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Clocker
03-08-2018, 08:02 PM
Canada and Mexico are exempt, any other nation can apply for exemption.

White House officials say the tariffs are an essential matter of domestic and economic security. :rolleyes:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/trump-signs-tariffs-that-exempt-canada-and-mexico-open-door-to-others.html

woodtoo
03-08-2018, 08:08 PM
Tariffs work as NK agrees to denuclearize.

Tom
03-08-2018, 08:23 PM
Winning!

Clocker
03-08-2018, 08:27 PM
Tariffs work as NK agrees to denuclearize.

Right. They would have been in deep trouble with those tariffs on all that NK steel we import. :pound:

elysiantraveller
03-08-2018, 08:35 PM
Canada and Mexico are exempt, any other nation can apply for exemption.

White House officials say the tariffs are an essential matter of domestic and economic security. :rolleyes:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/trump-signs-tariffs-that-exempt-canada-and-mexico-open-door-to-others.html

What's going to be funny is when the EU gets it's exemption...

This will be a big nothing-burger in terms of policy at that point.

fast4522
03-08-2018, 08:52 PM
What's going to be funny is when the EU gets it's exemption...

This will be a big nothing-burger in terms of policy at that point.

Your clueless, what our North & South bordered countries are exempt from is to be announced per NAFTA redone or they get the same knee pads as everyone else. China dumping with the help of anyone else is over. Exactly what you did not want is going be, any country who puts a 30% duty on our cars to enter their EU country will face the same 30% here. Plenty of material for you to post for over the next few years.

woodtoo
03-08-2018, 08:52 PM
Right. They would have been in deep trouble with those tariffs on all that NK steel we import. :pound:

The tariffs are mainly aimed at China and they put pressure on NK

elysiantraveller
03-08-2018, 08:54 PM
The tariffs are mainly aimed at China and they put pressure on NK

I thought they were to bring back jobs and #MAGA?

elysiantraveller
03-08-2018, 08:58 PM
Your clueless, what our North & South bordered countries are exempt from is to be announced per NAFTA redone or they get the same knee pads as everyone else. China dumping with the help of anyone else is over. Exactly what you did not want is going be, any country who puts a 30% duty on our cars to enter their EU country will face the same 30% here. Plenty of material for you to post for over the next few years.

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

So we place tariffs on steel imports but then offer exemptions to our leading importers (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-factbox/factbox-top-steel-exporters-to-the-united-states-idUSKCN1GE10I)...

No, my friend, this is an optics victory for the #Maga crowd that likely does nothing.

fast4522
03-08-2018, 09:03 PM
:lol::lol::lol::lol:

So we place tariffs on steel imports but then offer exemptions to our leading importers (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-factbox/factbox-top-steel-exporters-to-the-united-states-idUSKCN1GE10I)...

No, my friend this is an optics victory for the #Maga crowd that likely does nothing.

Why don't you hold off with that until President Donald J. Trump really pisses on you real soon. Your patting yourself on the back too early for tomorrow and too late for today. I never believed your conservative bull, but I did think that you thought that you were smoother than baby shit and smarter than the rest of us. Not.

elysiantraveller
03-08-2018, 09:10 PM
Why don't you hold off with that until President Donald J. Trump really pisses on you real soon. Your patting yourself on the back too early for tomorrow and too late for today. I never believed your conservative bull, but I did think that you thought that you were smoother than baby shit and smarter than the rest of us. Not.

If you put a tax on an import but then give tax exemptions to the people it most applies to is it really a tax? Yes or no?

JustRalph
03-08-2018, 11:12 PM
:lol::lol::lol::lol:

So we place tariffs on steel imports but then offer exemptions to our leading importers (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-factbox/factbox-top-steel-exporters-to-the-united-states-idUSKCN1GE10I)...

No, my friend, this is an optics victory for the #Maga crowd that likely does nothing.

Unless you’re one of the 500 workers being called back by U.S. Steel........

reckless
03-08-2018, 11:46 PM
The vast majority of Americans support President Trump’s economic nationalist agenda on foreign trade, wherein the populist president is in the process of renegotiating multinational trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

As Trump signed into law his 25 percent tariff on imported steel and 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum to protect American workers and U.S. industries, more than 80 percent of Americans say they support the president’s trade economic nationalism.

In a Harvard-Harris poll, about 83 percent of Americans said they supported Trump’s effort to level the playing field on foreign trade to reverse the decades-long pattern of multinational free trade agreements which have wiped out broad portions of the Rust Belt and middle America.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/03/08/poll-more-than-80-percent-of-americans-support-trumps-trade-economic-nationalism/


This country has been in an economic down spiral for decades, accelerating with true 'free' trade Republican, G.H.W. Bush right on through the America hating Barack Obama, inclusive, thanks to the lie and hoax of unfettered 'free' trade, which has proven not to be free by any means or metrics.

fast4522
03-09-2018, 12:17 AM
If you put a tax on an import but then give tax exemptions to the people it most applies to is it really a tax? Yes or no?


Your real good with the play by play Trump hate, you will have plenty of material over the next few years. But the reality will be the shit on your face with everything you complain about, I can't imagine anything that comes to pass that your going to like.

elysiantraveller
03-09-2018, 06:24 AM
Your real good with the play by play Trump hate, you will have plenty of material over the next few years. But the reality will be the shit on your face with everything you complain about, I can't imagine anything that comes to pass that your going to like.

You're real good at being unable to answer yes/no questions.

Inner Dirt
03-09-2018, 06:48 AM
The anti tariff people act like foreign countries don't put tariffs on USA goods and let American made items flow into their country with ease.

elysiantraveller
03-09-2018, 07:08 AM
The anti tariff people act like foreign countries don't put tariffs on USA goods and let American made items flow into their country with ease.

Because for the most part they do. We keep talking about automobile tariffs ignoring the fact American companies produce their cars for the European market in Europe. Meanwhile European automakers make their cars for the US market in... you guessed it... America.

Shortening the time from completed product to market is another one of those rules of economics. Made possible by a global economy.

LemonSoupKid
03-09-2018, 12:41 PM
The anti tariff people act like foreign countries don't put tariffs on USA goods and let American made items flow into their country with ease.

This

They always leave so many obvious things out of the argument. Because things have been done for so long (idiotically), that should be our default presumption of what's right or what to do? Silliness. As if Trump hasn't proven this all wrong and his supporters right, with win after win after win.

elysiantraveller
03-09-2018, 01:58 PM
This

They always leave so many obvious things out of the argument. Because things have been done for so long (idiotically), that should be our default presumption of what's right or what to do? Silliness. As if Trump hasn't proven this all wrong and his supporters right, with win after win after win.

I answered that relatively easily...

Look at how many countries place duties on our agricultural exports. Almost none. We do food real cheap.

As an aside NAFTA devastated both Canadian and Mexican agri-industry.

Tom
03-09-2018, 03:23 PM
Look at how many countries place duties on our agricultural exports. Almost none. We do food real cheap.

They are all free to grow their own.
If we are selling cheap, we need to raise prices.

If they don't like it, let them eat cake! :pound:

elysiantraveller
03-09-2018, 03:26 PM
They are all free to grow their own.
If we are selling cheap, we need to raise prices.

If they don't like it, let them eat cake! :pound:

Nobody competes with America when it comes to agri-business.... nobody...

Tom
03-09-2018, 03:28 PM
Then stop worrying and eat your broccoli.

fast4522
03-09-2018, 06:24 PM
Your in no position to demand a yes/no on anything. I see this issue a NAFTA that is in flux with our President who I support 110%. I give our President a wide latitude in dealing with trade and people who call themselves democrats.

JustRalph
03-09-2018, 06:45 PM
Then stop worrying and eat your broccoli.

:lol::pound:

elysiantraveller
03-09-2018, 06:57 PM
Your in no position to demand a yes/no on anything. I see this issue a NAFTA that is in flux with our President who I support 110%. I give our President a wide latitude in dealing with trade and people who call themselves democrats.

Uh huh...

U.S. eases way to more tariff exemptions under pressure from allies (https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade/u-s-eases-way-to-more-tariff-exemptions-under-pressure-from-allies-idUKKCN1GL1JF)

“The president can do exemptions and my expectation is there may be some other countries that he considers in the next two weeks,” Mnuchin said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC on Friday.

So I'll ask again... is it really a tariff on imports if all the major importers are exempt?

Feel free to keep dodging.

fast4522
03-09-2018, 07:03 PM
Uh huh...

U.S. eases way to more tariff exemptions under pressure from allies (https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade/u-s-eases-way-to-more-tariff-exemptions-under-pressure-from-allies-idUKKCN1GL1JF)



So I'll ask again... is it really a tariff on imports if all the major importers are exempt?

Feel free to keep dodging.

I am not, policy is in flux, this is how this President operates. I have no idea what the final result will be so I will afford myself as much time to chew over policy that is not complete until such time that it is. Your need to be part of the resistance is duly noted.

Clocker
03-10-2018, 08:42 PM
Who always gets it in the end?

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-03-10_10-08-58.png

Tom
03-11-2018, 10:22 AM
Unless there isn't one.
I'm not sure this reaction wasn't planned.
He might have drawn to an inside straight and got it.

We shall see.
Results matters, process doesn't.

classhandicapper
03-11-2018, 11:00 AM
The free trade advocates remind me of that scene from Animal House.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdFLPn30dvQ

After decades of getting our clock cleaned, rather than observing and admitting to reality they stick to fully discredited theory. It has to be the greatest case of cognitive bias in all human history. To be clear, I was guilty of it for about 20+ years also even as the evidence I was wrong first started trickling in. But it's obvious now.

Apparently years ago, the smartest and most honest guy in the room was Ross Perot.

elysiantraveller
03-11-2018, 11:01 AM
Unless there isn't one.
I'm not sure this reaction wasn't planned.
He might have drawn to an inside straight and got it.

We shall see.
Results matters, process doesn't.

Well the moving target on the policy makes the reaction understandably confused. The EU, South Korea and Japan will;

1) Seek exemption citing similar national security concerns.

2) If not granted will retaliate.

elysiantraveller
03-11-2018, 11:05 AM
.The free trade advocates remind me of that scene from Animal House.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdFLPn30dvQ

After decades of getting our clock cleaned, rather than observing and admitting to reality they stick to fully discredited theory. It has to be the greatest case of cognitive bias in all human history. To be clear, I was guilty of it for about 20+ years also even as the evidence I was wrong first started trickling in. But it's obvious now.

Apparently years ago, the smartest and most honest guy in the room was Ross Perot.

What evidence of "getting our clock cleaned"?

Massive levels of consumption? High standards of living? Highest manufacturing output in history? Cheap goods? $18 Trillion GDP? Full employment?

You keep saying this and others but I've seen no evidence of the global trade economy kicking our ass...

fast4522
03-11-2018, 12:27 PM
The anti tariff people act like foreign countries don't put tariffs on USA goods and let American made items flow into their country with ease.

If a country puts a 30% duty on our cars entering their country it is just fair we put 30% on them, the cost of access to our economy.

Clocker
03-11-2018, 12:36 PM
If a country puts a 30% duty on our cars entering their country it is just fair we put 30% on them, the cost of access to our economy.

You aren't putting the cost "on them", you are putting it on the consumers in this country.

fast4522
03-11-2018, 12:40 PM
Who are you trying to shit, cars alone will bring Germany to its knees, I could care less that you have to pay 30% more for your BMW. Everyone living paycheck to paycheck will laugh at you.

fast4522
03-11-2018, 12:46 PM
.

What evidence of "getting our clock cleaned"?

Massive levels of consumption? High standards of living? Highest manufacturing output in history? Cheap goods? $18 Trillion GDP? Full employment?

You keep saying this and others but I've seen no evidence of the global trade economy kicking our ass...

This is going to disrupt Europe big time, forget your numbers because when we reach Y2K numbers and far exceed that period of time it will be at the expense of everyone else. Just as the last 30 years has been at our expense. This is just the very begining and you full well know it.

Clocker
03-11-2018, 12:51 PM
Who are you trying to shit, cars alone will bring Germany to its knees, I could less that you have to pay 30% more for your BMW. Everyone living paycheck to paycheck will laugh at you.

If the prices on imported cars are increased by tariffs, do you really believe that American car companies would not raise their prices?

fast4522
03-11-2018, 12:58 PM
If the prices on imported cars are increased by tariffs, do you really believe that American car companies would not raise their prices?

I think American car manufacturers would have the best years ever recorded. Our economy will explode with jobs, Trump will become unbeatable. Every positive record will be shattered, socialism abroad will go into a tailspin that it can never recover from.

Clocker
03-11-2018, 01:03 PM
I think American car manufacturers would have the best years ever recorded. Our economy will explode with jobs, Trump will become unbeatable. Every positive record will be shattered, socialism abroad will go into a tailspin that it can never recover from.

You completely avoided the question, so let me repeat it.

If the prices on imported cars are increased by tariffs, do you really believe that American car companies would not raise their prices?

classhandicapper
03-11-2018, 01:07 PM
.

