THE INSANITY CURRENTLY GRIPPING THE INDUSTRY HAS TO END NOW!

[PaceAdvantage]

This is the straw that breaks the camel's back for me. I've pooh poohed people in the past for complaining about late odds drops, but this one was out of this world insane.

I'm tired of it.

Keeneland Race 5.
TWELVE horse field.
Wire-to-wire winner was 9-1 at 0mtp.
Wire-to-wire winner was 9/2 after she crossed the finish line.

If the industry doesn't start seriously investigating and putting the breaks on whomever or whatever is causing this rampant and massive pool shenanigans, we the betting public will have no choice but to throw this game into the trash bin where it belongs under these current operating conditions.

I've loved this game to death for over 30 years, but what has been happening lately is nothing short of perverse. Everyone knows it's happening, everyone knows why it's happening, but the powers that be will never put an end to it unless we force them to, and honestly, I don't see that happening.

This is truly a sad day for me.

[PaceAdvantage]

40% of the win pool appears at Keeneland AFTER the race goes off.

#feelsbadman

[thaskalos]

If you can't bet after the bell in today's game, then you are facing an effective takeout of at least 30% on the win end...and 40% on the exotics.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't think people are betting after the bell. For the record.

But when 40% of the pool doesn't show up until after the gates open, even at a huge venue like Keeneland, never mind the tiny tracks, we have a serious problem on our hands.

[thaskalos]

I don't think people are betting after the bell. For the record.

I do. How else can all the late money focus on only one horse?

[lamboguy]

i have watched the boss's thread now for 2 months. what i have picked up on is that for the few winners he has., all of them have gone down in price. the ones that lost for the most part have gone up in odds.

you may want to believe this is pure coincidence, but trust me, ITS NOT. i am an expert at after the bell betting because i spent 2 years of my life doing precisely that. but my time has passed and i simply don't know where to get down after the race starts these days. but someone is, i promise you that much.

[GMB@BP]

This was not past posting, the horse actually broke a smidge slow for a front runner, this was massive late money.

Now the inside seems like its biased to me so I guess the KY sharps unloaded on the inside speed.

Let see how Uppercut does in the next race, she has real speed as well.

[thaskalos]

I have been researching and playing this game seriously since 1982...and I dare say that few people here have pushed as much money through the betting windows as I have. I've had a passion for this game all along...and it hurts me to say things that label me as a "hater" of this game, or as some sort of "conspiracy theorist". But, IMO, this game is so overrun by fraud and incompetence that I can't believe anything that anyone tells me when it comes to the game's "integrity", or lack thereof.

Financial woes have sent the horse racing industry begging to the politicians for casino licences...and the grandstands are empty during the racing meets of the most renowned tracks in the land. And the industry has had to roll out the red carpet for some well-heeled Wall-Street boys, who are now allowed to wreak havoc on the tote board to the detriment of the rest of us. In the absence of a unified governing body...who knows what kind of bargain a "Whale" can strike for himself...when he promises to infuse an astronomical amount of money into the mutuel pools, during the "troubled times" that our game currently finds itself in?

When things get desperate, even an HONEST business enterprise has a difficult time maintaining its virtue. Imagine what can happen if the enterprise is dishonest to begin with...

[Poindexter]

This is the straw that breaks the camel's back for me. I've pooh poohed people in the past for complaining about late odds drops, but this one was out of this world insane.

I'm tired of it.

Keeneland Race 5.
TWELVE horse field.
Wire-to-wire winner was 9-1 at 0mtp.
Wire-to-wire winner was 9/2 after she crossed the finish line.

If the industry doesn't start seriously investigating and putting the breaks on whomever or whatever is causing this rampant and massive pool shenanigans, we the betting public will have no choice but to throw this game into the trash bin where it belongs under these current operating conditions.

I've loved this game to death for over 30 years, but what has been happening lately is nothing short of perverse. Everyone knows it's happening, everyone knows why it's happening, but the powers that be will never put an end to it unless we force them to, and honestly, I don't see that happening.

This is truly a sad day for me.

Yet another mugging at the racetrack. Imagine that.

Now that you have seen the light, perhaps it is time to lead the boycott.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

I do. How else can all the late money focus on only one horse?

Agree. It's uncanny and becoming too much to tolerate. I discounted these claims for too long. I see 3-1 shots routinely going out the gate and by the stretch they are hammered down. Who are these magicians putting these perfect wagers in just under the wire? It's not like these horses are obvious by any stretch. No doubt in my mind coming from a Software / IT background something is up.

[Dave Schwartz]

I don't think people are betting after the bell. For the record.

But when 40% of the pool doesn't show up until after the gates open, even at a huge venue like Keeneland, never mind the tiny tracks, we have a serious problem on our hands.

PA,

I know you are steamed. Welcome to the club.

Seriously, the answer is not that complicated but it does take a change in thinking.

What I have done... and many of my users have done... is to simply stop using the tote altogether. Almost 4 years since I stopped.

Amazingly, my handicapping life is actually BETTER.

What we do is create what I used to call "phony odds." Now we call them "object odds" or simply "aML," which stands for "artificial Morning Line."

It is based upon the idea that we can predict How the Public USUALLY bets the money on a horse like this one.

The driving force is what we call a handicapping object. That is nothing but 5 or 6 factors weighted together, and then normalized to 100%. The individual horse percentages become the "phony pool."

All the factors should be "high-level" factors. Just think in terms of factors that have high hit rates because they will always correlate with the tote board.

The primary factor is almost always Morning Line. Others include factors like BRIS Prime Power or HDW's Projected Speed Rating. Think of which factors you might add beyond that.

BTW, I actually use the ranks in these factors as opposed to raw ratings.


Not only is there great freedom in this, but there is a bit of logic as well, in the sense that horses SHOULD be bet based upon HOW THE LOOK (in terms of important factors).

Now, races with FTS and foreign horses present a problem. Even HSH does not handle that well. Much easier to overcome in a spreadsheet.

BTW, do not think for a minute that this approach is going to do a near-perfect job. There is no such thing. Not even the whales, who have the benefit of not only a much more complex approach than a 5-factor object and also tote board patterns.

But trust me when I say that it really doesn't matter. If you implement this you will find that you are no longer hitting a moving target.

Will you bet a horse expecting to get 6/1 and wind up at 5/2? Absolutely. You will also see 12/1 pay 4/5. Why? Because the horse really shouldn't have been 4/5 based upon how good he looked.

In fact, I actually built a seminar called The Renegade Handicapper (http://store.pacemakestherace.com/renegade-handicapper-download/) around this concept:

1. Create the Phony Odds.
2. Pick Contenders based upon your handicapping factors.
3. Create probabilities from the REAL ODDS.
4. Penalize the Non-Contenders' probabilities hugely and make new probabilities.
5. Bet into the Phony Odds with your Probabilities.

If there is sufficient interest, I will arrange a free seminar to teach people how to do this. One MUST expect that it will take some work.


Dave
PS: I've not talked about it in a long time but I am really within 6 weeks or so of releasing the beta version of my new SMALL DATA software. That software will have a BUNCH of these aML objects built in.

[JustRalph]

I’m convinced somebody is betting after the bell and have been for 3-4 yrs

[Denny]

Isn't it time for tracks to use computer-generated ML's?

Look at some of the gross errors made by the track handicapper.

Example: Wesley Ward's Bound for Nowhere in yesterday's Shakertown 20/1 ml. Opened around 7/1, went off a little higher around 8/1 and won.

[jay68802]

Anymore, I do not know what to think. I do not believe that there is past posting going on. But instances like this, and many others always make me think twice. 40% of the pool being put into the pools in the last seconds is standard for Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Aqueduct, and now Keeneland. It also does not seem to matter the size of the pool. If there is $100,000 dollars in the pool when they are loading, $40,000 is bet after that. If there is $200,000 in the pool, $80,000 is bet late. I think that along with the amount being wagered late, there is also money that was wagered early, and canceled. The odds up to post time is a dog and pony show. You are seeing what others want you to see.
The accuracy of the late money is too accurate. There is no way this money is being wagered with out information that is not public. We are playing against the people who own and train these animals. They might not be exactly who is wagering the money, but the horsemen are receiving some of it. Follow the wagering pattern of the horses trained by Pletcher, Fawlks, Rodriguez, Baffert. Did you see how Justify was bet yesterday. He was going up against one of the top 5 3 year olds out there, but opened at 1-5, and the money kept coming. You can not tell me, know matter how good the horse looked on paper, that the wagering should have been that lopsided.

You might not have seen these, from Tampa. Yes, they had a "tote delay", but the tote delay did not stop the winner from going from 7-2 to 5-2 after the gates opened.

[PaceAdvantage]

Anymore, I do not know what to think. I do not believe that there is past posting going on. But instances like this, and many others always make me think twice. 40% of the pool being put into the pools in the last seconds is standard for Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Aqueduct, and now Keeneland. It also does not seem to matter the size of the pool. If there is $100,000 dollars in the pool when they are loading, $40,000 is bet after that. If there is $200,000 in the pool, $80,000 is bet late. I think that along with the amount being wagered late, there is also money that was wagered early, and canceled. The odds up to post time is a dog and pony show. You are seeing what others want you to see.
The accuracy of the late money is too accurate. There is no way this money is being wagered with out information that is not public. We are playing against the people who own and train these animals. They might not be exactly who is wagering the money, but the horsemen are receiving some of it. Follow the wagering pattern of the horses trained by Pletcher, Fawlks, Rodriguez, Baffert. Did you see how Justify was bet yesterday. He was going up against one of the top 5 3 year olds out there, but opened at 1-5, and the money kept coming. You can not tell me, know matter how good the horse looked on paper, that the wagering should have been that lopsided.

You might not have seen these, from Tampa. Yes, they had a "tote delay", but the tote delay did not stop the winner from going from 7-2 to 5-2 after the gates opened.Justify was a lead pipe cinch to win that race. That's a poor example to use.

[pandy]

Maloney covered this in his book, and actually did find instances of past posting, but most of the time it's just late money that comes in and doesn't get counted until after the race starts. All this really proves is that there are some good players out there who are looking for overlays and a lot of money comes in late. The only way to stop this type of odds change after the start of the race would be to stop taking bets a couple of minutes before the race starts, but I don't see that happening.

[onefast99]

I have been researching and playing this game seriously since 1982...and I dare say that few people here have pushed as much money through the betting windows as I have. I've had a passion for this game all along...and it hurts me to say things that label me as a "hater" of this game, or as some sort of "conspiracy theorist". But, IMO, this game is so overrun by fraud and incompetence that I can't believe anything that anyone tells me when it comes to the game's "integrity", or lack thereof.

Financial woes have sent the horse racing industry begging to the politicians for casino licences...and the grandstands are empty during the racing meets of the most renowned tracks in the land. And the industry has had to roll out the red carpet for some well-heeled Wall-Street boys, who are now allowed to wreak havoc on the tote board to the detriment of the rest of us. In the absence of a unified governing body...who knows what kind of bargain a "Whale" can strike for himself...when he promises to infuse an astronomical amount of money into the mutuel pools, during the "troubled times" that our game currently finds itself in?

When things get desperate, even an HONEST business enterprise has a difficult time maintaining its virtue. Imagine what can happen if the enterprise is dishonest to begin with...

So the numbers at GP now a year round facility(GPW break)doesn’t prove the product can get better? How many times do the odds change on the winners at GP? It seems running the race approximately eight minutes after post time may indeed have solved this problem but I don’t have any scientific information to prove that. Maybe someone else does.

[Jeff P]

It's every bit as bad at Gulfstream as anywhere else.

Dragging post times by 7-8 minutes per race (every race) doesn't solve anything.


-jp

.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Knowing what is going on is exactly what has made me cut down on the number of days I play. Maybe 20-25 days a year in total, down from 3-4 days a week.

It really is sad to see.

[jay68802]

Justify was a lead pipe cinch to win that race. That's a poor example to use.

