Brisnet -- DRF Speed Rate + Variant

[horseplayer]

Brisnet - carries the DRF speed rate and track variant and this can be printed with their past performance generator - 2 tracks I downloaded today Golden Gate and Laurel are missing the speed rate and variant for any race after march 18 - 2018 called Brisnet and they said they are aware of this .

[JohnGalt1]

I called them Friday and they said it was a glitch in data received from Equibase.

Tech is working on it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe they left it out on purpose to see if anyone would notice...maybe they want to do away with it and this was their beta testing...:lol:

[JohnGalt1]

I asked that question. They said no, they still make them.

I looked at DRF charts and they still make a variant for all races.

[Denny]

If someone at DRF would just improve the Variant calculation, we could do away with the 'Beyers'.

But, everybody already knows that. Right?

[cj]

If someone at DRF would just improve the Variant calculation, we could do away with the 'Beyers'.

But, everybody already knows that. Right?

Nope, not right actually. A problem just as big with the DRF Speed Ratings is that a fifth is counted as a fifth, regardless of distance.

I also don't think you can beat a variant done with human oversight with a strict math formula. There are a lot of reasons for this, but I'll start with timing and data entry errors.

[Denny]

There are errors built in to all speed figures.

An accurate variaint is high on the list. Especially when your working with so few races at the same distance and surface.

The 1/5 is minor compared. I'd be happy with races timed in 1/10 and adjusted with different speed for different lengths (1/100 is overkill to me). Plus it robs horses of track records for a small silly difference.

An improvement would be using VELOCITY instead, using actual distance covered. Then there's all the other things being ignored when figs are calculated.

The projections are pure bs to me. Humans make more mistakes than computers.

Speed figs are still in their infancy imo and have a long way to go.

But, I do consider yours an improvement.

[cj]

There are errors built in to all speed figures.

An accurate variaint is high on the list. Especially when your working with so few races at the same distance and surface.

The 1/5 is minor compared. I'd be happy with races timed in 1/10 and adjusted with different speed for different lengths (1/100 is overkill to me). Plus it robs horses of track records for a small silly difference.

An improvement would be using VELOCITY instead, using actual distance covered. Then there's all the other things being ignored when figs are calculated.

The projections are pure bs to me. Humans make more mistakes than computers.

Speed figs are still in their infancy imo and have a long way to go.

But, I do consider yours an improvement.

I agree that they can and will be improved, but right now are limited by the data available in my opinion. Velocity is being used. Not sure what you are getting at with that one.

[Denny]

Where is velocity being used in speed figures? Other than what Sartin did.
Trakus shows velocity, put it's not part of PP's.
So where do I find a speed figure with velocity included?

[Dave Schwartz]

Where is velocity being used in speed figures? Other than what Sartin did.
Trakus shows velocity, put it's not part of PP's.
So where do I find a speed figure with velocity included?


My new software will have it. Should be Beta in May.

[cj]

Where is velocity being used in speed figures? Other than what Sartin did.
Trakus shows velocity, put it's not part of PP's.
So where do I find a speed figure with velocity included?

Point is they are the same thing expressed a different way. A 120 could just as easily be shown as 55.25 fps. What difference does it make?

[pandy]

There are errors built in to all speed figures.

An accurate variaint is high on the list. Especially when your working with so few races at the same distance and surface.

The 1/5 is minor compared. I'd be happy with races timed in 1/10 and adjusted with different speed for different lengths (1/100 is overkill to me). Plus it robs horses of track records for a small silly difference.

An improvement would be using VELOCITY instead, using actual distance covered. Then there's all the other things being ignored when figs are calculated.

The projections are pure bs to me. Humans make more mistakes than computers.

Speed figs are still in their infancy imo and have a long way to go.

But, I do consider yours an improvement.


That's true, there are errors, and it's not just the track variant. We also use parallel time charts to compare times at different distances, various run up times that can change, track pars, which also change as track surfaces are groomed and changed, and creating these different aspects of the speed fig process is all somewhat of a best guess situation. This year is the first year of the "winterized" Aqueduct main track, which has played slower and more "sustained" that the regular Aqueduct main track. And I wonder if and when NYRA is going to change the track back to the regular main track or keep the extra material on it???

A good way to make sure that the horse you're betting has an reliable figure is to compare figures from several different sources. If they don't all agree that your horse ran a fast race last time, proceed with caution.

[pandy]

There are errors built in to all speed figures.

An accurate variaint is high on the list. Especially when your working with so few races at the same distance and surface.

The 1/5 is minor compared. I'd be happy with races timed in 1/10 and adjusted with different speed for different lengths (1/100 is overkill to me). Plus it robs horses of track records for a small silly difference.

An improvement would be using VELOCITY instead, using actual distance covered. Then there's all the other things being ignored when figs are calculated.

The projections are pure bs to me. Humans make more mistakes than computers.

Speed figs are still in their infancy imo and have a long way to go.

But, I do consider yours an improvement.

Velocity ratings, FPS, for instance, have their own inaccuracies. First of all, with any rating that incorporates the fractions of the race, and not just the final time, that means you're using times that were created by whoever was calling the charts. So you're relying on someone with binoculars who is trying to call twelve horses at once.

And any velocity ratings I've seen are more dependent on the actual raw time than speed and pace figures. Some see that as a bad thing, although sometimes it is an improvement. For instance, I've seen horses run 6 furlongs in 1:09 and get a speed figure of 80, because whoever did the speed figure thought the track was very fast that day. On another day, a horse ran 6 furlongs in 1:12 and also got a speed figure of 80, because the track was slow that day. In the pps, if these two horses get into the same race, the speed figure is going to show that they are equal. But the velocity ratings, even though they're adjusted for track speed, will always make it look like the horse that ran the 1:09 was clearly faster than the horse than ran 1:12. Whether or not this is a good or bad thing is debateable. I tend to prefer to bet on horses that actually ran fast, as opposed to horses that may have run fast if the track was faster, but others disagree with that way of thinking.

