Rebel Stakes

[Afleet]

A large field is expected for the Rebel, which is expected to include Southern California-based Solomini for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Solomini, who will be making his 3-year-old debut, finished second in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) Nov. 4 at Del Mar.

Baffert has won the Rebel a record six times (all since 2010), including the 2015 edition with future Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Zayat Stables, which campaigned American Pharoah, owns Solomini.

Locally based horses pointing for the Rebel include Combatant, Sporting Chance and Zing Zang, 2-3-5, respectively, in the $500,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 19, and Higher Power, a Jan. 13 allowance/optional claiming winner.
Combatant worked a half-mile in :51.60 over a fast track Sunday morning for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

High North, based at Oaklawn late last year before moving to Fair Grounds, will run in the Rebel, trainer Brad Cox said in a text message Sunday morning. Pryor, a dominant Feb. 19 maiden graduate, is under consideration for the Rebel, trainer Ron Moquett of Hot Springs said Sunday morning.

The Rebel will offer 85 points to the top four finishers (50-20-10-5) toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby. The 1 1/16-mile race is the final major local prep for the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 14.

http://www.oaklawn.com/news/2018/mar/11/barn-notes-trainer-tom-howard-passes-saturday/

[letswastemoney]

Sporting Chance should be ready to go in his second start off the layoff. He ran against a strong pace in the Southwest.

Not sure if he can beat Solomini.

[Afleet]

:1: Title Ready [ML – 15-1 – More Than Ready – Asmussen/Jose Ortiz – 5: 2-1-1 - $101,350] .

:2:Curlin’s Honor [ML – 6-1 – Curlin – Casse/Geroux – 2: 2-0-0 - $56,220]

:3: Solomini [ML – 5-2 – Curlin – Baffert/Prat – 4: 1-2-1 - $472,000]

:4: Magnum Moon [ML – 4-1 – Malibu Moon – Pletcher/L. Saez – 2: 2-0-0 - $37,800]

:5:Higher Power [ML – 20-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Von Hemel/Eramia – 3: 2-0-1 - $68,728]

:6: Pryor [ML – 30-1 – Paynter – Moquett/Albarado – 4: 1-0-1 - $54,886]

:7: Sporting Chance [ML – 3-1 – Tiznow – Lukas/J. Velazquez – 4: 2-1-1 - $319,140]

:8: High North [ML – 20-1 – Midnight Lute– Cox/G. Stevens – 5: 1-1-0 - $73,350]

:9: Zing Zang [ML – 20-1 – Tapit – Asmussen/Lanerie – 5: 1-0-0 - $49,845]

:10: Combatant [ML – 10-1 – Scat Daddy – Asmussen/Santana, Jr. – 5: 1-3-0 - $248,550]

:11: Bode’s Maker [ML – 30-1 – Bodemeister – Milligan/Loveberry – 9: 1-2-1 - $67,272]

Did Saez hop off Sporting Chance to ride Magnum Moon? Curlin's Honor went for $1.5 million at the sales; Geroux must have came for a reason. Baffert owns this race, Prat in to ride. Asmussen w/3 in the field. Higher Power out of a Seattle Slew mare-don't see that everyday. Magnum Moon ran 1 40 yards in 1:39@TAM, equaled the best 3 year time at the distance. Combatant always right there w/leading rider aboard.

[Afleet]

Interesting stat from horseracingnation:

Since 2000, the Rebel has produced two Kentucky Derby winners, five 3-year-old champions and two Horse of the Years. Rebel participants have an overall record of 50: 3-2-3 in the Run for the Roses.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I truly believe Solomini could very well be as good as Bolt and McKinzie....

[f2tornado]

I truly believe Solomini could very well be as good as Bolt and McKinzie....

He has already crossed the line in front of both. Has the figures to blow this field apart but there's often one or two that pop in these races. Title Ready might be one to hit the board for a price. He gets a red hot rail, Ortiz, and Asmussen's zapper. Also has Buckpasser-x. I'm skeptical he can win but I'll definitely play in the trifecta.

[storyline]

He has already crossed the line in front of both. Has the figures to blow this field apart but there's often one or two that pop in these races. Title Ready might be one to hit the board for a price. He gets a red hot rail, Ortiz, and Asmussen's zapper. Also has Buckpasser-x. I'm skeptical he can win but I'll definitely play in the trifecta.

Difficult to disagree with anything in your post:ThmbUp:

The only thing against Title Ready in the Rebel is his running style, he'll likely be part of what should be a solid pace though I expect him run well.

If someone is looking to upset Solomini, Magnum Moon would appear as the most likely though there are a couple others in here who will will run new tops by lots imho

[Afleet]

He has already crossed the line in front of both. Has the figures to blow this field apart but there's often one or two that pop in these races. Title Ready might be one to hit the board for a price. He gets a red hot rail, Ortiz, and Asmussen's zapper. Also has Buckpasser-x. I'm skeptical he can win but I'll definitely play in the trifecta.

Title Ready has that Phipps breeding on the bottom-always a good sign. Ortiz will lower the odds, seems like an underlay

[Bennie]

Just read the Paulick report picks Title Ready. Don't follow him closely but is this a good thing or bad thing?

[Fred Mertz]

Just read the Paulick report picks Title Ready.

Bennie, I do better when I pick my own losers and I will confess that I read too many "expert" opinions.

Pick your own winner. Solomini here for reasons unexplained...my method would freak you out.

