I paid a penny for Justify thoughts Kentucky Derby pre race

[LoneF]

Are you wondering what Justify will be thinking at the Kentucky Derby ???

Justify as he is being led to the post parade ...

“ What’s going on here ? I thought only 5 horses were allowed to race at one time and why don’t these other horses have that tag on them that says next stop glue factory ? “

As the gate pops open and Justify breaks a step slow as usual ...

“ Hey Mike what’s hapoening ? I didn’t know these other horses were allowed to touch me? They are so rude !! Where is their manners ? and what’s that stuff flying in my face it feels like dirt. It is dirt !!! Mike nobody told me I had to get dirty “

Justify heading into the first turn after being shuffled back to 16th

“ Didnt somebody tell those other horses that I am the one who is supposed to be in front ? Why aren’t they slowing down ? Screw it I want to go back to the barn and eat some hay this racing stuff is just way too hard !!! “

Post race back at the barn after Justify was eased and finished 19th

“ Listen Bob it wasn’t my fault. Did you see how fast those other horses were running ? They had to be drugged up . They need to test that Mendelssohn. No horse can run that fast .... “

[Immortal6]

*Justify doesn't break well from the aux gate.

*Has 3 furlongs to the first turn, so it doesn't matter anyway.

*Sits a stalking trip on Mendelssohn.

*Mendelssohn doesn't have UAE speed bias and gold rail.

*Justify draws off to win by open lengths.

*Mendelssohn is another failed UAE Derby horse.

You can make up any scenario you want for any of the horses. Until we know post positions most of these "won't break well" "never had dirt in his face" arguments are null and void in my book.

For the record I'm not necessarily as high on Justify or Mendelssohn as some people on here are, I'm just stating that your love for Mendelssohn and hate for Justify might need to be reigned in a bit.

[jay68802]

Post parade: "Look, 19 chumps, and me."

In the gate: "Hey Mike, I know I am not the best gate horse, so get me settled and in about a minute, we will have some fun."

During the race: "You think a little bumping and dirt is going to affect me? Keep dreaming."

Stretch run: "Hey Mendelsshon, What's up?"

After the race: "Told you I am one of the best 3 yr old's out there."

[exactatom]

Or

" Why are there so many people watching today as they put the saddle on me?"

"What is this song they are playing and why is everyone cheering at the end of it?"

"That sure is a big video board"

"I sure an sitting a long time in this gate. Usually I like to draw the #1"

"A lot of horses in here with me"

"Why did that horse cut me off"

"That Quip and Promises Fulfilled sure are running fast early"

"I can't around all these horses to get by them"

"These slowpokes are holding up traffic"

"Man, I really ran far today and not near the end"

[papillon]

How many spring maiden wonderkinds have made the top ten?

Bodiemeister, for sure, who else?

How many have been in the bottom five?

Materiality, for sure, who else?

How many leave the KY Derby to either never race again, or to race only a few times, and never win?

I've nothing against the horse, but I haven't seen anything even suggesting Hall of Famer yet, certainly nothing suggesting All Time Greats, and history suggests that is what it is going to take. He's got to buck a trend that is going on 130 years. That suggests Apollo was fluke, not a monster.

He is not setting speed records, he is not demolishing his only true competition. He could very well turn out to be the next Spectacular Bid, but does anyone, being honest, truly believe that? If he had the Bid's start in the Florida Derby, do you honestly feel confident he'd have been able to overcome it?

In a battle between brothers, do you take the brother who has never taken a punch to the gut? The brother who has only ever used wiffle ball bats, to the brother that's been swinging Louisville Sluggers his entire career?

Forget Mendelssohn's time and lengths won in the UAE Derby, he ran the mile in 1:35.97 in the BCJT, World Approval, a premiere miler specialist, ran the the mile in 1:34.66, good magic ran the BCJ mile in 1:36.99. Even making allowances for surface and assuming World Approval's time was indicitive of a turf track at leadt 1 second faster than the dirt, I'd say Mendelssohn is at leadt as good as the best of the American crop, esp given he isn't a great turf horse.

The "Santa Anita is Slower Now," argument to account for for 3/4 in 1:12 has the burden of proving the fastest track in the nation is now between 2-3 seconds slower than it ever has been, and is now one of the slowest. The doubters don't carry that burden.

The horse may be a world beater, better than the Bid, better than Point Given, better than American Pharoah, but that's a big ask on three uncontested races, besting a horse that hasn't won since September.

Regarding Bolt D'Oro, has any horse won the derby off a 3 race loosing streak?

