MENDELSSOHN

[jocko699]

Interesting he was brought back March 9 at Dundalk on the DIRT!! Is Aidan getting him ready for the KD?

[Afleet]

Interesting he was brought back March 9 at Dundalk on the DIRT!! Is Aidan getting him ready for the KD?

next stop Dubai against Gold Town and Reride

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/patton-listed

[f2tornado]

Interesting he was brought back March 9 at Dundalk on the DIRT!! Is Aidan getting him ready for the KD?

He will run in the UAE Derby then possibly head to KY. Gronkowski is expected to make a US prep. Not sure how these two compare to the American contenders but interesting nonetheless.

[Afleet]

He will run in the UAE Derby then possibly head to KY. Gronkowski is expected to make a US prep. Not sure how these two compare to the American contenders but interesting nonetheless.

thought Court House ran a good race against Gronkowski

[horses4courses]

Interesting he was brought back March 9 at Dundalk on the DIRT!! Is Aidan getting him ready for the KD?

The surface at Dundalk is all-weather polytrack.
There is talk of a Dubai trip before Churchill.

[CincyHorseplayer]

He will run in the UAE Derby then possibly head to KY. Gronkowski is expected to make a US prep. Not sure how these two compare to the American contenders but interesting nonetheless.

The US prep is the best pre Derby move I've seen by a European trainer. See what you got in an American race before the big dance. Smart.

[Musket Man]

If a Euro colt is ever going to win the Derby I'd say its a safe assumption that the horse will be trained by Aidan.

[jocko699]

Looked okay today in Dubai:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

[Mulerider]

Any questions? :)

[Afleet]

Any questions? :)
Tour de Force!!

[f2tornado]

Didn’t see that coming. Final raw time was astounding. Ryan Moore is going to the Derby. Good for him. He’s one of the best.

[Afleet]

Looked okay today in Dubai:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Usually those horses from Dubai are a toss, but w/O'brien training him, has to be respected. Track is juiced, but he broke the track record.

[Vinnie]

It does appear to be an all out "Juicefest", but, what a race anyway.. That was ultra impressive.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Didn’t see that coming. Final raw time was astounding. Ryan Moore is going to the Derby. Good for him. He’s one of the best.

American breeding with Scat Daddy on top. He has been a solid sire due for a legit Derby contender.

They have geared this horse for the Kentucky Derby for a while. Will be a very very interesting entry, and will take a lot of money.

[Tom]

He could have kept running right on to Kentucky today.

Beyer, what......93? :lol:

[Tom]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8QIwrw_63c

[MJC922]

That was big by any measure and adds even more early pace to the kentucky derby mix. I'm finished betting day-to-day for the forseeable future but might make an exception for the Derby. That'll be My Boy Jack for $100 please Alex. :)

[Afleet]

That was big by any measure and adds even more early pace to the kentucky derby mix. I'm finished betting day-to-day for the forseeable future but might make an exception for the Derby. That'll be My Boy Jack for $100 please Alex. :)

Should get a bang up price on that one

[boys at tosconova]

very impressive. hand ridden to win by almost 20L..

spanky may have to be retired........nah..i'm sure CD will clog his hooves

[GMB@BP]

Reminded me of a horse named Sinister Minister in the Blue Grass.

[jocko699]

Reminded me of a horse named Sinister Minister in the Blue Grass.

Sinister Minister, man I cashed a couple of tickets on him. Thanks for the reminder:headbanger:

Still walking very gently on Mendelssohn. I am torn. I loved his first race back and than of course the Derby race was very impressive. He still has to recover from the race and the flight back to UK, stay in training, than ship to Kentucky for the derby. Just asking a lot but if he is truly a great horse who knows.

I have future bets on him at 30-1, more on Bolt at 7-1,but we will see.

[PowerUpPaynter]

That was big by any measure and adds even more early pace to the kentucky derby mix. I'm finished betting day-to-day for the forseeable future but might make an exception for the Derby. That'll be My Boy Jack for $100 please Alex. :)

My Boy Jack is gonna be the wise guy horse... That usually don't work out too well. Hes fools gold... Exaggerator but way less talented...

