Castellano to ride Audible in Derby not Bolt d'Oro

[PowerUpPaynter]

Espinoza on Bolt would be pretty good...

[PoloUK6108]

Think prat might ride Noble Indy? Random but he showed out for Todd this weekend

[GMB@BP]

Who rides Magnum Moon, thats the pletcher horse i like

[LoneF]

I assume they will stick with Luis Saez unless he really gives him a bad ride in the Arkansas Derby

[LoneF]

I know it won’t happen but if I was the owner of some huge longshot in the derby that looked hopelessly overmatched than why not have Calvin Borel ride ? I know Borel has been in a serious slump since coming out of retirement but still what would you have to lose ??? You would go from having no hope to at least having just a bit of hope that Borel could rediscover some of his old derby magic, at the very least your horse would probably get mentioned twice as much as he normally would on the pre race telecast lol.

[letswastemoney]

Borel brings the value of any Derby horse way down. If he is somehow in the race, I hope he rides a horse that I don't pick.

[PoloUK6108]

I know it won’t happen but if I was the owner of some huge longshot in the derby that looked hopelessly overmatched than why not have Calvin Borel ride ? I know Borel has been in a serious slump since coming out of retirement but still what would you have to lose ??? You would go from having no hope to at least having just a bit of hope that Borel could rediscover some of his old derby magic, at the very least your horse would probably get mentioned twice as much as he normally would on the pre race telecast lol.


If you want the new Calvin, you stick Lanerie on your horse.

[Afleet]

Hope Leparoux gets the mount on Free Drop

[Bennie]

Nakatani has ridden Bolt before and Leparoux and Irad Ortiz doesn't seem to have a mount based on the listed jocks from the futures program. Prat has been riding Solomini and may stick there is he runs well at Arkansas. Grandpa Gary Stevens could always pick up a mount. I am sure the phones will be ringing the next couple weeks.

[GMB@BP]

Nakatani has ridden Bolt before and Leparoux and Irad Ortiz doesn't seem to have a mount based on the listed jocks from the futures program. Prat has been riding Solomini and may stick there is he runs well at Arkansas. Grandpa Gary Stevens could always pick up a mount. I am sure the phones will be ringing the next couple weeks.

Nakatani will probably never ride a Ruis horse again.

I would bet money its Victor.

I dont blame JC, he will never ride for Ruis again, Pletcher has 1000 horse stable. I think he may live to regret the decision.

[PowerUpPaynter]

JV picked Vino Rosso over Audible which led to JC choosing Audible over Bolt...

Vino fits a lot of derby angles. Strong exotics play...

[f2tornado]

JV picked Vino Rosso over Audible which led to JC choosing Audible over Bolt...

Vino fits a lot of derby angles. Strong exotics play...

Strong win play, IMO. The horse is already on top of my Derby checklist and he gets a rider than knows where the CD winner's circle is located. He ran a darn good time in the Wood and may very well still be on the improve. He was 17-1 via the All Others button in the final future pool and will again be overlooked Derby day. It's not every Derby you can play a logical 15-1 type choice on top.

[1GCFAN]

JV knows how Vino trounces Audible in their works and Vino will have no problem with the distance. Disappointed that JC leaves the Bolt. That may come back to haunt him, but TAP is his meal ticket.

[Robert Fischer]

Castellano had that hall of fame ride in the San Felipe where he moved prematurely and bumped the Baffert 2nd stringer on the turn and Bolt d'oro still couldn't get by and hung late. Have to give him credit for having the balls to claim foul for the stuff in the lane after how he took the turn. Another jock would have lost by open lengths in that race.

In the Santa Anita Derby he got Bolt d'Oro's best effort and couldn't contend with an effort that Justify has room to improve on.

Bolt was potentially the top horse in the division when Castellano took the mount, and now he's not. That was kind of the deal all along. Have a shot at a Derby winner, remind everyone that he can ride a West Coast star, and see how things play out in the Pletcher super-barn. Castellano helped the cause, but now the Derby is approaching and he's back with the home team.

[luisbe]

I like the fact that Johnny is riding Vino Rosso, I have futures at 42-1 on it.
I think this horse, if it improves as I think it will, simply wins the derby.

[LoneF]

My short list was Good Magic , Mendelssohn and Audible but now it’s down to two. See ya later Audible.

If a hall of fame jockey like JV who has ridden both horses is picking Vino Rosso over Audible than that’s good enough for me to believe that Audible is not the right horse this year. I still might use him underneath but no way am I using him on top.

[yankeelpn]

Why not go back to CNakatani?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Espinoza confirmed on Bolt.

