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View Full Version : If Mendelssohn is Bellamy Road, why isn't Justfy Materiality?


papillon
04-11-2018, 02:27 PM
Bellamy Road did occur to me after watching Mendelssohn's UAE derby, but Justify reminds me of Materiality, both career-wise and hype-wise.

Career-wise, Mendelssohn is much closer to his sire, and on firm ground, to his sister, than he is to Bellamy Road, who based on pps certainly deserved far less respect than Hansen, yet received considerably more:

2yrs old: maiden at Delaware Park, Stake at River Downs (?)

3yrs old: Allowance at Gulftream, Freak performance in Wood

and his pedigree...Has anyone ever heard of those horses? Hansen at least was a Tapit.

Career-wise, Justify is almost indistinguishable from Materiality but for trainer and track, yet is being called Point Given and American Pharoah. Point Given had won three stakes before winning the Santa Anita derby and was almost 2 yr old champ. American Pharoah crushed Materiality in the derby, who left injured and raced once more in his life. Maybe you could say Justify is the new Bodiemeister...who was defeated by stamina twice.

Is it not possible that Bolt D'oro is not as good as he is credited? He's no Nyquist, another dismissed horse. He's reminds me more of Classic Empire, than whatever great tgree year old stopped winning in September of his two year old campaign, just saying.

I'm agnostic as to which is more talented, Mendelssohn or Justify, and if either will have any impact on the derby, it just struck me as odd.

Promises Fullfilled has the look of this year's Songandaprayer. I admit to being partial to Mendelssohn, but because I loved his sister, she was my lady from her very first race. I'm also partial to Promises Fullfilled, though I think he's got less chance than a snow ball in hell, because I loved his papa--all grit, just a pure hard knocking race horse.

FWIW, Medelsohn has carried over 130 three times, 127 once, 126 twice, and a puny 122 in the BCJT. He was ok on Euro good turf (American soft turf), but a length better on American firm turf (=Euro rock hard turf) and firm all weather. Souped up or not, he was Beholder fast on a fast track.

When everyone questioned O'brien running US Navy Flag, a superior turf horse with a turf pedigree, in the BCJ and Mendelssohn, an ok turf horse with a dirt pedigree, in the BCJT, it made perfect sense to me. US Navy Flag was seen as the better horse and so the more likely of the two for the KY derby. He failed the test, while Mendelssohn passed the firm ground test.

Everyone questioned Ryan Moore continuing to urge him all the way down the lane. That made perfect sense to me too. The only way to test the legitmacy of an 18 length win is to test how much horse you still have, and the only way to do that without pressure from another horse is pressure from the jockey.

Neither Moore nor O'brien do things for poops and giggles.

anywho, just a few thoughts.

f2tornado
04-11-2018, 03:32 PM
If you believe certain figures, particularly Brisnet and TimeForm, than Justify's Santa Anita Derby was numerically one of the the best in recent history (http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/04/justifys-santa-anita-derby-win-fastest-kentucky-derby-points-performance-ever/). I don't see it that way and can agree to disagree with others. If you believe those figures and believe the horse won't bounce off them then he should be your bet. There are some parallels to Materiality in that both started as a three year old and both ran relatively slow raw times in the final 9F while achieving large speed figures. One difference is Justify and Bolt did run a fast the final three panels suggesting both could be in the mix in Kentucky.

Spalding No!
04-11-2018, 06:22 PM
Materiality missed the break in the Kentucky Derby and along with eventual Met Mile winner Frosted and Travers winner Keen Ice was one of only 3 horses to make up ground down the stretch. He passed 7 horses down the stretch.

boys at tosconova
04-11-2018, 06:22 PM
this comp does not work for me at all to even suggest a "what if" scenario to it

papillon
04-12-2018, 12:25 AM
I didn't really mean it it as a what if, just as a why not.

I've seen the Mendelssohn/Bellamy Road comparison, and agree that the thought crossed my mind too, but I was just curious why there were no comparisons of Justify to any of the other spring maiden/allowance/stakes shooting stars that don't pan out.

If you don't see any similarity, how so? Why is Justify not like Materiality or Verranzo etc? This just feels very wash rinse repeat to me.