[Bennie]

Fred - I was not planning on using Paulicks selections. I was just curious as to whether his selections are a curse like so many other "experts". I have found certain "selectors" can lead to a automatic toss in my opinion. Not always wrong but more so than not. it is like when they feature a certain horse on the front of the DRF and sure enough that horse gets beat. Has saved me money many times.

[GMB@BP]

This is an interesting race. Not sure which rider is the most aggressive, I think Sporting Chance has the most early speed but wont be suprised if others go.

I thought Combatant got a brilliant ride last time in a collapsing race and still lose, I feel like he will be overbet.

Sporting Chance was close to the wicked pace but was on the gold rail most of the race so I am mixed there.

Solomini is playing catch up in my opinion and at 3/2 ML has to be played against.

I guess that leaves Pletcher and Title Ready.

8/1 on Title Ready seems fair enough, he has to jump up slightly on figures but there may be a chance decent chance.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:1::2::3::4::7::10: are the "logicals", but I'm far from logical.

Going bombing with the :8: High North.

They've had pretty high aspirations for this one, and while he hasn't ran horrible, he hasn't ran a big one yet either. 2nd race as a 3YO, and looking for obvious massive improvement with the Cox/Stevens connections.

He was a bit trapped and a bit in tight on the rail in the Risen Star, so some room outside may be what he needs as he was closing in what is obviously a key race in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club last November. A race that has now produced Derby trail winners in Enticed, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Bravazo as 3YOs.

[storyline]

:1::2::3::4::7::10: are the "logicals", but I'm far from logical.

Going bombing with the :8: High North.

They've had pretty high aspirations for this one, and while he hasn't ran horrible, he hasn't ran a big one yet either. 2nd race as a 3YO, and looking for obvious massive improvement with the Cox/Stevens connections.

He was a bit trapped and a bit in tight on the rail in the Risen Star, so some room outside may be what he needs as he was closing in what is obviously a key race in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club last November. A race that has now produced Derby trail winners in Enticed, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Bravazo as 3YOs.

Yeah :8:High North is flying under the radar and likely to go off at big odds 15-1 range.

He's very well bred and is capable of running 3rd or 4th here, I thought his last race was a bit underwhelming but he should fire his best race to date tomorrow, time is running out.

Frankly I'd be surprised to see him win the Rebel but he's a useful horse in the exotic pools.

[f2tornado]

Frankly I'd be surprised to see him win the Rebel but he's a useful horse in the exotic pools.

I think there are better here but I will probably use this one on the bottom of a couple of dime super bets. I like seeing Mr.P on top. Many of the prep upsets have featured a Mr. P top line. It also seems like middling horses at Fair Grounds pop elsewhere. Nothing to dislike on the J/T side either.

[storyline]

I think there are better here but I will probably use this one on the bottom of a couple of dime super bets. I like seeing Mr.P on top. Many of the prep upsets have featured a Mr. P top line. It also seems like middling horses at Fair Grounds pop elsewhere. Nothing to dislike on the J/T side either.

I think :8: High North is capable of running a 99-100 Beyer tomorrow which puts him right in the mix.

The biggest question for me is how tight are the screws on :3: Solomini, if he's my horse I might only have him at 90% or so which makes him vulnerable.

From a wagering standpoint I like :4: Magnum Moon on top with others behind in the supers.

For tomorrow's race I have them rated beginning from top-down and there isn't much daylight between them, this is a very solid field and no one should discount the depth of field here imho.

:3:
:4:
:1:
:8:
:2:
:10:
:7:

[f2tornado]

:3:
:4:
:1:
:8:
:2:
:10:
:7:

We're on the same wavelength. That's almost identical to my sorting. No boxcar payoff with that result but not straight chalk either.

[clicknow]

Solomeni has not raced since december of last year. That makes him vulnerable. High North has improving figs so I guess that makes him the "wise guy" horse...Cox at Oaklawn in a route is mega dangerous. He has about a 30% win rate at the track. I would put Magnum Moon as a key but I dunno about Saez at Oaklawn. He won 3 G3s this year, but they are all at Gulfstream and not anything over a mile. I think I'd take Lanerie over him? (Zing Zang is a big hunk of gorgeous). The only "given" is that 1 of Asmussen's will make it into the tri since he has 3 entered, is one of top trainers at OP and has OPs top rider on one and Ortiz on another.

I get more conflicted every time I look at this race. :pound:

[clicknow]

Title Ready has that Phipps breeding on the bottom-always a good sign

So does Zing Zang.

[Afleet]

So does Zing Zang.

I like Zing Zang but think he needs a 1 1/8. I think Solomini goes which may force the Title ready to go also. Title Ready 2nd time blinkers. Curlins Honor stretching out from 6F-wouldn't shock me to see him go as well. Magnum Moon may get a sweet trip saving ground. Sporting Chance may get hung out to dry. I like High North even though I don't like Midnight Lute's routing generally. Like Husker said, Cox high percentage trainer, 2nd off, 3rd dam threw Eliza, odds should be good.

[clicknow]

I like Zing Zang but think he needs a 1 1/8.

That is why I'm hoping he gets in the derby gate. But that come from behind style from post 9 is gonna be tough at OP.

Curlins Honor stretching out from 6F-wouldn't shock me to see him go as well.

Did you see his auction price? Over a mil

Cappin this on "performance" is kinda a lost cause. None of these have accomplished a whole lot, which is why it's a good race......see what shakes out.

[Afleet]

That is why I'm hoping he gets in the derby gate. But that come from behind style from post 9 is gonna be tough at OP.