What evidence of "getting our clock cleaned"?

Massive levels of consumption? High standards of living? Highest manufacturing output in history? Cheap goods? $18 Trillion GDP? Full employment?

You keep saying this and others but I've seen no evidence of the global trade economy kicking our ass...

When you are running consistent huge trade deficits you are losing.

You are getting depreciating goods. They are getting dollars which they use to buy US stocks, bonds, and real estate. The income from the government bonds comes out of our tax dollars and since they control the sale and purchase of trillions dollars of US bonds, they have influence over our interest rates and thus have political clout in the US also.

When you USED to have a vibrant middle class and it is evaporating because the jobs to produce goods have moved overseas, your are losing.

But hey, some of us bought blue chips stocks in the 80s and get cheaper goods at Walmarts so everything must be great.

fast4522
03-11-2018, 01:10 PM
You completely avoided the question, so let me repeat it.

If the prices on imported cars are increased by tariffs, do you really believe that American car companies would not raise their prices?

I think we would enter uncharted territory, our country would see the expansion of these United States uncomfortable to some but higher wages and prices. Ross Perot might then talk of the sucking sound heard in Europe being deafening.

johnhannibalsmith
03-11-2018, 01:19 PM
:lol::lol:

And to think that PA thought that it was poor old Zilzal that was a poorly tuned AI program designed to stump you with silliness.

elysiantraveller
03-11-2018, 01:37 PM
When you are running consistent huge trade deficits you are losing.

I'll ignore the rest since I asked for evidence and its just the standard Trump/Protectionism trope.

And I'll repeat:

- $18 Trillion GDP
- Cheap Goods
- Full Employment
- Highest Manufacturing Production in History
- Highest Levels of Consumption (Globally)
- High standard of living
- Relatively Low Cost of Living (Lower than Germany, France, UK, Sweden, Finland, Japan, Australia, South Korea, you know all those countries this targets)

Getting out "clocks cleaned" doesn't seem so bad. :rolleyes:

Grab your Friedman... we're rich... rich people spend more money... spending more money means trade deficits...

Clocker
03-11-2018, 03:01 PM
:lol::lol:

And to think that PA thought that it was poor old Zilzal that was a poorly tuned AI program designed to stump you with silliness.

The spirit of Prof. Irwin Corey lives on. :p

woodtoo
03-11-2018, 03:17 PM
I'll ignore the rest since I asked for evidence and its just the standard Trump/Protectionism trope.

And I'll repeat:

- $18 Trillion GDP
- Cheap Goods
- Full Employment
- Highest Manufacturing Production in History
- Highest Levels of Consumption (Globally)
- High standard of living
- Relatively Low Cost of Living (Lower than Germany, France, UK, Sweden, Finland, Japan, Australia, South Korea, you know all those countries this targets)

Getting out "clocks cleaned" doesn't seem so bad. :rolleyes:

Grab your Friedman... we're rich... rich people spend more money... spending more money means trade deficits...

Do you know who a $50 billion trade deficit favors? It is not on your list.

elysiantraveller
03-11-2018, 03:20 PM
Do you know who a $50 billion trade deficit favors? It is not on your list.

Everyone.

woodtoo
03-11-2018, 03:24 PM
Everyone.

Really, everyone. And you say that with a straight face.:rolleyes:

Clocker
03-11-2018, 03:30 PM
Do you know who a $50 billion trade deficit favors? It is not on your list.

American consumers.

Clocker
03-11-2018, 03:36 PM
Really, everyone. And you say that with a straight face.:rolleyes:

I can say that with a couple of curved lines. :p

http://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/defnw.png

Lemon Drop Husker
03-11-2018, 03:41 PM
So according to this chart, the more we can separate Net Worth from Trade Deficit the better.

What would happen if we had no Trade Deficit?

Clocker
03-11-2018, 03:52 PM
So according to this chart, the more we can separate Net Worth from Trade Deficit the better.

What would happen if we had no Trade Deficit?

No, according to this chart, the trade deficit and net worth tend to move in the same direction. While that does not necessarily show a causal relation, it does show that trade deficits are not harmful to Americans, something that advocates of tariffs claim but cannot prove.

If we had no trade deficit, we would be paying higher prices for most of the manufactured products that we buy.

Tom
03-11-2018, 04:18 PM
I can say that with a couple of curved lines. :p

http://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/defnw.png


That looks very much like a temperature graph hcap posted last year! :confused::D

Lemon Drop Husker
03-11-2018, 04:27 PM
No, according to this chart, the trade deficit and net worth tend to move in the same direction. While that does not necessarily show a causal relation, it does show that trade deficits are not harmful to Americans, something that advocates of tariffs claim but cannot prove.

If we had no trade deficit, we would be paying higher prices for most of the manufactured products that we buy.

So while net household worth was going up while trade deficit has somewhat stabilized/decreased in the last 5 years, you summarize we should keep up a trade deficit?

What would actually happen if we had a trade deficit of lower numbers. Hell, even a net zero. What would happen?

Problem is, you don't know, and thus you keep proposing a trade deficit as being a "good thing" because it is what we have always done.

There really are no real world statistics to support either side, other than, this is what we have always done.

Clocker
03-11-2018, 04:49 PM
So while net household worth was going up while trade deficit has somewhat stabilized/decreased in the last 5 years, you summarize we should keep up a trade deficit?

Problem is, you don't know, and thus you keep proposing a trade deficit as being a "good thing" because it is what we have always done.

There really are no real world statistics to support either side, other than, this is what we have always done.

I did not say any of those things. I said that a trade deficit is not the evil that many claim, and that trying to "fix" it with tariffs will make things a lot worse.

What would actually happen if we had a trade deficit of lower numbers. Hell, even a net zero. What would happen?I am not proposing anything other than letting the free market operate as best it can under the too many government regulations we already have. If that leads to a decrease in the trade deficit, fine. If it doesn't, that's fine too. Let the consumers decide.

But all indications are that at this time, a lower trade deficit would mean higher prices for the American consumer.

Lemon Drop Husker
03-11-2018, 05:16 PM
And thus a tariff we put on certain products imported in to America means you have no clue other than you hate it.

Sounds great.

Should we ban guns on those imports?

Clocker
03-11-2018, 05:38 PM
And thus a tariff we put on certain products imported in to America means you have no clue other than you hate it.



I said nothing like that. I said that tariffs are taxes typically imposed to protect selected industries from foreign competition and result in higher prices for consumers.

That means higher costs of living for Americans and it means the government is picking winners and losers in the market. And that is what I hate.

Bush tried the same thing with steel tariffs in 2002, and I certainly have a clue about that. Over 200,000 American jobs were lost and the tariffs were removed.

FantasticDan
03-11-2018, 06:53 PM
https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/972966665221787650

jocko699
03-11-2018, 07:19 PM
https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/972966665221787650

Vox, OMG. Maybe they will put him on double secret probation:pound:

elysiantraveller
03-11-2018, 07:38 PM
Really, everyone. And you say that with a straight face.:rolleyes:

Yes I do.

If I break this down to the ridiculous it becomes pretty easy to see. I work in the mortgage industry which honestly is a hilarious name "industry"...

I don't produce anything of real value outside the few coyote hides I shoot.

What I do is provide a service that in turn compensates me with dollars.

Using those dollars I purchase things from here, there, and everywhere.

Using myself as an example EVERYTHING I purchase that is imported adds to the trade deficit... literally every single dollar. Since I don't actually produce anything to export.

Free trade simply allows me to purchase goods that I deem the best value to myself regardless of where they come from. This allows me to keep and spend more of my dollars elsewhere.

Clocker
03-11-2018, 07:39 PM
Business leaders from nearly every American industry are furious with President Trump right now.

The Dems should be all over this. This is straight out of the DNC playbook: tariffs to protect union jobs. Now they just have to figure out a way to take credit for it. :p

elysiantraveller
03-11-2018, 07:45 PM
The Dems should be all over this. This is straight out of the DNC playbook: tariffs to protect union jobs. Now they just have to figure out a way to take credit for it. :p

Upside down world...

The Dems are now more capitalist than the "republicans." :pound:

Except when they aren't.

It's all quite amazing actually.

Clocker
03-11-2018, 07:56 PM
Upside down world...

The Dems are now more capitalist than the "republicans." :pound:

Except when they aren't.

It's all quite amazing actually.

The Dems are in a real dilemma. They are opposed to Trump, but that is a moving target because he keeps changing his positions.

So every time Trump flips, the Dems have to flop. :popcorn:

fast4522
03-11-2018, 08:07 PM
Upside down world...

The Dems are now more capitalist than the "republicans." :pound:

Except when they aren't.

It's all quite amazing actually.

Not really at all, establishment left and right make backroom deals and 60% of America gets the shaft election after election. Donald J. Trump comes along plowing right up the middle securing that 60% that has been shafted election after election. As long as he courts that 60% to the hilt NO ONE will ever be able to stop him, leaving the establishment the hind tit. That 60 % is now his base and they want to stick it to China & Europe, this will be and there is nothing that can stop him. Besides trade his base wants the ACA GONE, so while you guys feel nauseous about trade note only 63% of Trumps objectives have been completed inside the first year. As I said before you will have plenty of material over the coming years, count that after year two that 63% will be higher.

Tom
03-11-2018, 08:28 PM
Vox, OMG. Maybe they will put him on double secret probation:pound:

Third party tweet with no data to back up the claims.
How very FANtastic.

reckless
03-11-2018, 09:31 PM
A country will not grow and become prosperous if it is strictly a consumer-oriented economy. The 'free' traders in this country have been telling us that these tariffs are bad and we may as well point a cannon on the unsuspecting backs of the American consumer.

What Trump is doing is making the USA the place to manufacture again, and manufacturing is what creates jobs. And it is manufacturing growth which leads to prosperity, not through some pencil pusher in a cheap suit saving a few bucks on socks bought at Wal-Mart.

We've had a couple of Trump critics tell us how dangerous the steel tariffs are to our country and how the consumer will get killed. Really??

We've already shown them that a $100 increase due to the steel tariff on the sticker price of a car is an insignificant increase on top of a $30,000 automobile.

Wilbur Ross also said that the aluminum tariff will increase the price of a can of soup or soda by ... hold on to your wallet ... one-third of one penny.

If people are worried that Daimler Benz will raise their prices of cars as a retaliation or partake in a trade 'war', then let them. Then the marketplace will decide their fate. Just like the 'free' traders always say it should be.

And if Mercedes wishes NOT to pay the duty... then they could avoid it by simply building manufacturing plants here in good ol' USA. Trump didn't bar any foreign company from building plants here, now did he?

elysiantraveller
03-11-2018, 09:55 PM
...

Hilarious... especially your last paragraph.

8 of the top 15 auto plants in this country are foreign companies. Link (http://www.automobilemag.com/news/the-15-top-producing-american-car-plants-151801/)

Now it costs more for them to import steel here... from the countries they are headquartered out of. Great place to do business with a model like that huh? :pound::pound:

https://i.imgflip.com/1og7s3.jpg

Silly capitalism and the global economy strike again to torpedo your point.

mrhorseplayer
03-11-2018, 10:04 PM
IF those auto companies form other countries dont like paying the tariffs on imported steel well they can go back to the country they are from.

Clocker
03-11-2018, 10:05 PM
What Trump is doing is making the USA the place to manufacture again, and manufacturing is what creates jobs.

Manufacturing output in this country has doubled in the last 30 years. We are still a manufacturing country as much as we ever were. In terms of gross output, manufacturing in this country is far and away the biggest sector.

https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2016/03/25/Photos/MG/MW-EI736_gross__20160325123438_MG.jpg?uuid=7766853e-f2a7-11e5-8930-0015c588dfa6

But manufacturing is not what creates jobs here. We aren't, and won't be ever again, a growing manufacturing employer. Of the lost manufacturing jobs in this country over the few decades, 85% have been lost to automation, not to foreign competition. Tariffs aren't going to bring those jobs back, ever.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturing-dead-output-has-doubled-in-three-decades-2016-03-28

PS If you look at trade on a disaggregated basis, we do run a very high balance of trade deficit on goods. But we have a balance of trade surplus on services. We sell more services to foreign markets than we buy from them.

elysiantraveller
03-11-2018, 10:17 PM
IF those auto companies form other countries dont like paying the tariffs on imported steel well they can go back to the country they are from.

At the cost of American jobs. Both in the manufacturing sector and... ironically... in the steel sector.

Now what good did that accomplish?

reckless
03-11-2018, 10:30 PM
We'll see, we'll see, elysiantraveler.

The joke is on all you guys who think people don't understand now that the USA economy and wealth are being transferred to the Chinese and other foreign countries at our expense annually by the billions, as has been the case for decades.

But don't worry, there will always be shitheads who'd rather buy their T-shirts and underwear at a Wal-Mart, their household goods at a Dollar General and their canned and frozen foods at 99 cent dumps.

Clocker
03-11-2018, 10:39 PM
IF those auto companies form other countries dont like paying the tariffs on imported steel well they can go back to the country they are from.