After that visually impressive big wide sweeping move how did he manage to flatten out so bad he ran the last 1/8 slower than Noble Indy who was right up near the blazing pace?

[boys at tosconova]

can this race really be considered dirt?

this is some of the cleanest, fakest dirt ive ever seen

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Reminded me of a horse named Sinister Minister in the Blue Grass.

Sinister Minister was 2 for 5 heading into the Kentucky Derby which included a Maiden Claiming victory. He ran a lights out Blue Grass which was the pinnacle of his career and never again came close to that effort that day.

Mendolssohn is a BC Turf champ, a UAE Derby Champ, and is rolling into Kentucky off of 3 straight wins and is 4 for 7 lifetime.

These 2 horses have as much in common as oranges and apples.

[SecretAgentMan]

Reminded me of a horse named Sinister Minister in the Blue Grass.



He reminds me of Bellamy Road in 2005, won the G1 Wood Memorial by 17 1/2 lengths wire to wire. Had also won the race before the Wood

[MJC922]

My Boy Jack is gonna be the wise guy horse... That usually don't work out too well. Hes fools gold... Exaggerator but way less talented...

After that visually impressive big wide sweeping move how did he manage to flatten out so bad he ran the last 1/8 slower than Noble Indy who was right up near the blazing pace?

Anything happens with a fast enough pace. I saw Woodchopper place in '81 lol, besides trainers tend to want to peak that day and not a day before. The bonus is Kent has zero to do but drop back to last, scrape paint and hook out, if the table is set he's on the board I would guess. Nice to hear you're so confident in 3 year old form, good luck with your site!

[GMB@BP]

Anyone who thinks this horse is going to wire the KY derby, in this years field no less which is full of speedy talented types, at say 5/1 or so, well there is hope for this game yet I guess because his figure is at best 96ish in my book when you count the field he beat and the bias he rode.

[boys at tosconova]

Sinister Minister was 2 for 5 heading into the Kentucky Derby which included a Maiden Claiming victory. He ran a lights out Blue Grass which was the pinnacle of his career and never again came close to that effort that day.

Mendolssohn is a BC Turf champ, a UAE Derby Champ, and is rolling into Kentucky off of 3 straight wins and is 4 for 7 lifetime.

These 2 horses have as much in common as oranges and apples.

i think he was comparing him in the way they looked racing, race to race.

[Longshot]

He reminds me of Bellamy Road in 2005, won the G1 Wood Memorial by 17 1/2 lengths wire to wire. Had also won the race before the Wood


I was thinking the exact same thing Bellamy Road II.

[luisbe]

Anyone who thinks this horse is going to wire the KY derby, in this years field no less which is full of speedy talented types, at say 5/1 or so, well there is hope for this game yet I guess because his figure is at best 96ish in my book when you count the field he beat and the bias he rode.
Well, that was 106, highest so far for a 3 year old.

[boys at tosconova]

I was thinking the exact same thing Bellamy Road II.


lol,,,..i think bellamy road is still hasn't finsihed the derby yet

[CincyHorseplayer]

Lot of Northern Dancers this year. Definitely thinking about betting one and Storm Cat line and UAE Derby jinx and all!

[Mc990]

My Boy Jack is gonna be the wise guy horse... That usually don't work out too well. Hes fools gold... Exaggerator but way less talented...

After that visually impressive big wide sweeping move how did he manage to flatten out so bad he ran the last 1/8 slower than Noble Indy who was right up near the blazing pace?

Emphasis on wise..... here's hoping he makes the gate.

[Afleet]

Lot of Northern Dancers this year. Definitely thinking about betting one and Storm Cat line and UAE Derby jinx and all!

What if Justify crushes Bold Doro in the Santa Anita Derby? A huge favorite w/all of these angles against-this could get fun!

[GMB@BP]

Well, that was 106, highest so far for a 3 year old.

I use a rating system that adds or deducts for trip, class, pace and bias.

it added up to about 10 points for me 106-10=96 rating. So thats his rating going into the race for me, will probably be middle of the pack but I guess we will see.