[cj]

Velocity ratings, FPS, for instance, have their own inaccuracies. First of all, with any rating that incorporates the fractions of the race, and not just the final time, that means you're using times that were created by whoever was calling the charts. So you're relying on someone with binoculars who is trying to call twelve horses at once.

And any velocity ratings I've seen are more dependent on the actual raw time than speed and pace figures. Some see that as a bad thing, although sometimes it is an improvement. For instance, I've seen horses run 6 furlongs in 1:09 and get a speed figure of 80, because whoever did the speed figure thought the track was very fast that day. On another day, a horse ran 6 furlongs in 1:12 and also got a speed figure of 80, because the track was slow that day. In the pps, if these two horses get into the same race, the speed figure is going to show that they are equal. But the velocity ratings, even though they're adjusted for track speed, will always make it look like the horse that ran the 1:09 was clearly faster than the horse than ran 1:12. Whether or not this is a good or bad thing is debateable. I tend to prefer to bet on horses that actually ran fast, as opposed to horses that may have run fast if the track was faster, but others disagree with that way of thinking.

If you are making a track variant and adjusting the times by the variant, why would the velocity ratings be different?

[pandy]

If you are making a track variant and adjusting the times by the variant, why would the velocity ratings be different?

If you are only using final time, they would be the same but velocity ratings are usually based on a combination of several points of call, and the horses that ran faster usually have the lowest, and best, velocity ratings...unless the times are similar. But say you're using the Sartin/Brohamer Average Pace, in a sprint, that is the first, second, and third fraction added and divided by three. Say a horse runs 6 furlongs and goes :22, :44, 1:09 and earns an 80 speed figure (very fast track --15 variant), and another horse runs :23, :46, 1:12 and earns an 80 (average track zero variant)....the 1:09 horse would clearly be ranked as the faster horse using Average Pace, even after applying the track variant. Normally if the variant is -15, you're going to split it for the three fractions, so that would change 22 to 23, 44 to 45, and the last quarter 25 to 26. The other horse is 23, :46, 26. So the horse than ran faster has a second quarter split that is a full second faster, thus, the faster Average Pace even after applying a full second variant to slow down each quarter.

I've run these type of ratings thousands of times and the horses that ran faster raw times get better ratings using the Brohamer/Sartin type of numbers.

[cj]

If you are only using final time, they would be the same but velocity ratings are usually based on a combination of several points of call, and the horses that ran faster usually have the lowest, and best, velocity ratings...unless the times are similar. But say you're using the Sartin/Brohamer Average Pace, in a sprint, that is the first, second, and third fraction added and divided by three. Say a horse runs 6 furlongs and goes :22, :44, 1:09 and earns an 80 speed figure (very fast track --15 variant), and another horse runs :23, :46, 1:12 and earns an 80 (average track zero variant)....the 1:09 horse would clearly be ranked as the faster horse using Average Pace, even after applying the track variant. Normally if the variant is -15, you're going to split it for the three fractions, so that would change 22 to 23, 44 to 45, and the last quarter 25 to 26. The other horse is 23, :46, 26. So the horse than ran faster has a second quarter split that is a full second faster, thus, the faster Average Pace even after applying a full second variant to slow down each quarter.

I've run these type of ratings thousands of times and the horses that ran faster raw times get better ratings using the Brohamer/Sartin type of numbers.

I guess that all depends on how you apply the variant. I make separate variants for the pace calls. Using one for each call never made much sense to me.

[pandy]

If your variant for a one mile race is 2 seconds slow, doesn't splitting that in half (1 second slow) and using it to adjust the pace figure for the second call make sense?

[cj]

If your variant for a one mile race is 2 seconds slow, doesn't splitting that in half (1 second slow) and using it to adjust the pace figure for the second call make sense?

I don't think so personally. Races are rarely run evenly, so why split the variant evenly? On dirt races are much faster early than late as any velocity calculations show.

[horseplayer]

Brisnet - carries the DRF speed rate and track variant and this can be printed with their past performance generator - 2 tracks I downloaded today Golden Gate and Laurel are missing the speed rate and variant for any race after march 18 - 2018 called Brisnet and they said they are aware of this .

spoke to Brisnet today and they are still working on it - don't know if a lot of Brisnet users bother with drf spd rate and variant.

[headhawg]

spoke to Brisnet today and they are still working on it - don't know if a lot of Brisnet users bother with drf spd rate and variant.I want to say that there were studies done a long time ago that showed a better $Net for DRF speed than other more popular (accurate?) speed ratings. I have no idea whether that holds true anymore. If Bris decides to eliminate that data then I hope they roll back prices to what the TSN .eg data files were. Wasn't having to pay for using the DRF SR/TV the reason that .drf files were a buck and .eg files were $.50?

[Denny]

When i made my own figures. All I needed was an accurate track variant to outperform the ballyhooed BSFigures in DRF.

i just did NYRA. Aqueduct Inner was the best since all the races were dirt and most were at the same distances.

I gave up with the proliferation of turf racing.

Don't know that i can trust any figures today with such small samples to work with. Plus the multiple conditions for eligibility.

Why I much prefer Harness Racing now and only bet about 1/10 what i used to on the runners.
_____

Pandy, Agree on using multiple sources. I use both HE and TM figures.

PS. Always read your picks on the P4, but, why did you key the favorite as a single last week. thought you said NEVER bet the favorite to Win?

[horseplayer]

I want to say that there were studies done a long time ago that showed a better $Net for DRF speed than other more popular (accurate?) speed ratings. I have no idea whether that holds true anymore. If Bris decides to eliminate that data then I hope they roll back prices to what the TSN .eg data files were. Wasn't having to pay for using the DRF SR/TV the reason that .drf files were a buck and .eg files were $.50?

Interesting - for me the fact that they carried the total (spd rate + var) for each horses race was good for me to compare the total (spd rate + var) to the Brisnet figure rating for that race. I am sure whoever is giving this to them they are being charged for it and if they dis-continue - it would be nice to see a price reduction but that is something I doubt will happen

[Denny]

How much would a DRF PP cost if they didn't have to pay Beyer and his associates.