Yeah, i realize that. Just trying to use a race that everyone remembers and knows the horses involved. The only knock on the horse was he was facing a proven stakes winner. Handicapping points aside, if there was any doubt about his chances of winning, he would have been in the 6 to 9-5 range when the odds opened and would have maybe drifted a little higher, if Baffert or any one connected to the horse had any doubts.

[jay68802]

It's every bit as bad at Gulfstream as anywhere else.

Dragging post times by 7-8 minutes per race (every race) doesn't solve anything.


-jp

.

True, the odds change just as many times there. The post drag is just keeping the pools open longer so they get bigger pools.

[Jeff P]

I can understand why the biggest bettors wait until the last possible second. I'm guilty of that myself.

The longer you wait before pulling the trigger (without getting shut out) the higher the percentage of final money present in the pools.

The closer the pools are to final - the more "added info" you can infer from the tote.

Track video (at least the Roberts Communications track video the everyday player who bets through an ADW gets to see) has a delay. Sometimes that delay is significant.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the whale teams have figured out a way to get track video streamed to them in real time. Doesn't have to be anything elaborate. Station an agent on track with a smart phone. Turn the camera on and zoom in on the starting gate.

Imo, anybody betting significant money whose models are using the tote as inputs would be crazy not to do something like that.

Imo, doing something like that gets you an information edge over all of the other players who are relying on the track video racing decision makers in their infinite wisdom decided to purchase from Roberts on the cheap a few years ago.

Bit of a rant, I know. But if you as a racing decision maker decide to purchase track video from a vendor on the cheap and that video is delayed 15-20 seconds minimum:

Are you really going to sit there and tell me with a straight face the largest bettors on the planet are above figuring out a way to exploit that?

Methinks everything being talked about in this thread falls into the category of chickens coming home to roost.


-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

Roberts isn't delayed by 15-20 seconds.

You know within a second or two when the pools close on AmWager. The interface tells you exactly when the pools close.

The race starts on video within 2-3 seconds after the pools close on AmWager.

[Jeff P]

Are you sure?

I've been on the phone (handful of times) with someone who happened to be on track. (Derby Preps. Arlington Million. Breeders Cup., etc.)

Guarantee you what I hear coming over the phone (announcer's call/crowd noise. etc.) happens several seconds before I get to see it and hear it watching video from my ADW.

--EDIT: Also get shut out 8-10 times a year (race closed) watching track video with horses in front of the gate but not a single horse loaded yet.

Based on that I formed an opinion (expressed in my rant.)

Am I wrong? Is my cable company somehow delaying the internet to my particular neighborhood?

--EDIT: That said, a delay of even 2-3 seconds is an eternity to a computer.


-jp

.

[burnsy]

True, the odds change just as many times there. The post drag is just keeping the pools open longer so they get bigger pools.

That's why they gotta do what Pandy said. Whether a track drags their feet or not........that's not the problem. The windows and all bets should shut down a couple minutes before and the odds finalized. With the technology today it doesn't matter whether people are cheating or not. As everyone can see the "look" is suspicious and not good for the game. They never figure out, when this many of your customers complain.......you got a problem.

And there's credence to what Thask is saying too, whether people are cheating or not. The business is desperate.........money (handle) trumps "appearances" or being strict with people that can move the odds like this. It takes a lot of dough to move the odds that much at these bigger tracks. If they crack down, its not really in their financial interest to do so without taking another blow the business. When no ones at the track........you ain't making gate money, beer money or any money off the facility itself. They are pretty much at the will of people dumping bets like this....and I'll say this again. Whether they are cheating or not.....at least with final odds you won't see this sort of thing happening when they are coming down the stretch. But what do i know, complaining in this game has been poo pooed for years and that's more than half the problem. The complainers are nut jobs or conspiracy theorist.......:lol:. Even after people are indicted or banned......

[cj]

I don't think people are betting after the bell. For the record.

But when 40% of the pool doesn't show up until after the gates open, even at a huge venue like Keeneland, never mind the tiny tracks, we have a serious problem on our hands.

It isn't just that it is so much late, it is that it is the smartest money late betting at a much different price point than most people.

[PaceAdvantage]

Are you sure?

I've been on the phone (handful of times) with someone who happened to be on track. (Derby Preps. Arlington Million. Breeders Cup., etc.)

Guarantee you what I hear coming over the phone (announcer's call/crowd noise. etc.) happens several seconds before I get to see it and hear it watching video from my ADW.

--EDIT: Also get shut out 8-10 times a year (race closed) watching track video with horses in front of the gate but not a single horse loaded yet.

Based on that I formed an opinion (expressed in my rant.)

Am I wrong? Is my cable company somehow delaying the internet to my particular neighborhood?

--EDIT: That said, a delay of even 2-3 seconds is an eternity to a computer.


-jp

.It's delayed, but not 15-20 seconds. Or maybe I'm wrong. Never seemed that long to me.

[cj]

There is no way this money is being wagered with out information that is not public.

The whole post is good, but I really want to focus on this part. I'll pick on Gulfstream but this really could apply to lots of tracks, particularly those with Trakus.


There are timing errors galore.
You don't know the real distance of the turf races including run up
You don't know the time of the entire race
The fractions are totally skewed due to run up, especially when changing it for the same distance on the same day


Does anyone really think that not only do the CRW teams have better information, but that it isn't being provided to them when possible?

There is so much more we don't know that people could buy and exploit against the general public. I could have made this list three times longer easily. Feel free to add to it.

[PaceAdvantage]

The windows and all bets should shut down a couple minutes before and the odds finalized.This wouldn't cure the problem for me. If everyone knows the pools close at 0mtp, what difference would that make compared to everyone knowing the pools close once the gate opens?

The ONLY thing this would solve is the "public perception" that someone is past posting because the odds change after the race starts.

I don't care much about that.

I care about the fact that I bet a horse at 9-1 when they're just starting the gate load, at Keeneland, in a very large pool, and the horse wins and I only get back $11.

That's what I care about the most.

Now how do you solve that? Closing the pools before the race starts won't solve that problem at all.

[cj]

It's delayed, but not 15-20 seconds. Or maybe I'm wrong. Never seemed that long to me.

I've got bets in and watched them break seconds later on my television and on my computer. I'd be really surprised if ADWs were given some extra leeway because of the lag. That would be figured out and taken advantage of without question in my opinion just by having someone on track on the phone with you.

I should note I'm on Dish on TV which has even more lag than standard cable for sure.

[cj]

Isn't it time for tracks to use computer-generated ML's?

Look at some of the gross errors made by the track handicapper.

Example: Wesley Ward's Bound for Nowhere in yesterday's Shakertown 20/1 ml. Opened around 7/1, went off a little higher around 8/1 and won.

Only if they buy them from the CRW teams! :lol::lol::lol:

[cj]

Maloney covered this in his book, and actually did find instances of past posting, but most of the time it's just late money that comes in and doesn't get counted until after the race starts. All this really proves is that there are some good players out there who are looking for overlays and a lot of money comes in late. The only way to stop this type of odds change after the start of the race would be to stop taking bets a couple of minutes before the race starts, but I don't see that happening.

He saw with his own eyes several times that windows weren't closed and that people bet after the bell. I get that stuff happens, but the response from the industry as he detailed is appalling. The last chapter of that book is quite eye opening and worth the price of the book in my opinion.

[cj]

So the numbers at GP now a year round facility(GPW break)doesn’t prove the product can get better? How many times do the odds change on the winners at GP? It seems running the race approximately eight minutes after post time may indeed have solved this problem but I don’t have any scientific information to prove that. Maybe someone else does.

Gulfstream is as bad as anyone else with odds changes after the break. I still think the post drag is done for a reason, and it isn't to help guys like me and PA.

[cj]

I do agree with Dave here. You have to throw all the old ideas about value out the window and formulate a new approach. You have to be able to come up with a better way to predict the final odds. Easier said than done of course but being passive and a slave to the tote isn't going to cut it any more, and hasn't for several years. It is only going to get worse.

[Denny]

The post drag by GP boosts business.

It also eats into other tracks open window between races.
NYRA being the prime target.
GP gets 20 minutes of exposure between races to NY's 10 for every 30 minutes of the time both run concurrently.

(I could explain if anyone is interested. It's quite clever of Gulfstream to do it.)

I've pointed this out at another website and they pooh pooh me.
Now I'm banned from posting for pointing out errors and inconsistencies.

(Their main advertisers happen to be TSG owned GP and Xpressbet)

[jay68802]

The whole post is good, but I really want to focus on this part. I'll pick on Gulfstream but this really could apply to lots of tracks, particularly those with Trakus.


There are timing errors galore.
You don't know the real distance of the turf races including run up
You don't know the time of the entire race
The fractions are totally skewed due to run up, especially when changing it for the same distance on the same day


Does anyone really think that not only do the CRW teams have better information, but that it isn't being provided to them when possible?

There is so much more we don't know that people could buy and exploit against the general public. I could have made this list three times longer easily. Feel free to add to it.

When Trackus first started, I was excited. Mostly because the technology could track a horse from the moment the gate opened. Thus, I figured the information would be valuable. On their website they proudly proclaimed that the technology would provide a better customer experience, and the information would be invaluable for racing insiders. That's when I realized that the information gathered was going to be the same information we get now. And to add to your list, one of your favorites, "About 7.5f".

[paulbenny]

I understand this pretty well. Lets keep it simple. On track handle for the most part is dwarfed by off track on line wagering. The "pipes" or lines of compilation for wagering are all over the country and consolidated at various levels. It is cycled and after post a lot of money is still coming in. The arbitrage people who bet a lot, and sometimes use computer algorithms, take advantage of the perceived odds at post and simple bet a lot. Occasionally this breaks down and lets face it, there have been instances of past post wagering. However, it is rare. It is not that complicated. You focused on the winner situation but they lose too, going from 12-1 to 9-2 and running out and you would not notice or do not care.

[burnsy]

This wouldn't cure the problem for me. If everyone knows the pools close at 0mtp, what difference would that make compared to everyone knowing the pools close once the gate opens?

The ONLY thing this would solve is the "public perception" that someone is past posting because the odds change after the race starts.

I don't care much about that.

I care about the fact that I bet a horse at 9-1 when they're just starting the gate load, at Keeneland, in a very large pool, and the horse wins and I only get back $11.

That's what I care about the most.

Now how do you solve that? Closing the pools before the race starts won't solve that problem at all.

I hear you. But that's the biggest problem going with this game. (Public perception).

The public thinks the game is old , dying and rigged....that's the Triple Crown of crappy business and lack of public interest.

Hell, the other thread (on this)is 41 pages long with over 27,000 views.

It is a large pool, like i said, it takes a lot to move it that much. Many people would see that as an unfair advantage. And they don't want to see it as the horse crosses the wire. The tracks are virtually asking for these responses!

Public perception is what makes the world go round...that's the point you are missing. The public perception is that this game is going down hill. Your perception is that its insanity and it is. They do the same thing over and over again expecting better results....and it just keeps getting worse. Pretty much defining.....insanity.

[cj]

When Trackus first started, I was excited. Mostly because the technology could track a horse from the moment the gate opened. Thus, I figured the information would be valuable. On their website they proudly proclaimed that the technology would provide a better customer experience, and the information would be invaluable for racing insiders. That's when I realized that the information gathered was going to be the same information we get now. And to add to your list, one of your favorites, "About 7.5f".

The difference is that there is more information available that we don't get. But obviously some people do get it, or why else is it available?

They time from the gate and they know the exact distance. They can compare opening quarters, halves, etc. regardless of run up because they can do it from the gate. They also know exactly when horses lose ground which is pretty important. I'm sure there is more I'm forgetting off the top of my head.

Are HD replays in a computer friendly format available for sale? Probably. Why would I think they aren't for the right price or as a perk for betting big money? This stuff is just the tip of the iceberg.

