PPs: Arkansas Derby G1

[Blenheim]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

:ThmbUp:

[boys at tosconova]

first thoughts..cursory glance:

4 horse race.

bottom 4 do look better than most of the bottom half in the other two preps last weekend though.

moreso it's because you don't know if they can do it or not. so i guess that makes them more possible becuse of it, even though they have knocks

[LoneF]

Justify is the current derby favorite.

IF tenfold wins the Arkansas Derby than both he and Justify would be unraced at 2 years old and 3 for 3. The only difference would be that tenfolds signature win would have been in a much tougher race than Justify . I think we can all agree that the Arkansas race came up much tougher than the Santa Anita derby.

Does that mean that tenfold would become the new derby favorite ??? And if not, than why not ?

[clicknow]

We're supposed to have severe thunderstorms on Friday night here in hot springs starting in the early evening, should taper off by about 4a.m. Sat morning. Usually a lot of lightning and thunderbangers. Weather on Sat is partly cloudy, they are saying 57 degrees but I'm gonna guess higher. It was 70-75 here today. Dunno how much the track will dry out but I don't expect it to be bone dry, of course they will seal the track.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Combatant is a poor man's Flameaway and needs a top 3 finish to make the gate.

[boys at tosconova]

Combatant is a poor man's Flameaway and needs a top 3 finish to make the gate.


draws outside again w/ speed directly indside him. looks like an equally tough spot but not out of the question.

really interested on how quip performs in here. if i had to guess i think he'll come up short. he just needs to get faster, which he's capable of though.

the 6 looks tough imo if he can keep the upswing going..

[clicknow]

poor machismo -- back in 7.

[PaceAdvantage]

poor machismo -- back in 7.:lol:

[f2tornado]

poor machismo -- back in 7.

Years back that was a strong betting angle, but perhaps applied more to the claiming ranks.

I figure it's the Moon and Solo unless Quip can step up from his relatively soft last out Equibase figure.

At first glance, box the :5::6: chalk then throw the :3::8::9: underneath. Add the :2::4: on bottom of dime play.

[minethatbird08]

Years back that was a strong betting angle, but perhaps applied more to the claiming ranks.



I remember Dutrow winning the Kings Bishop with Willy Beamin on 7 days, I think he cut back from 8.5 too. Unfortunately I didn't pull the trigger on that one. That situation was different too because the horse had done it earlier and had like 4 wins in a row at that point.

[Immortal6]

Will go contrarian and box the :4: with the :5::6::8:

Dream Baby Dream is the only horse besides Machismo who has ran 9F. He closed well off a fast pace in the Sunland and will have a shot to win should the above three not run their "A" race. Hoping he will go off at least a little above his ML of 15-1.

[Robert Fischer]

2 fairly solid favorites.

You could play the 'Solomini-to-win' game. I think it's tempting, but he is a flawed race horse. Do you really want to try to be that precise in value with a tough situation like this?

Magnum Moon proved he belonged in the Rebel. Is he up for some adversity with a faster pace, and with Solomini running a few lengths better? Will that bring out the best or will it be harder on Magnum Moon?

Quip seems extremely overrated at this stage. He's contended 3 times, near or on 3 speed-favoring slow paces while never flashing exceptional talent. Really fortuitous in the Tampa Derby. He's not a bad horse, but his value was ripe in Tampa and now you are paying ripe prices for an overripe fruit. First real value opinion.

Combatant/Santana finally get a chance to run 'E/P' instead of 'P' today (he had to concede some forward position each of the last two races due to drawing wide, but has a longer run to the first turn here). If he hadn't hung late in his otherwise strong Rebel Stakes, he'd have to be respected as a top tier contender. No real value opinion. He's obvious to include.

Machismo is interesting if he is not scratched. His value is ripe for this race. The public does not see that he will hit the board. Could be 50-1 in the win pool and excluded from a lot of vertical exotic tickets. He looks like a 'key' for all four superfecta slots.