Did you see his auction price? Over a mil

Cappin this on "performance" is kinda a lost cause. None of these have accomplished a whole lot, which is why it's a good race......see what shakes out.

I'm not overly confident about this race, bets will probably be minimal. If Zing Zang can just run 3rd here and I think he can hit the board in the Ark Derby-that should be enough to get him to the derby

[Afleet]

Oaklawn Park, Race 10, 6:15 PM CT, Saturday, March 17, 2018
$900,000.00
Grade II Stakes
1 1/16 miles
Main Track
3 year-olds

Total Number of Picks On This Race: 665

Program # Picks Horse PH Odds
1. 66 Title Ready 7 - 1
2. 82 Curlin's Honor 5 - 1
3. 173 Solomini 2 - 1
4. 88 Magnum Moon 5 - 1
5. 16 Higher Power 34 - 1
6. 6 Pryor 93 - 1
7. 126 Sporting Chance 7 - 2
8. 37 High North 14 - 1
9. 15 Zing Zang 36 - 1
10. 52 Combatant 9 - 1
11. 4 Bode's Maker 140 - 1

[Tom]

Combatant, best Beyer at the track, classic pattern of a layoff - two good race, both tops, then a regression. Ready for a new top. Ala Point Given.

[Robert Fischer]

race starts with :3: SOLOMINI.
'His' race is better than anyone here can run. He has flaws. He can be soft on the second turn. He can get stuck on the left lead. However, he can do all that on a hot pace and then somehow not get tired like the others and win the gallop-out.
No value in this guy, and I don't trust him as a 'lock' or near-lock. Still plenty of fun left in the race and a chance to gamble that you can beat him if that's what you want.

:10: COMBATANT is probably the 2nd most likely winner. 4th choice on the ML, so there could be some value. He's not going to run a triple digit Beyer, so he will need SOLOMINI to hang.

:2: CURLIN'S HONOR is my long shot. He's 'too slow', but he stretches out here and hopes to trip-into/inherit contending position. Fundamentally sound, and he has a willing response in the lane.

Not high on :4: or :7: in terms of value, but you have to respect them underneath. :4: MAGNUM MOON has upside, and has a long shot chance of being a Grade 1 type of horse who runs a big race. It's more likely that he will not make an impact. As a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.

:9: ZING ZANG is the kind of horse you consider keying on the bottom of a Tri or Superfecta, and building backwards. In a race that could be short on value, he adds another option.

[storyline]

race starts with :3: SOLOMINI.
'His' race is better than anyone here can run. He has flaws. He can be soft on the second turn. He can get stuck on the left lead. However, he can do all that on a hot pace and then somehow not get tired like the others and win the gallop-out.
No value in this guy, and I don't trust him as a 'lock' or near-lock. Still plenty of fun left in the race and a chance to gamble that you can beat him if that's what you want.

:10: COMBATANT is probably the 2nd most likely winner. 4th choice on the ML, so there could be some value. He's not going to run a triple digit Beyer, so he will need SOLOMINI to hang.

:2: CURLIN'S HONOR is my long shot. He's 'too slow', but he stretches out here and hopes to trip-into/inherit contending position. Fundamentally sound, and he has a willing response in the lane.

Not high on :4: or :7: in terms of value, but you have to respect them underneath. :4: MAGNUM MOON has upside, and has a long shot chance of being a Grade 1 type of horse who runs a big race. It's more likely that he will not make an impact. As a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.

:9: ZING ZANG is the kind of horse you consider keying on the bottom of a Tri or Superfecta, and building backwards. In a race that could be short on value, he adds another option.

You write the following contradictions - Not high on in terms of value, then - respect underneath, then - has upside, then - has a longshot chance of being a grade 1, then - will not make an impact, finally - as a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.

You're a little hard to take serious and I'm being kind. Not once do you give the reader any justification for your random opinions of any horses anywhere in the post.

I suspect after the race you'll boldly type - as a fan I was ecstatic at watching him draw away from the field .

Robert, please tell me you had a few "pops" before you posted :)

[Robert Fischer]

You write the following contradictions - Not high on in terms of value, then - respect underneath, then - has upside, then - has a longshot chance of being a grade 1, then - will not make an impact, finally - as a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.

Although I don't like the tone, nor 100% trust the sincerity of your post, I will be a good sport and try to expound upon what wasn't a very clear piece of writing.


Not high on :4: or :7: in terms of value, but you have to respect them underneath.
I expect :4: and :7: to be underlays. Although I expect them to be underlays, they offer enough hit percentage to use in a vertical exotic (trifecta, superfecta). It's almost impossible to make an exotic wager with only overlays, and even if you could do that, you wouldn't want to, as your hit% would be so low as to reduce your play to randomness. These are the types of horses I reluctantly include.

:4: MAGNUM MOON has upside, and has a long shot chance of being a Grade 1 type of horse who runs a big race.
He has upside in the sense that he has 'potential'. There is some unknown about the horse. He's trained by a top trainer. He's built like a classic distance horse (10f). He's shown some talent. This race has maybe 1 or 2 Grade 1 horses. Maybe none. I'd say Magnum Moon has maybe a 5%? chance (a long shot chance) to be Pletcher's poor-man's-Arrogate.


It's more likely that he will not make an impact.
(An extension of the previous comment.) It is more likely that never contends for the win in the Rebel than it is that he will blossom into the top 3yo.


As a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.
Separating my cold horseplaying opinions from simply being a fan of the sport; I'd love to see this horse defy my expectations and be a great one. The more the merrier.:ThmbUp:

Good night. Good luck if you play.