[Michael]

This is the straw that breaks the camel's back for me. I've pooh poohed people in the past for complaining about late odds drops, but this one was out of this world insane.

I'm tired of it.

Keeneland Race 5.
TWELVE horse field.
Wire-to-wire winner was 9-1 at 0mtp.
Wire-to-wire winner was 9/2 after she crossed the finish line.

If the industry doesn't start seriously investigating and putting the breaks on whomever or whatever is causing this rampant and massive pool shenanigans, we the betting public will have no choice but to throw this game into the trash bin where it belongs under these current operating conditions.

I've loved this game to death for over 30 years, but what has been happening lately is nothing short of perverse. Everyone knows it's happening, everyone knows why it's happening, but the powers that be will never put an end to it unless we force them to, and honestly, I don't see that happening.

This is truly a sad day for me.

Same boat. I'm with you man. The last time I took horse racing serious was before Dale Baird passed away. It's very difficult for me to take the sport serious with this amount of nonsense. For all intensive purposes I'm a casual at best these days bc of several reasons. I think the major reason is the short fields, which I won't bet anything that doesn't have ten entries or more now. 2) the rake and breakage is absurd... i might as well go play poker 3) compounding #2 is the issue of astronomical late odds changes. It was bad years ago too, but it was never this bad. I use to adjust but it's no longer reasonable imo. It should be looked into.

For the record I was a winning player while Dale graced mountaineer, and I'm not just complaining for the sake of my poor judgement.

[GMB@BP]

I just dont play much anymore. I dont have time to bet enough to get a rebate and playing against CRW teams has made it just about impossible, I do break even or shade positive a little.

I have moved on to tourney play.

[thaskalos]

I do agree with Dave here. You have to throw all the old ideas about value out the window and formulate a new approach. You have to be able to come up with a better way to predict the final odds. Easier said than done of course but being passive and a slave to the tote isn't going to cut it any more, and hasn't for several years. It is only going to get worse.

IMO...the only way to predict the closing odds with any decree of accuracy is by "handicapping" the late-betting Whales. And, since their handicapping and betting methods are WAY more sophisticated than ours...that isn't likely to ever happen. And...if things get even worse for us in the future, which is exactly what we both think will happen...then, good night Irene.

[Franco Santiago]

PA,

I know you are steamed. Welcome to the club.

Seriously, the answer is not that complicated but it does take a change in thinking.

What I have done... and many of my users have done... is to simply stop using the tote altogether. Almost 4 years since I stopped.

Amazingly, my handicapping life is actually BETTER.

What we do is create what I used to call "phony odds." Now we call them "object odds" or simply "aML," which stands for "artificial Morning Line."

It is based upon the idea that we can predict How the Public USUALLY bets the money on a horse like this one.

The driving force is what we call a handicapping object. That is nothing but 5 or 6 factors weighted together, and then normalized to 100%. The individual horse percentages become the "phony pool."

All the factors should be "high-level" factors. Just think in terms of factors that have high hit rates because they will always correlate with the tote board.

The primary factor is almost always Morning Line. Others include factors like BRIS Prime Power or HDW's Projected Speed Rating. Think of which factors you might add beyond that.

BTW, I actually use the ranks in these factors as opposed to raw ratings.


Not only is there great freedom in this, but there is a bit of logic as well, in the sense that horses SHOULD be bet based upon HOW THE LOOK (in terms of important factors).

Now, races with FTS and foreign horses present a problem. Even HSH does not handle that well. Much easier to overcome in a spreadsheet.

BTW, do not think for a minute that this approach is going to do a near-perfect job. There is no such thing. Not even the whales, who have the benefit of not only a much more complex approach than a 5-factor object and also tote board patterns.

But trust me when I say that it really doesn't matter. If you implement this you will find that you are no longer hitting a moving target.

Will you bet a horse expecting to get 6/1 and wind up at 5/2? Absolutely. You will also see 12/1 pay 4/5. Why? Because the horse really shouldn't have been 4/5 based upon how good he looked.

In fact, I actually built a seminar called The Renegade Handicapper (http://store.pacemakestherace.com/renegade-handicapper-download/) around this concept:
1. Create the Phony Odds.
2. Pick Contenders based upon your handicapping factors.
3. Create probabilities from the REAL ODDS.
4. Penalize the Non-Contenders' probabilities hugely and make new probabilities.
5. Bet into the Phony Odds with your Probabilities.If there is sufficient interest, I will arrange a free seminar to teach people how to do this. One MUST expect that it will take some work.


Dave
PS: I've not talked about it in a long time but I am really within 6 weeks or so of releasing the beta version of my new SMALL DATA software. That software will have a BUNCH of these aML objects built in.

I love your solution. I use something very similar and I agree with you (not that it matters what *I* think).

Unfortunately, for the majority, the real problem is not the tote. It is their core belief that that the game is tainted, rigged against them, unbeatable, or otherwise crooked. This limiting belief has already doomed them and no amount of "coaching" or teaching them (as you have done above) is going to help. In fact, to them, the game will always be just crooked enough to make them lose. Sad, but true.

[Denny]

Why do we need a ML???

Isn't it just a way to get you to bet???

Or, in some cases, a way to mislead the public???

[Buckeye]

40% of the win pool appears at Keeneland AFTER the race goes off.

#feelsbadman

You just found this out?

[PaceAdvantage]

Why do we need a ML???

Isn't it just a way to get you to bet???

Or, in some cases, a way to mislead the public???Believe it or not, I use the M/L to quickly prescreen whether a race is playable or not. It's not the only factor I use of course, but I *DO* find it quite useful.

[thaskalos]

I love your solution. I use something very similar and I agree with you (not that it matters what *I* think).

Unfortunately, for the majority, the real problem is not the tote. It is their core belief that that the game is tainted, rigged against them, unbeatable, or otherwise crooked. This limiting belief has already doomed them and no amount of "coaching" or teaching them (as you have done above) is going to help. In fact, to them, the game will always be just crooked enough to make them lose. Sad, but true.

You don't necessarily have to be a losing player in order to believe that the game is "tainted", or "otherwise crooked".

[Buckeye]

Let's all be losing players . . .

I don't think so!

Somebody has to win after all.

[Denny]

PA,

Not sure how you can depend on it for anything.

I've personally spoken to more than one ML maker.
They said they spend about five minutes per race making a line. Sometimes less!
How can that be taking everything into account from the thousands of bits of information on each horse???

One guy said he purposely puts odds far lower on longshots so as to not "embarrass" the connections.

It's a disservice to the betting public imo.

Sometimes it's even done by someone filling in for somebody who took the day off. Who knows who it is on those days. The identity of the line maker isn't even given to us.

A well written computer program could do a far better job of evaluation and would be superior imo and be far more reliable.

Just another example of how little tracks care about us. Kind of expected.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA,

Not sure how you can depend on it for anything.

I've personally spoken to more than one ML maker.
They said they spend about five minutes per race making a line. Sometimes less!
How can that be taking everything into account from the thousands of bits of information on each horse???

One guy said he purposely puts odds far lower on longshots so as to not "embarrass" the connections.

It's a disservice to the betting public imo.

Sometimes it's even done by someone filling in for somebody who took the day off. Who knows who it is on those days. The identity of the line maker isn't even given to us.

A well written computer program could do a far better job of evaluation and would be superior imo and be far more reliable.

Just another example of how little tracks care about us. Kind of expected.I'm sure everything you write happens now and again at various tracks here and there...despite that, I still personally find it useful.

As for computer lines, I think Harness racing has dabbled in those, and of course, there was a backlash...nobody is happy with anything.

So you make do.

[headhawg]

Between this thread and threads like it, plus what CJ just posted about the SA Pick 6...

[JustRalph]

Let's all be losing players . . .

I don't think so!

Somebody has to win after all.

They’re called tracks and trainers

[Denny]

They’re called tracks and trainers

I'd include Jockeys.

[cj]

I'd include Jockeys.

I don't begrudge those guys a cent.

[JustRalph]

I don't begrudge those guys a cent.

Gotta agree with that, after all is said and done.....tough tough life

[Tom]

The whole post is good, but I really want to focus on this part. I'll pick on Gulfstream but this really could apply to lots of tracks, particularly those with Trakus.


There are timing errors galore.
You don't know the real distance of the turf races including run up
You don't know the time of the entire race
The fractions are totally skewed due to run up, especially when changing it for the same distance on the same day


Does anyone really think that not only do the CRW teams have better information, but that it isn't being provided to them when possible?

There is so much more we don't know that people could buy and exploit against the general public. I could have made this list three times longer easily. Feel free to add to it.

Exactly! :ThmbUp:
What other reason would Trkus be prevented from providing certain times.

YOU better be careful, CJ....no telling who you piss off by proving good figures! :eek::lol:

However, I STILL say past posting is going on regularly.
No one will ever convince me. As you point, track sod not know how to time, so what good is their telling us when a pool closed?

[storyline]

Believe it or not, I use the M/L to quickly prescreen whether a race is playable or not. It's not the only factor I use of course, but I *DO* find it quite useful.

Personally I almost never look at morning lines. I doubt that line makers use their ML when making a wager... think about that

[PaceAdvantage]

Personally I almost never look at morning lines. I doubt that line makers use their ML when making a wager... think about thatI don't use the ML when making a wager either.

[storyline]

Exactly! :ThmbUp:
What other reason would Trkus be prevented from providing certain times.

YOU better be careful, CJ....no telling who you piss off by proving good figures! :eek::lol:

However, I STILL say past posting is going on regularly.
No one will ever convince me. As you point, track sod not know how to time, so what good is their telling us when a pool closed?

I believe this to be true as well

I'll go a step further and say that others are getting accurate running times, while the betting public often gets hand-timed races.

Past posting and bad timing of races have been going on imo for years.

Are whales buying influence, if I had to bet..........

[JohnGalt1]

PA,

I know you are steamed. Welcome to the club.

Seriously, the answer is not that complicated but it does take a change in thinking.

What I have done... and many of my users have done... is to simply stop using the tote altogether. Almost 4 years since I stopped.

Amazingly, my handicapping life is actually BETTER.

What we do is create what I used to call "phony odds." Now we call them "object odds" or simply "aML," which stands for "artificial Morning Line."

It is based upon the idea that we can predict How the Public USUALLY bets the money on a horse like this one.

The driving force is what we call a handicapping object. That is nothing but 5 or 6 factors weighted together, and then normalized to 100%. The individual horse percentages become the "phony pool."

All the factors should be "high-level" factors. Just think in terms of factors that have high hit rates because they will always correlate with the tote board.

The primary factor is almost always Morning Line. Others include factors like BRIS Prime Power or HDW's Projected Speed Rating. Think of which factors you might add beyond that.

BTW, I actually use the ranks in these factors as opposed to raw ratings.


Not only is there great freedom in this, but there is a bit of logic as well, in the sense that horses SHOULD be bet based upon HOW THE LOOK (in terms of important factors).

Now, races with FTS and foreign horses present a problem. Even HSH does not handle that well. Much easier to overcome in a spreadsheet.

BTW, do not think for a minute that this approach is going to do a near-perfect job. There is no such thing. Not even the whales, who have the benefit of not only a much more complex approach than a 5-factor object and also tote board patterns.

But trust me when I say that it really doesn't matter. If you implement this you will find that you are no longer hitting a moving target.

Will you bet a horse expecting to get 6/1 and wind up at 5/2? Absolutely. You will also see 12/1 pay 4/5. Why? Because the horse really shouldn't have been 4/5 based upon how good he looked.

In fact, I actually built a seminar called The Renegade Handicapper (http://store.pacemakestherace.com/renegade-handicapper-download/) around this concept:

1. Create the Phony Odds.
2. Pick Contenders based upon your handicapping factors.
3. Create probabilities from the REAL ODDS.
4. Penalize the Non-Contenders' probabilities hugely and make new probabilities.
5. Bet into the Phony Odds with your Probabilities.

