Bridge Jumping

[arw629]

I’m thinking about getting into bridge jumping. Well...mini bridge jumping $500 or $1000 at a time. Does anyone on the board do it? Anyone attempt it?

[thaskalos]

Do you know any bridge-jumpers who have prospered in their craft?

[sour grapes]

why risk 1k to make 50 bucks,you are better trying to find a vulnerable heavy favorite and placing a couple of show bets on other horses and trying to catch 50 buck show price for 2 bucks.to each their own but i never thought risking 10k to make 500 was the way to riches.

[jay68802]

$500.00 show bet. Each wining bet makes $50.00. Do that 10 times and you have doubled your money. 1 $500.00 win bet on a horse that pays $4.00, same thing, you have doubled your money. Which is easier, being right 1 time in a row, or 10 times in a row?

[Hobbes]

I've looked into it, but don't have enough historical data yet on North American Pools to validate that it works in the long run. Sometimes the bridge jumpers commit to a bet very early, but more often you see wagers flooding in at the last minute, which makes piggybacking on that information difficult to execute.

If you are familiar with python I have some scripts for automating minus pool alerts here: https://github.com/pschubert24/minus_pool_alert

Scripts are kind of a work in progress. I haven't gotten around to fixing some issues with them.

[Clocker]

$500.00 show bet. Each wining bet makes $50.00.

$25.00 at a track with nickel breakage. I don't know how many tracks use nickel vs. dime. I do know many ADWs will not allow such bets without a similar win bet at the same time. I know mine doesn't allow it. What are the expenses in getting to a track to win that $25.00 or $50.00?

[RunForTheRoses]

When i worked as a teller years ago there was a guy who built up a pretty good stake. He came up to me with a bag of money in the wrappers telling me dont break the wrappers ill be back after the race. He did win that time on good socal sprinter Kona Gold. He later lost a bundle when Gentleman ran out in a small field.

Good luck, let us know how it goes.

[acorn54]

i strongly suggest seeking counseling and a visit to gambler's anonymous, with an open mind, before striking out on such an endeavor.

[johnhenry81]

Don't do it. Why? Because you'll lose.
If you just like playing horses, be a $5 bettor, and put your $1000 into a utility stock.

jh

[pandy]

Bridge jumping is the worst way to bet chalk. If you want to cash tickets, and still have a fighting chance of not losing, you'd be better off trying to find two or three solid favorites and betting a two-horse place parlay, or a three-horse show parlay.

[Dave Schwartz]

Be aware that ADWs take a lot of heat from tracks when there are giant show bets into "minus" pools.

Unless things have changed your ADW eventually will warn you or just fire you as a customer.

[green80]

$25.00 at a track with nickel breakage. I don't know how many tracks use nickel vs. dime. I do know many ADWs will not allow such bets without a similar win bet at the same time. I know mine doesn't allow it. What are the expenses in getting to a track to win that $25.00 or $50.00?

The only time I have seen when the ADW's didn't like big show bets is when they were bet into a negative pool. Most other times they welcome all the show bets that they can get.

[green80]

Be aware that ADWs take a lot of heat from tracks when there are giant show bets into "minus" pools.

Unless things have changed your ADW eventually will warn you or just fire you as a customer.

What if you are betting on another horse? (not the one that causes the minus pool)

[jay68802]

A friend of mine put in a conditional wager at 8/5 for $500.00 to WPS on a race at the Fairgrounds. He placed the wager at 8:00 am before he flew to Dallas for a meeting. The next day when he got to the track, he was looking to see if his wager had gone through, and if it did, had it won. The wager went through, the horse won. But in the last dump, some very large wagers had come in and the horse ended up being 1/2. The large wagers had created a minus show pool. He had a e-mail threatening to close his account for betting into a minus pool. He got a little steamed about that e-mail.

[Mdnspecialist]

Bet against bridge jumpers. A majority of bridge jumping races are six horse fields. If you bet the other five horses to show. Your risking less than six bucks to possibly win 40-80 dollars. Some bridge jumping races do have mini jumpers. Only 70% of the pool is bet on one horse. Those can be bet against also. Why risk 1000 bucks to profit 50 bucks? You'd have to win 20 straight to cover one loss. That's no way to win in the long run. Bet small against to win larger amounts.

