Audible Going Forward?

[1GCFAN]

Made another nice winning move in the FD only this time he didn't gallop out like the last time. A lot of mixed signals; breeding doesn't suggest 1 1/4, not a good work horse, strayed off course late, but physically very good looking, and a form that will have him one of the top betting choices.

However, Harlan's Holiday the sire of Into Mitchief won twice at 1 1/8 before the Derby but never got a 1 1/4 until 4. I believe HH one of my all time favs went off at 5/2 in the derby.

Your thoughts....

[Afleet]

I hope Vino Rosso fires in the Wood. Think he has the most upside of the Pletcher horses at the classic distances. Who has run better combined preps than Audible? I don't like his pedigree for a 1 1/4, but that seems less and less important every year. I didn't have Always Dreaming on any of my tickets last year and that didn't work out very well.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Betting Mendelssohn. Breaking Storm Cat and Northern Dancer and UAE Derby mold yeah what!:D

[f2tornado]

Storm Cat's are 0-51 in the Derby which should give one pause. On the other hand, Audible ran a fast final 3/8th and has a double dose of Buckpasser-x. That combination has hit the Derby exacta pool about 50% of the time. That's too crazy a stat to ignore. Additionally, Audible received a 111 Equibase figure, highest Florida Derby score since 112 achieved by Quality Road and Big Brown. Thirdly, I'll assume Johnny V stays on board and he knows how to find the roses. I'll ignore his sire line and dosage while awaiting results from the next set of preps. I'm sure I'll find a way to play some Pool 4 exacta combos with him before end of the weekend.

I hope Vino Rosso fires in the Wood.
Likewise. I accidentally made a $3 box Bolt/Vino in Pool 3. Pays about a grand if I get more lucky than good.

[Afleet]

Storm Cat's are 0-51 in the Derby which should give one pause. On the other hand, Audible ran a fast final 3/8th and has a double dose of Buckpasser-x. That combination has hit the Derby exacta pool about 50% of the time. That's too crazy a stat to ignore. Additionally, Audible received a 111 Equibase figure, highest Florida Derby score since 112 achieved by Quality Road and Big Brown. Thirdly, I'll assume Johnny V stays on board and he knows how to find the roses. I'll ignore his sire line and dosage while awaiting results from the next set of preps. I'm sure I'll find a way to play some Pool 4 exacta combos with him before end of the weekend.


Likewise. I accidentally made a $3 box Bolt/Vino in Pool 3. Pays about a grand if I get more lucky than good.

My Mendolssohn/Vino Rosso exacta pays a cool $7k and $3600 reversed. Now if we can just get the field scratched down to those 2, I'm in business:D

[CincyHorseplayer]

Storm Cat's are 0-51 in the Derby which should give one pause. On the other hand, Audible ran a fast final 3/8th and has a double dose of Buckpasser-x. That combination has hit the Derby exacta pool about 50% of the time. That's too crazy a stat to ignore. Additionally, Audible received a 111 Equibase figure, highest Florida Derby score since 112 achieved by Quality Road and Big Brown. Thirdly, I'll assume Johnny V stays on board and he knows how to find the roses. I'll ignore his sire line and dosage while awaiting results from the next set of preps. I'm sure I'll find a way to play some Pool 4 exacta combos with him before end of the weekend.


Likewise. I accidentally made a $3 box Bolt/Vino in Pool 3. Pays about a grand if I get more lucky than good.

I'm going to ignore both Audible but especially Mendelssohn's sire line too. RAN line has only won 58% of the derbies since 1990. Speed figures have won 80%+. I think European horses are trained to handle distance moreso than their stateside counterparts. This one has pace ability also. With the right man in my opinion in Obrien. I am going for it with this horse.

[Robert Fischer]

Audible has some unknowns about him.

That was a good trip in the Florida Derby. He didn't have to make his own race, or win any duels, it was just a matter of firing. The pace fell in his lap, he had a perfect ride, Catholic Boy didn't run a Derby-worthy race, Hofburg basically mirrored/followed Audible's move.
Give credit to Audible for firing.

[pandy]

Audible isn't the type of horse I'd want to back next time if he's the favorite. He sat off an historically fast early pace, two of his main rivals were used dueling through that pace, and, the usually patient Leparoux moved his horse too soon. Audible looked good but the race did fall apart in front of him. All he had to do is close better than Hofburg, who is still developing.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Audible isn't the type of horse I'd want to back next time if he's the favorite. He sat off an historically fast early pace, two of his main rivals were used dueling through that pace, and, the usually patient Leparoux moved his horse too soon. Audible looked good but the race did fall apart in front of him. All he had to do is close better than Hofburg, who is still developing.

