How Beyer figures are made

[GMB@BP]

If anyone wanted a good tutorial on the process.

Now Beyer made the figures lower than this video for all SA horses by about 3-4 points, which is interesting as that has Midnight Bisou going backwards a few lengths in a grade 1 over her grade 3 win, in fact every filly in the field went backwards.

Anyways, Mr Vosburgh breaks it down.

https://youtu.be/aketcA_hkoM

[cj]

If anyone is interested, "Mr. Vosburgh" is Doug Salvatore. He used to be an assistant with TimeformUS and did really good work.

[Denny]

Thanks CJ. Knew that name couldn't be.

I have to say that I really like what he's doing on utube and have listened and watched every one I could find. (Even if he was wrong about Audible.)

Hope he keeps doing them for all the big races.

[classhandicapper]

Now Beyer made the figures lower than this video for all SA horses by about 3-4 points, which is interesting as that has Midnight Bisou going backwards a few lengths in a grade 1 over her grade 3 win, in fact every filly in the field went backwards.



This is the reason I always say you can't be overly literal when it comes to figures. All the figure makers are very good, but they may be working with slightly different charts, have slightly different views on how to handle certain problem situations, may interpret the results differently, and since previous figures are the input to project today, if those inputs are slightly different (and they will be), they will also impact the projection.

Even after you consider all that, there are still pace and trip issues that impact the times.

When it's all said and done, imo it's less about whether the horse ran a 107 or a 110 as it is whether the race was fast, slow or average relative to the horses he's going to face next time and other factors that will determine that outcome.

[Tom]

If anyone is interested, "Mr. Vosburgh" is Doug Salvatore. He used to be an assistant with TimeformUS and did really good work.

COOL!:ThmbUp:
I like Doug.
Met him at Toga early on - very nice guy, pleasure to talk to.
Glad to hear he is still active in the game.
We need more like him in it.

[Tom]

Looked Doug up on Twitters and am now following him.
Pretty good source for interesting horse-talk. :ThmbUp: