blue grass stakes not presented by yum brands

[boys at tosconova]

2018 Blue Grass Stakes Odds & Entries

Race 10 on Keeneland's Saturday card with a Post Time of 6:23 PM

Entry Horse ML Odds Jockey Trainer

1 Zing Zang 30-1 Shaun Bridgmohan Steve Asmussen
2 Sporting Chance 10-1 Luis Saez D. Wayne Lukas
3 California Night 30-1 Tyler Gaffalione Mike Maker
4 Kanthaka 10-1 Julien Leparoux Jerry Hollendorfer
5 Quip 6-1 Florent Geroux Rodolphe Brisset
6 Marconi 15-1 Ryan Moore Todd Pletcher
7 Blended Citizen 15-1 Kyle Frey Doug O'Neill
8 Gotta Go 30-1 Ian Wilkes Chris Landeros
9 Tiz Mischief 30-1 Corey Lanerie Dale Romans
10 Free Drop Billy 5-1 Irad Ortiz Jr. Dale Romans
11 Good Magic 2-1 Jose Ortiz Chad Brown
12 Flameaway 6-1 Jose Lezcano Mark Casse
13 Machismo 20-1 Jake Radosevich Anthony Quartarolo
14 Arawak 30-1 Fernando de la Cruz Doug O'Neill

[boys at tosconova]

my initial thoughts after a cursory glance at the program

the 10 and 11 have to be on the engine early from out there..the good news is it looks like clear sailing until you reach the 5.. the bad news is these horses will be short priced.

i have no clue what the 13 and 14 are going to do at the start of the race. either of these runners are capable of gunning, and from what i've read that's the plan w/ the 14

i would really like to see some type of duel here, but i don't know if that will happen. i guess the maybe the 2 or 3 can add to a potentially fast pace, but the 3 might be too cheap and i just can't see the 2 arguing the issue that much when he should be in decent position just off of the pace. dunno wut the 4 will do. no mcNugget or bolt cola in here

what if the 2/3/4/5 all leave a lil hard for positioning? the outside horses get the big rutro imo. do you really think good magic is going to make multiple moves and win if he's forced into it after leaving the gate?

i plan to watch the foy replay for more info

[boys at tosconova]

i don't think there's any chance they'll push quip hard here already having 50 points

i would be shocked if he doesn't yield to the outside horses and should be looking for a soft leave.

[lamboguy]

i don't think there's any chance they'll push quip hard here already having 50 points

i would be shocked if he doesn't yield to the outside horses and should be looking for a soft leave.
Jeepers creepers! i loved that horse, now you got me thinking! (something i'm not to good at these days)

[f2tornado]

i don't think there's any chance they'll push quip hard here already having 50 points

i would be shocked if he doesn't yield to the outside horses and should be looking for a soft leave.

He might not have to be pushed hard. Ideal post for his style and, if last year is any guide, the track services front runners well.

[jay68802]

Bluegrass Stakes

:1: Zing Zang 30-1 Morning line says it all. Looks to be a solid Allowance runner. Gets the short way around and needs a complete breakdown. Out

:2: Sporting Chance 10-1 Not much depth to the running style, has to very close to the pace. Has two choices and neither one is good. Get on the pace and hope not to be run down, or settle and be in a position that has proven he does not like to be in. Out.

:3: California Night 30-1 Has one chance and that is wire to wire. Can go fast enough early to be in the lead, but can't finish fast enough. Out.

:4: Kanthaka 10-1 Finished 6 behind a horse that would be favored heavily here. And that was the first time at a route. Needs a little trip help somewhere here but has a outside chance. Contender.

:5: Quip 6-1 Solid in last start and gets close to the same trip here. The pace might be faster, and might find himself between horses. Last speed figure says he is a contender, will have to prove it is not a fluke. Pass.

:6: Marconi 15-1 Improving, but has shown at this level to be a chaser. Even with a solid trainer, can't endorse. Out.

:7: Blended Citizen 15-1 Hate horses like this. Shows speed figures that can win, but on a different surface. Play the %'s here and use underneath.

:8: Gotta Go 30-1 Should be named Keeps Going. Steady eddy would be a suprise. Out.

:9: Tiz Mischief 30-1 Slow early, and to slow late. Out.

:10: Free Drop Billy 5-1 4 have been at the reins on this one. Tells me the connections believe in him. Makes me a little wary. Not a fan of this one and do not know why. Use underneath.

:11: Good Magic 2-1 1 win in 4 starts is a concern at the price. Contender.

:12: Flameaway 6-1 Forgive the last for lack of pace. Has the right running style and is the pick.

:13: Machismo 20-1 Like this one, did not regress much when stretched out in last. Needs some trip help but is outside and can make something happen. Contender.

:14: Arawak 30-1 Pipe dream. Think the last race was a fluke. Out.

[Robert Fischer]

:1: Zing Zang hopes to suck-up and get a pace collapse. Doesn't seem good enough

:2: Sporting Chance I thought he ran OK last time. If he gets a good trip, he could hit the board.

:3: California Night Easy trips. Some unknown, but I'm tossing.

:4: Kanthaka Has had really good trips and yet to prove he can make his own race. Out of my exacta, but you can't discount from 3rd or 4th.

:5: Quip Not familiar with this guy. Will need to watch races / handicap.

:6: Marconi Ran well against the grain last time. I'm not a fan, but he looks like he will hit the board underneath.

:7: Blended Citizen Tossing here.

:8: Gotta Go do not like

:9: Tiz Mischief didn't catch my eye

:10: Free Drop Billy can't toss from underneath, but I don't want him on top, and he's going to be an underlay everywhere.

:11: Good Magic Ran fine last time. Was hoping for a better betting situation, but this is a good prep/points situation for the horse. Key.

:12: Flameaway Have to re-watch. I like the connections for a board spot.

:13: Machismo Love his last race. Fair trip and he's a win contender. I forget how close the 1st turn is to the starting gate. I hope the trainer isn't overzealous about being on the pace. Patience and trip is key.

:14: Arawak not good enough

[f2tornado]

:1: Zing Zang Needs a massive pace collapse and even then I just can't see him improving enough after his lastfour very consistent but middling starts.

:2: Sporting Chance His Rebel pace parameters are close to par for this race. I'll give him a sporting chance to hit bottom of gimmicks.

:3: California Night Has Mr. P on top and sometimes those are late bloomers. Nothing really wrong with the pedigree but he's no Irap. Gimmicks bomber if the speed holds.

:4: Kanthaka Another Mr. P and strong tail female Court Dress. Dosage of 5.67 suggests 9F is a stretch. Could pick up a minor share again but this field is deeper than last.

:5: Quip Mr. P on top and Chit Chat in tail female. He gets one professional dosage point with his 3.00 DI. 9F should not be asking too much He might have more pace pressure early this time but obtained respectable figure in Tampa and had nice recent work at the track. Further, he previously won on the surface was excellent rider. Track has played to his style since conversation to dirt. Strong contender.

