final 3/8 for major 9 furlong prep races

[sbcaris]

So Far the following horses have qualified on my final 3/8 angle in a major 9 furlong prep race: SA Derby, Wood, Blue Grass, Louisiana Derby,Florida Derby and Ark Derby. (Note- the qualifier must ran the last 3 furlongs faster than 38 flat.)

Florida Derby------------Audible 37 2/5
------- ----------------Hofburg 37 3/5

Louisiana Derby---------My Boy Jack 36 4/5

Wood Memorial---------Vino Rosso 37 2/5

Santa Anita Derby------Justify----- 37 flat
------------------------Bolt D Oro- 37 1/5

This method gets around 67% Derby winners from only around 33% of the starters. The impact value is around 2.00.

[Afleet]

What did Free Drop Billy run last 3/8 in the Bluegrass?

[bobozoid]

according to trakus and the formula i use

Free Drop Billy 38.67

[clicknow]

Hofburg, Mendelssohn and Audible, My Boy Jack would also qualify, but not sure what "formula" you use. Final 3/8 doesn't tell as much as final 1/8 for me.

I believe Animal Kingdom ran 39.3 in his final prep. (Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top ran 36.7 and 37.2 and didn't do squat) , super saver 38.07 and I don't believe Silverstone or Grindstone would meet your specs, as both were over 38 in their final preps.... Mine That Bird was 40.35 -----which is why 3/8th doesn't really work for me w/out "other measurements". OF course the person who did these measurements may not use the same "formula" as you do.....we seem to run into that problem every year. :)

[Afleet]

according to trakus and the formula i use

Free Drop Billy 38.67

Thanks; with being checked and held up then herded out I would think you would have to knock off a few clicks. How do you quantify loss of momentum?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Hofburg, Mendelssohn and Audible, My Boy Jack would also qualify, but not sure what "formula" you use. Final 3/8 doesn't tell as much as final 1/8 for me.

I believe Animal Kingdom ran 39.3 in his final prep. (Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top ran 36.7 and 37.2 and didn't do squat) , super saver 38.07 and I don't believe Silverstone or Grindstone would meet your specs, as both were over 38 in their final preps.... Mine That Bird was 40.35 -----which is why 3/8th doesn't really work for me w/out "other measurements". OF course the person who did these measurements may not use the same "formula" as you do.....we seem to run into that problem every year. :)

Interesting to note My Boy Jack really flattened in the last 1/8 ran it slower than Noble Indy who was near the fast pace all the way around. IMO My Boy Jack will be much better as a miler and no real threat at 1 1/4.

[f2tornado]

Interesting to note My Boy Jack really flattened in the last 1/8 ran it slower than Noble Indy who was near the fast pace all the way around. IMO My Boy Jack will be much better as a miler and no real threat at 1 1/4.

He did hang yet still scored a Brisnet LP figure 20 points higher than the winner. MBJ should win his share of 8.5F outings. He still needs points to make Derby gate.

[GMB@BP]

He did hang yet still scored a Brisnet LP figure 20 points higher than the winner. MBJ should win his share of 8.5F outings. He still needs points to make Derby gate.

Think they were talking about the Lexington for him.

[Bennie]

I just put a futures bet in on My Boy Jack. TVG/NJBets is offering a money back if your horse doesn't make the gate, up to $10. I think he is sitting at #20 on the points list and with the Arkansas coming up and with Magnum, Solomini, and Quip already ahead on points someone else would have to finish in the top 3 to push him out and you can usually count on a defection or 2 in the top 20. I think he should make the gate but if he doesn't I get my money back. If he does then I have him at about 30-1 if that is where he closes today. Thought it was worth the price.

[cj]

I did a bit of research on this and the last three furlongs alone isn't really all that relative. I've only done 2015-2017 so far, but when you rank the field by last fraction and then by speed figure (I'm using TimeformUS adjusted last fraction and speed figures---of course I am) and add them together (lowest score wins), the winner was in the top 3 each time.

The top rating ran 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in the three years.

The winner was rated 8th, 9th, and 4th on last fraction alone.

The winner was rated 2nd, 2nd, and 1st on speed figure.

I'm going to go back 10 more years and see how it holds up, particularly when non-favorites were winning. I'll post more soon.

[cj]

I did a bit of research on this and the last three furlongs alone isn't really all that relative. I've only done 2015-2017 so far, but when you rank the field by last fraction and then by speed figure (I'm using TimeformUS adjusted last fraction and speed figures---of course I am) and add them together (lowest score wins), the winner was in the top 3 each time.

The top rating ran 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in the three years.

The winner was rated 8th, 9th, and 4th on last fraction alone.

The winner was rated 2nd, 2nd, and 1st on speed figure.

I'm going to go back 10 more years and see how it holds up, particularly when non-favorites were winning. I'll post more soon.

Added three more years, have 2017 to 2012 now. Here is where the winner was rated:

Combined Last speed figure and last fraction rankings:

1-3-3-2-2-3

Last speed figure

1-2-2-1-4-2

Last fraction

4-9-8-5-4-7


Keep in mind I only rated 9f dirt races.