That's why i say improve the variant calculation and use the old speed rating combined with it.

Dump Beyer.

Second option: Use TFUS figures and still dump Andy.

Third option: DRF could let me buy PP's WITHOUT the BSFigure at a reduced price!!!

---

Why the hell they aren't they Kovitz Speed Figures?
Beyer took someone else's idea and called it his own?
That English major, Beyer, could never have come up with them on his own.

[Tom]

Buy BRIS.
$1 a card. No Beyers.

[thaskalos]

Buy BRIS.
$1 a card. No Beyers.

Or open a Twinspires account and make a $2 bet...and get the day's BRIS card for free.

[Denny]

Good ideas. DRF is overpriced.

People are paying $10 or $11 for a printed DRF.

How much of that is the BSFigures per track?

Crist and Beyer together drove the price way up.

Crist retired and abandoned the sport.

Beyer makes a healthy income thanks to Crist.

They got eclipse awards for making money off all of us. Still do?

Just my opinion.

[thaskalos]

Good ideas. DRF is overpriced.

People are paying $10 or $11 for a printed DRF.

How much of that is the BSFigures per track?

Crist and Beyer together drove the price way up.

Crist retired and abandoned the sport.

Beyer makes a healthy income thanks to Crist.

They got eclipse awards for making money off all of us. Still do?

Just my opinion.

IMO...you are being terribly unfair to Andy Beyer when you accuse him of "depending on other people" in order to make it big in this game. SO WHAT if he borrowed his speed figure concept from someone else; he gave due credit to the concept's original creator, when he could have easily pretended that the idea was all his own from the start... and, those figures would have gone NOWHERE without Beyer's efforts in promoting and explaining them. The Beyer numbers didn't become the "big deal" that they are because of Sheldon Kovitz's mathematical acumen; they became a big deal because Andy Beyer attached his name and reputation to them. Andy Beyer isn't just a "figure maker". He is the best ambassador that this game could have ever asked for.

"Beyer makes a healthy income thanks to CRIST"? :lol: Beyer made his bones in this game before anyone ever knew who Crist WAS!

[Denny]

Crist hired Beyer for the Racing Times - better figures were available.

Crist brought them to DRF - again, better figures were available - and still are.

People are paying a premium for a substandard set of figures because of Crist and Beyer.

Cronyism. Two writers, one for the NY Times, one for the WP.

The Eclipse award for a substandard product. The fix was in, so to speak. DRF originates the award and it's people vote for winners.

Beyer "stole" the figures from someone and didn't give the figures the originator's name. Only a small mention in the first book.

Which wouldn't even exist if not for Kovitz. Beyer came up with NOTHING on his own.

Kind of like what other famous "inventor's" have done.

[They should, at the very least, be Kovitz/Beyer Speed Figures.]

Beyer is a talented writer and supposedly a successful horseplayer.

You'd never know from the selections he makes every year for the Derby.

I think he made far, far more on his books and selling the figs now than he ever did betting horses.

[thaskalos]

Crist hired Beyer for the Racing Times - better figures were available.

Crist brought them to DRF - again, better figures were available - and still are.

People are paying a premium for a substandard set of figures because of Crist and Beyer.

Cronyism. Two writers, one for the NY Times, one for the WP.

The Eclipse award for a substandard product. The fix was in, so to speak. DRF originates the award and it's people vote for winners.

Beyer "stole" the figures from someone and didn't give the figures the originator's name. Only a small mention in the first book.

Which wouldn't even exist if not for Kovitz. Beyer came up with NOTHING on his own.

Kind of like what other famous "inventor's" have done.

[They should, at the very least, be Kovitz/Beyer Speed Figures.]

Beyer is a talented writer and supposedly a successful horseplayer.

You'd never know from the selections he makes every year for the Derby.

Which were the "better figures" that Crist could have elected to include in the Racing Times?

[GhostZapper1358]

Having been a true fan of thoroughbred racing and have studied most of the "Angles" for over thirty years, I have found Regression Analysis handicapping to be very effective and useful especially for exotic considerations.

[PaceAdvantage]

Crist hired Beyer for the Racing Times - better figures were available.

Crist brought them to DRF - again, better figures were available - and still are.

People are paying a premium for a substandard set of figures because of Crist and Beyer.

Cronyism. Two writers, one for the NY Times, one for the WP.

The Eclipse award for a substandard product. The fix was in, so to speak. DRF originates the award and it's people vote for winners.

Beyer "stole" the figures from someone and didn't give the figures the originator's name. Only a small mention in the first book.

Which wouldn't even exist if not for Kovitz. Beyer came up with NOTHING on his own.

Kind of like what other famous "inventor's" have done.

[They should, at the very least, be Kovitz/Beyer Speed Figures.]

Beyer is a talented writer and supposedly a successful horseplayer.

You'd never know from the selections he makes every year for the Derby.

I think he made far, far more on his books and selling the figs now than he ever did betting horses.I just called someone else an asshole on this board...you just earned the second one of the day.

[PaceAdvantage]

Crist retired and abandoned the sport.I hope one day you have a heart attack that puts you in the hospital for two weeks....then we'll see how you respond afterwards and you and Crist can compare notes.

We'll see what you end up "abandoning."

People keep telling me that there are clueless assholes posting on my board. Now I see what they mean.

[Denny]

Which were the "better figures" that Crist could have elected to include in the Racing Times?

Jerry Brown's, to name just one.

[thaskalos]

Having been a true fan of thoroughbred racing and have studied most of the "Angles" for over thirty years, I have found Regression Analysis handicapping to be very effective and useful especially for exotic considerations.

We know...you told us to google "Regression Analysis", in another thread here. I googled it...but didn't find anything horse racing-specific.

[thaskalos]

Jerry Brown's, to name just one.

Come on Denny, tell the truth. You can't afford Jerry Brown's figures...and you know it. If you could afford Brown's figures...then you wouldn't be complaining about the price of the DRF.

