Is fixed odds betting better than parimutuel?

[whisperlunch]

Why is NJ the only state to do this ? Why do horseman / or tracks not want this type of wagering?

[Rutgers]

For most players, paramutuel is better. For long-term winning players, fixed-odds wagering may offer some advantages. Some horsemen/tracks are opposed because they get a larger percentage of the handle with paramutuel wagering.

NJ has it because Betfair (thru TVG) is the exclusive mandated ADW in NJ, and lobbied for it.

[Dave Schwartz]

Why is NJ the only state to do this ? Why do horseman / or tracks not want this type of wagering?

Because exotics are difficult beyond a couple of combinations in an exchange and tracks would suddenly find that there would be no trifecta, supers, picks, pick4s, pick6s etc.

[thaskalos]

For anyone with a solid opinion on a race, fixed odds has to be a better option than the paramutuel version of betting that we are currently stuck with. Watching our horse tumble in price during the running of the race as we helplessly look on in disbelief is something that I doubt any knowledgeable horseplayer would ever miss if fixed-odds wagering were somehow implemented as the mainstay in the game.

Can you imagine the public outcry if paramutuel wagering was the operational betting system in sports betting? You bet the Patriots at -7...and an avalanche of late money just before the start of the game changes your bet to a -10 proposition? There would be blood in the streets.

[lamboguy]

legal sports betting will lead to fixed odds wagering. you can offer fixed odds for straight wagers and parimutuel for the combination wagering. a venue could either book the action themselves or sell the right to book the action.

[JerryBoyle]

For most players, paramutuel is better. For long-term winning players, fixed-odds wagering may offer some advantages. Some horsemen/tracks are opposed because they get a larger percentage of the handle with paramutuel wagering.

NJ has it because Betfair (thru TVG) is the exclusive mandated ADW in NJ, and lobbied for it.

I kinda feel as if it's the opposite. First, it's importnat to distinguish between a sports book offering fixed odds and exchange wagering allowing fixed odds. For the casual fan, fixed odds through either seems better as you know immediately what price you're getting. It's easier to understand than trying to describe how PM pools work, though explaining how to bet on an exchange might be tricky.

For large bettors with an informed opinion who are good at modeling, PM pools seem better to me as compared to a sports book. Once a sports books knows they're a sharp, their wagers will be severely limited. I'd be interesting to hear the thoughts on this by some of the large teams, but my suspicion is that if I were running a team, I'd prefer PM pools. Also, as Dave has said, I can't see how one can offer fixed odds for exotics through either a sports book or exchange

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Only thing I know is that I'm grossly tired of TVG 'explaining' this incredibly easy to understand wagering opportunity that is available to just New Jersey bettors.

[cutchemist42]

I think once sports betting becomes legal, horse racing will have to adopt it or be in a bad spot.

Related article at Bloodhorse that came out.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/226850/regulators-urged-to-make-room-for-betting-innovation

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I think once sports betting becomes legal, horse racing will have to adopt it or be in a bad spot.

Related article at Bloodhorse that came out.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/226850/regulators-urged-to-make-room-for-betting-innovation

Disagree.

Horse bettors are in the game for the action, the highs, and the intellectual side of finding winners.

I can be wrong on 12 of 13 races at Gulfstream, but be right on 1 race and make a profit. If I'm wrong on 12 of 13 NFL games I lose my ass.

[Poindexter]

I kinda feel as if it's the opposite. First, it's importnat to distinguish between a sports book offering fixed odds and exchange wagering allowing fixed odds. For the casual fan, fixed odds through either seems better as you know immediately what price you're getting. It's easier to understand than trying to describe how PM pools work, though explaining how to bet on an exchange might be tricky.

For large bettors with an informed opinion who are good at modeling, PM pools seem better to me as compared to a sports book. Once a sports books knows they're a sharp, their wagers will be severely limited. I'd be interesting to hear the thoughts on this by some of the large teams, but my suspicion is that if I were running a team, I'd prefer PM pools. Also, as Dave has said, I can't see how one can offer fixed odds for exotics through either a sports book or exchange


Why would/should a bookmaker or even Betfair be involved. Why isn't it simply player vs player, the racetrack takes out the takeout, end of story. Why does racing love middlemen? Why should it matter which players win and which lose?

As far as innovation. Once you have the platform you can do a whole lot more than who is going to win the race. Big field like the Kentucky Derby, you can break it into 5 stables(which appear to have a fairly equal chance of winning. Give the player a chance to determine which stable the winner of the race comes out of. Offer another option(points). Give 7 points for 1st , 5 points for 2nd, 3 points for 3rd and 2 points for 4th and 1 point for 5th. Which stable will have the most points(tie goes to highest finisher).....Some races it will no big deal, others it will feel like easy money because 3 of my 4 top choices happen to randomly be in one stable. On the Breeders up you can have pick 4's, pick 5's, pick 6's with stable instead of just individual horses. I am sure there are many better ideas than these if anyone bothers to try to implement anything.