And take all the jobs they created for Americans with them?

Of course they are going to pay the tariffs. And they are going to pass the costs on to American consumers, just like Ford and GM will do. And as ever, at the bottom of the food chain are consumers. And if they can't or won't pay those costs, sales of cars fall and workers get laid off.

fast4522
03-11-2018, 10:52 PM
Just because a few meatheads like yourselves are determined to shape the narrative here, does not mean the outcome will be as you say. In fact it is a pretty good bet your going to get slammed in policy that is going to be around until your old git's.

OntheRail
03-11-2018, 10:54 PM
Hilarious... especially your last paragraph.

8 of the top 15 auto plants in this country are foreign companies. Link (http://www.automobilemag.com/news/the-15-top-producing-american-car-plants-151801/)

Now it costs more for them to import steel here... from the countries they are headquartered out of. Great place to do business with a model like that huh? :pound::pound:



Silly capitalism and the global economy strike again to torpedo your point.

Or... Or they could just purchase DOMESTIC Steel and forgo the added cost of import tariff.

horses4courses
03-11-2018, 10:59 PM
But don't worry, there will always be shitheads who'd rather buy their T-shirts and underwear at a Wal-Mart, their household goods at a Dollar General and their canned and frozen foods at 99 cent dumps.

and you are indebted to those fine people for electing your ....umm....guy :faint:

elysiantraveller
03-11-2018, 11:03 PM
We'll see, we'll see, elysiantraveler.

The joke is on all you guys who think people don't understand now that the USA economy and wealth are being transferred to the Chinese and other foreign countries at our expense annually by the billions, as has been the case for decades.

But don't worry, there will always be shitheads who'd rather buy their T-shirts and underwear at a Wal-Mart, their household goods at a Dollar General and their canned and frozen foods at 99 cent dumps.

Meh... we get it a lot of it back in service exports which top out at around $1.2 Trillion and our 15-16% share of the global sector. Clocker already pointed this out.

That and the fact:

- $18 Trillion GDP
- Cheap Goods
- Full Employment
- Highest Manufacturing Production in History
- Highest Levels of Consumption (Globally)
- High standard of living
- Relatively Low Cost of Living (Lower than Germany, France, UK, Sweden, Finland, Japan, Australia, South Korea, you know all those countries this targets)

Those things none of you want to touch because they don't fit the Trumpnomics narrative.

Back to Milty...
https://youtu.be/59YWFR8lCEc

elysiantraveller
03-11-2018, 11:08 PM
Or... Or they could just purchase DOMESTIC Steel and forgo the added cost of import tariff.

They would be purchasing it at a higher price so the dilemma remains. Consumers would pay more for goods.

The above video demonstrates this.

mrhorseplayer
03-12-2018, 12:01 AM
At the cost of American jobs. Both in the manufacturing sector and... ironically... in the steel sector.

Now what good did that accomplish?


Because those Auto manufacturers form other countries gone, would think the American Auto that are manufactured in these other countries would get some kind of retaliation from the country they reside that would cause them to come back to America creating even more jobs for America and the American worker.

davew
03-12-2018, 12:05 AM
Hilarious... especially your last paragraph.

8 of the top 15 auto plants in this country are foreign companies. Link (http://www.automobilemag.com/news/the-15-top-producing-american-car-plants-151801/)

Now it costs more for them to import steel here... from the countries they are headquartered out of. Great place to do business with a model like that huh? :pound::pound:

https://i.imgflip.com/1og7s3.jpg

Silly capitalism and the global economy strike again to torpedo your point.

8 of your top 15 are Ford and General Motors. I am not sure if you are bad at math or just use dim hyperbole.

It must cost more to ship a finished car than to make it close to the market.

reckless
03-12-2018, 12:51 AM
They would be purchasing it at a higher price so the dilemma remains. Consumers would pay more for goods.

The above video demonstrates this.

So tell us, what would you prefer to have happen ...

consumers pay $3 a pair for socks at Wal-Mart and have half the neighborhood under- and un- employed --which seems to have been the case since NAFTA and GATT-- or ... have millions more people working yet pay $4 for those same crappy socks ??

That's a 33 per cent increase in the price of socks to the consumer, btw. The US citizen will take that deal every single day and not bat an eye even if you protest. :lol:

This country will not grow or prosper if we do not have a viable and growing manufacturing industry. Re-negotiating (mostly) GOP-led trade pacts is just the beginning and imposing the tariffs is Trump's first salvo. The transfer of billions monthly to China, et al, has put this country is no growth and recession for 10 years running. And citizens buying $1 happy meals at McDonalds did not get this country humming under Bush and Obama, I promise you. You may believe that consumers drive the economy but you a dead wrong, as usual.

Also comparing the Great Again! USA of Trump to economic shit holes such as the EU countries and elsewhere is also a joke. And, I'll bet you right now, the EU blinks long before we do, when Trump talks trade and tariffs.

Oh yeah, once again, a $100 increase thanks the steel tariff on a $30,000 car is peanuts. And the 500 union jobs the guy at US Steel says he will open is pretty good also.

Forty plus years of unfair trade deals and onerous deficits is OK with you, but let Trump impose tariffs just this month and you say the US economy will crater and Trump is a clueless. :lol::lol::lol:

Clocker
03-12-2018, 01:03 AM
This country will not grow or prosper if we do not have a viable and growing manufacturing industry.


We have a viable and growing manufacturing industry. It just doesn't require more and more labor as it grows. Welcome to reality.

elysiantraveller
03-12-2018, 10:08 AM
So tell us, what would you prefer to have happen ...

consumers pay $3 a pair for socks at Wal-Mart and have half the neighborhood under- and un- employed --which seems to have been the case since NAFTA and GATT-- or ... have millions more people working yet pay $4 for those same crappy socks ??

That's a 33 per cent increase in the price of socks to the consumer, btw. The US citizen will take that deal every single day and not bat an eye even if you protest. :lol:

I would prefer to have as many options as possible. When presented with the option of being able to purchase $3 socks made abroad or $4 socks made here I may very well choose to purchase the $4 socks. I'll spend the extra dollar for that warm fuzzy feeling I get knowing I'm buying domestic. Fact is though the laws of economics and capitalism don't give a crap about my warm fuzzy feeling. Ultimately my financial security and well-being is the responsibility of me, myself, and I.

It is nice though you brought up the textile industry and its the perfect post-industrialization industry to narrate how capitalism and the market always wins eventually.

During the 17th and 18th century the British Empire dominated the textile industry. Its far flung empire gave it access to silk in India, cotton in the America's, and dyes throughout the known world. They absolutely dominated the global space.

After the American war of Independence and especially during and after reconstruction we emerged as the worlds largest producer of textiles. We had cotton in the south with a large population and massive industrial and shipping capacity in the north. The United States was the leading textile producer for much of the 19th and early 20th century.

Since then newer markets have stepped into the void. Indonesia, Taiwan, the Philippines during the latter half of the 20th Century. China after being opened up by the Nixon Administration and now finally Vietnam, Lao, Thailand, India taking the lead.

The point of all of this is that ultimately we don't have much control over what industries stay and which one's go. You and followers of this tariff notion completely ignore the fact we are manufacturing at the highest level we ever have. We are also losing workers to automation and the ones that remain are due to our ability to produce highly refined products that demand a very skilled workforce.

Eventually we will lose those jobs too though as other countries develop the ability to produce finer products and their laborers become more skilled. That's completely fine though we will explore new industries and get good at them and workers will go there instead. Take for instance shale oil production in this country... it didn't really exist until the last 20 years and now we are the worlds #3 producer of the stuff with massive reserves.

The Trumpnomics people have this obsession with people working in Auto Plants, Steel Mills, Factories etc... They completely ignore the economic realities that those industries aren't going to be viable to Americans forever just like textiles weren't. Propping them up dumps workers into a sector we no longer have or are beginning to lose our competitive edge in instead of letting them go places we have it. Places like Shale oil or services industries. At the same time you harm the American consumer... you all admit this at least.

The standard trope then is "Trade deals bad blah blah" or my favorite "globalism/capitalism bad blah blah...."

Globalism/Capitalism isn't good or bad... its the way the world, and particularly the global economy, works.

Clocker
03-12-2018, 12:43 PM
So tell us, what would you prefer to have happen ...

consumers pay $3 a pair for socks at Wal-Mart and have half the neighborhood under- and un- employed --which seems to have been the case since NAFTA and GATT-- or ... have millions more people working yet pay $4 for those same crappy socks ??

That's a 33 per cent increase in the price of socks to the consumer, btw. The US citizen will take that deal every single day and not bat an eye even if you protest. :lol:



The US citizen has the option to "take that deal" now.

I don't know who all those people I see at Wal-Mart are, but they look like US citizens to me. It seems clear which side of that deal they prefer.

What some of us "protest" against is the government taking away that choice.

classhandicapper
03-12-2018, 01:09 PM
I'll ignore the rest since I asked for evidence and its just the standard Trump/Protectionism trope.

And I'll repeat:

- $18 Trillion GDP
- Cheap Goods
- Full Employment
- Highest Manufacturing Production in History
- Highest Levels of Consumption (Globally)
- High standard of living
- Relatively Low Cost of Living (Lower than Germany, France, UK, Sweden, Finland, Japan, Australia, South Korea, you know all those countries this targets)

Getting out "clocks cleaned" doesn't seem so bad. :rolleyes:

Grab your Friedman... we're rich... rich people spend more money... spending more money means trade deficits...

This is misuse of statistics, data and economic theory.

Looking at a snapshot of data does not tell what that data would have been with the conditions changed. Basically, whatever the data is, it might have been worse of better without free trade.

But again, when you are running a huge trade deficit, that means on a net basis wealth is leaving your country. You are slowly selling off the family farm to consume more than the farm produces.

I find it comical that when a company leaves California because of the higher taxes, tougher regulations, higher salaries, higher employee benefits etc.. everyone realizes that CA is losing jobs, incomes, and wealth to other states, but no one can figure out that wealth is pouring out of the US when we run trade deficits. It's literally comical how brainwashed people have become.

Clocker
03-12-2018, 01:13 PM
This is getting really serious. The last American company making steel beer kegs says that the Trump tariffs could put them out of business. :eek:

http://reason.com/blog/2018/03/12/kick-the-keg-trumps-tariffs-kill-jobs

mrhorseplayer
03-12-2018, 02:01 PM
This is getting really serious. The last American company making steel beer kegs says that the Trump tariffs could put them out of business. :eek:

http://reason.com/blog/2018/03/12/kick-the-keg-trumps-tariffs-kill-jobs




Why cause they wont have any steel?

Clocker
03-12-2018, 02:21 PM
Why cause they wont have any steel?

Because they are facing a large increase in the cost of the steel they use to make kegs. Their competition is foreign-made kegs. Foreign makers don't have the big tax increase on the steel they use, and finished steel products like kegs don't have tariffs applied when they are imported into this country. As the only producer faced with these cost increases, they may not be able to compete.

Other American producers of products that use a lot of steel will be facing the same problem. They will have to compete against foreign companies that pay a lot less for their steel.

These tariffs are good for the 140,000 people who work in the US steel industry. They are harmful for the 5 million Americans who work in industries that use steel as an input.

reckless
03-12-2018, 02:27 PM
This is getting really serious. The last American company making steel beer kegs says that the Trump tariffs could put them out of business. :eek:

http://reason.com/blog/2018/03/12/kick-the-keg-trumps-tariffs-kill-jobs

Pa. Sen. Pat Toomey, former head of the globalist Club for Growth, said today on radio here that this company bought its steel from domestic manufacturers, not from foreign producers.

Sorry, but this transfer of wealth has to end, and it must end now. If someone's daddy in Ohio now prospers because of bad and corrupt trade deals such as NAFTA, GATT and TPP with the results that we lost 60,000 factories being closed, I have little sympathy.

Same with this Pottstown, Pa. beer keg company. Someone is lying here about this story, I have a feeling.

davew
03-12-2018, 02:56 PM
Pa. Sen. Pat Toomey, former head of the globalist Club for Growth, said today on radio here that this company bought its steel from domestic manufacturers, not from foreign producers.

Sorry, but this transfer of wealth has to end, and it must end now. If someone's daddy in Ohio now prospers because of bad and corrupt trade deals such as NAFTA, GATT and TPP with the results that we lost 60,000 factories being closed, I have little sympathy.

Same with this Pottstown, Pa. beer keg company. Someone is lying here about this story, I have a feeling.

Maybe they figure that domestic manufacturers will increase their prices?

elysiantraveller
03-12-2018, 03:27 PM
Pa. Sen. Pat Toomey, former head of the globalist Club for Growth, said today on radio here that this company bought its steel from domestic manufacturers, not from foreign producers.

Sorry, but this transfer of wealth has to end, and it must end now. If someone's daddy in Ohio now prospers because of bad and corrupt trade deals such as NAFTA, GATT and TPP with the results that we lost 60,000 factories being closed, I have little sympathy.

Same with this Pottstown, Pa. beer keg company. Someone is lying here about this story, I have a feeling.

