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PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2018, 07:04 PM
Is it just me or does anyone else feel he's most likely to end up like McKraken or Carpe Diem... etc

f2tornado
04-16-2018, 07:10 PM
Is it just me or does anyone else feel he's most likely to end up like McKraken or Carpe Diem... etc

I think Classic Empire would be a better potential conparison.

PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2018, 07:30 PM
i am probably putting him in the winners circle saying this but I think there is a 0.0% chance he can win this race.

f2tornado
04-16-2018, 07:57 PM
i am probably putting him in the winners circle saying this but I think there is a 0.0% chance he can win this race.

He's a Raise A Native, Buckpasser-x, and has no trouble running wide so his chances are above zero. If this horse was trained by anyone but Chad Brown I would not be as supportive given his Brisnet LP figure and raw 3/8th time in the Bluegrass were just shy of best best contender values. Chad Brown simply knows how to crank a horse for a big run. I think he will be well positioned at the 3/4 pole to make his move. If he can put himself several lengths ahead of the likes of Audible at the mile pole then he may have just enough in the tank to pull it off.

señorclipclop
04-16-2018, 08:00 PM
He's a Raise A Native, Buckpasser-x, and has no trouble running wide so his chances are above zero. If this horse was trained by anyone but Chad Brown I would not be as supportive given his Brisnet LP figure and raw 3/8th time in the Bluegrass were just shy of best best contender values. Chad Brown simply knows how to crank a horse for a big run. I think he will be well positioned at the 3/4 pole to make his move. If he can put himself several lengths ahead of the likes of Audible at the mile pole then he may have just enough in the tank to pull it off.

Agreed. He's my #1.

PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2018, 08:09 PM
He's a Raise A Native, Buckpasser-x, and has no trouble running wide so his chances are above zero. If this horse was trained by anyone but Chad Brown I would not be as supportive given his Brisnet LP figure and raw 3/8th time in the Bluegrass were just shy of best best contender values. Chad Brown simply knows how to crank a horse for a big run. I think he will be well positioned at the 3/4 pole to make his move. If he can put himself several lengths ahead of the likes of Audible at the mile pole then he may have just enough in the tank to pull it off.

thats true but hes gonna have to take a big step forward from that 95 beyer... Prob gonna take a 104 or 105 to win this race... very strong crop

f2tornado
04-16-2018, 08:48 PM
thats true but hes gonna have to take a big step forward from that 95 beyer... Prob gonna take a 104 or 105 to win this race... very strong crop

No disagreement there... although I largely gave up looking at BSFs for the Derby long ago. The best last out BSF rarely wins the race. Chrome and Big Brown are the only ones that come to mind. That would be two out the last 15 renewals. You would have received $13 back on your $30 worth of $2 win bets. Enjoy that -56% ROI. Your best last out Brisnet figure is better at 5-29 but that still nets you -15%. I expect GM to run back to his Breeders Cup figure. I'm just not convinced it's enough. I like Vino Rosso a little more at the moment but I have both horses covered sufficiently in the future wager pools.

PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2018, 08:52 PM
No disagreement there... although I largely gave up looking at BSFs for the Derby long ago. The best last out BSF rarely wins the race. Chrome and Big Brown are the only ones that come to mind. That would be two out the last 15 renewals. You would have received $13 back on your $30 worth of $2 win bets. Enjoy that -56% ROI. Your best last out Brisnet figure is better at 5-29 but that still nets you -15%. I expect GM to run back to his Breeders Cup figure. I'm just not convinced it's enough. I like Vino Rosso a little more at the moment but I have both horses covered sufficiently in the future wager pools.

true but over the past 10 years only mine that bird improved by 10 points from his final prep to derby winning fig. i think its asking a lot. not so much concerned about who ran the best last out fig but how much room for improvement is there.