[GMB@BP]

Where are these articles claiming he will be a Hall of Famer or All Time Great.

I see words like "talented", "rare".

Feels like a straw man to me.

[f2tornado]

Regarding Bolt D'Oro, has any horse won the derby off a 3 race loosing streak?

Sea Hero lost his preceding four races before wearing the roses; 7th, 9th, 3rd, and 4th. Super Saver didn't win either of his two three year old preps going into the Derby but won his fall race.

[minethatbird08]

Regarding Bolt D'Oro, has any horse won the derby off a 3 race loosing streak?

Sea Hero, Giacomo, Mine that bird to name a few recent. Different era but I know Sir Barton was a maiden Derby winner, like 0 for 6 going into the Derby for his first race as a 3yo. I'm sure there are others.

[Tom]

"Hey Mike....help yourself to a few roses."

[Spalding No!]

How many spring maiden wonderkinds have made the top ten?

Bodiemeister, for sure, who else?
Congaree, Curlin, Pulpit.

Red Bullet, Bernardini, and Cloud Computing didn't make the Derby field, but won the Preakness (as did Curlin). Rock Hard Ten placed in the Preakness.

Corporate Report debuted in March, ran in all 3 TC races, took the Travers.

Summer Bird split the Derby field and later won the Belmont.

Diazo ran a solid race behind Sea Hero.

Quintana won a maiden claimer in February and ran 6th to Strike The Gold.

Wheelaway made a big move, but lugged in late, was toast soon after the TC.

Atswhatimtalknbout ran a good 4th, never ran again.

Showing Up debuted in February, ran decent 6th to Barbaro.

How many have been in the bottom five?

Materiality, for sure, who else?

Materiality was a late closing 6th in the Derby after missing the break.

Disposal debuted in March, ran last behind Lil E. Tee.

The ill-fated Desert Hero won his debut in February, well back behind Charismatic.

Valhol buzzed his way to CD after debuting in February. Far behind Charismatic.

Greeley's Galaxy 11th to Giacomo.

Coin Silver broke maiden in March, 12th to Giacomo.

[cj]

How many spring maiden wonderkinds have made the top ten?

Bodiemeister, for sure, who else?

How many have been in the bottom five?

Materiality, for sure, who else?



Materiality didn't finish anywhere near the bottom 5.

Edit: I see Spalding covered this already.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Congaree, Curlin, Pulpit.

Red Bullet, Bernardini, and Cloud Computing didn't make the Derby field, but won the Preakness (as did Curlin). Rock Hard Ten placed in the Preakness.

Corporate Report debuted in March, ran in all 3 TC races, took the Travers.

Summer Bird split the Derby field and later won the Belmont.

Diazo ran a solid race behind Sea Hero.

Quintana won a maiden claimer in February and ran 6th to Strike The Gold.

Wheelaway made a big move, but lugged in late, was toast soon after the TC.

Atswhatimtalknbout ran a good 4th, never ran again.

Showing Up debuted in February, ran decent 6th to Barbaro.



Materiality was a late closing 6th in the Derby after missing the break.

Disposal debuted in March, ran last behind Lil E. Tee.

The ill-fated Desert Hero won his debut in February, well back behind Charismatic.

Valhol buzzed his way to CD after debuting in February. Far behind Charismatic.

Greeley's Galaxy 11th to Giacomo.

Coin Silver broke maiden in March, 12th to Giacomo.

Great memory!:ThmbUp:

[letswastemoney]

Bodemeister's advantage was showing enough speed to avoid traffic. If Justify does the same, he will be fine.

He doesn't have to set the pace. He can be around 3rd or 4th.

[exactatom]

Since the current point system went into effect, the Derby winners have come into the Derby undefeated.

A small sample size to choose from.

This could be the effect of:

1. Connections knowing they can wait until much later to begin a horse's Derby run as only 1 win (in a 100 point race) is needed to get in the gate.

2. The point system weeds out horses that got graded earnings in slots funded races at distances under 1 mile.

[LoneF]

Justify has raced against a grand total of 14 horses heading into the KY derby.

11 of the 14 were just random fillers to get the races to go. You heard Mick Ruis say himself the only reason he entered 90-1 Otbit Rain in the Santa Anita Derby was to get the race to go. 2 of the 3 remaining horses were fringe players at best on the KY Derby trail. ( Core Beliefs and Instilled Regard ) The only horse of any substance he beat was Bolt and Bolt has lost his last 3 races and nobody really considers him a serious contender. Cmon 14 horses ??? That seriously has to be a KY Derby record.