As far as exchange betting for the masses, it will be an expensive learning curve for them. There are plenty of sharp folks hanging out looking to take advantage of any weak opinion. These same guys that are knocking down
4-1 shots to 9/5 on the last tick and watching them win like 3/5 shots are going to be around these boards taking 7/2 and 3-1 and 5/2 all the way down. For the skilled player it would make the game much better, for the masses it might give them the feeling that they are the biggest sucker in the world and while I would love for exchange betting to be legal everywhere, I am not sure it would actually help the sport. I know eliminating rebates would be much more beneficial to the sport (as far as long term growth is concerned) than a betting exchange would be.

[AltonKelsey]

Disagree.

Horse bettors are in the game for the action, the highs, and the intellectual side of finding winners.

I can be wrong on 12 of 13 races at Gulfstream, but be right on 1 race and make a profit. If I'm wrong on 12 of 13 NFL games I lose my ass.

No comparison.

If you picked the wrong horse in 12 out of 13 match races you'd deserve to lose your ass.

[AltonKelsey]

I would love to have access to exchange wagering for the very obvious and simple reason : ease in laying odds.

You can do it now but its clumsy and prone to last minute odds changes. High takeout also limits opportunity

Betting here in the US is behind the curve.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

No comparison.

If you picked the wrong horse in 12 out of 13 match races you'd deserve to lose your ass.

Therein lies the beauty of horse racing.

There are at least 6 or more running every 20 minutes as opposed to 2 supposedly even matched teams. :cool:

[whisperlunch]

I never thought of the exotic wagers issue. So in other countries you can’t bet tri’s and supers? Hmmmm ? I just feel what little I know -fixed odds seems like a better option for the players but track management & horseman must hate to give the player a better deal.

[green80]

with exchange betting you may have trouble getting someone on the other side, if you want to bet large on a long odds horse. From my experience you will have someone to match you up to a certain amount and as the odds get longer the for side.

While the exchange idea is good in theory, actually getting the money matched at better than paramutual odds is difficult at larger amount on all but the favorites

[whisperlunch]

Green what kind of amounts do you mean?

[Dave Schwartz]

I never thought of the exotic wagers issue. So in other countries you can’t bet tri’s and supers? Hmmmm ? I just feel what little I know -fixed odds seems like a better option for the players but track management & horseman must hate to give the player a better deal.

The issue is that there are simply too many combinations.

Imagine if you want to key 2 horses over 6 others in an exacta. You have to make an offer on 12 different tickets. Aside from the difficulty of making the offers, maybe your bets are accepted on only 7 of them.

Now, consider a trifecta or superfecta ticket that could have several hundred combinations.

In order for this to be widely accepted, a solution must be found to the exotics issue... or else Americans must give up their love of exotics and go back to just picking wps.

[AltonKelsey]

I think we're overlooking the obvious.

Fixed odds + parimutuel can easily co exist.

The difficulty of exotics hasn't hindered Betfair or any other bookmaker for centuries.

[green80]

Green what kind of amounts do you mean?
couple a hundred up

[JerryBoyle]

Why would/should a bookmaker or even Betfair be involved. Why isn't it simply player vs player, the racetrack takes out the takeout, end of story. Why does racing love middlemen? Why should it matter which players win and which lose?

As far as innovation. Once you have the platform you can do a whole lot more than who is going to win the race. Big field like the Kentucky Derby, you can break it into 5 stables(which appear to have a fairly equal chance of winning. Give the player a chance to determine which stable the winner of the race comes out of. Offer another option(points). Give 7 points for 1st , 5 points for 2nd, 3 points for 3rd and 2 points for 4th and 1 point for 5th. Which stable will have the most points(tie goes to highest finisher).....Some races it will no big deal, others it will feel like easy money because 3 of my 4 top choices happen to randomly be in one stable. On the Breeders up you can have pick 4's, pick 5's, pick 6's with stable instead of just individual horses. I am sure there are many better ideas than these if anyone bothers to try to implement anything.

As far as exchange betting for the masses, it will be an expensive learning curve for them. There are plenty of sharp folks hanging out looking to take advantage of any weak opinion. These same guys that are knocking down
4-1 shots to 9/5 on the last tick and watching them win like 3/5 shots are going to be around these boards taking 7/2 and 3-1 and 5/2 all the way down. For the skilled player it would make the game much better, for the masses it might give them the feeling that they are the biggest sucker in the world and while I would love for exchange betting to be legal everywhere, I am not sure it would actually help the sport. I know eliminating rebates would be much more beneficial to the sport (as far as long term growth is concerned) than a betting exchange would be.

What your'e describing is pari mutuel wagering and also sort of exchange wagering. Exchanges are useful for finding the player with whom you should be matched. But I'm not saying I favor one over the other. In fact, I like what someone else said - providing both exchange and pari mutuel and forget bookies altogether

[biggestal99]

I would love to have access to exchange wagering for the very obvious and simple reason : ease in laying odds.

You can do it now but its clumsy and prone to last minute odds changes. High takeout also limits opportunity

Betting here in the US is behind the curve.

Yes Laying odds for losing horses is easy and profitable.

I do it all the time.