:6: Marconi FOY looks better on paper than it did in person. This horse has 30 dosage points including two solid. DI 2.75, CD 0.67. Artless is strong tail female. This one won't beat you with speed but could very well out grind the competition as distance increases. This would be a good pick if there was a Belmont future pool. Passing from the win pool but likely in my gimmicks. Note: elite turf rider Ryan Moore who is suddenly enjoying success on the dirt gets the mount.

:7: Blended Citizen I like Mr. P. Horse had done well at distance but it's a dice roll for the surface. If he handles it reasonable well then could be flying late. Respect, but am inclined to use outside the win pool.

:8: Gotta Go This horse has a sprinter pedigree. If he hits the board then I'll be tearing up all my tickets.

:9: Tiz Mischief Has a route win over the surface. Dosage is weak but does have Tribonyx in tail female. Got spanked by Audible in Holy Bull. Could hit bottom of super with a little pace help.

:10: Free Drop Billy If you think Audible is that good then this guy isn't far behind. Addition of Irad Ortiz is a big plus. Has a win over the surface. Dosage line looks nice for the distance. No reason this guy cannot contend to at least be in the picture. Not sure how to play him but perhaps will utilize middle and bottom of gimmicks.

:11: Good Magic I can forgive the FOY. That performance is par for Bluegrass winner. Chad Brown is a master of the 2nd and 3rd from the layoff. Horse is working well. Post is a concern for his style. Win contender and must use in the gimmicks. I'll play him but maybe not too hard.

:12: Flameaway One of those horses I don't really like but always runs a good race. 9F might be a stretch for this one but he has shown enough late foot to pass anything tiring in the stretch. Will consider where to play in the gimmicks but won't be on top.

:13: Machismo Likely overmatched here but dosage profile suggests 9F is not too tall a task. Post hurts given style. Maybe worth using to add value on bottom of super.

:14: Arawak Post is a killer. Maybe the shades will allow him to lay back. Flattened last time and expect the same only worse this time. Dosage of 7.00 is not enticing for distance. Toss.

[Immortal6]

Haven't looked at pps for the race yet but knowing the entries and their running styles this is a tough race to handicap, but I'll go with two closers Kanthaka and Blended Citizen on top. Kanthaka got a bad start in his first route try so he can be forgiven, and BC made a very impressive move turning for home in the Spiral with a fast final fraction.

After using these two on top it's a bit of a crapshoot. Honestly think that the :3::8::9: are the only 3 horses not contending for a top 3 finish. Will look to toss Good Magic from the win/place spots after his last performance.

:4::7: / :4::5::7::10::12: / :2::4::5::7::10::11::12::13:

$24 tri

[boys at tosconova]

some very good points keep them coming.

i will give my toughts on the horses in a bit. followed by potential race scenarios and outcomes

[boys at tosconova]

:1: Zing Zang - i don't even think you can count the one hole as post relief for this type of horse. from what i've read he need clear sailing and not have horses around him. the rail might be the worst spot for him. he did only lose to the 2 by <2L in what was sporting chances first start in five months. looks like the best case would be a 4/5th place finish in a dream scenario fast pace and parting of the red sea

:2:Sporting Chance - 3rd off the bench. obv could improve, but to be honest the rebel was pretty dissapointing, especially since he was supoose to be better there. he did beat free drop billy in a big G1 sprint race at toga as a 2yr old. so that should/might be in your mind as free drop has the feel of a horse that will have smart money on him

:3: California Night - looks like cheap speed that might not even translate into speed vs these. that doesn't mean he won't argue early and potentially mess up the good horses, it means he might not be able to. dream scenario would to be in an up close position in slow times and hang on for a racing check. it;s obv he could get better, but it just doesn't seem like it will be enough if he does.

:4: Kanthaka - horse has to take some money just finishing 3rd to both mc and bolt. and routes for only the 2nd time. haven't watched film on his last two graded races yet, but it does look like he will be forwardly placed to avoid trouble here. should be a moderately priced horse that could easily figure in here if he's goot enough.

:5: Quip -horses like this and promise fufilled are great to have when then win at good odds. speed/tact horses are easy to come up with and handicap for the most part. have to like the effort four months off the bench even on a quirky TB track. can he get better, maybe. but the horse was never really well meant ever but continues to outrun what people think he's capable of. this is going to be the 1st race people take notice. and to be honest, the 144 he ran in the TB doesn't want to make me throw my money hand over hand on him on what looks to be a short price.

he does have a great running style, and may continue to get better, as he did run 144 as a 2 yr old as well. but he does already have enough points for the derby, what good would it be form to push here? granted i did say the same thing about PF and didn't think he would be 1st/2nd but nobody could have expected romans and that clown albarodo did to the poor horse creating a pissing match w/ the one. this horse could do many things here

contin....

[boys at tosconova]

:6:Marconi - lightly raced 2million dollar closer frothe pletcher barn, and one of four that came out of the boat race that was the FOY. didn;t really have much of chance there, but it was still a very uneventful, uninspiring race. obv he'll need a pace to run at but it looks easier putting him toward the bottom half here rather than the top being that he's going to be way back. i would only include underneath w/ closers if there's a speed duel. doesn't really seem like a winner, and will be lower than he should

:7: Blended Citizen - looks pretty obv to me the surface change made him better. on that reason alone he should/might have a tough time of it here. he looks like solid closer though and if he takes to the dirt he can easily be around for part of it, but again, if there is no pace and he takes to dirt then what?.."ran evenly for 5th/6th?" high risk, maybe high reward?...especially if he comes in w/ other closers.

:8: Gotta Go- didn;t look like he had much in between horses in the FOY. but i guess the closers can get a pass in that race. but the other 3 looked better he did beat lone sailor and bravazo going a mile at CD @ two. if you throw out his last paceless race and easily ignore the kyG2 troubled trip he merrits some consideration as a closer if there's a pace to run at

:9: Tiz Mischief - free drop beat him by 7L and he lost to flame and quip by 10/11L. he did have a nice close finishing 2nd to enticed and beating promises fufilled in nov. he will no doubt go off at odds higher than he should. you can almost excuse any race that's run @ TB. another horse that will need a fast pace..that makes four in a row

:10: Free Drop Billy - classy horse that's raced everywhere against good horses. no audible in here but his gotham race was somewhat decent imo. he wanted to run early and davis wouldn't let him as they were going quick up front. he raced wide thoughout and in between horses. it was a really good experience for the horse. like the jock switch, and this horse could possibly show further gate speed here as he has the angle to all outside horses and four horses inside him that will drop back.

:11: Good Magic - if he's much better he'll run big here. quite a few strat lines point to it. didn't have much of a shot to win last race nor did they really care if he did. treat is as a good tightener. can't ignore his G1 romp at two beating bolt by almost 6L.

now with the easy part done, how does he do it? well, for starters the horse has to be on the engine early as you have to put the horse in position here and i expect he will be.

you might see a race similar to that of audible in the fla derby. he could possibly float out leave and avoid the speed duel should there be one letting either a combo of the 12/13/14 loop him, or he could just put the petal to the metal and be ridden like he's the best, which is possible, but this could come with dicey results because of it. if by chance he doesn't leave he'll likely be in trouble if he wants to win this race


contin..