Beyer's figures were the best affordable figures at that time...even if you deny it.

[Tom]

Good ideas. DRF is overpriced.

People are paying $10 or $11 for a printed DRF.

How much of that is the BSFigures per track?

Crist and Beyer together drove the price way up.

Crist retired and abandoned the sport.

Beyer makes a healthy income thanks to Crist.

They got eclipse awards for making money off all of us. Still do?

Just my opinion.

Check your history - when the Beyers came to the Form in 1992, there was no price increase.

We get it - you don't know how to use them.

And Crist brought the Form in to the 20th Century - from a pretty much worthless paper to a wealth of useful information.

Brown's figs would never had made it in the Form - far too different for the masses to understand them. And what do yousuppose the From would cost if they did use them?

$25 per track per day?
$100 for a Saturday Form?

[Denny]

You guys are just plain dumb.

The cost to an individual for TGraph is irrelevant. The Form wouldn't pay that price. The comparison you make is a non sequitur.

So what Crist had a minor heart attack? That was a couple years ago.

So did Baffert and countless others that came back to work afterwards. They work a lot harder than Crist ever did with his fingers on a keyboard.

How hard would it be to write something once in a while from home???

He just plain left because he doesn't care anymore.

How do you run this site, calling people names like you do for expressing an opinion.

No wonder you need donations to keep it going.

[PaceAdvantage]

So what Crist had a minor heart attack? That was a couple years ago.Such a clueless asshole. Not many people get that from me around here. Only special, clueless assholes like yourself.

Minor heart attacks don't put you in the hospital for two weeks. Read MORE facts, create LESS fiction.

Thank me very much.

[Denny]

Thaskalos your a smart guy, unlike PA and that fool Tom who makes jokes all the time to cover for his stupidity.

I'm just returning the insults to them. Something I didn't start.

You, I could discuss things with civilly. I think.

[PaceAdvantage]

No wonder you need donations to keep it going.Must be using the same reasoning you used to come to the conclusion minor heart attacks put you in the hospital for two weeks.

You've been on the fringe since you got here with some of the crap you've flung at the wall.

Glad your true colors are finally starting to bloom.

[PaceAdvantage]

You, I could discuss things with civilly. I think.You can't discuss much with anyone, because your head is filled with garbage.

[Denny]

The man had a heart attack quite a while ago, from what I read. People have hearts replaced and still function well afterwards.

Can't even type anymore?

Is he in a coma? Is he paralyzed?

How often do you talk to him PA?

Why do you care what I think?

He just QUIT the sport, till I see otherwise anyway.

[PaceAdvantage]

How do you run this site, calling people names like you do for expressing an opinion.And saying the things you said about Crist wasn't an opinion. It borders on libel. You kook.

[Denny]

And YES, there are an amazing amount of dumb clueless people at this site.

You included, PA. Whatever your real name is.

Why not use it???

[Denny]

LIBEL. FOR SAYING HE ABANDONED THE SPORT?

You are dumb.

[PaceAdvantage]

And YES, there are an amazing amount of dumb clueless people at this site.So leave. What's stopping you?

Oh, that's right. There is no better racing forum then this one.

Thank me very much.

[PaceAdvantage]

Denny, I'm just expressing an OPINION that you're a clueless asshole. You should accept it, right? It's just an opinion man...just like you think I should accept your jackass opinions...:pound:

Your pal,

Mike

[Denny]

There are also plenty of smart people here like CJ, Pandy, Thaskalos and others like even AA, though we don't get along, I still like to read what he has to say.

You just aren't one of them Mike.

I'll comment with people I think have a clue and don't call names, which is a sign of ignorance.

You, I will just ignore as much as possible.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm pretty sure if I put up a poll, you'd win the "Who's more clueless" vote if the choices were simply Denny & PA.

[Denny]

My light turned red. I just might cry. Boo hoo hoo.

[cj]

Jerry Brown's, to name just one.

Come on...for one, I doubt Jerry Brown was interested. For two, what would that have cost compared to Beyer?

[steveb]

i was enjoying reading this thread until....

[PaceAdvantage]

It's a NY thing. We don't put up with BS all that well.

[PaceAdvantage]

No wonder you need donations to keep it going.Instead of betting $100 on that next winner of yours, bet $98 and toss $2 towards the best horse racing forum on the internet (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/misc.php?do=donate). And really, the only horse racing forum on the internet (with any appreciable action).

No shame in giving people a way to show a little appreciation for what I've been doing the past 19 years. Lord knows I've appreciated each and every person who's taken the time to contribute here.

But for the record, I don't need donations to keep it going. I'll keep it going as long as it's interesting. And vapid opinions like yours definitely keep it interesting. :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

And one last thing...:pound:

For those of you thinking, hey PA, you sure were hard on ol' Denny there...let me just say this.

When you come on here and start trashing two of the biggest horseplayer advocates this game has seen, you're going to see my full wrath. Longtime readers will know I don't go around calling just any ol' shnook an asshole.

But when you start throwing some serious undeserved BS at someone who's had the back of the horseplayer publically, for something like 35 years...

As a writer
As an INNOVATOR (Racing Times)
And from the inside (NYRA / DRF)

You're not going to get away with it...

[Tom]

....and that fool Tom who makes jokes all the time to cover for his stupidity.

Why did the chicken cross the road?
To avoid having to walk past Denny.

Just like your namesake, the diner, nobody goes to Denny's, they end up there.

YCFS!

[Denny]

Come on...for one, I doubt Jerry Brown was interested. For two, what would that have cost compared to Beyer?

What are you saying CJ. Racing Times - with the unlimited backing of billionaire Robert Maxwell - took the cheapest option???

But, you could be right. Maybe they did and that's why were still stuck with the lousy BS Figures.

There was plenty of talk back in the day of DRF going with Brown's figures.

Were you around then. I was.

----

Who's right on Justijy.

Vosburgh did an analysis and came up with a 110.
(There's a youtube on it.)

DRF gave him a 107.

BRIS a 116.