It’s not like he pulled a Altsheba in one of his races and went to his knees in the stretch and still won. He has had nothing but easy unbelievably comfortable gift wrapped trips. He is probably the only horse in the field who has never taken any dirt or been even slightly compromised in any way in any of his races.

It’s not like his final times are anything noteworthy.

How anybody can say his resume either on paper or visually even remotely stacks up against the likes of Audible, Mendelssohn, Good Magic or Magnum Moon is beyond me, yet he is the short priced clear cut favorite in what is one of the strongest derby fields in history.

I would even go as far as to say Hofburg 2nd in the Florida Derby was as every bit as good if not better than the Santa Anita Derby win for Justify. He is even more lightly raced so just as much as a chance to move forward if not more and at least Hofburg has faced getting bumped and taking dirt and having to work out a trip from a bad post . Oh and also the projected derby pace seems to favor a closer like Hofburg much more than a horse like Justify who needs to be close to the pace.

Yet Justify will go off at 5/2 and Hofburg at 20/1

What exactly has Justify done that his rivals like Audible, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Good Magic have not done to merit him being the clear favorite ?

I know people are desperate for the next American Pharoah and since they are both trained by Baffert and he keeps bringing up the comparison between the two that it’s easy to let your emotions get the best of you as a bettor ...

Rule #1 in gambling. Don’t bet with your heart.

[GMB@BP]

to much incorrect statements to write out a response, been hashed in 10 different threads, feels like trolling.

we get it, you dont like the horse and you will be the first one in line should a horse lose the derby

[TiffaniO]

Oh goodness... this obsession against Justify and for Mendelsohn is getting a bit ridiculous. If you feel that strongly, just wait 19 days, play your horse and then either cash the ticket or throw it in the scrap heap.

If you truly feel strongly for your precious “Mendy” you should hope others feel as strongly about Justify.

[CincyHorseplayer]

His 2 race back makes me believe in his talent. To go that fast in your 2 turn debut early and not die is impressive. I don't think he will get the luxury pace scenario of his last and you can question the validity of his figure but I think after setting a mild and uncontested pace he was going to finish better than he did in the blazing prior race. But other than this race he has done nothing. His talent is real but I don't think the conditions will be as ideal on derby day. And IMO if he doesn't finish 2nd or worst the race could be another payoff dud so I am betting accordingly.

I don't agree with what I think is an oversimplified interpretation of Bolt Doro. I think if anything it's him not Good Magic circling back to greatness. His blood and guts performance 1st back vs a tough Mckinzie was awesome. On my ratings it was the best non 9furlong prep race. Then runs into the above scenario. I was surprised he ran at him as hard as he did because I expected more of a regression after the San Felipe. But quietly has earned 123 and 129 TFUS figs and I think is primed to run his best. I haven't got the numbers for the 9f preps yet but thus far the highest rating I have is 209 for derby prep routes this year. Par is 220. So far in this entire crop he has come closest with a 218 last year. I make my own ratings and they've been accurate for the last 6 years. I think Bolt is a live one and still might just prove to be the best of this crop. If the odds are looking like 8-1 I likely am a taker.

[f2tornado]

I too think Justify is no American Pharoah but the point is to pick the winner. You have a about a 95% chance of picking a loser without even capping the race. I enjoy most seeing posts about why a handicapper thinks a horse will WIN. I make money on winning horses. I make nothing on losers, at least those outside the scope of vertical gimmicks.

[LoneF]

I too think Justify is no American Pharoah but the point is to pick the winner. You have a about a 95% chance of picking a loser without even capping the race. I enjoy most seeing posts about why a handicapper thinks a horse will WIN. I make money on winning horses. I make nothing on losers, at least those outside the scope of vertical gimmicks.

You toss out Justify and that helps you a lot in making money if you do pick out the correct winner.

[SecretAgentMan]

You toss out Justify and that helps you a lot in making money if you do pick out the correct winner.



Every other post you've made on this board is about hating on Justify......that's why they run the race.

[horses4courses]

Along with all the hoopla of the KY Derby, and handicapping the race,
come the inevitable brash statements and chest thumping.

So, you don't like Justify.
Fair enough.
Chances are he won't win the race.

3-1 odds say his chances are around 25%.
He is probably an underlay, and his true chances of winning are more remote.

To call the horse a "fraud" says more about the OP than it does about the horse.
Justify is a serious racehorse. He just may not win the Derby, though.
Don't expect much credit for going against him, and a lot of ridicule should
he scoot home for the roses. There isn't a better dirt trainer than Baffert.