Tenfold faces a real class test. On paper he looks like a silly 'reach'. But on video replay - he's been somewhat visually impressive. Appears to be out-gunned. If ridden to win, I'd guess he'll get used up and passed by late runners. Somewhat interesting prospect. IF you love him, by all means this is a price. I'll toss in most spots.

[jay68802]

Interesting race, but not for betting, will probably pass.

:1: Beautiful Shot 30-1 Moving up in class and adding distance when he has proved already that 7f might be his limit. Out.

:2: Machismo 20-1 Will he run? Wanted to do nothing in the last and may have proved that he needs everything his way to run. If he runs he adds a pace presence if he is quick enough, which is in doubt. Not today.

:3: Tenfold 10-1 2 for 2 at the track, and proved he is better than the :7:, but that's not saying much. Class test for sure, could be used underneath in the super.

:4: Dream Baby Dream 15-1 Like this one, has shown he is not a quitter, and just keeps hitting the board. Got to be in a tri.

:5: Solomini 2-1 Good horse but has looked horrible in the stretch. Figures say you have to include, but to risk a win bet on him is not a option.

:6: Magnum Moon 8-5 ML favorite and has impressed. Is going to see a faster pace than he is used to. Runs his race and could be the best. My pick, but at 6-5?, no thanks.

:7: Plainsman 30-1 Not sure why he is here, can't beat N1X horses and looks to be too slow. Out.

:8: Quip 9-2 Ran away from a larger field to come here. Not a fan of connections ducking competition for a "Derby" horse. Is probably ready to run but has competition for the front spot.

:9: Combatant 6-1 Another one that likes to hit the board and may do so again. Underneath.

[Tom]

Justify is the current derby favorite.

IF tenfold wins the Arkansas Derby than both he and Justify would be unraced at 2 years old and 3 for 3. The only difference would be that tenfolds signature win would have been in a much tougher race than Justify . I think we can all agree that the Arkansas race came up much tougher than the Santa Anita derby.

Does that mean that tenfold would become the new derby favorite ??? And if not, than why not ?

Disagree with your premise that the SA Derby was not the better race.

What odds would Bolt D'oro be this Saturday?

[clicknow]

Years back that was a strong betting angle, but perhaps applied more to the claiming ranks.

I still use it. Used it today at Oaklawn as a matter of fact and it worked well in 3 races.

Hopefully Maschismo doesn't have to run all out and end up 3rd or 4th. Maybe he came out of the Bluegrass full of energy.

[GMB@BP]

I think we can all agree that the Arkansas race came up much tougher than the Santa Anita derby.



Sorry just dont agree

Timeform figures for the top 3 betting choices before the SA Derby

125 131
123 125
118 120

Ark Derby

115 112 tenfold
122 119 solomini
118 112 magnum moon
115 112 combatant

These are multiple races so not just some random good race

I am projecting a forward move from magnum moon but to me one race looks much stronger, and after the race we can add the new figures and compare.

I do agree Tenfold is on the same rush program that Justify is, obviously a talented horse.

[Robert Fischer]

hey... if Tenfold runs a 107BSF/132TFUS I'll bet him in the Derby too. :pound:

[boys at tosconova]

really hard to look past the 5 and 6.

solomini and magnum moon.

what i like about solomini is that he won't be even money this week and in all four of his 2yr races he got better in each one. don;t know how much he'll take but it's hard to think he'll even be any value as the 2nd choice either

he wanted to run faster in the rebel but was caught inside in his first race back in over 90 days. he still outfinished combatant as well. no doubt he will much tighter. would not be sursprised to see him on the engine early as well.

as for MM. he ran a race better than the program indicated. he raced wide throughout and drew off late.

[ubercapper]

I am taking a stand with Tenfold as he's on a pattern to really jump up, although he will need to.

