A Note About Mendelssohn That Deserves Its Own Thread

[PowerUpPaynter]

Over all the replays available and maybe the only racing days at Meydan (Mar 31, Mar 10, Mar 1, Feb 22, Feb 17, and Feb 15) there were 17 races for thoroughbreds on dirt - 16 of those races were won wire to wire by an inside speed horse. Thats an amazing bias...

[LoneF]

Over all the replays available and maybe the only racing days at Meydan (Mar 31, Mar 10, Mar 1, Feb 22, Feb 17, and Feb 15) there were 17 races for thoroughbreds on dirt - 16 of those races were won wire to wire by an inside speed horse. Thats an amazing bias...

I get your point but I think it would apply to Mendelssohn more if he was just some random horse that all the sudden jumped up out of nowhere but he is a 3 million dollar horse that was bred to win the KY derby and he had already won a Breeders Cup race before the show he put on in the UAE derby .

All 3 of Justify races have been ideal set ups for him and that hasn’t slowed down his hype train any ...

[Hoops McCann]

plus he broke the stakes record and won by some 18 lengths

[Tom]

The previous record holder......

[Vinnie]

The previous record holder......
:lol::lol::lol: Oh my Gosh Tom!! LOL....

[CincyHorseplayer]

Whole new meaning to "beaten by a neck"!

[papillon]

Raya had the rail the whole trip, she came in 18 lengths back, but ahead of Reride, who has beaten a horse guaranteed a spot in the KY derby. She is going to be in the Oaks and has been shipped to Baffert. She would be the UAE derby winner and 100 pt KY derby qualifier but for Mendelssohn.

The rail may have helped Mendelssohn, but by 18 lengths? 3.5 seconds? I find it hard to believe Justify was 15 lengths faster than his time says he was, I find it hard to believe Mendelssohn was 18 lengths slower than his time says he was. Why don't we split the difference and say they are exactly the same, if we are going to play fast and loose with objective reality?

Serious question: Several derby hopefuls lost to Mendelssohn in the BCJT, how does their lengths behind him compare to Reride's time and lengths behind Raya (accounting for the difference in length)? How does their lengths behind Mendelssohn in the BCJT comepare to their performances vis a vis other derby horses to date?

The rail may have helped, but he was also in blinkers and on the surface he was bred for for the first time, those may have helped more, and maybe Reride was disadvantaged by no Lasix, but by over 18 lengths?

I've never seen Justify nor Mendelssohn in person. It is hard to judge how big they are vis a vis each other (on TV they 2 inches tall), and how nice they look vis a vis each other, but Coolmore and Spendthrift wanted Mendelssohn so badly the dueled it out. Spendthrift wanted him because of his relationship with Beholder and Into Mischief. Coolmore wanted him to replace Scat Daddy. As we see by the likely derby starting gate entants, there were no shortage of quality Scat Daddies and Into Mischiefs in this crop, but they wanted this one, $3 million dollars badly enough. That's nothing to sniff at or dismiss because of a golden rail.

[Tom]

Secretariat won by 31 and got beat next time out. :eek:
When a horse goes out alone like, it is not usually a sign of greatness, just opportunity.

I seriously doubt Mendy will run anything close that race ever again.

[GMB@BP]

I get your point but I think it would apply to Mendelssohn more if he was just some random horse that all the sudden jumped up out of nowhere but he is a 3 million dollar horse that was bred to win the KY derby and he had already won a Breeders Cup race before the show he put on in the UAE derby .

All 3 of Justify races have been ideal set ups for him and that hasn’t slowed down his hype train any ...

There is no Mendelssohn hype train?

The reason he has his pedigree and other races is why he is not being throughly dismissed due to the bias.

[Wiley]

Secretariat won by 31 and got beat next time out. :eek:
When a horse goes out alone like, it is not usually a sign of greatness, just opportunity.

I seriously doubt Mendy will run anything close that race ever again.

Does he need too to win this Derby? Doubt it. I am not sold on Justify, short fields everything his way in only three races, so what. Mendy is intriguing to me and hope he comes into the race in good order with a decent post.

Secretariat did win his next race by 9, at AP, a fifth off the track record at a mile and an eighth. Yeah he lost to Onion and Prove Out after his Belmont, but later set a world record in the Marlboro for a mile and an eighth and a track record on the turf at Woodbine later in the year. No reason to think Mendy cannot improve off of that effort, even with the rail bias of Meydan.

He is a great moving colt who is a half to Beholder who herself ran an amazing runner up effort in her CD Oaks, I remember she was a mess pre race, threw her jock, ran on a fast pace and barely got run down late. Beholder was about as hard a trying mare as you will ever see.
I am giving Mendy a long look this year, hopefully he does not pull a Thunder Snow 'bucking bronco' show like last year.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Secretariat won by 31 and got beat next time out. :eek:
When a horse goes out alone like, it is not usually a sign of greatness, just opportunity.

I seriously doubt Mendy will run anything close that race ever again.

I can't wait to see! We had 2 runaway winners everyone is calling BS on. One of them be better odds. You really rootin for chalk? Mendy looks better.

[Spalding No!]

Serious question: Several derby hopefuls lost to Mendelssohn in the BCJT, how does their lengths behind him compare to Reride's time and lengths behind Raya (accounting for the difference in length)? How does their lengths behind Mendelssohn in the BCJT comepare to their performances vis a vis other derby horses to date?

A horse's turf form has practically no relevance to it's dirt form and vice versa.

If that was the case then using U S Navy Flag (10th in the BC Juvenile) as our common link, Mendelssohn--found wanting 2.5 lengths behind U S Navy Flag in the Dewhurst on turf--would be be about 28 lengths behind the trio of Good Magic, Solomini, and Bolt D'Oro on strict form lines.

The good news is, he only has 3 lengths to make up on Free Drop Billy...

[boys at tosconova]

The previous record holder......

posts like this makes me believe spanky won't be retired this year by the UAE winner......although spanky has now set up shop in the wood

[Afleet]

The previous record holder......

think I caught the super that day-I was on fire!

[LoneF]

Justify has been the poster child for “opportunity” lol

Can you imagine what Mendelssohn would have done to the fields Justify faced in his first 2 races ... And do you really think if Mendelssohn would have gotten the same match race type scenario against Bolt that Justify did do you think Mendelssohn would have been all out to win by a few lengths ?

[GMB@BP]

Justify has been the poster child for “opportunity” lol

Can you imagine what Mendelssohn would have done to the fields Justify faced in his first 2 races ... And do you really think if Mendelssohn would have gotten the same match race type scenario against Bolt that Justify did do you think Mendelssohn would have been all out to win by a few lengths ?

No, your right....i think he would have lost

[Tom]

This so reminds me of the Fat Man when Invasor (he is the best!)won the Classic.......

[MNslappy]

We get one every year about this time, I love it. Never change Pace Advantage.

[CincyHorseplayer]

We get one every year about this time, I love it. Never change Pace Advantage.

I get Derby fever.

But I am always left awestruck by those that reach masturbatory status with the race!:cool:

[Kitan]

I've never seen Justify nor Mendelssohn in person. It is hard to judge how big they are vis a vis each other (on TV they 2 inches tall), and how nice they look vis a vis each other, but Coolmore and Spendthrift wanted Mendelssohn so badly the dueled it out. Spendthrift wanted him because of his relationship with Beholder and Into Mischief. Coolmore wanted him to replace Scat Daddy. As we see by the likely derby starting gate entants, there were no shortage of quality Scat Daddies and Into Mischiefs in this crop, but they wanted this one, $3 million dollars badly enough. That's nothing to sniff at or dismiss because of a golden rail.

