Mendelssohn at 8-1 vs Justify at 3-1 in KD

[menifee]

You have to take Mendelssohn right? There’s no way a serious bettor could think Justify is a better bet here.

[f2tornado]

You have to take Mendelssohn right? There’s no way a serious bettor could think Justify is a better bet here.

Personally, I think the betting person should only use the tote board to design a wager rather than to make the wager. If a person prefers Justify but doesn't like 3-1 then perhaps this person should look at the horizontal or vertical gimmicks... or sit it out. I suppose if a person liked both of these horses then the player could bet both to win and hope the longer odds horse wins. If the shorter one comes in the player still makes even money on the combined bet.

[Robert Fischer]

You have to take Mendelssohn right? There’s no way a serious bettor could think Justify is a better bet here.

May be a great deal, may be a bad deal. I don't know.

If I had to take a wild guess I'd have Justify 2/1 and Mendelssohn 30/1 on my fair odds line (while not necessarily eager betting either one at those prices), but I haven't had more than a superficial look at Mendelssohn, and I could eventually rate him much higher.


I have to extrapolate a lot more with Mendolssohn's form.

How does his ability translate to the Kentucky Derby? Has he taken dirt in the face? What is his running style? How good was his UAE Derby when he had a trip to run his top? Would Vino Rosso (an American grinder with classic-distance stamina) been able to lead that field and run just as nice looking a performance, or was it indicative of special ability that would apply to the Derby? How much can we learn from his entire body of work? Are his works available for viewing?


Justify, we already know has crop-leading talent. It's just a matter of him running his race. Beating Justify is about hoping he doesn't rate, or doesn't change leads, or has a bad trip. The 'translation' part is already over.

[GMB@BP]

Betting on a horse who rode against a golden rail, moderate pace and final figure, loose on the lead at 8/1 in a field of 20 goes against everything I believe in.

If he beats me good luck! I give him at best 5% chance of winning, I give Justify about 20%

So yea, I guess I will take the 3/1

[GMB@BP]

shit, meant with a golden rail

[boys at tosconova]

i don't think mendelssohn will be 8-1. i just think he'll have off the charts backing. i think he'll be the second choice behind justy

then i think bolt will be third followed by audible.

i still think, like i did before the SA that audible will not only a strong contender for the KD i think he'll be value as well.

[minethatbird08]

The best bet is to have Scat Daddy in the futures pool at 27-1 or whatever the odds closed at.

[clicknow]

loose on the lead at 8/1 in a field of 20 goes against everything I believe in.

As opposed to Justify's loose on the lead against a field of 6. ;)

[Tom]

Yeah, that's almost as bad as that plug Secretariat lose on the lead against a field of 5. :rolleyes:

[classhandicapper]

I think Mendelssohn' performance is being overrated. He's a very good horse, but Meydan was very kind to speed that day.

[señorclipclop]

Neither. Fool's gold.

[LoneF]

Justify at 2/1 and Mendelssohn at 30/1 ??????

Please tell me that was a typo and it was supposed to be 3/1 lol

Mendelssohn won a Breeders Cup race and Justify beat a few 5 horse fields filled with second tier allowance horses. Oh and he won that match race with Bolt but often when a horse has a big pace edge in a match race he wins regardless if he is the best horse.

[LoneF]

Justify has crop leading talent ...

Based off what ???????

Because he beat Bolt once ????

Bolt hasn’t made it to the wire first in his last 3 races ...

Good Magic and Mendelssohn both have resumes that put Justify to shame

[menifee]

i don't think mendelssohn will be 8-1. i just think he'll have off the charts backing. i think he'll be the second choice behind justy

then i think bolt will be third followed by audible.

i still think, like i did before the SA that audible will not only a strong contender for the KD i think he'll be value as well.

These are the odds I’m seeing in the off-shore pools.

[LoneF]

The only reason Justify is the favorite right now is because so many people are so emotionally invested in him being the next American Pharoah they are betting with their emotions not brains. It’s the same reason Gronkowski will probably go off as the 7th or 8th betting choice even though he by far had the least chance to win as any horse that will run in the derby. People just like his name because of Gronk the football player . It’s people betting with their emotions rather than brains. Justify is clearly not anywhere near the racehorse Mendelssohn is ...

