Lemon Drop Husker
04-07-2018, 11:14 AM
Keeneland kicks off their spring meet today with a solid and deep card amid some cold temperatures and even snow early in the day.
While the Blue Grass Stakes is top choice as race of the day, the G1 Madison isn't too far behind with its big and solid field with some of the best Fillies and Mares in all the land.
:1: Sailor's Valentine: Her return on March 4th in an Optional Claiming $50K race was less than enthusing as she finished a beaten 3rd as the near odds on choice. Prior to that she was last seen at the Kentucky Oaks last May as she fell well short of her peers that day. She looks to be training well, and if you are a firm believer in her Ashland last year, then you'll get an awfully nice price. Tough for me to see her hitting the board in here.
:2: Lewis Bay: This hard-knocking 5YO mare has ran against some of the very best of her generation and fared quite well being a multiple graded stakes winner. Rarely runs a bad race, but 7F is not her best distance with her specialty being a front-running router. Tough to dismiss in horizontals and exotics, but I'll look to beat this very likely favorite.
:3: Salty: A very apt name as she is as 'salty' as they come hitting the board in 8 of 9 lifetime starts. Somewhat lightly raced, this will be her 2nd as a 4YO. While 7F may not be her premium distance, she did romp in her maiden victory as this distance. She gets a solid pace in front of her, she is very dangerous and has to be considered a solid contender. Backers have to like that Abel Tasman and Elate are not in the field.
:4: Ms Locust Point: If she can bring the Laurel track with her, she may well be the favorite. This front-running sprinter will likely find the class of this field a tad bit tougher than what she has seen in her romps in Maryland. However, if she can get loose on the lead, she can be extremely dangerous. Just don't see her getting an easy lead in here today, and should add to what looks like a hot pace.
:5: Tequilita: After her G2 Forward Gal win at Gulfstream last February, it looked like she may well be a burgeoning 3YO star. Five races later and that has hardly come to fruition. Her last 3 races have been at the venerable 7F distance, so her connections look to believe they have found her place. She likely needed this near 6 month layoff, and has fired fresh before. She'll be a price, and she'll likely get a solid pace in front of her to run into. An interesting entry at a likely long price.
:6: Teresa Z: Comes in off a long layoff after getting her brains beat in running in the G1 Parx Cotillion. Likely a bit short of these, but could fill out bottom end exotics at a monster price as she could pass a lot of tiring horses late.
:7: Berned: She'll be coming from a very possible dead last, and if right, could lap the entire field. This bomber has settled in at the 7F distance and enters her 2nd race as a dangerous and expensive 4YO. A very interesting longshot if a pace meltdown occurs.
:8: Miss Sunset: One of the pace factors that looks like 7F may well be her top end distance. They have little choice but to send this one and see if she can simply outgun the rest. Hard for me to like with this post and likely short odds.
:9: Natural Wonder: A lightly raced 6YO that seems inadequately out of place in here. Would be a massive surprise and simply unplayable at any odds.
:10: Ami's Mesa: She ran a monster in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint only to come up a disheartening whisker short. :pout: Good news is Bar of Gold isn't in the race, and she will likely get a solid pace in front of her. A very dangerous entry that likes to win.
:11: American Gal: Arguably the most talented filly in the field. This first timer at 4 years old has won on the front end and from well off the pace. 7F looks to hit her right between the eyes, and the ML of 4/1 for this lightly raced filly tells the tale. Her last 2 races were out of the park fantastic as she dominated the New York circuit in her only 2 starts last year. Might not get the 4/1 here, but even at 3/1 she looks playable and a must include on almost any ticket IMO.
:12: Finley'sluckycharm: Best race of her career may well have been here last October. Unfortunately, her last 2 races leave a lot to be desired. As a 5YO mare, she may be 'turning' into the often disinterested sort as she gets older. With 9 career wins and 12 of 14 Exacta finishes, she is tough to dismiss, but I have to exclude based on her recent form.
:13: Mines and Magic: She always seems to give an honest effort, but seems short of many in here. Could round out some bottom end exotics with a good trip, but this post looks to be way too difficult for her to overcome and be competitive against these.