Even if he does win, there are many more candidates with chances at far more
attractive odds. Nothing wrong with tearing up a ticket on a good bet.
Keep making good bets, and this game becomes much easier to navigate. :ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

What exactly has Justify done that his rivals like Audible, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Good Magic have not done to merit him being the clear favorite ?

Well, outside of Magnum Moon, he'd be the only one that hasn't lost a race while winning a 9F (or greater) G1 Derby Prep.

There have been a number of "nevers" that have been crossed off the board since Charismatic romped in 1999. The Apollo curse along with Storm Cat and some others are sure to go down as well. Likely sooner than later.

The game has drastically changed, and the lead ins to this race have also drastically changed. That simply can't even be debated any longer.

At least you are all over one of those "nevers" with your respect for Mendelssohn and his across the pond UAE Derby and turf pedigree. That 'never' will be quashed some day as well. Will it be this year?

Whatever happens, we have a potential Derby for the ages on our hands with a dozen great stories brewing about. Enjoy it, and if the horse you like wins, all the better for you.

[SkunkApe]

Whatever happens, we have a potential Derby for the ages on our hands with a dozen great stories brewing about. Enjoy it, and if the horse you like wins, all the better for you.


(cue the Hokey-Pokey music)

...and THAT’S what it’s all about.

[papillon]

Well, outside of Magnum Moon, he'd be the only one that hasn't lost a race while winning a 9F (or greater) G1 Derby Prep.

There have been a number of "nevers" that have been crossed off the board since Charismatic romped in 1999. The Apollo curse along with Storm Cat and some others are sure to go down as well. Likely sooner than later.

The game has drastically changed, and the lead ins to this race have also drastically changed. That simply can't even be debated any longer.

At least you are all over one of those "nevers" with your respect for Mendelssohn and his across the pond UAE Derby and turf pedigree. That 'never' will be quashed some day as well. Will it be this year?

Whatever happens, we have a potential Derby for the ages on our hands with a dozen great stories brewing about. Enjoy it, and if the horse you like wins, all the better for you.

Being a Scat Daddy out of Leslie's Lady is about as dirt as you get. It is basically the exact same nick as Beholder, if you take it back to Hennessey, the sire of Johannesburg and Henny Hughs. Mendelssohn is Justify's brother and Audible's uncle, if theirs are not turf pedogrees, neither is his. If Behlder does not have a turf pedigree, there is no way Mendelssohn can.


He won't win, because I have a sentimental attachment to him. Kiss of death, poor horse.

[LoneF]

Being a Scat Daddy out of Leslie's Lady is about as dirt as you get. It is basically the exact same nick as Beholder, if you take it back to Hennessey, the sire of Johannesburg and Henny Hughs. Mendelssohn is Justify's brother and Audible's uncle, if theirs are not turf pedogrees, neither is his. If Behlder does not have a turf pedigree, there is no way Mendelssohn can.


He won't win, because I have a sentimental attachment to him. Kiss of death, poor horse.

Don’t tell me your cursing Mendelssohn!!

[cj]

Don’t tell me your cursing Mendelssohn!!

You already started a thread about Justify. Just add to that one, no need for multiple threads about the same horse. I merged them. Heck, there is also another one out there.


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=144290

And another one...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=144195

And another one...


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=144178

And these are all on the first page of this section.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Being a Scat Daddy out of Leslie's Lady is about as dirt as you get. It is basically the exact same nick as Beholder, if you take it back to Hennessey, the sire of Johannesburg and Henny Hughs. Mendelssohn is Justify's brother and Audible's uncle, if theirs are not turf pedogrees, neither is his. If Behlder does not have a turf pedigree, there is no way Mendelssohn can.


He won't win, because I have a sentimental attachment to him. Kiss of death, poor horse.

Pedigree was a very poor word. I was talking more about his past, and racing history.

First 5 career starts were on Turf including his "across the pond" win in the BC Juvy Turf. He then goes fake stuff and then 'dirt' at Dubai after his BC victory.

Maybe he is the 2nd coming of Animal Kingdom?

I'm not discounting Mendelssohn in the least. An obviously well bred and incredibly talented horse that has won races on all 3 surfaces in 7 career starts, including G1 level wins in 2 of his last 3.

Toss in the fact that he was a $3 Million purchase with Aidan O'Brien in the barn, and it is a horse that has to be respected regardless of any past Kentucky Derby history.