[LoneF]

I would question whether Justify is even qualified to be Mendelssohns work partner ...

[Tom]

I would question whether Justify is even qualified to be Mendelssohns work partner ...

Now that is ridiculous.
Justify ran a 140 pace figure easily and held on nicely in the lane.

Mendelssohn will be looking at Baffert's Boy's Butt all the way around.:lol:

[f2tornado]

Now that is ridiculous.
Justify ran a 140 pace figure easily and held on nicely in the lane.

Mendelssohn will be looking at Baffert's Boy's Butt all the way around.:lol:

Justify hit the 3/4 pole a half second slower than the Oaks fillies yet I’m supposed to buy a hot pace? Regardless, he did come home fast which to me is more important.

[horses4courses]

These are the odds I’m seeing in the off-shore pools.

Link?
Off-shore where?

[olddaddy]

He's a very good horse, but Meydan was very kind to speed that day.

I followed dubai the whole meet, the dirt course was speed dominant the whole meet.

[menifee]

Link?
Off-shore where?

https://www.usracing.com/kentucky-derby/odds?ref=kentucky-derby-odds

Justify now at 7/2

[GMB@BP]

Now that is ridiculous.
Justify ran a 140 pace figure easily and held on nicely in the lane.

Mendelssohn will be looking at Baffert's Boy's Butt all the way around.:lol:

at this point I am chalking up a new poster with 50 posts who makes moronic statements as just Derby month trolling.

[GMB@BP]

Justify hit the 3/4 pole a half second slower than the Oaks fillies yet I’m supposed to buy a hot pace? Regardless, he did come home fast which to me is more important.

Maybe its lost on you but you realize they did run different distances which alters the pace ratings for the time? And yes it was a fast pace in the Oaks......which fell apart!

[boys at tosconova]

part of me thinks mendy and justy will be part of a speed duel involving 1 or 2 others.

maybe it's just my man crush for audible

sorry it has to be said

[menifee]

How Audible pulled up after Florida Derby and JV jumping off for VR screams bad things to me.

[GMB@BP]

How Audible pulled up after Florida Derby and JV jumping off for VR screams bad things to me.

With so much talk about this speed dual that is going to happen Mendelssohn may be loose on the lead. I have seen stranger things in big races.

[boys at tosconova]

With so much talk about this speed dual that is going to happen Mendelssohn may be loose on the lead. I have seen stranger things in big races.


i didn;t know there was a bunch of talk regarding this

[boys at tosconova]

How Audible pulled up after Florida Derby and JV jumping off for VR screams bad things to me.

until i see confirmation of something wrong it means nothing to me. the horse literally moves like the movie version of sea biscuit or secretariat. no other horse has that claim. even mendy or justy. and audible can layoff the lead

[f2tornado]

Maybe its lost on you but you realize they did run different distances which alters the pace ratings for the time? And yes it was a fast pace in the Oaks......which fell apart!

Maybe it's lost on you the fillies in the Santa Ysabel, Santa Margarita, and The Santa Anita Oaks all at the same track during the same meet hit the 6F pole faster than Justify. 1:12.6 was modest at best. Feel free to take your favorite speed numbers hook line and sinker. If they worked so well every race then Andrew Beyer would be 30-0 picking the Derby winner instead of 0-30.

[exactatom]

With so much talk about this speed dual that is going to happen Mendelssohn may be loose on the lead. I have seen stranger things in big races.

Mendelssohn does not have to have the lead. In the race before the Dubai race, he was content to lay off the lead and make a stretch run. He also has a turf background which shies away from speed unless it is loose on the lead speed which Mendelssohn does not have.

I believe the connections saw how the Dubai track all season long (not just the night of the UAE Derby) was speed favoring and opted to take to the front.

I just do not see how a horse who made his career debut in mid February is going to be able to get 10 furlongs in early May. My thoughts have nothing to do with any curse, but rather based on a proper foundation and development of a horse.

[GMB@BP]

Mendelssohn does not have to have the lead. In the race before the Dubai race, he was content to lay off the lead and make a stretch run. He also has a turf background which shies away from speed unless it is loose on the lead speed which Mendelssohn does not have.