Couldn't possibly be the politician...:rolleyes:

Must be the guy paying his bills making steel kegs... :rolleyes:triple eyeroll:rolleyes:

mrhorseplayer
03-12-2018, 03:33 PM
Because they are facing a large increase in the cost of the steel they use to make kegs. Their competition is foreign-made kegs. Foreign makers don't have the big tax increase on the steel they use, and finished steel products like kegs don't have tariffs applied when they are imported into this country. As the only producer faced with these cost increases, they may not be able to compete.

Other American producers of products that use a lot of steel will be facing the same problem. They will have to compete against foreign companies that pay a lot less for their steel.

These tariffs are good for the 140,000 people who work in the US steel industry. They are harmful for the 5 million Americans who work in industries that use steel as an input.


purchase American steel at the same cost? bet that would also create more American employment. What about the tariffs on importing these beer kegs into the USA?

elysiantraveller
03-12-2018, 03:59 PM
purchase American steel at the same cost? bet that would also create more American employment. What about the tariffs on importing these beer kegs into the USA?

TARIFFS ON ALCOHOL?!?!?! :eek:

To steal FanDan's recent and awesome video post...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmzuRXLzqKk

But in all seriousness the reason why the United States doesn't currently produce all the steel that it uses domestically is because it can't given the current price of steel globally, the cost to manufacture, required up front investment, surplus elsewhere, etc...

Its not a profitable proposition that's why isn't done already. By artificially inflating the cost of steel you create a false domestic demand and raise the price.

PaceAdvantage
03-12-2018, 04:15 PM
https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/972966665221787650Didn't you tell me Trump was making everything great for the rich business leaders and shitting on the middle class?

So now he's shitting on business too?

What to make of this man? Does he confuse you too?

Maybe you should be cheering him now? Better consult the playbook for a way out of that predicament! :pound:

lamboguy
03-12-2018, 05:23 PM
Trump has been picking up plenty of support from liberal democrats lately. he has been losing support from evangelical republican voters. he is losing support from republican women, but some liberal democratic women love him. bottom line is he really doesn't have to do to much more to get re-elected. when you shake up the tree, there are many more democrats than republicans these days and to get elected you need plenty of democrats voting for you in the right places and Trump knows how to get them to pull the lever.

Clocker
03-12-2018, 06:34 PM
Pa. Sen. Pat Toomey, former head of the globalist Club for Growth, said today on radio here that this company bought its steel from domestic manufacturers, not from foreign producers.

To keep things very simple, if imported steel prices went up 30%, do you believe that US steel makers will keep their prices at the current levels? You don't think they might increase their prices by 15-20%?

Even factoring out any greed on the part of steel companies, if import prices go up 30%, demand for US steel would increase, driving up prices as steel makers increased output with the probability of higher costs at the margin.

davew
03-12-2018, 07:07 PM
:lol:Didn't you tell me Trump was making everything great for the rich business leaders and shitting on the middle class?

So now he's shitting on business too?

What to make of this man? Does he confuse you too?

Maybe you should be cheering him now? Better consult the playbook for a way out of that predicament! :pound:

Well that is what the dim leaders keep saying on TV, and they know more than us:lol::lol::lol:

Clocker
03-13-2018, 10:53 AM
Couldn't possibly be the politician...:rolleyes:

Must be the guy paying his bills making steel kegs... :rolleyes:triple eyeroll:rolleyes:

I give the politician the benefit of the doubt. He isn't lying, just clueless. Politicians generally ignore the unintended consequences of government regulation, like a tariff on imported steel allows prices on domestic steel to increase by a lesser amount and still be competitive.

Which is why politicians should keep their fingers out of things they don't understand, like trade. Or health care. Or guns. Or the free market.

reckless
03-13-2018, 03:05 PM
To keep things very simple, if imported steel prices went up 30%, do you believe that US steel makers will keep their prices at the current levels? You don't think they might increase their prices by 15-20%?

Even factoring out any greed on the part of steel companies, if import prices go up 30%, demand for US steel would increase, driving up prices as steel makers increased output with the probability of higher costs at the margin.

Look clock, I am no longer in the mood to play the merry-go-round game that this thread is becoming. It's not a knock on you, but enough already.

To keep things very simple, as you say ... we do know the simple facts:

-- 43 years of consecutive trade deficits since 'free' and unfettered trade accelerated.

-- These 'free' trade treaties have resulted in trillions of US dollars and wealth transferred overseas.

-- Tens of thousands of factories and plants closed with millions of job losses.

-- You first mentioned how this tariff will destroy the consumer. My example of a $100 increase on a $30,000 purchase is not destructive to the consumer.

Claims by you and others, here and elsewhere, are basically saying the US economy will crater, hyperbole intended, thanks to the Trump tariff and the America First policy.

So, to keep this all very simple, why don't we wait 2-3 years and see how the tariffs and the results to our overall economy play out?

Clocker
03-13-2018, 07:39 PM
Look clock, I am no longer in the mood to play the merry-go-round game that this thread is becoming. It's not a knock on you, but enough already.



Nobody is making you "play". If you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

I am not playing any game here, I am pointing out the reality of the economics of tariffs. Reality that experts on both sides of the aisle acknowledge. Reality that Trump and his nationalist cadre refuse to accept.

To keep things very simple, as you say ... we do know the simple facts:

-- 43 years of consecutive trade deficits since 'free' and unfettered trade accelerated.

You say that like it is a bad thing. Proof?

Claims by you and others, here and elsewhere, are basically saying the US economy will crater, hyperbole intended, thanks to the Trump tariff and the America First policy.

So, to keep this all very simple, why don't we wait 2-3 years and see how the tariffs and the results to our overall economy play out?I never said "crater", and I am not aware of any other serious poster here that did either. I said, and continue to say, that we know from experience that tariffs will seriously hurt the average consumer. And we know from the Bush tariffs that they were job killers. But you continue to write that off to Bush rather than the tariffs. There is no evidence to show that the tariffs would benefit anyone other than the owners and workers in a few selected industries.

This is not new stuff. We have hundreds of years of experience with tariffs, and we know the consequences. Why should we wait years, when Trump's own campaign admitted the consequences?

According to Team Trump, their import tax would (i) force American consumers to pay 10 to 15 percent more for food, clothing, shoes, electronics, and other basic necessities; and (ii) thereby assist American manufacturing companies and their workers.http://thefederalist.com/2016/03/01/endorser-agrees-trump-policies-will-benefit-rich-at-expense-of-poor-and-middle-class/

reckless
03-14-2018, 01:39 PM
Nobody is making you "play". If you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

... I can't take the heat ?? Ha Ha. I make more heat on here than most. And contribute a lot more too.

You, as a matter of fact, never contribute an original thought or go out on the lamb with any 'hot' point of view... you just hide in the shadows and wait for the dust to settle and then you have all the answers and criticisms, just like a typical snark.

I am not playing any game here, I am pointing out the reality of the economics of tariffs. Reality that experts on both sides of the aisle acknowledge. Reality that Trump and his nationalist cadre refuse to accept.

You say that like it is a bad thing. Proof?

Experts on both sides of the aisle?? You're joking ... no, I take that back; you're not joking.

Your reality of truth has now been discounted by the millions and millions of people who had their jobs disappear and their incomes slashed thanks to unfettered, corrupted 'free' trade contracts these past 43 years.

What more proof do you want? Some graph coming from the US gov't that caused all this?? Or a press release from the Chamber of Commerce or trade assn. who bought the same politicians off in the first place and who benefits the most from all this? Yes, that's it: both sides of the corrupt bargain, 20th century rendition --that being the US government and their Fortune 500 co-conspirators-- both screwing the American worker and US taxpayer in concert. Take your pick.

I never said "crater", and I am not aware of any other serious poster here that did either. I said, and continue to say, that we know from experience that tariffs will seriously hurt the average consumer. And we know from the Bush tariffs that they were job killers. But you continue to write that off to Bush rather than the tariffs. There is no evidence to show that the tariffs would benefit anyone other than the owners and workers in a few selected industries.

The implication by you and others is our economy will tank because of the Trump steel Tariffs. Do you deny this? I said crater, and I also wrote hyperbole intended. If you want to play wise ass and parse everything you don't like that I write, than you need to demonstrate much more creativity than what you've 'showcased' so far.

This is not new stuff. We have hundreds of years of experience with tariffs, and we know the consequences. Why should we wait years, when Trump's own campaign admitted the consequences?

Well we need not have to talk about hundreds of years, just the last 43 years of consecutive trade deficits will do. That's a nice enough 'consequence' to convince most people that this 'free' trade system has failed the USA.

Your idea of 'free' trade has resulted in the decimation of the middle class that saw their incomes crater and their jobs gone. They now need to shop at crappy '99 cent' type stores and eat shitty $1 Happy Meals. And they don't do so because it's their 'choice' as you say... it's done out of necessity for many people because of all these perceived 'benefits' of 'free' trade.

Clocker
03-14-2018, 01:48 PM
You, as a matter of fact, never contribute an original thought or go out on the lamb with any 'hot' point of view... you just hide in the shadows and wait for the dust to settle and then you have all the answers and criticisms, just like a typical snark.


Straight out of The Donald Playbook. If you can't attack the facts, attack the person. :lol:

Clocker
03-14-2018, 01:51 PM
Why trade deficits are a good thing, presented by both sides of the aisle, a GOP Senator writing in a far left newspaper.

For starters, a powerful economy such as ours often runs a trade deficit because of the immense buying power of its people. Mexico’s average net per capita income is roughly $13,000, while the average U.S. household brings in more than $41,000 each year. Americans have a far greater capacity to buy goods than do consumers in Mexico. It should come as no surprise that we do exactly that.
. . . .
It should be an encouraging sign that we are by far the world’s largest receiver of foreign direct investment. Our trade deficit means, in part, that U.S. companies are considered to be a better investment than companies in other countries. More investment in American businesses means more jobs and higher wages for American workers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-trade-deficit-is-a-good-thing-really/2017/08/14/c3dd9e5e-7df0-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html?utm_term=.96f929c0e787

Clocker
03-14-2018, 01:54 PM
...while protecting a chosen few.

Why in the world would the U.S. steel and aluminum industries press the president to levy heavy tariffs? The answer is simple. Reducing the amounts of steel and aluminum that hit our shores enables American producers to charge higher prices. Thus, U.S. steel and aluminum producers will earn higher profits, hire more workers and pay them higher wages. They are the visible beneficiaries of Trump's tariffs.

But when the government creates a benefit for one American, it is a virtual guarantee that it will come at the expense of another American -- an unseen victim. The victims of steel and aluminum tariffs are the companies that use steel and aluminum. Faced with higher input costs, they become less competitive on the world market. For example, companies such as John Deere may respond to higher steel prices by purchasing their parts in the international market rather than in the U.S. To become more competitive in the world market, some firms may move their production facilities to foreign countries that do not have tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. Studies by both the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Consuming Industries Trade Action Coalition show that steel-using industries -- such as the U.S. auto industry, its suppliers and manufacturers of heavy construction equipment -- were harmed by tariffs on steel enacted by George W. Bush.
https://townhall.com/columnists/walterewilliams/2018/03/14/trumps-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-n2459974

reckless
03-14-2018, 03:38 PM
Straight out of The Donald Playbook. If you can't attack the facts, attack the person. :lol:

Typical response by an anti-Trump troll who proves it regularly by creating your very own hate-Trump narrative. You're being laughed at with your hatred for Trump.

btw, I did provide some facts -- the ones that are true and a result of all this 'free' trade you espouse. W. Bush destroying the US economy led the way for Barack Obama -- and Bush's own steel tariff was not the reason for the destruction W. caused. Keep hitching your wagon to Pappy and W. Bush and see how far that gets you in the credibility game.

PS--I noticed you've avoided telling us again how the closing of 60,000 factories and millions of jobs lost -- along with the trillions of wealth shipped overseas -- has been good for the USA since 'free' trade deals have been accelerating.

Oh yeah, you did try once -- you said we now have the free choice to shop at Wal-Mart, Dollar stores and eat $1 happy meals. :lol::lol: :lol:

Clocker
03-14-2018, 06:10 PM
btw, I did provide some facts -- the ones that are true and a result of all this 'free' trade you espouse. W. Bush destroying the US economy led the way for Barack Obama -- and Bush's own steel tariff was not the reason for the destruction W. caused. Keep hitching your wagon to Pappy and W. Bush and see how far that gets you in the credibility game.



I believe in the current lingo, those are referred to as false facts. :p

The result of Bush's tariffs was a $30 million hit to the economy, according to a lengthy government report (https://www.usitc.gov/publications/safeguards/3632/pub3632_vol3_all.pdf) from the U.S. International Trade Commission in 2003. Studies by outside groups conclude that the United States lost jobs because of the move: The employment gains in factories that make raw steel were outweighed by job losses in other industries, especially at companies that take raw steel and make it into parts for cars and appliances. To put it another way, it cost about $400,000 per job saved in the steel industry, according to an estimate by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (https://piie.com/publications/pb/pb03-1.pdf).