The X is 21st century betting, PM 20th century.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Only thing I know is that I'm grossly tired of TVG 'explaining' this incredibly easy to understand wagering opportunity that is available to just New Jersey bettors.

they are pushing it because it is a new revenue stream thats extremely profitable to Betfair if it ever became available nationwide.

They are taking a loss on it right now.

its all about the benjamins to TVG/Betfair.

makes tons of money on the X in the UK on horseracing/Sports betting.

thats why the push.

Allan

[biggestal99]

I think we're overlooking the obvious.

Fixed odds + parimutuel can easily co exist.

The difficulty of exotics hasn't hindered Betfair or any other bookmaker for centuries.

I would love to see the handle figures for Jersey Betfair exchange and 4NJbets for 2015, 2016, 2017 to see if the exchange drained any of the PM handle.

Allan

[biggestal99]

couple a hundred up

On the uk races 300 would be matched quite easily on all but the longest shots.

In us races there is less liquidity, I would say 50 on a mid priced long shot is the max.

allan

[biggestal99]

On the uk races 300 would be matched quite easily on all but the longest shots.

In us races there is less liquidity, I would say 50 on a mid priced long shot is the max.

allan

My strategy if I want a large wager on a mid priced long shot is to feed the money in slowly starting when the round hits 103 or so. Very slowly.

Can’t let the bots know that you are betting otherwise they will force the price down.

Allan

[horses4courses]

track management & horseman must hate to give the player a better deal.

It sure feels like that, but the bottom line is that they won't
offer anything to the player that won't make them money.

Whether, or not, it's a better deal for the player is of no consequence.

I grew up on race wagering where I had a choice on whether
to bet a tote odds, or fixed odds with a bookmaker.
99% of the time, I bet with the bookmaker on a price I could lock in.
The only time I might bet on the tote was when I liked a long shot.
Those horses often paid higher odds on the tote, especially in big fields.

That was over 30 years ago.
It was nice to have a choice.

[Tom]

For anyone with a solid opinion on a race, fixed odds has to be a better option than the paramutuel version of betting that we are currently stuck with. Watching our horse tumble in price during the running of the race as we helplessly look on in disbelief is something that I doubt any knowledgeable horseplayer would ever miss if fixed-odds wagering were somehow implemented as the mainstay in the game.

Can you imagine the public outcry if paramutuel wagering was the operational betting system in sports betting? You bet the Patriots at -7...and an avalanche of late money just before the start of the game changes your bet to a -10 proposition? There would be blood in the streets.

Or the line drops after they score the first TD?
Then rise when they miss the PAT?

[Tom]

My strategy if I want a large wager on a mid priced long shot is to feed the money in slowly starting when the round hits 103 or so. Very slowly.

Can’t let the bots know that you are betting otherwise they will force the price down.

Allan

They can actually detect my $2??? Wow.
:lol:

[Seabiscuit@AR]

I would rank the various betting scenarios as follows

1. Fixed odds betting with regulated bookies who tolerate winning players - this is the best scenario for players. You know your odds before the jump, a player can win or lose, the racing on track can be kept reasonably honest with jockeys and trainers trying to win races most of the time

2. Tote betting without rebates - this is your 2nd best scenario. Not as good as scenario 1 with fixed odds as you don't know your odds before the jump. Also totes historically have had high takeout rates

3. Fixed odds exchange betting - this is your 3rd best scenario. Exchange betting has some positives with the ability to back and lay. However it does have a negative and that is allowing absolutely anyone to lay eats away at the integrity of your races over time. 95% of people will play fair with the ability to lay. However the other 5% will include gangsters and other organised crime members who will see a chance to make easy money by buying off jockeys and trainers to lose races. And once jockeys and trainers learn that they can profit from losing it does hurt your racing as the years go by

4. Tote betting with rebates - a poor set up for betting. A very small number of players get huge rebates and they make a killing but most other players cannot win

5. Fixed odds betting with regulated bookies who do not tolerate winning players - pointless betting in this scenario as the bookies will close down your account if they think a player has any clue at all. They will even close down your account if you are losing if you are not losing fast enough for their liking. The big UK & Irish bookies generally don't tolerate winners

The other scenario is betting with unregulated bookies. That will vary widely based on whether or not you will get paid

[elhelmete]

I think we're overlooking the obvious.

Fixed odds + parimutuel can easily co exist.

The difficulty of exotics hasn't hindered Betfair or any other bookmaker for centuries.

When I was working in Australia the TABs offered fixed odds OR PM up to about 10 minutes before post, and parimutuel only after that.

[whisperlunch]

This is a fascinating topic. If I understand fixed betting you can only bet around 300 on a long shot? What do they then do after 300 decline the bet or lower the odds and let you bet again at a much lower price?

So obviously in parimutuel the track takes what 25% average out of each buck and splits it 3 ways with state , horseman, and track. But fixed odds how do they get the money to operate???

[biggestal99]

They can actually detect my $2??? Wow.
:lol:

Yes, that’s what happens. The exchange bots search every race 24/7.

As soon as the see my wager the come aboard and either jump my offer or offer the same odds. Happens all the time.

If Allan makes money, the bots make money.

Allan