Let's handicap a race Friday

[Tom]

Aqueduct, Race 5

Alw NW1$ NYSB 1 mile

Nice collection proven losers who have little talent and less speed. You garden variety state bred allowance race.

:1: 60-4-4-11 and still trying to win a first level allowance!
:2: Big win in slop in nw2 claimer - can he get a mile on a fast track?
:3: A couple of good figs in nw2 claimers, tired last time in a slow-slow allowance race while running with two others ealry
:4: Had the catbird seat in that slow allowance race and faded badly - failed three times at this condition so far
:5: 44 3-4-7 Lots of tries for this one. Did win an allowance race at FL and was right there in the same allowance last time.
Holly Week.....hunch play? He's my second choice
:6: 13 3-3-2 on dirt, so not a total failure, but was badly beaten in the same slow allowance race last time.
:7: Just missed in that same allowance last time, second of a lay off, had some good figs previously. Looks best to me. I can forgive losing the slow race since it was his first back and he has better figs to run back to.


:7::5::2:

[Tom]

WhoBet and TFUS both have this as a free race, btw.

[jay68802]

:1: Tough read hear, has show the ability to run fast enough to win here on rare occasions. Could be the break did this 7 yr old some good and he is feeling good. But chased two duelers in last and got a default win. Could upset again but I doubt it.

:2: The good news is that it only took 16 tries to break the maiden, and only two tries to get the second win. That is also the bad news. Seems to like the distance and DD is up. Close but not quite.

:3: Claimed two back from a trainer that you do not want to claim from. Oscar, you need learn from Robertino, and only use only the finest Nebraska hay, the highest quality oats, and no tap water, only bottled water.

:4: Need the lead type should take some money, but not mine. The last two are horrible, should be in claiming races.

:5: Get what you see with this one, sits off the pace and tries to win in the stretch. Gets a good set up here with the 3 and 4 dueling, and fading. Second or third is where he likes to run.

:6: See two Allowance races on the form and he beat 2 runners at this level. Might beat a couple here but no more.

:7: Mr. Obvious here gets the pick just because he is the most reliable of the runners. 7 placings and only 1 win are a concern, but if he can't get it done in this spot, will be claimed in next race.

[letswastemoney]

If it rains, I'd take a chance on :2: Light the Vow. He only wins on wet dirt.

I don't really like the race overall though.

[thaskalos]

:1: Routed twice at Aqueduct at today's class, and failed miserably both times. Rebounded with a win off the layoff on the class drop and distance cut-back...but now climbs back to Waterloo territory again. Not for my money.

:2: The best four finishes of his past performance record have come on wet surfaces, and his runaway victory 2 back on the muddy track looks unrepeatable to me. My guess is that he prefers a sprint. Not a contender for the win.

:3: Hates the slop so we can forgive his race 2 back, but what do we do with his most recent failure? Alvarado skips, and Jeremy Rose is seldom used meaningfully by these connections. Pass.

:4: Form steadily declining, with no hope for a reversal in sight. Pass.

:5: Fits the preliminary handicapping requirements, and possesses a running style which could prove an asset in this race. Contender.

:6: Was well bet last race at the same class level, and bombed. Maybe Alvarado sees something that I can't see. But, since it's MY money...Alvarado's judgement must be put aside. Pass.

:7: The most obvious contender and certain race favorite. I can't find fault with him on any of the handicapping fundamentals...but I'd like to have seen a less strenuous effort off the long layoff.


The :7: is too obvious for my taste, and the :5: is too inferior by comparison to warrant a meaningful win-wager. A flyer on a :7:-:5:-:2: cold trifecta might be all that this race is worth...IMO.

[MJC922]

I'm working today so not much time to dig into the race. FWIW, my computer generated line for the race looks like this:

Dynamax Prime 2-1
Light the Vow 7-2
Guick 5-1
Holy Week 7-1
The Great Samurai 10-1
Special Story 14-1
Prophet's Cat 23-1

[FakeNameChanged]

:1: Prophet's Cat- Was last race's win due to class drop or has he improved this much? He raced 5 wide l.r.-today on the rail.

:2: Light The Vow-not a bad race last off layoff to fin. 3rd at 6f in lower. Modest speed improvement but at 6f.

:3: Special Story-set pace to 6f in last race in same class as today then faded while on the rail. Not wild about the jockey change.

:4: Guick-finished 5th last race against 3 others in same race.

:5: Holy Week-ran a close-up 3rd in last race at same class while on the rail and finally moved 2W at the 1/4. Post may improve chances today.

:6: The Great Samurai -move up to this same class l.r. appears to have been too steep.

:7: Dynamax Prime -Lost by a nose last race, same class off a 6+ month layoff. 2-1 ML looks legit, good jockey. Speed ratings at this distance look to be best over last several, similar effort today wins this one.

Going against the grain on this one. :3: :5: :7:

[Bennie]

:1: - ran lifetime best fig last as a 7 year old, think he regresses bad and trainer is like 4%
:2:- 2nd off layoff can improve and get a piece
:3:- since claim 2 back has done no running and connections suck
:4:- since top fig 3 back has gone downhill but Linda rice trains?
:5:- consistent runner last 3 may get a piece but can't see the win
:6:- showed up front wraps last and tanked will pass
:7:- the best horse in the race, 2nd off layoff and looks like picture taking time today.
There is no value to be had in this race but from a pure betting view I would use the :7: keyed over the :2::5: and maybe throw in the :4: for the tri just because of Linda Rice and the fear that this horse is just not as bad as it looks on paper the last 2 races.