Was able to snap a close-up of Mendelssohn in the parade ring. Beautiful animal.

https://i.imgur.com/D1FOFxF.jpg

[burnsy]

I'm throwing this horse in my numbers because he's won big races all over the map, on multiple surfaces, way more racing experience than both chalks and if people have not figured out, these people don't show up to stick a thumb up their asses.

After seeing those races Justify ran in, his competition, even the ones that shipped out of state (California). I'm not sold on the hype at all. In the Santa Anita Derby he beat a horse that has a million excuses without winning at the wire and a bunch of scrubs. I'm willing to pay to see him beat me. Every year somehow there's a new goof ball eating the hype. I wonder if its a "plant". Because most times when the horse gets beat they suddenly "disappear".......:lol:

I've got it down to 3 or 4 i like and this is one of them. The only way i could bet the top two in odds with drifting out stretch runs and little experience is if they were not chalk. I'm liking this race with Justify and Magnum Moon shaping up as chalk. Because i think 3 or 4 are looking better at a better price
and this is one of them.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm throwing this horse in my numbers because he's won big races all over the map, on multiple surfaces, way more racing experience than both chalks and if people have not figured out, these people don't show up to stick a thumb up their asses.

After seeing those races Justify ran in, his competition, even the ones that shipped out of state (California). I'm not sold on the hype at all. In the Santa Anita Derby he beat a horse that has a million excuses without winning at the wire and a bunch of scrubs. I'm willing to pay to see him beat me. Every year somehow there's a new goof ball eating the hype. I wonder if its a "plant". Because most times when the horse gets beat they suddenly "disappear".......:lol:

I've got it down to 3 or 4 i like and this is one of them. The only way i could bet the top two in odds with drifting out stretch runs and little experience is if they were not chalk. I'm liking this race with Justify and Magnum Moon shaping up as chalk. Because i think 3 or 4 are looking better at a better price
and this is one of them.




The hype derby horse has won 5 str years

[papillon]

The hype derby horse has won 5 str years

Always Dreaming. I will give you Always Dreaming, he is like him: MSW, ALLOC, FL derby, ridiculous hype (except for unraced at 2, which may or may not be significant, but just shy of 120 years suggests it's is).

BUT:

Nyquist was the undefeated 2yo champ, BCJ winner on a 7 race winning streak, who had just easily put away the horse everyone was saying was the 2nd coming of whomever they thought was the 1st coming. Jeff Siegal was saying Mohamen was going to win the Triple crown.

American Pharoah had been the "It" horse since the summer before. Nothing but AP this, AP that for 8 months.

Chrome was a national phenomenon. He was the Princess Diana of horse racing.

Orb was a blue blooded horse, with sentimental ties to racing's storied past as a Phipps/Shug horse on a 5 race winning streak, and his odds weren't even all that impressive.

The winners last four years before Always Dreaming would have been silly not to have been the favorites, and would have been shocking if they lost, which American Pharoah almost did, but for 38 lashes and firing line's failure to change leads.

Justify likely will go off as the favorite, but he isn't a favorite like the four before Always Dreaming, and last year's crop was pretty clunky in retrospect. Do you see this year's competition as the same quality as Always Dreaming's competition?

The question is, has the public gotten it right due to astuteness, or has the real trend just been that four of the past five years have had a single horse who has dominated their crop?

Regardless of what you think about Justify, and apparently doubting him makes people trolls, Justify has not dominated his crop. He has beaten one horse of note, who hasn't won since September. How many KY derby bound horses have been pegged as true competition, who haven't won in 6 months and 3 races? Doesn't mean Bolt D'Oro isn't but, come on, he isn't Exagerator or Mohamen at this moment in time.

[PoloUK6108]

Does he need too to win this Derby? Doubt it. I am not sold on Justify, short fields everything his way in only three races, so what. Mendy is intriguing to me and hope he comes into the race in good order with a decent post.

Secretariat did win his next race by 9, at AP, a fifth off the track record at a mile and an eighth. Yeah he lost to Onion and Prove Out after his Belmont, but later set a world record in the Marlboro for a mile and an eighth and a track record on the turf at Woodbine later in the year. No reason to think Mendy cannot improve off of that effort, even with the rail bias of Meydan.

He is a great moving colt who is a half to Beholder who herself ran an amazing runner up effort in her CD Oaks, I remember she was a mess pre race, threw her jock, ran on a fast pace and barely got run down late. Beholder was about as hard a trying mare as you will ever see.
I am giving Mendy a long look this year, hopefully he does not pull a Thunder Snow 'bucking bronco' show like last year.

So you think the only horse he's gotta beat is Justify?

[PoloUK6108]

Always Dreaming. I will give you Always Dreaming, he is like him: MSW, ALLOC, FL derby, ridiculous hype (except for unraced at 2, which may or may not be significant, but just shy of 120 years suggests it's is).

BUT:

Nyquist was the undefeated 2yo champ, BCJ winner on a 7 race winning streak, who had just easily put away the horse everyone was saying was the 2nd coming of whomever they thought was the 1st coming. Jeff Siegal was saying Mohamen was going to win the Triple crown.

American Pharoah had been the "It" horse since the summer before. Nothing but AP this, AP that for 8 months.

Chrome was a national phenomenon. He was the Princess Diana of horse racing.

Orb was a blue blooded horse, with sentimental ties to racing's storied past as a Phipps/Shug horse on a 5 race winning streak, and his odds weren't even all that impressive.

The winners last four years before Always Dreaming would have been silly not to have been the favorites, and would have been shocking if they lost, which American Pharoah almost did, but for 38 lashes and firing line's failure to change leads.

Justify likely will go off as the favorite, but he isn't a favorite like the four before Always Dreaming, and last year's crop was pretty clunky in retrospect. Do you see this year's competition as the same quality as Always Dreaming's competition?

The question is, has the public gotten it right due to astuteness, or has the real trend just been that four of the past five years have had a single horse who has dominated their crop?

Regardless of what you think about Justify, and apparently doubting him makes people trolls, Justify has not dominated his crop. He has beaten one horse of note, who hasn't won since September. How many KY derby bound horses have been pegged as true competition, who haven't won in 6 months and 3 races? Doesn't mean Bolt D'Oro isn't but, come on, he isn't Exagerator or Mohamen at this moment in time.

I like it, looking at it a very similar way. :ThmbUp:

[Spalding No!]

How many KY derby bound horses have been pegged as true competition, who haven't won in 6 months and 3 races? Doesn't mean Bolt D'Oro isn't but, come on, he isn't Exagerator or Mohamen at this moment in time.
Tejano Run
Timber Country
Sea Hero
Gato Del Sol
Giacomo
Alysheba
Best Pal
Blumin Affair
Cat Thief
Funny Cide
Super Saver
Saarland
Editor's Note
Captain Steve
Normandy Invasion

[SkunkApe]

Heh. This year’s “goof ball eating the hype” IS Mendelssohn.

[f2tornado]

The question is, has the public gotten it right due to astuteness, or has the real trend just been that four of the past five years have had a single horse who has dominated their crop?

Regardless of what you think about Justify, and apparently doubting him makes people trolls, Justify has not dominated his crop. He has beaten one horse of note, who hasn't won since September. How many KY derby bound horses have been pegged as true competition, who haven't won in 6 months and 3 races? Doesn't mean Bolt D'Oro isn't but, come on, he isn't Exagerator or Mohamen at this moment in time.