If there is sufficient interest, I will arrange a free seminar to teach people how to do this. One MUST expect that it will take some work.


Dave
PS: I've not talked about it in a long time but I am really within 6 weeks or so of releasing the beta version of my new SMALL DATA software. That software will have a BUNCH of these aML objects built in.

I agree with this philosophy.

I liked a horse in the 9th at Tampa Friday. 3-1 ML. I'll take 3-1 all day, but I figured everyone would like it and thought it would be bet down too much. It won and paid $5.40 without my money on it.

[Prioress Ply]

It's one thing to have a bad morning line. Happens all the time and everyone is on an equal playing field with it. It's quite another thing to see the situation PA describes in his original post. Like this one that went from 11-1 to 6-1.

https://twitter.com/Everylastdime/status/982385114356183040

[JustRalph]

I’ve done it. You can too.

Stop playing. Until you do.....nothing changes.

I play a couple times a year, tops. Put your money some place else

[thaskalos]

Like TVG's Peter Lurie says..."You gotta take what they give you". :rolleyes:

[Prioress Ply]

And he certainly is an impartial source for that assessment. :D

[Track Phantom]

I do. How else can all the late money focus on only one horse?
I think virtually every post in this thread is excellent. This is the post that gets me. It is the most perplexing factor for me to believe on its face. I can deal with a reasonable percentage of cases where inside information is accurate. But I can tell from meeting most trainers and owners, they are hardly experts.

One example, just for fun....I got to hang around Noel Hickey for a season at Canterbury Park in 2001. He had a horse in a race that was a stone cold closer. He asked me if he thought his horse would be lone speed. I thought he misspoke and asked him to clarify. He had absolutely no idea what the other horses in the race were going to do or how they were likely to run. I was seriously dumbfounded.

I think a lot of connections know "their" horse but that doesn't make them an expert on others in the race. That being said, late money should only be slightly more correct than early money (our money). In many cases, if it is inside connection betting, their late money should be garbage.

However, I've seen (mainly in the last 5-10 years) that this late money is so accurate that it defies common sense. This is the reason that all of us on here are tempted to assign it to past posting. How else could that late money be so right? Unless you add in something more nefarious like performance enhancing drugs. In that case, the others in the race are of lesser importance since you know "your horse" is going to jump up off the page.

I hate being cynical but it isn't my fault, or anyone on this board's fault. It is the industry that does NOTHING about these anomalies and allows us, customers to wildly speculate.

Did anyone see the detailed investigation regarding the Sunland Derby winner? All the late action, wide trip, change in style and blow out win? Oh, that's right, nothing was done and it never even hit the radar of those who should be interested in the integrity of the game.

Finally, I've said it once, or a million times...the track gets their cut. Period. Where the money goes from there is of almost no concern to them. They do not want to jeopardize the size of the pool, so when, or how, the money shows up, as long as it's in the pool and they draw their takeout, they have no incentive to look under the rug. Now, if the odds were fixed and the track was on the hook, I absolutely 100% guarantee you that these shenanigans would not be occurring. They would have LONG AGO stopped betting 1 minute to actual post and made sure detailed audits were done regarding time stamping or whatever is needed to make sure the betting is clean.

[Track Phantom]

Like TVG's Peter Lurie says..."You gotta take what they give you". :rolleyes:
Yea...said by someone who carries around rolls of copper in their pocket.

[Track Phantom]

...and by the way, do you really think this industry is going to fix this problem? This is the same industry that adopted a 10-12 minute post drag to enhance the amount of betting into their pools. They did this at the vehement disgust of nearly every serious (or even casual player). Those kinds of "business" decisions do not strike me as player friendly or even player concerned.

[Denny]

Track Phantom,

Lots of good stuff there.

How about if someone shut off the casino dole? Maybe racetrack execs would do something about the product?

[PaceAdvantage]

Track Phantom,

Lots of good stuff there.Not really. Not in my opinion.

Anyone who attributes the "late money" being the "best money" due to past posting is living in a dreamworld.

YES, there are people out there MUCH BETTER at this game than you or I or 99.9% of the people out there.

That's why they're pushing MILLIONS through the windows every month while Joe Schmo is lucky to push a thousand a month through the windows.

They aren't risking MILLIONS a month because they suck at this game. Or because they are getting a free ride and past posting.

They're risking MILLIONS because their models are THAT GOOD, AND they're basically getting FIXED ODDS because they bet at the very end and know how much their money (and to some extent, other big-time team money) will push the odds.

It's really that simple.

Look, horseracing isn't exactly splitting the atom...it's not that difficult a game to beat with the right brilliant minds behind it...it really isn't.

To think, in this day and age, a team of PHDs can't beat horse racing with the computer power available in 2018, is insane. And that means they are WAY BETTER than 99%+ of the people out there playing. And that's WITHOUT their FIXED ODDS advantage or their rebates.

[Track Phantom]

Not really. Not in my opinion.

Anyone who attributes the "late money" being the "best money" due to past posting is living in a dreamworld.

YES, there are people out there MUCH BETTER at this game than you or I or 99.9% of the people out there.

That's why they're pushing MILLIONS through the windows every month while Joe Schmo is lucky to push a thousand a month through the windows.

They aren't risking MILLIONS a month because they suck at this game. Or because they are getting a free ride and past posting.

They're risking MILLIONS because their models are THAT GOOD, AND they're basically getting FIXED ODDS because they bet at the very end and know how much their money (and to some extent, other big-time team money) will push the odds.

It's really that simple.

Look, horseracing isn't exactly splitting the atom...it's not that difficult a game to beat with the right brilliant minds behind it...it really isn't.

To think, in this day and age, a team of PHDs can't beat horse racing with the computer power available in 2018, is insane. And that means they are WAY BETTER than 99%+ of the people out there playing. And that's WITHOUT their FIXED ODDS advantage or their rebates.
...and you obviously have proof to make these highly definitive statements? Please point me to the link or report you gleaned this information from. I'm curious now.

[PaceAdvantage]

...and you obviously have proof to make these highly definitive statements? Please point me to the link or report you gleaned this information from. I'm curious now.The past posting angle is utter insanity. They would have been busted a long time ago. Even the fools and crooks who run racing wouldn't be able to keep that quiet for all this time.

How about YOU show me this PROOF of rampant past posting amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars A DAY, which is what it would be if your claims were true.

[Track Phantom]

The past posting angle is utter insanity. They would have been busted a long time ago. Even the fools and crooks who run racing wouldn't be able to keep that quiet for all this time.

How about YOU show me this PROOF of rampant past posting amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars A DAY, which is what it would be if your claims were true.
Point me to the post I made claiming this is happening.

[PaceAdvantage]

Point me to the post I made claiming this is happening."However, I've seen (mainly in the last 5-10 years) that this late money is so accurate that it defies common sense. This is the reason that all of us on here are tempted to assign it to past posting. How else could that late money be so right? "

You brushed up against it pretty good right there, at the very least.

Why is it so hard to believe that smart people with really awesome tools and a fat-ass bankroll couldn't destroy this game at the windows...raking in a profit...plus a rebate?

I made a profit posting over 500 races at tracks all over the country, and I suck. You don't think someone 100x smarter than me with software 1,000,000 times better than I use, couldn't turn out way better results?

[Track Phantom]

"However, I've seen (mainly in the last 5-10 years) that this late money is so accurate that it defies common sense. This is the reason that all of us on here are tempted to assign it to past posting. How else could that late money be so right? "

You brushed up against it pretty good right there, at the very least.

Why is it so hard to believe that smart people with really awesome tools and a fat-ass bankroll couldn't destroy this game at the windows...raking in a profit...plus a rebate?

I made a profit posting over 500 races at tracks all over the country, and I suck. You don't think someone 100x smarter than me with software 1,000,000 times better than I use, couldn't turn out way better results?
The devil is in the detail. My intent of that comment was "all of us are tempted" to assign it to past posting. Personally, I am skeptical this is the issue but the results call for wild speculation.

I have no idea what is going, and my point is, neither do you. You made very specific statements that if true are only so by accident. I am not doubting it's possible nor do I doubt that hacking into the tote system is possible. Of the two, only the hacking portion has been proven to be possible. Those using horse racing as a personal ATM is nothing more than a self-serving comment made by people that have enveloped themselves so deeply into the game that the idea that it can't be beat by "someone" would cast idiocy onto those continuing to invest time and energy into a losing proposition.

In short, I need proof to believe anyone, and I mean ANYONE, is beating this game legitimately on a daily, weekly or yearly basis. I think all of us can win for periods of time but don't believe anyone has the holy grail algorithm.

[JustRalph]

"However, I've seen (mainly in the last 5-10 years) that this late money is so accurate that it defies common sense. This is the reason that all of us on here are tempted to assign it to past posting. How else could that late money be so right? "

You brushed up against it pretty good right there, at the very least.

Why is it so hard to believe that smart people with really awesome tools and a fat-ass bankroll couldn't destroy this game at the windows...raking in a profit...plus a rebate?

I made a profit posting over 500 races at tracks all over the country, and I suck. You don't think someone 100x smarter than me with software 1,000,000 times better than I use, couldn't turn out way better results?

I might even guess that they are tip toeing around so as not to wreck the pools too much. Therefore spawning more public attention, like this thread.

[PaceAdvantage]

In short, I need proof to believe anyone, and I mean ANYONE, is beating this game legitimately on a daily, weekly or yearly basis. I think all of us can win for periods of time but don't believe anyone has the holy grail algorithm.It's been described broadly how these guys operate.

Have you attempted anything close? Using methods similar to what has been described they do?

Then how can you possibly come to any sort of conclusion like the above?

I believe 100% they have a version of the holy grail that is working tremendously well for them, given their FIXED ODDS version of pari-mutuel wagering that they are enjoying at the moment.

[AltonKelsey]

I'm glad PaceAdvantage has come down so hard on the past posting paranoia. One down.


But I have a problem with the notion that the whales are somehow blessed with the gift of FIXED ODDS.

Is there only one whale(group)?

If there is some 'overlay' at the 0 mark , wouldn't all or most of the groups detect it? Wouldn't they all pile in and crush the price beyond value . I think so.

The only thing anyone knows is how much THEY are betting, and the average amount that's bet late into the pool. So they can guess what the final price MIGHT BE. No guarantees.

If there's some way for anyone to be the absolute last bet in, with no chance of further betting, then that would be an edge, and a problem for the public.

Anyone think that's the case?

Instead of theorizing, take a sample of 100 or 1000 races, whatever you have time for. Make note of all the late money and the results.

See what the roi is for the bet down horses everyone things are golden , and adjust upward for a nice rebate.

See how much they are making, or maybe not making.

This is all out in the open, the late action can't be hidden so you can do the aforementioned analysis unencumbered.

[thaskalos]

Not really. Not in my opinion.

Anyone who attributes the "late money" being the "best money" due to past posting is living in a dreamworld.


Is there a chance that you might be wrong about this? Or do you possess some behind-the-curtain information that the rest of us "dreamworld" occupants are not privy to?

[Track Phantom]

Is there a chance that you might be wrong about this? Or do you possess some behind-the-curtain information that the rest of us "dreamworld" occupants are not privy to?
Unfortunately, debating someone's opinion is a fruitless exercise.

I'm open-minded enough to admit that I could be wrong and there may be MIT teams picking money from our parimutuel pockets. Maybe they have built computer algorithms that exploit inefficiencies in the betting. But due to the relatively small pools (except on big days) and the unknown money that will follow their bet, and consequently turn a viable overlay into a massive underlay, I find it highly unlikely these wizards would be wasting their time in such a rudimentary endeavor.

Again, I could be wrong, but I choose to remain skeptical to these grandiose claims.

[thaskalos]

Unfortunately, debating someone's opinion is a fruitless exercise.

