Horses that bounce

[dkbigsky]

I like the :4: Eskimo kisses in the Fair grounds Oaks but is she going to bounce. How do you determine it?

[Immortal6]

The first thing I look at is how the horse runs next out after posting a top (doesn't really apply here to a horse that pretty much has improved each start).

Next I look at the work tab and time since the last race. About a month layoff, two pretty decent works, so no problem for me there.

Then lets look at conditions... won a maiden 75k, won in the slop in an OC 62.5k drawing away, today steps up into graded stakes company, a real class test.

All in all, I wouldn't necessarily expect a bounce based on the above, but I also wouldn't expect a jump in the figs either based on the class test. A duplicate of her last out, sitting off the pace and having something left coming for home looks like she could be useful underneath.

If I had to choose a horse to bounce off her last race I would look to toss the :8: Wonder Gadot. After posting a previous top she regressed ever so slightly in the next, 3 works since last start, 2 good and 1 poor. Class test is a wash, but is breaking from an outside post this race. For my money I would rather use the :9: Chocolate Martini at a better price.

My picks :1::9: / :1::4::9: / :1::4::8::9:

This may be a bit oversimplified, but when I'm looking at a form it is how I quickly analyze whether or not a horse is likely to bounce. Just my two cents, good luck.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'm a believer in the bounce theory. Now, I know there are many who aren't, and I can certainly understand that. We all have our ways and means.

As for the :4: "bouncing" in today's Fair Grounds Oaks? I'm always hesitant to label top end, lightly raced, and promising 3YOs coming in off a huge race as a 'bounce' possibility. These horses can change drastically in 1 to 2 weeks this time of year, much less a month.

The part that concerns me with her though, is she got an absolutely golden trip in her last. She never had a horse really in front and impeding her, or distracting her in any fashion, and she rode the rail the entire race on a sloppy track while the front end completely collapsed. Now, she did make a huge run in the lane to win by 11, and she certainly strode out wanting more, but this is a different level of horses she'll see today. :1: and :8: are proven commodities at this level, and the :5: and :9: aren't too shabby either.

She has to be recognized as a contender, but my concern isn't so much 'bounce' as much as that race may not be as good as it visually looked. The only 2 horses in that race worth mentioning completely stopped making her rail run look more impressive than it was. (Afterall, the last 2 1/2 Fs were ran in :33 and 2, and she gained 8 lengths on her competition). Now she has to move that form to a dry fast track against better. Is she a 'mudder', and/or is she legit?

[NorCalGreg]

True....that horse has a lot more to worry about than just regressing off last.

Good post, Husker :ThmbUp:

[dkbigsky]

Thanks for the info I just see the pace being kind of quick with the :1::3::8: all going. I guess the :9: fits the closer bill also

[Immortal6]

A duplicate of her last out, sitting off the pace and having something left coming for home looks like she could be useful underneath.

If I had to choose a horse to bounce off her last race I would look to toss the :8: Wonder Gadot. After posting a previous top she regressed ever so slightly in the next, 3 works since last start, 2 good and 1 poor. Class test is a wash, but is breaking from an outside post this race. For my money I would rather use the :9: Chocolate Martini at a better price.

My picks :1::9: / :1::4::9: / :1::4::8::9:

This may be a bit oversimplified, but when I'm looking at a form it is how I quickly analyze whether or not a horse is likely to bounce. Just my two cents, good luck.

Thank you for making me take a look at this race. Had the tri, and exacta. Alive in the pick 3 to the :1: and :5: :ThmbUp:

[dkbigsky]

good pick. The :4: got close. I am alive to the :1::8: on the pick 4 But I have a long track record of not winning these in the last leg. unless they pay chalk prices.

[GMB@BP]

I dont believe in bouncing in the sense that others do, I believe a lot has to go right for horses to run their absolute best figures and when those things do not happen they run inferior figures.

I dont believe that highly trained horses need long periods of time to recover from a race.

I can usually point to a number of legitimate handicapping factors to why a hrose does not run as well that are much more factual than a theory.

[classhandicapper]

I dont believe in bouncing in the sense that others do, I believe a lot has to go right for horses to run their absolute best figures and when those things do not happen they run inferior figures.



I'm in this camp.

I think most of it is the normal variance you would see in any athlete plus racing conditions combining to produce figures that are unlikely to be repeated.

One major exception may be horses that are a bit unsound to begin with. A huge effort (especially off a layoff) might cause a recurrence of a problem that already existed.