[boys at tosconova]

:12: Flameaway - has a 142 @ TB beating catlick boy, and a 2nd to kip in the TB derby where is was cut off at the start and raced diagonally green several times in the race. the horse can be a playa in here. and looks like a playa if he can run in a straight line. what really stinks is that he might do his best racing on the front end, and he might not sniff the front end in here w/o being crispy fried do to the post. the horses 10>14 are a complete wildcard on where they will be when the gate opens.

:13: Machismo - horse was retty solid in the FOY. floated out only to get blindsided and surrounded by horses just after the quarter. he leaves the picture as they turn for home and shakes free only to lose by 2L to good magic finishing 4th. don't know much about the new jock but this post should be murder on the horse as i just don't see him being able to cross over from the 10/11/12 and the horse outside him might be sent on a suicide mission. he could take back and hope for some pace. it's really unfortunate he drew this post as a live longshot


:14: Arawak- didn't the assisstant trainer go on record saying we're gunning even after he got post 14? blinks kind of confirm it as well. horse has some decent races vs lesser but can he run on dirt? doing this also can set up the citizen as well, who only beat him by lil over 1L. also has a decent race early on vs flameaway where it looks like he left from post 13

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Best Blue Grass field I've seen in many a moon. :headbanger:

Arguably the best and deepest Kentucky Derby prep this season, although it may well (and likely) not produce the KD winner.

[Afleet]

:1:Zing Zang carried 118 in the Rebel while Magnum Moon, Solomini, and Combatant carried 115 lbs. Lanerie off is a big plus to me. He will beat at least 1/2 the field. Distance shouldn't be a problem-can't say that for a lot of the others.
2 Sporting Chance not sure what to do w/this one, bottom of tris and supers
:4:Don't think Kanthaka will get the distance.

:5:Quip should get a good trip.

:6:Marconi $2million colt trained by Pletcher who has been winning every other prep it seems like. Bottom of super at best?

:7: generally don't like Proud Citizens' @ 1 1/8
Don't like :8: or :9:

:10: my pick to win it
:11: Good magic should hit the tri but hope he runs out.
:12: hard not to like this one; Scat Daddy's have been looking good this season
:13: like on the bottom only-at best
:14: blinkers on; hung out to dry and would need to improve significantly

[señorclipclop]

$1.50 Tri: :7::11: / :7::11: / :5::6::10::12: ($12)
$1 Tri: :7::11: / :5::6::10::12: / :7::11: ($8)
$.50 Tri: :5::6::10::12: / :7::11: / :7::11: ($4)

[clicknow]

I read thru everybody's thoughts, very good.

I am gonna ex box Marconi, Blended Citizen, Quip and Good Magic.

Flameway got shafted on post 14, don't trust it.

[boys at tosconova]

i think when the gates open you're going to see a mad scramble from the outside horses. and i don't think machismo will be among them. (although u can't rule out comepletely) 10/11/12 and the 14

i think lukas #2 has no choice but to push, and he's been known to blow out horses in these spots. the 4 will try and get position it seems as well. maybe not that hard though. quip seems to have one gear that's go as well, and the lead could be his if he wants

what we don't know is how much effect the 3 and 14 will have on the field early on.

11 has to leave here and this is really the only horse in the race that has the look of winning here. if there is a duel he can still lay off it and win but naming the 2nd/3rd place horses might be really difficult.

the 12 looks like he's in a bad spot. he was also very talented but ran very green last race. how does he not gun as well?

the pace does look contentious...

[boys at tosconova]

the 4 does have the look of a horse that will be in position this race. he also might not be involved in a speed duel should there be one. he seems like a safe key under the 11 from any other horse not the 5and the 12..who is in a really dicey spot.

he just has to get a little better and get the distance. it seems like getting a lil better is within his grasp though

[Michael]

Can the :11: be beat? I'm not sure of that yet.
If he can be beat - My home brew value line:

:4: $ 7/1
:5: $ 6.50/1
:12: $ 6/1

[upthecreek]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/226829/keeneland-officials-plan-for-possible-april-snowstorm

[LoneF]

Flameaway is actually going from post 12 which is not as bad as 14 but still not ideal, although this horse has won on every surface and on several different tracks and with many different jockeys. He has shown the ability to set the pace, stalk and close. He seemingly has encountered about every type of trouble imaginable but never gives up in a race. I won’t say he is the most talented horse but he is probably the most honest and he just always shows up win or lose. He is a hard horse to leave off a ticket ecspecially if your talking about trifectas and superfectas.

Didn’t anyone else find it a real head scratcher that Ryan Moore picked up the mount on Marconi ??? Usually Ryan Moore only makes the trip over if it’s a top international based horse that’s going in a Triple Crown or Breeders Cup race, but to come over to ride a US Based horse in the Bluegrass that’s 15-1 morning line ??? There must be something I am missing ....

The other thing I find odd is that I would think some of the horses that really need to get points would have opted for the Wood over the Bluegrass. It’s a much smaller field, so not only less horses to compete against and less chance of finding trouble, but I think many would argue the Wood is a overall less talented field.

[upthecreek]

https://twitter.com/BetKeeneland/status/981915821701296128

[LoneF]

Quip out of the Bluegrass. No injury issues. Connections just decided to go to the Arkansas Derby instead, since Justify decided to go to the Santa Anita Derby.

All this is according to TVG

[ldiatone]

from Keeneland racing twitter:
8 Fast Facts About The Toyota Blue Grass Field
https://www.keeneland.com/media/news/8-fast-facts-about-toyota-blue-grass-field

[Robert Fischer]

:coffee: Looking at the track configuration, and I think we are in for a pace collapse.
The first turn is closer than I remember, and outside speed will in fact be hung out to dry.

May see a re-run of the 2016 edition. Full field, pace collapse, 1 speed hanging on for a board sport (presumably :2: SPORTING CHANCE).

Unfortunately, that angle does not help matters in a race bottom-heavy with closers.

I'll cut corners and say;

Key :2: SPORTING CHANCE 3rd and 4th
Key :11: GOOD MAGIC 1st and 2nd
Key :6: MARCONI 1st,2nd,3rd,4th
Pray :10:FREE DROP BILLY is out of the tri or super, and that you can get one of the long-shot closers on your ticket :1::4::7::9::13:



https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/226829/keeneland-officials-plan-for-possible-april-snowstorm

wow.
I'm seeing ~3 inches right now for friday-sat
guessing it's OK, but sometimes 3 inches in Kentucky in April is treated as a severe event. Who knows what will happen... :bang:

[f2tornado]

Quip out of the Bluegrass. No injury issues. Connections just decided to go to the Arkansas Derby instead, since Justify decided to go to the Santa Anita Derby.

All this is according to TVG

It's probably got more to with with chasing a G1 but I figured Keeneland plays more to his running style. It certainly simplifies my wagering. Now :11:/whatever or bust.

[boys at tosconova]

Quip out of the Bluegrass. No injury issues. Connections just decided to go to the Arkansas Derby instead, since Justify decided to go to the Santa Anita Derby.