I'm open-minded enough to admit that I could be wrong and there may be MIT teams picking money from our parimutuel pockets. Maybe they have built computer algorithms that exploit inefficiencies in the betting. But due to the relatively small pools (except on big days) and the unknown money that will follow their bet, and consequently turn a viable overlay into a massive underlay, I find it highly unlikely these wizards would be wasting their time in such a rudimentary endeavor.

Again, I could be wrong, but I choose to remain skeptical to these grandiose claims.

I could be wrong too...and have been many times before. But my opinion remains that past-posting is still taking place...even if this belief relegates me to the "dreamworld", according to some experts here.

[Track Phantom]

I could be wrong too...and have been many times before. But my opinion remains that past-posting is still taking place...even if this belief relegates me to the "dreamworld", according to some experts here.
And there is the problem....those in charge of this area of oversight should be absolutely appalled that you would have that opinion. It matters not if it is happening, at least in this context, but that someone with your experience and years of involvement could have that conclusion. It means they haven't done enough to give you, and many others, the piece of mind that this is not happening. Non-action is more telling to me than anything else.

I'd bet that when the fix-6 scandal occurred those that were immediately suspicious were deemed the "tin-foil hat" crowd. Probably told that proper security measures are in place to prevent anything untoward happening and that "you people" that are skeptical should just stop betting if you don't believe it is a clean game.

[thaskalos]

And there is the problem....those in charge of this area of oversight should be absolutely appalled that you would have that opinion. It matters not if it is happening, at least in this context, but that someone with your experience and years of involvement could have that conclusion. It means they haven't done enough to give you, and many others, the piece of mind that this is not happening. Non-action is more telling to me than anything else.

I'd bet that when the fix-6 scandal occurred those that were immediately suspicious were deemed the "tin-foil hat" crowd. Probably told that proper security measures are in place to prevent anything untoward happening and that "you people" that are skeptical should just stop betting if you don't believe it is a clean game.

And, the fix-6 scandal was perpetrated by some guys who were stupid enough to construct their ticket in the only way that would ensure the discovery of their actions. Can you imagine what a bunch of really SMART guys can do...or how long this sort of activity might have been going on, by guys who could cover their tracks?

[Track Phantom]

And, the fix-6 scandal was perpetrated by some guys who were stupid enough to construct their ticket in the only way that would ensure the discovery of their actions. Can you imagine what a bunch of really SMART guys can do...or how long this sort of activity might have been going on, by guys who could cover their tracks?
Good point. I don't recall, did racing itself uncover this or were they prompted by an uproar from the masses?

[thaskalos]

Good point. I don't recall, did racing itself uncover this or were they prompted by an uproar from the masses?

When the amount wagered on the winning sequence was revealed, it caused the authorities to analyze the winning ticket...and it was subsequently discovered that there were "single" selections submitted for the first 4 races, including a couple of improbable longshots...whereas the last two races of the pick-6 had been wagered "all-all". It didn't exactly require a Sherlock Holmes to figure out that something of a nefarious nature had taken place. If these guys had been smart enough to spend $1,000 instead of $100 on their winning ticket...then they would have been free to carry on this charade to this very day...and beyond.

[JustRalph]

I could be wrong too...and have been many times before. But my opinion remains that past-posting is still taking place...even if this belief relegates me to the "dreamworld", according to some experts here.

I’m with you. It’s just too damn accurate.....

[PaceAdvantage]

or how long this sort of activity might have been going on, by guys who could cover their tracks?THAT'S THE POINT!

THEY CAN'T COVER THEIR TRACKS.

YOU THINK IT'S HAPPENING! HOW GOOD ARE THEY COVERING THEIR TRACKS WHEN YOU AND A WHOLE BUNCH OF OTHER PEOPLE THINK IT'S HAPPENING, and THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT IT EVERY SINGLE DAY, FOR ALL TO SEE!!!! :lol:

Which is precisely why it CAN'T BE HAPPENING, not on the scale it would take for it to be the actions of one of these CRWs.

Do you all get it now? Finally?

You guys think it's actually happening, AND it's all out in the open for all to see!!!

So it's bank robbery, in broad daylight, and nobody is getting caught.

How likely is that? More likely than someone who actually can win at the races AND is able to bet VAST sums of money during the last 20-30 seconds before the race goes off, locking in a pretty good estimate of the final odds based on huge databases full of historical numbers and analysis of US pari-mutuel pools.

No, it's not that. It's these guys being able to watch the first 10-15 sec of the race (or more), THEN get their money down...and all these tracks it happens at just turn a blind eye to it...or they're all getting paid off...even state regulators and gambling commissions...they're all on the take to keep quiet about this daylight robbery in action at almost every track, every race.

[PaceAdvantage]

For Track Phantom, who doesn't believe people can win at this game long term.

What are your thoughts on the teams and star individuals who went and conquered Hong Kong racing?

And if you think they are bonafide, how are the CRW teams purportedly here in the US much different? Because you seem to believe they would be incapable of being long term winners without some sort of illegality going on somewhere down the line.

Were the guys in Hong Kong not on the up and up?

Hong Kong was/is supposedly a bastion of CLEAN racing. Surely they wouldn't have stood for these computer teams stealing money from their racing public.

So they must have been legit, correct?

And if they are/were legit, this goes against your notion that it's virtually impossible to beat this game long term legitimately.

Unless of course it's somehow legit to do it in Hong Kong, but not legit to do it here, for some reason.

[thaskalos]

THAT'S THE POINT!

THEY CAN'T COVER THEIR TRACKS.

YOU THINK IT'S HAPPENING! HOW GOOD ARE THEY COVERING THEIR TRACKS WHEN YOU AND A WHOLE BUNCH OF OTHER PEOPLE THINK IT'S HAPPENING, and THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT IT EVERY SINGLE DAY, FOR ALL TO SEE!!!! :lol:

Which is precisely why it CAN'T BE HAPPENING, not on the scale it would take for it to be the actions of one of these CRWs.

Do you all get it now? Finally?

You guys think it's actually happening, AND it's all out in the open for all to see!!!

So it's bank robbery, in broad daylight, and nobody is getting caught.

How likely is that? More likely than someone who actually can win at the races AND is able to bet VAST sums of money during the last 20-30 seconds before the race goes off, locking in a pretty good estimate of the final odds based on huge databases full of historical numbers and analysis of US pari-mutuel pools.

No, it's not that. It's these guys being able to watch the first 10-15 sec of the race (or more), THEN get their money down...and all these tracks it happens at just turn a blind eye to it...or they're all getting paid off...even state regulators and gambling commissions...they're all on the take to keep quiet about this daylight robbery in action at almost every track, every race.
I find your argument totally unpersuasive...and my skepticism on this issue remains. I hope this is OK with you.

[PaceAdvantage]

I find your argument totally unpersuasive...and my skepticism on this issue remains. I hope this is OK with you.Why wouldn't I be OK with it? It's a free country.

I think it's a very persuasive argument. It's one thing when something hidden is revealed (like the Pick 6 scandal). It's another thing when potential evidence is there every single day for all to see.

[dasch]

I really haven't watched much Hong Kong racing but I definitely admire the effort they take to insure the integrity of their racing product.

Are there drastic odds changes during the races there?

[PaceAdvantage]

I really haven't watched much Hong Kong racing but I definitely admire the effort they take to insure the integrity of their racing product.

Are there drastic odds changes during the races there?Probably not...not only are they bastions of clean racing, they are also the bastion of technology.

I'm sure their tote boards update more than once every 20-60 seconds.

[AltonKelsey]

Probably not...not only are they bastions of clean racing, they are also the bastion of technology.

I'm sure their tote boards update more than once every 20-60 seconds.


Shame no one has responded to my previous challenge to keep track of how many betdowns win and what the roi is. Well, maybe ya'll are working on the code to automate it ;)

Oh, and guess what. The late money that I've seen come in at the BELL on hong kong races make our whales look like $2 show pikers. YUGE! pools. MASSIVE crushed odds. Bettors with their hair on fire running from the building. And lots of these LOSE.

Just thought you'd like to know.

[cj]

Why wouldn't I be OK with it? It's a free country.

I think it's a very persuasive argument. It's one thing when something hidden is revealed (like the Pick 6 scandal). It's another thing when potential evidence is there every single day for all to see.

I just don't know. I don't think there is past posting going on regularly, but I wouldn't be surprised if it turns that there is. We don't know what is in these logs that are being monitored by the TRPB and who has control over producing them or how accurate they are. I have no faith in the tech being used in racing and I'd be shocked if there aren't ways to beat it. I know a thing or two about high level tech security from my time in the Air Force and working for NATO.

According to Maloney's book, tracks don't even know when the races go off exactly. If it has changed the information still hasn't found its way to the charts. We just get it to the nearest minute.

Look at the TRPB website:

http://www.trpb.com/

It is run by the tracks, so nothing more than self-policing. There is a tab for the "TOTE SECURITY SYSTEM"...when you go there it is "under construction". There is very little information on the entire site and there isn't a single entry about anything being investigated...past or present. Not one iota. No transparency, no trust. Why should we?

Remember this thread?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=107314

We NEVER got the story. Again, why should we trust they are looking out for us. The track told them couldn't give the info out so they couldn't...again, self-policing.

[cj]

Shame no one has responded to my previous challenge to keep track of how many betdowns win and what the roi is. Well, maybe ya'll are working on the code to automate it ;)



Why don't you do it?

[dasch]

Remember this thread?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=107314

We NEVER got the story. Again, why should we trust they are looking out for us. The track told them couldn't give the info out so they couldn't...again, self-policing.

I don't have many posts because I rarely have much time, but I was involved in that one in 2013 and here we are all these years later....

[Track Phantom]

For Track Phantom, who doesn't believe people can win at this game long term.

What are your thoughts on the teams and star individuals who went and conquered Hong Kong racing?

And if you think they are bonafide, how are the CRW teams purportedly here in the US much different? Because you seem to believe they would be incapable of being long term winners without some sort of illegality going on somewhere down the line.

Were the guys in Hong Kong not on the up and up?

Hong Kong was/is supposedly a bastion of CLEAN racing. Surely they wouldn't have stood for these computer teams stealing money from their racing public.

So they must have been legit, correct?

And if they are/were legit, this goes against your notion that it's virtually impossible to beat this game long term legitimately.

Unless of course it's somehow legit to do it in Hong Kong, but not legit to do it here, for some reason.
No idea. Know nothing about it. Again, all caps or not, where is the proof? Have you ever peered over the shoulder of these players making their bets? Ever seen a print out of the ledger of bets? Ever talk to one of these guys? Ever see their computer program or what kind of algorithms are being used?

Let me clarify a few things:
* I do not believe past posting is what is causing the majority of the toteboard issues people have. But I believe it is highly possible, even borderline probable that something like this occurs. I draw this conclusion by combining the fact that Sam Houston still has box TV's from 1992 to display their races and it is 2018 and technological security has been breached from organizations that spend BILLIONS (with a B) on it. To think that there is NO WAY it is happening is downright imbecilic. Having said that, I think the odds fluctuation are not likely due to past posting or cancellations of bets. The changing of odds happens too quickly for the alterations to have taken effect.

* I do think there are players that have a major edge over others but do not believe there is an algorithm that does the work for you. That is something, after spending 32 years reading and studying this game like a crazy man, that I find improbable. However, I'm all ears and eyes to some proof to back up the "don't ya think" or "how hard is it to believe" arguments being pushed forward.

* I think cheating in horse racing is rampant in a variety of areas and most notably in the methods used to get performance from horses

* I think the integrity oversight is criminal but understandable. The money isn't there to self-police and negatively impact handle.

Having said all of that, I still love the game. It's like a girlfriend that was once beautiful but has now eaten herself into a pear-shaped shell of the girl I met. I still see her as she once was. I still love the game for what it once was and while I may not put the screws to her as often as I once did, and maybe our relationship is a little more intellectual and less passionate, I wouldn't trade it for anything else.

