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View Full Version : G2 Oaklawn Handicap


jay68802
04-14-2018, 12:54 AM
:1: Malibu Max 20-1 5 yr old has back to back wins and has been improving figure wise. If you think the rail is a disadvantage, look again. Has run real well from this post. Contender

:2: Lookin At Lee 20-1 Lookin at the rear end of other horses for a long time now, needs to be in easier competition. Out.

:3: Sonneteer 20-1 Needs the pace to melt down to contend, might get a fast run up front but there is better late runners here. Underneath at best.

:4: Untrapped 10-1 Always runs the same race it seems and if you want a horse to key in the super you should consider this one.

:5: Hawaakom 10-1 Likes moister in the track and is coming off a win. Bullet work and then easy work after say all systems are go. Track conditions mean everything here, a wet track that allows late runners to close and I will play. The pick in the right situation.

:6: Colonelsdarktemper 20-1 Not much of a chance here IMO. Needs to be close and faces much better. Out.

:7: Hedge Fund 4-1 Has proven to be fast enough to win this figure wise but seems to win only when he is clearly the best. Not today.

:8: Inside Straight 15-1 Defending champ is back, and form looks like it did last year. Loves the track and at 15-1 can suprise. Contender.

:9: Blueridge Traveler 15-1 Looks out gunned here.Out.

:10: Accelerate 9-5 Favorite has good form and the class to be considered here. But is going to have to rely on the class if he is to get it done here. Contender.

:11: City Of Light 3-1 First time around two turns and with his breeding you have to wonder why so long. The speed of the race draws wide and has to go now. Talented for sure but has to prove it to me first. Would not surprise but playing against.

Looks to be a lot of speed here and should set up for the late runners.

Exacta Box: :5::8: / :5::8::10:

Afleet
04-14-2018, 01:49 AM
Malibu Max is interesting in here. Obvious class issues, but improving and if jock makes weight, getting 11 lbs from Accelerate, but only 4 lbs from Hedge Fund. Think Lookin at Lee runs his best race so far this year, but not sure its good enough, but could hit the super. Untrapped could get a good trip here, but never seems good enough. Would like to see what this horse could do at 7F or 1 mile. Can't argue w/anyone liking the favorites; their speed figures tower over the field. Colonelsdarktemper 2nd off w/two fast works. Maybe the Californians won't like the change of scenery and this could come up crazy

jay68802
04-14-2018, 09:21 AM
Exacta Box: :5::8: / :5::8::10:

Knew i left someing out:

Should be: :1::5::8: / :1::5::8::10:

Mc990
04-14-2018, 10:24 AM
Value is on the 4 IMO, even at half the morning line.

cutchemist42
04-14-2018, 06:47 PM
I have the :5: in the VIP contest.

GMB@BP
04-14-2018, 07:03 PM
City of Light was actually much best in my opinion, that horse has an outstanding future with his versatility.

jay68802
04-14-2018, 07:38 PM
City of Light was actually much best in my opinion, that horse has an outstanding future with his versatility.

I have to agree with you, showed the ability to rate for really the first time. Was bred for the distance. Proved himself today.

Afleet
04-15-2018, 06:16 PM
I have to agree with you, showed the ability to rate for really the first time. Was bred for the distance. Proved himself today.

City of Light was extremely impressive. I had him in the pick 5, but put $100 win on Colonelsdarktemper. This is arguably the worst bet I have ever made. Caught the pick 5 to save the day and to end a losing streak.

biggestal99
04-16-2018, 01:38 PM
I have to agree with you, showed the ability to rate for really the first time. Was bred for the distance. Proved himself today.

Played him in the VIP contest; no brainer.

Has immense talent.

Allan

biggestal99
04-16-2018, 01:40 PM
Inside Straight refused to break. Very bad omen.

Allan

letswastemoney
04-16-2018, 02:23 PM
It's nice to see City of Light still doing well. He was my choice in the Malibu Stakes when I saw him withstand a very hot pace one race before at Del Mar.

I didn't know he could go this far though.

Denny
04-16-2018, 02:47 PM
Never understood the expression "have to see it first"?!

You said it on the #11 Jay, in different words.

Watchmaker uses it all the time.

By the time you "see it", it's too late to make any money off it. It's already happened and now everybody has seen it.

jay68802
04-16-2018, 05:57 PM
Never understood the expression "have to see it first"?!

You said it on the #11 Jay, in different words.

Watchmaker uses it all the time.

By the time you "see it", it's too late to make any money off it. It's already happened and now everybody has seen it.

If I am going to take a stand I do it. First time around two turns in Graded Stakes company. How many horses win in this situation? Not many. The horse showed promise, no doubt about that. He showed the ability to set a high pace and finish a race in good time, in sprints. He was bred for the distance also. But the other choice was to bet against the 10, and he was a proven winner in Graded company and was in good form. I will take my chances against a horse until he proves me otherwise.

Denny
04-16-2018, 08:22 PM
I hear you Jay.

Suppose price has to be taken into account. He was a poor risk at 3-1 is what I'm hearing you say.

City of Lights would have been a great bet , at say 10-1. Whether he did it before or not. Horse had the Class and az you point out the breeding.

Just not fond of the expression "have to see it first" in general. :)

Tom
04-16-2018, 09:28 PM
I narrowed the filed down to City and Accelerate.
Accelerate had run faster and farther, but there was no value.
I couldn't bet the race.

I still will take horses like Accelerate over City everyday.

Just glad it wasn't SATURday! ;)

biggestal99
04-17-2018, 08:36 AM
I narrowed the filed down to City and Accelerate.
Accelerate had run faster and farther, but there was no value.
I couldn't bet the race.

I still will take horses like Accelerate over City everyday.

Just glad it wasn't SATURday! ;)

To use the uk expression, city of light was unexposed, we all knew what accelerate can do at 9f. We had yet to see what COL could do at 9. That 106 Beyer in the last G1 sprint set him up nicely for the race. Basically only had to beat accelarate and he did.

Now they have proved that COL can do two turns and sprint at a high level. They have plenty of options for future races.

Allan

Tom
04-17-2018, 11:16 AM
But the price was way to short to take with him doing something he had never done before - two turns.

I'll pass this kind every time at low odds.
There are lots of races out there.

biggestal99
04-18-2018, 06:24 AM
But the price was way to short to take with him doing something he had never done before - two turns.

I'll pass this kind every time at low odds.
There are lots of races out there.

Yeah but this was a vip mandatory race.

You had to pick someone.

Who did you up on. The chalk accererate?

Allan

Tom
04-18-2018, 10:30 AM
It was either him or Hedge Fund.
I think Accelerate.

Kudos to our own Michigan Ken.
I went back to the race after we talked about it and used is CE formula in the BRIS PPS and COL came up clearly as a horse who should go well when stretched out with a CE=95.

Ken has some very neat stuff using BRIS he has posted here in the past.