All this is according to TVG

that and the possibility of being crispy fried make it a wise move. but the horse did have a nice post


race dynamic changes here. possible fast pace lessens imo

[boys at tosconova]

race seems to get a lot easier w/o quip. i see thinks a lil more clearly and confidently now.

still think lukas #2 shows speed and fades. woul not be surprised to see the horse lose by ddL because of it. i will use lightly for 3rd on a couple of trips

the closers just seem like they're not good enough or won't reach in here. i guess the 7 might wiggle in this thing so i'll use a lil for 3rd on a couple tickets. still don't even want to call him out for 3rd though. just like the 2.

#4 has to be used by default and potentially further develiopment. same with the 12. . can't use the 13 because of post and being an underlay. it's just a really bad spot for him.


so there you have it...............11/4-10-12...and that's all she wrote. maybe sprinkle the 12 on top as well. but the first numbers i wrote down look hammerable imo

[Michael]

Can the :11: be beat? I'm not sure of that yet.
If he can be beat - My home brew value line:

:4: $ 7/1
:5: $ 6.50/1
:12: $ 6/1

With the 5 scratched. I updated

:2: 7/1
:4: 7/1
:12: 6/1


$1 exacta value line
Keying 11 on top
:2: $31.60
:4: $29.85
:12: $26.00

[jay68802]

$2 Exacta Box: :11::12: / :4::7::11::12::13:

$2 Tri: :12: / :4::7::11::13: / :4::7::11::13:

[boys at tosconova]

With the 5 scratched. I updated

:2: 7/1
:4: 7/1
:12: 6/1


$1 exacta value line
Keying 11 on top
:2: $31.60
:4: $29.85
:12: $26.00

are these actual real time odds or are you making this up? i seriously dont think those exactas will be that high regardless come post time

[clicknow]

How "sloppy" will the Keenland track be?

With Quip out this really impacts my handicapping of the race.

[LoneF]

:15: Another impressive maiden winner trying their luck on the derby trail. Far outside post might not be such a big deal since this one figures to drop back and close. Has only raced on turf, so if the track does come up sloppy than might move this one up.

I really like both the :11: :12: in this race, but I think this horse has a shot to run into the 3rd or 4th spot at what will most likely be monster odds.

[boys at tosconova]

$2 Exacta Box: :11::12: / :4::7::11::12::13:

$2 Tri: :12: / :4::7::11::13: / :4::7::11::13:

i think the 12 is the only horse that might be able to beat the 11. but his post makes me think it will be much harder to do.

How "sloppy" will the Keenland track be?

With Quip out this really impacts my handicapping of the race.

yes, it makes it much easier and you can toss all those chit closers that will never reach imo.

[clicknow]

yes, it makes it much easier and you can toss all those chit closers that will never reach imo.

Understand. :) But I still have the question about just how "wet" "muddy" "whatever" will KEEN track be if 1-3" of snow dust? I have not visited that track so I don't know the answer. Do I need to pull out my mudders sheet or what?
thanks in advance to whoever might answer this.

[LoneF]

I dont think Flameaway will have any problems working a trip out from his outside post. He has plenty of natural speed and from what I hear Jose Lezcano really has a rep for getting them away from the gate and there is not a lot of speed drawn inside of him until you get to the :3: horse who he figured to sit right off of anyways and now with the scratch of Quip he is breaking from the 11 hole, so a little bit more inside.

[Robert Fischer]

PA homework;)assignment: Re-watch 2016 Bluegrass

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gB-jJfHo0fQ


The significance is the full field.

2016 was tough on outside pressers (due to being hung wide).

The pace basically collapsed - but - it's worth noting that the speed-of-speeds :7:LOABAN(white blinkers) was 20/1(he lead into the stretch and held for 4th) (and the odds of the four front runners were '20/1','18/1', '10/1', and '88/1' entering the top of the stretch) and that the odds and ability of the horses were skewed towards the closing contenders like MY MAN SAM(similar but perhaps not as good as GOOD MAGIC), and winner BRODY'S CAUSE(similar, but perhaps better than FREE DROP BILLY).

I always put a '?' on a pace collapse (or conversely, a merry-go-round speed favoring) race when it agrees with the odds.

The clear takeaway is that a full field is tough on outside pressers.
Also, that the 'speed-of-speeds' has an opportunity.

Who does this directly impact?
:2: SPORTING CHANCE - Seems like the 'speed-of-speeds'. Probably relatively better than LAOBAN. How much can he capitalize on this? Does this move him up? I don't consider him a Kentucky Derby contender, but I thought he ran fine last time a little bit wide. I feel like he ran his race, and faced better horses while wider (as opposed to not getting the distance).

:12: FLAMEAWAY - Good enough to save ground out of the gate, but you have to figure the instructions will be to attend the pace. His bread and butter have been near the pace in spite of strong late-pace figures. This means he has to break sharply and clear much of the field to get into a decent path. Otherwise he's toast.

:13: MACHISMO - Similar dilemma to FLAMEAWAY. He really needs to save ground out of the gate, but he broke his maiden wire-to-wire 2back, and then chased the slow paced merry-go-round Fountain of Youth Stakes in vain. I really like this long shot, but that frustrating race + the jock switch suggest that the instructions will involve attending the pace. Could be mission impossible.

[LoneF]

I see the pace shaping up like this ....

:3: guns to the lead with the strategy of going as fast as he can for as long as he can.

:2: :12: sit right off of the leader

I think we all agree the :3: calls it a day somewhere around the far turn, so the question is who gets first run and is leading into the stretch the :2: or :12: ???

Personally I just think the :12: is the better horse of the two and once he gets the lead in the stretch he goes into beast mode. This horse digs really deep and always fights and I just don’t see any horse in this field that will be able to possibly pass him with the exception of the :11: who will be fully cranked or close to it for this race. I look for a stretch duel between the :11: :12: I am not sure how it turns out but I really believe your quinella is a ice cold :11::12:

[f2tornado]

The more I look, the more I like the chalk. The trifecta :11:/:10::12:. If I play the super then will add :6::7::13: underneath. All of these have the best LP figures. There are no true early burners in here.

[Blenheim]

I couldn’t put together a confident handicapping analysis for this one; just don’t see it. Complicating the matter is the 30-degree w/snow showers the morning of and 40-degree 10 mph winds come race time.

Think I’ll pass. There’ll be another race, another time.

A couple observations. I don’t see the expected, two-year-old turning three, speed figure improvement for Good Magic; he looks vulnerable. How many Juvenile Champions have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby? Kanthaka is coming into this one relatively sharp with 47.2 and 1:00.1 works, Leparoux up. At the second call, he might be breezin’ like a lonesome dove. I expect him and Free Drop Billy to have somethin’ to say in this one.

Best of racing luck . . .

[boys at tosconova]

I couldn’t put together a confident handicapping analysis for this one; just don’t see it. Complicating the matter is the 30-degree w/snow showers the morning of and 40-degree 10 mph winds come race time.

Think I’ll pass. There’ll be another race, another time.