There were 200,000 job losses from Bush's steel tariffs, according to a study (http://www.tradepartnership.com/pdf_files/2002jobstudy.pdf) by the Trade Partnership, a consulting firm that was paid to do the research by the industries that use steel and were hurt the most by the tariff. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/06/remember-bushs-2002-steel-tariffs-his-chief-of-staff-warns-trump-not-to-do-the-same/?utm_term=.7b999e7e8744

Clocker
03-14-2018, 06:17 PM
PS--I noticed you've avoided telling us again how the closing of 60,000 factories and millions of jobs lost -- along with the trillions of wealth shipped overseas -- has been good for the USA since 'free' trade deals have been accelerating.



Lost "since" the deals does not mean lost "because" of the deals.



“America has lost nearly one-third of its manufacturing jobs since Nafta and 50,000 factories since China joined the World Trade Organization,” says Mr Trump’s official site, citing research from 2007 by the Economic Policy Institute.

According to this narrative, the US’s trade policies, growing trade deficits with Mexico and Canada, and China’s “unfair subsidy behaviour” are to blame for the US’s “deindustrialisation” and its disappearing middle class.

The US did indeed lose about 5.6m manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010. But according to a study by the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University, 85 per cent of these jobs losses are actually attributable to technological change — largely automation — rather than international trade. https://www.ft.com/content/dec677c0-b7e6-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62

Clocker
03-14-2018, 06:41 PM
Apparently those left-wing moonbats at the Wall Street Journal are Trump haters too. From an editorial about the tariffs at that liberal rag:

The immediate impact will be to make the U.S. an island of high-priced steel and aluminum. The U.S. companies will raise their prices to nearly match the tariffs while snatching some market share. The additional profits will flow to executives in higher bonuses and shareholders, at least until the higher prices hurt their steel- and aluminum-using customers. Then U.S. steel and aluminum makers will be hurt as well.

Mr. Trump seems not to understand that steel-using industries in the U.S. employ some 6.5 million Americans, while steel makers employ about 140,000. Transportation industries, including aircraft and autos, account for about 40% of domestic steel consumption, followed by packaging with 20% and building construction with 15%. All will have to pay higher prices, making them less competitive globally and in the U.S.

Instead of importing steel to make goods in America, many companies will simply import the finished product made from cheaper steel or aluminum abroad. Mr. Trump fancies himself the savior of the U.S. auto industry, but he might note that Ford Motor shares fell 3% Thursday and GM’s fell 4%. U.S. Steel gained 5.8%. Mr. Trump has handed a giant gift to foreign car makers, which will now have a cost advantage over Detroit. How do you think that will play in Michigan in 2020?
https://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/2018/03/02/trump-aspires-new-hoover-styled-america-others-warn-folly/

reckless
03-14-2018, 08:19 PM
Apparently those left-wing moonbats at the Wall Street Journal are Trump haters too. From an editorial about the tariffs at that liberal rag:

https://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/2018/03/02/trump-aspires-new-hoover-styled-america-others-warn-folly/

Actually the WSJ are Trump haters ... but to the Trump haters, who cares?

While the WSJ are not left wing moonbats, especially in the manner of which you snark, they are for those same unfair and unfettered 'free' trade deals that you agree with and support.

They are the media front group who acts as de-facto lobbyists for the Fortune 500 multinationals and the local US Chambers of Commerce.

The editors of the WSJ, along with their Big Business corporate cronies (and add those politicians they own as well) never eat $1 Happy Meals, I assure you.

Sorry I can't say the same thing for the many millions of working class American citizens that had their jobs outsourced overseas, their wages cut or left stagnant at best for many years now and their tax burden raised to pay for the huge national debt caused primarily by trade deficits.

Clocker
03-15-2018, 12:42 AM
A good article from the Mises Institute: "Manufacturing Jobs Are Overrated".

One of the reasons that Donald Trump gives for slapping new protectionist tariffs on steel and aluminum is that it will create manufacturing jobs, and by extension, greatly enhance income growth and standards of living in the United States.

Trump is capitalizing on an enduring myth of American economic history in which it is believed that declines in manufacturing jobs are necessarily accompanied by drops in standards of living as well.

What is often forgotten, however, is that manufacturing jobs, in proportion to the population overall, dropped significantly from the end of World War II through the 1950s and 1960s. And yet, during this time, real median incomes in the United States increased.
The rest of the article is here:
https://mises.org/wire/manufacturing-jobs-are-overrated

Clocker
03-15-2018, 01:22 AM
their tax burden raised to pay for the huge national debt caused primarily by trade deficits.

The huge national debt is caused by politicians spending more money than is taken in through taxes. That is called a fiscal deficit. It has nothing to do with trade or the trade deficit.

And the trade deficit is not a bad thing. A trade deficit means that we buy more goods from foreign countries than they buy from us. But that also results in a capital surplus for us, which means that foreigners invest more money in our country than we invest in theirs. Which creates jobs for Americans.

Inner Dirt
03-15-2018, 08:15 AM
I just wish the tariffs were higher on aluminum. I hope the aluminum tariff helps run Chinese 6061 aluminum out of the USA. The stuff is poor quality and difficult to work with for what I use aluminum for. Over the 3 decades I have been self employed it has gotten an increased market share. A lot of suppliers sell Chinese that used to only sell domestic. Problem is the smaller sizes of raw stock are not marked by the mill so you have to trust the supplier. I can take one cut and tell if the stuff is Chinese crap or not.

Tom
03-15-2018, 10:48 AM
I added a statement of all of my POs for aluminum and steel "No foreign materials accepted." I then had a list of approved US suppliers/mills that had to be used androvide certification.

For years, every tool we bought from China was substandard, inccomplete, of just plain screwed up and required rework/repairs before we could ship to our customer.

elysiantraveller
03-15-2018, 10:49 AM
With a guys like Trump running the narrative who needs facts?

If I remember correctly Clocker brought up our service exports in this country and not a peep from the tariff folks.

Trump keeps making a wildly misleading claim about trade between the US and Canada (http://www.businessinsider.com/us-canada-trade-deficit-trump-misleading-claim-nafta-2018-3)

"We have large trade deficits with Mexico and Canada," Trump said. "NAFTA, which is under renegotiation right now, has been a bad deal for U.S.A. Massive relocation of companies & jobs. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum will only come off if new & fair NAFTA agreement is signed."

...

According to the US Trade Representative, the US actually maintained a $12.5 billion trade surplus with Canada in 2016, the most recent data available.

The US did run a goods deficit of $12.1 billion, but it made up for it with a $24.6 billion surplus in services trade, such as intellectual property and travel.

Even looking strictly at goods, the deficit is not large compared with years past. Commerce Department data shows that the 2016 deficit was the smallest since 1993 and well down from a peak of $78.5 billion in 2005.

Tom
03-15-2018, 11:09 AM
A POTUS not telling the truth!

:sleeping:

Inner Dirt
03-15-2018, 11:10 AM
I added a statement of all of my POs for aluminum and steel "No foreign materials accepted." I then had a list of approved US suppliers/mills that had to be used androvide certification.

For years, every tool we bought from China was substandard, inccomplete, of just plain screwed up and required rework/repairs before we could ship to our customer.


That doesn't work for me with suppliers that mix their materials on the small unmarked sizes. There can be Chinese and USA 3/8" round bars in the same trough on a rack unbundled. If you ask for certs they will just send you a copy of the mill certs for the last shipment they received. The Capitol of the Confederacy is horrible for sourcing materials, but I have to play the hand I am dealt. Back when I was in California the suppliers were good about not mixing materials that were not marked, not the case here. I can't be competitive on a lot of jobs if I have the material trucked in as freight and handling costs have went up way past the rate of inflation. Most of the time I am stuck buying locally.

Inner Dirt
03-15-2018, 11:21 AM
I added a statement of all of my POs for aluminum and steel "No foreign materials accepted." I then had a list of approved US suppliers/mills that had to be used androvide certification.

For years, every tool we bought from China was substandard, inccomplete, of just plain screwed up and required rework/repairs before we could ship to our customer.


I know places that will outsource to low end Chinese shops and figure they are still money ahead even figuring the cost of 100% inspection, throwing away all bad parts and reworking the ones that are salvageable.

A place a friend worked in California got rid of a whole department that made their simple electrical contacts and outsourced them to China knowing full well from samples the Chinese shop had quality issues. They figured they still save 10-20% by outsourcing and paying a group of people $12 an hour to sort out the bad ones using a microscope and micrometers. My friend was a tool and die maker. Instead of having a full tool and die shop they outsourced to China and had my friend and a helper rework all the out of spec items.

elysiantraveller
03-15-2018, 12:32 PM
The EU will meet next week to seek exemption. In the meantime they are assembling a block to strike back should they not receive one...

With friends like Trump who needs enemies right...?

These are our allies.

Tom
03-15-2018, 04:21 PM
I know places that will outsource to low end Chinese shops and figure they are still money ahead even figuring the cost of 100% inspection, throwing away all bad parts and reworking the ones that are salvageable.

A place a friend worked in California got rid of a whole department that made their simple electrical contacts and outsourced them to China knowing full well from samples the Chinese shop had quality issues. They figured they still save 10-20% by outsourcing and paying a group of people $12 an hour to sort out the bad ones using a microscope and micrometers. My friend was a tool and die maker. Instead of having a full tool and die shop they outsourced to China and had my friend and a helper rework all the out of spec items.

We are going to be in sorry sape for mold-makers. That is NOT something you take a two year course and go about and do.
We are not going to be able to react to a crisis in the future. We will be forever out of the tooling business without trained
mold makers at our service.

If you need shit, go to China - they have all you can use.

btw, did you ever run in tot Chinese NEw Year Syndrome?
Half the people working our your project will not come back to work after the February shut down and your deadlines are now moot.

Whatever the costs, being self-reliant in EVERYTHING outweighs all the negatives.

elysiantraveller
03-15-2018, 05:58 PM
Whatever the costs, being self-reliant in EVERYTHING outweighs all the negatives.

No it doesn't.

Being free to do what you are best and most productive at is.

Break it down to the ridiculous... you aren't completely self-reliant. Even if you were you wouldn't be nearly as happy.

Clocker
03-15-2018, 06:04 PM
Break it down to the ridiculous... you aren't completely self-reliant. Even if you were you wouldn't be nearly as happy.

True, he wouldn't have the joy of grumbling about the incompetents he has to deal with. :p

Tom
03-15-2018, 10:10 PM
I'm talking about the country being self reliant.
Being dependent on other nations is like the sheeple being dependent on the government.

I'll gladly pay more for stuff made here if it means jobs for Americans and more self-reliance overall.

elysiantraveller
03-15-2018, 11:38 PM
I'm talking about the country being self reliant.
Being dependent on other nations is like the sheeple being dependent on the government.

I'll gladly pay more for stuff made here if it means jobs for Americans and more self-reliance overall.

No you won't because some stuff we don't produce here cheaply. Even so... to say you would means you're okay at putting yourself at a financial disadvantage against the rest of the world.

Secondly, at this point I'm getting really tired of this "more jobs for Americans" trope.

We are at 4% unemployment with a shrinking workforce. Who in the hell is going to fill them?

The way you people talk this place is in the shitter... until you remind us how great it's going...

It's going pretty great you are right... Why regulate?

Tom
03-16-2018, 10:49 AM
We are at 4% unemployment with a shrinking workforce. Who in the hell is going to fill them?

Really?

Ever hear of births - we add people every day.
ever hear of moving up, getting a BETTER job?

Duh.

Now I know you are just trolling.

elysiantraveller
03-16-2018, 02:54 PM
Really?

Ever hear of births - we add people every day.
ever hear of moving up, getting a BETTER job?

Duh.

Now I know you are just trolling.

The lot of you really need to take Econ 101 again.

Who fills the job of the guy moving up? Nobody.

So they pay more for the same job and raise their prices to compensate. Kinda what is free traders have been saying all along and you guys agree whenever the $15/hr McDonald's worker comes up.

Tom
03-16-2018, 04:02 PM
I'm talking about JOBS, not McJobs.
Lot more you need to learn about Reality 101.

elysiantraveller
03-16-2018, 07:26 PM
I'm talking about JOBS, not McJobs.
Lot more you need to learn about Reality 101.

You didn't answer the question.

We have a declining workforce population.

who fills the lower wage job if everyone advances?

Labor supply is a thing you know. We are low on it already.

elysiantraveller
03-16-2018, 07:36 PM
European Union releases 10-page list of potential targets for retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/03/16/european-union-releases-10-page-list-of-potential-targets-for-retaliatory-tariffs-on-u-s-products/?utm_term=.f27d2efb63cf)

The list offered the most detailed glimpse to date of the likely targets for E.U. action, including products selected for maximum political impact in the United States. Among them: bourbon, a specialty of Kentucky, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s home state; cranberries, which are grown in House Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s native Wisconsin; orange juice from Florida; and tobacco from North Carolina. Florida and North Carolina are considered political swing states with key electoral votes.