[Hoops McCann]

he will win the Derby

[Secondbest]

Lot of Northern Dancers this year. Definitely thinking about betting one and Storm Cat line and UAE Derby jinx and all!

If Loyola can go to the final four a 16 beats a one and the Cubs can win a World Series. Anything can happen in the Derby.

[CincyHorseplayer]

My mind could be changed with the rest of the preps but if the Derby was being run today this is where my money will be. I never usually like any horse going into this race either. I think Mendelssohn is a different horse and there are some good ones this year. I know this one will not be bet as much as others too which seals the deal for me. I think 4 horses can win this derby but this one will be the best price. Barring the unforeseen I'm betting him.

[CincyHorseplayer]

What if Justify crushes Bold Doro in the Santa Anita Derby? A huge favorite w/all of these angles against-this could get fun!

That would be fun! I don't think it will happen though. But tough race after a lengthy layoff you never know. Feels good to have derby fever! I try to resist but at some point I can't help it!

[Afleet]

lol,,,..i think bellamy road is still hasn't finsihed the derby yet

I remember the jockey(JJ?) waving to the crowd inside the 1/16 pole and standing up

[boys at tosconova]

I remember the jockey(JJ?) waving to the crowd inside the 1/16 pole and standing up

ohh..lol..my sides..i missed that.

i was too busy complaining as to why i didn't have giacomo but used closing arguement and pioneerofthenile.

[Buckeye]

he will win the Derby

Who is he?

I think it's between 3 horses:

Justify, Magnum Moon and Mendelssohn.

[Hoops McCann]

Who is he?

I think it's between 3 horses:

Justify, Magnum Moon and Mendelssohn.

Mendelssohn. i see a Big Brown type performance in the derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

Mendelssohn. i see a Big Brown type performance in the derby.




I see a Bellamy Road type performance by him in the derby.

[sbcaris]

Mendelssohn went six furlongs of the UAE Derby in 1:11 4/5 and he reached the mile mark in 1:36 1/5 and finished the 9 1/2 furlongs in 1:55 1/5. Therefore his final 3/16 is 19 flat. That's a very good final 3/16. I would say he qualifies strongly on that performance and if the race was 1/2 a furlong shorter at 9 furlongs he probably would have done the last 3/8 in 37 2/5.

Mendelssohn ran into another dimension in the UAE Derby.

[sbcaris]

I forgot to add a projected final quarter. Since he ran the last 3/16 in 19 flat he probably would have run another 1/2 furlong in approx 6 3/5 seconds. That translates into a final quarter in approx 201 4/5.

[f2tornado]

I see a Bellamy Road type performance by him in the derby.

Wouldn't surprise me. He will very likely face some serious pace pressure but of the up front types I believe is the one with the most stamina to hold up for a share. He's a female family 23b and those have performed strongly in the Derby... but I'll likely be wagering on the assumption he will not succeed in pulling a War Emblem. From a wagering perspective I'm hoping he draws post 19 and Justify post 20.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Mendelssohn went six furlongs of the UAE Derby in 1:11 4/5 and he reached the mile mark in 1:36 1/5 and finished the 9 1/2 furlongs in 1:55 1/5. Therefore his final 3/16 is 19 flat. That's a very good final 3/16. I would say he qualifies strongly on that performance and if the race was 1/2 a furlong shorter at 9 furlongs he probably would have done the last 3/8 in 37 2/5.

Mendelssohn ran into another dimension in the UAE Derby.

I add time on projections going longer because distance slows finishes naturally. But why are you adding time if you are projecting shorter? In fact I would say he could run faster shorter but I did the same projections and at 19 flat subtracting 6 and 3/5=12 2/5. Add that to a 24 2/5 and you get 36 4/5. I too am super impressed with his finish and the pace was comparable to the American preps as well. I'm considering a serious bet on him in the Derby.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Wouldn't surprise me. He will very likely face some serious pace pressure but of the up front types I believe is the one with the most stamina to hold up for a share. He's a female family 23b and those have performed strongly in the Derby... but I'll likely be wagering on the assumption he will not succeed in pulling a War Emblem. From a wagering perspective I'm hoping he draws post 19 and Justify post 20.

