Arkansas Derby

[LoneF]

Anybody else thinking this could be a ice cold exacta Magnum Moon over Quip ..

[Immortal6]

Do you have a list of all the entries?

[Raider]

Do you have a list of all the entries?
last I looked


Combatant
Magnum Moon*
Solomini
Gidu
My Boy Jack
Quip*

[LoneF]

I didn’t know My Boy Jack was going to run also. Well if that’s the case than I still like Magnum Moon on top but might play a trifecta instead using both Quip and My Boy Jack for the 2nd and 3rd spots.

[clicknow]

I don't know what the final field looks like yet, but hunch is that a "new shooter" will win the Arkansas Derby or the Lexington.

[GMB@BP]

If Magnum Moon run a big figure I could see him second choice, maybe co second with Bolt...the pletcher horses are running their eyeballs out so it probably should be expected.

[Afleet]

If Magnum Moon run a big figure I could see him second choice, maybe co second with Bolt...the pletcher horses are running their eyeballs out so it probably should be expected.

Can't see Bolt as the second favorite

[GMB@BP]

Can't see Bolt as the second favorite

have we been watching the same races the past 6 months?

[Afleet]

have we been watching the same races the past 6 months?

yes-three losses in a row and smoked by Good Magic in the BC on his home track. Good Magic should be lower odds than Bolt w/Justify the favorite.

[f2tornado]

yes-three losses in a row and smoked by Good Magic in the BC on his home track. Good Magic should be lower odds than Bolt w/Justify the favorite.

This. And Pool 4 supports it. Bolt and GM were tied for 5th favorite at 9-1.

[GMB@BP]

This. And Pool 4 supports it. Bolt and GM were tied for 5th favorite at 9-1.

If Bolt is 9/1 in the Derby I will be going all in, he is easily the second best horse unless Magnum Moon pops this week.

Vino Rosso is not much horse, and while i respect Good Magic he has not run near Bolt best races.

[f2tornado]

If Bolt is 9/1 in the Derby I will be going all in, he is easily the second best horse unless Magnum Moon pops this week.

Vino Rosso is not much horse, and while i respect Good Magic he has not run near Bolt best races.

I’m with you on Bolt. 9-1 seemed generous and someone who thinks he will be lower on Derby day could have locked in. I recall I’ll Have Another was very legit and let off at I believe 19-1. I know the wise guy term can be a perjorative but I suspect Bolt will be taking his share of that money, perhaps making him third choice pending outcome of the Ark.

I’m inclined to also agree on Good Magic and if that horse had most any other trainer I’d be off the bandwagon. Chad Brown is the master at having his ponies fully cranked for a big dance and the best may be yet to come for this colt.

Disagree on Vino Rosso. That horse has a Derby winning pedigree. Fast closing Raise A Native horses have a massive Derby winning impact value. As do fast closing Buckpasser-x horses. JV would be a huge plus if he decides against Audible. And wouldn’t it be nice to break the favorite streak? No complaints if he did come in second to Bolt since I accidentally made a $3 box in pool 3 by clicking 23 instead of 24. That ticket is around 680-1 on the low end.

[LoneF]

Good Magic has not run any races close to the best Bolt has ?????

The ONLY route race Bolt has ever actually crossed the line first in was early in his 2 year old year when he won the Frontrunner. The only horse I recognized from that race that is still on the derby trail is Solomini.

Since that victory by Bolt let’s look at what Good Magic has done. Crushed Bolt head to head in the BC Juvenile earning champion 2 yr old and now just winning the Bluegrass stakes. I will take more recent BC Juvenile and Bluegrass wins over a Frontrunner Stakes win over Solomini ages ago.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not trying to say Bolt is garbage. I am sure I will end up using Bolt some in the exotics but there is no way I use him on top and to say he has better creditentials than Good Magic is just crazy in my opinion but to be fair Good Magic is currently #1 on my personal Derby list so I am looking at it from the perspective of someone who will most likely heavily be using Good Magic on my derby tickets ...