[Track Phantom]

Do you all get it now? Finally?

You guys think it's actually happening, AND it's all out in the open for all to see!!!

So it's bank robbery, in broad daylight, and nobody is getting caught....
Two words for you....Jorge Navarro

[jay68802]

Earlier today I posted a idea about taking a computer to the track and trying to past post through you ADW. I have tried this a Churchiil, I have tried it at Keeneland, it does not work. I have tried to past post while at the track, once we were able to get a bet in after the gates opened. It just does not happen. Could there be a way to hack into the tote system and do it? Maybe, but then the problem becomes, you can't bet too much, or you be found out. And if you keep doing it to often, you will be found out.

As for PA's thinking that the teams are creating a pool with fixed odd's. In a way they are. They will not know the odds exactly, but it will be close. When you control the money, in this game, you can control the odds. The game we are playing is not a para-mutual game any more. We are wagering against two groups that have a edge, because not only do they control the odds, they control the participants in each race.

The other advantage they have is pool manipulation. This happened at Gulfstream in the 10th race on March 9th. When they loaded the gate the 6 had 54.69% of a $132,973 pool. The last dump was completely different. 54.01% of the money was put on the 2 and the 3. Can you say Dutch. The 2 won. $22,957 of the $39,638 of the last pool focused on two horses. While the 6 received only $6,186. The money does not lie here, the public was swindled. The 6 looked every bit the part of a 4/5. Not a 6-1. Yes, they are good handicappers, but a computer, even in this day and age, still can not take all, the known variables, even if they have the most accurate information in the world, and be this accurate. This game still has way more unknown factors, that can not be accounted for.

Some of those unknown's can be eliminated in one way. Inside information. Read the minutes of the CHRB meeting I posted. The CHRB knows exactly who they are, recruits and caters to them. And some will say that not even the trainer knows when a horse is going to run well. I buy that in part, but these trainers can not be so out of touch that they can say that about every horse. And a lot of the time, it might not matter if the horse runs it's race, it still might not win anyway. But it would be very nice to know that the horse will not run it's race. And would you like to know that during that last 90 day break the horse was put on a steroid program? Horse racing has banned steroids, crap, they are just considered "therapeutic medications" now, not PED's.

In the small sample I have, the CRW teams have made a small profit, but add the rebates in and that is why they do this. Tracks will pay for the teams food, and lodging on top of this. So the next time you look at your .97% ROI, be proud, you are beating this game. But also remember that you are not a "elite" customer, and the reason reason that your ROI is below 1.00 is because of the tax you have to pay so the track can keep the "elite" customers. So what is the price of integrity? It is free, but the tracks pay their elite customers not to have any.

Rant over.

[PaceAdvantage]

No idea. Know nothing about it. Again, all caps or not, where is the proof? Have you ever peered over the shoulder of these players making their bets? Ever seen a print out of the ledger of bets? Ever talk to one of these guys? Ever see their computer program or what kind of algorithms are being used?

Let me clarify a few things:
* I do not believe past posting is what is causing the majority of the toteboard issues people have. But I believe it is highly possible, even borderline probable that something like this occurs. I draw this conclusion by combining the fact that Sam Houston still has box TV's from 1992 to display their races and it is 2018 and technological security has been breached from organizations that spend BILLIONS (with a B) on it. To think that there is NO WAY it is happening is downright imbecilic. Having said that, I think the odds fluctuation are not likely due to past posting or cancellations of bets. The changing of odds happens too quickly for the alterations to have taken effect.

* I do think there are players that have a major edge over others but do not believe there is an algorithm that does the work for you. That is something, after spending 32 years reading and studying this game like a crazy man, that I find improbable. However, I'm all ears and eyes to some proof to back up the "don't ya think" or "how hard is it to believe" arguments being pushed forward.

* I think cheating in horse racing is rampant in a variety of areas and most notably in the methods used to get performance from horses

* I think the integrity oversight is criminal but understandable. The money isn't there to self-police and negatively impact handle.

Having said all of that, I still love the game. It's like a girlfriend that was once beautiful but has now eaten herself into a pear-shaped shell of the girl I met. I still see her as she once was. I still love the game for what it once was and while I may not put the screws to her as often as I once did, and maybe our relationship is a little more intellectual and less passionate, I wouldn't trade it for anything else.I suggest you read about the Hong Kong teams. There's a decent amount of talk about them both on here and elsewhere on the web. I'm surprised you know nothing about this.

You've never heard of Bill Benter?

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, they are good handicappers, but a computer, even in this day and age, still can not take all, the known variables, even if they have the most accurate information in the world, and be this accurate. This game still has way more unknown factors, that can not be accounted for.Come on man. I posted this yesterday in the VIP forum:

6:11 PM Will Rogers Race 10 :6: 7/2
6:11 PM Will Rogers Race 10 :7: 4/1
6:11 PM Will Rogers Race 10 :2: 4/1This was pretty cool.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/VRH/BAM.png

I posted a cold $1,800 Trifecta.

And I suck.

Imagine what an actual competent handicapper with a high IQ can accomplish.

This game is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO beatable, it's not even funny.

I can't do it...yet...but I'm getting closer...but I've taken quite a number of steps backwards lately.

Imagine what a team of really, really intelligent people with a lot of money can accomplish.

[thaskalos]

Why wouldn't I be OK with it? It's a free country.

I think it's a very persuasive argument. It's one thing when something hidden is revealed (like the Pick 6 scandal). It's another thing when potential evidence is there every single day for all to see.

"Potential evidence" was also there to see when trainer Juan Carlos Guerrero burst upon the horse racing scene, and quickly elevated himself from total obscurity to being the most proficient trainer in the entire country. Do you remember HIM? He had at least 40% winners in every single training category imaginable, and was winning at a 43% clip with his newly-claimed horses...while the horses who were claimed AWAY from him were winning only at a 3% clip in their next start for their new connections. Does "potential evidence" get any more clear-cut than that? And...what did the racing industry do with this obvious "evidence"? NOTHING! Senior Guerrero was allowed to ply his trade unmolested...and when he was finally suspended, it was because he groped a female employee of the Parx secretary's office.

Who cares if there is "potential evidence there every day for all to see"...when the game's officials are looking the OTHER way?

[AltonKelsey]

Why don't you do it?

Been doing it for decades, a better question would be why don't I stop.

Seriously, you'd think the folks making unsubstantiated claims would be anxious for proof.

[thaskalos]

Been doing it for decades, a better question would be why don't I stop.

Don't keep us in suspense...what have you found?

[cj]

Been doing it for decades, a better question would be why don't I stop.

Seriously, you'd think the folks making unsubstantiated claims would be anxious for proof.


We're all ears.

[AltonKelsey]

Don't keep us in suspense...what have you found?


I've found that when people blame outside forces for why they lose, they are doomed.

Even if they are RIGHT about it.

[PaceAdvantage]

I've found that when people blame outside forces for why they lose, they are doomed.

Even if they are RIGHT about it.Except there aren't too many people here, that I've read, that are blaming this for losing.

I know I'm not. Never have.

I know I could still win despite this. Could being the operative word, and not can. :lol:

[thaskalos]

I've found that when people blame outside forces for why they lose, they are doomed.

Even if they are RIGHT about it.

You said earlier that you had spent DECADES in research...so, I was expecting a more profound discovery. My bad...

[jay68802]

Come on man. I posted this yesterday in the VIP forum:

This was pretty cool.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/VRH/BAM.png

I posted a cold $1,800 Trifecta.

And I suck.

Imagine what an actual competent handicapper with a high IQ can accomplish.

This game is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO beatable, it's not even funny.

I can't do it...yet...but I'm getting closer...but I've taken quite a number of steps backwards lately.

Imagine what a team of really, really intelligent people with a lot of money can accomplish.

I think I gave you a :jump::ThmbUp: for that one, always like seeing people hit like that. You are right, the game is beatable, and the programs they use make my hard drive filled with excel programs look like wood blocks.

The way I understand what the teams are doing is this. This is just a general description, because I do not want to get into 120 predictive values, impact values, and blah, blah, blah. Their program gives them a odds line, and the odds line is then compared to the odds in the pool. The bets they make are proportioned to bring the odds in the pool closer to what their program tells them it should be. They do this because they know that the closer the odds in the pool are to their odds line, the more likely it is that they profit. So when several teams are playing a track, the final odds we get are what the programs they use are telling them. So when you have a situation like the one that set you off and started this thread, suddenly the horse that is a lone overlay, gets hammered. The effect is that with the amount of money they are playing, a few groups are setting the odds for the majority. Then the tracks turn around and are recruiting these teams. Using the money they take from the average player, are giving these teams rebates and other incentives. And the GP race I brought up, reeks of pool manipulation, inside information, and groups of people that just do not give a **** about the customer. It sucked.

And you don't suck, neither do I.

:4: Pays: $117.20

[Tom]

You said earlier that you had spent DECADES in research...so, I was expecting a more profound discovery. My bad...

I think he found that on a note in Al Capone's vault!
Jeraldo gave it to him. :lol:

[FakeNameChanged]

If the favorites winning average has been 33% to 37% for the last several decades, wouldn't it be logical that rampant past posting would have increased that number by 10-15 points? Somewhere in the 45-50% range? Or higher. I'm not implying it never happens.

[castaway01]

If the favorites winning average has been 33% to 37% for the last several decades, wouldn't it be logical that rampant past posting would have increased that number by 10-15 points? Somewhere in the 45-50% range? Or higher. I'm not implying it never happens.

Favorites' winning percentage HAS gone up significantly though, from 33% 20 years ago to 38% now. That's a pretty significant increase. But why are you assuming that past posting is only to bet on favorites? If it exists, it's likely not anything so obvious. It's probably more the ability to cancel a bet up to 15 seconds into a race where if your horse breaks slow you can get out. I don't think anyone who has the ability to bet after the bell is sitting there waiting to bury a 9-5 shot to 3-5. There are a million smarter ways to go about it.

[FakeNameChanged]

Favorites' winning percentage HAS gone up significantly though, from 33% 20 years ago to 38% now. That's a pretty significant increase. But why are you assuming that past posting is only to bet on favorites? If it exists, it's likely not anything so obvious. It's probably more the ability to cancel a bet up to 15 seconds into a race where if your horse breaks slow you can get out. I don't think anyone who has the ability to bet after the bell is sitting there waiting to bury a 9-5 shot to 3-5. There are a million smarter ways to go about it.

I attribute the rise in winning favs to shrinking field sizes. Never said past posting was only favorites or that it existed at all.

[Saratoga_Mike]

The accuracy of the late money is too accurate. There is no way this money is being wagered with out information that is not public. We are playing against the people who own and train these animals. They might not be exactly who is wagering the money, but the horsemen are receiving some of it. Follow the wagering pattern of the horses trained by Pletcher, Fawlks, Rodriguez, Baffert. Did you see how Justify was bet yesterday. He was going up against one of the top 5 3 year olds out there, but opened at 1-5, and the money kept coming. You can not tell me, know matter how good the horse looked on paper, that the wagering should have been that lopsided.



Worst bettors at the track - see Steve Crist's examination of backside betting data from Saratoga in "Betting on Myself." I'd love to bet all day against just trainers and owners, and not the CJs (i.e., ultra-sharp players) of the world.

[jay68802]

Worst bettors at the track - see Steve Crist's examination of backside betting data from Saratoga in "Betting on Myself." I'd love to bet all day against just trainers and owners, and not the CJs (i.e., ultra-sharp players) of the world.

Some are, and some are not. I know two trainers, one of them could not read a form to save his life, the other one is a very sharp handicapper. And it really does not matter much that a trainer would say the horse is ready. It would be nice to know, and to know why the trainer thinks this. The part that matters is when a trainer can say the horse has no chance. Eliminate 1 contender, and you can focus your money where it should be. Not where it looks like it shiould be.

[GMB@BP]

I have way to many stories of horses who were supposed to be the "next" and they turned out as nothing, and stories of "average" who turned into hall of famers.