A couple observations. I don’t see the expected, two-year-old turning three, speed figure improvement for Good Magic; he looks vulnerable. How many Juvenile Champions have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby? Kanthaka is coming into this one relatively sharp with 47.2 and 1:00.1 works, Leparoux up. At the second call, he might be breezin’ like a lonesome dove. I expect him and Free Drop Billy to have somethin’ to say in this one.

Best of racing luck . . .

you might be able to work out some kind of price w/ the 4-10-11-12 here. i will save w/ a trip box should the 4 or 10 win. but most of my coin will be w/ 11 on top followed by the 12....and i;ll have a couple of dollars w/ the 2 and 7 for third. i'll take my chances leving pletch and the tony quarterolo horse

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:11::12: are the 2 best in here.

:9: Tiz Mischief is really interesting at a price.

:7: goes turf, turf, turf, AW, AW. Complete toss.

[Michael]

are these actual real time odds or are you making this up? i seriously dont think those exactas will be that high regardless come post time

Those are my personal overlay odds. Essentially if you don't think you're getting those odds come post time... that just means "I" think they're poor bets. I only posted them to articulate where I think the wagers should be.

[boys at tosconova]

watching film of zing zang in the rebel the horse was pinched going around the first turn and then was completely shut off and checked in the stretch where he was picking up steam.

while these 2 things prolly wouldn;t have made him hit the board it's worth noting that we would have been up closer and it should have been picked up in the comment section of the pstperfmces more than it was noted

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijn5DwfNis0&t=147s

horse seemed to run decently in the lecomte as well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUlEokIjzOw

here is his SW race when sportung chance only beat him by 1L

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWb-TzZUjqI&t=493s


in watching these 3 races it looks as if zingzang is clearly better than he looks on paper. it also looks like he's improving as well. that may be enough to beat every other closer in here. where does that put him.?.lol i don't know..im not telling you he's gonna circle the field or hit the number.....i'm telling you that he might be sitting on a big race. whether that's a strong close for 3rd remains to be seen. what i don't like is that he's a deep closer. but his odds should be really high and the added distance might help as well. horse could be 50-1

[Bennie]

I used Zing Zang underneath last time but being a plodder he is always up against it if there is slow to moderate pace in the race. His numbers don't have to improve much to be in the mix and will probably use him underneath again today just based on the fact I used him last time and we are always looking for a price horse. He could be the one to add some value.

[clicknow]

in watching these 3 races it looks

Not playing the race, but I've seen Zing Zang 2x in person, he is big --- towers over other horses in the paddock....powerful looking, and a very good lookin' gray.

GL with him

[cutchemist42]

Win bet handicapping

:1: Toss

:2: PP might be better, broke from the 7 in the Rebel and was 4 wide during the turn. For the speedier horses in this race, I think he has the best PP.

:3: Toss

:4: Toss

:6: I actually thought the effort in the FoY was decent. I dont know if the pace setup will be there.

:7: Toss

:8: Toss

:9: Toss

:10: Personally liked the effort in the Gotham. The jockey change interests me as well.

:11: I actually thought based on the replay that the horse maybe should have ran even a bit better. I dont love the PP and the pace setup that I imagine happening

:12: I didnt like the start the horse had in the TB derby. This PP sucks as even though I see a lot of closers/midpack runners inside of him, its still not a guarantee he gets into wide stalking position I would like for him.

:13: Toss

:14: Toss

[Robert Fischer]

for the 'musical jockeys' fans; Tyler Gaffalione chooses :15: over :3:(James Graham up)

[boys at tosconova]

I used Zing Zang underneath last time but being a plodder he is always up against it if there is slow to moderate pace in the race. His numbers don't have to improve much to be in the mix and will probably use him underneath again today just based on the fact I used him last time and we are always looking for a price horse. He could be the one to add some value.

Not playing the race, but I've seen Zing Zang 2x in person, he is big --- towers over other horses in the paddock....powerful looking, and a very good lookin' gray.

GL with him

i spent a long time capping this race only to come up w/ figure horses..lol. if the 1 somehow can finish 3rd it balloons the triple.

will look to play some supers w/ him underneath as well. although i never really bet those.

yolo..lol

[PhantomOnTour]

Looks like another Blue Grass crapshoot. Someone please talk me off the #4 Kanthaka. He's not bred for this, but made a nice move last time before two much better colts ran away from him. He escapes them today and gets the king of Kee in the irons...but I hate Leparoux. I see him tripping well and making a move. If Frenchy can time it right maybe he gets some....or he steps on his pedigree at the 1/4pole.
Need 15-1 for a play

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Looks like another Blue Grass crapshoot. Someone please talk me off the #4 Kanthaka. He's not bred for this, but made a nice move last time before two much better colts ran away from him. He escapes them today and gets the king of Kee in the irons...but I hate Leparoux. I see him tripping well and making a move. If Frenchy can time it right maybe he gets some....or he steps on his pedigree at the 1/4pole.
Need 15-1 for a play

Bet him in his last against Bolt/McKinzie. The 3rd place finish isn't reality in how far he was beaten. He wasn't even close to those two.

He'll be a 1 turn sprint closer. Won't bet another nickel on that horse till then.

[GMB@BP]

Hate this race, by default I ended up on Kanthaka who I believe is a late running sprinter but at least has run well against really nice horses, Hollendorfer is good when he ships.

[boys at tosconova]

Looks like another Blue Grass crapshoot. Someone please talk me off the #4 Kanthaka. He's not bred for this, but made a nice move last time before two much better colts ran away from him. He escapes them today and gets the king of Kee in the irons...but I hate Leparoux. I see him tripping well and making a move. If Frenchy can time it right maybe he gets some....or he steps on his pedigree at the 1/4pole.
Need 15-1 for a play

i dont know if you will get 15-1 but i like his chances to hit the board much moar than winning

[boys at tosconova]

lol ...............$0.10 super key for $2.40 bet.

cheap thrills

11/1-4-10-12

[Tom]

Beyer par for 3yos 8.5-9.0 is 97-98 (G2)
G3 par is 94

Not a lot in here can meet this.

:4: :11: :12: looks like it.
All three look they can move ahead.

I'll go :11: :12:

[LoneF]

This is the prep race I feel like I have a really good read on ... I am going the superfecta route.

1st - :11::12:
2nd- :11::12:
3rd- :2::4::6::10::15:
4th- :2::4::6::10::15:

$40 ticket for $1 base wager. I will punch it 3 times.

[PhantomOnTour]

Kanthaka is 4-1 ?!?!
Really??

[cutchemist42]

Im thinking Im liking

:11: at 5/2
:2: at 4/1
:12: and :10: at 6/1

I think I'll be betting the :2:

[098poi]

Win

:2: and :11:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:9: Tiz Mischief has a shot in here.

Can't dismiss

[PhantomOnTour]

Final thoughts are that Chad has the #11 ready. Playing him over a few in the ex:
11 w 2-4-7
Win: 4-7

[098poi]

:2: was tripping or something. :eek:

[Vinnie]

Final thoughts are that Chad has the #11 ready. Playing him over a few in the ex:
11 w 2-4-7
Win: 4-7

Chad Brown did have Good Magic ready to go again today. Nice call PhantomOnTour...