[GMB@BP]

Added three more years, have 2017 to 2012 now. Here is where the winner was rated:

Combined Last speed figure and last fraction rankings:

1-3-3-2-2-3

Last speed figure

1-2-2-1-4-2

Last fraction

4-9-8-5-4-7


Keep in mind I only rated 9f dirt races.

Interesting in the Last Speed Figure....

of course the last 5 years has been very formful so guess that is to be expected.

[cj]

Interesting in the Last Speed Figure....

of course the last 5 years has been very formful so guess that is to be expected.

Yes, agree, though I'll Have Another is included in there too.

It is getting trickier as I go backwards. Synth racing was a lot more prevalent in the big prep races so I'm not sure how much the data will really mean unless I include it. Leaving out up to this point really didn't mean much since very few of the horses from synthetic preps ran much at all.

[GMB@BP]

Yes, agree, though I'll Have Another is included in there too.

It is getting trickier as I go backwards. Synth racing was a lot more prevalent in the big prep races so I'm not sure how much the data will really mean unless I include it. Leaving out up to this point really didn't mean much since very few of the horses from synthetic preps ran much at all.

Good point about syn, really clouded derby preps for a while.

[clicknow]

with being checked and held up then herded out I would think you would have to knock off a few clicks. How do you quantify loss of momentum?

That's a good question.


I put Free Drop Billy in some of my future wager exacta combos, in case the speed gets wobbly legged in the stretch. The other 2 I did this with were Solomini and Hofburg. None are flashy but may be "gas in tank at 10F" types.

[cj]

I did a bit of research on this and the last three furlongs alone isn't really all that relative. I've only done 2015-2017 so far, but when you rank the field by last fraction and then by speed figure (I'm using TimeformUS adjusted last fraction and speed figures---of course I am) and add them together (lowest score wins), the winner was in the top 3 each time.

The top rating ran 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in the three years.

The winner was rated 8th, 9th, and 4th on last fraction alone.

The winner was rated 2nd, 2nd, and 1st on speed figure.

I'm going to go back 10 more years and see how it holds up, particularly when non-favorites were winning. I'll post more soon.

Nobody other than GMB showed much interest but it wasn't my loss. :) This is how the rankings looked pre-race this year:

https://image.ibb.co/nNx6R7/DerbyFF.png

[Tom]

Interesting.
I have seen stuff from Frandsen using BRIS data for the Breeder' cUp races - one of the more positive rating they had was SR + LP ratings. You need the SR to get the final fraction into some real world position for opportunity.

[cj]

Interesting.
I have seen stuff from Frandsen using BRIS data for the Breeder' cUp races - one of the more positive rating they had was SR + LP ratings. You need the SR to get the final fraction into some real world position for opportunity.

Good stuff. I've been having a lot of success this year using speed figures combined with certain fractions depending on surface and distance. I've found speed figures in turf dashes (5f, 5.5f) don't mean much at all most of the time if not backed by some solid early speed, for example.

I'm sure it has all been done before, but with the adjusted fractions is it kind of new ground for me.

[Tom]

For those who have not looked at them or used them the adjusted figures in TFUS are extremely good. I use them in Sartin programs and in Excel in other formulae I have come with with. Those who like TPR - this is the way to go. Use the horse's time and no adjustment are needed for track to track, daily variant - perfect material!

I like to add the final fraction to the final time in turf routes to seperate horse ranked close on speed figure, say 118, 116, 119 - the weight of the late speed helps me a lot.

I do believe Sartin/RDSS has the incremental match up screen that
show F1, F2, and True Speed + F3, that Zilly used to post screen shots of a lot.

Good stuff - lots of fun experimenting.:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[GMB@BP]

For those who have not looked at them or used them the adjusted figures in TFUS are extremely good. I use them in Sartin programs and in Excel in other formulae I have come with with. Those who like TPR - this is the way to go. Use the horse's time and no adjustment are needed for track to track, daily variant - perfect material!

I like to add the final fraction to the final time in turf routes to seperate horse ranked close on speed figure, say 118, 116, 119 - the weight of the late speed helps me a lot.

I do believe Sartin/RDSS has the incremental match up screen that
show F1, F2, and True Speed + F3, that Zilly used to post screen shots of a lot.

Good stuff - lots of fun experimenting.:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Good stuff, have you automated this with a program or just do it manually?

[Tom]

I just hand-enter into Excel.
Programming is not my forte. I used to do some simple programs in basic on my old Sharp 360 Handheld or Radio Shack Hand held, but nothing like what I see some guys here doing.

If I am using a Sartin Program, or MPH, I have to cut the times back to 1/5's for those old programs and then hand enter.

[cj]

I just hand-enter into Excel.
Programming is not my forte. I used to do some simple programs in basic on my old Sharp 360 Handheld or Radio Shack Hand held, but nothing like what I see some guys here doing.

If I am using a Sartin Program, or MPH, I have to cut the times back to 1/5's for those old programs and then hand enter.

Hundredths to fifths in Excel, assuming time in hundredths in cell A1:

= INT(A1) + INT((A1-INT(A1))/0.2)/10

72.45 gives you 72.2.

72.38 gives you 72.1

etc, etc.

[Tom]

Thanks! That will save me a lot of time and avoid errors.