I don't think he is a need the lead horse.

[f2tornado]

I add time on projections going longer because distance slows finishes naturally. But why are you adding time if you are projecting shorter? In fact I would say he could run faster shorter but I did the same projections and at 19 flat subtracting 6 and 3/5=12 2/5. Add that to a 24 2/5 and you get 36 4/5. I too am super impressed with his finish and the pace was comparable to the American preps as well. I'm considering a serious bet on him in the Derby.


He's trying to par the fraction to the 100 point 9F races for a more apples to apples final 3/8th (6F-9F) comparison. Seems logical.

I also agree he probably doesn't need the lead but O'Brien at least suggests that may be his preference. I do think he is the most dangerous UAE shipper we've seen so far.

[GMB@BP]

I see a Bellamy Road type performance by him in the derby.

I am with you. People talk about Justify not getting the same trip, no way this horse gets that trip and the gold rail again.

[GMB@BP]

He's trying to par the fraction to the 100 point 9F races for a more apples to apples final 3/8th (6F-9F) comparison. Seems logical.

I also agree he probably doesn't need the lead but O'Brien at least suggests that may be his preference. I do think he is the most dangerous UAE shipper we've seen so far.

I do agree with this, he may be very talented, but he is also likely to be way overbet in the Derby.

[CincyHorseplayer]

He's trying to par the fraction to the 100 point 9F races for a more apples to apples final 3/8th (6F-9F) comparison. Seems logical.

I also agree he probably doesn't need the lead but O'Brien at least suggests that may be his preference. I do think he is the most dangerous UAE shipper we've seen so far.

Nice note about Obrien. I had not seen that comment.

On the fraction I was equalizing too but I have the final 3/8ths in less than 37.

I went a step further and added the last 8th of a mile to the previous half mile segment of all the 9f preps(adjusting for Mendelssohn). This is what I came up with.

Noble Indy-63.40

Runaway Ghost-62.80

Audible-61.40

Vino-61.60

Justify-61.80

Good Magic-61.80

Mendelssohn-60.20

That for me raises an eyebrow. Even with the errors involved that is no small margin.

[f2tornado]

Mendelssohn-60.20

That for me raises an eyebrow. Even with the errors involved that is no small margin.

He was hauling oats but, buyer beware, so was the track.

Or, one could look at it this way... Take Bolt out of the Santa Anita and Justify wins by 10. Did Mendelssohn beat anybody?

[ldiatone]

oohh sorry i thought you were talking about this fellow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leWMQHkmYuA&t=60s

[Afleet]

oohh sorry i thought you were talking about this fellow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leWMQHkmYuA&t=60s

got my culture in for the day

[PoloUK6108]

Any chance he pulls a Muntaahij/Lani and runs at Belmont I wonder? Would be all up on that

[LoneF]

The 2nd place horse in the UAE derby will probably go off as the favorite in the KY oaks.

The 3rd place finisher just beat the Sunland Derby winner in his last start.

Not saying the UAE derby was stacked by any means, but in comparison to the Santa Anita Derby without Bolt yeah it was stacked.

Mendelssohn is not just some random international horse that just happened to freak against a weak field. He is the most expensive horse in the field. He was bred to win triple crown races and he has already shipped over to the states once and won a big race ( BC Turf ).

Assuming neither horse drastically changes running styles than for the first time ever Justify will have a horse look him in eye. Who blinks ?

[LoneF]

Take out Bolt and what type of quality were the 3rd and 4th place finishers in the SA derby ? 12,500 claimers who the racing secretary bribed the trainers to enter the race lol

[CincyHorseplayer]

He was hauling oats but, buyer beware, so was the track.

Or, one could look at it this way... Take Bolt out of the Santa Anita and Justify wins by 10. Did Mendelssohn beat anybody?