Spalding No!
04-12-2018, 12:45 AM
I've seen the Mendelssohn/Bellamy Road comparison, and agree that the thought crossed my mind too, but I was just curious why there were no comparisons of Justify to any of the other spring maiden/allowance/stakes shooting stars that don't pan out.
There's an entire thread dedicated to Justify in the General Handicapping section. Plenty of comparisons there, starting the same day he broke his maiden.

Comparisons ranged anywhere from Curlin to Apollo to Bayern to Seattle Slew to Talkin Man, etc. etc.

Fred Mertz
04-12-2018, 12:50 AM
Comparisons ranged anywhere from Curlin to Apollo to Bayern to Seattle Slew to Talkin Man, etc. etc.

To me, he's like Big Brown, a late coming potential monster.

papillon
04-12-2018, 12:57 AM
There's an entire thread dedicated to Justify in the General Handicapping section. Plenty of comparisons there, starting the same day he broke his maiden.

Comparisons ranged anywhere from Curlin to Apollo to Bayern to Seattle Slew to Talkin Man, etc. etc.

Ok, i'll check it out

funny though the list is all legends, sort of confirmation bias going on there

CincyHorseplayer
04-12-2018, 06:44 AM
To me, he's like Big Brown, a late coming potential monster.

Big Brown was surrounded by a dogshit crop which made him appear like a monster!

CincyHorseplayer
04-12-2018, 06:45 AM
Ok, i'll check it out

funny though the list is all legends, sort of confirmation bias going on there

Absolutely. His ceiling for now is boundless but the comparisons right at this moment IMO and premature.

PowerUpPaynter
04-12-2018, 06:57 AM
Just gonna throw out another... Justify to Bodemeister? Then who is I'll Have Another - Vino Rosso maybe? like IHA should go off about 15-1 ran fast final fractions in winning a somewhat overlooked prep, both Raise A Native Sire line...

f2tornado
04-12-2018, 08:02 AM
Brisnet's figures basically say he is the next Secretariat.

I simply do not believe Justify's 19th slowest Santa Anita Derby in history was 12 Brisnet points faster than American Pharoah's 11th fastest Arkansas Derby in history. If you do believe it than you should log out of here and find the deed to your farm then wager accordingly.

http://www.ndtornado.com/cards/4a/AP.jpg

http://www.ndtornado.com/cards/4a/Justify.jpg

Spalding No!
04-12-2018, 09:41 AM
Brisnet's figures basically say he is the next Secretariat.

I simply do not believe Justify's 19th slowest Santa Anita Derby in history was 12 Brisnet points faster than American Pharoah's 11th fastest Arkansas Derby in history. If you do believe it than you should log out of here and find the deed to your farm then wager accordingly.

A quick glance comparing American Pharoah's and Justify's workouts leading up to their respective final preps shows you that the Santa Anita surface is about 1-2 seconds slower (at least in the mornings) in 2018 than it was in 2015...unless Baffert has decided to stop breezing his horses lights out.

Also, in the SA Derby, Justify was being pushed by a horse that ran one of the fastest 2yo route races of all time (Bolt D'Oro in the Frontrunner at Santa Anita).

American Pharoah was being taxed by who in the Arkansas Derby? Bridget's Big Luvy?

PaceAdvantage
04-12-2018, 10:27 AM
I find it hard to believe people are actually talking about Justify running mediocre due to "slow times" at Santa Anita. Isn't it obvious that wasn't the same Santa Anita strip of years past?

I have no problem believing this horse could be another monster. And the Santa Anita Derby was a good race for him IMO.

Vinnie
04-12-2018, 11:04 AM
So many folks busting on this horse. He has figures "Big as Diggers". Where is the last horse that ran 3 excellent Beyers in his first three races he ever ran? I know that the list has to be quite small. Broke his Maiden, won an allowance and his first Grade I within a span of 48 days. Cut the horse a husk. :)

This horse is a potential "Monster"! :)

jay68802
04-12-2018, 11:41 AM
So if you do not believe that Justify ran a good race at Santa Anita, take 10 points off the figure. You still have one of the top figures in the Derby preps. He is not a so called monster at this time, but he is still on top or very close to the top of the 3 yr old's this year.

f2tornado
04-12-2018, 12:54 PM
So if you do not believe that Justify ran a good race at Santa Anita, take 10 points off the figure. You still have one of the top figures in the Derby preps. He is not a so called monster at this time, but he is still on top or very close to the top of the 3 yr old's this year.