[LoneF]

To be honest I am surprised that Audible and Magnum Moon are not getting much love on the forum and this comes from someone that is not a Todd Pletcher fan. In my opinion rooting for Pletcher to win the Derby is like rooting for the Patriots to win the Super Bowl but of course I am a gambler first so if Pletcher has the right horse than I will not like it but I willl put my money on Pletcher if that’s the right move.

My derby horses right now are Good Magic, Mendelssohn, Audible and possibly Magnum Moon depending on how he looks in Arkansas.

I spent a long time tearing apart Audibles past races trying to find any reason to leave him off my list. I really don’t want to have to use him at all on the win end but this horse has done nothing wrong and looked very good doing it. Since losing his first race as a Maiden he has done nothing but win impressively including the Holy Bull and Florida Derby and we all know the last two winners have come from the Florida Derby.

Magnum Moon is undefeated and has also looked real good doing it. The only reason he is not already on my list is because I am really hoping he runs a dud in Arkansas, but if he doesn’t and he looks good again than how could anyone leave him off their short list ???

People seem to have really jumped on the Justify and Bolt bandwagon but has either of those horses accomplished what Audible has ???

[f2tornado]

To be honest I am surprised that Audible and Magnum Moon are not getting much love on the forum...

People seem to have really jumped on the Justify and Bolt bandwagon but has either of those horses accomplished what Audible has ???

Justify is your best friend if you like another horse. The odds will be superior than without him in the field.

My opinion is the field is very deep this year and as a result there will be horses that don't capture as much attention. If I can look past the sire line of Audible then he is high up on my Derby checklist. It does sound like JV is jumping saddles to Vino Rosso and JC is piloting Audible, however. I'd prefer JV. Vino is another horse only getting light attention after winning the Wood in decent fractions.

I suspect most are waiting on Magnum Moon's Ark performance.

[LoneF]

I usually just play a big superfecta for the derby and actually a horse like Justify is easy for me to figure out what to do with. I think Justify either wins or runs entirely out of the superfecta.

[GMB@BP]

Good Magic has not run any races close to the best Bolt has ?????

The ONLY route race Bolt has ever actually crossed the line first in was early in his 2 year old year when he won the Frontrunner. The only horse I recognized from that race that is still on the derby trail is Solomini.

Since that victory by Bolt let’s look at what Good Magic has done. Crushed Bolt head to head in the BC Juvenile earning champion 2 yr old and now just winning the Bluegrass stakes. I will take more recent BC Juvenile and Bluegrass wins over a Frontrunner Stakes win over Solomini ages ago.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not trying to say Bolt is garbage. I am sure I will end up using Bolt some in the exotics but there is no way I use him on top and to say he has better creditentials than Good Magic is just crazy in my opinion but to be fair Good Magic is currently #1 on my personal Derby list so I am looking at it from the perspective of someone who will most likely heavily be using Good Magic on my derby tickets ...


Using Timeform (I dont use Beyers)

Bolts best 3 races
129 125 123

Good Magic
122 118 115

Now I get it, in a race where Bolt had a terrible trip he was beaten. And I am a fan of Good Magic as I think Brown has been building to a point so I think he can squeeze a few points still....

but its not close in terms of their best races.

I would also point out that Bolt has a 10% trainer and not Chad Brown, not that will change in the next month, but I wonder......

[f2tornado]

Nothing wrong with TimeForm but that's just one set of figures.

Equibase:

BC Juvenile - 109
San Felipe - 118
Bluegrass - 104
Santa Anita Derby 108

Pretty similar.

Brisnet:
BC Juvenile - 105 GM, 98 Bolt
San Felipe - 98 Bolt
FOY- 98 GM

I don't have the Brisnet figs for most recent preps but similar to that point.

Semantics, IMO.

[GMB@BP]

Nothing wrong with TimeForm but that's just one set of figures.

