Race 4 GP 3/22

[Immortal6]

Inspired by the thread in general racing talk about the major bet down, and subsequent easy win by Irad on Mr B yesterday, I'd like to get others insights into how they handicap the dreaded "about" 7.5 furlong turf races at GP. At first glance this field of 8 seems to be pretty competitive, when I have a minute over my lunch break I'll take a closer look at it and give my two cents. Thanks and GL to all!

[shout1966]

post the pp's if you have them plz.

[PaceAdvantage]

Two horse, chalky race.

My fair odds line:

:1: 8/5
:2: 9/5

Value clearly lies with Conquest Dynasty if that one goes off near M/L.

New trainer looking to get rid of the :1: this quickly? And at a cut-rate deal?

[Immortal6]

post the pp's if you have them plz.

Google down the stretches free pps, sorry too hard to link from mobile.

[Immortal6]

Two horse, chalky race.

My fair odds line:

:1: 8/5
:2: 9/5

Value clearly lies with Conquest Dynasty if that one goes off near M/L.

New trainer looking to get rid of the :1: this quickly? And at a cut-rate deal?

I think you might be looking at yesterday's 4th race that I'm fairly positive conquest dynasty won at 5/2 ;)

[PaceAdvantage]

I think you might be looking at yesterday's 4th race that I'm fairly positive conquest dynasty won at 5/2 ;)HAH! You're right...:pound:

Good thing I don't have a bet until 2:30 at Oaklawn on the agenda...(or maybe I don't!)

[PaceAdvantage]

Found the right race...

:5: 7/5
:8: 5/2
:3: 5/1

Don't think the :5: will go off much below M/L...seems vulnerable here chasing the :3:, he doesn't seem to win unless he gets a nice easy lead. Even though my line says 7/5, I don't think I'd bet this one at 5/1 (computers aren't perfect, obviously).

Don't really like the other two all that much either after looking at their PPs.

I might actually go out on a big limb and throw my line away and just bet the :2: at 30-1 on the M/L, only because he seems to have the best closing fig in the race, and that might be all that's needed to beat this kind of race today.

[Immortal6]

My Take:

The :1: :3: :6: look like they need to be sent hard early to have much of a shot and don't look like they can sustain their speed. The :1: with Irad intrigues me but his record at the distance and at GP make me say pass (from the win spot). :2: is a toss. The :4: looks like it needs a shorter distance, toss from win spot, maybe use underneath. That leaves us with the 2 ML favorites :5: and :8:.

Of these two I like the :8: the best, come off a good race and a decent work. Out of 19 tries at the distance is 7-2-3. However he will likely be co-favorite with the :5: I'll have to find some value in the exotics.

:8:/:4:/:1::5:
:8:/:1::5:/:4:

[PaceAdvantage]

Found the right race...

:5: 7/5
:8: 5/2
:3: 5/1

Don't think the :5: will go off much below M/L...seems vulnerable here chasing the :3:, he doesn't seem to win unless he gets a nice easy lead. Even though my line says 7/5, I don't think I'd bet this one at 5/1 (computers aren't perfect, obviously).

Don't really like the other two all that much either after looking at their PPs.

I might actually go out on a big limb and throw my line away and just bet the :2: at 30-1 on the M/L, only because he seems to have the best closing fig in the race, and that might be all that's needed to beat this kind of race today.Well, I'm right so far in that the :5: isn't taking any action...yet...at 0mtp he's 5/2....

The :2: and :3: are too juicy to pass up here...those are my plays

[PaceAdvantage]

Should have stuck with the line I made for yesterday's 4th....:pound:

[Pensacola Pete]

I would have selected 8-1 in that order, neither at the odds that were offered.