I think the track was souped up but a sprinter won from downtown way wide. That would have never occurred on a truly biased track. I could say the same buyer beware about Justify because he was afforded the front all by himself without having much to work for it. The big difference to me was the timeform figures. 122 vs 132 for Justify. That gives me pause. The distance, the running style, and the Meydan track aren't in my head but that 10 point figure difference is.

Somebody mentioned odds too and I wouldn't touch this guy at less than 5-1. I wouldn't touch any Derby horse at less than 5-1. I think I can squeeze out 8-1 or better in intrarace exotics and that right now is the way I am leaning. Win bets at even medium odds in this particular race aren't very appealing. If you have the race basically figured out I'm more comfortable betting say 6 or so outcomes(or more) and getting a solid return than living and dying by a single outcome win bet at subpar odds. I've gotten pretty good at horizontal bets too and all of the above is probably where I will lean. The best now horse no matter what wins this race but the win odds are not great at all. I know Justify is that horse. My other win horse would be Bolt Doro. The argument against him has been finishes but he has quietly in 2 races put up some bigtime numbers vs good horses and IMO has laid a nice foundation for a W in the Derby.

Anyway it's been only about 10 days but I officially have Derby fever. I love this F2!!

[CincyHorseplayer]

The 2nd place horse in the UAE derby will probably go off as the favorite in the KY oaks.

The 3rd place finisher just beat the Sunland Derby winner in his last start.

Not saying the UAE derby was stacked by any means, but in comparison to the Santa Anita Derby without Bolt yeah it was stacked.

Mendelssohn is not just some random international horse that just happened to freak against a weak field. He is the most expensive horse in the field. He was bred to win triple crown races and he has already shipped over to the states once and won a big race ( BC Turf ).

Assuming neither horse drastically changes running styles than for the first time ever Justify will have a horse look him in eye. Who blinks ?

Nice post. I agree.:ThmbUp:

[GMB@BP]

The 2nd place horse in the UAE derby will probably go off as the favorite in the KY oaks.



I would take that bet, both Monomony Girl and Midnight Bisou wil be lower, considerably

2/1, 5/2 and then something like 5/1.

[f2tornado]

The big difference to me was the timeform figures. 122 vs 132 for Justify.

With all due respect to TimeForm, figures I do tend to appreciate, I think that 132 is a poor representation of the performance. A very soft six panels followed by the heat and, slow track or not, a final clock that was the 19th slowest since 1935 (excluding the lone 10 panel renewal). I don't even recall another unrestricted route on the surface to provide any reconciliation. Equibase gave the race a 108 on their system which is within a point or two either way of every winner over the past 10 years. It is still a solid figure considering out of the last 11 SA Derby winners there were two KY Derby winners, to placers, and one up for show. Nothing that sets this one apart from the crowd, but, this is only my opinion and why we have wagering windows.

[CincyHorseplayer]

With all due respect to TimeForm, figures I do tend to appreciate, I think that 132 is a poor representation of the performance. A very soft six panels followed by the heat and, slow track or not, a final clock that was the 19th slowest since 1935 (excluding the lone 10 panel renewal). I don't even recall another unrestricted route on the surface to provide any reconciliation. Equibase gave the race a 108 on their system which is within a point or two either way of every winner over the past 10 years. It is still a solid figure considering out of the last 11 SA Derby winners there were two KY Derby winners, to placers, and one up for show. Nothing that sets this one apart from the crowd, but, this is only my opinion and why we have wagering windows.

If that is all you got from my entire post you suck! There was more in there than this what in my opinion was a small tidbit. An eyebrow raiser.

[Robert Fischer]

A very soft six panels followed by the heat

That is not how the race was run.

1/4=140 1/2=140 3/4=129

There are about '30' (32 if I counted correctly the first time) or so races listed on the timeformUS TC Trail post, and only '6' are ≥ 140 at the 1/2.

It was not a contested pace. No cheap speed was dueling with him. However, he was kept busy early at an honest pace to open up on the field. In no way should the pace be considered soft. There was a bit of a breather mid- late backstretch where Smith slowed things down a little and then asked again when it was time for the drive.

[GMB@BP]

That is not how the race was run.