Thou shalt not question the calculated variant at Santa Anita. It is written in the Book of Baffert. Thou shalt trust all speed figures. It is written in the Book of Beyer.

In the real world, Andrew Beyer is 0 fer infinity picking a Derby winner mostly based on his published figures. I gotta give the man credit standing behind his numbers even when he's a loser.

Best last out Brisnet figures largely suck picking the Derby winner as well. (https://www.usracing.com/news/kentucky-derby-road-to-the-roses/speed-figures-matter-kentucky-derby) They're a whopping 5-29 but at least that's better than Beyer's 0 fer infinity. Heck, he even picked Pyro over Big Brown in spite of Big Brown having the highest 9F BSF that year.

Justify is just a few lengths from being identical to Dunkirk (2009) at this point and the Derby didn't go so well for him.

[Buckeye]

Secretariat won by 31 and got beat next time out. :eek:
When a horse goes out alone like, it is not usually a sign of greatness, just opportunity.

I seriously doubt Mendy will run anything close that race ever again.

What do you base that on Tom?

So you're saying Secretariat wasn't a great horse?

[CincyHorseplayer]

It's funny how this is working. Mendelssohn had 5 races in 3 countries as a 2yo and a G1 win in the BC JT. Now has 2 wins in 2 countries on 2 different surfaces this year and the 2nd highest figure on Beyer and CJ's unofficial fig but somehow he's the fraud because of racing with a bias and in this particular race. I get that, I really do but even with that Justify having no races at 2, 1 stakes win, and in a race that can be chalked up to biased while loping along loose on an uncontested lead, deciding who is less fraudulent is easy. Justify hasn't done half of what Mendelssohn has done. The amount of drool and bias being applied is pathetic IMO. Even if you are right you get 3-1. Yay for you!

[f2tornado]

Trakus suggest's Mendelssohn ran about the same as any 9F winning counterpart on US soil. His 1200 meter factor (very near 3/4) was a yawn inspiring 111:87. Like his American counterparts, he picked it up thereafter but his victory was not that impressive when you consider the filly was the next best finisher who might be the 6th choice in the KY Oaks. It was the equivalent of taking Bolt out of the Santa Anita. Mendelssohn could certainly be dangerous at Churchill but so could a bunch of others. In a race packed with talent I gotta eventually draw lines through some of them. I like Ryan Moore but advantage to regular riders at the track/race.

[Spalding No!]

I like Ryan Moore but advantage to regular riders at the track/race.
An interesting dilemma will be whether or not Ryan Moore actually shows up to ride Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby.

The 2000 Guineas is run on the same day at Newmarket and Moore obviously has the pick of the Coolmore entrants. As progressive as Mendelssohn has been over the last few months, the tale will be told with Moore's decision. Coolmore's Saxon Warrior is the early favorite for not only the 2000 Guineas, but the Epsom Derby as well. Not an easy mount to leave vacant.

If Moore opts to stay at home that could signal all is not well with Mendelssohn (or that Saxon Warrior is a potential world beater). But it may become a blessing in disguise as O'Brien could pick up an American rider to make the most of Mendelssohn's early speed.

[papillon]

Tejano Run
Timber Country
Sea Hero
Gato Del Sol
Giacomo
Alysheba
Best Pal
Blumin Affair
Cat Thief
Funny Cide
Super Saver
Saarland
Editor's Note
Captain Steve
Normandy Invasion

Yep, Giaccomo really struck fear into everyone, they were so sure he was a contender they sent him off at 50-1

Best Pal did not win the derby, and the favorites were Fly So Free, Strike the Gold, and Hansel.

Sea Hero was 30-1 on the ML

Gato del Sol went of at 21-1

Blumin Affair went off at 14-1 and did not win the derby that is most remembered because it is the one Holy Bull lost to Go for Gin. Blumin Affair's odds in the BCJ were 42-1.

Cat Thief did not win the derby, went off 8-1

Funny Cide went off at 15-1

Super Saver was 8-1, but the favorite, Lookin at Lucky was only 6-1--it was not a formfull pre-season.

I'll give you Saarland, who made no sense, sending him off the co-favorite at 6-1 with Harlan's Holiday, when Madaglio D'Oro went off at 8-1. smh. Horse came home 10th. Anyone who bet that horse at 6-1 deserved to loose money.

Editor's Note went off 5-1 in a coupled entry with Grindstone, Lukas's other coupled entry also went off at 5-1, he didn't win. but if you bet him, you stumbled on the win anyway via Grindstone.

I don't even remember Captain Steve, but Normandy Invasion was the classic, no winning wise guy horse who kept right on not winning. I took so much flack for being completely unimpressed with that horse. That should the test, before anyone posts, they should have to say where they stood with Normandy Invasion, it should be in their signature.

This list says, don't bet on horses on losing streaks. They usually just keep on loosing.

[LoneF]

Mendelssohn = Highest purchase price as a yearling

Mendelssohn = Highest career earnings

As Trevor Denman would say he just exudes class

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I don't even remember Captain Steve, but Normandy Invasion was the classic, no winning wise guy horse who kept right on not winning. I took so much flack for being completely unimpressed with that horse. That should the test, before anyone posts, they should have to say where they stood with Normandy Invasion, it should be in their signature.

This list says, don't bet on horses on losing streaks. They usually just keep on loosing.

I bet Normandy Invasion along with Palace Malice that year. I also bet Palace Malice back in the Belmont to make it all well. :ThmbUp:

I've also bet Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Giacamo (huge disclaimer, it was $5 across saver that I shared with a friend). Hard Spun, Mucho Macho Man, Afleet Alex, Exaggerator, Firing Line, Congaree, More Than Ready.

I haven't had a winner in over a decade.

Who are your winners?

[Spalding No!]

Yep, Giaccomo really struck fear into everyone, they were so sure he was a contender they sent him off at 50-1
He won the race! Because the public couldn't pick him out he wasn't "true competition"? I guess since runner-up Closing Argument was 70-1 we can retroactively crown Afleet Alex the 2005 Triple Crown winner...

Best Pal did not win the derby, and the favorites were Fly So Free, Strike the Gold, and Hansel.
Nice. Best Pal at 5.20-1 odds ran 2nd to Strike The Gold who won at 4.80-1 odds and therefore was not "true competition".

Sea Hero was 30-1 on the ML
Won the race. Bet down to 12-1 from the 30-1 ML. Somebody must have pegged him as "true competition".

Blumin Affair went off at 14-1 and did not win the derby that is most remembered because it is the one Holy Bull lost to Go for Gin. Blumin Affair's odds in the BCJ were 42-1.
Blumin Affair was not 14-1, he was the 4th choice at less than 8-1. Go For Gin was higher odds. Who cares what his odds were as a 2yo? He was "true competition" in the Derby.

Cat Thief did not win the derby, went off 8-1
Nope. 7-1 in a 19-horse field. Had the lead in deep stretch.

Funny Cide went off at 15-1
Won the race. Was "true competition" for Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial, too.

Super Saver was 8-1, but the favorite, Lookin at Lucky was only 6-1--it was not a formfull pre-season.
Huh? Super Saver was practically the favorite despite being winless in the preps but he still doesn't fit the "true competition" criteria?

I'll give you Saarland, who made no sense, sending him off the co-favorite at 6-1 with Harlan's Holiday, when Madaglio D'Oro went off at 8-1. smh. Horse came home 10th. Anyone who bet that horse at 6-1 deserved to loose money.
So the horse that ended up 10th is the only one that was "true competition"?