Gonna look to formulate some tickets around the :7: along with the :10::11:. Should be a fantastic race.
While the Blue Grass Stakes is top choice as race of the day, the G1 Madison isn't too far behind with its big and solid field with some of the best Fillies and Mares in all the land.
:1: Sailor's Valentine: Her return on March 4th in an Optional Claiming $50K race was less than enthusing as she finished a beaten 3rd as the near odds on choice. Prior to that she was last seen at the Kentucky Oaks last May as she fell well short of her peers that day. She looks to be training well, and if you are a firm believer in her Ashland last year, then you'll get an awfully nice price. Tough for me to see her hitting the board in here.
:2: Lewis Bay: This hard-knocking 5YO mare has ran against some of the very best of her generation and fared quite well being a multiple graded stakes winner. Rarely runs a bad race, but 7F is not her best distance with her specialty being a front-running router. Tough to dismiss in horizontals and exotics, but I'll look to beat this very likely favorite.
:3: Salty: A very apt name as she is as 'salty' as they come hitting the board in 8 of 9 lifetime starts. Somewhat lightly raced, this will be her 2nd as a 4YO. While 7F may not be her premium distance, she did romp in her maiden victory as this distance. She gets a solid pace in front of her, she is very dangerous and has to be considered a solid contender. Backers have to like that Abel Tasman and Elate are not in the field.
:4: Ms Locust Point: If she can bring the Laurel track with her, she may well be the favorite. This front-running sprinter will likely find the class of this field a tad bit tougher than what she has seen in her romps in Maryland. However, if she can get loose on the lead, she can be extremely dangerous. Just don't see her getting an easy lead in here today, and should add to what looks like a hot pace.
:5: Tequilita: After her G2 Forward Gal win at Gulfstream last February, it looked like she may well be a burgeoning 3YO star. Five races later and that has hardly come to fruition. Her last 3 races have been at the venerable 7F distance, so her connections look to believe they have found her place. She likely needed this near 6 month layoff, and has fired fresh before. She'll be a price, and she'll likely get a solid pace in front of her to run into. An interesting entry at a likely long price.
:6: Teresa Z: Comes in off a long layoff after getting her brains beat in running in the G1 Parx Cotillion. Likely a bit short of these, but could fill out bottom end exotics at a monster price as she could pass a lot of tiring horses late.
:7: Berned: She'll be coming from a very possible dead last, and if right, could lap the entire field. This bomber has settled in at the 7F distance and enters her 2nd race as a dangerous and expensive 4YO. A very interesting longshot if a pace meltdown occurs.
:8: Miss Sunset: One of the pace factors that looks like 7F may well be her top end distance. They have little choice but to send this one and see if she can simply outgun the rest. Hard for me to like with this post and likely short odds.
:9: Natural Wonder: A lightly raced 6YO that seems inadequately out of place in here. Would be a massive surprise and simply unplayable at any odds.
:10: Ami's Mesa: She ran a monster in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint only to come up a disheartening whisker short. :pout: Good news is Bar of Gold isn't in the race, and she will likely get a solid pace in front of her. A very dangerous entry that likes to win.
:11: American Gal: Arguably the most talented filly in the field. This first timer at 4 years old has won on the front end and from well off the pace. 7F looks to hit her right between the eyes, and the ML of 4/1 for this lightly raced filly tells the tale. Her last 2 races were out of the park fantastic as she dominated the New York circuit in her only 2 starts last year. Might not get the 4/1 here, but even at 3/1 she looks playable and a must include on almost any ticket IMO.
:12: Finley'sluckycharm: Best race of her career may well have been here last October. Unfortunately, her last 2 races leave a lot to be desired. As a 5YO mare, she may be 'turning' into the often disinterested sort as she gets older. With 9 career wins and 12 of 14 Exacta finishes, she is tough to dismiss, but I have to exclude based on her recent form.
:13: Mines and Magic: She always seems to give an honest effort, but seems short of many in here. Could round out some bottom end exotics with a good trip, but this post looks to be way too difficult for her to overcome and be competitive against these.
Gonna look to formulate some tickets around the :7: along with the :10::11:. Should be a fantastic race.