Wasn't China supposed to be the target of this Administrations trade policies? Not our strategic allies?

Tom
03-16-2018, 08:39 PM
I answered it.
You just won't read it.

elysiantraveller
03-16-2018, 08:50 PM
I answered it.
You just won't read it.

Make babies was your answer?

Clocker
03-17-2018, 10:14 PM
Speaking of swamps, as in another busy thread here today, it appears that there is a steel swamp in Washington. All of Trump's pro-tariff advisers have strong associations with the steel industry.

In 2011, Nucor, the largest steel company in the country, contributed $1 million to a non-profit to finance a movie made by Peter Navarro's production company.

The movie chronicles the erosion of the U.S. manufacturing base and China’s rise as an industrial power since the 1990s. Mr. Navarro co-wrote a book by the same name that was published in 2011. In the movie, Tom Danjczek, then-president of the Steel Manufacturers Association, points to the problem of Chinese steel overproduction due to government subsidies.

Dan DiMicco, who was chief executive of Nucor from 2000 to 2012, said the company paid for the film through the San Diego nonprofit at Mr. Navarro’s request.

As the WSJ documents:Mr. Navarro is now a top trade adviser in the White House, with a growing public profile for his get-tough views on trade. His connection with Nucor underscores the wide-ranging, historic ties between Mr. Trump’s top trade advisers and the U.S. steel industry, which stands to benefit from tariffs the Trump administration recently imposed.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, a Wall Street veteran, spent more than $1 billion to purchase distressed steel firms and assembled them into a new company, International Steel Group Inc., which he sold for $4.5 billion to the London-based Mittal family in 2004, The Wall Street Journal reported at the time. He served on ArcelorMittal’s board until becoming commerce secretary last year.

Gilbert Kaplan, Mr. Trump’s nominee as undersecretary for international trade at the Commerce Department, is a former steel-industry lobbyist. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer represented American steel companies as a lawyer in private practice before his current turn as the government’s top trade negotiator. The USTR’s nominated deputy, Jeffrey Gerrish, and his general counsel, Stephen Vaughn, lobbied on trade laws for U.S. Steel Corp.
https://www.nationalreview.com/blog/corner/the-swamp-navarro-nucor-edition/

fast4522
03-17-2018, 10:48 PM
European Union releases 10-page list of potential targets for retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/03/16/european-union-releases-10-page-list-of-potential-targets-for-retaliatory-tariffs-on-u-s-products/?utm_term=.f27d2efb63cf)



Wasn't China supposed to be the target of this Administrations trade policies? Not our strategic allies?

They have only one play, a losing one. Half of this country thinks if a 30 % duty is placed on our cars entering their country we should be reciprocal to their cars. This is all very preliminary, this President believes in having much to negotiate with. This thought gives you and many others nausea, to this I say Tums are cheep enough.

Clocker
03-17-2018, 11:02 PM
They have only one play, a losing one. Half of this country thinks if a 30 % duty is placed on our cars entering their country we should be reciprocal to their cars.

Half of this country thinks that Hillary Clinton would have made a good president. I would prefer to use a little more intelligence and information in formulating policy.

Those tariffs are not placed on cars, they are placed on American citizens. Why deny Americans the choice to make their own decisions?

elysiantraveller
03-17-2018, 11:07 PM
They have only one play, a losing one. Half of this country thinks if a 30 % duty is placed on our cars entering their country we should be reciprocal to their cars. This is all very preliminary, this President believes in having much to negotiate with. This thought gives you and many others nausea, to this I say Tums are cheep enough.

:bang:

This has been covered and ignored by you... repeatedly.

They make their cars HERE.

We make our cars THERE.

Finally for those actually keeping score the EU charges a 10% flat tax. We charge 2.5% and 25% on trucks and vans.

johnhannibalsmith
03-18-2018, 12:04 AM
You and your'e RBG elk just keep repeating the same lefty nonsense!

elysiantraveller
03-18-2018, 12:59 AM
You and your'e RBG elk just keep repeating the same lefty nonsense!

Red blue green elk is my spirit animal...

https://cdn-img-2.wanelo.com/p/aef/9ba/a28/d563c40889fd034fec018a5/x354-q80.jpg

Inner Dirt
03-18-2018, 08:32 AM
You didn't answer the question.

We have a declining workforce population.

who fills the lower wage job if everyone advances?

Labor supply is a thing you know. We are low on it already.

You either end up waiting longer for your Big Mac or have to drive further to buy one, or 3rd option you cook your own burgers. Not sure of your age or where and how you grew up, but when and where I came from manufacturing used provide entry level non union jobs at 150%-200% of minimum wage and provided a career path for a decent living for those not college bound.

elysiantraveller
03-18-2018, 10:25 AM
You either end up waiting longer for your Big Mac or have to drive further to buy one, or 3rd option you cook your own burgers.

Ding! Things get more expensive.

Not sure of your age or where and how you grew up, but when and where I came from manufacturing used provide entry level non union jobs at 150%-200% of minimum wage and provided a career path for a decent living for those not college bound.

My family owns a staffing company that staffs those jobs. Denso, Bissell, Whirlpool are some of the clients and I filled in on those positions from time to time growing up. The jobs are going away largely due to automation and that 150-200% above the minimum wage you talk about.

14.50*2080= $30,160

This is why those jobs are vanishing... they're too expensive.

http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/xnsmmuvwz0ww5ductyp7rq.png

Inner Dirt
03-18-2018, 10:41 AM
The jobs are going away largely due to automation and that 150-200% above the minimum wage you talk about.



I really would be curious to know the amount of jobs lost to various reasons. Of course automation is one, but I don't think it is as big as many think. I have worked in various forms of manufacturing for pretty much 40 years and half of that is as a small machine shop owner. Oddly enough some jobs lost to China are done with less automation over there as they were done here. A lot of manufacturing processes have been done pretty much the same way for a half century or more. Haven't watched in years, while full of inaccuracies the show "How it's made" is pretty interesting. A lot of things that one would assume were highly automated are not and others are automated that a person would think could not be.

newtothegame
03-18-2018, 10:46 AM
No you won't because some stuff we don't produce here cheaply. Even so... to say you would means you're okay at putting yourself at a financial disadvantage against the rest of the world.

Secondly, at this point I'm getting really tired of this "more jobs for Americans" trope.

We are at 4% unemployment with a shrinking workforce. Who in the hell is going to fill them?

The way you people talk this place is in the shitter... until you remind us how great it's going...

It's going pretty great you are right... Why regulate?
One would never know this the way you give this administration and what has gone on the "biz"....
:headbanger:

Clocker
03-18-2018, 11:24 AM
I really would be curious to know the amount of jobs lost to various reasons.

From The Financial Times:



The US did indeed lose about 5.6m manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010. But according to a study by the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University, 85 per cent of these jobs losses are actually attributable to technological change — largely automation — rather than international trade. https://www.ft.com/content/dec677c0-b7e6-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62

Clocker
03-18-2018, 12:19 PM
American steel mills are also increasing productivity while reducing jobs.

In the 1980s, American steelmakers needed 10.1 man-hours to produce a ton of steel; now they need 1.5 man-hours (see chart below), says Joe Innace of S&P Global Platts. Most American steel is now made at super-efficient mini-mills, which use electric arc furnaces to turn scrap metal into steel. (Traditional integrated steel mills make steel from scratch, feeding iron ore and coking coal into blast furnaces.)


Some mini-mills need just 0.5 man-hours to produce a ton of steel, Innace says. Increased productivity means today’s steel mills don’t need as many workers. Steel industry employment peaked at 650,000 in 1953. By the start of this year, U.S. steelmakers employed just 143,000.
The article concludes: "Tariffs will let those mills raise prices and profits, but they won’t add much more than a token number of new jobs."

https://fee.org/articles/increased-productivity-is-eliminating-steel-industry-jobs-not-imports/

PaceAdvantage
03-20-2018, 07:51 PM
Trade deficits are good.

Always remember this line folks, and praise those who say it.

(Yes I'm being sarcastic)

Clocker
03-20-2018, 08:59 PM
Trade deficits are good.

Always remember this line folks, and praise those who say it.

(Yes I'm being sarcastic)

What's bad about trade deficits? They give American consumers more buying choices and lower prices. They increase the purchasing power of Americans. Contrary to conventional wisdom, they do not kill off huge numbers of manufacturing jobs.

The other side of that coin is that when we have a trade deficit, we have a capital surplus. That means that foreigners are investing more money in this country than we are investing in other countries. That creates jobs and wealth here. Investments like Toyota and Mercedes and BMW building plants here.

And in spite of all the horror stories about deficits coming out of the White House, Americans still produce 72.5% of the steel we use. And China produces 3% of the 27.5% that we import.

So why are trade surpluses, the opposite of deficits, such a good thing? A place to start might be to look back at the 1930s. We had big trade surpluses in that decade.

elysiantraveller
03-20-2018, 10:04 PM
Trade deficits are good.

Always remember this line folks, and praise those who say it.

(Yes I'm being sarcastic)

Why does everything these days have to be good/bad? Why can't it just be...

Since we are listing good/bad though here it is again;

The Good:

- $18 Trillion GDP
- Cheap Goods
- Full Employment
- Highest Manufacturing Production in History
- Highest Levels of Consumption (Globally)
- High standard of living
- Relatively Low Cost of Living (Lower than Germany, France, UK, Sweden, Finland, Japan, Australia, South Korea, you know all those countries this targets)

The Bad:

- $500-600 billion trade deficit totalling approx. 2.5% GDP

Clocker
03-20-2018, 11:01 PM
The Bad:

- $500-600 billion trade deficit totaling approx. 2.5% GDP


Trade deficits are not always bad. It can vary, depending on the economy of a country, but for this country at this time, trade deficits are good, as explained in this article, "In Praise of Trade Deficits".

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/trade-deficit-effects.asp

Other countries are moving in the same direction. If you don't have a trade deficit, you have a trade surplus. And that can be bad for a country. China been working for some years now to decrease its trade surplus. A big reason for them is that running a big trade surplus has been driving investment money out of the country and into places like Vietnam.

Just as a trade deficit for the US means a capital surplus (increasing foreign investment), a trade surplus for China has meant a capital deficit (decreasing foreign investment).

Germany has also been running a trade surplus for some time. Now they are trying to cut it down.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2015/04/03/germanys-trade-surplus-is-a-problem/

elysiantraveller
03-20-2018, 11:17 PM
...

No need to tell me.

The United States is second in the world in terms of capital investment as well. Second only behind a country with 4x as many people.

It sucks here... #MAGA

fast4522
03-21-2018, 07:57 PM
Half of this country thinks that Hillary Clinton would have made a good president. I would prefer to use a little more intelligence and information in formulating policy.

Those tariffs are not placed on cars, they are placed on American citizens. Why deny Americans the choice to make their own decisions?

Half of the country is just as corrupt for voting for such a flawed candidate, wanting socialism in the form of subsides given to those who do not deserve it by over taxing the young in the ACA. How many died so she could stay in power, do you really think Vince Foster killed himself ? I got news for you, half of the country does not believe that incorporated couple. You guys bet it all on a loser, and you want to keep up the resistance. 2018 is not going to work out for you, and its a guarantee I will not be the only one to rub it in to you every single time our agenda inches forward. Yes there will be setbacks on both sides but only a short time for some real stingers to occur.

Clocker
03-21-2018, 08:14 PM
You guys bet it all on a loser, and you want to keep up the resistance. 2018 is not going to work out for you, and its a guarantee I will not be the only one to rub it in to you every single time our agenda inches forward.

Your reading comprehension leaves much to be desired. Or did you not bother to read what I wrote?

To repeat what I said, and what you quoted, and what apparently put a burr under your saddle,

Half of this country thinks that Hillary Clinton would have made a good president. I would prefer to use a little more intelligence and information in formulating policy.

fast4522
03-21-2018, 08:32 PM
Your reading comprehension leaves much to be desired. Or did you not bother to read what I wrote?

To repeat what I said, and what you quoted, and what apparently put a burr under your saddle,

I did indeed read it, and still feel the portion you speak of asks what this country can do for them unlike what JFK said in his landmark speech so many years ago. Those tariffs that Americans will end up paying on their new BMW's and Mercedes do not bother me at all. It is like a consumption tax that never could have been passed on people that will buy them anyway. Hope you do not mind answering a few of you in one post.

Clocker
03-21-2018, 08:46 PM
I did indeed read it, and still feel the portion you speak of asks what this country can do for them unlike what JFK said in his landmark speech so many years ago.

No, the portion I speak of says that the fact that half the country voted for Hillary proves that the majority opinion is not always a solid basis for good policy.

fast4522
03-21-2018, 08:50 PM
No, the portion I speak of says that the fact that half the country voted for Hillary proves that the majority opinion is not always a solid basis for good policy.

But it was the main reasoning for the votes she got, say what you will. Hey got a goo movie for you to see, Chappaquiddick.

johnhannibalsmith
03-21-2018, 09:02 PM
Oh, you crazy guys. :lol:

elysiantraveller
03-22-2018, 10:17 AM
Shocked... shocked I say! :rolleyes:

EU and others may get tariff exemptions, US trade official says (http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/21/news/economy/us-tariff-exemptions-european-union/index.html)

And from across the pond today...