I guess I'm confused as to what you were trying to say. Bolt D'Oro has no shot because he hasn't won a prep? Or Bolt D'Oro ought to be dismissed in the betting (even if he has a shot) because he hasn't won a prep?

This list says, don't bet on horses on losing streaks. They usually just keep on loosing.
No, the list says that horses that are winless in the preps can--based on performance--be competitive in the Kentucky Derby.

I listed 15 horses. The record in the Kentucky Derby stands at 15-6-3-3.

3 of those also won the Preakness and 1 other won the Belmont.

[Vinnie]

Secretariat won by 31 and got beat next time out. :eek:
When a horse goes out alone like, it is not usually a sign of greatness, just opportunity.

I seriously doubt Mendy will run anything close that race ever again.

What an insane bias that gentleman on the video pointed out at Meydan for the racing carnival. It was a virtual drag strip for the inside horse that was also on the lead. I like Mendy, however, if he ever runs a race like that again at any other location than Meydan, I will be shocked indeed. :eek:

[papillon]

He won the race! Because the public couldn't pick him out he wasn't "true competition"? I guess since runner-up Closing Argument was 70-1 we can retroactively crown Afleet Alex the 2005 Triple Crown winner...


Nice. Best Pal at 5.20-1 odds ran 2nd to Strike The Gold who won at 4.80-1 odds and therefore was not "true competition".


Won the race. Bet down to 12-1 from the 30-1 ML. Somebody must have pegged him as "true competition".


Blumin Affair was not 14-1, he was the 4th choice at less than 8-1. Go For Gin was higher odds. Who cares what his odds were as a 2yo? He was "true competition" in the Derby.


Nope. 7-1 in a 19-horse field. Had the lead in deep stretch.


Won the race. Was "true competition" for Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial, too.


Huh? Super Saver was practically the favorite despite being winless in the preps but he still doesn't fit the "true competition" criteria?


So the horse that ended up 10th is the only one that was "true competition"?

I guess I'm confused as to what you were trying to say. Bolt D'Oro has no shot because he hasn't won a prep? Or Bolt D'Oro ought to be dismissed in the betting (even if he has a shot) because he hasn't won a prep?


No, the list says that horses that are winless in the preps can--based on performance--be competitive in the Kentucky Derby.

I listed 15 horses. The record in the Kentucky Derby stands at 15-6-3-3.

3 of those also won the Preakness and 1 other won the Belmont.

Your list to me was in response to my comment that horses who haven't won since Sept of their 2 yo year aren't treated as feared competition to win the derby by the betting public on race day. The only way to assess that is via their odds. The last time I checked favortism is always determined by the odds, and that "being almost" a favorite or a long shot who pulls it off, does not make you a favorite.

You have now changed it to being a list of horses who out performed their odds in the KY derby, perhaps you misunderstood me, or perhaps you've deliberately changed the issue, and given that you've expanded the conversation to other races, it feels like "debate sliding" to me.

I got all of the post odds from the videos of the respective derbies, if they are wrong, blame Jim McKay. If you want to call me a liar, I'll post every single one of them.

Normandy Invasion was a bad bet. He just was. The love for him was exactly like that other non winning wise guy heart throbe Wicked Strong.

I didn't bet last year. I had Nyquist over Exagerator the year before. I did not bet the American Pharoah or Chrome derbies because I was sick. I wouldn't have picked American Pharoah, so I would have lost that one. I was sickest during Chrome's run, so I really had no clue what was going on in the world. I had Orb over Golden Soul, and my super was Orb, Golden Soul, Will Take Charge, and Revolutionary. Had I just boxed WTC and Revolutionary, I would have walked away with $20,000, I didn't. I had Hansen boxed with I'll Have Another, so nada. I was all in on Shackleford, and regret not a penny lost on him. I had win bets on both Giacomo and Mine That Bird because I always put bets on true longshots, because hey, why not. I had Monarchos and Songandprayer boxed. I have a horrible habit of picking the winner and messing it up with a loser. You'll probablly also notice a FL derby bias, what can I say, my home track is GP, except for Pletcher's flash in pans, I never bet them.

My reply to you wasn't to try to claim being the greatest handicapper ever, but to point out, your list did not support your contention.

Bet Bolt D'Oro, I sincerely wish you good luck. I'll let him beat me.

[Hoops McCann]

An interesting dilemma will be whether or not Ryan Moore actually shows up to ride Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby.

The 2000 Guineas is run on the same day at Newmarket and Moore obviously has the pick of the Coolmore entrants. As progressive as Mendelssohn has been over the last few months, the tale will be told with Moore's decision. Coolmore's Saxon Warrior is the early favorite for not only the 2000 Guineas, but the Epsom Derby as well. Not an easy mount to leave vacant.

If Moore opts to stay at home that could signal all is not well with Mendelssohn (or that Saxon Warrior is a potential world beater). But it may become a blessing in disguise as O'Brien could pick up an American rider to make the most of Mendelssohn's early speed.

didn't realize that. quite the quandary indeed. if he Moore rides Saxon Warrior, i wouldn't assume that means he thinks any less of Mendelssohn. the 2000 Guineas is a big deal.

[upthecreek]

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42027-the-2017-bc-juvenile-turf-won-by-ky-derby-hope-mendelssohn-is-coming-back-a-super-key-race

[PoloUK6108]

Ryan Moore confirmed to ride for the roses

[GMB@BP]

Ryan Moore confirmed to ride for the roses

definitely a better sign than if he didnt, it would be an auto toss if did not stick with the horse.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Ryan Moore confirmed to ride for the roses

That's bigtime.

[Hoops McCann]

glad to hear it. Saxon Warrior will probably win without him.

[Gerard02]

I watched the race and the one thing I was wondering was why the jockey was pushing Mendelssohn down the stretch so hard. He even gave him a slap with the stick. The horse was so far down the stretch, he could have jogged home. The jockey should not have been all out on this horse. I've seen jocks just sitting up in the stirrups while horses cruise home. Just something I noticed.

[jay68802]

I watched the race and the one thing I was wondering was why the jockey was pushing Mendelssohn down the stretch so hard. He even gave him a slap with the stick. The horse was so far down the stretch, he could have jogged home. The jockey should not have been all out on this horse. I've seen jocks just sitting up in the stirrups while horses cruise home. Just something I noticed.

I think that came from the trainer, keep him going the whole race. He thinks if you let up on the horse, the horse will learn to quit in the stretch.

[Gerard02]

I think that came from the trainer, keep him going the whole race. He thinks if you let up on the horse, the horse will learn to quit in the stretch.


I'm not sure about that. You don't push a horse, if you don't have to. Horses have a sense of their races. They know when they are going good. Some are lazy, but this was not a case of give him the goods. Something about the race is nagging me. I'll lay off this boy, until I have another option. I may get it next week.

[PoloUK6108]

Did Giants Causeway ever quit? Nope
Did Toast Of New York quit? Nope
Did Declaration Of War? Nope...

Could be something to it..
Them boys 'cross the pond can train for stamina, tell ya what!

They all lost though.

[sammy the sage]

The Filly on Fri. in the Oaks will give a much better reading of what to make of Mindy....

[kevb]

The Filly on Fri. in the Oaks will give a much better reading of what to make of Mindy....

Yes. If Rayaa wins as much the best, Mendelssohn is my key/single. If she trails and doesn't lift a gallop, then maybe she didn't ship well or didn't like the CD surface, and I still use Mendy, but with Justify and GM. If she clunks along and finishes midpack, then it'll be more difficult for me to use him on top.