[GMB@BP]

Justify has raced against a grand total of 14 horses heading into the KY derby

While a true statement it was also a product of how talented he was. The fact he stayed at Santa Anita set off a chain of last second changes in the preps surrounding his race.

11 of the 14 were just random fillers to get the races to go.

His maiden race was your typical event for 3yo's at SA, he stealth entered into the non winners of one, it was a surprise to all when he entered. I will address the SA derby next.

You heard Mick Ruis say himself the only reason he entered 90-1 Otbit Rain in the Santa Anita Derby was to get the race to go.

That is completely false. He said before the race he thought only 4 or 5 were going to enter, then 7 ended being drawn. He thought he was getting a free check till the entries came out. Also, the SA Derby goes with 1 horse entered, where do you get this "get the race to go" stuff.

Part of the issue you ignore is the fact that a lot of the socal horses are shipping out of town and doing quite well, without having to run against Justify and Bolt.


It’s not like his final times are anything noteworthy

Yea, horses go 121 and change all the time this meet at SA, good call.

Oh and also the projected derby pace seems to favor a closer like Hofburg much more than a horse like Justify who needs to be close to the pace.

Every year the Derby pace is set to be fast, but we see horses win on or near the lead. Its not an autotoss situation.

Yet Justify will go off at 5/2 and Hofburg at 20/1

This is why its a parimutuel.

What exactly has Justify done that his rivals like Audible, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Good Magic have not done to merit him being the clear favorite ?

Clear favorite would be like 4/5. Were talking about 3/1 to 5/1. You make it sound like this is Arazi going into the gate.

Rule #1 in gambling. Don’t bet with your heart.

Heart? Does this Justify horse have some kind of storied following coming into the race? I think people see a fast, well bred, physical specimen of a horse from a top barn. Its not really that much to think the horse has a good shot.

[Spalding No!]

Being a Scat Daddy out of Leslie's Lady is about as dirt as you get.
Scat Daddy has sired only 2 Grade 1 winners on dirt in North America and one of them is potentially running against Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby.

In terms of Grade 1/Group 1 horses, Scat Daddy has been much more potent on turf (Mendelssohn included).

[Robert Fischer]

lets see his pre derby works.

health and such things...


from what we already know - Is he 'only' a sort of 'more-athletic-Dortmund'??

Dortmund was 3rd in the Derby vs. American Pharaoh and Firing Line.

Being 'merely' a more athletic Dortmund is certainly not bad at all, in fact it's good enough to contend for a win here.

We can see pretty plainly that he's at least in that general description/comparison.

But what we must extrapolate with Justify is whether he is more than that, and is a truly special 'great' horse. Was that bit of hiccup in the Santa Anita Derby simply a product of playing 'catch me if you can!' with another Graded Stakes horse? Can he run a big 10f race and still change leads seamlessly and finish powerfully through the lane and into the gallop out?

We will not know for sure until the Kentucky Derby is run.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

lets see his pre derby works.

health and such things...


from what we already know - Is he 'only' a sort of 'more-athletic-Dortmund'??

Dortmund was 3rd in the Derby vs. American Pharaoh and Firing Line.

Being 'merely' a more athletic Dortmund is certainly not bad at all, in fact it's good enough to contend for a win here.

We can see pretty plainly that he's at least in that general description/comparison.

But what we must extrapolate with Justify is whether he is more than that, and is a truly special 'great' horse. Was that bit of hiccup in the Santa Anita Derby simply a product of playing 'catch me if you can!' with another Graded Stakes horse? Can he run a big 10f race and still change leads seamlessly and finish powerfully through the lane and into the gallop out?

We will not know for sure until the Kentucky Derby is run.

I don't see that Dortmund and Justify compare to one another in the least.

Dortmund was a massive horse with a solid cruising speed, and that was about it. Justify is a pretty damn athletic horse, that is much smaller and more nimble than Dortmund could ever imagine.

(Now, I have to lay down a precursor (again), saying that I'm not a Justify 'fanboy'. Just laying out relevant information.)

[LoneF]

Justify may be the biggest fraud in the race, but he’s not the only one.

Fraud #2 - My Boy Jack

This horse seems to have his own mini hype train happening. He couldn’t get past a couple of average horses at best in Noble Indy and Lone Sailor in the LA Derby and than was all out to beat some nobody in the Lexington by a nose and now suddenly he’s going to run down real race horses like Mendelssohn, Audible, Magnum Moon and Good Magic in the stretch ? He has no big move forward in him. He has raced so much already and he is who he is which is not even the best closer in the race that’s clearly Hofburg. Yeah his race in the Southwest was good but that was obviously because he got moved up with the slop.