Absolutely. He has run 2 solid race in my opinion. But 10 f first Saturday in May not willing to commit. Boy Pandy hope we are right about non favorites at some point! Derby been a snoozer lately!

[michiken]

Audible looked a little exhausted after the race, at least to me.

The horse was twisting/turning his head like he pulled a shoulder muscle... something did NOT seem right.

I will be playing against him in the Derby.

Is Audible another Pletcher horse burned up during the early derby chase?

[boys at tosconova]

beastmaster-


slow time should keep his win price decent in the derby. don't let that bother you, track wasn't fast..... major playa for the win w/ goot post

[Parkview_Pirate]

beastmaster-


slow time should keep his win price decent in the derby. don't let that bother you, track wasn't fast..... major playa for the win w/ goot post

With four straight wins, two of them 5+ lengths, and speed figures near the top, I think he'll be chalk, an underlay and dangerous. I say that with the disclaimer of being 1 for 32 in picking the Derby (though I do have 6 second place finishes), liking him a little, and probably jinxing him.

I agree wholeheartedly that with a decent post, he's a must use.....

Unless a couple of the Derby prep winners crushes foes, I don't see how Audible doesn't go off at 4-1 or less. We'll know more on Sunday night when the future pool 3 closes.

[f2tornado]

There’s going to be a Wood, SA, Bluegrass, and Ark winner on top of some solid place horses. Always Dreaming was, in my opinion, an obvious choice last year and went off as 9/2 favorite. Probably similar this year unless Jusify easily wins SA which I don’t expect. Audible fits some of my favorite Derby angles. My only knock is the sire. That was my primary knock on Nyquist and the horse still won.

[boys at tosconova]

With four straight wins, two of them 5+ lengths, and speed figures near the top, I think he'll be chalk, an underlay and dangerous. I say that with the disclaimer of being 1 for 32 in picking the Derby (though I do have 6 second place finishes), liking him a little, and probably jinxing him.

I agree wholeheartedly that with a decent post, he's a must use.....

Unless a couple of the Derby prep winners crushes foes, I don't see how Audible doesn't go off at 4-1 or less. We'll know more on Sunday night when the future pool 3 closes.


maybe..i don't know. for some reason my brain was thinking his not so fast fldrby time will put him around 5th choice somehow. i really had 8-1 in my head...prolly a pipe dream...but maybe w/ mendy, bolt and possibly good magic running bigtime..not to mention justy

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Audible has ran 2 monster races rolling into the Derby. Ague with the numbers and setups all you want. He was distancing himself from supposedly 'solid' fields.

Connections are solid. He should be on go.

He has to be respected as a very possible favorite a few weeks from now.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Audible has ran 2 monster races rolling into the Derby. Ague with the numbers and setups all you want. He was distancing himself from supposedly 'solid' fields.

Connections are solid. He should be on go.

He has to be respected as a very possible favorite a few weeks from now.

Completely agree.:ThmbUp:

[Parkview_Pirate]

maybe..i don't know. for some reason my brain was thinking his not so fast fldrby time will put him around 5th choice somehow. i really had 8-1 in my head...prolly a pipe dream...but maybe w/ mendy, bolt and possibly good magic running bigtime..not to mention justy

You may be right. After Justify's impressive win yesterday, he's now the chalk in the Futures 4 pool at 3-1, which is crazy. Why not take 5-2 on Derby Day, and not run the risk of him getting injured and scratched?

I was thinking the West Coast ponies don't get as much respect, since I'm stuck in the late 1980s when Winning Colors and Sunday Silence were higher odds at CD versus back in Southern California, back in the days prior to co-mingling.

Since a case can be made that maybe Bolt and Enticed weren't fully cranked up for their runs yesterday (they have enough points to get in already), and with the mysterious love for Mendelssohn in the Futures 4 pool (4-1? What? :eek: ), it's possible Audible could be 6 or 8-1. I should never underestimate the public's ability for short-term memory. (Note - in the Futures 4 pool, Audible currently 6-1, Bolt D'Oro 8-1, Good Magic 10-1, and Enticed 25-1 - which I also find shocking). I don't see anything too exciting happening in the Arkansas Derby next Saturday, but ya never know.

As they say in sports, I'd describe Audible's "body of work" the most impressive so far, but we'll find out on Derby Day. As always, a great race.