[clicknow]

I guess you all heard that Leslie's Lady (Broodmare of the year) and Mendelssohn's dam just had her filly by American Pharoah yesterday. :)



https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/227180/leslies-lady-delivers-american-pharoah-filly

[CincyHorseplayer]

I guess you all heard that Leslie's Lady (Broodmare of the year) and Mendelssohn's dam just had her filly by American Pharoah yesterday. :)



https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/227180/leslies-lady-delivers-american-pharoah-filly

Wow now there's one to watch! Thanks for that clicknow.

[glengarry]

The number of people I have heard tossing both Justify and Magnum Moon, whether on tv and radio or on message boards or in simulcast rooms, is making me think the 2 need to be a cold exacta box. No much value, but couple that with one tv expert saying Mendel will be first or off the ticket, I think I have found the horse to put in the third slot.

[BlueChip@DRF]

The number of people I have heard tossing both Justify and Magnum Moon, whether on tv and radio or on message boards or in simulcast rooms, is making me think the 2 need to be a cold exacta box. No much value, but couple that with one tv expert saying Mendel will be first or off the ticket, I think I have found the horse to put in the third slot.

Sounds like a plan! Does glenross agree? :)

[glengarry]

Sounds like a plan! Does glenross agree? :)

You mean Glenross Farms? One thing I learned from a top handicapper, last name Roma. If everyone thinks one thing, I say bet the other way

[papillon]

Yes. If Rayaa wins as much the best, Mendelssohn is my key/single. If she trails and doesn't lift a gallop, then maybe she didn't ship well or didn't like the CD surface, and I still use Mendy, but with Justify and GM. If she clunks along and finishes midpack, then it'll be more difficult for me to use him on top.

Seahenge is supposedly going to run in the Pat Day Mile.

Another KY bred Coolmore/Aiden O'Brien Scat Daddy whose been racing against Mendelssohn from almost day one, may provide even better insight. On firm ground, he's lost to Mendelssohn 3 in a row- on Del Mar turf, Dundalk all weather, and Dubai sand.

If I could, I'd place a bet on a Rayya - Mendelssohn - Seahenge sweep, just for the heck of it.

Boy does Coolmore really wants a new replacement for Scat Daddy. FWIW, they were interested in Justify but passed because he did not pass their vet inspection.

[clicknow]

Does glenross agree? :)

;) David Mamet at his best.

[Buckeye]

You mean Glenross Farms? One thing I learned from a top handicapper, last name Roma. If everyone thinks one thing, I say bet the other way
Hey wait a minute, that's my last name!

[AskinHaskin]

A Note About Mendelssohn That Deserves Its Own Thread



More significant is his trainer being 1-for-54 lifetime in American graded stakes on dirt.


Now whyyyyyyyyyyyy is anyone even considering his charge at a massive underlay??

At least wait until the guy ascends to the 2% threshold in that category.

[SkunkApe]

Uh-oh. I feel a storm a-brewin’...

[clicknow]

More significant is his trainer being 1-for-54 lifetime in American graded stakes on dirt.


Guess we'd need some kinda molecular gauge to measure the difference between that trend and the 0-for-51's. :p



Plenty of folks will be wagering the storm cats and the apollos, etc. and I see very little difference between all of these *trends*. Trainer angles aren't high on my list since good horses take many trrainers to the derby, not the other way around.

[AskinHaskin]

good horses take many trainers to the derby, not the other way around.


OK, then what explains Nick Zero ??

[BlueChip@DRF]

OK, then what explains Nick Zero ??

Who? The Mayor of Belmont? :)

[Robert Fischer]

'video game Mendelssohn'
http://oi65.tinypic.com/r7ov2u.jpg
paints him somewhat like an American Pharaoh... He can run for the lead, relax from hoof-to-ear and cruise along, bound into the far turn and show a big response to tackle leaders/draw off.

Is he the 128 TimeformUS/106 Beyer UAE Derby?

Or the 110 TimeformUS/86 Beyer BCJUVTURF?

Can he get near a Kentucky Derby pace, and chill like he can against the scrubs in Dubai?

Are they set on the lead, with a doomed strategy, when he'd be better suited to sit in the pocket of the 2nd group or so and make 1 run?

lots of questions, interesting horse interesting puzzle

Form

Mendelssohn

7th start G2 UAE DERBY 1 3/16M - Ridden to get the lead, Controlled a moderate-to-slow pace on the lead, field bunched a bit approaching the far turn, opened up on the turn, continued opening up on the field while entering the stretch on the wrong lead, switched leads and continued a a strong run through the stretch to win by an eye-popping 18.5 lengths.

6th start Dundalk Patton S. 1M - (polytrack) Strong run through the stretch. Hard to drive to win by just a length, although he did look visually superior to his rival. I couldn't see the entire race or a good chart, but it may have been a slow-paced race(that would explain the difficulty of drawing away).

5th start G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf 1 1/16M - Drew rail post. Urged from gate to get forward position. Sat in the pocket covered up, saving ground, professional, strong fundamentals, Came off the rail to strike the front and made a strong run through the stretch to win, while late runner closing the gap to 1 Length, but never threatening the outcome.

4th start G1 Darley Dewhurst 7f Turf - tracked leaders, Clearly 2nd-best albeit to very good horse (US Navy Flag).

3rd start G2 Champagne Stakes 7f Turf - tracked leaders, weakened, eased to last.

2nd start 1 M turf weak field - Broke maiden, 1 length winner.

debut 7F Turf strong field - Finished 8th by 16L of a 13-horse field.

[kevb]

Seahenge is supposedly going to run in the Pat Day Mile.

Another KY bred Coolmore/Aiden O'Brien Scat Daddy whose been racing against Mendelssohn from almost day one, may provide even better insight. On firm ground, he's lost to Mendelssohn 3 in a row- on Del Mar turf, Dundalk all weather, and Dubai sand.

If I could, I'd place a bet on a Rayya - Mendelssohn - Seahenge sweep, just for the heck of it.

Boy does Coolmore really wants a new replacement for Scat Daddy. FWIW, they were interested in Justify but passed because he did not pass their vet inspection.

Thanks. I missed that. I'll be interested in Seahenge's run.

[clicknow]

6th start Dundalk Patton S. 1M - (polytrack) Strong run through the stretch. Hard to drive to win by just a length, although he did look visually superior to his rival. I couldn't see the entire race or a good chart, but it may have been a slow-paced race(that would explain the difficulty of drawing away).

I thought carrying 134 lbs might have hurt him here?

He only carried 131 lbs in his first 2 career races as a 2 year old.

Then 3 races in succession where he carried 126, 127, 122 before the race at Dundalk. Seems like carrying that 12 extra pounds next out after lower weights might have impacted his drawing away?

[clicknow]

OK, then what explains Nick Zero ??

At the time I posted I was thinking of Summer Bird.

[CincyHorseplayer]

'video game Mendelssohn'
http://oi65.tinypic.com/r7ov2u.jpg
paints him somewhat like an American Pharaoh... He can run for the lead, relax from hoof-to-ear and cruise along, bound into the far turn and show a big response to tackle leaders/draw off.

Is he the 128 TimeformUS/106 Beyer UAE Derby?

Or the 110 TimeformUS/86 Beyer BCJUVTURF?

Can he get near a Kentucky Derby pace, and chill like he can against the scrubs in Dubai?

Are they set on the lead, with a doomed strategy, when he'd be better suited to sit in the pocket of the 2nd group or so and make 1 run?

lots of questions, interesting horse interesting puzzle

Form

Mendelssohn

7th start G2 UAE DERBY 1 3/16M - Ridden to get the lead, Controlled a moderate-to-slow pace on the lead, field bunched a bit approaching the far turn, opened up on the turn, continued opening up on the field while entering the stretch on the wrong lead, switched leads and continued a a strong run through the stretch to win by an eye-popping 18.5 lengths.