[Blenheim]

Good to see the racing form again, sure has been a while.



~


Baffert’s Solomini looks tough here, but as mentioned has been out a while and may be vulnerable. He appears the class of the race but is behind Sporting Chance on the EFH.


The race and works is telltale. On 2/19, Sporting Chance runs in the Southwest, has trouble, regroups for show. Meanwhile, two days earlier on 2/17@ SA, Solomini works 5fl in 59.2H. On 2/24, Solomini works again, 7fl in 1:24.4H (nice endurance); three days later @ OP Sporting Chance works 4fl in 48.1B (nice tightener); on 3/4, Solomini works again, this time 6fl in 1:11.2H; one day later Sporting Chance goes 8fl in 1:41.2B (nicer endurance; is Lukas tracking Baffert?) Finally, on 3/10, Solomini goes 5fl in 59H; two days later Sporting Chance goes 4fl in 47B. Outstanding set of works by both colts however, Sporting Chance is breezing while Solomini is hand ridden. All things considered the conditioning edge goes to Sporting Chance.


Long story short, Sporting Chance is higher or equal in class compared to Solomini, but is in better condition. IMO, the key is the jock switch. With Johnny V up, Lukas has a Hall of Famer, class and condition. If Sporting Chance can sit tight on a fast and balanced track, should be a hoss’ race!


Finally, I would be remiss without mentioning Sporting Chance is a Dual Qualifier with the lowest DI / CD in this group, yet Solomini is also a DQ, but with higher DI / CD. Pedigree and performance will always matter. We’ll see how it shakes out in the Reb’.


Should be a fun race to watch! Get em’ Johnny V!




:7::3::10:

[Tom]

You're a little hard to take serious and I'm being kind. Not once do you give the reader any justification for your random opinions of any horses anywhere in the post.

I suspect after the race you'll boldly type - as a fan I was ecstatic at watching him draw away from the field .

Robert, please tell me you had a few "pops" before you posted :)[/QUOTE]

1. It is not his responsibility to justify anything to you or anyone else - they are HIS opinions and many of us here both enjoy reading them and look forward to them

2. Roberts NEVER redboards. If you took the time to read some his posts you would know that before you make an ass of yourself by suggesting it.

3. Good thing we are not at the track, or YOU would probably get a few "pops." :)

[PhantomOnTour]

Combatant, best Beyer at the track, classic pattern of a layoff - two good race, both tops, then a regression. Ready for a new top. Ala Point Given.

Sorry to mush ya buddy but I feel the same way. He's ready to move forward today...8-1 ML is just fine with me

[storyline]

You're a little hard to take serious and I'm being kind. Not once do you give the reader any justification for your random opinions of any horses anywhere in the post.

I suspect after the race you'll boldly type - as a fan I was ecstatic at watching him draw away from the field .

Robert, please tell me you had a few "pops" before you posted :)

1. It is not his responsibility to justify anything to you or anyone else - they are HIS opinions and many of us here both enjoy reading them and look forward to them

2. Roberts NEVER redboards. If you took the time to read some his posts you would know that before you make an ass of yourself by suggesting it.

3. Good thing we are not at the track, or YOU would probably get a few "pops." :)[/QUOTE]

----------------------------------------------------------------

I read his post twice and all I could clearly decipher was he liked :9: Zing Zang to finish on the bottom of a tri or super which is cool, everyone has an opinion which is fantastic.

Wagering is about solid opinions and when players find themselves with differing opinions about the same horse maybe that's a race to watch imho. That's kind of what my original post was about.

His reply to me I didn't get through to be honest but I don't mean any ill will towards Robert at all and look forward to future post from him.

FYI you're my favorite poster Tom and first pops are on me.:)

[Michael]

First race I've capped in a very long time. Sadly I have nothing to write home about with regards to value.

It looks like a solid race to watch though. Pass for me. That said, I like the Pletcher horse... just not at 7/2.

[Robert Fischer]

Exotic gimmick for the Rebel.

I looked at this race, and I can't come up with much value in a conventional way.

Solomini figures to get hammered, and he's my top pick. Combatant is my next choice, but that's hardly a recipe for a score.

My biggest concern about Combatant is that he'll be forced to race wide, and either drop back again as he had to in the Southwest, or have to work hard out of the gate on the run to the first turn.

Maybe the outside posts will be at a disadvantage in this race? Maybe :1: or :2: can use their inside draw and their tactical speed to sit a dream trip?

Solomini to win. I'll roll the dice that an inside post bias will help the decently priced :1:Title Ready or the :2: Curlin's Honor to fill out the superfecta.



TICKET 1
$0.10 SU :3:
$0.10 SU :1::2:
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Wager Total $8.40

TICKET 2
$0.10 SU :3:
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
$0.10 SU :1::2:
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Wager Total $8.40

TICKET 3
$0.10 SU :3:
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.10 SU :1::2:
Wager Total $8.40

[jocko699]

While I so respect Solomini a great deal I think this race sets up perfectly for :7: Sporting Chance. I will put a bill to W/P on him.

GL

[bugboy]

short n sweet

3-10-1-4

[Tee]

Time for :1: Title Ready to show the ability to move on along the triple crown trail.

Be interesting to see what kind of trip :10: Combatant can work out from the outside post position. Winning doesn't appear to be his thing, picking up the pieces could be something to key around.

[GMB@BP]

sounds like if the 1 wins most of the board would be pretty happy, we can have a group hug if he loses

[Michael]

It's 5 minutes to post. It maybe just me... everything's over bet... at these prices I'd rather bet the 2 horse then take odds on other horses that can't even beat the rake.