GMB@BP
04-16-2018, 09:06 PM
Is it just me or does anyone else feel he's most likely to end up like McKraken or Carpe Diem... etc

I just handicapped the race using Timeform PP's and I think he will be my main play or close to it. I feel like there is still a forward move in there and his Bluegrass is better than it appears. He middle moved while wide onto a very legit pace. A lessor horse would have cracked. Brown can get them ready for the big days and he may get overlooked at 12/1 or so. I will build most my tickets around him and Bolt.

Plush I cashed good on him in the BC so I got that sentimental thing as well.

CincyHorseplayer
04-16-2018, 09:14 PM
I thought his BCJ Beyer was inflated. I didn't think much of that performance even though I respect him for beating some I liked better(on my route rating he got a 199. Bolt Doro got a 218 in the Frontrunner by comparison). And the 2 performances this year I thought were mediocre. Flameaway I had respect for but he's been getting slower in each prep and GM struggled to get by him after he dueled the whole way. If this were on turf I'd have more fear of Chad Brown but not here. This guy is 2nd tier in my book.

Secondbest
04-16-2018, 09:16 PM
I just handicapped the race using Timeform PP's and I think he will be my main play or close to it. I feel like there is still a forward move in there and his Bluegrass is better than it appears. He middle moved while wide onto a very legit pace. A lessor horse would have cracked. Brown can get them ready for the big days and he may get overlooked at 12/1 or so. I will build most my tickets around him and Bolt.

Plush I cashed good on him in the BC so I got that sentimental thing as well.

i doubt he'll be 12-1.

f2tornado
04-16-2018, 09:25 PM
true but over the past 10 years only mine that bird improved by 10 points from his final prep to derby winning fig. i think its asking a lot. not so much concerned about who ran the best last out fig but how much room for improvement is there.

I'll Have Another had an even lesser figure than GM. He went from a 5th best last out 94 BSF to roses. Barbaro was 13 points behind Sinister Minister. Giacomo was 25 points behind Bellamy Road. Beyer absolutely blows chunks when it comes to rating 9F preps. I wouldn't be shocked if just using the fastest raw time has a higher Derby impact value than highest BSF.

GMB@BP
04-16-2018, 09:32 PM
i doubt he'll be 12-1.

There are a lot of good horse this year. If he is lower than horses like Justify and Mendelssohn are higher than we are suspecting.

Justify 3/1
Magnum Moon 5/1
Mendelssohn 6/1
Audible 8/1
Bolt DOro 8/1
Good Magic 12/1
Vino Rosso 12/1

I just clicked off a lot of points in that tote board, and there are still 13 others

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2018, 09:34 PM
i doubt he'll be 12-1.

Wouldn't surprise me.

Justify is gonna take a lot of money, as will Audible, Mendelssohn, Magnum, and Bolt. At best, he'll be 5th favorite and upwards to 7th choice come post time.

Gotta a feeling Justify goes off at 5/2. It is Baffert. It is Mike Smith. He won the Santa Anita Derby handily by a widening margin and has yet to really be tested as an undefeated horse. His figures are getting better as the distances increase, and while you can point to a number of questions with 'curses' and distance, there isn't a single horse in the field that has answered the 10 furlong bell till it rings the first Saturday in May.

I think Audible will end up as 2nd favorite. His Holy Bull and Florida Derby were awfully impressive.

Justify, Audible, Magnum Moon, and Mendelssohn will all take more money than Good Magic. And likely Bolt will as well. That leaves Vino Rosso, Noble Indy, Solomini, and My Boy Jack as possible contenders for 6th, 7th, 8th favorites.

Thus, I can certainly see 12/1 on GM. Sounds crazy, until you really break it down.

Secondbest
04-16-2018, 09:41 PM
There are a lot of good horse this year. If he is lower than horses like Justify and Mendelssohn are higher than we are suspecting.