[GMB@BP]

Not sure what to think of the winner, was wide most of the way, and won against a soft field, but would have liked to see him run a little better. Not sure how much he wants 10 furlongs but he is a nice horse either way.

[luisbe]

This is the prep race I feel like I have a really good read on ... I am going the superfecta route.

1st - :11::12:
2nd- :11::12:
3rd- :2::4::6::10::15:
4th- :2::4::6::10::15:

$40 ticket for $1 base wager. I will punch it 3 times.

Well reading.

[luisbe]

The first and 2nd don't have a chance in the KD at 1-1/4, Free Drop Billy could be hanging for the show.

[boys at tosconova]

ty. steward. friends til the end

[f2tornado]

No complaints there. Pegged the vertical gimmicks. I only wish I hit the race harder. My Future Pool 1 & 2 exacta boxes GM/Others look a bit little better now.

[Spalding No!]

Not sure what to think of the winner, was wide most of the way, and won against a soft field, but would have liked to see him run a little better. Not sure how much he wants 10 furlongs but he is a nice horse either way.

The first and 2nd don't have a chance in the KD at 1-1/4, Free Drop Billy could be hanging for the show.

There's still hope for him based on his prior form cycle. His best race last year was also his 3rd start of his campaign.

Got the contested pace he didn't get last out and was able to settle and bid to clear lead at the top of the stretch. Drifted in a bit down the lane and swapped back to his left lead, but if you have rose-colored glasses on hopefully he is still a bit short and not distance-challenged. Shouldn't be from the pedigree, Curlin along with Tapit and Pioneerof the Nile and their direct antecedants (Smart Strike, AP Indy, Empire Maker) have basically ruled the Triple Crown (especially the Belmont) for the past few years now.

[LoneF]

My take on the 3 horses that came out of the race with a ticket to the Derby ...

Good Magic ... If he follows his form cycle of his 2 yr old year with the same pattern in his 3 yr old year than we could be looking at the Kentucky Derby winner. As a 2 yr old his first race was a runner up in a maiden sprint race. That race served its purpose with setting up a very solid loss by a nose in the Champaign stakes which in turn set him up for his master piece 4 length win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. As a 3 yr old his first race was the visually so-so effort in the fountain of youth running 3rd into the slow pace in front of him but it served its purpose of knocking off the rust from his layoff setting him up for what we saw today which was a very solid if not spectacular victory. Is his next race the Kentucky Derby going to be his 3 yr old masterpiece ???

Nobody does better with 2nd and 3rd off the layoff than Chad Brown. Good Magic currently sits at #1 on my Kentucky Derby list.

Flameaway - This is the perfect type of horse to use in the exotics. He is just a versatile hard knocker that always shows up and manages to get himself in the mix and stay there. I think with as many races as he has under his belt that there is probably not room for a big move forward which is what it usually takes to win the derby but with that being said I won’t have any exacta, trifecta or superfecta tickets that don’t use Flameaway. A must use in the underneath spots.

Free Drop Billy - This horse just strikes me as the kind of horse that is better in theory than in real life. He is the kind of horse where it’s easy to ignore what he has actually done on the track and instead focus on the pedigree and dosage and hypothetical potential moves forward. Personally I don’t see this horse as being one of the 4 best horses in the derby under any pace scenarios so he is a toss for me on both the win end and the underneath spots.

[CincyHorseplayer]

My take on the 3 horses that came out of the race with a ticket to the Derby ...

Good Magic ... If he follows his form cycle of his 2 yr old year with the same pattern in his 3 yr old year than we could be looking at the Kentucky Derby winner. As a 2 yr old his first race was a runner up in a maiden sprint race. That race served its purpose with setting up a very solid loss by a nose in the Champaign stakes which in turn set him up for his master piece 4 length win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. As a 3 yr old his first race was the visually so-so effort in the fountain of youth running 3rd into the slow pace in front of him but it served its purpose of knocking off the rust from his layoff setting him up for what we saw today which was a very solid if not spectacular victory. Is his next race the Kentucky Derby going to be his 3 yr old masterpiece ???

Nobody does better with 2nd and 3rd off the layoff than Chad Brown. Good Magic currently sits at #1 on my Kentucky Derby list.

Flameaway - This is the perfect type of horse to use in the exotics. He is just a versatile hard knocker that always shows up and manages to get himself in the mix and stay there. I think with as many races as he has under his belt that there is probably not room for a big move forward which is what it usually takes to win the derby but with that being said I won’t have any exacta, trifecta or superfecta tickets that don’t use Flameaway. A must use in the underneath spots.

Free Drop Billy - This horse just strikes me as the kind of horse that is better in theory than in real life. He is the kind of horse where it’s easy to ignore what he has actually done on the track and instead focus on the pedigree and dosage and hypothetical potential moves forward. Personally I don’t see this horse as being one of the 4 best horses in the derby under any pace scenarios so he is a toss for me on both the win end and the underneath spots.

Really agree about Flameaway. A couple of the last few years the preps at Tampa produced IMO some decent contenders. I felt this guy's Sam F Davis was one of the better preps this season despite the Beyer. The slow pace and rating tactics hurt him in the TB Derby and the all out hurt him today. But while I was wondering almost strictly if my opinion of the SFD race was going to be validated I think it was. He ran a bang up 2nd. Vino Rosso won at Aqueduct in the Wood from the same race. And Catholic Boy's 3rd in the Florida Derby while bleeding also flattered him.

I will have to see what ratings the 9f preps produce but my Route rating has isolated the winners of the last 6 Derbies. The winners have all had at least a 220. This year no horse in any prep has gotten higher than a 209(Flameaway-209, Audible 209, Bolt Doro-207, Promises Fulfilled-206, Mckinzie-205, My Boy Jack-203, Quip-200). Bolt Doro in this crop got closest at 218 in last year's Frontruner. Even Good Magic only had a 199 in the BC JUvenile. If none of these preps produce anything in the 215-225 range it backs up my opinion that Mendelssohn will be the horse to beat this year.

[f2tornado]

Good Magic snared a 104 Equibase figure. Respectable but not stellar. I too think he will improve in next out but I can’t help but see the similarities to Classic Empire last year. I would have preferred his final 3/8th been about half second faster but that track was likely less than perfect after the rain/snow overnight. I pegged him a littte over 38 seconds which historically has not led to roses. I went ahead and plunked $20 on him in the future pool anyway. TwinSpires has a promo where you will get your $20 back if the horse comes in second. Seemed like the best value in the pool since the 24 option (Vino Rosso, et al) was excluded.

[PoloUK6108]

What'd he close in this last pool? Just curious.

This day was awesome. He's been my boy since November, I made a fan vow to stick with him til he made it to Churchill and we're there with a ton of points baby! Love my $20 win locked in at 11-1 right now!

[PoloUK6108]

Should've seen Good Magic in the paddock. A handful the whole way, he was the absolute last to be led away from the stone stalls and looked like Floyd Maywether headed to the ring with his entourage. Clearly I'm redboarding but he was always winning.

[f2tornado]

What'd he close in this last pool? Just curious.