[Aerocraft67]

I like :5: for a piece.

[GMB@BP]

Nice win there for the Magnum Moon, pace seemed legit and he won the race when it counted, out of the turn. I thought given Solomini was probably a tad short in this race he ran pretty dang well.

[storyline]

Difficult to disagree with anything in your post:ThmbUp:

The only thing against Title Ready in the Rebel is his running style, he'll likely be part of what should be a solid pace though I expect him run well.

If someone is looking to upset Solomini, Magnum Moon would appear as the most likely though there are a couple others in here who will will run new tops by lots imho

:4: Magnum Moon wins convincingly @ 3-1

[Tom]

Combatant, best Beyer at the track, classic pattern of a layoff - two good race, both tops, then a regression. Ready for a new top. Ala Point Given.

All he needed was a rider.
The lead weights were more of a help.:bang:

[Robert Fischer]

Nice race by the winner. Looks like we have another player in the 3yo division. Going to be a nice Arkansas Derby (is that next for Magnum Moon?)

Combatant ran well also. Horses like Combatant and High North seemed to opt to avoid attending the pace out of the gate for fear getting hung wide into the first turn.

Hard to believe Solomini ran 2nd from that poor visual performance. Baffert sure gets a lot out of his horses.

Sporting Chance ran OK. He was slightly wide.

[Mulerider]

short n sweet

3-10-1-4

My rankings were very close to yours: 3-10-4-1. Went with the 10 in a WP tourney.

Only thing I won on that race was a "coffee bet" with my buddy...I bet him my 10 would beat his 1. And I even had to sweat that for a while!

[f2tornado]

Equibase score for the winner is a 109. This compares to 107 for American Pharoah and highest since Will Take Charge snared a 111. The difference between this run and AP is AP got faster as the race went on while Moon got a little slower each split. Justify’s race was similar in getting slower each split. To me suggests neither a lock in the Ark.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Justiify > Magnum Moon - I dont consider it close...

[Musket Man]

Magnum appears to be one of those TAP's that will run up the track next out. Lots to play against next out to me. He was hot entering the gate, had a dream trip and was green in the stretch. Saez rode him pretty hard as well, slow late.

Solo appears to be one paced, something that isn't bad at 10f's. No, I'm not putting him in winners circle on first Saturday in May. He didn't like being down inside, and was stuck behind a wall of horses for most of race. Prat tried to dive to rail, but angled back out and was running at the end. He dug in, which is a sign of a horse that won't quit. Does he have his knocks, no q, but I'll take Solo out of this race over Moon all day. He has that Mor Spirit look to him. By Curlin, so he should improve, with RAN on top, but he'll need to move up next out, no question.

Sporting Chance is a sprinter. I thought that going in and it certainly cemented what I thought post race.

Combatant is a nibbler. He'll need a pace melt down, in order to win, useful type under in the Derby if he makes the gate.

All in all, after one day, I'm not sure this will be a key race moving forward to the first Saturday in May.

[Immortal6]

Solomini reminds me of Irap (RIP) from last year a bit. Seems to be a plodder type that just won't quit, but his inability to switch leads or show much turn of foot entering the stretch limits his upside in winning these bigger races. I could certainly be wrong, but as of right now I don't think I could bet him in the win spot at a race longer than a mile unless he meets up with a weak field.

[GMB@BP]

Equibase score for the winner is a 109. This compares to 107 for American Pharoah and highest since Will Take Charge snared a 111. The difference between this run and AP is AP got faster as the race went on while Moon got a little slower each split. Justify’s race was similar in getting slower each split. To me suggests neither a lock in the Ark.

What is this this, turf racing?

So let me get this straight, the ideal situation is a for a slow pace that allows a horse to be able to run faster as the race goes on?

Not for me, I wont say the opposite is best on dirt because obviously finishing is important but I want fast paces and solid finishes.

[cj]

Equibase score for the winner is a 109. This compares to 107 for American Pharoah and highest since Will Take Charge snared a 111. The difference between this run and AP is AP got faster as the race went on while Moon got a little slower each split. Justify’s race was similar in getting slower each split. To me suggests neither a lock in the Ark.

The fact Equibase had Will Take Charge faster than American Pharoah at the same point in their careers tells you a lot about the figures.

[cj]

All he needed was a rider.
The lead weights were more of a help.:bang:

I actually bet the winner but also had a 4-10 exacta box. I'm starting to think Combatant is a big time hanger.

[f2tornado]

What is this this, turf racing?

So let me get this straight, the ideal situation is a for a slow pace that allows a horse to be able to run faster as the race goes on?

Not for me, I wont say the opposite is best on dirt because obviously finishing is important but I want fast paces and solid finishes.

Ideally, for a Derby contender, the horse shows there is some energy in the tank at the end of a race that is shorter than the Derby. Most Derby winners will run the final 3/8th of a 9F prep in 37.6 or less. Let's look at last year's Florida Derby: 23.80, 23.67, 24.29, 12.53. Steady as she goes and the final 3/8th was 36.82.

I often toss horses showing drastically slower tail end spits. The key word is drastically. Justify ran the following splits in his second start: 22.68, 24.54, 26.09. I realize he was likely geared down a little at the end but he slowed down 1.6 seconds and will need to run an extra panel in Arkansas and an extra two panels in Kentucky, if he even qualifies. This type of pattern usually screams toss from the Derby win pool to me. The Rebel has better but not ideal split times. Moon ran the 6-8F split a full second slower than the previous split after the leader hit the 6F pole in an unremarkable 1:11.26. Moon might be a pace dependent type horse. Too early to tell but I wouldn't be shocked if he gets chewed up in a faster pace. I suspect he's more Derby pretender than contender but shall see how the Ark goes.