[Grits]

There are also plenty of smart people here like CJ, Pandy, Thaskalos and others like even AA, though we don't get along, I still like to read what he has to say.

You just aren't one of them Mike.

I'll comment with people I think have a clue and don't call names, which is a sign of ignorance.

You, I will just ignore as much as possible.

The rest of us, aside from those you've mentioned may be ignorant, stupid, etc, etc. However, we're wise enough to know that our participation here is possible, all these many years, because the guy who is named after the site ...OWNS THE SITE!

You have made a fool of yourself with some grossly unfortunate choices. Some horrific assumptions in your comments. It is my fervent hope that you will be made to leave. You do not warrant the privilege of participating at Pace Advantage.

Absolutely no one in their right mind would knock an individual who was as gravely ill as Stephen Crist was during the time he was hospitalized. No one would question what this man, or anyone else, would choose to do with their time following such an event. NO ONE.

As far as Beyer, you read like just another malcontent.

Many of your type have come in the door here. Sooner or later, they show themselves. Meanwhile, we usually recognize them as soon as they write, "When I was making my own figures."

You owe these gentlemen an apology.

[pandy]

When i made my own figures. All I needed was an accurate track variant to outperform the ballyhooed BSFigures in DRF.

i just did NYRA. Aqueduct Inner was the best since all the races were dirt and most were at the same distances.

I gave up with the proliferation of turf racing.

Don't know that i can trust any figures today with such small samples to work with. Plus the multiple conditions for eligibility.

Why I much prefer Harness Racing now and only bet about 1/10 what i used to on the runners.
_____

Pandy, Agree on using multiple sources. I use both HE and TM figures.

PS. Always read your picks on the P4, but, why did you key the favorite as a single last week. thought you said NEVER bet the favorite to Win?

I said never to bet the favorite to win, as a win bet, but that sometimes you have to use the favorites in exotics. But, that was on a thoroughbred thread, and I meant that for thoroughbreds, not harness. Harness racing is much different, and you can win betting favorites.

But, that being said, as a public handicapper, my picks that I give the public are based on a combination of which horse I think will win and which horse I think is the best value. I have to pick the favorites that I think are going to win, otherwise, my win percentage would be too low and I wouldn't be doing picks because no one would hire me. But that doesn't mean that I bet the favorites.

[Exotic1]

Come on Denny, tell the truth. You can't afford Jerry Brown's figures...and you know it. If you could afford Brown's figures...then you wouldn't be complaining about the price of the DRF.

Beyer's figures were the best affordable figures at that time...even if you deny it.

In terms of predictive value, it's possible that Thorograph numbers are more predictive than Beyer's, though I'm not certain of that at all. Years ago, there was an effort to compare speed fig/performance fig from different providers. In terms of making money, that's something else entirely. One of the problems with making money with Beyer is that mutuel prices have come down b/c of just how good they are. This is not a knock on TG #'s at all. Obviously, they are very good. Just pointing out the obvious that predictive value and making money seem to be three different things.

[Tom]

"When I was making my own figures."

Why did you stop?
Your calculator battery die?

[Denny]

It's a NY thing. We don't put up with BS all that well.

I'm a New Yorker.

[Denny]

Why did you stop?
Your calculator battery die?

I was making figures before pc's. So a calculator was actually pretty important.
I explained before why I stopped making figures. Also, couldn't feed a family on betting horses. Had to get a real job. How much you lose on horses?

Nice choice of avatar btw. Appears to fit you perfectly in every way possible!

[PaceAdvantage]

I hear Denny applied for the job as DRF chief speed figure maker before they went with Beyer. Even showed up to Crist's office with calculator in tow.

All makes sense now.

[Denny]

Grits,

Timeline:
2014 Crist has heart attack
2016 Crist retires from DRF
2017 Crist gets Eclipse Award

He was well enough to go back to work for two years and go pick up his eclipse a year later.

Then he deserted the game. Why can't i point that out?

You all make it sound like spending two weeks in a hospital is the end of the world and - i can't say a bad word about him.

If he truly loved the sport, he'd still be active in some way imo.

[Denny]

I hear Denny applied for the job as DRF chief speed figure maker before they went with Beyer. Even showed up to Crist's office with calculator in tow.

All makes sense now.

You're such a jerk Mike.

[PaceAdvantage]

Grits,

Timeline:
2014 Crist has heart attack
2016 Crist retires from DRF
2017 Crist gets Eclipse Award

He was well enough to go back to work for two years and go pick up his eclipse a year later.

Then he deserted the game. Why can't i point that out?

You all make it sound like spending two weeks in a hospital is the end of the world and - i can't say a bad word about him.

If he truly loved the sport, he'd still be active in some way imo.Doubling down on your dickness I see. No, wait, maybe that was a triple-down.

Guy can't retire after spending 35 years of his life as an advocate for the horseplayer, with he himself being a horseplayer, without some jackass on the internet calling him out for retiring after 35 years and one major heart attack.

Let me guess, you either got fired from the DRF at one point, or they never hired you in the first place.

[Denny]

BTW, Beyer's Par times are atrocious. Mine were far better.

[PaceAdvantage]

You're such a jerk Mike.Only to those who deserve it. And you qualify in spades.

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, Beyer's Par times are atrocious. Mine were far better.We are getting so warm, aren't we? You're a disgruntled ex- or non-employee. :pound:

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, Beyer's Par times are atrocious. Mine were far better.BTW, I think you're personally responsible for the last 3-4 donations I've received since last night.

Thanks buddy! :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, don't forget to post about all the emails and PMs you've received warning you not to go against Serling, NYRA, or any of the "NY Crew," or you'll get banned by me. :lol::pound:

I always enjoy it when someone drags out that tired old meme.

[Denny]

I didn't call him out for retiring.

It was awful he had a heart attack, but, it didn't stop him from working afterwards or flying to Miami for his award.

I called him out for leaving and not contributing anymore.

Or was it just a job that he made a living at - all along and now he's "retired"?

