Past Performances: STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purs$1,100,000 Florida Derby (Grade 1)

[Blenheim]

Past Performances are in for the Florida! :ThmbUp:

Pletcher Florida Derby: Audible http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

Looks like Always Dreaming is runnin' in the Hardacre Mile Stakes.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Strike Power could make a big jump in this race. 2nd time around 2 turns, was on the wrong lead down the stretch, hopefully that can be fixed, they say hes really filled out, and has been working great. The Raise A Native sire line is another plus. He might just put it all together.

[f2tornado]

I'm playing bombs away.

:6::7::9:/:4::6::7::9:/:4::6::7::8::9:

The :7: is a double Buckpasser-x and has room to pop a big one. Equibase figure last out for Audible suggests he is overrated. We shall see.

[Immortal6]

I'm a bit stumped here how Promises Fulfilled gets almost the same fig as Audible did for his performance in the Holy Bull when Audible's time was 2.6 seconds faster...you can't tell me that a difference in run up or track conditions can make that big a difference... Either way I'm looking to beat those two on top and I'll look to use :6: Catholic Boy and :9: Mississippi.

I think Catholic Boy gets a nice stalking trip and gets the services of Irad who just always seems to know exactly when to press that button to make his closing drive. Mississippi has already shown speed here at GP and will certainly have to do so again breaking from the outside post. His longer layoff and fairly impressive work tab are good enough for me.

If I were forced to pick a winner I would tepidly vote for Catholic Boy and hope for a pace meltdown up front by all of the speed.

Ex box :6::9:

Tri :6::9: / :4::6::8::9: / :1::4::6::8::9:

[f2tornado]

I'm a bit stumped here how Promises Fulfilled gets almost the same fig as Audible did for his performance in the Holy Bull when Audible's time was 2.6 seconds faster...

I thought same and then saw Equibase had a much stronger figure for PF than Audible. I’ll assume the track was running slow that day. Neither have ideal 9F bloodlines. The so called speed in the race is not all that fast. I too think CB can sit just off then pounce. He’s got the Buckpasser as well. For what it’s worth, chalk has been getting beat most of the prep season and see no reason it cannot happen here. We have similar wager. Hopefully we collect.

[Tom]

Audible chickened out huh?
Not a good sign.
Maybe the Oaks is more his speed! Oh, wait, the fillies are faster.:lol:

[Spalding No!]

Fairly weak renewal of this race. Several entrants feature holes in their training and race records while others visually have looked "iffy" finishing up their most recent races. The Fountain of Youth was won wire-to-wire on a fairly uncontested pace and the pace scenario hear doesn't really promise to be much different. Promises Fulfilled is the only dedicated frontrunner so there's going to be a bit of cat-and-mouse amongst those with enough pace to assert some early pressure: Audible, Strike Power, and Mississippi. I would predict that it will be Strike Power, who was the most immediate victim to Promises Fulfilled wire job, who will bite the bullet and take up the running early. He drew the rail, has a sharp work for this, and best effort was his debut when he looked like a superior sprinter.

If such a duel develops, I think MISSISSIPPI is the most likely winner. Despite this being his stakes debut, he has some stakes caliber form in his gritty prolonged duel with subsequent Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy in a January allowance race. Was wheeled back rather quickly (for this day and age) in another allowance and was quite flat early despite breaking sharply, opting to settle well off the pace. Took a while to get going but finished up solidly to just miss, although that should be taken with a grain of salt. Main rival Navistar essentially bolted on the far turn and eased while the winner, fellow FL Derby entrant Storm Runner, looked horrific in the stretch, running with his head up, bent in half while lugging in on the wrong lead. I won't hold Storm Runner's subsequent effort against either horse, as its a miracle he's even able to continue to start in the near term, but its not a real positive that Mississippi failed to reel him in. Mississippi has trained steadily since despite not starting in another race, and will add blinkers for this race, which should ensure that he is near the first flight and in an opportune spot when the real running begins.

PROMISES FULFILLED even if engaged by Strike Power, should have enough to hold on for a placing. He was wisely freshened for ~60 days after the Kentucky Jockey Club, where he lugged out badly (to the point of being checked multiple times by his rider) throughout the backstretch in that race. Showed back up in front wraps but ran professionally when untouched early, and came out of the race with a sharp work before a steadier effort a few days ago.