He was 11-1 in Pool 3. Sitting at 10-1 now. Justify hype allowing for nice odds on most everything else. I have him over and under about half the gate courtesy of the All Others button in Pool 1 & 2.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Should've seen Good Magic in the paddock. A handful the whole way, he was the absolute last to be led away from the stone stalls and looked like Floyd Maywether headed to the ring with his entourage. Clearly I'm redboarding but he was always winning.

Redboarding a sub 2-1=:lol:

[PoloUK6108]

Whatever man just saying I'm discussing the race after the fact. He looked like a winner

[PoloUK6108]

And the way people were talking before Saturday he should've floated way up not taken a ton. All I saw was knocks against him

[classhandicapper]

I played Sporting Chance off his wide trip close to the pace last time and the fact that that I thought he was better as a 2yo than given credit for. I had him Win/Place and in a big exacta box with Good Magic.

Anyone besides me think he was about to take 2nd when he bore out?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Whatever man just saying I'm discussing the race after the fact. He looked like a winner

I'm just cuttin jokes anyway! So many players are so redboard sensitive it cracks me up. On big race days with all the prep and focus going into being the best player you can be that day it's often not a top priority to go get your prerace analysis in on whatever boards you are on. Much of the decision making goes at 5 minutes or so to post. But we like to talk turkey about the game and that often lasts well into the night after the races. It's fun! I get it!

[Robert Fischer]

I played Sporting Chance off his wide trip close to the pace last time and the fact that that I thought he was better as a 2yo than given credit for. I had him Win/Place and in a big exacta box with Good Magic.

Anyone besides me think he was about to take 2nd when he bore out?

I thought so.

He looked like a drunken sailor late.


Had a double-key with :2::11: in the superfecta, with some coverage elsewhere to net a bomb

Not a huge Sporting Chance fan, but he's a solid horse, coming off a wide trip vs. stakes quality, and figured to be inside speed today. Didn't get loose or anything, but he hung in there and ran his race. Unfortunately the sequence was soc chalky it was like $26 or something. I did all 6 combos (1st2nd, 1st3rd,1st4th,2nd3rd,24,34) so $26 was a net loss.

Tough betting race when there are so many attractive values and then the low-priced fav not only wins, but the whole ticket runs pure chalk...

One of those things where if the fav (11) is one of your keys, you are going to need some luck with a longshot or two just to break even. Pass is better, or use the race as a single in a multi.

:13: made a heck of a middle move, but never really had a chance wide. Assuming healthy, he should be tough in the right spot (is there a 7f/M race for 3yos on Derby day?

:12: - I have to re-watch his race. Obviously a contender, but I want to look how much if any that wide post hurt his performance, and whether he did significant running to overcome that. - or was it a with the flow decent trip...

[Michael]

I bet Sporting Chance on top also and didn't mess with the exotics. Couldn't believe my eyes... he lugged in-AND-out fairly hard. Maybe It was wrong to bet against the :11: I still think the bet was a solid look. :ThmbUp:

[Mulerider]

He looked like a drunken sailor late.



What was the deal there? The first time I watched the replay I thought he spooked by a long shadow thrown by a pole on the rail. The next time I watched, that incident looked like he veered out at precisely the moment his jock went from right-hand to left-hand whip.

[PoloUK6108]

Buzzer? ...Lukas and saez at it again :D

[Spalding No!]

What was the deal there? The first time I watched the replay I thought he spooked by a long shadow thrown by a pole on the rail. The next time I watched, that incident looked like he veered out at precisely the moment his jock went from right-hand to left-hand whip.
Remember that Sporting Chance did something very similar in last year's Hopeful in which he was still able to hold on for the victory.

It is no coincidence that Sporting Chance had knee surgery a couple of weeks after the Hopeful.

Or he simply hates Free Drop Billy...

[Mulerider]

Remember that Sporting Chance did something very similar in last year's Hopeful in which he was still able to hold on for the victory.

It is no coincidence that Sporting Chance had knee surgery a couple of weeks after the Hopeful.

Or he simply hates Free Drop Billy...

Thanks, Spalding No!. Do you have access to the head-on of that Hopeful? I just watched it several times, and it appears to me that in the stretch Sporting Chance was traveling in a generally straight line, with some outward motion, but not a whole lot. Saez got him straightened up with the right whip. Then it looks to me like Saez switched to the left whip and the horse immediately bolted hard to the outside, just like yesterday. You have to watch very closely for the hand change.

Maybe someone with better eyes will see it differently. I'm beginning to think that for some reason this horse doesn't want to be hit on the left side.

Mule

[Spalding No!]

Thanks, Spalding No!. Do you have access to the head-on of that Hopeful? I just watched it several times, and it appears to me that in the stretch Sporting Chance was traveling in a generally straight line, with some outward motion, but not a whole lot. Saez got him straightened up with the right whip. Then it looks to me like Saez switched to the left whip and the horse immediately bolted hard to the outside, just like yesterday. You have to watch very closely for the hand change.

Maybe someone with better eyes will see it differently. I'm beginning to think that for some reason this horse doesn't want to be hit on the left side.

Mule
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQZO8EsgEZI

Above is the broadcast of the entire racecard. Check about 1 hour and 9 minutes in for some headon replays.

The horse was already drifting out prior to the left hand stick. While your point about use of the whip is valid (and a common excuse for horses that do these things), what's really happening more often than not is that the jockey is switching sticks in reaction to the horse's movements...not the other way around.

Consider related trip notes such as "drifted out - bore out - lugged out - bolted" as being on a kind of continuum. All these things from minor to extreme typically point to soundness problems with the horse.

Such antics are also dismissed as "greeness" and "inexperience", but the reality is the horse likely has physical issues. Note that the horse is pulled up fairly quickly without much of a gallop out. Also of interest the head-on stride of Sporting Chance, he has a much more exaggerated and wide action than his rivals which hints at conformational faults that can predispose a horse to physical problems.

Again, it was no coincidence that Sporting Chance required surgery and a layoff following the Hopeful. We'll see how quickly he reappears after this weekend's race. He might not get time off this time (since he's had surgery recently), but even if he is able to train I wouldn't anticipate improved performance without a significant drop in class.

[Michael]

@Spalding No!

Fantastic posts. Exactly why I still visit these forums. There's always opinions and things to read and learn. I'm sure many have forgotten more about horse racing then i've ever know.

For the sake of contrast, I've also learned what not to do from this forum :lol: jkjk :D

[Spalding No!]

@Spalding No!

Fantastic posts. Exactly why I still visit these forums. There's always opinions and things to read and learn. I'm sure many have forgotten more about horse racing then i've ever know.

For the sake of contrast, I've also learned what not to do from this forum :lol: jkjk :D
Thanks. You have to take all this with a grain of salt. Just because there are subtle or conspicuous signs in a horse's running line doesn't necessarily mean they are ailing significantly or can't perform in the near term.

