I'll get my fill this summer and maybe by then I might pick a horse for other reasons than I like his/her name. LOL



I would absolutely separate wagering from handicapping. The way I started is really focusing on the handicapping portion, and that passion stays with me to this day. Creative and sharp wagering is a skill all by itself but different. Think driving from the tee-box vs. putting on the green.

Great analogy here and I actually watch a video on this today. Never occurred to me that they are two completely different things... and neither of them is easy to figure out so far.

My question is are you a wet behind the ears 18 year old as I was when I entered the track for the first time March 1, 1975 or are you a bit older and the racing bug hit you a little later.

I'm def. not wet behind the ears. Living in Saratoga I've grown up with basic knowledge of horse racing just never learned how to actually play the game. I actually use to be a bell hop in the late 80's ealry 90's for a place called the Rip Van Dam Hotel. It was a seasonal hotel and in August the place was filled with people who came to Saratoga to play the horses. I use to talk horses with them all the time... kind of miss those days. Anyways I'm now interested in the sport because I see it as a puzzle or a challenge. I like that you can take everything into account and try to predict a winner. I love that challenge... kind of why I like poker as well. Money adds some excitement to it but the big thrill is when you get it right... at least for me.

First of all, welcome. Second -- you have only been lurking for a week. The most important thing about PA is to figure out which members have something valuable to say and those who are simply full of crap and try to dazzle you with their "brilliance". After you sift through the turds you will find that there is a lot of very good information here, and a good number of members who are willing to help.

If you feel that you're clueless (and btw, that feeling doesn't go away when you have years in the game and are O'fer your last 25) start with what thaskalos posted. Ask your questions, but walk before you run.

I'm well aware of how these kind of forums work, the poker forums are very sim. but thank you for the heads up. Please tell me there is some kind of silver lining at the end of the rainbow when it comes to being clueless. LOL

Always have your handicapping done before you go to the track.

Again I watched a video today that said the same exact thing.

Let me add that watching replays, both pan and head on, will help you advance your knowledge quickly. Many "race-book jockeys" blame the pinhead for screwing up the ride and move on to the next bet without ever watching the replay. Playing a single track gives you the ability to watch the replays to see why the race ran as you expected it to or not. You'll also get to know what to expect from any particular jock. The head on replay is a great way to see troubled trips that don't show up in the comments or that are noted by many players.

This was actually going to be one of my other questions. Was wondering how people use these to help them handicap. I have a feeling it will become clear to me at some point. I'm thinking I need to read the book that thaskalos recommended before I worrying about this now. I do see this being something I want to use tho.

Welcome,

You need to formulate a few ironclad rules at the onset that you never break

(1) Never chase your losses
(2) Always look for value in your wagers
(3) Never switch and change your decisions-you need to wager only with confidence
(4) Fund an operating bankroll and never use money earmarked for living expenses for your betting
(5) Make handicapping and the game an enjoyable experience by constantly learning and acquiring knowledge-but remember this is an ever changing game.

I can go on and on with this list but players much more astute than myself can add more to this list.

Good luck

Great list! #2 & #3 where in a video I watched... I sound like a broken record with this "watched a video sh*t." LOL

[FakeNameChanged]

Welcome to Thunderdome. If possible, try to find a real-life mentor if you're new to racing. It's fun and educational to actually get out to the track and watch a few races and how your picks run in the actual race. Although you can watch replays online, it's fun to watch a race through binoculars, as videos stay on leaders for the most part. By watching a race live you'll pick up things that won't get published in the results charts.

[headhawg]

I'm well aware of how these kind of forums work, the poker forums are very sim. but thank you for the heads up. Please tell me there is some kind of silver lining at the end of the rainbow when it comes to being clueless. LOLYou have to make your own silver lining i.e., your own long-term goal. From your posts you seem to have a solid foundation and realistic expectations. This game is effing hard to beat -- there are no shortcuts. And the long road may still be the wrong road. There have been a lot of good suggestions in this thread so far but many of them I feel are of the "do them later" variety. I like the idea of finding a mentor, but that could go sideways and you could learn all the things not to do. Well, maybe that's not a bad result either as long as you keep an open mind going forward.

You should definitely read good handicapping books in order to learn terminology and fundamental concepts. I know that there are some threads about books for noobs. Go to the Library section or use the search feature as sometimes those discussions are in other sections of the board. Much like picking the winning Derby horse, there will be a lot of opinions about which books are best. Pick a couple that sound interesting to you.

[Immortal6]

I've only been seriously handicapping and following racing for about a year and a half. Before that I'd kind of grown up with horses, going to the track with my dad and his friends, etc. but hadn't taken it seriously. I would look at a form and pick a horse with the highest speed figure and the best trainer/jock percentages.