[GMB@BP]

Ideally, for a Derby contender, the horse shows there is some energy in the tank at the end of a race that is shorter than the Derby. Most Derby winners will run the final 3/8th of a 9F prep in 37.6 or less. Let's look at last year's Florida Derby: 23.80, 23.67, 24.29, 12.53. Steady as she goes and the final 3/8th was 36.82.

I often toss horses showing drastically slower tail end spits. The key word is drastically. Justify ran the following splits in his second start: 22.68, 24.54, 26.09. I realize he was likely geared down a little at the end but he slowed down 1.6 seconds and will need to run an extra panel in Arkansas and an extra two panels in Kentucky, if he even qualifies. This type of pattern usually screams toss from the Derby win pool to me. The Rebel has better but not ideal split times. Moon ran the 6-8F split a full second slower than the previous split after the leader hit the 6F pole in an unremarkable 1:11.26. Moon might be a pace dependent type horse. Too early to tell but I wouldn't be shocked if he gets chewed up in a faster pace. I suspect he's more Derby pretender than contender but shall see how the Ark goes.

You dont think if Justify ran say the first quarter in 25 he wouldnt run the second quarter in 24 and so on through the race?

They run faster early in socal for a reason, its what wins dirt races, and history has shown it wins Derbys as well (among tons of other races).

I dont have the time to go look at say Ill Have Another or say Sunday Silence's Derby Preps but I think your theory is flawed out of the gate.

[f2tornado]

The fact Equibase had Will Take Charge faster than American Pharoah at the same point in their careers tells you a lot about the figures.

The figures are subject to interpretation but then again AP ran a pedestrian Rebel in terms of physical time. It was the way he sped up as the race went on that was eye opening.

[f2tornado]

You dont think if Justify ran say the first quarter in 25 he wouldnt run the second quarter in 24 and so on through the race?

They run faster early in socal for a reason, its what wins dirt races, and history has shown it wins Derbys as well (among tons of other races).

I dont have the time to go look at say Ill Have Another or say Sunday Silence's Derby Preps but I think your theory is flawed out of the gate.

Come again?

I'll Have Another Santa Anita Derby: 24.00, 24.03, 24.22, 12.52. His final 3/8th was 36.74 minus two lengths. I don't have Sunday Silence Santa Anita Derby split times but it appears he finished the final 3/8th in 37.8.

And for good measure, I'll add final 3/8th Giacamo 37.4 and Real Quiet 36.6.

What else you got?

[letswastemoney]

I'm not going to get bogged down in numbers, but I liked Magnum Moon's win. He has a smooth way of running.

Todd Pletcher is always a threat, unless his horse wins the Kentucky Derby. Then he can be counted on to flop in the Preakness.

[GMB@BP]

Come again?

I'll Have Another Santa Anita Derby: 24.00, 24.03, 24.22, 12.52. His final 3/8th was 36.74 minus two lengths. I don't have Sunday Silence Santa Anita Derby split times but it appears he finished the final 3/8th in 37.8.

And for good measure, I'll add final 3/8th Giacamo 37.4 and Real Quiet 36.6.

What else you got?

Yes, slower each quarter, like you said, he was a toss using your analysis which clearly favors closers.

You also did not use any track variant in the fractions, which is pretty useless.

[GMB@BP]

Sunday Silence 24, 25 1/5, and 12 4/5 (opened up 12 lengths over that stretch)....i am sure you loved easy goer going into that race, he fit your profile a lot better I am sure.

[f2tornado]

Sunday Silence 24, 25 1/5, and 12 4/5 (opened up 12 lengths over that stretch)....i am sure you loved easy goer going into that race, he fit your profile a lot better I am sure.

Both horses fit the angle and they finished 1-2. Again, most Derby winners complete the final 3/8th of their 9F preps in under 38 seconds as Sunday Silence and placed Easy Goer did. Those times generally won’t happen with 26 second final quarter splits. I never said the spilt would always be descending. I suggested the splits should not fall off appreciably. Derby by theft is rare.

[GMB@BP]

Both horses fit the angle and they finished 1-2. Again, most Derby winners complete the final 3/8th of their 9F preps in under 38 seconds as Sunday Silence and placed Easy Goer did. Those times generally won’t happen with 26 second final quarter splits. I never said the spilt would always be descending. I suggested the splits should not fall off appreciably. Derby by theft is rare.

what makes you think Justify cant sit much further back?

[Tom]

I actually bet the winner but also had a 4-10 exacta box. I'm starting to think Combatant is a big time hanger.


I had a 4-10 box. Your LP leader in fast paced race.
Unfortunately, the WP money went on the 10. :rant:

[cj]

The figures are subject to interpretation but then again AP ran a pedestrian Rebel in terms of physical time. It was the way he sped up as the race went on that was eye opening.

It was a monsoon, I was there. That had a lot to do with pedestrian times. But he didn't speed up as the race went on until the last quarter. These are the fractions, incremental, he ran. The last 5/16 are the equivalent of about a 24.45 1/4 mile.

https://image.ibb.co/i8LO4c/AP.png

[f2tornado]

It was a monsoon...
https://image.ibb.co/i8LO4c/AP.png

Yes, it was wet but Brisnet gave AP a 99 for the race so it's not like Equibase was in left field with their figure.