I believe the connections saw how the Dubai track all season long (not just the night of the UAE Derby) was speed favoring and opted to take to the front.

I just do not see how a horse who made his career debut in mid February is going to be able to get 10 furlongs in early May. My thoughts have nothing to do with any curse, but rather based on a proper foundation and development of a horse.

I more less agree with everything you said.

I do think they would prefer to have the lead to avoid the kickback. Of course how you draw, and more importantly how you break is going to change the race.

Like I have said, the best horse often does not win the Derby.

See horses like Afleet Alex and Holy Bull as prime examples.

[biggestal99]

The only reason Justify is the favorite right now is because so many people are so emotionally invested in him being the next American Pharoah they are betting with their emotions not brains. It’s the same reason Gronkowski will probably go off as the 7th or 8th betting choice even though he by far had the least chance to win as any horse that will run in the derby. People just like his name because of Gronk the football player . It’s people betting with their emotions rather than brains. Justify is clearly not anywhere near the racehorse Mendelssohn is ...

Curlin, who was immensely talented was the 7/2 ML fav for the 2007 derby (went off at 5-1 and finshed 3rd to Street Sense and Hard Spun). He also came into the derby with this kind of huge hype. Won the preakness and finished 2nd in the Belmont.

The hype will force the price down to a underlay on Justify. Similarly Mendelssohn massive win will be also be hype. Yeah they could win but why bet an underlay the tourists will be on.

Allan

[GMB@BP]

Maybe it's lost on you the fillies in the Santa Ysabel, Santa Margarita, and The Santa Anita Oaks all at the same track during the same meet hit the 6F pole faster than Justify. 1:12.6 was modest at best. Feel free to take your favorite speed numbers hook line and sinker. If they worked so well every race then Andrew Beyer would be 30-0 picking the Derby winner instead of 0-30.

How you just compared the wet fast sealed track of the Santa Ysabel to last Saturday just shows how comparing raw race times is flawed. Those two tracks were not close to the same.

Its very easy to pick against a horse going into the Derby and say "see I told ya" cause 19 of them are going to lose, so I think your probably going to be right...but not for the reasons the horse is slow from a pace standpoint based on the winter santa anita meeting raw times.

[clicknow]

I think Mendelssohn' performance is being overrated. He's a very good horse, but Meydan was very kind to speed that day.

I really wasn't looking at the order of finish.

I rewatched the UAE a few times and was looking at Mendolssohn's big gobbling stride.....feet barely touched the ground.

SA and UAE are both somewhat speed favoring, except that Meydan track is very similar to Churchill in track consistency and depth. Also known for producing a lot of kickback, so Moore was certainly smart to *send*.

For a horse who never raced on dirt, I'm somewhat impressed with Mendelssohn's 18-1/2 length win and track record @9.5F, being 1/2 brother to Beholder (so he has enough of a dirt pedigree in there) and the fact that he has already carried 134 lbs and 126 lbs. And he seems to ship well.


As I said in another topic, I also give weight to the BC Turf where M beat Flameaway, Untamed Domain, Catholic Boy, My Boy Jack and Snapper Sinclair....all of whom ran either 1st , 2nd, or 3rd on dirtin U.S. graded stakes races next out. So it's not like we have nothing to compare him to as was the case with other euro runners in the past who had not raced against any of our KY Derby entrants.

I just thought the huge gulf between giving M 30-1 and Justify 3-1 was a bit grudging to M. That's a pretty big difference considering.....

All that said, I'm picking neither of them to win the KY Derby right now, so....

[GMB@BP]

Mendelssohn is 5/1, Justify 4/1 in current betting....there is not much separating these two, certainly not 8/1 to 3/1

[boys at tosconova]

Mendelssohn is 5/1, Justify 4/1 in current betting....there is not much separating these two, certainly not 8/1 to 3/1

mendy has to take a boatload of cash. we've never seen a UAE horse like this in the derby before.

[GMB@BP]

mendy has to take a boatload of cash. we've never seen a UAE horse like this in the derby before.