CATHOLIC BOY was knock down a peg at Tampa when collaring fellow converted turf horse Flameaway at the head of the lane before being turned back in the final furlong. That he won his dirt debut in the Remsen is not particularly impressive, its been a fairly unproductive race for quite a while now, and several other turf types (Nobiz Like Shobiz, Court Vision, Mo Town) have also won it. Its basically a race targeted year in and year out by the Kiaran McLaughlin/Godolphin stable so that the Shiek can have a Derby "prospect" every year. Once in a while they actually win the race (Mohaymen), but that just makes the crash landing back to earth that much more bitter. McLaughlin has done precious little in the Triple Crown outside of Jazil's Belmont win years ago (and I'll give more credit to the uber-dam of that horse than the training job). Still, Catholic Boy probably has enough for a minor award here before he's trounced at Churchill and returns to turf in the early summer.

STRIKE POWER is a sprinter who has failed to switch leads in all 3 starts, the worst coming last out on the stretchout, where he labored noticeably and drifted out down the lane after being turned back by Promises Fulfilled. The extra distance and possible more aggressive handling early can only ensure he continues to regress performance-wise. Wait for the Woody Stephens and Allen Jerkens with this one.

AUDIBLE has more holes in his training than a slice of swiss cheese. He had a conspicuous 22 day break from working despite already taking 16 days to return to the worktab following his facile off-the-turf allowance score in December. Worked steadily until the Holy Bull where he took another 19 days to get it together off that seemingly impressive win. The effort looks better on paper, as he was under a drive through most of the race and distinctly swapped back to his left lead as he reached the wire while his main rivals all spit it out by the top of the stretch. Free Drop Billy came right back to be humiliated in a weaker race. Soundness concerns aside, Audible isn't bred to stay even 9f to begin with. Wait for mile races or even turf if he doesn't disappear into the black hole at WinStar Farm.

HOFBURG is being thrown into this presumably after a sharp workout. He took 6 months to reappear after a ho-hum debut at Saratoga. Was all out while drifting out against the similarly well-bred Just Whistle in his maiden score. Barn is not noted for their success in the Triple Crown.

[jay68802]

:6::6::6::6::6::6::6::6:

Any questions?

[Robert Fischer]

wide-open race.

Low-odds-Tosses = :8: Audible. He is an awful workhorse. Maybe he's simply an odd case who 'turns it on' in the afternoon, but it's enough reason to toss him and try to find some value.
:1: Strike Power. He'll take some money, and is ripe to bet against. The slow pace in the FOY helped disguise his inability to change leads. He'll be exposed today.


Possible Keys = :6:Catholic Boy. Proven commodity. Popular horse, so you must demand value.
:7: Hofburg. Big time move, has to improve in the stretch. 20/1 ml.

must include =
:9:Mississippi. Hate the outside post and he's not as good as the 6 or 7. Still, he's a tough racehorse and should be a good enough value to justify using.


tough choices =:4: Promises Fulfilled. Awful value (3/1 ml?) but he could be in the mix.
:5: Storm Runner. May be better than the 4. Is a great price. Also may not be any good.

[letswastemoney]

I like :5: Storm Runner, but I'm worried about the possibility he will just quit again.

The pace clearly was slow enough last time for his style. He just didn't like being shut off and stopped. But can a horse like that be trusted? I guess that's why he's 20-1.

[letswastemoney]

My other idea is to backwheel key :6: Catholic Boy and just hope a longshot fills in one of the other spots.