6th start Dundalk Patton S. 1M - (polytrack) Strong run through the stretch. Hard to drive to win by just a length, although he did look visually superior to his rival. I couldn't see the entire race or a good chart, but it may have been a slow-paced race(that would explain the difficulty of drawing away).

5th start G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf 1 1/16M - Drew rail post. Urged from gate to get forward position. Sat in the pocket covered up, saving ground, professional, strong fundamentals, Came off the rail to strike the front and made a strong run through the stretch to win, while late runner closing the gap to 1 Length, but never threatening the outcome.

4th start G1 Darley Dewhurst 7f Turf - tracked leaders, Clearly 2nd-best albeit to very good horse (US Navy Flag).

3rd start G2 Champagne Stakes 7f Turf - tracked leaders, weakened, eased to last.

2nd start 1 M turf weak field - Broke maiden, 1 length winner.

debut 7F Turf strong field - Finished 8th by 16L of a 13-horse field.

Nice write up. I too am thinking a lead will be a doomed strategy. If I knew this horse would stalk the pace I'd have no problem betting him. Do not like his chances gunning straight for the lead vs an American pace.

[Robert Fischer]

I thought carrying 134 lbs might have hurt him here?

He only carried 131 lbs in his first 2 career races as a 2 year old.

Then 3 races in succession where he carried 126, 127, 122 before the race at Dundalk. Seems like carrying that 12 extra pounds next out after lower weights might have impacted his drawing away?

Great point. Weight is such a non-factor here, that I seldom check unless a horse is picking up big weight after recent success.

Was Mendelssohn (134) carrying a lot more than the others?

[clicknow]

Great point. Weight is such a non-factor here, that I seldom check unless a horse is picking up big weight after recent success.

Was Mendelssohn (134) carrying a lot more than the others?

I don't think so, only Raaya carried less weight AFAIK

He was sans lasix though. So he will probably recover from that race more quickly, then add that he will most likely receive lasix in the Derby.

Shipping distance may be a wash as far as the recovering quickly part.

[wisconsin]

Nice write up. I too am thinking a lead will be a doomed strategy. If I knew this horse would stalk the pace I'd have no problem betting him. Do not like his chances gunning straight for the lead vs an American pace.


I think he gets an easy lead myself.

[f2tornado]

I think he gets an easy lead myself.

From the 14 hole with a ton of speed to the inside? I do like his post overall. He should get a clean break from there and that can be half the battle.

[PoloUK6108]

For some reason I keep getting flashbacks of Aiden on his phone after winning the juvenile turf and shaking hands with everyone...is this really the year??

Ain't it great being American?..we kind of want to see it happen, but at the same time we don't because we stick with our own! :headbanger: A generalization, of course..

At least the horse came from KY, but all the best do.

[Afleet]

More significant is his trainer being 1-for-54 lifetime in American graded stakes on dirt.


Now whyyyyyyyyyyyy is anyone even considering his charge at a massive underlay??

At least wait until the guy ascends to the 2% threshold in that category.

How many of those had dirt pedigrees?

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think he gets an easy lead myself.

Not going 25 and 48 he isn't.

[Frost king]

We know that Moore has the mount, but the real question is, where will Aidan be on Saturday, along with the Coolmore gang. Will they be in Kentucky, or back home 2000 British Guineas?

[jocko699]

We know that Moore has the mount, but the real question is, where will Aidan be on Saturday, along with the Coolmore gang. Will they be in Kentucky, or back home Forbthe Irish Guineas?


Isn't the Irish Guineas on May 26? I guess if he's walking back to Ireland he may have to leave before the KD.

[depalma113]

Why doesn't the DRF have a Beyer for Rayya in the UAE Derby?

I guess it is about a 79.

[AskinHaskin]

Why doesn't the DRF have a Beyer for Rayya in the UAE Derby?

I guess it is about a 79.


Do you actually read the Form ? :bang:

[Parkview_Pirate]

Still undecided about Mendy, but the TF rating of 80 by second place finisher Rayya screams he didn't beat much. Foreign horses shipping to the States for two-year and three-year old races ON DIRT don't have a high rate of success, regardless of connections or breeding.

Also leery of the camera work at Dubai distorting things. Back in 2006 when Discrete Cat crushed foes in the UAE Derby, I thought that horse was really something - but he couldn't run past a mile here in the U.S.

It's the old adage about streaks - you can win many times, and only lose once. Or in this case, toss the foreigners until one actually wins the Derby.

[depalma113]

Do you actually read the Form ? :bang:

It's not in the pps.

http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=CD&country=USA&raceDate=20180504&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11

So please elaborate, instead of being a smart ass.

[cj]

It's not in the pps.

http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=CD&country=USA&raceDate=20180504&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11

So please elaborate, instead of being a smart ass.

DRF doesn't publish Beyer figures for foreign races. They publish Timeform ratings only.

[Andy Asaro]

DRF doesn't publish Beyer figures for foreign races. They publish Timeform ratings only.

There is a stat in the thread I started from one of the videos. I believe he said that of 18 T bred races 16 were won wire to wire at Meydan during that period. Will be overbet cuz of T-graph and beyer in form of 106 even though it may be wrong or shouldn't be there.

[cj]

There is a stat in the thread I started from one of the videos. I believe he said that of 18 T bred races 16 were won wire to wire at Meydan during that period. Will be overbet cuz of T-graph and beyer in form of 106 even though it may be wrong or shouldn't be there.

I checked Formulator and didn't see it, but maybe it is in print editions? Beyer did create figures for the Meydan card so maybe they made an exception this time.

[Andy Asaro]

I checked Formulator and didn't see it, but maybe it is in print editions? Beyer did create figures for the Meydan card so maybe they made an exception this time.

It's in the PP's I downloaded on the far right of the line.

[cj]

It's in the PP's I downloaded on the far right of the line.

I see, part of the comment. Interesting. I think the figure is good. I gave an unofficial 128 and 126 on final time, so we're in agreement.

However, I'm more inclined to think this is a Sinister Minister type number given the circumstances.

[depalma113]

DRF doesn't publish Beyer figures for foreign races. They publish Timeform ratings only.

They gave a figure to Mendelssohn for the UAE Derby, so that is why I am asking.

[cj]

They gave a figure to Mendelssohn for the UAE Derby, so that is why I am asking.

Rough estimate, if he got 106, her figure is going to be about 78.

[Andy Asaro]

I see, part of the comment. Interesting. I think the figure is good. I gave an unofficial 128 and 126 on final time, so we're in agreement.

However, I'm more inclined to think this is a Sinister Minister type number given the circumstances.

That's what I'm starting to think.

[papillon]

There is a stat in the thread I started from one of the videos. I believe he said that of 18 T bred races 16 were won wire to wire at Meydan during that period. Will be overbet cuz of T-graph and beyer in form of 106 even though it may be wrong or shouldn't be there.


because the only people who like him use Thorograph and all but Jerry Brown over there are starting getting cold feet.

Most people will be just like my dad--Justify is this year's Jesus horse, that is what ESPN and the local papers say, he's the favorite which to them means chosen by god, and picking him requires absolutely no thought for them, even less than throwing a dart. He will take all of the money, just like Bellamy Road did, which made no sense given Afleet Alex.