I just never trust the barns anymore, they are wrong as much as right.

They do make you laugh though.

[ZippyChippy423]

Do I believe it has ever happened? Oh yes and it still may go on but overall I think its mostly coincidence. You have bettors playing tracks from all over the world. You would have to have several bettors pulling money back or adding money in simultaneously AFTER the race has started. What I have seen happen is guys will drop 2k to win on a horse but put another 1-2k on who they think will win and then cancel the 2k bet right before the race goes off. This could be what you are confusing with past post betting. It takes time for the tote to catch up and usually does during the race. Make no mistake though some tracks will not allow wagers to be cancelled once you leave the window HOWEVER i know several OTB's that will. If there is a pattern the OTB can be fined and stripped of taking on wagers. Locking up the tote a few minutes before a race starts in not a solution. I saw this happen years ago when those guys who worked for Autotote got busted for editing tickets and won a huge pick 6 . For some dumb reason all the tracks started cutting betting off several minutes before races. The scam had nothing to do with past post betting but simply editing tickets they already bet to hit pick 4's etc. They got greedy and so it goes....busted. I think there is a lot more to worry about in racing then past post betting. How about the FACT that race manipulation has happened and probably still does especially with trotters.

[Denny]

The percentage of winning favorites is approaching harness track levels.

Way it's going it'll be 40% before too long.

[PaceAdvantage]

GP race 5 just now...I had the :7: as my top pick @ 9/5 on my line

Went in the gate @ 6/5

Won the race @ 9/5

I didn't bet the race because I get screwed by the fact it was below my line until the race went off.

The horse that was part of the early pace that was 7/2 going into the gate, also drifted up to 4/1 in the final flash, so they didn't bet the early speed either, and this was a 5f turf sprint.

Guess the past posters weren't watching this race.

And Gulfstream has a TON of CRW money going into the pools every day...and I mean a ton.

[Tom]

Earlier today, I head on HRRN that the last 9 of 13 at Aqueduct were under 8-5.

[PaceAdvantage]

AQU finale....I had the winner @ 9/5 on my line
4/1 on the M/L
Bet him at 4/1 going into the gate
He broke from the gate @ 3/1
And won the race @ 5/2

And he was the 3rd choice in the double...:bang::bang::bang:

Thought I'd post one where I got smacked with another odds crop in the last few seconds of action.

[Track Phantom]

GP race 5 just now...I had the :7: as my top pick @ 9/5 on my line

Went in the gate @ 6/5

Won the race @ 9/5

I didn't bet the race because I get screwed by the fact it was below my line until the race went off.

The horse that was part of the early pace that was 7/2 going into the gate, also drifted up to 4/1 in the final flash, so they didn't bet the early speed either, and this was a 5f turf sprint.

Guess the past posters weren't watching this race.

And Gulfstream has a TON of CRW money going into the pools every day...and I mean a ton.
No, because they were focused on HAW race 4 where the #1 was 10-1 morning line (beaten double digits in all four races), on the board at 3-1 during the running of the race (actually rewound it on my TV via TVG to verify). Wins by 10 lengths and final odds of 9-5.

Man those computer guys are good.

[Poindexter]

AQU finale....I had the winner @ 9/5 on my line
4/1 on the M/L
Bet him at 4/1 going into the gate
He broke from the gate @ 3/1
And won the race @ 5/2

And he was the 3rd choice in the double...:bang::bang::bang:

Thought I'd post one where I got smacked with another odds crop in the last few seconds of action.

Actually the horse was 2.90-1 2nd choice in double, paid 2.85-1 final odds. Seems about right.

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually the horse was 2.90-1 2nd choice in double, paid 2.85-1 final odds. Seems about right.Here's the double willpays I saw:

4-6=48.20
4-9=53.00
4-8=58.00

Third choice.

But it doesn't really matter. The winner was the favorite in the P3 & P4.

[Track Phantom]

EVD Race 4:

Last horse loading in the gate (odds/ML odds/DD will-pays)
1: 7-1 (7-2) $52.80
2: 5-1 (12-1) $65.80
3: 22-1 (8-1) $149.80
4: 30-1 (12-1) $200.20
5: 4-1 (6-1) $53.40
6: SCR (20-1) N/A
7: 35-1 (5-1) $202.20
8: 30-1 (6-1) $183.20
9: 9-1 (8-1) $79.80
10: 4-5 (4-1) $24.20

Final odds:
1: 6-1 (7-2) $52.80
2: 7-2 (12-1) $65.80
3: 22-1 (8-1) $149.80
4: 30-1 (12-1) $200.20
5: 7-2 (6-1) $53.40
6: SCR (20-1) N/A
7: 40-1 (5-1) $202.20
8: 50-1 (6-1) $183.20
9: 5-1 (8-1) $79.80
10: 3-2 (4-1) $24.20

Four horses were lower final odds than when the last horse loaded but two of those #1 and #5 were only slightly lower. Both #2 and #9 dropped significantly.

You guessed it: Final result --- 9/2/10/5

These computer guys are good

[Track Phantom]

CT Race 4:

Last horse loading in the gate (odds/ML odds/P3 will-pays)
1: 1-2 (8-5) $14.55
2: 53-1 (20-1) $491.30
3: 56-1 (20-1) $302.35
4: 9-2 (5-1) $34.00
5: 4-1 (5-2) $30.20
6: 13-1 (9-2) 57.30
7: 11-1 (6-1) $93.55


Final odds:
1: 3-5 (8-5) $14.55
2: 45-1 (20-1) $491.30
3: 58-1 (20-1) $302.35
4: 3-1 (5-1) $34.00
5: 9-2 (5-2) $30.20
6: 14-1 (9-2) 57.30
7: 9-1 (6-1) $93.55

One horse took serious late action (#4). Two others were slightly lower at the final odds (#2 and #7)

You guessed it: Final result --- 4/5/7/6

These computer guys are good

[jay68802]

EVD Race 4:

Last horse loading in the gate (odds/ML odds/DD will-pays)
1: 7-1 (7-2) $52.80
2: 5-1 (12-1) $65.80
3: 22-1 (8-1) $149.80
4: 30-1 (12-1) $200.20
5: 4-1 (6-1) $53.40
6: SCR (20-1) N/A
7: 35-1 (5-1) $202.20
8: 30-1 (6-1) $183.20
9: 9-1 (8-1) $79.80
10: 4-5 (4-1) $24.20

Final odds:
1: 6-1 (7-2) $52.80
2: 7-2 (12-1) $65.80
3: 22-1 (8-1) $149.80
4: 30-1 (12-1) $200.20
5: 7-2 (6-1) $53.40
6: SCR (20-1) N/A
7: 40-1 (5-1) $202.20
8: 50-1 (6-1) $183.20
9: 5-1 (8-1) $79.80
10: 3-2 (4-1) $24.20

Four horses were lower final odds than when the last horse loaded but two of those #1 and #5 were only slightly lower. Both #2 and #9 dropped significantly.

You guessed it: Final result --- 9/2/10/5


These computer guys are good

Had a conditional wager on the 9 at 7-1. I went to the store and when I got back I saw the final odds, i thought, crap, no wager on a winner. The bet did go through.

[Track Phantom]

Had a conditional wager on the 9 at 7-1. I went to the store and when I got back I saw the final odds, i thought, crap, no wager on a winner. The bet did go through.
Nice hit. Does the fact that your bet went through mean the late money came in so late that it bypassed your ADW cutoff?

[PaceAdvantage]

Had a conditional wager on the 9 at 7-1. I went to the store and when I got back I saw the final odds, i thought, crap, no wager on a winner. The bet did go through.Happens to me a lot at certain places...like Sunland...I can have a bet go through at 0mtp with a 3-1 condition, win the race, and get a 7/5 payoff...and I'm not joking.

[PaceAdvantage]

Nice hit. Does the fact that your bet went through mean the late money came in so late that it bypassed your ADW cutoff?Most tracks drag their posts, and most ADWs don't let you condition bet beyond 0mtp....so 0mtp at many tracks is really 3-5mtp in reality, plenty of time for your bet to be accepted at 0mtp, then get pounded into oblivion in the next 3-5 minutes.

One ADW (AmWager), allows you to specify a negative number for mtp, so a conditional bet at -3.5mtp won't check until 3.5 minutes have gone by PAST actual 0mtp (useful for tracks like Tampa and Gulfstream that drag...actually, with Gulfstream, you really need to use -5 or -6mtp...lol)

[jay68802]

Nice hit. Does the fact that your bet went through mean the late money came in so late that it bypassed your ADW cutoff?

It has gone both ways, but I am usually not around to watch.

[PaceAdvantage]

Anyone watching the 6th just now at CT? Did a couple of hundred dollars come off the :1: just as he started to fade late on the backstretch? Could have sworn that one had around 11,700 in the win pool and ended at 11,491...but I could be wrong about that.

[P Matties Jr]

I didn't see the pool, but he did go 4/5 to 3/5 on the last flash. However, the winner went from 21-1 to 17-1 and the winning exacta went down the most.

[P Matties Jr]

Last race at Penn:

winner went 9/5 to 8/5
2nd place went 6/1 to 4/1

Finished in a photo. Exactas both way were the big hits on the last flash.

[PaceAdvantage]

I didn't see the pool, but he did go 4/5 to 3/5 on the last flash. However, the winner went from 21-1 to 17-1 and the winning exacta went down the most.On my screen the :1: in the CT 6th went from 1-1 to 6-5 at the end....when he broke through the gate right before the start (but didn't go anywhere).

Then I thought, during the race, some money came off as it became obvious the :1: didn't have it today.

[P Matties Jr]

You're right. I was looking at the #1 in the wrong race. He definitely went 1-1 to 6-5.

[baconswitchfarm]

Nothing to see here. Move along. :liar:

[PaceAdvantage]

FINALLY....a speed horse I bet that basically has the front from start to finish but doesn't go down in odds...:lol::lol::lol:

Finale at CT.

Past posting dudes asleep at the wheel again.

And for anyone who accuses me of red boarding, I posted this in VIP way before the race went off.

[P Matties Jr]

Good pick. 7 and 8 were the late movers but the exacta still went down from $66 to $60

[JustRalph]

FINALLY....a speed horse I bet that basically has the front from start to finish but doesn't go down in odds...:lol::lol::lol:

Finale at CT.

Past posting dudes asleep at the wheel again.

And for anyone who accuses me of red boarding, I posted this in VIP way before the race went off.

Do the CRW guys ever pass a race?

[zawaaa]

If the industry doesn't start seriously investigating and putting the breaks on whomever or whatever is causing this rampant and massive pool shenanigans, we the betting public will have no choice but to throw this game into the trash bin where it belongs under these current operating conditions.


the smart people bet late

the smartest guys bet even later

it's pretty simple stuff really

[Denny]

Anybody notice the tote action on #5 Black Stetson in yesterday's Bridgetown stakes at Aqueduct.

Parx shipper never raced on turf.

15-1 ML
Opened around 16 or17
Odds drifted up till post time.
Last time I noticed he was 29-1.
Race starts and he's 19-1 and goes a little lower during race.
Wins at 18_1.

At the gate he's going to pay $60 or more if he wins.

Pays $38.

Odds cut by more than a third.

Thing is, I think it was inside money - NOT crw.

He broke fifth and had to be hustled to the lead by Alvarado. The others then sort of let him go.

(There's a good write up at DRF with an interview with the connections.)

[Inglewood Flamingo]

I was hired and relocated to live offshore and work on a whale project that involved real money, and a real think tank of analytical minds behind it.

While their main focus was HK, they were involved in US TB pools daily. Signal delay is a huge problem that did exist, at least then. We had access to the Roberts’s feed, TVG, YouBet, and a computer feed from a legit offshore rebate shop. I don’t think I need to tell you which one was the most accurate, or the one with the least delay until real post...