Equibase:

BC Juvenile - 109
San Felipe - 118
Bluegrass - 104
Santa Anita Derby 108

Pretty similar.

Brisnet:
BC Juvenile - 105 GM, 98 Bolt
San Felipe - 98 Bolt
FOY- 98 GM

I don't have the Brisnet figs for most recent preps but similar to that point.

Semantics, IMO.

San Felipe - 98 Bolt
FOY- 98 GM

Is that real? They think Bolt/McKinzie ran the same as Good Magic's third in the FOY?

I would run from betting using those figures.

[LoneF]

I was actually going to bring that up about theiir trainers. I have much more faith in Chad Brown than Mick Ruis to have their horses ready for their top performance come derby day.

Mick Ruis look shell shocked in the interview after the Santa Anita Derby. They asked him right before the race if he thought the San Felipe took too much out of Bolt and he confidently said no. Post race interview he is stammering around sounding like he is grasping at straws and saying in the back of his mind he felt pre race that Bolt was not at his best. He didn’t sound like he really knew what the hell was going on , and he is in charge of getting Bolt ready for the derby lol

Chad Brown on the other hand sounded as cool as the other side of the pillow both pre and post race Bluegrass.

[f2tornado]

San Felipe - 98 Bolt
FOY- 98 GM

Is that real? They think Bolt/McKinzie ran the same as Good Magic's third in the FOY?

I would run from betting using those figures.

I'm not arguing with you; I'm merely posting the published figures. I was mildly scoffed in one of the threads for questioning them as you do here. There is nothing wrong with healthy figure skepticism. I'm inclined to agree Bolt's San Felipe was better than Good Magic's FOY.

[Immortal6]

I think we might need to start a new thread to actually discuss the Arkansas Derby :pound: but here is the list of starters according to Horse Racing Nation.

Solomini (Baffert)
Magnum Moon (Pletcher)
Quip (Brisset)
Combatant (Asmussen)
Title Ready (Asmussen)
Tenfold (Asmussen)
Beautiful Shot (Desormeaux)
Dream Baby Dream (Asmussen)

There's no way this is correct is there? They'd allow Asmussen 4 entries??

[Afleet]

If Bolt is 9/1 in the Derby I will be going all in, he is easily the second best horse unless Magnum Moon pops this week.

Vino Rosso is not much horse, and while i respect Good Magic he has not run near Bolt best races.

I with you on Bolt and w/JJ changing mounts this could be viewed as a negative in handicappers minds

[PoloUK6108]

I was actually going to bring that up about theiir trainers. I have much more faith in Chad Brown than Mick Ruis to have their horses ready for their top performance come derby day.

Mick Ruis look shell shocked in the interview after the Santa Anita Derby. They asked him right before the race if he thought the San Felipe took too much out of Bolt and he confidently said no. Post race interview he is stammering around sounding like he is grasping at straws and saying in the back of his mind he felt pre race that Bolt was not at his best. He didn’t sound like he really knew what the hell was going on , and he is in charge of getting Bolt ready for the derby lol

Chad Brown on the other hand sounded as cool as the other side of the pillow both pre and post race Bluegrass.


I'm with Chad! I think this guy is really good at learning from mistakes and making adjustments. He's figuring out the dirt very quickly. Practical Joke was the learning curve, excited for this year. Looks like it's all going as planned.

[Afleet]

I think we might need to start a new thread to actually discuss the Arkansas Derby :pound: but here is the list of starters according to Horse Racing Nation.

Solomini (Baffert)
Magnum Moon (Pletcher)
Quip (Brisset)
Combatant (Asmussen)
Title Ready (Asmussen)
Tenfold (Asmussen)
Beautiful Shot (Desormeaux)
Dream Baby Dream (Asmussen)

There's no way this is correct is there? They'd allow Asmussen 4 entries??

