Question for db guys

[Bruddah]

I am sure this has been hashed over somewhere in the past but I couldn't find it in the archives.

Question: if the favorite wins approximately 33% of all races, do the percentages go down depending on the field size? i.e. is the win % significantly less with 12 horses in the field vs 10, 8, 6 horse fields?

Question: if the favorite wins or places in approximately 55% of all races, do the percentages go down depending on the field size? i.e. is the win/plc % significantly less with 12 horses in the field vs 10, 8, 6 horse fields?

I appreciate your help and patience but I am always behind the learning curve.

[GR1@HTR]

Yep, the favorite will win only about 25% give or take a couple in larger fields....There is a direct correlation between win% and field size.

[MichaelNunamaker]

Q1: Yes.

Q2: Yes.

[keilan]

Win percentage also goes way up when the 2nd favourite is 5-1 or greater.

[Bruddah]

but I was hoping someone had done research to indicate what those figures might be. I appreciate your responses. Thank you.

[Larry Hamilton]

I did it, posted it, its here somewhere...Ill look around to see if I saved the file

[Larry Hamilton]

I found it..its dated but probably still true:



Fav Strs Tot Cost Wins Win% Win$ IV ROI
1 2 2 4 2 1.00 5.40 8.16 2.70
1 3 44 88 30 0.68 98.70 5.57 2.24
1 4 397 794 201 0.51 702.30 4.13 1.77
1 5 2376 4752 1008 0.42 4056.70 3.46 1.71
1 6 6902 13804 2649 0.38 11616.50 3.13 1.68
1 7 9274 18548 3313 0.36 15476.60 2.92 1.67
1 8 8345 16690 2759 0.33 13594.30 2.70 1.63
1 9 6276 12552 2005 0.32 10245.50 2.61 1.63
1 10 5711 11422 1726 0.30 9258.40 2.47 1.62
1 11 2934 5868 885 0.30 4868.90 2.46 1.66
1 12 2868 5736 802 0.28 4547.70 2.28 1.59
1 13 91 182 27 0.30 145.00 2.42 1.59
1 14 75 150 16 0.21 95.70 1.74 1.28
1 15 2 4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 16 1 2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 19 2 4 1 0.50 6.60 4.08 3.30

[GameTheory]

Reformat:

Fav Strs Tot Cost Wins Win% Win$ IV ROI
1 2 2 4 2 1.00 5.40 8.16 2.70
1 3 44 88 30 0.68 98.70 5.57 2.24
1 4 397 794 201 0.51 702.30 4.13 1.77
1 5 2376 4752 1008 0.42 4056.70 3.46 1.71
1 6 6902 13804 2649 0.38 11616.50 3.13 1.68
1 7 9274 18548 3313 0.36 15476.60 2.92 1.67
1 8 8345 16690 2759 0.33 13594.30 2.70 1.63
1 9 6276 12552 2005 0.32 10245.50 2.61 1.63
1 10 5711 11422 1726 0.30 9258.40 2.47 1.62
1 11 2934 5868 885 0.30 4868.90 2.46 1.66
1 12 2868 5736 802 0.28 4547.70 2.28 1.59
1 13 91 182 27 0.30 145.00 2.42 1.59
1 14 75 150 16 0.21 95.70 1.74 1.28
1 15 2 4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 16 1 2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 19 2 4 1 0.50 6.60 4.08 3.30

[Larry Hamilton]

thanks

[Bruddah]

I appreciate your abilities and work.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by keilan
Win percentage also goes way up when the 2nd favourite is 5-1 or greater.

no kidding...... ? good info.........

[Brian Flewwelling]

Win % and ROI are quite dependent on the actual odds of the fav.

Favs with low odds win much more than 33%. I haven't re-checked this but i believe that below 2-1 the rate jumps to 45% at many tracks

... or is that below 1-1??

Fleww