10 second advantage on a good race. Usually less, but enough to get your shit together before the gate opens.

Then of course there was always a call to the press box to confirm if necessary, but then you had to be concerned with audio phone data transfer delays...

[Inglewood Flamingo]

IMO...the only way to predict the closing odds with any decree of accuracy is by "handicapping" the late-betting Whales. And, since their handicapping and betting methods are WAY more sophisticated than ours...that isn't likely to ever happen. And...if things get even worse for us in the future, which is exactly what we both think will happen...then, good night Irene.

Thask, I’ve been away a long time but always respect & enjoy your posts.

What have I missed with your closing sentence in this post?...

Garett-

[thaskalos]

Thask, I’ve been away a long time but always respect & enjoy your posts.

What have I missed with your closing sentence in this post?...

Garett-

Hi Garett...and thanks for the compliment about my posts. I didn't mean anything "esoteric" with my closing sentence in that post. It's just that, as the long-time horseplayers continue to abandon this game...the Whale-money will end up occupying a larger and larger position in the mutuel pools...and these drastic late-odds changes that we see now will only get more and more noticeable as time passes. So...those of us who have a hard time dealing with the odds-changes now, can only look forward to even bigger headaches in the future.

Not a pleasant thought...IMO.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
IMO...the only way to predict the closing odds with any decree of accuracy is by "handicapping" the late-betting Whales. And, since their handicapping and betting methods are WAY more sophisticated than ours...that isn't likely to ever happen. And...if things get even worse for us in the future, which is exactly what we both think will happen...then, good night Irene.

That actually turned on a light bulb for me. Great idea.

Thanks.

[lamboguy]

what goes through my head about this mess sounds to silly to post.

we now have P. Matties, who if he's not the top horse handicapper in the world he's in the top 5, weighing in here about tote infractions, putting it politely. he is now paying closer attention to the tote before and after the race, where normally he would be spending his precious time handicapping the next group of races. i have not spoken to him, but my guess he is doing some serious head scratching trying to figure out what is going on.

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't scratch your head too hard.

It's pretty obvious what is going on. (hint - not past posting)

But, I hope you put up a video soon.

[PaceAdvantage]

Anybody watching the 2nd at Penn National tonight?

I had a conditional wager in for the #5 @ 2-1 minimum odds.

My bet didn't go through...and AmWager is the place where they continue to monitor your horse AFTER 0mtp...meaning, if this horse ever ticked up to 2-1 at any point before the race, my bet would have been made.

Seeing that the horse won and paid $6.40 no less, I have to believe this was a clear case of pool manipulation somehow.

The #11 was the clear favorite in the doubles like, FOREVER...and the final odds on that one was 7/5. But this horse was nowhere near 7/5 for most if not all of the betting, if you look at the chart on AmWager.

I wasn't actually watching this race, so if anyone has a more clear picture for how the win betting went in this race, I'd love to see it.

I'm furious again...not that I missed out on a ****ing 2/1 winner...but shit like this is chipping away and chipping away and chipping away at my ability to make a profit in this game, whether the horse is 2/1 only AFTER the race goes off, or is 9-1 when I bet but pays 9/2 in the end. It all adds up to a seriously reduced ROI.

[iamt]

http://www.buildabet2.com/ include an odds graph if you click on a race, by runner.

It isn't perfect but it just looks like the 11 was hammered late, and not any cancelling going on with the 5 as most horses drifted up.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yeah, the 5 opened at 3/2 and the 11 opened at 5/1. The 5 briefly hit 2-1 at 15mtp, but was never 2/1 again until after the race started, when it jumped from 7/5 to over 2/1 at the end.

Meanwhile, the 11 never went below 4/1 until a few minutes before post time, which is kind of insane.

Makes one think the 5 was manipulated lower to prevent people from betting on it all along. Like I said, the 11 was the clear favorite in the doubles when I started checking midway through the 1st race betting action.

There was no reason why the 5 should have been hammered early like that and kept low throughout until the very end.

Was that money coming off the #5 at the end via a cancel? Was it a TON of money on the #11 at the end and nothing came off the #5?

Would be interesting to find out.

[iamt]

They have the pool at around 20,000 (and the 5 at 2-1) at 0MTP and it closed with about 48,000 (and the 5 just creeping over).

[jay68802]

A classic example of CWT in action. I was paying attention to EVD tonight and this race really caught my eye. The last dump was the highest of the night, and the results show a thing or two. I came to the conclusion or assumption that about 70% of the money bet on the top 4 horses, in the last dump, was from CWT's. You can mess with that % up or down, and still see about the same result.

EVD Race #7:

When the horses loaded into the gate the win pool was $22,442.00, the final win pool was $45,643.00.

The top 4 choices in the last dump, odds at the gate.

:4: 4/1
:6: 5/1
:7: 17/1
:11: 9/5

70% of the amount wagered in the last dump:

:4: $4800.00
:6: $1700.00
:7: $2200.00
:11: $3700.00

Total: $12,400.00

Final Odds and Amount that would be won in the horse won.

:4: 5/2 $17,280.00 +6% rebate $744.00 = $18,024.00
:6: 6/1 $11,900.00 +6% rebate $744.00 = $12,644.00
:7: 24/1 $55,000.00 +6% rebate $744.00 = $55,744.00
:11: 2/1 $11,100.00 +6% rebate $744.00 = $11,844.00

The worst outcome was loosing $556.00, the best outcome was winning $43,344.00.

The 4 won, and was the highest bet horse in the last dump.

[PaceAdvantage]

http://www.buildabet2.com/ include an odds graph if you click on a race, by runner.Never heard of this site before...but it's a pretty cool tool to check odds movement on any particular horse (of the tracks they cover).

Is this a tool of some ADW or is it an ADW itself? It looks like you can bet on there...is it some off shore outfit?

[BreadandButter]

Never heard of this site before...but it's a pretty cool tool to check odds movement on any particular horse (of the tracks they cover).

Is this a tool of some ADW or is it an ADW itself? It looks like you can bet on there...is it some off shore outfit?

https://www.greyhoundchannel.com/

They have been around for ever. Think it was Derby Lane, PBKC and Jax on some venture - not 100% sure.

Want to say I was using them before Youbet even came into existence.

[bks]

TRACK PHANTOM WROTE:

I do think there are players that have a major edge over others but do not believe there is an algorithm that does the work for you. That is something, after spending 32 years reading and studying this game like a crazy man, that I find improbable. However, I'm all ears and eyes to some proof to back up the "don't ya think" or "how hard is it to believe" arguments being pushed forward.

There isn's AN ALGORITHM that "does the work." There are multiple ones that do, and "the work" is data processing. Algorithms are better at it than you or I are. As much as it pains me to agree with PA, he's right about what's happening here. I'm surprised that some are still underestimating the impact of automation going on in all sectors of society, and in the financial sectors (including horse racing) most obviously. Automation is set to replace nearly half of all current jobs in the next couple of decades - its remaking whole areas of social life, not just pari-mutuel wagering.

I could point to a million example of how algorithms are being deployed, but the main point is that so long as there is an asymmetry of resources related to their use, there will be asymmetrical outcomes. Automatic decision-making structures REINFORCE INEQUALITY, and in horse racing, where there are whales and the rest of us, it is only more obviously the case. I cannot get ADWs to bend to my wishes; whales can. I cannot get the rebates they can. And I cannot invest in the proprietary, extremely fine-grained decisional softwares, and neither can most of you, but they can and do.

"Big data" surveillance of the kind whales can perform on horses across multiple tracks in real time gives an advantage that can never be matched without similar resources. It is all about processing power, the isolation of meaningful variables and the modeling that can be built from it. The bigger the data sets and the processing power, the more likely one is to find and be able to exploit a hidden pattern.

What PA doesn't realize is that he will never beat them by himself over time - in the short run, yes, anyone fortified with their individual AI software can win. In the long run, as with this poker AI, it's virtually impossible without the advantage that unlimited resources give you.

https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2017/january/AI-beats-poker-pros.html

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/roots-of-unity/review-weapons-of-math-destruction/

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Passcode/Passcode-Voices/2015/0128/Frank-Pasquale-unravels-the-new-machine-age-of-algorithms-and-bots

[PaceAdvantage]

As much as it pains me to agree with PA, he's right about what's happening here.Another comedian.

[GMB@BP]

There isn's AN ALGORITHM that "does the work." There are multiple ones that do, and "the work" is data processing. Algorithms are better at it than you or I are. As much as it pains me to agree with PA, he's right about what's happening here. I'm surprised that some are still underestimating the impact of automation going on in all sectors of society, and in the financial sectors (including horse racing) most obviously. Automation is set to replace nearly half of all current jobs in the next couple of decades - its remaking whole areas of social life, not just pari-mutuel wagering.

I could point to a million example of how algorithms are being deployed, but the main point is that so long as there is an asymmetry of resources related to their use, there will be asymmetrical outcomes. Automatic decision-making structures REINFORCE INEQUALITY, and in horse racing, where there are whales and the rest of us, it is only more obviously the case. I cannot get ADWs to bend to my wishes; whales can. I cannot get the rebates they can. And I cannot invest in the proprietary, extremely fine-grained decisional softwares, and neither can most of you, but they can and do.

"Big data" surveillance of the kind whales can perform on horses across multiple tracks in real time gives an advantage that can never be matched without similar resources. It is all about processing power, the isolation of meaningful variables and the modeling that can be built from it. The bigger the data sets and the processing power, the more likely one is to find and be able to exploit a hidden pattern.

What PA doesn't realize is that he will never beat them by himself over time - in the short run, yes, anyone fortified with their individual AI software can win. In the long run, as with this poker AI, it's virtually impossible without the advantage that unlimited resources give you.

https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2017/january/AI-beats-poker-pros.html

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/roots-of-unity/review-weapons-of-math-destruction/

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Passcode/Passcode-Voices/2015/0128/Frank-Pasquale-unravels-the-new-machine-age-of-algorithms-and-bots

this is not making me feel better.

[bks]

Another comedian.

Deal with the substance.

[thaskalos]

Deal with the substance.

That's not easy for him...because he hasn't had much practice in this regard. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Deal with the substance.What's to deal with, you agree with me.

What I am dealing with is your snide little personal remark that could have easily been left unsaid.

I don't recall ever being unkind to you in the past, but I am getting older and the ol' memory ain't what it used to me.

[PaceAdvantage]

I deleted my prior comment, thask, before you replied.

[thaskalos]

I deleted my prior comment, thask, before you replied.

No problem...

[Jeff P]

I recall reading the Carnegie Mellon AI vs. Poker Pros article (https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2017/january/AI-beats-poker-pros.html) last year when it came out.
McAulay, of Scotland, said Libratus was a tougher opponent than he expected, but it was exciting to play against it.

“Whenever you play a top player at poker, you learn from it,” McAulay said.

Les, of Costa Mesa, Calif., agreed that superior opponents help poker players improve.

Imo, McAulay and Les are right.

You can learn a lot from a superior opponent.


-jp

.

[thaskalos]

Imo, McAulay and Les are right.

You can learn a lot from a superior opponent.


-jp

.

But at the poker table...the "superior opponent" usually charges plenty for the education that he dishes out. :)

[Jeff P]

True.

But one thing about our game is you can paper trade while you learn.

Not that many do. :D


-jp

.

[thaskalos]

The great difference between our game and poker is that the best horseplayers aren't as easy to identify...because their results aren't "out there" for everybody to see. When you sit next to a poker player...you get to know pretty quickly whether or not he has something to "teach you"...without him having to say a word. Horse racing doesn't work the same way, in this regard.

[Irishfever]

R5 Laurel Winner Eye on Berlin

Was 9-1 with a minute to go. As the were loading it went 7-1, 6-1 and 5-1 as they left the gate. Final odds were 9-2.

[AstrosFan]

A study needs to be done on how many winners get bet down and win. We don't complain if our winning horse goes up in odds.