Fraud #3 - Gronkowski

He will get significant money because of his name but the only way he wins is if a spaceship appears over Churchill Downs and beams the other 19 horses back to the mother planet.

#4 - Bolt

I won’t call him a fraud because I feel sorry he got stuck with the incompetent Mick Ruis as a trainer through no fault of his own but this horse seems to have a cult following and a lot of misguided souls are going to waste their hard earned money betting this horse. How long can this horse keep falling back on his performance in the Frontrunner stakes ? Yeah he looked real
good winning but that was the middle of his 2 year old year. He just hasn’t progressed from his 2 - 3 year old year like he needed to and I don’t care how much the pedigree books say he wants to run long . My eyes tell me he wants no part of a 1 1/4 mile

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Justify may be the biggest fraud in the race, but he’s not the only one.

Welp. You only have about 13 more horses to discount religiously other than Mendelssohn till Derby day.

Shall we let the countdown begin, or should you just start a "19 Horses that Won't Beat Mendelssohn, and Here is Why" thread?

[Spalding No!]

Dortmund was a massive horse with a solid cruising speed, and that was about it.
Watch Dortmund at his peak in a 3-race series including the Los Alamitos Futurity, Robert Lewis, and San Felipe.

Horse showed determination, grit, heart, took pressure, repelled challenges, responded when headed, came back on, and re-rallied on the inside.

Justify is a pretty damn athletic horse, that is much smaller and more nimble than Dortmund could ever imagine.
Baffert has compared Justify's size to that of Point Given who was 17-hands and about 1,280 lbs. Justify recently weighed in at 1,252 lbs at Santa Anita. Dortmund was also around 1,280 lbs.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Watch Dortmund at his peak in a 3-race series including the Los Alamitos Futurity, Robert Lewis, and San Felipe.

Horse showed determination, grit, heart, took pressure, repelled challenges, responded when headed, came back on, and re-rallied on the inside.


Baffert has compared Justify's size to that of Point Given who was 17-hands and about 1,280 lbs. Justify recently weighed in at 1,252 lbs at Santa Anita. Dortmund was also around 1,280 lbs.

Thine eyes deceive me.

That 28 pounds is massive I tell ya'. :popcorn:

[LoneF]

If Mendelssohn would have ran in the Santa Anita Derby instead of Justify and Bolt had just conceded the lead without a fight to Mendelssohn like he did to Justify it would have been a lot more than a couple lengths that Mendelssohn won by. Bolt would have needed Binoculars to see him by the time it was finished ...

[PowerUpPaynter]

Justify may be the biggest fraud in the race, but he’s not the only one.

Fraud #2 - My Boy Jack

This horse seems to have his own mini hype train happening. He couldn’t get past a couple of average horses at best in Noble Indy and Lone Sailor in the LA Derby and than was all out to beat some nobody in the Lexington by a nose and now suddenly he’s going to run down real race horses like Mendelssohn, Audible, Magnum Moon and Good Magic in the stretch ? He has no big move forward in him. He has raced so much already and he is who he is which is not even the best closer in the race that’s clearly Hofburg. Yeah his race in the Southwest was good but that was obviously because he got moved up with the slop.


I kinda agree here plus his closing move that everyone loves in the LA Derby flattened badly and he actually ran a slower final 1/8 than Noble Indy who was right up toward the fast pace. - MBJ is best at a mile it would seem with the eyes. However I will say his pedigree says he will love 1 1/4, I just don't see it with my eyes.

[cj]

If Mendelssohn would have ran in the Santa Anita Derby instead of Justify and Bolt had just conceded the lead without a fight to Mendelssohn like he did to Justify it would have been a lot more than a couple lengths that Mendelssohn won by. Bolt would have needed Binoculars to see him by the time it was finished ...

What is the based on? It isn't the clock, I know that much.

[Robert Fischer]

Watch Dortmund at his peak in a 3-race series including the Los Alamitos Futurity, Robert Lewis, and San Felipe.

Horse showed determination, grit, heart, took pressure, repelled challenges, responded when headed, came back on, and re-rallied on the inside.


Baffert has compared Justify's size to that of Point Given who was 17-hands and about 1,280 lbs. Justify recently weighed in at 1,252 lbs at Santa Anita. Dortmund was also around 1,280 lbs.

I'm not saying they are exactly the same, but there are some rough similarities.
Both are quite big. (thanks for the details).