Justify 3/1
Magnum Moon 5/1
Mendelssohn 6/1
Audible 8/1
Bolt DOro 8/1
Good Magic 12/1
Vino Rosso 12/1

I just clicked off a lot of points in that tote board, and there are still 13 others

i was thinking high single digits. Chad Brown is worth a few points even if it isn't turf. Justify and Mendelsohn will be too low for me. At 12 GM is a bet. I hope your right. After Justify I like him best.

LoneF
04-16-2018, 09:43 PM
Wouldn't surprise me.

Justify is gonna take a lot of money, as will Audible, Mendelssohn, Magnum, and Bolt. At best, he'll be 5th favorite and upwards to 7th choice come post time.

Gotta a feeling Justify goes off at 5/2. It is Baffert. It is Mike Smith. He won the Santa Anita Derby handily by a widening margin and has yet to really be tested as an undefeated horse. His figures are getting better as the distances increase, and while you can point to a number of questions with 'curses' and distance, there isn't a single horse in the field that has answered the 10 furlong bell till it rings the first Saturday in May.

I think Audible will end up as 2nd favorite. His Holy Bull and Florida Derby were awfully impressive.

Justify, Audible, Magnum Moon, and Mendelssohn will all take more money than Good Magic. And likely Bolt will as well. That leaves Vino Rosso, Noble Indy, Solomini, and My Boy Jack as possible contenders for 6th, 7th, 8th favorites.

Thus, I can certainly see 12/1 on GM. Sounds crazy, until you really break it down.

Mendelssohn answered the 9.5 furlong bell and the way he was out in front by 18 lengths I am guessing the last .5 furlong would have not been a issue.

And don’t even try to bring up the quality of field he faced in the UAE Derby as a Justify fan you are the last person who can bring up quality of horses faced to knock another horse lol

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2018, 09:47 PM
There are a lot of good horse this year. If he is lower than horses like Justify and Mendelssohn are higher than we are suspecting.

Justify 3/1
Magnum Moon 5/1
Mendelssohn 6/1
Audible 8/1
Bolt DOro 8/1
Good Magic 12/1
Vino Rosso 12/1

I just clicked off a lot of points in that tote board, and there are still 13 others

Exactly.

I saw that Battaglia was talking about 7 horses being 10/1 or less. :coffee:

That is beyond nuts. He does realize there are 13 other horses in the race in one of the deepest KD fields in quite a long time, right?

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2018, 09:48 PM
Mendelssohn answered the 9.5 furlong bell and the way he was out in front by 18 lengths I am guessing the last .5 furlong would have not been a issue.

And don’t even try to bring up the quality of field he faced in the UAE Derby as a Justify fan you are the last person who can bring up quality of horses faced to knock another horse lol

I'm far from a Justify 'fanboy'. I was simply giving the reasons why he'll be the chalk.

The day I bet the favorite in the Kentucky Derby is when someone has handed me $1 Million and put a gun to my head to go bet it for them.

1GCFAN
04-16-2018, 09:57 PM
Lately the crowd has been betting everything (remember Patch). No more 50-1 or 100-1 shots. There may be some surprising value after Justify and Mendelssohn.

CincyHorseplayer
04-16-2018, 10:07 PM
I'm far from a Justify 'fanboy'. I was simply giving the reasons why he'll be the chalk.

The day I bet the favorite in the Kentucky Derby is when someone has handed me $1 Million and put a gun to my head to go bet it for them.

Nicely put! Right there with you. I respect that one bigtime but know that to really make some coin on this single race, outside of linked bets, which is where I will spread, that horse needs to not win at the very least. I think there are a few that will be worth betting in this one.

GMB@BP
04-16-2018, 11:38 PM
Lately the crowd has been betting everything (remember Patch). No more 50-1 or 100-1 shots. There may be some surprising value after Justify and Mendelssohn.

Started after Giacomo and then Mine That Bird came along to cement the overbet Triple Crown longshot.