[LoneF]

Just got through re watching replays of Bolts races. Never really paid much attention to it before but damn Castellano really didn’t do Bolt any favors on any of his rides. It was almost like he was intentionally trying to stiff Bolt. Of course I don’t think that’s what he was doing but he didn’t give him the greatest of rides that’s for sure. Victor Espinoza should be a huge upgrade in the saddle.

[Robert Fischer]

Just got through re watching replays of Bolts races. Never really paid much attention to it before but damn Castellano really didn’t do Bolt any favors on any of his rides. It was almost like he was intentionally trying to stiff Bolt. Of course I don’t think that’s what he was doing but he didn’t give him the greatest of rides that’s for sure. Victor Espinoza should be a huge upgrade in the saddle.

IIRC Castellano only rode Bolt twice? San Felipe, and SAD?
Going by memory, so certainly receptive to being corrected if this is inaccurate^


San Felipe -Castellano single-handedly won a G2 with a significant ride on the 2nd best contender.

Santa Anita Derby - Castellano got a top performance from Bolt d'Oro, but Smith controlled the race by opening up on the field. There was nothing any jockey could do with Bolt in that situation other than run as fast a final time as possible(✓), and hope that Justify tired.


Where are the stiff jobs?

[boys at tosconova]

Castellano knows what's up. hope the mass public doesn;t pick up on this

casty needs to channel his inner charlie sheen and "winning"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QS0q3mGPGg

[Vinman]

I find it hard to believe that Johnny V. would choose to get off Audible after winning the Florida Derby with him, given the success rate of Florida Derby winners in the Kentucky Derby in recent years.

Assuming Castellano does ride Audible in Kentucky, will that be Javier's first time on the horse in a race?

Vinman

[reckless]

Very good move by Castellano.

First he got off Bolt d'oro, a very over rated horse, imo.

And, I also think that Audible is a tad better than Vino Rosso.

It's possible Johnny V. may feel a bit obligated to Vinny Viola because of last year winning on Always Dreaming. I know, I know, there's no room for sentiment on the racetrack.

[f2tornado]

I like the fact that Johnny is riding Vino Rosso, I have futures at 42-1 on it.
I think this horse, if it improves as I think it will, simply wins the derby.

He certainly fits the Derby winning pedigree mold. Raise A Native on top with bonus Buckpasser-x on the bottom. I played him in Pool 4 via the All Others botton at 17-1. I also boxed him with Audible, Bolt, Good Magic, and Justify. I think he’s also a freebie via the All Others button in Pools 1&2 exacta combos.

JC is a good fit for Audible. I think Audible has more upside but Bolt has a much higher floor.

[Run Nicholas Run]

Hope Leparoux gets the mount on Free Drop

that would make him a double toss.

[boys at tosconova]

.And, I also think that Audible is a tad better than Vino Rosso..

i think he's better than a tad better

[reckless]

i think he's better than a tad better

Me, too, actually. Let's keep it to ourselves, OK?

[yankeelpn]

Any guess of Audibles odds for the KD 6-10/1? Thinking VR will get more attention and Audbile hopefully be under the radar "fingers crossed"

[f2tornado]

Any guess of Audibles odds for the KD 6-10/1? Thinking VR will get more attention and Audbile hopefully be under the radar "fingers crossed"

He was 7.3-1 in Pool 4 and that's probably a reasonable approximation of the Derby day odds. The Justify hype is going to offer nice prices on other contenders. 2015 is probably a good parallel when you had American Pharoah as the 2.9-1 favorite, Dortmund 4.3-1, then Carpe Diem at 7.7-1. Audible is probably at Carpe Diem's level in the pecking order... but I think a far superior horse.

[PowerUpPaynter]

If there was no Justify Bolt d'Oro would be the favorite after winning the Santa Anita Derby and running a 102 beyer. Instead your gonna get 10-1... Bolt will actually be a value play

[CincyHorseplayer]

If there was no Justify Bolt d'Oro would be the favorite after winning the Santa Anita Derby and running a 102 beyer. Instead your gonna get 10-1... Bolt will actually be a value play

I'd take that. I have Mendelssohn, Justify, and Bolt Doro top tier. Then Audible, Vino Rosso. Waiting on the Arkansas derby.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I'd take that. I have Mendelssohn, Justify, and Bolt Doro top tier. Then Audible, Vino Rosso. Waiting on the Arkansas derby.

thats easy... the best part is trying to figure out which horses will 'clunk up' into the super... i was gonna start a thread on that but figured id wait til after the arkansas derby

[GMB@BP]

If there was no Justify Bolt d'Oro would be the favorite after winning the Santa Anita Derby and running a 102 beyer. Instead your gonna get 10-1... Bolt will actually be a value play

plus Castallano getting off wont hurt. I see it the same way, no Justify and this horse is the favorite.