1/4=140 1/2=140 3/4=129

There are about '30' (32 if I counted correctly the first time) or so races listed on the timeformUS TC Trail post, and only '6' are ≥ 140 at the 1/2.

It was not a contested pace. No cheap speed was dueling with him. However, he was kept busy early at an honest pace to open up on the field. In no way should the pace be considered soft. There was a bit of a breather mid- late backstretch where Smith slowed things down a little and then asked again when it was time for the drive.

ahhh this makes me proud....

“I thought I was going at a very comfortable pace, so I let him open up there to open up the race a little bit,” Smith said. “You take away your horse’s natural talent sometimes by slowing them down too much worrying about the pace. If he’s got that natural talent, why not let him use it? By doing that you turn it into a horse race, not just a sprint for home. Get the competition chasing maybe just a little instead of letting them into the race. And he got more out of it that way, too.”

[Spalding No!]

“I thought I was going at a very comfortable pace, so I let him open up there to open up the race a little bit,” Smith said. “You take away your horse’s natural talent sometimes by slowing them down too much worrying about the pace. If he’s got that natural talent, why not let him use it? By doing that you turn it into a horse race, not just a sprint for home. Get the competition chasing maybe just a little instead of letting them into the race. And he got more out of it that way, too.”
Smith ought to make it clear (if he's even aware) that such a philosophy to race riding really only works in CA, where the field sizes average 6 or 7 horses and Graded Stakes typically only feature 2-3 truly graded caliber animals.

It certainly didn't work out for him in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint, which nearly cost Unique Bella an Eclipse award (never mind the winner's share of the $1 million purse).

Ironically, only a couple of races after the Santa Anita Derby, Smith chose not to use even a minuscule amount of Midnight Bisou's "natural talent" to secure a decent early position against a field she absolutely laid over. Instead, he asked her to make up an unnecessary 10-length deficit with a ridiculous early sweep of the field commencing just past the 1/2 mile marker. Hopefully he didn't take too much starch out of her for the next one. Such a dramatic--but ultimately wasteful--move didn't work out for him in the Cotillion (or the CCA Oaks really), which nearly cost Abel Tasman an Eclipse award (never mind the winner's share of the $1 million purse).

[f2tornado]

Six panels in 1:12.61 at Santa Anita is weak. That’s not pressure, it’s walking around that track. I simply don’t see how anyone can think it was good. Now, the final 3/8 was quite impressive as it better be for top class horses running relatively slow early. He does not look as good as American Pharoah. If you don’t like favorites winning the Derby then this year seemingly offers a good betting opportunity to play against the grain.

[f2tornado]

If that is all you got from my entire post you suck! There was more in there than this what in my opinion was a small tidbit. An eyebrow raiser.

Not at all. I'm merely pointing out figure handicapping is far from perfect. If it was perfect then Andrew Beyer who typically picks the horse with highest BSF would be 30-0 picking a Derby winner instead of 0-30. I wouldn't let one standalone figure alter my overall thought process.

[GMB@BP]

Smith ought to make it clear (if he's even aware) that such a philosophy to race riding really only works in CA, where the field sizes average 6 or 7 horses and Graded Stakes typically only feature 2-3 truly graded caliber animals.

It certainly didn't work out for him in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint, which nearly cost Unique Bella an Eclipse award (never mind the winner's share of the $1 million purse).

Ironically, only a couple of races after the Santa Anita Derby, Smith chose not to use even a minuscule amount of Midnight Bisou's "natural talent" to secure a decent early position against a field she absolutely laid over. Instead, he asked her to make up an unnecessary 10-length deficit with a ridiculous early sweep of the field commencing just past the 1/2 mile marker. Hopefully he didn't take too much starch out of her for the next one. Such a dramatic--but ultimately wasteful--move didn't work out for him in the Cotillion (or the CCA Oaks really), which nearly cost Abel Tasman an Eclipse award (never mind the winner's share of the $1 million purse).

Maybe, maybe thats why they grab so much in NY.

which is better, not sure, socal dirt horses have done okay on the road.