At the least if he splits Magnum Moon & Solomini that makes for a decent profit. The Arkansas Derby is a race I published analysis for (free) here https://www.keenelandselect.com/blogs/ksblogger/2018/04/13/keeneland-select-bonus-pick-day-april-14-2018

[lamboguy]

wow! the Kentucky Derby winner almost has to come out of this loaded up field.

i am going to have to go with TENFOLD, and hope he progressed after the maiden win in Oaklawn.

[SecretAgentMan]

Magnum Moon is the one to beat, & only horse that's scary is Tenfold. Asmussen has 4 horses in this race, Tenfold scares me.

Solomini doesn't scare me at all. I can see him coming along for 3rd & getting enough points to get into the derby.

IMO, its between Magnum Moon & Tenfold.

[Buckeye]

Can I bet Rockamundo again?

But seriously, Magnum Moon should win here.

If not, my second choice is Quip-- these Tampa Bay horses demand respect.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Tough race to bet.

Solomini has been a nice gauge for this year's 3YO crop, and is unplayable to me at a short price cause he just doesn't win.. Magnum Moon could easily romp by 4 or more in here. Hard to really see anything else unless I want to stab at Tenfold.

Maybe the play is a bomber for show that might pay $8.20 as a number of horses should be folding up shop late to save for a better day. Then again, best move is likely to sit and watch Magnum Moon and see if he'll challenge Justify for Derby favoritism?

[SecretAgentMan]

Tough race to bet.

Solomini has been a nice gauge for this year's 3YO crop, and is unplayable to me at a short price cause he just doesn't win.. Magnum Moon could easily romp by 4 or more in here. Hard to really see anything else unless I want to stab at Tenfold.

Maybe the play is a bomber for show that might pay $8.20 as a number of horses should be folding up shop late to save for a better day. Then again, best move is likely to sit and watch Magnum Moon and see if he'll challenge Justify for Derby favoritism?



If Magnum.Moon wins, you may be right about him challenging Justify for being the favorite on derby day.

[GMB@BP]

If Magnum.Moon wins, you may be right about him challenging Justify for being the favorite on derby day.

agree, something like 3/1 and 7/2, of course its actually a deep field, could be a bit higher like 4/1 and 9/2.

[Immortal6]

Taking another look at pps and rewatching Magnum Moon's last race, who in here can really challenge him if he is tuned up and ready to run. Changing my wager here to key him over top the Asmussen entries in 2nd, gotta throw in Solomini to the third spot as he will refuse to change leads in the stretch but likely clunk up for a piece. Don't usually like betting back Tampa horses but Quip needs to be included underneath as well.

:6:/:3::4::9:/:3::4::5::8::9: ($6 .50 tri)

Still like Dream Baby Dream here and will place small win wager on him as I think he will benefit most if there's a pace melt down. The :3: would need to take a big step up to win, but it isn't completely out of the question. Look forward to the race, but I'm really rooting for Magnum Moon to win by open lengths just to throw another wrinkle into what is already a very deep Derby field.

[f2tornado]

Primary bet is a :6:/:5:/:8::9:/:3::8::9: superfecta wager. I reversed the top two on other wagers.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If you believe in the form cycle of Good Magic, don't you believe Solomini is going to run a bang up race? Magnum ran one of the better preps this season. Really excited to see what he has in the tank. His 221 Route ranking in a sprint hasn't been duplicated but he can do it in his 3rd route. The race itself will probably unbettable. But if I even get 7/2 on Solomini I am betting. Good luck boys!

[boys at tosconova]

only horse that can beat MM is solomini.

solomini should not be worst than 3rd in this race either. they didn't even let the horse run last time. if there ever was a time to let it out a notch it's here

pray they run away and hide and a non figure horse finishes 3rd

6/5/all
6/all/5
5/6/all

[PhantomOnTour]

Prat will put Solomini on the lead and try to take them all the way. Quip is the only one who can deny him the lead.
Baffert will have him ready...can I get 3-1 odds??