PhantomOnTour
04-17-2018, 12:35 AM
As of now, based solely on my eyes, having not seen the pp's... Good Magic is my choice to win it

PowerUpPaynter
04-17-2018, 06:09 AM
I'll Have Another had an even lesser figure than GM. He went from a 5th best last out 94 BSF to roses. Barbaro was 13 points behind Sinister Minister. Giacomo was 25 points behind Bellamy Road. Beyer absolutely blows chunks when it comes to rating 9F preps. I wouldn't be shocked if just using the fastest raw time has a higher Derby impact value than highest BSF.

From final prep to derby beyer I'll Have Another improved 6 pts, Barbaro 8, Giacomo 5... Even if Good Magic improves by 8 I just dont think its enough vs this crop. Good Magic's path to the winners circle is gonna need a pace meltdown sucking in some of the better horses.

PowerUpPaynter
04-17-2018, 06:28 AM
If I was going to make an argument FOR Good Magic id say if you believe the Apollo Curse and 0-51 Storm Cat line will continue, no UAE Derby winner has hit the board, and that the only winner that had a worst dosage # than Audible was Nyquist, who does that leave at the top? Bolt and Good Magic? - and Good Magic already beat Bolt.

Mc990
04-17-2018, 09:55 AM
Sheet players will like him...

Lemon Drop Husker
04-17-2018, 10:01 AM
Sheet players will like him...

He was a big time Sheet play in the Juvy.

I'll have hard a time believing his 2 races since then have matched, much less improved upon his Juvy number.

I'm really interested in what Noble Indy, Audible, Flameaway, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso's Sheet numbers look like. Got a feeling one or two of those is gonna look really appetizing.

Mc990
04-17-2018, 10:19 AM
He was a big time Sheet play in the Juvy.

I'll have hard a time believing his 2 races since then have matched, much less improved upon his Juvy number.

I'm really interested in what Noble Indy, Audible, Flameaway, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso's Sheet numbers look like. Got a feeling one or two of those is gonna look really appetizing.

I can certainly see the argument for making his FOY a couple points slower though. That being said, I think he would still look strong... I liked his Bluegrass, he conceded quite a bit of ground

Lemon Drop Husker
04-17-2018, 10:50 AM
I can certainly see the argument for making his FOY a couple points slower though. That being said, I think he would still look strong... I liked his Bluegrass, he conceded quite a bit of ground

He is an always coming forward horse that isn't a deep closer. He is obviously a favorite of mine, but he is hard to peg into a category for me.

Is he a stalker? Not really I don't think. He isn't pace reliant either as he has 'some' tactical speed, and he certainly isn't a front runner.

Best I can categorize him is as a grinder that won't quit. He'll keep coming no matter what; and he won't be 10 to 15 back either.

Reminds me a lot of Mucho Macho Man. Wasn't much flash or supposed "greatness" about him, but the guy showed up almost every time.

f2tornado
04-17-2018, 10:53 AM
He was a big time Sheet play in the Juvy.

I'll have hard a time believing his 2 races since then have matched, much less improved upon his Juvy number.

From a recent numbers perspective, GM does seem slightly below some others but he fits the winning breeding mold. As I said earlier, If not for the trainer form angle I'd probably be more inclined to leave out of the win pool. He's certainly had a couple decent tests and I get the feeling he's going to be cranked for a big performance. Ever just have a solid gut feeling on a horse?

Lemon Drop Husker
04-17-2018, 10:55 AM
From a recent numbers perspective, GM does seem slightly below some others but he fits the winning breeding mold. As I said earlier, If not for the trainer form angle I'd probably be more inclined to leave out of the win pool. He's certainly had a couple decent tests and I get the feeling he's going to be cranked for a big performance. Ever just have a solid gut feeling on a horse?

Yes.

A Maiden in the BC Juvy. :jump:

PoloUK6108
04-17-2018, 12:57 PM
Yup, my guts been rock solid since they crossed the wire at Keeneland. He'll be ready

GMB@BP
04-17-2018, 02:24 PM
Timeform just doesnt have Good Magic that far behind, he easily could improve and win this race.