[boys at tosconova]

strike power - seems like he'll take money and be on everyones tickets. lightly raced, gettng better, eligibile to improve, and he needs to run big to secure a spot at churchill. what i don't like is he was bred to go shorter, not longer. also,..the time of the FOY wasn't that special. this horse needs the race more than FP and should be fully extended here. the question is if he can get the distance or if he's fast enough

millionaire runner- well,..the good news is his last race where he only lost by 3.5L was his best since his maiden victory. the bad news is that the race went 146.5

tip sheet-mississippi beat him by almost 6.5L and he only beat prohibitive longshot milly run by a nostril with a slightly troubled trip. lost by 20L when audible crushed the field in 141

promises fulfilled- nice horse, ran wire to window of the layoff in the FOY. could he be tighter? could he bounce? again,...the time wasnt anything special and he seemed to have things his way...like strike power, he's lightly raced and we might not have seen his best as well. but he still doesn't seem that fast yet, and why push hard here if you're already in the derby? horse go go in many directions here by design or by talent or lack of it. plus the odds will be low. i don't think he'll win the race. my guess is that he'll show some speed and race evenly and romans would be happy with 3rd.

storm runner- last race was awful. would have liked to has seen more. it was non competitive bad and 3 seconds slower than his race when he beat mississippi while being greener than the hulk. if he runs back to that race he can figure in the exotics but i still think mississippi is better and it's pretty hard to remove that blemish without good reason.

catholic boy- what can you say. he's been solid since he's stepped on the track beating top horses. already won and crushed at the distance as well. race might even provide a speed duel for him. only logical way he;s not around is if they walk atround the track up front.

hofburg-2nd race off the bench from a maiden win..wheeled right back. juddmonte is taking their chance. could he get bettre, yes..there is hope, only because of the limited data . but lets' get serious, he isn't a likely winner, and it looks like he;ll need the perfect storm for a 2nd/3rd place finish along with a huge effort. i guess if they blaze early he'll be coming. still, does he doesn't have the look and feel of a horse that's going to improve by almost three/four seconds.

audible- i don't care if he trains sluggishly or his works have been sporatic. nobody can go 141 in here with the info given. audible did and had more in the tank when he did it.

mississippi- some people are picking him as a longshot, and while he might be 5th choice he should take plenty of $$$ and people will be frowning to see 8-1. those restricted races were methodically spaced and his competitiveness in them and the time fits well enough for him to hit the board here. don;t think he'll win but if the 1 and 4 don't run well missy will be up close and will try and fend off catlick and audie murphy when they turn for home

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:6::7:/:6::7::8:/All

[Afleet]

Going w/Storm Runner. Like the jockey change. Not sure I like the blinkers on for Mississippi; I would rather see them drop back and make one run-thats what Leparoux does best anyway. Don't like Strike Power. Roll the :5: on the board w/:4::6::7::8::9:

[Robert Fischer]

Race total (r11 vs. r14 same card)
name Bris MPH(trakus) Distance(ft)
Promises Fulfilled 104 37.1 5676
Hofburg ..............96 37.0 5729


1st Quarter
name Raw Time MPH(trakus) Distance(ft)
Promises Fulfilled..23.80 38.5 1346
Hofburg ..............24.19 38.5 1366

[f2tornado]

Race total (r11 vs. r14 same card)
name Bris MPH(trakus) Distance(ft)
Promises Fulfilled 104 37.1 5676
Hofburg ..............96 37.0 5729


1st Quarter
name Raw Time MPH(trakus) Distance(ft)
Promises Fulfilled..23.80 38.5 1346
Hofburg ..............24.19 38.5 1366

Hofburg ran about 1.3 seconds slower than Promises but it was his first race of the year. He was a little shaky at the gate then ran most of the race 3-4 wide from the 11 hole, a tough post at that track. He softened up in the stretch before Jose cracked him. PF basically had a dream trip in the feature. Hofburg may not have to improve much to be in the mix. I have no qualms with his pedigree unlike Audible and PF. Maybe he folds against G1 competition but I think when you can make a good case for a bomber you might as well play it.

[boys at tosconova]

video of fountain of youth.

watch storm runner #5

trying to find some reason for his poor performance.

it does look like he was shut off from shooting a small gap vs his stablemate promises fufilled. how much that hurt is unknown. shortly thereafter it does look as if he was done early. which is troublesome moving forward

looks like he was never comfortable in his race position. and that was a strange pass the 1/4, shooting the gap move like that. this horse clearly hasn't figured it out yet but looks talented. will have to watch his missy race where he was green as well.