The wise guy horse is Hofburg. He'll fall from all of the sizeable bets by the smarty pants hardened horse players and Bolt will fall because he will be held up as the only horse to ever challenge Justify and survive. He'll fall because he justifies Justify.

LoneF gives you a hard time, but no one else does. Everyone else is insulted and dismissed called outright dumb, told to leave. Jerry Brown isn't going to be all snidey to someone for bringing up other runners in other races beaten by a horse in this race to try to provide more data on a horse for whom data is limited, unlike the head of TimeformUS. I know, because it happened both here and there. The guys at Thorograph are eagerly awaiting Rayya's performance; saying the same here generates a half dozen posts saying how glad they'll be when dumbies like you are gone.

This why Mendelssohn won't be overbet, most people are just like you, or too worried about people like you thinking they are stupid. Hofburg and Bolt will be overbet. Hopefully, Justify, Bolt, and Hofburg will push Mendelssohn up, up, up. A week ago, having a discussion seemed like a fun thing to do. This week, listening to you insist he's the biggest fraud in the field, brings me so much joy. I may lose, but I'm not going to lose on 5-2.

[GMB@BP]

Some talk that Mendelssohn may be very close to the same price as Justify...seems strange but I could see a 3/1 and 4/1 scenario.

[LemonSoupKid]

Secretariat won by 31 and got beat next time out. :eek:
When a horse goes out alone like, it is not usually a sign of greatness, just opportunity.

I seriously doubt Mendy will run anything close that race ever again.

:cool:

[AskinHaskin]

LoneF gives you a hard time, but no one else does.


This why Mendelssohn won't be overbet,



Yeah, and maybe NBC will do a tear-jerker story about the sentiment behind Aidan O'Brien's only previous graded stakes win on dirt in America having come with Mendelssohn's grandfather. (despite O'Brien's having bombed in that pursuit during every year since, save the one that he skipped)

[CincyHorseplayer]

The shit talk and emotion have been fun on all these TC threads but why do good players, self included get drawn into this emotion over a single race once a year?! The posters that show up here around late April just absolutely spewing their emotion, hatred, grandiosity, they really cannot play this game much. Loving or hating a horse's chances is so out of whack with the daily/yearly task of trying to maintain an edge that taking it seriously is the flaw! Fun though! We got just shy of 30 races at CD this Friday-Saturday. With as competitive as I believe the Derby is this year and it being 10f and 3yo it might be the worst actual in race betting race. Unless it is your crucifix. Nailed to that shit and living and dying by it! Go for it man. I'm betting something else. I don't need to tell it to ya 1,000 times in the 2 weeks leading up to the race! If you are taking no less than 5-1 you are in my camp. I will play different in P3-4's. I know it won't be Justify in race but A tickets across as an include. The only 3 worth left betting for me is Bolt, Mendy, or Audible. I think Audible will be the one taking more money than we think because of the Pletcher factor. The other two because of the trainers will take less money. It's funny to hear Lone F and Co rail against Baffert and the supposed worshipping clan then turn around and Justify his choices with trainer breakdown! Long story short real horseplayers don't Peter Puff while doing pushups in the pickle patch. We don't worship trainers or get mad at them or get emotional about bets. Even the 1 race of the year Kentucky Derby. At the 16th pole maybe!:cool:

[clicknow]

The shit talk and emotion have been fun on all these TC threads but why do good players, self included get drawn into this emotion over a single race once a year?! The posters that show up here around late April just absolutely spewing their emotion, hatred, grandiosity, they really cannot play this game much. Loving or hating a horse's chances is so out of whack with the daily/yearly task of trying to maintain an edge that taking it seriously is the flaw! Fun though! We got just shy of 30 races at CD this Friday-Saturday. With as competitive as I believe the Derby is this year and it being 10f and 3yo it might be the worst actual in race betting race. Unless it is your crucifix. Nailed to that shit and living and dying by it! Go for it man. I'm betting something else. I don't need to tell it to ya 1,000 times in the 2 weeks leading up to the race! If you are taking no less than 5-1 you are in my camp. I will play different in P3-4's. I know it won't be Justify in race but A tickets across as an include. The only 3 worth left betting for me is Bolt, Mendy, or Audible. I think Audible will be the one taking more money than we think because of the Pletcher factor. The other two because of the trainers will take less money. It's funny to hear Lone F and Co rail against Baffert and the supposed worshipping clan then turn around and Justify his choices with trainer breakdown! Long story short real horseplayers don't Peter Puff while doing pushups in the pickle patch. We don't worship trainers or get mad at them or get emotional about bets. Even the 1 race of the year Kentucky Derby. At the 16th pole maybe!:cool:

I spend about a week learning about all the horses in this race. I enjoy "the puzzle". After that part is over, I hardly even care to make a wager. I just enjoy the analyzing part and mostly reading other's perceptions....often very different from what I see, but that is always instructive.

It's different with horses like Gun Runner, who I've watched develop over the years and become a champ. I usually don't get emotionally invested in horses who don't run til at least 5 years old.....and the trainers who race them like that....patiently and lovingly.

In the Derby I try to make a wager that qualifies as "bet a little, win a lot". It's the one time I get a little crazy with my choices, since it's a chaos race.

[chiguy]

It is all in good fun. The last horse I got emotional about was Silver Charm. Just loved that guy and the guts he showed. I agree that in the Derby you have to take shot. I will not be playing Justify, Audible or Mendy except in the PK4. Across the board on :20: and :9:. I do have to say there is a picture of Mendy on the Blood Horse today and he does look the part. Beautiful animal.

[CincyHorseplayer]

It is all in good fun. The last horse I got emotional about was Silver Charm. Just loved that guy and the guts he showed. I agree that in the Derby you have to take shot. I will not be playing Justify, Audible or Mendy except in the PK4. Across the board on :20: and :9:. I do have to say there is a picture of Mendy on the Blood Horse today and he does look the part. Beautiful animal.

Looking at the TVG profile of Mendy wow! He looks like a beast! You're right beautiful.

[jb729]

I was eagerly awaiting Mendy's first appearance at Churchill today.

I was not impressed with his mannerisms. It's JMO, but he looks like a stressed out horse.

Travel just wipes these animals out.

[GMB@BP]

I was eagerly awaiting Mendy's first appearance at Churchill today.

I was not impressed with his mannerisms. It's JMO, but he looks like a stressed out horse.

Travel just wipes these animals out.

How does he normally act? Tell me when a horse does something contradictory to his normal behavior.

This horse has been shipping around since the day he was born pretty much.

[jb729]

How does he normally act? Tell me when a horse does something contradictory to his normal behavior.

This horse has been shipping around since the day he was born pretty much.


I've talked to someone in the UK who has seen him and he said he has never seen him like this.

After a travel and quarantine this is a major red flag. Just because they handled it in the past, doesn't mean they will handle it every time. This is a stressed out horse. He looks lighter to me than he did in Dubai too.

[GMB@BP]

I've talked to someone in the UK who has seen him and he said he has never seen him like this.

After a travel and quarantine this is a major red flag. Just because they handled it in the past, doesn't mean they will handle it every time. This is a stressed out horse. He looks lighter to me than he did in Dubai too.

ok, its not easy shipping around.

There used to be a horse, Sky Beauty, worst shipper ever, Would fall apart, lose weight, etc. Ran like it to.

[clicknow]

I've talked to someone in the UK who has seen him and he said he has never seen him like this.

After a travel and quarantine this is a major red flag. Just because they handled it in the past, doesn't mean they will handle it every time. This is a stressed out horse. He looks lighter to me than he did in Dubai too.