[Robert Fischer]

about 9/5

If you believe in the form cycle of Good Magic, don't you believe Solomini is going to run a bang up race? Magnum ran one of the better preps this season. Really excited to see what he has in the tank. His 221 Route ranking in a sprint hasn't been duplicated but he can do it in his 3rd route. The race itself will probably unbettable. But if I even get 7/2 on Solomini I am betting. Good luck boys!



Prat will put Solomini on the lead and try to take them all the way. Quip is the only one who can deny him the lead.
Baffert will have him ready...can I get 3-1 odds??

[f2tornado]

If you believe in the form cycle of Good Magic, don't you believe Solomini is going to run a bang up race? Magnum ran one of the better preps this season. Really excited to see what he has in the tank. His 221 Route ranking in a sprint hasn't been duplicated but he can do it in his 3rd route. The race itself will probably unbettable. But if I even get 7/2 on Solomini I am betting. Good luck boys!

I agree and I am playing both chalks on top of the gimmicks. More using the Moon than the Solo, however.

[Tom]

TVG idiots keep switching OP from TVG to TVG2.:ThmbDown:

[CincyHorseplayer]

TVG idiots keep switching OP from TVG to TVG2.:ThmbDown:

You have to realize. They slob some serious knob. They might even have oral lubricity problems they suck so hard. As a fellow player I hear ya!

[GMB@BP]

Very talented horse.

Older horses went 1.6 seconds faster though, but they are legit Grade 1 older horses.

[SecretAgentMan]

Very talented horse.

Older horses went 1.6 seconds faster though, but they are legit Grade 1 older horses.




I expect older horses to got a bit faster.

[GMB@BP]

I expect older horses to got a bit faster.

Thats a pretty big difference though...will see what the figures come back.

[Secondbest]

I could be wrong but hasnt the favorite won every derby prep this year?

[SecretAgentMan]

I could be wrong but hasnt the favorite won every derby prep this year?



No

[GMB@BP]

I could be wrong but hasnt the favorite won every derby prep this year?

Been pretty chalky, Risen Star, Bob Lewis come to mind.

[SecretAgentMan]

Thats a pretty big difference though...will see what the figures come back.



Magnum Moon & Justify are co favorites. A few other horses like the UAE horse will get serious action.

I think you will see 4-1 on Justify or 9-2

[GMB@BP]

Magnum Moon & Justify are co favorites. A few other horses like the UAE horse will get serious action.

I think you will see 4-1 on Justify or 9-2

I think its 5/2 Justify
Magnum Moon 4/1
Audible 5/1
Mendelsohn 7/1
Bolt 7/1

pretty big drop off after those 5 in my opinion in the odds, but as a top 5 goes thats real solid top 5

Deep derby field.

[f2tornado]

Final 3/8th in about 36.5?! Even slower pace through 6F than the Sana Anita but that’s hauling oats to the line.

[papillon]

Final 3/8th in about 36.5?! Even slower pace through 6F than the Sana Anita but that’s hauling oats to the line.


Slow is fast now.

[f2tornado]

Slow is fast now.

It seems that way for Santa Anita figure makers.

This splits in the Ark were interesting: 25.26, 24.79, 24.48, (11.99).

They got faster as the race got longer and I don't recall the last sub 12 second final panel in a 9F prep. Maybe Strike the Gold pulled it off.

[SecretAgentMan]

It seems that way for Santa Anita figure makers.

This splits in the Ark were interesting: 25.26, 24.79, 24.48, (11.99).

They got faster as the race got longer and I don't recall the last sub 12 second final panel in a 9F prep. Maybe Strike the Gold pulled it off.




Yes, MM finished fast!

[PowerUpPaynter]

https://twitter.com/pinfante97/status/985344287079530496

[Blenheim]

Nice piece of work by Pletcher gettin' all these horses to show up at the right time.