Dortmund was a cool horse. He did run 3rd to American Pharaoh in the Derby.

I happen to think that Justify is a lot more athletic than Dortmund.

Would like to see some strong pre-derby works, especially entering the lane and the finish/gallop-out.

[f2tornado]

What is the based on? It isn't the clock, I know that much.

This. Even if we assumed equal variant then Mendelssohn would have been no more than a few lengths ahead at the mile pole. Adjusting his time to 9F would be very near 148.9. This is very par with most of the 9F American preps this year. Now, if his 18.9 second final 1.5F translates another half panel on the CD surface then a final quarter in 25.2 would be a force to be reckoned with... if he's in position.

[Spalding No!]

Fraud #2 - My Boy Jack

This horse seems to have his own mini hype train happening. He couldn’t get past a couple of average horses at best in Noble Indy and Lone Sailor in the LA Derby and than was all out to beat some nobody in the Lexington by a nose and now suddenly he’s going to run down real race horses like Mendelssohn, Audible, Magnum Moon and Good Magic in the stretch ? He has no big move forward in him. He has raced so much already and he is who he is which is not even the best closer in the race that’s clearly Hofburg. Yeah his race in the Southwest was good but that was obviously because he got moved up with the slop.
My Boy Jack went about 10-wide around the far turn at the Fair Grounds in the midsts of making a ridiculous 3-furlong move that saw him go from utterly last to front end between a single point of call. You can blame the hang job on Kent Desormeaux there.

Considering how quickly you dismiss other lightly raced horses like Justify and Telekinesis, it's interesting that you've crowned Hofburg--with just a maiden win to his credit-- the "best closer" (how about Vino Rosso?). Hofburg was the recipient of any even better set up than My Boy Jack in the Florida Derby and all he could do was follow Audible (who isn't a closer) while making no impression on the winner--in fact he lost ground to him down the lane.

My Boy Jack's biggest fault is perhaps his stamina and his rider's unpredictability, but he lays over Hofburg in terms of experience, versatility, and acceleration. He's handled a variety of surfaces and race situations. He's already shown he roll on the outside (Louisiana Derby), rally on the inside (Southwest), and weave between horses (Lexington Stakes).

[GMB@BP]

Watch Dortmund at his peak in a 3-race series including the Los Alamitos Futurity, Robert Lewis, and San Felipe.

Horse showed determination, grit, heart, took pressure, repelled challenges, responded when headed, came back on, and re-rallied on the inside.


Baffert has compared Justify's size to that of Point Given who was 17-hands and about 1,280 lbs. Justify recently weighed in at 1,252 lbs at Santa Anita. Dortmund was also around 1,280 lbs.

Just shows how little research is being done, i am concerned the opposite case may exist, not arhletic enough to handle the traffic.

[exactatom]

While a true statement it was also a product of how talented he was. The fact he stayed at Santa Anita set off a chain of last second changes in the preps surrounding his race.



His maiden race was your typical event for 3yo's at SA, he stealth entered into the non winners of one, it was a surprise to all when he entered. I will address the SA derby next.



That is completely false. He said before the race he thought only 4 or 5 were going to enter, then 7 ended being drawn. He thought he was getting a free check till the entries came out. Also, the SA Derby goes with 1 horse entered, where do you get this "get the race to go" stuff.

Part of the issue you ignore is the fact that a lot of the socal horses are shipping out of town and doing quite well, without having to run against Justify and Bolt.



Yea, horses go 121 and change all the time this meet at SA, good call.



Every year the Derby pace is set to be fast, but we see horses win on or near the lead. Its not an autotoss situation.




This is why its a parimutuel.


Clear favorite would be like 4/5. Were talking about 3/1 to 5/1. You make it sound like this is Arazi going into the gate.



Heart? Does this Justify horse have some kind of storied following coming into the race? I think people see a fast, well bred, physical specimen of a horse from a top barn. Its not really that much to think the horse has a good shot.


Clear favorite in the Derby is anything under 5 to 1. This is because this is the one race of the year where uneducated money plays. People who play once a year bet names and numbers. This makes horses only 50 to 1 that should be 200 to 1. Also, look at the field size compared to other races. Odds are a simple result of math and math shows with 20 betting interests the odds of all interests will be higher than in the typical California fields of 7 interests.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Clear favorite in the Derby is anything under 5 to 1. This is because this is the one race of the year where uneducated money plays. People who play once a year bet names and numbers. This makes horses only 50 to 1 that should be 200 to 1. Also, look at the field size compared to other races. Odds are a simple result of math and math shows with 20 betting interests the odds of all interests will be higher than in the typical California fields of 7 interests.