Screw the current horseplayer and the game he lived off of. Is that what he's doing in effect by his silence?

[Grits]

Grits,

Timeline:
2014 Crist has heart attack
2016 Crist retires from DRF
2017 Crist gets Eclipse Award

He was well enough to go back to work for two years and go pick up his eclipse a year later.

Then he deserted the game. Why can't i point that out?

You all make it sound like spending two weeks in a hospital is the end of the world and - i can't say a bad word about him.

If he truly loved the sport, he'd still be active in some way imo.

Why don't we just conclude with a very simple concept, dude???

THIS IS NOT YOUR CALL.

This was an extremely successful man, in his chosen field. He retired, something people do every day. While you, on the other hand, are here, on a public message board, wailing and moaning like an errant preschooler.

Admit you were out of line or just STOP! Sadly, what escapes you is the fact that you're appearing worse by the hour.

[Denny]

BTW, I think you're personally responsible for the last 3-4 donations I've received since last night.

Thanks buddy! :ThmbUp:

Glad to help. Your welcome.

[PaceAdvantage]

I didn't call him out for retiring.

It was awful he had a heart attack, but, it didn't stop him from working afterwards or flying to Miami for his award.

I called him out for leaving and not contributing anymore.

Or was it just a job that he made a living at - all along and now he's "retired"?

Screw the current horseplayer and the game he lived off of. Is that what he's doing in effect by his silence?So let me get this straight. You're pissed because after giving 35 years of his life to the game and to horseplayers, you're pissed he doesn't keep going non-stop until he finally drops dead?

Makes sense...but to only you.

[Denny]

Why shouldn't he contribute?

Is it the game that is "killing him"?

Then again, maybe he's just sick of what it is and wants nothing to do with it.

Can't blame him for that.

[Denny]

BTW, don't forget to post about all the emails and PMs you've received warning you not to go against Serling, NYRA, or any of the "NY Crew," or you'll get banned by me. :lol::pound:

I always enjoy it when someone drags out that tired old meme.

I have no idea what you're trying to say here. Is this directed at me or anyone in particular?

[PaceAdvantage]

I have no idea what you're trying to say here. Is this directed at me or anyone in particular?Never mind. The people who usually claim to get all these advisory PMs are full of crap anyway.

[Tom]

Why shouldn't he contribute?

Is it the game that is "killing him"?

Then again, maybe he's just sick of what it is and wants nothing to do with it.

Can't blame him for that.

Maybe he read some of your posts.

[Denny]

Maybe he read some of your posts.

Why would he care what I have to say?

Why is anybody here concerned either? You included chimp.

[PaceAdvantage]

Why would he care what I have to say?

Why is anybody here concerned either?There's a difference between being concerned and responding with feedback. I'm not concerned at all.

[Denny]

On the original issue of Speed Figures and Past Performances.

Wasn't the game, for those who have been around it for a long time, much more enjoyable before everybody had speed figures?

Wasn't it also more enjoyable before trainer statistics were everywhere fo everybody to see? Including the owners and trainers themselves.

Aren't both of these things are big reason why trainers run their horses so infrequently. They bought into bounce theories and are so concerned with their win percentage performance?

Loved the sport so much more before.

Now we get shorter prices than ever - and see horses run less often than ever before

Thank you for spoiling the fun for the average player and fan you guys!!!

Yes, I include SC and AB in the "you" at fault.

[thaskalos]

On the original issue of Speed Figures and Past Performances.

Wasn't the game, for those who have been around it for a long time, much more enjoyable before everybody had speed figures?

Wasn't it also more enjoyable before trainer statistics were everywhere fo everybody to see? Including the owners and trainers themselves.

Aren't both of these things are big reason why trainers run their horses so infrequently. They bought into bounce theories and are so concerned with their win percentage performance?

Loved the sport so much more before.

Now we get shorter prices than ever - and see horses run less often than ever before

Thank you for spoiling the fun for the average player and fan you guys!!!

Yes, I include SC and AB in the "you" at fault.

The game was more enjoyable before, there is no doubt about that...but the speed figures and the trainer stats aren't to blame for the game's decline. This being the "information age", this statistical "evolution" was to be expected as a natural progression of the game...and it needn't necessarily be a bad thing.

The game suffers today because it's alienated itself from the vast majority of its customers. When an industry treats its customers with contempt in a competitive marketplace...then it doesn't take a genius to predict what its future will be.

[Denny]

The game was more enjoyable before, there is no doubt about that...but the speed figures and the trainer stats aren't to blame for the game's decline. This being the "information age", this statistical "evolution" was to be expected as a natural progression of the game...and it needn't necessarily be a bad thing.

The game suffers today because it's alienated itself from the vast majority of its customers. When an industry treats its customers with contempt in a competitive marketplace...then it doesn't take a genius to predict what its future will be.

I hear you, but, not sure that's anything new.
NYRA was treating customers that way in the 70's (when i started attending).
Only the upper class got any attention or respect.
They always treated regular customers like crap.

The stats being everywhere and the speed figs everywhere is a newer phenomenon. Trainers like Pletcher and Brown are so concerned with their win percentage. Didn't used to be that way.
Do you think Woody ever cared about his percentage?

Trainers ran their horses twice as often as today.
They modern horsemen put more importance into a horse's "sheet" than how the horse is actually doing.

People who made their own figs enjoyed an advantage and they deserved too with all the work that was required.
Now EVERYBODY has reasonably good figs and PRICE has suffered.

It just isn't much fun for the player as it used to be when the FORM contained basic FACTUAL information (not subjective figs) and tons of trainer stats - and that isn't the track's fault.

[steveb]

BTW, Beyer's Par times are atrocious. Mine were far better.

the actual times mean diddly squat, but being an expert you already knew that didn't you?

[thaskalos]

I hear you, but, not sure that's anything new.
NYRA was treating customers that way in the 70's (when i started attending).
Only the upper class got any attention or respect.
They always treated regular customers like crap.

