Florida Derby

[lefty359]

Any thoughts? Pizzolla says public prob has it right with top choices but if he can get 15-1 on Mississippi or 20-1 on Storm Runner he'd play.

[lefty359]

Platinum exacta play is 1-4-6
I like the 9 at a price. It's 3rd late,so maybe Pizzolla has something

[pandy]

I picked Mississippi. 9-8-6-7.

[Tom]

GP Batting practice.....

Race 1

:2: :3: in a fast paced race.

[Tom]

Race 2 :7:

[GMB@BP]

I am on Catholic Boy at 3/1 or greater. I think his last was sneaky good and should get a good pace to run into.

I think the Judmontte horse is interesting.

[JohnGalt1]

I bet :5:Storm Runner and :8:Audible both to win with :4:Promises Fulfilled in an exacta.

[depalma113]

Storm Runner in a romp.

I hope.

[bigjohna]

4 towin box 489 ex

[PaceAdvantage]

I suck so bad lately, definitely don't bet whomever I pick.

With that said, I like the :1: Strike Power

[BCOURTNEY]

:1: STRIKE POWER
:4: PROMISES FULFILLED

[Tom]

I suck so bad lately, definitely don't bet whomever I pick.

With that said, I like the :1: Strike Power

Hey! Thanks a lot! :rant::rant:

[Robert Fischer]

Looks like a wide open Florida Derby.

Audible is the elephant in the room. If he runs his Holy Bull, it's a romp.
Tossing him today from the poor works, but I don't really know what will happen with him.

Strike Power is a hell of a horse, but I don't like horses who can't change leads. He has changed leads in his works, and Saez is a good fit.
Tossing today against an improvement in footwork.

Looks like Catholic Boy will take a lot of money today too. 'Name' horse with 'buzz', but he is a solid horse.

Romans has a couple decent horses.

Mississippi is a decent horse.

Hofburg caught my eye on Fountain of Youth day. He has yet to prove that he's a stakes horse, but he's enough of a price with enough going on here that I'll use.


I came up with the following paper-bets, primarily relying on a double-key of
:6: CATHOLIC BOY
and
:7: HOFBURG

dime supers
1st+2nd = 6,7/6,7/all/all =$8.40
1st+3rd = 6,7/all/6,7/all
1st+4th = 6,7/all/all/6,7
2nd+3rd = all/6,7/6,7/all
2nd+4th = all/6,7/all/6,7
3rd+4th = all/all/6,7/6,7
($8.40 x 6) = $50.40

next, some suitable wagers for both keys;
dime super = 469/469/all/*7* = $3.60
dime super = *67*/4679/all/*67* = $2.40
dime super = 18/679/679/all = $7.20
50cent tri = 469/469/*7* = $3
50cent tri box = [45679] = $30

$1 exacta = ALL/*7*= $7
$1 exacta = 146789/*7* =$5
$2 exacta = *6/7* = $2
$2 exacta = *2*/1456789 =$12
$20 win on *#7* HOFBURG = $20
$2 exacta box = 7/9 = $4


TOTAL for all wagers = $146.60

[JayTris07]

#:9: MISSISSIPPI

:cool:

[Tom]

That was one damn fine race~!
Running fast early and faster late.
Cancel the Wood.:lol:

[thespaah]

I picked Mississippi. 9-8-6-7.

If played as a super box, you win.

[Robert Fischer]

Hot pace.
Nice run by Audible.

Hofburg ran to his ability, but he's not a superstar. He kind of needed Audible to run a stinker.

have to watch the replay to see if the 1 changed leads, and whether the 4 is worth an upgrade after both blazed through the first turn.

Catholic Boy was really underlayed, but he seemed to run to form. Have to re-watch for any trouble.



dime supers
1st+2nd = 6,7/6,7/all/all =$8.40
1st+3rd = 6,7/all/6,7/all
1st+4th = 6,7/all/all/6,7
2nd+3rd = all/6,7/6,7/all
2nd+4th = all/6,7/all/6,7 ($46.30
3rd+4th = all/all/6,7/6,7
($8.40 x 6) = $50.40

next, some suitable wagers for both keys;
dime super = 469/469/all/*7* = $3.60
dime super = *67*/4679/all/*67* = $2.40
dime super = 18/679/679/all = $7.20 ($46.30
50cent tri = 469/469/*7* = $3
50cent tri box = [45679] = $30

$1 exacta = ALL/*7*= $7 ($ 25.40
$1 exacta = 146789/*7* =$5 ($25.40
$2 exacta = *6/7* = $2
$2 exacta = *2*/1456789 =$12
$20 win on *#7* HOFBURG = $20
$2 exacta box = 7/9 = $4


TOTAL for all wagers = $146.60
($143.30) -$3.30

[zico20]

You could have given me 99-1 odds on the :1: and :4: after the first quarter and I would not have taken it. Not sure what they were thinking blazing that fast on a slow track.

[GMB@BP]

Really surprised how poor Catholic Boy ran, that Sam Davis races was really bad in hindsight I suppose.

Cant knock the winner at all, it was a fast pace but at least he finished off it, not like he had to grind out some tired horses. I think the runner up is usable next out as well, he will suck some money but the talent may be real.