In the year and a half since I've been on this board I have learned so much. Like others have said, delve into literature and figure out whose opinions are worth something on here. But above all, practice... a lot. Here is some advice from a fellow newbie.

-Try not to follow others bets and selections blindly. I'm still guilty of doing this from time to time, but have found much more often than not that this is a poor practice. At least if you lose a bet you'll have formed your own opinion of the race.

-As another member said, try to handicap races before you go to the track. Or if you're at home, I usually shoot for having the race handicapped before the previous one is ran.

-If you handicap the races before heading to the track be aware of changes in track bias and don't be afraid to go back and make changes to your selections based on that bias... Was there a closer you liked in the 7th race but front runners have been dominating that day? Take the opportunity to go back and look at the pps for horses with some speed. I've lost too much money being too stubborn to re-handicap a race when I think there may be some bias.

-Another poster mentioned: Don't chase your losses. I will add, don't chase your wins either. it sounds like you have a system of how much to wager on each race. Try to stick to it. Just because you're on a hot streak doesn't mean you should start placing $20 win bets when you normally place $5 bets.

[spiketoo]

The only thing to remember about jocks is that a good jock can't make a bad horse win, but a suspect jock can make a good horse lose.

Mazol tov!

[Pensacola Pete]

The only attention I pay to jockeys is to possibly gauge trainer intent. Otherwise, they aren't relevant to me. Others may have a different view.

[jay68802]

When I saw this tread I had a idea of what would happen, and that was you were going to get a lot of different opinions. You did. None of them are wrong. You got some solid handicappers here, it is a good forum.

I try to download the form as early as possible, the reason I do that is that I do not want a ML. Start with the conditions, and go through the race quickly to get a general feel for the race. Then go back through it one horse at a time and try to get a line on each horse.

As far as jockeys go, good jockeys get the better horses and ride for the better trainers, in general. When a good jockey gets on what looks like a below average horse for a small trainer, pay attention.

Good luck.

[biggestal99]

I'm def. not wet behind the ears. Living in Saratoga I've grown up with basic knowledge of horse racing just never learned how to actually play the game. I actually use to be a bell hop in the late 80's ealry 90's for a place called the Rip Van Dam Hotel. It was a seasonal hotel and in August the place was filled with people who came to Saratoga to play the horses. I use to talk horses with them all the time... kind of miss those days. Anyways I'm now interested in the sport because I see it as a puzzle or a challenge. I like that you can take everything into account and try to predict a winner. I love that challenge... kind of why I like poker as well. Money adds some excitement to it but the big thrill is when you get it right... at least for me.




well making money at horse racing is one hell of a challenge. Notice I did not say picking winners. just about every handicapper can pick a winner
I for one concentrate on one thing and one thing only, making money. However I can. wherever I can. and thats my challenge how do I outsmart other people and take their cash playing the ponies. Very difficult but very rewarding. I love horseracing. I love the human element of it. the owners, the trainers, the jocks, the mistakes they make and the successes they have.

Allan

[Jaecubed]

The only attention I pay to jockeys is to possibly gauge trainer intent. Otherwise, they aren't relevant to me. Others may have a different view.

I've heard this a lot the past few days about trainers intent... could someone elaborate on this? I'll do some research on it as well but I thought I would ask here as well.

As far as jockeys go, good jockeys get the better horses and ride for the better trainers, in general. When a good jockey gets on what looks like a below average horse for a small trainer, pay attention. Good luck.

Does this mean this is a horse I should consider? I'm assuming the jokey knows something the rest of us don't? Just want to clarify the advise on this one.




-Try not to follow others bets and selections blindly. I'm still guilty of doing this from time to time, but have found much more often than not that this is a poor practice. At least if you lose a bet you'll have formed your own opinion of the race.

I think I'm actually going to start a new thread on this as I have a question about "track experts" and their thoughts/picks.

[jay68802]

Does this mean this is a horse I should consider? I'm assuming the jokey knows something the rest of us don't? Just want to clarify the advise on this one.

They might know something, it might be the trainer thinks the last couple of jockeys have not broke the horse well from the gate. You have to consider that the agent might have got the jockey an a better horse the trainer has and the trainer said he has to ride this one also. Sort of a guessing game, but you should always ask yourself Why? If you find a reason, then go with it.

At Fonner Park, for a long time the leading jockey was Perry Compton, who was very good out of the gate. Caught him more that a few times at good odds, just because he suddenly showed up on a bad horse, who had decent gate speed.