Its unlikely new top figs are earned in this race, I dont think any of these horses would be better at 10F rather than 9F. If the Beyer is bigger its because its a 10f grade 1....I dont think we see 130+ timeform, and if we do it would be a pretty special effort.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-17-2018, 02:50 PM
Timeform just doesnt have Good Magic that far behind, he easily could improve and win this race.

Its unlikely new top figs are earned in this race, I dont think any of these horses would be better at 10F rather than 9F. If the Beyer is bigger its because its a 10f grade 1....I dont think we see 130+ timeform, and if we do it would be a pretty special effort.

Quit it.

We don't need half the board on the Magic Train. :)

menifee
04-17-2018, 03:17 PM
Not fast enough to win this race. Horse is a grinder, doesn’t have that quick move or high cruising speed needed to win the Derby. Maybe a factor after they freshen for Belmont. Todd will probably win that race though.

PoloUK6108
04-17-2018, 05:06 PM
Not fast enough to win this race. Horse is a grinder, doesn’t have that quick move or high cruising speed needed to win the Derby. Maybe a factor after they freshen for Belmont. Todd will probably win that race though.

I'm not going to dig in to times, but I know he ran top 5 in BC juveniles..and not sure how much better of a move you could want. He never gets too far off and he always has first run on the closers..that was his 3rd race and his peak, on track to be peaking again...I can go on and on with angles on this horse. Maybe it's because he's been my pick since November, but I think I might have trouble coming up with as many for any of the others.

Robert Fischer
04-17-2018, 05:51 PM
I'm not going to dig in to times, but I know he ran top 5 in BC juveniles..and not sure how much better of a move you could want. He never gets too far off and he always has first run on the closers..that was his 3rd race and his peak, on track to be peaking again...I can go on and on with angles on this horse. Maybe it's because he's been my pick since November, but I think I might have trouble coming up with as many for any of the others.



two separate questions;

Is he capable of running a 'top' as fast as Justify et al.? -I don't know.

Is he capable of reaching a contending position approaching the far turn? - I think he is. He's done a nice job of reaching a contending position thus far. If anything, stretching out the distance is going to help Good Magic in that regard, -assuming nobody opens up on the field mid-race to blow it open.

f2tornado
04-17-2018, 06:01 PM
two separate questions;

Is he capable of running a 'top' as fast as Justify et al.? -I don't know.


Just throwing this out there taking the Santa Anita figures as is; it is also conceivable Justify bounces from the figures achieved in the Santa Anita. In fact, I'd bet on it. Few horses punch out back to back 107 BSFs.

PowerUpPaynter
04-17-2018, 06:01 PM
gimme Vino Rosso over Good Magic.

Both have RAN sire line vis Curlin and both have Buckpasser-X but Vino has the fast closing fractions. I throw out Vino's Tampa races as the Tampa surface some horses like and some horses dont. I never trust anything that happens at Tampa.

PowerUpPaynter
04-17-2018, 06:05 PM
Just throwing this out there taking the Santa Anita figures as is; it is also conceivable Justify bounces from the figures achieved in the Santa Anita. In fact, I'd bet on it. Few horses punch out back to back 107 BSFs.

unless they are freaks... can anyone 100% outrule this horse might just be a freak? I mean he might just be

Spalding No!
04-17-2018, 06:06 PM
I'm not going to dig in to times, but I know he ran top 5 in BC juveniles..and not sure how much better of a move you could want. He never gets too far off and he always has first run on the closers..that was his 3rd race and his peak, on track to be peaking again...I can go on and on with angles on this horse. Maybe it's because he's been my pick since November, but I think I might have trouble coming up with as many for any of the others.
Good Magic breaks sharply in every race (even broke on top in the BC Juvenile) and has to be gathered up to settle under a good hold down the backstretch, so there is plenty of cruising speed if the jock needs to use it. However, the horse relaxes beautifully which is why he is usually in a good spot to get first run as you said.