[Afleet]

You could have given me 99-1 odds on the :1: and :4: after the first quarter and I would not have taken it. Not sure what they were thinking blazing that fast on a slow track.

that was crazy by the :4: should of just let the :1: go; burned themselves up

[Immortal6]

that was crazy by the :4: should of just let the :1: go; burned themselves up

With Promised Fullfilled having stamped his ticket to the derby I wonder if Romans wanted to use this as a glorified workout.... after setting fractions like he did today going 23.4 and 47 in the Derby will be a cakewalk.

[JustRalph]

The :1: and :4: damn sure weren't trying to win today


The 1st and 2nd place horses looked like Men among Boys......

[Robert Fischer]

That was an insane pace.

Have to give Pletcher credit. He trained Audible the way he thought the horse was comfortable, and he kept up a confident face in all the pre-race hoopla.

A lesser trainer would have caved, and made an effort to work Audible faster in the mornings, and/or work him against some hammer-locked scrubs for the sake of appearances.

Sure fooled me. I see a horse consistently 'losing' workouts, and I doubt that he's a Derby contender. Horse looked good on track, and Johnny V. did a nice pre-race warm up.

He got a nice setup today, but ran a good race. Looks pretty much as good as all but maybe Justify at this stage.

[Augenj]

I suck so bad lately, definitely don't bet whomever I pick.

With that said, I like the :1: Strike Power
"hard-used, rebid, stopped" short comments. Insane.

[cj]

The :1: and :4: damn sure weren't trying to win today


The 1st and 2nd place horses looked like Men among Boys......

Total pace collapse. I figured the first 1/4 was another timing error at GP when I saw it but it was correct. Those guys were insane going that fast.

[pandy]

I can't remember ever seeing a first quarter that fast in a 9 furlong race. Certainly not at a major racetrack.

[lamboguy]

i had all but the last leg in the rainbow yesterday, i just didn't like AUDIBLE. i still don't care for the horse, so he will probably win in Kentucky.

[Tom]

I am confidently throwing Audible out of the mix at the Derby.
Pletcher is the Mayor of Miami, but he's the Loser of Louisville. :D

He lucked in to that win last year.

[classhandicapper]

Not sure what they were thinking blazing that fast on a slow track.

That happens sometimes when two speed horses faced each other last time and one tried rating but it didn't work. The connections will say to themselves, "Sitting off that other horses didn't work last time. So let's trying gunning to the lead and make him sit off us this time".

From the rail, I thought it was almost certain Strike Power would "go" since rating didn't work last time. The crazy ride was on Promises Fulfilled. Maybe that horse is just absolutely unrateable, but it didn't seem like Albarado tried very hard. He doomed them both.

This is the flip side of "why do they always choke?"

Sometime they choke because they don't want to blow a check finishing last and next to last with two quality horses by being too aggressive.

[lefty359]

I though Audible ran a great race but won't make any Derby decisions till I see he pp's and evaluate ea. horse. Especially the 3rd fraction.

[GMB@BP]

That happens sometimes when two speed horses faced each other last time and one tried rating but it didn't work. The connections will say to themselves, "Sitting off that other horses didn't work last time. So let's trying gunning to the lead and make him sit off us this time".

From the rail, I thought it was almost certain Strike Power would "go" since rating didn't work last time. The crazy ride was on Promises Fulfilled. Maybe that horse is just absolutely unrateable, but it didn't seem like Albarado tried very hard. He doomed them both.

This is the flip side of "why do they always choke?"

Sometime they choke because they don't want to blow a check finishing last and next to last with two quality horses by being too aggressive.

Thats the way I handicapped it, when Strike Power drew inside he almost was committed to be very aggressive, I have no idea what the rider on the 4 was doing.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Being able to run down a fast pace. Solid figure. Good enough.

[Tom]

Todd Pletcher - proven loser.
Audible - throw out.

[Tom]

Sometime they choke because they don't want to blow a check finishing last and next to last with two quality horses by being too aggressive.

They also choke because most of them do not have a good enough foundation and are not prepared to face really good horses or put together two good races in a row.
THe whole Derby picture laterly is each prep is won by a different horse - that is their legacy.

If the Derby were run in Florida,, Pletcher would have won a dozen by now, but he leaves his miracles at the state line.

[classhandicapper]

They also choke because most of them do not have a good enough foundation and are not prepared to face really good horses or put together two good races in a row.
THe whole Derby picture laterly is each prep is won by a different horse - that is their legacy.

If the Derby were run in Florida,, Pletcher would have won a dozen by now, but he leaves his miracles at the state line.

He does tend to get his horses to peak a little too soon in Florida. I have no major issue with the winner, but I think the Derby winner is probably based in California. I thought McKinzie and Bolt d'Oro were terrific last out and Justify may be better than both of them. Solomini may be a little better than he looked last out off a layoff and I wouldn't be shocked if Restoring Hope runs a big one in the Wood even if he doesn't win. Too bad McKinzie will miss the Derby.

[lefty359]

he thing with Justify he hasn't yet qualified for the KY Derby. He can if he runs 1st or 2nd in SA Derby. Course, you all prob. know that. Luck to him.