The splits in AP's Rebel 1/4 to 1/2 in 25.22, 1/2 to 3/4 in 25.59, 3/4 to 1.0 in 24.54, 1.0 to 1.062 in 6.02. That 6.02 would translate into a 24.08 quarter. Sometime between the second and third call the horse started accelerating and never stopped. Fair enough, it wasn't from start to finish as he slowed a whisker for up to two panels before turning up the heat. The point stands a horse dropping off appreciably at 8.5F or 9F is going to have a challenge winning at 10F. AP was not one of those exhibiting drop off performance. About 80% of Derby exactas are filled by horses that have a Brisnet LP of 95+. This isn't some aberration or angle lacking logic. It's common sense. Horses running well late at at 9F should outperform horses sucking air late at 9F. The last six Derby winners all ran final 3/8th in 37.8 or less in their 9F prep.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You dont think if Justify ran say the first quarter in 25 he wouldnt run the second quarter in 24 and so on through the race?

They run faster early in socal for a reason, its what wins dirt races, and history has shown it wins Derbys as well (among tons of other races).

I dont have the time to go look at say Ill Have Another or say Sunday Silence's Derby Preps but I think your theory is flawed out of the gate.

Your second paragraph I agree with wholeheartedly and I think it's because they run this way it not only lends itself to more honestly run races but it's easy to see it makes these horses more fit for a Derby pace.

Philosophically I agree with F2 also though. An even runner or without the noticeable slowdown is more likely to stick around in the end. Excepting a really slow first half ala this year's Tampa Bay Derby.

[classhandicapper]

Does anyone know where I can find a replay of the Rebel?

All the sources I usually check have a problem with the replay. I was able to find a "head on", but no regular replay.

For the record, I think Sporting Chance moved forward nicely off his 3yo debut in the Rebel. His performance was better than it looks. I'm not sure if he can get good enough to contend with the best 3yos, but his race in the Hopeful was also better than it looks. So he may have the potential to keep moving forward quickly and may have somewhat hidden talent right now.

[headhawg]

Oaklawn Rebel 2018

Rebel 2018 recap

[Afleet]

Does anyone know where I can find a replay of the Rebel?

All the sources I usually check have a problem with the replay. I was able to find a "head on", but no regular replay.

For the record, I think Sporting Chance moved forward nicely off his 3yo debut in the Rebel. His performance was better than it looks. I'm not sure if he can get good enough to contend with the best 3yos, but his race in the Hopeful was also better than it looks. So he may have the potential to keep moving forward quickly and may have somewhat hidden talent right now.

I was having this same problem-everything was hung up

[Afleet]

That ride by Santana on the 10 was exceptional-just didn't have the animal

[PoloUK6108]

That ride by Santana on the 10 was exceptional-just didn't have the animal

Personally I thought he should have been closer since Ortiz sent Title Ready. Flattened a bit late obviously, but Combatant made quite a move.

[Spalding No!]

Rebel 2018 recap (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ee3jcwGhT8Q)
With respect to Solomini's action down the backstretch...the horse failed to switch to his right lead out of the first turn and if you watch Prat's hands, he pulls sharply on the left rein to get Solomini to switch (you can see the lead switch on the grainy head on as the horse gives an animated "roundhouse" with his right front at the same time his head is cocked to the infield).

At this stage, with 5 races under his belt and no lead changes, I think its safe to say that Solomini likely has physical issues rather than is simply "green". Curlin offspring are not the soundest things in general either.

The horse might make the Derby, but he's a marginal contender at best,
reminiscent in form of other Baffert china dolls such as Mor Spirit and Jaycito. The projected next race in the Wood doesn't instill confidence either, as its basically the race that is left over after Baffert has picked spots for his other contenders (McKinzie, Justify, and Restored Hope).

[storyline]

With respect to Solomini's action down the backstretch...the horse failed to switch to his right lead out of the first turn and if you watch Prat's hands, he pulls sharply on the left rein to get Solomini to switch (you can see the lead switch on the grainy head on as the horse gives an animated "roundhouse" with his right front at the same time his head is cocked to the infield).

At this stage, with 5 races under his belt and no lead changes, I think its safe to say that Solomini likely has physical issues rather than is simply "green". Curlin offspring are not the soundest things in general either.

The horse might make the Derby, but he's a marginal contender at best,
reminiscent in form of other Baffert china dolls such as Mor Spirit and Jaycito. The projected next race in the Wood doesn't instill confidence either, as its basically the race that is left over after Baffert has picked spots for his other contenders (McKinzie, Justify, and Restored Hope).

Agree with your assessment of Solomini as a marginal contender, he didn't look good in works leading up to the Rebel and was underwhelming in the race.

McKinzie last work didn't look good to my eye (decent but not good) but I'm not overly familiar with him in the AM.

I'd appreciate your thoughts of McKinzie last work if you caught it.

[classhandicapper]

@headhawg Thanks for that replay!

[Spalding No!]

Agree with your assessment of Solomini as a marginal contender, he didn't look good in works leading up to the Rebel and was underwhelming in the race.

McKinzie last work didn't look good to my eye (decent but not good) but I'm not overly familiar with him in the AM.

I'd appreciate your thoughts of McKinzie last work if you caught it.
I didn't see his last work, but McKinzie, despite the pedigree, seems to be maxed out at a mile in my opinion. Street Sense himself, if you go back and watch his races, was a terrible hanger, but was blessed with one of the greatest turns of foot seen since Victory Gallop, which carried him to great victories in the BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby. His other wins were rather ordinary and he spit it out dramatically in the BC Classic. Actually, Street Sense wasn't much different in style to Arazi save for the soundness issues of the latter.