The main concern with Good Magic at this point is the ugly swap back to his left lead in deep stretch in the Blue Grass. Workouts etc. will hopefully tell the tale of how he is doing physically. On form everything seems to be in place.

f2tornado
04-17-2018, 06:09 PM
gimme Vino Rosso over Good Magic.

Both have RAN sire line vis Curlin and both have Buckpasser-X but Vino has the fast closing fractions. I throw out Vino's Tampa races as the Tampa surface some horses like and some horses dont. I never trust anything that happens at Tampa.

I'm inclined to agree. I originally thought the Wood was a little more honest pace but the 3/4 call was pretty much the same as the Bluegrass. I have a feeling both horses will be in a good spot for the charge provided the trip goes well. I already bet them both in the Future pools. It's just a matter of which one I use more Derby day which might boil down to how the horse looks on the track and the post draw. I'll prefer a Vino/Bolt since I accidentally made a $3 box in Pool 3 that pays 860-1.

unless they are freaks... can anyone 100% outrule this horse might just be a freak? I mean he might just be

I cannot rule it out but he doesn't look like an AP to me... and AP had to really work to win the Derby. We've seen this game before... Dunkirk, Bellamy Road, Goldencents... and on and on. Since freaks are so rare I'm going to bet on the assumption he isn't a freak. If I'm wrong then I will miss out on a 5-2 favorite and $20 exacta then wheel him in the Preakness.

PowerUpPaynter
04-17-2018, 06:16 PM
I'm inclined to agree. I originally thought the Wood was a little more honest pace but the 3/4 call was pretty much the same as the Bluegrass. I have a feeling both horses will be in a good spot for the charge provided the trip goes well. I already bet them both in the Future pools. It's just a matter of which one I use more Derby day which might boil down to how the horse looks on the track and the post draw. I'll prefer a Vino/Bolt since I accidentally made a $3 box in Pool 3 that pays 860-1.



I cannot rule it out but he doesn't look like an AP to me... and AP had to really work to win the Derby. We've seen this game before... Dunkirk, Bellamy Road, Goldencents... and on and on. Since freaks are so rare I'm going to bet on the assumption he isn't a freak. If I'm wrong then I will miss out on a 5-2 favorite and $20 exacta then wheel him in the Preakness.

furthermore go rewatch Vino's Tampa races there are times he looks like someone walking on ice. What happens in tampa stays in tampa... quirky surface...

papillon
04-17-2018, 06:53 PM
gimme Vino Rosso over Good Magic.

Both have RAN sire line vis Curlin and both have Buckpasser-X but Vino has the fast closing fractions. I throw out Vino's Tampa races as the Tampa surface some horses like and some horses dont. I never trust anything that happens at Tampa.


Vino Rosso is going to be a tired horse in the starting gate. The trend for horses coming in with as many races in a row as he's had is not good. I wouldn't qualify this as a curse, just a fact of life, whether horses or humans. Racing month in, month out takes a toll, and tired atheletes run like tired atheletes.

I would have liked a less strong Wood at least.

Good Magic fits the ideal race schedule much better. He shouldn't be tired when he goes to the post.

PowerUpPaynter
04-17-2018, 07:04 PM
Vino Rosso is going to be a tired horse in the starting gate. The trend for horses coming in with as many races in a row as he's had is not good. I wouldn't qualify this as a curse, just a fact of life, whether horses or humans. Racing month in, month out takes a toll, and tired atheletes run like tired atheletes.

I would have liked a less strong Wood at least.

Good Magic fits the ideal race schedule much better. He shouldn't be tired when he goes to the post.

10 of the derby winners this century have had 3 or 4 starts as 3 year olds heading into the derby. Vino has 3. If 3 races is too much for him he dont deserve to win or run a good race.

PoloUK6108
04-17-2018, 07:20 PM
Good Magic breaks sharply in every race (even broke on top in the BC Juvenile) and has to be gathered up to settle under a good hold down the backstretch, so there is plenty of cruising speed if the jock needs to use it. However, the horse relaxes beautifully which is why he is usually in a good spot to get first run as you said.