Europe expects to escape US metal tariffs (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/22/europe-expects-escape-us-metal-tariffs/)

On second thought... "we'll pass on a trade war" is the message from the WH.

Announcement expected today.

classhandicapper
03-22-2018, 11:21 AM
Shocked... shocked I say! :rolleyes:

EU and others may get tariff exemptions, US trade official says (http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/21/news/economy/us-tariff-exemptions-european-union/index.html)

And from across the pond today...

Europe expects to escape US metal tariffs (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/22/europe-expects-escape-us-metal-tariffs/)

On second thought... "we'll pass on a trade war" is the message from the WH.

Announcement expected today.

Are you really foolish enough to think Trump wants or wanted a trade war?

He's a businessman that has made tons of money via trade.

Did you ever think that Trump makes threats as part of his negotiating tactics to get to where he really wants but the media is so dumb and consumed with hate they still don't understand that?

Instead they use it to attack him (and the other haters just gobble it up) before the final deals are in place?

I mean, if at the end of this we come away with a few tarriffs in situations where people are clearly trading unfairly and/or countries like Mexico, Canada, and China come to the table to renegotiate aspects of NAFTA and other deals to our advantage, the result would be brilliant.

I still don't see anything to complain about.

I think everything is going great so far.

We finally have someone in office that's not bent over taking it where the sun doesn't shine on trade. So far nothing out of line has been done and he has them all talking. If he moves any of these deals a little to our advantage, that's massively better than anyone has done after decades of utter stupidity taking it in the butt.

Clocker
03-22-2018, 11:57 AM
Are you really foolish enough to think Trump wants or wanted a trade war?



He said he does, and his supporters believed him. So are you saying that Trump is just another sleazy politician, lying to voters to get elected?

He's a businessman that has made tons of money via trade.
Hint: NYC real estate is not subject to competition from foreign imports.

Hint: Trump merchandise, such as his clothing line, is all manufactured off-shore.

elysiantraveller
03-22-2018, 01:04 PM
Or lack of deal...

Or anything really...

Just a big circus.

EU and six other countries exempted from US metals tariffs (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43505804)

US imports of steel last year totalled $33bn.

But if the countries granted exemptions are removed from that total - including Canada and Mexico, whose exemptions had already been announced - then less than a third of US steel imports would be subject to tariffs.

Surprised us free-traders saw this coming. :rolleyes:

Awaiting the Trump spin machine to cycle up.

FantasticDan
03-22-2018, 01:25 PM
Awaiting the Trump spin machine to cycle up.

http://www.departmentofmemes.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/4d-chess.jpg

elysiantraveller
03-22-2018, 01:27 PM
Did you ever think that Trump makes threats as part of his negotiating tactics to get to where he really wants but the media is so dumb and consumed with hate they still don't understand that?

No, because it didn't accomplish anything aside from piss off allies.

It was a short-sighted punitive policy with no clear objective. Its been treated as such by the EU.

But I'm not the one that says trade wars are "easy to win"... I would argue they aren't necessary.

I feel the global economy is a bit trickier than a tweet.

elysiantraveller
03-22-2018, 01:37 PM
:pound:

Clocker
03-22-2018, 01:58 PM
No, because it didn't accomplish anything aside from piss off allies.

And the vast majority of US corporations.

https://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/20180324_WOC545.png

https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2018/03/daily-chart-13?cid1=cust/ddnew/email/n/n/20180321n/owned/n/n/ddnew/n/n/n/nna/Daily_Dispatch/email&etear=dailydispatch&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily_Dispatch&utm_term=20180321

classhandicapper
03-22-2018, 02:29 PM
He said he does, and his supporters believed him. So are you saying that Trump is just another sleazy politician, lying to voters to get elected?

Hint: NYC real estate is not subject to competition from foreign imports.

Hint: Trump merchandise, such as his clothing line, is all manufactured off-shore.

He doesn't want a trade war and never said he does.

He said it would be easy to win a trade war because we are running such huge trade deficits with many countries they have more or lose than we do.

I think he's obviously correct that they have more to lose than we do, but whether they blink and come to the table for negotiations remains to be seen.

The very fact that he does a a lot of importing for his clothing line is telling you he knows very well that the playing field is not level. That's why jobs and investment have been moving away from the US. That's what he's trying to fix. If you fix the trade deficits, that means we are exporting more and importing less. That means we are manufacturing more, adding more jobs, and investing in ourselves instead of slowly selling ourselves off to foreigners that hold all those dollars.

classhandicapper
03-22-2018, 02:41 PM
No, because it didn't accomplish anything aside from piss off allies.

It was a short-sighted punitive policy with no clear objective. Its been treated as such by the EU.

But I'm not the one that says trade wars are "easy to win"... I would argue they aren't necessary.

I feel the global economy is a bit trickier than a tweet.

I don't know if trade wars are easy to win, but they are not all created equal. If you are running a several hundred billion dollar deficit with someone else, you have massive leverage over them because they stand to lose a LOT more than you if they don't renegotiate.

He's been trying to renegotiate trade deals pretty much since the first day he appointed Wilbur Ross. This is part of the overall trade strategy to reduce or eliminate the trade deficits. He's the first person in politics to have enough of brain to know it's a problem other than Ross Perot.

We will see if he makes progress. It will be tough.

The accumulated deficits while we've had pinheads in charge give foreigners leverage over us in that they can threaten to sell our bonds, cause rates to rise, and put us into recession. That's one of the reasons I say this whole free trade experiment was a nightmare for us. China, Japan, Saudi Arabia and others can pull the plug on our country if they don't like our policy on anything, but of course they can't do it with screwing themselves.

Clocker
03-22-2018, 02:43 PM
He doesn't want a trade war and never said he does.



Actions speak louder than words.

The very fact that he does a a lot of importing for his clothing line is telling you he knows very well that the playing field is not level. That's why jobs and investment have been moving away from the US. That's what he's trying to fix. So he didn't want to pay the price of standing up for his principles, but he wants us to pay it.

If you fix the trade deficits, that means we are exporting more and importing less. That means we are manufacturing more, adding more jobs, and investing in ourselves instead of slowly selling ourselves off to foreigners that hold all those dollars. No, it doesn't. It means that consumer prices go up and consumer buying power decreases. The added jobs in the protected industries are insignificant compared to the lost jobs in the down stream companies that use the goods, steel in this case, as inputs.

How is getting German auto companies to invest here and create jobs for Americans, both in those plants and in the provision of products and services to them, "selling ourselves off"?

classhandicapper
03-22-2018, 02:46 PM
And the vast majority of US corporations.

https://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/20180324_WOC545.png

https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2018/03/daily-chart-13?cid1=cust/ddnew/email/n/n/20180321n/owned/n/n/ddnew/n/n/n/nna/Daily_Dispatch/email&etear=dailydispatch&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily_Dispatch&utm_term=20180321

Yeah, lots of people that got rich off unbridled free trade are for unbridled free trade and everyone that lost their job, standard of living, or that pays taxes to pay interest on bonds that are owned by Communist Chinese and Saudi Arabian sheikhs should be against it, but they are brain washed.

classhandicapper
03-22-2018, 02:53 PM
Actions speak louder than words.

So he didn't want to pay the price of standing up for his principles, but he wants us to pay it.

No, it doesn't. It means that consumer prices go up and consumer buying power decreases. The added jobs in the protected industries are insignificant compared to the lost jobs in the down stream companies that use the goods, steel in this case, as inputs.

How is getting German auto companies to invest here and create jobs for Americans, both in those plants and in the provision of products and services to them, "selling ourselves off"?

1. The tariffs are part of a process to get fairer deals. We don't now if they will work.

2. He did what any sensible person would do. The idea is to change the math so a sensible person would stay in the US instead of importing. It's not to be an idiot and invest in the US and lose.

2. Whatever we lose as a country because of higher prices is MUCH LESS than we would gain in jobs and wealth invested back in the US instead of overseas. There is only a benefit to both sides when the trade is roughly equal. Since we don't have equal trade, we are net losing. Of course, the losers are all the unemployed, underemployed, and taxpayers with no power and the winners were Wall St, large corporations and people like me whose job did not leave and who was smart enough to invest in global corporations and Wall st to get rich on this fiasco.

Clocker
03-22-2018, 03:07 PM
The tariffs are part of a process to get fairer deals. We don't now if they will work.



A fair deal is one that both sides voluntarily agree to. End of story.

We do know that tariffs don't work, never have.

Whatever we lose as a country because of higher prices is MUCH LESS than we would gain in jobs and wealth invested back in the US instead of overseas.We lost a net 200,000 jobs when Bush imposed steel tariffs on China. Insanity is repeating the same action while expecting a different result. How can we expect Trump's tariffs to have a different result than Bush's?

Running a trade deficit by definition means running a capital surplus, which means an increase in money invested in the US instead of overseas.

elysiantraveller
03-22-2018, 03:19 PM
Running a trade deficit by definition means running a capital surplus, which means an increase in money invested in the US instead of overseas.

If you break our capital investment down by population its around $12k per person in this country.

Dwarves the rest of the world.

classhandicapper
03-22-2018, 03:29 PM
A fair deal is one that both sides voluntarily agree to. End of story.

We do know that tariffs don't work, never have.

We lost a net 200,000 jobs when Bush imposed steel tariffs on China. Insanity is repeating the same action while expecting a different result. How can we expect Trump's tariffs to have a different result than Bush's?

Running a trade deficit by definition means running a capital surplus, which means an increase in money invested in the US instead of overseas.

1. We have a different definition of fair. I once got a 30 ball spot from a pool player I could beat by 50 straight up. He agreed to the game. Even I know the deal wasn't fair.

2. Generally I agree that tariffs are bad UNLESS they lead to better deal soon after. However, there are already tariffs/taxes on some of our goods that help keep the math favoring our partners instead of us. That's part of why we have some of these deficits and that's part of what we need to fix.

3. You are missing why the trade deficit is bad.

If we run a trade deficit, we get goods and services (which depreciate) and they get dollars. The "capital surplus" is then invested (usually by FOREIGNERS) in US assets. It is money invested here, but US citizens often do not own those assets. Foreigners do and they get to decide what to invest in, when, at what price, and at what interest rate. If they don't like the deal, they can dump US assets and crush the economy. They keep getting richer and more powerful and we keep getting poorer than we would have been.

When you and I pay taxes, some of it goes to paying interest. If our friends owed those bonds, the wealth would stay here. If some commie or sheikh owns those bonds, more wealth flows out of the US and then back in to buy more land, bonds, US businesses etc...

Would you rather be the owner of those investments getting richer and more powerful or the purchaser of goods and services that are losing value?

The idea is to have free and fair trade that is relatively balanced so both sides benefit approximately equally. But we don't have that and haven't for a very long time. The theory turned out to be wrong because conditions were so unequal. That's why we are now a debtor country, why foreigners sometimes saber rattle about selling our bonds, and partially why standards of living are so flat in the US for so many years for so many people.

I used to be 100% hard core free trader. I still believe that 100 years from now free trade will turn out to have been right. But the trip over the last 30 years has been a disaster and there's more to come. Sometimes you have to balance the 150 year outlook with what is happening to people now.

Clocker
03-22-2018, 03:54 PM
We have a different definition of fair .

I showed you mine, now you show me yours.

The idea is to have free and fair trade that is relatively balanced so both sides benefit approximately equally.By definition, fair trade as determined by the government is the opposite of free trade. Why does it have to be balanced? There is a liquor store near me with which I have a totally unbalanced trade situation. I buy stuff from them, they buy nothing from me. I am happy with that, and they appear to be also.

How many states have an unbalanced trade situation with California, buying more produce, high tech services, etc., than they sell to California. Why is that not a problem for those states?

The "capital surplus" is then invested (usually by FOREIGNERS) in US assets. It is money invested here, but US citizens often do not own those assets. Foreigners do and they get to decide what to invest in, when, at what price, and at what interest rate. If they don't like the deal, they can dump US assets and crush the economy.So if BMW get upset with us, they can dump their US car factories and crush our economy? How would that work?

A lot of "American" assets are not owned by US citizens. How many foreign interests own what percentage of GE or Ford? It doesn't matter. Those foreign owners of US assets care more about their personal investments than their home country politics.

fast4522
03-22-2018, 05:13 PM
I showed you mine, now you show me yours.

By definition, fair trade as determined by the government is the opposite of free trade. Why does it have to be balanced? There is a liquor store near me with which I have a totally unbalanced trade situation. I buy stuff from them, they buy nothing from me. I am happy with that, and they appear to be also.

How many states have an unbalanced trade situation with California, buying more produce, high tech services, etc., than they sell to California. Why is that not a problem for those states?

So if BMW get upset with us, they can dump their US car factories and crush our economy? How would that work?