The stats being everywhere and the speed figs everywhere is a newer phenomenon. Trainers like Pletcher and Brown are so concerned with their win percentage. Didn't used to be that way.
Do you think Woody ever cared about his percentage?

Trainers ran their horses twice as often as today.
They modern horsemen put more importance into a horse's "sheet" than how the horse is actually doing.

People who made their own figs enjoyed an advantage and they deserved too with all the work that was required.
Now EVERYBODY has reasonably good figs and PRICE has suffered.

It just isn't much fun for the player as it used to be when the FORM contained basic FACTUAL information (not subjective figs) and tons of trainer stats - and that isn't the track's fault.

Yes...the tracks treated the customers like crap in the 70s too. But there were no other gambling options for the customer back then...and the tracks were able to get away with treating their customers disrespectfully. That sort of attitude doesn't fly today...because now there is stiff competition for the gambler's dollar.

As far as the speed figures are concerned, you can't expect pertinent information to remain secret too long in the gambling business. What happened in horse racing has happened in sports betting, poker, blackjack, etc. In every "beatable" form of gambling, people research things and eventually report their findings to the rest of the gamblers...and the games get tougher as a result. That's why we say that a winning gambler can't rest on his laurels while admiring his "gambling skill". He better keep working to maintain his edge over the crowd...because the "crowd" gets smarter and smarter as the time passes.

IMO...the horses are running less than they used to because the game is currently run with only the horsemen in mind. The horsemen have figured out that they have a better chance of collecting a sizable check in a 6-horse field than in a 12-horse field...so, the 6-horse fields proliferate everywhere. Even when 8 horses are entered to appease the racing secretary, there are the obligatory 2 late scratches...and the field is reduced to 6 again. The purses are high, and the tracks keep collecting their casino profits, so...who cares if the horseplayers get stuck with short, uncompetitive fields, and puny payoffs? The speed figures and the trainer stats have nothing to do with the size of the fields that we see.

[Denny]

Thaskalos,

You don't think trainers ascribe to the "bounce"?
Horse runs a big fig = trainer gives him two months off to "recover".

Trainer wants a flashy win percentage next to his name to attract owners.
Only runs his horses accordingly?

Agree with most of the other stuff you said.

As an aside. Day rates isn't part of the conversation, but, would trainers run more often if they only made money from purse winnings?
Instead they sucker owners with expensive day rates and all the owner gets to see for his money is workouts!
The horsemen have a nice thing going. Why interrupt it with running in a race?

The casino dole. That's another issue. Did you see the articles in the Philly and Pitts newspapers?
The state gives more money to the horse breeders than it spends on numerous government programs. Almost as much as on the entire state police!

Somebody's gonna notice and shut that casino dole spigot.

[Frankie D]

I have been using the Brisnet "ultimate PP"'s that you can download from twinspires free if making a bet.

Could someone enlighten me as to what are the speed numbers on these both before and after the March 18 date?

Details if possible. What are those numbers for the given date breakdown? In particular I want the numbers being used there after March 18....

[Tom]

What is special about March 18?
I'm not aware of any change to the numbers.

Do you have any PPs for today?

[Frankie D]

What is special about March 18?
I'm not aware of any change to the numbers.

Do you have any PPs for today?

it is the date given near the top of the thread before the hissyfit - supposedly when a changes was made

may not be exact but the way I play distinctly sharpened up at almost exactly the same time. I use the numbers in two ways along with some other factors.

I would REALLY like to understand what the number is and the change from earlier . I do have the PP's from today.

:)

[pandy]

I noticed that some people are suggesting that the fact that everyone has speed figures has hurt the game. I don't buy this theory. When there's a meet that seems to have very little value, in other words, too many short payoffs, not many overlaid winners, that's usually a track where the fields are short or the racing just isn't that competitive. At any track that has good size fields and competitive racing, it's still damn hard to pick winners and having speed figures doesn't make it an easy game.

Racing's problems aren't because of speed figures or giving player's too much info. It's a shortage of horses, and the fragility of the horses now (they don't race as often), which also leads to small fields.

There aren't enough owners, or horses, and there aren't enough good horses. Tracks that have cheap horses can fill fields much easier, but that's not good racing. But, at Keeneland, Saratoga, Oaklawn, and Gulfstream, the racing is very good and the field size is good. And there's plenty of value. But as time goes on, there simply aren't going to be enough horses, and in particular, good horses, to fill cards at most meets, outside of the ones I mentioned, and perhaps a few others.

[JohnGalt1]

I spoke with Bris today.

Person I talked to spoke with tech supervisor who told him they will work on the problem after the Derby. It is a communication problem between Equibase and Bris pp generator.

If they worked on it when I told them 2 weeks ago, and if they work on it now, they said they could screw up something else and make others angry.

I am not a programmer, so maybe this makes sense.

So we will have about a 2 month period of no track variants from about 3/15-5/15 races in pps.


I said I may switch from Twin Spires if this is not fixed in a timely manner.

I just downloaded Kee 4/18 card from Post Time Daily for $1.50 instead of the $.80 that Bris charges me.

It has DRF variants, and their software allows adjustments to the pps.

[Tom]

So BRIS screwed up something that has been working for DECADES and now can't unscrew it?

Why am I not surprised?
Do you know if the SR+Tv is in the file itself?
If it is, you can use Infotran to get the data out.
A bit more work, or if you have a newer version of Excel, you could open the datafile and extract them.

I know, a pain, but if you really need them.....

[thaskalos]

I spoke with Bris today.

Person I talked to spoke with tech supervisor who told him they will work on the problem after the Derby. It is a communication problem between Equibase and Bris pp generator.

If they worked on it when I told them 2 weeks ago, and if they work on it now, they said they could screw up something else and make others angry.

I am not a programmer, so maybe this makes sense.

So we will have about a 2 month period of no track variants from about 3/15-5/15 races in pps.


I said I may switch from Twin Spires if this is not fixed in a timely manner.

I just downloaded Kee 4/18 card from Post Time Daily for $1.50 instead of the $.80 that Bris charges me.

It has DRF variants, and their software allows adjustments to the pps.