I'm looking for a big effort out of Solomini. The favorites should be very hard to beat

[clicknow]

Chad Brown on the other hand sounded as cool as the other side of the pillow both pre and post race Bluegrass.


So in other words, you think a "smooth talker" is likely to be more successful?

hundreds of years of salesmanship studied by marketers to make people "buy stuff" .... and you are their perfect mark.

:)

most trainers like horses better than people, that's why they're with horses all day. *Public speaking* isn't exactly a skill they consider essential, I'm sure.

Not everyone is cut out to be a "media darling" (thank god)

[jay68802]

Think there is only one option here, Mangnum Moon. With the connections of Quip running away from a tougher field, tells me that they are a little worried about what they have.

[GMB@BP]

I with you on Bolt and w/JJ changing mounts this could be viewed as a negative in handicappers minds

Sounds like a good business decision to me, but it could be he thinks the other horse is better, guess we will find out. I have seen riders make the wrong choice before, and trust me, its painful after the fact.

[GMB@BP]

I'm looking for a big effort out of Solomini. The favorites should be very hard to beat

I dont like this horse at all.

Dusted by Bolt, dusted by Good Magic, dusted by Magnum Moon. He seems a cut below his generation.

Also, they planned on sending him to the Wood, the weakest Derby prep, and only rerouted here when Justify went in the SA Derby. Just feels like they are not sure he is good enough and he is going to be second choice.

[LoneF]

The trainers explanation for Quip changing plans at the last minute was because the Arkansas Derby is Grade 1 and the Bluegrass was a Grade 2 and they thought a Grade 1 would look better on his resume.

They knew what each race was graded from the start so if wanting the Grade 1 win is the reason than why not go with the Arkansas Derby from the beginning ... Its obvious they weren’t sure they could be Justify. He scratches out and here comes Quip ....

In my opinion they would have been better off with Magnum Moon scratching out. He will be tougher to beat than Justify. With that being said I think Quip runs second.

[Afleet]

I dont like this horse at all.

Dusted by Bolt, dusted by Good Magic, dusted by Magnum Moon. He seems a cut below his generation.

Also, they planned on sending him to the Wood, the weakest Derby prep, and only rerouted here when Justify went in the SA Derby. Just feels like they are not sure he is good enough and he is going to be second choice.

you left out he beat Mckenzie who beat Bolt on the square

[f2tornado]

you left out he beat Mckenzie who beat Bolt on the square

And, he did finish ahead of Bolt in the Juvenile. He was only 3 1/2 back in the Rebel after a 3 month layoff and somewhat mediocre trip. If the horse can pull head out of arse and hit the right lead then he can contend for the win in this affair. Moon put up a solid Equibase figure in the Rebel and I could see him regress a little from that performance.

[GMB@BP]

you left out he beat Mckenzie who beat Bolt on the square

yea that was like McKinzies 10th race with a solid foundation if I remember.

[GMB@BP]

https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/solomini-inside-and-dabster-worked-6-furlongs-in-113-60-on-april-8th-2018-at-santa-anita-park/


interesting

[Spalding No!]

https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/solomini-inside-and-dabster-worked-6-furlongs-in-113-60-on-april-8th-2018-at-santa-anita-park/


interesting

Judging by the composition of the older horse division in CA, Dabster has dead aim on the Californian-Gold Cup double. He might have been unbeaten save for an ill-advised gun to the lead by Flavien Prat in the Malibu (or at the very least wouldn't have been fried into oblivion).

Though there is no shortage of quality, these Curlin colts don't seem to be particularly sturdy. Dabster himself disappeared rather quickly early on last year. His races are now pretty well spaced since the comeback on Breeder's Cup day.

[Afleet]

Dabster looks like he dwarfs Solomini. Exercise rider got him to change leads

[boys at tosconova]

San Felipe - 98 Bolt
FOY- 98 GM

Is that real? They think Bolt/McKinzie ran the same as Good Magic's third in the FOY?

I would run far away from betting using those figures.


fyp...and exactly...