PF was another romans horse as well, and it looked like he purposly pinched storm runner.. the race wasn't contentious either. so maybe this impeedment hurt him more than less

if storm runner cleared does he still back up?....sadly,....my instincts still say he would have. but it's mainly because it looks like he dropped an anchor

but the horse had an excuse..and he did beat missy and has a very impressive maiden score in november

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vgTywDNNh8&t=5s

[boys at tosconova]

vid of storm runner vs missy.

nice race but storm runner isn't really finishing well at all. the time of the race could put this horse in the bottom of exotics..although 1st or 2nd seems like a big stretch, unless he pulls an irap and audible turns into tapwrit ala the bluegrass fro last year in that fixed race

http://tnetwork.trakus.com/tnet/t_Gulfstream.aspx?EventID=130578&Date=2/4/2018&Type=TBRED&Venue=20&DisplayType=1

[boys at tosconova]

more i look at audible the more of a beast he looks.

after is maiden score he crushed those restricted horses in an off the turf 4 horse race. regradless of the comp because of it, it was fast, and another big jump for him.

he wasn;t done improving as well...in the holy bull he pulled away from freedrop billy like sea biscuit did in the movie. going 141 will do that to lessor stock.

looks like he has enough speed to float out and then pounce, and if there is anykind of duel and the track is right, we might be looking at a track record and your derby favorite

[jahura2]

I like :5: Storm Runner, but I'm worried about the possibility he will just quit again.

The pace clearly was slow enough last time for his style. He just didn't like being shut off and stopped. But can a horse like that be trusted? I guess that's why he's 20-1.

I,m on board with the :5: here. Tough trip last out and I like the rider change. May not be good enough but should be a juicy price. Will use him with the :1:,:6: and :7:

[Afleet]

early publichandicapper odds-seems about right. People aren't believing in Promises fulfilled so far

Florida Derby
Gulfstream Park, Race 14, 6:45 PM ET, Saturday, March 31, 2018
$1,100,000.00
Grade I Stakes
1 1/8 miles
Main Track
3 year-olds

Total Number of Picks On This Race: 685

Program # Picks Horse PH Odds
1. 88 Strike Power 5 - 1
2. 7 Millionaire Runner 82 - 1
3. 10 Tip Sheet 57 - 1
4. 67 Promises Fulfilled 7 - 1
5. 35 Storm Runner 15 - 1
6. 186 Catholic Boy 2 - 1
7. 59 Hofburg 8 - 1
8. 145 Audible 3 - 1
9. 88 Mississippi 5 - 1

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:6::7:/:6::7::8:/All

Meant :6::7:/:6::7::9:/ALL

[Blenheim]

A fun race to handicap.


Catholic Boy is ranked 6th on the EFH, his closest competitor is Promises Fulfilled ranked 27th. Audible is not ranked on the EFH but in the Holy Bull he smoked Free Drop Billy who is ranked 5th. I came across a new rating system at Equineline called NARC Ratings where “a panel of racing secretaries, each of whom every week assigns a hypothetical weight ("Rating") to every horse competing in any black-type stakes event conducted in North America. These weekly ratings reflect the performance of that horse in that event, and the NARC Rating for that horse is the average of the panel secretaries' assignments.” Through 3/18 Audible is ranked fourth Catholic Boy is ranked eighth. Link to the NARC Ratings: http://www.equineline.com/freefr.cfm?target_url=TopRatedHorses_SMIL.htm&yah=Top+Rated+Horses&#URLToken#http://



Audible, DP = 3-1-2-0-0 DI = 5.00 CD = 1.17 (500K) In the Holy Bull he presses early, sits tight conserves energy controls the turn, draws off by five earning a BRIS Speed Figure of 105 and a BRIS Class Rating of 123. It rained before the race, Castellano said, “I don’t think he minds a little bit of moisture in the track, and the little bit of rain we had kind of had it nice and tight, but it wasn’t producing super-fast times on the day.” CD range 1.01 to 1.50 is 7.56 furlongs. Leading Sire Statistics show AWD of Into Mischief’s progeny is 8.20 furlongs. Into Mischief listed as Stamina Influence on the Speed/Stamina Characteristics of Prominent Non-Chef-de-Race Sires. I believe he has the X-Factor, I don’t know much about it, read it dates back to 1837 and Pocahontas; there is no peer reviewed scientific study substantiating the X- Factor hypothesis. His works are typical Pletcher, unremarkable; time between works shuffled due to North Eastern storms and shipping. Pletcher wins the Bull, Reb’, Louisiana and the the horse to beat in the Florida.