~

When you get a race shape that is Slow/Fast and the race is won by a front runner, the performance is not as good as it looks. Gotta get a good fix on the race shape as what appears to be fast really isn't. We're gettiin' a lot of them thare Slow/Slow, Slow/Average in these preps.

What's gonna happen to these types when the pace pressure is ramped up?

[PowerUpPaynter]

What's gonna happen to these types when the pace pressure is ramped up?

Bolt or Solomini comes charing home late?

[f2tornado]

I was wondering if we were going to see more Raise A Native fractions horses. This further complicates the already complicated wagering brainstorm. Recall last year RAN swept the board. RAN swept in 2012 as well. Fast closing RAN horses have historically done very well in the Derby.

[Blenheim]

Bolt or Solomini comes charing home late?

IMO, I think the time is past or passing where we see the early developing two-year-olds dominating the Derby. I think we've seen evidence of that passing in these preps.

In my early Derby PPs I put a line through Bolt and Solomini along w/the 0/51ers and the BC Hex. It's kind of interesting trying to handicap the race considering the evolution of type.

[GMB@BP]

Final 3/8th in about 36.5?! Even slower pace through 6F than the Sana Anita but that’s hauling oats to the line.

Its amazing how fast you can finish when you go that slow early.

[PowerUpPaynter]

IMO, I think the time is past or passing where we see the early developing two-year-olds dominating the Derby. I think we've seen evidence of that passing in these preps.

In my early Derby PPs I put a line through Bolt and Solomini along w/the 0/51ers and the BC Hex. It's kind of interesting trying to handicap the race considering the evolution of type.

so you scratch the Storm Cats but are OK with the Apollo Curse horses? just curious.

[Blenheim]

so you scratch the Storm Cats but are OK with the Apollo Curse horses? just curious.

I got the early Derby PPs the other day. I've been working on them with a new perspective. This is my thinkin': I want my handicapping to evolve along with the evolving Derby type couple that w/trusting the "curse" percentages. Its still a work in progress, but I'm nearly there, not at all complicated. I'm thinking my thinking seems to fit, but to scratch some of those Dual Qualifiers has been hard for me to do; I'm not fully committed.

I've scratched the 0/51ers, the BC Juvenile winner, the precocious two-year-olds and at this point I've scratched all of the Apollo's except for Magnum Moon, as I still have yet to do some work on him.

[f2tornado]

Its amazing how fast you can finish when you go that slow early.

Yep. This was American Pharoah’s prep style, particularly the Rebel. He toyed early then romped. Closing fast at 9F suggests a fuel tank big enough to go 10 panels.

[f2tornado]

What's gonna happen to these types when the pace pressure is ramped up?

By who? Every American horse that secured a gate ran six panels last out in 1:11 plus.

[Blenheim]

By who? Every American horse that secured a gate ran six panels last out in 1:11 plus.


That wild card Coolmore horse, Mendelssohn.

No doubt he is a flight risk - are they gonna let him get loose? They can't allow that to happen, but Coolmore has to send, don't they? How much energy is he gonna expend to get the lead, should they allow him to get it? What role will he play in the shape of the race?

The tough part is, no running lines.

[f2tornado]

That wild card Coolmore horse, Mendelssohn...

The tough part is, no running lines.

He was not any faster than his American counterparts through 1200 meters (5.96F),hitting the pole in 1:11.87. Lots of Trakus data from Dubai. (http://www.dubairacingclub.com/race/racing-info/trakus-chart) There is no Danzing Candy this year unless a trainer wants to roll the dice.

[LoneF]

That wild card Coolmore horse, Mendelssohn.

No doubt he is a flight risk - are they gonna let him get loose? They can't allow that to happen, but Coolmore has to send, don't they? How much energy is he gonna expend to get the lead, should they allow him to get it? What role will he play in the shape of the race?

The tough part is, no running lines.

Ok for starters Mendelssohn won’t be on the lead. If Dale Romans accomplished anything in the Florida Derby it was letting everyone know Promises Fulifilled was going to be on the lead come hell or high water and he is willing to sacrifice his horse and horses like Strike Power that choose to challenge him upfront.