[dkbigsky]

I like the :3: diodoro had him running well, then new trainer gave him 6 days rest and ran him in the slop. Last time out he got the lead but tired. This time he should get a somewhat easy lead depending on the:6: and wire the field. 8 to 1 and probably more its a chance ill take.

[Immortal6]

Yeesh...

:4: / :5::7:

[Partsnut]

My Projected Order Of Finish

[Michael]

:4::7::3::1::2::6::5:

No bets for me.... but if I did.. I'd likely take 4/1 on the Linda Rice horse. Would pass on the 7 as I'd never get the astronomical odds that I would want... and maybe something like 7/1 on the :3: if I didn't get 4/1 on the :4: and just wanted to bet for the sake of action.

[headhawg]

I wouldn't bet this race with real money, but...

:4:/:1::3::7:

[xtb]

:7::3::1:

[Tom]

FWIW....my Beyer pars for the races showing up in here:


Alw NW1 NYB - 80
C25000 NYB - 78
C25000 nw3l - 76
C25000 nw2l - 76


That last Alw race went in 72

[johnhannibalsmith]

Looks like all systems go on :7: in this spot, but if the price drifted up to double-digits on :6: The Great Samurai, I might take a shot.

The Great Samurai has been laying close on the main track for the most part since being claimed. But, he can pass horses and might be the most adaptable runner in terms of running style in a race that I'm not real clear what might shake out in terms of dynamics and pace.

On the surface, he looks slower than other contenders and probably is, but he is also just a young four-year-old that isn't heavily raced and could still be capable of getting a little better - even if it is just a temporary peak.

[TiffaniO]

1 Looks like one fluke race. Trainer leaves something to be desired. Toss.

2 Beat short field two back. Looks like he’s possible underneath unless he somehow walks to the lead.

3 Diodoro to Barrera? Did put the 4 and 6 away in last before tiring. Could steal the race if the 4 and 6 change tactics.

4 Last wasn’t too exciting but could rebound.

5 Consistent but hard for me to use on top. Will use 2nd and 3rd.

6 Last was bad, same race as the 3 and 4. Only shot is to get loose.

7 consistent but doesn’t love to win.

Race seems primed for a closer so I’ll be a contrarian and go with the idea that a few of the speed horses sit, leaving the closers to settle for place and show.



My plays

$1 tri
2,3,4,6,7 with 5,7 with All
2,3,4,6,7 with All with 5,7

$1 exacta
2,3,4,6 with 5,7
3 with 5,7

$100 total

[BCOURTNEY]

:4: GUICK
-------------------------------
:1: PROPHETS CAT
:7: DYNAMAX PRIME
-------------------------------
:5: HOLY WEEK
:2: LIGHT THE VOW
:3: SPECIAL STORY
-------------------------------
:6: THE GREAT SAMURAI

Heavy track bias favors GUICK's running style
PROPHETS CAT strong close might threaten

[Red Knave]

I wouldn't bet this race with real money, but...

:4:/:1::3::7:
I'm pretty much there too

:3: :4: / :3: :4: :7:

[trifecta]

I like:
:4: Guick
:1: Prophet's Cat
:2: Light the Vow

[Cholly]

Older who still haven’t been able to get thru this condition? Anything can happen with horses like this.

Last year at this time in an 8f SN1X, Leo O’brien was 0/32 at the meet, but got a slow-horse (16 lifetime starts) to place at 12-1. If I can get 10-1 on Barrerra’s (0/23 at this meet) slow-horse :3: (13 lifetime starts), I’ll put him under the :7: & :4: in an exacta.

[biggestal99]

2 Light the Vow--maybe the mud win wasnt a fluke. Perfectly prepped with a 6F even race

Allan

[Frankie D]

AQU Top circuit in racing. Outsiders almost never win first time.

Race 5 ALW 57000 with a number of horses that don't appear to rise to this level not a lot of speed in the field, usually pass this many with numbers below 80 last race and best recent back speed, becomes definite pass with any other inconsistencies that are added.

1 - not the kind of horse that repeats a win, especially up in class. Toss

2 - speed of the field? , maybe enough to overcome lack of class but the crossover from mostly sprint takes it down. it does have calls that show it could stretch out to the mile. there is that extra inconsistency for passing the race

3 - two races in a row far back but you have to keep him in this stinker.

4 - too far back last. place/show?

5 - some speed (for this race). place/show

6 - way too far back last. Toss

7 - top class this field - relative win signals but this field, mmm


:7: and you wont get near what its worth, about 7/2 to 4/1?


:7:

:3::2::5:

[JJMartin]

:7: Dynamax Prime
:3: Special Story
:4: Guick

[lefty359]

Came 5-1-7 4 was late scratch

[Tom]

:4: was a late scratch.
Must have gotten scared when he saw all those other consistent, fast, classy horses the NY bred program has dumped on, er, given us! :rolleyes:

Winner could barely run down the :1: making his 61st career start and still trying to win this bottom allowance.