Catholic Boy, DP = 6-2-11-1-0 DI =2.08 CD = 0.65 (75k) In the Sam F. Davis he presses early, expends energy moving strong on the turn, gains two lengths and gets to the winner early but can’t sustain the stretch drive loses by a half earning a BRIS Speed Figure of 101 and a BRIS Class Rating of 118. Catholic Boy ran in the sands of Tampa Bay, his turn and stretch moves likely compromised by the racing surface. Shows Dominant Classicity; CD says 9.00 furlongs; Leading Sire Statistics show AWD of More Than Ready’s progeny is 7.79 furlongs. More Than Ready listed as Speed Influence on the Speed/Stamina Characteristics of Prominent Non-Chef-de-Race Sires; his works Pletcher like, his last work scintillating. http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/catholic-boy-breezes-mississippi-possible-for-florida-derby/


Mississippi, DP = 7-4-5-0-0 DI = 5.40 CD = 1.13 (700k) In his OC75k/n1x-Nl he stalks early, expends energy moving mildly on the turn, gains three lengths in the stretch but loses by a neck earning a BRIS Speed Figure of 102 and a BRIS Class Rating of 119. CD range 1.01 to 1.50 is 7.56 furlongs. Leading Sire Statistics show AWD of Pioneer of the Nile’s progeny is 8.35 furlongs. No data at Speed/Stamina Characteristics; his works Pletcher like; gets blinkers first time.



What convinced me was how Castellano and Audible commanded the turn in the Holy Bull. When he positions outside the leader he sits tight; looks over at the leader, senses and compares speed and energy and sits tight until Free Drop Billy comes to him, then he takes off. I thought those few seconds of the Holy Bull was something to behold. If Johnny V can replicate that effort, he should get these.


Should be a fun race to watch!


:8::6::9:

[señorclipclop]

$2 Tri :9:/:5::6:/:4::5::6::7::8: ($16)
$1 Tri :9:/:4::5::6::7::8:/:5::6: ($8)
$.50 Tri :5::6:/:9:/:4::5::6::7::8: ($4)

[menifee]

All about Catholic Boy here. Hand over fist. The workout was one of the best I've seen. Audible looks terrible in his works, but that is purportedly how he trains.

[boys at tosconova]

i can only see the favs here.

maybe under a couple of scenarios the 5679 could possibly finish 2nd/3rd but they/ seem like a 3/4th place finisher at best imo.

unless somebody argues the pace how is it that both the 1 or 4 will back up. it just doesn't seem likely that both will run like a turd. the 1 looks pretty fast w/o really showing his best yet as well. he has be primed to run big here.

nobody would be that surprised if they ran 1/2 and audible gets away in the back and catlick can't close in a slower pace.

the #9 might be in a tough spot, while he can improve and show his goods it looks as if he's going to have to make multiple moves. the blinks means he should be just off the flank of the 1 and 4 but does he really need them? or are they just hoping for improvement with them to give the horses a better chance to offset the outside post and potentially racing wide

i'd like to think audible will float out behind these threes but you really don't know..you know catlick will be off the pace, so it won;t be that surprising if he only gets 3rd

[storyline]

Late P5 ticket


3,7,9,11 / 1,2,6,10 / 2-4,9,12 / 2,3,7-9 / 9

Singling Mississippi

[boys at tosconova]

dale romans should not be wearing purple.

[CincyHorseplayer]

dale romans should not be wearing purple.

I kind of dig it. He could be Grimace's cousin!


http://wpmedia.o.canada.com/2013/05/grimace.jpg

[098poi]

I'll say

:8: with :4:,:7: Exacta

[098poi]

I'll say

:8: with :4:,:7: Exacta

:8: $1 Ex $25.40
:7:

[boys at tosconova]

audible ran big...track didn;t play fast today that;s why we didn;t see a spectacular time.

have to say hofberg ran big as well. did not expect that kind of an effort but the 1 and 4 killing each other when they didn;t have to is lol.....

the 1 and 4 really did';t take cash or fool the public either..although plenty got the hammewr dropped on them when the 7 finished 2nd

.....next