[boys at tosconova]

i'd be really shocked if there's not a deeper story than being told why valaquez picked vino rossi. only thing i can surmise is that he didn't have 1st rights on audible or he had too much red bull when picking his mounts.

there's really no comparing the 2 horses it's so 1 sided

[PowerUpPaynter]

i'd be really shocked if there's not a deeper story than being told why valaquez picked vino rossi. only thing i can surmise is that he didn't have 1st rights on audible or he had too much red bull when picking his mounts.

there's really no comparing the 2 horses it's so 1 sided

for what its worth Vino has the much better pedigree

[LoneF]

thats easy... the best part is trying to figure out which horses will 'clunk up' into the super... i was gonna start a thread on that but figured id wait til after the arkansas derby

I was thinking the same thing. We have all dissected the top tier horses every way imaginable but have not really spent any time on the second /third tier horses that have a realistic shot to run up into the super.

Can’t wait for that thread to get started.

[chiguy]

I actually think Victor is a perfect fit for Bolt. If I look at Victor's KD wins with Pharoah and California Chrome, those stalk and pounce trips are a fit for how Bolt would have to win it. Bolt has been battle tested with a great 2yo foundation and will be making his third start in this cycle. I think he is going to be a massive overlay and he will key all my bets on Derby day, unless of course he pulls a bad post.:kiss:

[boys at tosconova]

for what its worth Vino has the much better pedigree

that's not nearly enough to equal the scales.

vino could have followed in the tapwrit career path but his TB derby was poor. he didn't elevate his game when you thought he would even though he previously raced there. his form was pointing toward a big race and it was a major disappointment

i believe his wood win does not make up for this. they found a very easy spot for the horse. the field was awful, and he didn't even have to run fast to be part of it. just look at that field...

and no way jacinto or whatever his name is had the call on audible

[Immortal6]

that's not nearly enough to equal the scales.

vino could have followed in the tapwrit career path but his TB derby was poor. he didn't elevate his game when you thought he would even though he previously raced there. his form was pointing toward a big race and it was a major disappointment

i believe his wood win does not make up for this. they found a very easy spot for the horse. the field was awful, and he didn't even have to run fast to be part of it. just look at that field...

and no way jacinto or whatever his name is had the call on audible

You wanna talk about not having to run fast and be a part of the pace what did Audible do in the Fla. Derby? Suicidal pace set by PF and SP, Mississippi sat closest to pace, look at the order of finish. HOFBURG who just broke his maiden was 2nd and you'll try to argue strength of field for Audible, get outta here. For the record I like both horses, these two are both on my short list of win contenders for the KD...

I do like your point of comparison to tapwrit because if there were futures wagers on the Belmont Vino Rosso would definitely be at the top of my list, one of a handful of horses to start in the derby that look like they might benefit from even more distance.

[boys at tosconova]

You wanna talk about not having to run fast and be a part of the pace what did Audible do in the Fla. Derby?

you're right. it was pedestrian. but the track was known to be very slow that day. i'm not really worried about it in any sense of the word because of that.

i can't remember any horse that has a push button turbo boost like audible has. and his times previously were outstanding and off the charts

right now i like this horse more than i did tapwrit. who i believe set the track record in the TB derby before west coast beat it a couple races later last year.

[CincyHorseplayer]

you're right. it was pedestrian. but the track was known to be very slow that day. i'm not really worried about it in any sense of the word because of that.

i can't remember any horse that has a push button turbo boost like audible has. and his times previously were outstanding and off the charts

right now i like this horse more than i did tapwrit. who i believe set the track record in the TB derby before west coast beat it a couple races later last year.

I agree with that completely about Audible. Chasing down a speed duel might favor his running style but running down fast fractions and drawing off is different than just inheriting a lead. Lesser horses get "stranded at the drive inn. Labeled a fool". For lack of better words if you know what I mean. Fast is the only thing that can run down fast impressively.

[PowerUpPaynter]

that's not nearly enough to equal the scales.

vino could have followed in the tapwrit career path but his TB derby was poor. he didn't elevate his game when you thought he would even though he previously raced there. his form was pointing toward a big race and it was a major disappointment

i believe his wood win does not make up for this. they found a very easy spot for the horse. the field was awful, and he didn't even have to run fast to be part of it. just look at that field...

and no way jacinto or whatever his name is had the call on audible

Horses that do good at Tampa seem to tank sometimes and horses that suck at Tampa excell on other tracks. 90% of Tampa derby prep races I completely toss.