There is no other need the lead type in the field so nobody else is going to feel the need to tangle with Promises Fulfilled upfront. Mendelssohn was upfront in the UAE derby but usually he stalks. Promises Fulfilled might get a Fountain of Youth type pace scenario and when horses get nice easy uncontentested leads like that, they tend to get real brave ... I am not saying Promises Fulfilled is my top choice or even close to it but he is a intriguing long shot play if someone was looking to play a horse that figures to be a big price.

[boys at tosconova]

Its amazing how fast you can finish when you go that slow early.


http://www.anorak.co.uk/wp-content/gallery/joaquin-phoenix/1301884.jpg

[papillon]

Ok for starters Mendelssohn won’t be on the lead. If Dale Romans accomplished anything in the Florida Derby it was letting everyone know Promises Fulifilled was going to be on the lead come hell or high water and he is willing to sacrifice his horse and horses like Strike Power that choose to challenge him upfront.

There is no other need the lead type in the field so nobody else is going to feel the need to tangle with Promises Fulfilled upfront. Mendelssohn was upfront in the UAE derby but usually he stalks. Promises Fulfilled might get a Fountain of Youth type pace scenario and when horses get nice easy uncontentested leads like that, they tend to get real brave ... I am not saying Promises Fulfilled is my top choice or even close to it but he is a intriguing long shot play if someone was looking to play a horse that figures to be a big price.

I kind of thought Romans was deliberately putting on a speed display too, or at least testing how fast he could go for how long. I don't know, maybe he was trying to see how close he is to his papa, Shackleford (not very). Romans compared the two several times. The horse was already in, so as long as the effort didn't cook him, it shouldn't matter execpt...


that he is a Storm Cat, who lost his last prep, and crawled home, so on the curse bingo board that is :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbUp: for going to be completely ignored and :ThmbUp: for projected pace. The final box can't be checked until the post, but there isn't a shruging smiley

I don't know what Mendelssohn will do. Ryan Moore I think has decided you have to gun it out of the gate, but he'll be better than any other jockey, than perhaps Gronkowski's, at being able to run slow, finish fast. If people expect this year's derby to be run like a turf race, bet on one of best turf jockies in the world.

Mendelssohn's bingo card: Storm Cat, UAE Derby, Euro Jockey, Shipping, so :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbUp: for projected pace, final box unknown till post assignment.

whelp there you go

[Afleet]

Ok for starters Mendelssohn won’t be on the lead. If Dale Romans accomplished anything in the Florida Derby it was letting everyone know Promises Fulifilled was going to be on the lead come hell or high water and he is willing to sacrifice his horse and horses like Strike Power that choose to challenge him upfront.

There is no other need the lead type in the field so nobody else is going to feel the need to tangle with Promises Fulfilled upfront. Mendelssohn was upfront in the UAE derby but usually he stalks. Promises Fulfilled might get a Fountain of Youth type pace scenario and when horses get nice easy uncontentested leads like that, they tend to get real brave ... I am not saying Promises Fulfilled is my top choice or even close to it but he is a intriguing long shot play if someone was looking to play a horse that figures to be a big price.

Promises Fulfilled is a factor I will be using handicapping the race. I hope he runs and draws the 1 hole

[chiguy]

First off great call by Vic. Credit due. I thought Combatant ran very well versus a slow early pace. He could be one that "clunks" up to make it into the exacta, tri or super. Curious how outside rally types did on the day at Oaklawn.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Has anybody of note gone back and 're-timed' this race?

I have a serious problem believing they went out in :23 and change, then coasted to :50 and change, and then sprinted home in less than :37 including Magnum's 12 second final furlong in almost quarter horse style.

Watching the race, I definitely didn't feel like they were coasting that much in the middle.

If real, it is by far the toughest race to 'cap rolling into the Derby.