100% disagree.

Undeducated money plays, but they are a very small part of the pool. Millions will roll in on supposed 'educated' guesses like they do every year.

The 100 to 200/1s aren't taking a hit, it is the 50/1s like Giacamo and Mine That Bird that are taking a hit from supposed 'smart' money.

You think Patch at 20/1 was all due to dumb money? He was a supposed 'wise guy' play last year.

Reality is, big money doesn't much like favorites unless they feel it is a walkover like Chrome or Pharoah.

Do you see a Chrome or Pharoah in this field? The tote will tell, and it won't be $2 to $20 tickets to W on Justify or Magnum that tell the story.

[Spalding No!]

Just shows how little research is being done, i am concerned the opposite case may exist, not arhletic enough to handle the traffic.
Justify broke slow in his first two starts which is concerning as it seems imperative that he gets early position close up near the first flight. If he doesn't do that he'll probably be a non-factor like Curlin in 2007 regardless of his talent.

From there, depending on the pace, we'll see if he is American Pharoah (slow pace) or Unbridled's Song (fast pace).

Both American Pharoah (Rebel) and Dortmund (San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby) broke poorly from the gate in some of their preps but weren't too troubled in 5-6 horse fields. Both had foot issues and Justify himself had at least a minor problem coming out of the Santa Anita Derby, so there is that, too. The former two broke cleanly in the Kentucky Derby though.

[papillon]

Pedigree was a very poor word. I was talking more about his past, and racing history.

First 5 career starts were on Turf including his "across the pond" win in the BC Juvy Turf. He then goes fake stuff and then 'dirt' at Dubai after his BC victory.

Maybe he is the 2nd coming of Animal Kingdom?

I'm not discounting Mendelssohn in the least. An obviously well bred and incredibly talented horse that has won races on all 3 surfaces in 7 career starts, including G1 level wins in 2 of his last 3.

Toss in the fact that he was a $3 Million purchase with Aidan O'Brien in the barn, and it is a horse that has to be respected regardless of any past Kentucky Derby history.

His turf races I think need to be taken with a grain of salt. O'Brien has said they only raced him on turf, because he was there and kind of a slow learner. He clearly prefers firm ground, once he got on firm ground, he started winning. And he finally had his "$3 million" breakout performance when he got on the surface he was bred for. My guess is that he was in the BCJT, instead of the BCJ, only because they were testing US Navy Flag for a possible derby run.

For me the most important thing about his turf races is the amount of weight he carried in them, up to 131lbs twice.

If he is a factor in the race, I think it will either be in the first three, and run very much a Nyquisty type of race, or he'll try to wire and run a very Hard Spunish type of race, but I don't think there is any closer of an Exagerator or Street Sense quality in the field, so...

If he does manage to win the derby, he'd be perfect for an attempt at a KY derby/Arlington Million double. I'm not even sure they would bother with a TC attempt tbh. There is only one TC they really care about, but then again, if O'Brien pulled off the American and English TCs in the same year...oh my goodneesh

[clicknow]

has won races on all 3 surfaces in 7 career starts, including G1 level wins in 2 of his last 3.

This is interesting for sure.

Omni 3 surface horses are not real common, esp. the ones who win graded races and even rarer win all G1s on different surfaces.

I kept track of a few of those over the years like Lava Man (all G1s), and then the all graded stakes ones like Einstein, Mushka, General Quarters, Twirling Candy, Sidney's Candy, Panty Raid. I guess a few others.

Then you have the ones who won on 3 surfaces but not all were graded stakes like Awesome Gem, Ball Four, Carriage Trail, Colonel John, etc.

Thinking about it in baseball terms, looking at certain players, the athlete is preeminent....the true athlete horse is able to run on any surface.

[cj]

This is interesting for sure.

Omni 3 surface horses are not real common, esp. the ones who win graded races and even rarer win all G1s on different surfaces.

I kept track of a few of those over the years like Lava Man (all G1s), and then the all graded stakes ones like Einstein, Mushka, General Quarters, Twirling Candy, Sidney's Candy, Panty Raid. I guess a few others.

Then you have the ones who won on 3 surfaces but not all were graded stakes like Awesome Gem, Ball Four, Carriage Trail, Colonel John, etc.

Thinking about it in baseball terms, looking at certain players, the athlete is preeminent....the true athlete horse is able to run on any surface.

To be fair many horses that probably would have won on all three surfaces were never tried on some.