I have to see the horse for myself. In the AR Derby I thought Solomini looked awful in the post parade, so much so i had to double-check my program, as I expected a Baffert horse to look grand. I was surprised he ran 3rd.

will watch the videos now.

[jb729]

I have to see the horse for myself. In the AR Derby I thought Solomini looked awful in the post parade, so much so i had to double-check my program, as I expected a Baffert horse to look grand. I was surprised he ran 3rd.

will watch the videos now.


I'd trust a horse that looks awful in the post parade more than I would trust a horse that looks awful 2-3 days before a race. The stress a few days before a race will cause them to lose weight and will weaken them.

[clicknow]

flying is bad for hydration levels....so they over hydrate, just as a human would while flying, because research shows that spending just 6 hours on a plane, leads to a significant decrease in hydration status. When you get off you're going to sweat all that out. It's very different from being "washy".

The video looks like he's ready to go, ears forward, composed, and full of himself at the end there, ready to go, tired of being sendentary. I was almost wishing the race was in the next hour. :)

I actually mix pedialite in my water when flying, to combat the arid conditions of pressurized cabin. YOu can't get enough hydration while flying, IMHO. I'm sure Mendy was urinating and sweating quite a lot after that VERY LONG plane ride.

[PaceMasterT]

flying is bad for hydration levels....so they over hydrate, just as a human would while flying, because research shows that spending just 6 hours on a plane, leads to a significant decrease in hydration status. When you get off you're going to sweat all that out. It's very different from being "washy".

The video looks like he's ready to go, ears forward, composed, and full of himself at the end there, ready to go, tired of being sendentary. I was almost wishing the race was in the next hour. :)

I actually mix pedialite in my water when flying, to combat the arid conditions of pressurized cabin. YOu can't get enough hydration while flying, IMHO. I'm sure Mendy was urinating and sweating quite a lot after that VERY LONG plane ride.

"You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink." :D

[PoloUK6108]

I spend about a week learning about all the horses in this race. I enjoy "the puzzle". After that part is over, I hardly even care to make a wager. I just enjoy the analyzing part and mostly reading other's perceptions....often very different from what I see, but that is always instructive.

It's different with horses like Gun Runner, who I've watched develop over the years and become a champ. I usually don't get emotionally invested in horses who don't run til at least 5 years old.....and the trainers who race them like that....patiently and lovingly.

In the Derby I try to make a wager that qualifies as "bet a little, win a lot". It's the one time I get a little crazy with my choices, since it's a chaos race.

Spot on my friend. Gun Runner was my Derby horse from Fairgrounds on and the ride to the wire in the Pegasus was spectacular. He was my guy.

Each year I find a new one to latch on to. Luckily this year I landed on Good Magic when he saved my whole BC Saturday. I will follow him til retirement.

For instance, I'm rooting for Hence (my 2017 pick) tomorrow to pull the upset in the Alysheba. And I pull for Mubtaahij every race he runs..my pick to beat American Pharoah.

I play the races every weekend, but I stay loyal to my Derby picks. Just another part of this wonderful game.

Go Good Magic!

[GMB@BP]

Has Rayya finished yet?

[jay68802]

Has Rayya finished yet?

yes, at 6:32 pm.

[GMB@BP]

yes, at 6:32 pm.

well she should have been very comfortable,was an inside speed track.

[jay68802]

well she should have been very comfortable,was an inside speed track.

Blew by the maintenance crew in the final quarter.

[098poi]

Blew by the maintenance crew in the final quarter.


I wish all horses well but this is funny!!

[dballard125]

He won’t be in my Top 3 but wish everyone good luck tomorrow.

[jay68802]

He won’t be in my Top 3 but wish everyone good luck tomorrow.

:ThmbUp:

[GMB@BP]

Another horse we can get a gauge on for Mendelssohn runs in the Pat Day, Seahenge, his stablemate and who has been a few lengths off him in a couple races. He got buried as well in that Dubai dirt race, could not make the lead and it was Kaput with the gold rail.

[CincyHorseplayer]

My early love and the Thorograph -4 is killing me about this horse!

Really considering main tickets to Bolt, Audible, and Vino. It will be dogshit payoffs anyway elsewhere unless a bomber. Today was decent but sterile payoffs. Only the yearlings think all Derby payoffs are golden.

[depalma113]

I have nothing against Mendelssohn at all. I think he is a decent horse who can win against the right field. I don't believe this is the right field though.

Last year he was their BC Juvenile dirt horse and than at the last minute they decided it was better to put him on the turf because he had been a disappointment up until that point. He needed a grade one win and they thought the best chance was in the BC Juvenile Turf. They were not willing to face American dirt horses with an American dirt pedigree and that is what bothers me about this horse. The connections had no faith in him last fall.

Next he shows up in Dubai and runs away from the field. Suddenly he's a monster on dirt without any perspective at all. Some of the best handicappers in the business are ignoring the bias and they are ignoring the horses that ran behind him.

The Beyer guys give him a 106. That screams Sinister Minister.

One trick I learned about big Beyers earned in a blowout win, on a speed favoring track, is that if you cut the lengths of win in half and subtract it from the Beyer, you get a truer number. That puts Mendelssohn at a 97. A 97 is average with this bunch.

At 25-1, I'm all in on this horse, at 5-1 I don't want average.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I have nothing against Mendelssohn at all. I think he is a decent horse who can win against the right field. I don't believe this is the right field though.

Last year he was their BC Juvenile dirt horse and than at the last minute they decided it was better to put him on the turf because he had been a disappointment up until that point. He needed a grade one win and they thought the best chance was in the BC Juvenile Turf. They were not willing to face American dirt horses with an American dirt pedigree and that is what bothers me about this horse. The connections had no faith in him last fall.

Next he shows up in Dubai and runs away from the field. Suddenly he's a monster on dirt without any perspective at all. Some of the best handicappers in the business are ignoring the bias and they are ignoring the horses that ran behind him.

The Beyer guys give him a 106. That screams Sinister Minister.

One trick I learned about big Beyers earned in a blowout win, on a speed favoring track, is that if you cut the lengths of win in half and subtract it from the Beyer, you get a truer number. That puts Mendelssohn at a 97. A 97 is average with this bunch.

At 25-1, I'm all in on this horse, at 5-1 I don't want average.

Very well said Depalma. There is so much beastly about this horse IMO. But so much that reeks of falsehood.

[Afleet]

If I owned Mendelssohn I would scratch. If I owned any horse in any of the remaining races I would scratch

[BlueChip@DRF]

I have nothing against Mendelssohn at all. I think he is a decent horse who can win against the right field. I don't believe this is the right field though.

Last year he was their BC Juvenile dirt horse and than at the last minute they decided it was better to put him on the turf because he had been a disappointment up until that point. He needed a grade one win and they thought the best chance was in the BC Juvenile Turf. They were not willing to face American dirt horses with an American dirt pedigree and that is what bothers me about this horse. The connections had no faith in him last fall.

Next he shows up in Dubai and runs away from the field. Suddenly he's a monster on dirt without any perspective at all. Some of the best handicappers in the business are ignoring the bias and they are ignoring the horses that ran behind him.

The Beyer guys give him a 106. That screams Sinister Minister.

One trick I learned about big Beyers earned in a blowout win, on a speed favoring track, is that if you cut the lengths of win in half and subtract it from the Beyer, you get a truer number. That puts Mendelssohn at a 97. A 97 is average with this bunch.

At 25-1, I'm all in on this horse, at 5-1 I don't want average.

I think Mendelssohn ran great! It took the entire field to beat him!