Back to McKinzie, he has been brave but not convincing in either of his two starts at 8.5f. In the Cash Call his quick move to the lead was matched (and bettered really) by Instilled Regard at the top of the lane. All 3 contenders looked terrible down the lane, with Solomini lugging in on the wrong lead, Instilled Regard swapping leads several times while lugging in, and McKinzie lugging out in the final 1/16th. Instilled Regard also seems to have distance limitations, as he looked good in the 8f LeComte, but ordinary in the 8.5f Risen Star. Some of that is tempered by the multiple shipping he had to endure, but he showed no stretch punch last out.

McKinzie also lugged out in the San Felipe although he finished gamely. He was stretched to his limit and yet ultimately he will have to deal with 3/16ths of a mile more. He reminds me of brilliant horses like Afternoon Deelites, Bertrando, or Golden Cents. 10f is just not their cup of tea. That's not to say McKinzie is not a major talent. He looked great in the Sham against a weak group. He has Dirt Mile written all over him. He might take down something like the Haskell, too, if conditions are right.

[storyline]

I didn't see his last work, but McKinzie, despite the pedigree, seems to be maxed out at a mile in my opinion. Street Sense himself, if you go back and watch his races, was a terrible hanger, but was blessed with one of the greatest turns of foot seen since Victory Gallop, which carried him to great victories in the BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby. His other wins were rather ordinary and he spit it out dramatically in the BC Classic. Actually, Street Sense wasn't much different in style to Arazi save for the soundness issues of the latter.

Back to McKinzie, he has been brave but not convincing in either of his two starts at 8.5f. In the Cash Call his quick move to the lead was matched (and bettered really) by Instilled Regard at the top of the lane. All 3 contenders looked terrible down the lane, with Solomini lugging in on the wrong lead, Instilled Regard swapping leads several times while lugging in, and McKinzie lugging out in the final 1/16th. Instilled Regard also seems to have distance limitations, as he looked good in the 8f LeComte, but ordinary in the 8.5f Risen Star. Some of that is tempered by the multiple shipping he had to endure, but he showed no stretch punch last out.

McKinzie also lugged out in the San Felipe although he finished gamely. He was stretched to his limit and yet ultimately he will have to deal with 3/16ths of a mile more. He reminds me of brilliant horses like Afternoon Deelites, Bertrando, or Golden Cents. 10f is just not their cup of tea. That's not to say McKinzie is not a major talent. He looked great in the Sham against a weak group. He has Dirt Mile written all over him. He might take down something like the Haskell, too, if conditions are right.


Thanks for such a smart and thoughtful response.

When McKinzie runs next I'll again read these comments and review the PP's and video.

Not to sound like I'm piggybacking but that's pretty much my sense as well. I look forward to reading your posts, thanks again

[Spalding No!]

Thanks for such a smart and thoughtful response.

When McKinzie runs next I'll again read these comments and review the PP's and video.

Not to sound like I'm piggybacking but that's pretty much my sense as well. I look forward to reading your posts, thanks again
I don't consider it piggybacking at all, I think everything we are suggesting is backed up with visual evidence at the very least. Whether we are proved wrong is another story. Maybe Solomini will make 30+ career starts and McKinzie will win the Belmont, but I wouldn't bank on it at this stage.

Anyways, its fairly easy to point out that a horse won't truly stay a classic distance nowadays. The cliche is true really, that "none of them want to go that far".

To look at the 1-2-3 finishers of the Triple Crown races for the last 10 years or so reveals only a handful of sires that dominate the truly "classic" horses on dirt. Those are (in no particular order):

AP Indy, Smart Strike, and Unbridled, especially through descendants Tapit (AP Indy), Curlin (Smart Strike), and Pioneerof the Nile (Unbridled/Empire Maker).

Medaglia d'Oro is another classic stamina source I suspect--he sired Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra--but for some reason he's been getting mostly top class fillies (kind of like Quality Road at the moment). Not so this year with top candidates on both coasts (Bolt D'Oro and Enticed).

[storyline]

I don't consider it piggybacking at all, I think everything we are suggesting is backed up with visual evidence at the very least. Whether we are proved wrong is another story. Maybe Solomini will make 30+ career starts and McKinzie will win the Belmont, but I wouldn't bank on it at this stage.

Anyways, its fairly easy to point out that a horse won't truly stay a classic distance nowadays. The cliche is true really, that "none of them want to go that far".

To look at the 1-2-3 finishers of the Triple Crown races for the last 10 years or so reveals only a handful of sires that dominate the truly "classic" horses on dirt. Those are (in no particular order):

AP Indy, Smart Strike, and Unbridled, especially through descendants Tapit (AP Indy), Curlin (Smart Strike), and Pioneerof the Nile (Unbridled/Empire Maker).

Medaglia d'Oro is another classic stamina source I suspect--he sired Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra--but for some reason he's been getting mostly top class fillies (kind of like Quality Road at the moment). Not so this year with top candidates on both coasts (Bolt D'Oro and Enticed).


I've been playing the ponies for more than four decades and my focus has always been about selecting contenders and trying to maximize profits. Of course like anything else one evolves into something quite different than where they began.

I admire guys/gals that are historians and caretakers of the game. Your writing style and thought process is concise and accurate. It also appears you have a valued opinion at this time of year when pools are larger.

Fun chatting :)