The main concern with Good Magic at this point is the ugly swap back to his left lead in deep stretch in the Blue Grass. Workouts etc. will hopefully tell the tale of how he is doing physically. On form everything seems to be in place.

FWIW, I saw a Chad quote saying GM got "distracted" near the wire and "goof off" or something along those lines was also in there. Point being he shrugged it off. But like I said, FWIW.

GMB@BP
04-17-2018, 07:51 PM
I'm inclined to agree. I originally thought the Wood was a little more honest pace but the 3/4 call was pretty much the same as the Bluegrass. I have a feeling both horses will be in a good spot for the charge provided the trip goes well. I already bet them both in the Future pools. It's just a matter of which one I use more Derby day which might boil down to how the horse looks on the track and the post draw. I'll prefer a Vino/Bolt since I accidentally made a $3 box in Pool 3 that pays 860-1.



I cannot rule it out but he doesn't look like an AP to me... and AP had to really work to win the Derby. We've seen this game before... Dunkirk, Bellamy Road, Goldencents... and on and on. Since freaks are so rare I'm going to bet on the assumption he isn't a freak. If I'm wrong then I will miss out on a 5-2 favorite and $20 exacta then wheel him in the Preakness.

AP was a really good horse who happened to catch a really bad year in racing. Good for him but freak...meh

Best horse he ever beat...Effinex (RIP)

f2tornado
04-17-2018, 08:13 PM
AP was a really good horse who happened to catch a really bad year in racing. Good for him but freak...meh

Best horse he ever beat...Effinex (RIP)

I merely used him as a convenient comparison given he was perhaps the biggest buzz horse of the decade, though some Chromies might dispute that. AP did beat a lot of nw2 other than maiden until the Breeders Cup but was still a treat to watch. Justify doesn't move quite like him nor does he seem to have that extra gear. I think Justify has a better chance being the next Goldencents than the next AP but we shall see. What's the difference between Justify and Dunkirk (2006) at this point in their careers? About three lengths in final prep.

Spalding No!
04-17-2018, 08:48 PM
What's the difference between Justify and Dunkirk (2006) at this point in their careers? About three lengths in final prep.
Running style for one. Dunkirk settled off the pace in his first 3 starts.

Also, one could conceivably draw a line through Dunkirk's Kentucky Derby effort. In addition to the sloppy sealed track, Dunkirk stumbled badly 2 or 3 strides after the break and was pinballed around as his jock tried to gain position heading for the first turn.

The horse certainly rebounded well in the Belmont, where he adopted a new front-running style and staved off two seperate challenges at the head of the stretch before yielding late to Summer Bird. Came out of the race with a broken leg and never ran again.

If Dunkirk is an example for Justify its that: (1) an inexperienced colt is unlikely to recover from any sort of adversity in the Kentucky Derby and (2) a horse rushed to make it to the classics is probably more at-risk for injury during the campaign.

Secondbest
04-19-2018, 04:09 PM
Latest odds from the Wynn have him at 7-1 tied with Mendelsohn for 3rd choice after Justify at 5/2 and Magnum Moon at 5-1.
Thats a big spread from Justify to the second choice.

PoloUK6108
04-24-2018, 08:02 AM
He was down to 11/2 second choice last check at Wynn yesterday. Justify 14/5

PoloUK6108
05-08-2018, 07:14 PM
Just an appreciation post..

Good job buddy, I wanted it bad for ya. Hope you're not retired way too soon. Expecting big things.

horses4courses
05-14-2018, 07:22 PM
Checking out his digs at Pimlico today along with Baldo Hernandez,
assistant to Chad Brown.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdMYi6JXUAAp8xE.jpg:small

Grits
05-15-2018, 09:54 AM
Doesn't he look fantastic!!!

Those ears are straight up with curiosity!!! :)