Elsewhere I mentioned that Justify's stretch drive in the Santa Anita Derby was similar to Dortmund's in 2015 (both labored to switch leads and drifted thereafter). Dortmund lost his right front shoe in his race. As it turns out, Justify twisted his right front shoe out of place yesterday. If you are willing to factor in such seemingly minor details when handicapping, it becomes a chicken-or-the egg kind of problem. Did the loss of a shoe result in change in stride or did a change in stride (due to physical discomfort) cause the shoe to come off?

Probably more important than anything else with respect to Justify is that it hints at some chink(s) in the armor (as opposed to Michael Wrona's unobstructed "ascent to greatness") that remind us that Baffert--regardless of what he says to the press-- is applying a lot of pressure to Justify in order to get him to Churchill Downs.

At the same time, you can complain about the other big winners this weekend. Good Magic labored to clear a beleaguered frontrunner (Flameaway) in the stretch and swapped back to his left lead. Vino Rosso lugged in repeatedly and impeded a foe while winning the Wood Memorial.

[Mulerider]

The horse was already drifting out prior to the left hand stick. While your point about use of the whip is valid (and a common excuse for horses that do these things), what's really happening more often than not is that the jockey is switching sticks in reaction to the horse's movements...not the other way around.



Thanks again! I just read the Bloodhorse article on the race, and D. Wayne Lucas had this to say about Sporting Chance:

"He has shied twice with Luis (Saez) with the left-handed stick, and I guess he doesn't like it," said D. Wayne Lukas, trainer of Sporting Chance, referencing the colt's similar antics while winning the Hopeful Stakes (G1) in September. "He has never given any indication in the morning. He is probably the easiest horse in the barn to train."

Good Magic Lives Up to the Hype in Bluegrass
(https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/226866/good-magic-lives-up-to-the-hype-in-blue-grass)

I'm not disagreeing with anything you said, by the way. I'm just happy my eyes weren't deceiving me!

Mule

[LoneF]

Just re watched the Bluegrass a few times, and for those of you who are saying that Sporting Chance was going by Flameaway before he veered off into the middle of the track are just seeing what you want to see. Flameaway was definently going the better of the two and actually starting to edge clear a bit of Sporting Chance when that one started with his antics.

[Spalding No!]

Just re watched the Bluegrass a few times, and for those of you who are saying that Sporting Chance was going by Flameaway before he veered off into the middle of the track are just seeing what you want to see. Flameaway was definently going the better of the two and actually starting to edge clear a bit of Sporting Chance when that one started with his antics.
As versatile and consistent as Flameaway has proved to be, I wonder if he may have been aided by the surface on Saturday. The Blue Grass was the only main track route race on the card not won in wire-to-wire fashion, though I presume most would agree that Flameaway put up an extraordinary effort to battle on the front end throughout and to give way only grudgingly down the stretch.

However I'm no expert in detecting a track bias so perhaps someone else can elucidate.

[Mulerider]

As versatile and consistent as Flameaway has proved to be, I wonder if he may have been aided by the surface on Saturday. The Blue Grass was the only main track route race on the card not won in wire-to-wire fashion, though I presume most would agree that Flameaway put up an extraordinary effort to battle on the front end throughout and to give way only grudgingly down the stretch.

However I'm no expert in detecting a track bias so perhaps someone else can elucidate.

Flameaway convinced me to use him in exactas and trifectas, for sure. I thought he showed heart.

[cj]

As versatile and consistent as Flameaway has proved to be, I wonder if he may have been aided by the surface on Saturday. The Blue Grass was the only main track route race on the card not won in wire-to-wire fashion, though I presume most would agree that Flameaway put up an extraordinary effort to battle on the front end throughout and to give way only grudgingly down the stretch.

However I'm no expert in detecting a track bias so perhaps someone else can elucidate.

I don't think the track was biased. Forgetting the sprints, the routes looked like this:


R2: Class dropping horse wins as second choice, favorite basically a turf horse trying dirt
R5: Off the turfer won by a horse with much the best dirt form IMO
R9: Heavy favorite that was never losing. Runner up came from way back while wide on turn and through the stretch.
R11: Good Magic wide on both turns. That isn't a trip that leads to wins on a biased track.


Just my two cents. This doesn't even touch on the sprints which if anything were mostly won with outside flows from off the pace.

[Spalding No!]

I don't think the track was biased. Forgetting the sprints, the routes looked like this:


R2: Class dropping horse wins as second choice, favorite basically a turf horse trying dirt
R5: Off the turfer won by a horse with much the best dirt form IMO
R9: Heavy favorite that was never losing. Runner up came from way back while wide on turn and through the stretch.
R11: Good Magic wide on both turns. That isn't a trip that leads to wins on a biased track.


Just my two cents. This doesn't even touch on the sprints which if anything were mostly won with outside flows from off the pace.
Thanks, I figured it would have already been well spelled out if there was a distinct issue with the track. The lack of a bias that would have aided Flameaway keeps the question marks on Good Magic's labored stretch run on the table as far as his chances at Churchill.

As for the latter part of your post, on a track that does have a distinct speed-favoring bias, do you often see a "split" so to speak between routes and sprints?

I'm thinking back to the sloppy Monmouth BC in 2007, where the routes were pretty much won on the pace (and possibly the rail) while the sprints (Midnight Lute, Maryfield) came from far back.

I would guess that track biases affect routes more distinctly than sprints, since sprints more often than not feature a fast, contested pace which on an overall scale is more significant than (or at least cancels out) the advantage of a speed-favoring bias.

[cj]

Thanks, I figured it would have already been well spelled out if there was a distinct issue with the track. The lack of a bias that would have aided Flameaway keeps the question marks on Good Magic's labored stretch run on the table as far as his chances at Churchill.

As for the latter part of your post, on a track that does have a distinct speed-favoring bias, do you often see a "split" so to speak between routes and sprints?

I'm thinking back to the sloppy Monmouth BC in 2007, where the routes were pretty much won on the pace (and possibly the rail) while the sprints (Midnight Lute, Maryfield) came from far back.

I would guess that track biases affect routes more distinctly than sprints, since sprints more often than not feature a fast, contested pace which on an overall scale is more significant than (or at least cancels out) the advantage of a speed-favoring bias.

It can happen where sprints and routes are different, but I think that has more to do with wind than the paths. It makes little sense for the inside to be good for one and not the other. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but I think people misunderstand why a lot of times.

PS...I remember on that Monmouth card some filly sprinter running a whole through the wind in one of the pre-BC races.

[Robert Fischer]

:12: Flameaway got a really good trip relative to that wide post and his running style. Used some horse early, but got over in time for a good path on the first turn.

Was curious, because I didn't focus on Flameaway, and wondered if he ran some huge effort while wide into the first turn. He didn't.

Pace was good enough and having to use some horse from the gate was hard enough, that I would not call it a 'dream trip', but it was a fair trip. Entered the stretch on the wrong lead for a couple strides and simply wasn't good enough in the stretch to contend with Good Magic.

[clicknow]

I've seen Sporting Chance 2x in person and my overall impression of him was that he would be better for the Preakness, Cherry Wine type.

[boys at tosconova]

great price for the triple.

considering it was a top 3 option imo and either the 1st/2nd/or 3rd number called if you played trips w/ the fav on top.