Right now he is the fav in the euro markets, he wont be here but he is going to take considerable cash. If Magnum Moon does not fire I see 5/1 max.

[menifee]

Mendelssohn is 5/1, Justify 4/1 in current betting....there is not much separating these two, certainly not 8/1 to 3/1

I already gave the link for one site. Here's Wynn's latest odds. You can go and bet it now.

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2018_Derby-Wynn_4-9-plus_Triple_Crown.pdf

[Robert Fischer]

Looks like Mendelssohn can sit in the front half of the field and make a good run.

[PowerUpPaynter]

https://twitter.com/ShamIAmNot/status/984463285448687616

3 fastest JSR's ever!!! :pound:

[Vinnie]

Now that is ridiculous.
Justify ran a 140 pace figure easily and held on nicely in the lane.

Mendelssohn will be looking at Baffert's Boy's Butt all the way around.:lol:

Nicely put Tom.... :) To watch Justify work is pretty much like poetry in motion. As Mick Ruis Bolt D'Oro's trainer said he is just about as smooth as you want to be in a horse very reminiscent of American Pharoah who worked like nobody's business.

[señorclipclop]

Has anyone tried to adjust Mendelssohn's fractions due to being timed from the gate?

By a rough calculation, you can shave about 0.84 seconds off his first 1/4, if you use the 63ft run-up time from the SA Derby.

[cj]

Has anyone tried to adjust Mendelssohn's fractions due to being timed from the gate?

By a rough calculation, you can shave about 0.84 seconds off his first 1/4, if you use the 63ft run-up time from the SA Derby.

I have pars for Meydan and did figures for the dirt races on the card, pace and final time. You can find them here:

http://horseplayersassociation.org/apr18issue.pdf

[CincyHorseplayer]

I have pars for Meydan and did figures for the dirt races on the card, pace and final time. You can find them here:

http://horseplayersassociation.org/apr18issue.pdf

CJ I added the last 5 furlongs together and got a sub 61. Does that impress you even with adjustments?(half mile to end of race).

[cj]

CJ I added the last 5 furlongs together and got a sub 61. Does that impress you even with adjustments?(half mile to end of race).

I've learned not to look at segments of races to judge a horse. No segment really works in isolation unless you are trying to predict the pace and which horses might lead. Every segment in the race has some effect on those which follow it, so I prefer to look at the pieces together.

He obviously ran a very good race. The bias is the tough part to judge. I won't be dismissing him in three weeks.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I've learned not to look at segments of races to judge a horse. No segment really works in isolation unless you are trying to predict the pace and which horses might lead. Every segment in the race has some effect on those which follow it, so I prefer to look at the pieces together.

He obviously ran a very good race. The bias is the tough part to judge. I won't be dismissing him in three weeks.

I agree dominantly but the internal segments are of significance. That bias is really making it difficult to judge. Visually he looked better than all the rest. Anyway we will change our minds at least the betrayals of Judas til Derby day! Peace brother!

[papillon]

How much will US Navy Flag's Guinies Trial performance impact Mendelssohn's odds?

Given the power of recency and the poor past performances by every other UAE Derby/foriegn shipper/foriegn jockey, my thought is 8/1 might not be too far off now, esp since a good chunk are going to be thinking that US Navy Flag>Mendelssohn, and that US Navy Flag doing poorly in the BCJ and having just done poorly again reflects poorly on Mendelssohn.

Maybe something like this

Justify (Storm Cat Apollo)
Magnum Moon (Pletcher Apollo)
Good Magic (2yo Champ BCJ)
Audible (Storm Cat Pletcher)
Vino Rosso (Pletcher Wood)
Mendelssohn (Storm Cat UAE Derby)
Bolt O'ro (Lost Last Prep Musket Man)
Solomini (Lost Last Prep Musket Man)

Pletcher got his derby for this decade last year, no more for him for now.
Nyquist got the 2yo champ, BCJ, undeafeated derby winner triple 2 years ago, no more for 40 years.

So that's Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, Audible, and Good Magic in the dumpster..

Bolt O'ro and Solomini to show and place (either order), Mendelssohn to win. Inbattle of Storm Cats, why take the one with the shorter odds and the longest curse?