What does this mean? The Brisnet figures won't take the track variant into consideration for a period of 2 months? And this company asks to be taken seriously as a past-performance provider?

[PICSIX]

Brisnet - carries the DRF speed rate and track variant and this can be printed with their past performance generator - 2 tracks I downloaded today Golden Gate and Laurel are missing the speed rate and variant for any race after march 18 - 2018 called Brisnet and they said they are aware of this .

How do you turn this feature on in PP Generator?

Thanks,

Mike

[PICSIX]

spoke to Brisnet today and they are still working on it - don't know if a lot of Brisnet users bother with drf spd rate and variant.

I dump them into an excel spreadsheet to compare with BRIS speed fig.

[cj]

What does this mean? The Brisnet figures won't take the track variant into consideration for a period of 2 months? And this company asks to be taken seriously as a past-performance provider?

I don't think BRIS speed figure use the DRF variant.

[JohnGalt1]

How do you turn this feature on in PP Generator?

Thanks,

Mike


On the top click styles.

Then make a new style. It will let you adjust to delete things and add things, like company line, which I delete and add purse values, drf speed rating and variant. At least you get the variant for pre March races.

Play around with it. You can undo any changes made.

[horseplayer]

I spoke with Bris today.

Person I talked to spoke with tech supervisor who told him they will work on the problem after the Derby. It is a communication problem between Equibase and Bris pp generator.

If they worked on it when I told them 2 weeks ago, and if they work on it now, they said they could screw up something else and make others angry.

I am not a programmer, so maybe this makes sense.

So we will have about a 2 month period of no track variants from about 3/15-5/15 races in pps.


I said I may switch from Twin Spires if this is not fixed in a timely manner.

I just downloaded Kee 4/18 card from Post Time Daily for $1.50 instead of the $.80 that Bris charges me.

It has DRF variants, and their software allows adjustments to the pps.

Thanx for posting this

Last week when I last spoke to a tech rep he said that he noted my original complaint and would resolve it --- and then I got a refund for 2 files that I had downloaded- but he made no mention of any resolution to fix
problem .

If and when they do fix it - I wonder if they will fill in the missing spd rate and variant for those back races when the problem started .

[PICSIX]

On the top click styles.

Then make a new style. It will let you adjust to delete things and add things, like company line, which I delete and add purse values, drf speed rating and variant. At least you get the variant for pre March races.

Play around with it. You can undo any changes made.

Thanks:ThmbUp:

[Gentz]

I spoke with Bris today.

Person I talked to spoke with tech supervisor who told him they will work on the problem after the Derby. It is a communication problem between Equibase and Bris pp generator.

If they worked on it when I told them 2 weeks ago, and if they work on it now, they said they could screw up something else and make others angry.

I am not a programmer, so maybe this makes sense.

So we will have about a 2 month period of no track variants from about 3/15-5/15 races in pps.


I said I may switch from Twin Spires if this is not fixed in a timely manner.

I just downloaded Kee 4/18 card from Post Time Daily for $1.50 instead of the $.80 that Bris charges me.

It has DRF variants, and their software allows adjustments to the pps.

What kind of adjustments does their software allow?

[upthecreek]

What kind of adjustments does their software allow?

http://posttimedaily.com/post-time-2-0/

[FakeNameChanged]

I spoke with Bris today.

Person I talked to spoke with tech supervisor who told him they will work on the problem after the Derby. It is a communication problem between Equibase and Bris pp generator.

If they worked on it when I told them 2 weeks ago, and if they work on it now, they said they could screw up something else and make others angry.

I am not a programmer, so maybe this makes sense.

So we will have about a 2 month period of no track variants from about 3/15-5/15 races in pps.


I said I may switch from Twin Spires if this is not fixed in a timely manner.

I just downloaded Kee 4/18 card from Post Time Daily for $1.50 instead of the $.80 that Bris charges me.

It has DRF variants, and their software allows adjustments to the pps.
So the track variant is still available thru Equibase which I buy a few times a week, but not in Bris? Couldn't you just go to drf.com and from the pdf results files get the variant which is published for all tracks and races every day? You may have to manually input it into your file for your tracks of interest.

[PICSIX]

I'm now displaying days since last race (DSLR), DRF/Variant & DRF + Variant.
Awesome! :headbanger:

[JohnGalt1]

So the track variant is still available thru Equibase which I buy a few times a week, but not in Bris? Couldn't you just go to drf.com and from the pdf results files get the variant which is published for all tracks and races every day? You may have to manually input it into your file for your tracks of interest.


For the next few months I will use Post Time Daily because I doubt Bris will put the variants in on past races that were missed.

Spending another $.70 is more cost efficient than looking up charts for old races.

Because I'm set in my ways, I wish Bris didn't have this problem, and that they cared enough to fix it promptly, so I didn't have to go elsewhere.

PTD pp's are in slightly different format than Bris's.

[Denny]

Interesting that one poster says he's done BETTER since the figure problem - without knowing there was a problem.

Figs have lost their value. You can do better concentrating on other factors.

[classhandicapper]

Figs have lost their value. You can do better concentrating on other factors.

It's a bit of a dilemma.

The times of races matter, but making speed figures part of your handicapping tends to reduce the value of whatever else you are doing.

If you find some approach that's close to break even on it's own and decide to only play the ones that have the top speed figure also, it will probably raise the win% and lower the ROI.

[JohnGalt1]

Dave from Bris just called my home at 1 PM central time and said the problem has been fixed going forward.

The about 2 month period of no variants from mid-March to now will not be able to be fixed so the gap will remain.

I will still use Post Time Daily pp's for a month or two until Bris's current races have the variants.

[JohnGalt1]

Dave from Bris phoned me again.

He said they were able to fix the problem with the older races that are missing the variants.

I haven't verified it yet, but if so, this should end this thread.

[PaceAdvantage]

Figs have lost their value. You can do better concentrating on other factors.For you, maybe...and whatever figs you use or used to use.

Doesn't mean that's the same for everyone.