That depends on which figure you use. His 107 Equibase figure was in line with the other big preps: Wood 106, Bluegrass 104, Florida Derby 111, Louisiana Derby 106... and very par for Santa Anita Derby winners over the past decade. A par Santa Anita is often good enough to contend for the win, particularly with a fast final 3/8th. I'm merely questioning what I consider outlier BSF and Brisnet figures. If they're gospel then then the other 19 horses might as well stay in the stall and let him run a Citiation Pimlico Special style walk over.

papillon
04-12-2018, 04:30 PM
Longines ranks Mendelssohn above justify

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/dubai-performances-land-on-worlds-best-racehorse-rankings-just-not-at-top/

I'm not saying either Mendelssohn nor Justify is good or bad, ordinary or out of this world. Both could prove either. I just think it's funny that the comparisons of the two horses, based on very little, and next to nothing for Justify, are so disparate.

I'm sanguine about all figs, they are subject to bias that the makers often refuse to even acknowledge may be putting a thumb on the scale either way. I am triple-y sanguine about 3yo spring maiden wunderkinds; there are very few Curlins and dozens of Verranzonos and Materialities.

The foriegn shipper/UAE trend is something to consider for sure, the dirt-novice jockey stats is something to consider, the bounce from such a huge effort is something to consider, the travel toll is something to consider (however, I can't recommend Coolmore's youtube video on its special trailers and planes--there is a reason their horses ship so well). But the sample size of foriegn shippers is very small. The UAE derby often has snail times, yet always generates some hype. I don't see that as a curse, but as poor judgment all around.

17 American horses every year fail to crack the top three, 25 the top 5. Many of those come from the Wood, the LA derby, and the Blue Grass. A win in the Wood is becoming the kiss of death. 9/10 of every derby prep race is filled with questionable competition. The majority of derby horses don't belong there--the old time "field bet" was a pretty accurate assessment of the questionable suitability of most entrants (mine that birds aside). Almost all of the horses who prove least qualified to be there are the spring wunderkinds. This year there will be a lot of very green, unconditioned horses in the most dangerous flat race in the world.

My point is only that justifications for dismissing Mendelssohn are as silly as the faith in Justify. The belief in Curlin only proved right in retrospect, and it certainly didn't seem a forgone conclusion going into the Preakness.

papillon
04-12-2018, 04:47 PM
EDIT: This was in reply to PaceAdvantage (apologies)

This was exactly the same thing used to counter those of us who found the "Monmouth was historically slow" excuse for Verranzono's Haskell; meh, slow track or not, he ran back to his historically slow time.

Sometimes 1:12 really is 1:12, and 1:55 really is 1:55. I am perfectly ok with being wrong, and with Santa Anita having turned into a plodder track (tragic as that would be).

Honest question: Do you think Santa Anita was 2-3 seconds slower in the SA derby than it has been since it opened? Justify's figures and adulation put him on par with a 1:09-1:10 3/4.

If Justify pulls a Mendelssohn in the UAE derby in the KY derby, I'll happily say, "Good call."

GMB@BP
04-12-2018, 05:16 PM
EDIT: This was in reply to PaceAdvantage (apologies)

This was exactly the same thing used to counter those of us who found the "Monmouth was historically slow" excuse for Verranzono's Haskell; meh, slow track or not, he ran back to his historically slow time.

Sometimes 1:12 really is 1:12, and 1:55 really is 1:55. I am perfectly ok with being wrong, and with Santa Anita having turned into a plodder track (tragic as that would be).

Honest question: Do you think Santa Anita was 2-3 seconds slower in the SA derby than it has been since it opened? Justify's figures and adulation put him on par with a 1:09-1:10 3/4.

If Justify pulls a Mendelssohn in the UAE derby in the KY derby, I'll happily say, "Good call."

How about if he loses the Derby and wins the Preakness, Belmont and Travers?

Its like the Derby is the be all end all.

Holy Bull was a better horse than Go For Gin but after the Derby I am sure he was a bum.

f2tornado
04-12-2018, 05:51 PM
How about if he loses the Derby and wins the Preakness, Belmont and Travers?

Its like the Derby is the be all end all.

Holy Bull was a better horse than Go For Gin but after the Derby I am sure he was a bum.

Go For Gin did place in the Preakness and Belmont before his career unraveled for whatever reason. Holy Bull certainly was the more distinguished of the two thereafter.