[Dave Schwartz]

What if you are betting on another horse? (not the one that causes the minus pool)

No problem with that. What tracks object to is the exploitation of the $1.85 payoff becoming $2.10 at there expense.

Remember that a $216 place or show pay includes the track getting their cut first.

And, to be clear, the ADWs themselves wouldn't care if they weren't pressured from the tracks.

Truthfully, I can't blame them for this.

About 45 years ago I had a friend who was like 5'4" and weighed about 375. As you can imagine, he loved all-you-can-eat buffets, although there weren't very many back then.

Anyway, he invited me for lunch at his new favorite, Chinese AYCE place. When we walked in, the manager glared at us. By the time we'd eaten two plates, he told me that he'd been eating here every day for about a week.

I was full but Greg kept eating. Finally, about 45 minutes in, the manager came over and picked up Greg's plate, saying, "You have enough. You go know!" in a somewhat Charlie Chan-like accent.

I was pretty much humiliated but for Greg it was just another blown restaurant. I vowed never to experience that again.

PS: Greg did not live to 40.



This is how the tracks feel about minus pools.

:-)


Dave

[Clocker]

This is how the tracks feel about minus pools.

:-)


Dave

But they aren't nearly that polite about it. :p

[arw629]

Isn’t it all about value? I bet a lot of MNR and the fact that the minimum payout is ten cents on the dollar compared to the standard nickel on the dollar I can find a lot of value. If I handicap a horse in a certain race to run in the money 49 out of 50 times isn’t getting ten cents on the dollar a giant overlay?

[thaskalos]

Isn’t it all about value? I bet a lot of MNR and the fact that the minimum payout is ten cents on the dollar compared to the standard nickel on the dollar I can find a lot of value. If I handicap a horse in a certain race to run in the money 49 out of 50 times isn’t getting ten cents on the dollar a giant overlay?

If you can indeed find horses who finish in the money 49 times out of 50...then, what kind of "encouragement" are you seeking from us? Your success is assured!

[Robert Fischer]

There are more fun :cool: ways to spend your last days if you are dead-set on eventually jumping off a bridge.

Bridge Jumping is a bit like martingale and others that increase your short-term chances and also your long-term loss.

Long-term it's no easier than any other way of betting. You still have to be a tremendous horseplayer to keep your head above water. Unfortunately there is no shortcut that let's you skip over the part about betting overlays and passing underlays.

If you are trying to win meaningful amounts, you also have to risk relatively large amounts with this strategy. If you do lose a race, you will have to take a significant loss, or 'chase' (a road to hell with increasing amounts to 'recoup' your losses).


A friend of mine put in a conditional wager at 8/5 for $500.00 to WPS on a race at the Fairgrounds. He placed the wager at 8:00 am before he flew to Dallas for a meeting. The next day when he got to the track, he was looking to see if his wager had gone through, and if it did, had it won. The wager went through, the horse won. But in the last dump, some very large wagers had come in and the horse ended up being 1/2. The large wagers had created a minus show pool. He had a e-mail threatening to close his account for betting into a minus pool. He got a little steamed about that e-mail.

and yes ADWs will shut you down

I made a very modest profit with a series of relatively small (ranging from several hundred to a couple thousand dollars) spot-play wagers on certain negative pool opportunities, and one of my ADWs quickly sent me a cease and desist letter.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/2zofzw9.jpg

[arw629]

If you can indeed find horses who finish in the money 49 times out of 50...then, what kind of "encouragement" are you seeking from us? Your success is assured!

10 out of 11 ?

[davew]

10 out of 11 ?

20 out of 21?

Didn't Beyer have an article about getting kicked off an ADW because of his show bets?

[Pensacola Pete]

If you're going to bridge jump (not recommended), confine it to West Virginia and other states that have a mandatory 10 cent per dollar payout.

[Pensacola Pete]

And, to be clear, the ADWs themselves wouldn't care if they weren't pressured from the tracks.



I thought they got stuck with the loss via net pool pricing. I know that AmWager doesn't allow show wagering on some races that it can be found elsewhere.

[davew]

I thought they got stuck with the loss via net pool pricing. I know that AmWager doesn't allow show wagering on some races that it can be found elsewhere.

I don't think they allow show from Charlestown on any races.