A lot of "American" assets are not owned by US citizens. How many foreign interests own what percentage of GE or Ford? It doesn't matter. Those foreign owners of US assets care more about their personal investments than their home country politics.

Clocker, I often look for an entree point into the thread. Today we are all over trade, I'll tell you in a general we trusted a cartload of asshole politicians and instead of operating in the best interest of these United States they sold us down the river. China has many company's running at no profit to supply jobs to their mainland, they are commies and can force that. I am in no way saying this is always the case but it is way different there. Here we have a duly elected President who operates hands on in being negotiator in deals, I say do not sell this President short because he loves our country. As a whole this country is not in the mood in trusting another cartload of asshole politicians in trade, just watch John Kasich & Jeff Flake get ZERO traction next run for the Presidency.

Clocker
03-22-2018, 06:26 PM
Today we are all over trade, I'll tell you in a general we trusted a cartload of asshole politicians and instead of operating in the best interest of these United States they sold us down the river.

A good argument for keeping the government out of trade.

To repeat, Bush put tariffs on Chinese steel and we lost 200,000 jobs. Trump is doing the same thing. Why would anyone think the outcome will be different this time?

Clocker
03-22-2018, 06:32 PM
Dow falls over 700 points from fear of trade wars.

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday, pressured by worries of a potential trade war and a decline in tech shares. The broader market was also pressured by a decline in bank stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 724.42 points to close at 23,957.89, with Caterpillar, 3M and Boeing as the biggest decliners. The 2.9 percent decline was the worst since Feb. 8.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/22/us-stock-futures-dow-data-fed-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

classhandicapper
03-22-2018, 07:03 PM
I showed you mine, now you show me yours.



A fair deal is when two equally informed people work out an arrangement that is mutually beneficial.

If one side is smarter, more informed, gets away with cheating, etc.. and the results of the deal give a huge benefit to one side, that could easily be a legal deal, but it's not a fair deal.

Your definition of fair is closer to legal.

My definition of fair is results based.


I'm also guessing you won't mind when foreign holdings of US treasuries get so high that when we eventually have a budget crisis, foreigners will be the ones to tell us which programs to cut and how far to raise taxes?

Personally, I think those kinds of decisions should be in US hands, but they are already shifting.

classhandicapper
03-22-2018, 07:13 PM
Dow falls over 700 points from fear of trade wars.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/22/us-stock-futures-dow-data-fed-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

Rich people don't like when they can't bend poor people over and rape them anymore.

I lost plenty of money today (fortunately I have a conservative position because stocks are overvalued). I also made plenty of money since the late 80s when I started investing. I know why I made so much on the way up. Part of it was that the US sold out workers so guys like me that didn't lose their jobs could make a lot more money investing and getting very comfortable while millions of other middle class people like me became poor. The net of it all was the rich got richer and a lot of people got poor.

fast4522
03-22-2018, 08:47 PM
A good argument for keeping the government out of trade.

To repeat, Bush put tariffs on Chinese steel and we lost 200,000 jobs. Trump is doing the same thing. Why would anyone think the outcome will be different this time?

Forget Bush, he was way over his head in follow through process. Obviously not a real thinker in letting those around him control a much higher percentage than he should have. President Donald J. Trump intends that the wake behind him is not survivable to those he is deliberate in running over. Consider him very dangerous to the other side and not ours. He is very capable of shattering all maximums that you think that you know something about.

Clocker
03-22-2018, 09:33 PM
the US sold out workers so guys like me that didn't lose their jobs could make a lot more money investing and getting very comfortable while millions of other middle class people like me became poor. The net of it all was the rich got richer and a lot of people got poor.

Another good reason to keep the government out of the private sector, especially foreign trade. :p

PaceAdvantage
03-22-2018, 11:29 PM
Dow falls over 700 points from fear of trade wars.Yeah, that little thing about raising interest rates yesterday probably had nothing to do with the drop at all...

Clocker
03-22-2018, 11:44 PM
Yeah, that little thing about raising interest rates yesterday probably had nothing to do with the drop at all...

But Trump signing an executive order today imposing $60 billion in tariffs had nothing to do with the drop either?

President Donald Trump (https://www.cnbc.com/donald-trump/) signed an executive memorandum on Thursday that would impose retaliatory tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese imports.https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/22/trump-moves-to-slap-china-with-50-billion-in-tariffs-over-intellectual-property-theft.html

PaceAdvantage
03-23-2018, 12:02 AM
But Trump signing an executive order today imposing $60 billion in tariffs had nothing to do with the drop either?Did not say that at all.

fast4522
03-23-2018, 01:59 AM
How little people listen, the President said this EO is just the start.

Clocker
03-23-2018, 02:58 AM
How little people listen, the President said this EO is just the start.
Well, this time he got it right. It is the start of trade wars that kill American jobs and raise consumer prices.

Ocala Mike
03-23-2018, 06:49 AM
Yeah, that little thing about raising interest rates yesterday probably had nothing to do with the drop at all...

Three or four rate hikes have been baked into the cake for months. Notwithstanding your sarcasm, you are correct in that it had very little effect.

elysiantraveller
03-23-2018, 09:19 AM
Three or four rate hikes have been baked into the cake for months. Notwithstanding your sarcasm, you are correct in that it had very little effect.

My pricing at work was largely unaffected by the rate announcement. I'm expecting an improvement today though as demand for debt goes up a bit with the announcement yesterday.

reckless
03-23-2018, 09:55 AM
The ridiculous GOP omnibus bill had more to do with the yuuuge market drop than anything else.

But when you add in the incorrect and stupid decision by new Fed Chief Powell to raise rates, plus signalling more rate hikes to come, it was easy for the market to sell off bigtime.

We have had signs of a slowing economy now for months which is tipped by the flattening yield curve yet no Fed talking head mentioned this previously, at least I haven't heard any Fed warnings of late.

The Fed's decision to raise rates is a warning that they are simply clueless about the economy as usual.

PaceAdvantage
03-23-2018, 10:05 AM
Three or four rate hikes have been baked into the cake for months. Notwithstanding your sarcasm, you are correct in that it had very little effect.I was watching the futures market in real time when the announcement came out...some very WIDE swings in the minutes after the announcement, including a 200 point Dow-equivalent swing within the first 5 minutes, which doesn't sound like a totally expected announcement to me...

elysiantraveller
03-23-2018, 10:29 AM
I was watching the futures market in real time when the announcement came out...some very WIDE swings in the minutes after the announcement, including a 200 point Dow-equivalent swing within the first 5 minutes, which doesn't sound like a totally expected announcement to me...

The rate hikes, China tariff announcement (which if you actually read it is pretty watered down), and looming shutdown with veto threat will create some more volatility.

I'm locking up a bunch of my stuff this morning instead of floating.

Saratoga_Mike
03-23-2018, 11:40 AM
:lol::lol::lol::lol:

So we place tariffs on steel imports but then offer exemptions to our leading importers (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-factbox/factbox-top-steel-exporters-to-the-united-states-idUSKCN1GE10I)...

No, my friend, this is an optics victory for the #Maga crowd that likely does nothing.

A few weeks ago, Trump held a meeting at the WH with mainly steel execs. During the meeting, he impulsively announced a 25% tariff on steel imports* (he also announced a tariff on aluminum, too, but let's focus on steel). There will be NO exemptions, he thundered. None! What about Canada? No!

Fast forward a few days, well maybe we will exempt Canada and Mexico. Earlier this week, well maybe we will exempt 30+ countries. Why the change in heart? Is it possible, just possible, that Trump thought the US imported a ton of steel from China,** then he found out that wasn't the case? I think it is, just another example of his visceral ignorance on display for all.

*The Commerce Dept had produced a fairly comprehensive report on this matter (Section 232), which was released prior to this meeting. Did Trump read it? Hah. It didn't contain any pictures. I'm sure his aides briefed him on the matter at a very high level, as one of the report's options was a 24% tariff on steel.

**China is the largest producer of steel in the world, and at times has dumped steel in the US via Vietnam. This issue was addressed months ago, and it was working.

Saratoga_Mike
03-23-2018, 11:45 AM
The ridiculous GOP omnibus bill had more to do with the yuuuge market drop than anything else.

But when you add in the incorrect and stupid decision by new Fed Chief Powell to raise rates, plus signalling more rate hikes to come, it was easy for the market to sell off bigtime.

We have had signs of a slowing economy now for months which is tipped by the flattening yield curve yet no Fed talking head mentioned this previously, at least I haven't heard any Fed warnings of late.

The Fed's decision to raise rates is a warning that they are simply clueless about the economy as usual.

Fed officials have certainly talked about the yield curve. Do a few Google searches. I see you're positioning yourself to blame the Fed for any slowdown. Love it.

Inner Dirt
03-23-2018, 01:10 PM
Everybody seems to be screaming all steel and aluminum prices will go up whether they are from tariffed countries or not and also that suppliers will raise prices immediately even before they receive tariffed goods.

Small sample but I just called today to place an order for some steel that I was quoted $6 for 12 foot lengths on 2-8-18. Today's price for the same quantity was $5.55 each, from the same supplier and the same mill.

Saratoga_Mike
03-23-2018, 01:23 PM
The ridiculous GOP omnibus bill had more to do with the yuuuge market drop than anything else.

But when you add in the incorrect and stupid decision by new Fed Chief Powell to raise rates, plus signalling more rate hikes to come, it was easy for the market to sell off bigtime.

We have had signs of a slowing economy now for months which is tipped by the flattening yield curve yet no Fed talking head mentioned this previously, at least I haven't heard any Fed warnings of late.

The Fed's decision to raise rates is a warning that they are simply clueless about the economy as usual.

More empty bluster...can we fault "The Deep State?"

"Update:

Just hours after threatening a veto, President Trump appeared set to back down and sign a sweeping $1.3 trillion spending bill passed by Congress early Friday and avoid a government shutdown, according to senior legislative aides."

Source: wapo.com

Clocker
03-23-2018, 01:26 PM
More empty bluster...can we fault "The Deep State?"

"Update:

Just hours after threatening a veto, President Trump appeared set to back down and sign a sweeping $1.3 trillion spending bill passed by Congress early Friday and avoid a government shutdown, according to senior legislative aides."

Source: wapo.com

No doubt he changed his mind after he read it to see what was in it. :p

classhandicapper
03-23-2018, 02:53 PM
Yeah, that little thing about raising interest rates yesterday probably had nothing to do with the drop at all...

Rising rates are almost always the straw that breaks the camel's back.

I've been arguing for a couple of years that stocks are overpriced, that it was likely the end of this cycle would coincide with Trump being president, and the pinheads in the media would use that as an attack against him. He will get all the blame even though almost all the excesses and bad Fed and fiscal policy (negative real rates, QE, trillions of new debt) occurred under Obama.

I would say the odds of me being right are getting higher.

reckless
03-23-2018, 03:23 PM
Fed officials have certainly talked about the yield curve. Do a few Google searches. I see you're positioning yourself to blame the Fed for any slowdown. Love it.

Fed officials? I have heard many Wall Street analysts say such a thing, but not many 'Fed officials', I assure you. I do not need any Google searches but it's possible that maybe some have said so Mike.

Positioning myself?? For what?

You've become another nitwit that was totally wrong from 2015 to now on a myriad of issues... so you must save some face and have become a snark.

I am not positioning myself for anything -- I have been correctly ahead of all you second guessers for years now and I am willing to bet I'll do so in future as well.

Jesus effing christ... this place has become a joke. Sorry.

classhandicapper
03-23-2018, 03:26 PM
I am not positioning myself for anything -- I have been correctly ahead of all you second guessers for years now and I am willing to bet I'll do so in future as well.



So what's your view on markets?

reckless
03-23-2018, 04:33 PM
So what's your view on markets?

The market will swing big both up and down until late summer, then drop precipitously -- just in time for the GOP to suffer a bloodbath in the November elections.

There will absolutely no reason to support the GOP as of today. They were on shaky ground anyway, and this budget bill will is the final dagger in the GOP.

Trump surrendered today and a 3% unemployment rate along with a 30,000 Dow Jones won't save him, the GOP or the country.

The GOP and Trump blew the opportunity of a lifetime today.

Too bad you didn't ask me what I thought on 11-3-16 when the Dow was 17,500 or so when I made the call of the Century. You could have made a ton on money. It is all right there in the Financial Room of OT.

Ah c'est le vie ... this has become a place of second guessers truth be told, and the fun is gone, sad to say.

I don't mean you, btw. Not by any means.

reckless
03-23-2018, 04:40 PM
More empty bluster...can we fault "The Deep State?"

"Update:

Just hours after threatening a veto, President Trump appeared set to back down and sign a sweeping $1.3 trillion spending bill passed by Congress early Friday and avoid a government shutdown, according to senior legislative aides."

Source: wapo.com

Empty bluster? 'The Deep State' ... child, I said the Fed made a mistake in raising rates with a yield curve inverting.

You say that's empty bluster? 'Deep State' -- I never said a word along those lines.

If you wanna be a snark you need to know what you say -- and what you post. Beginning in the historic summer of 2015, you've proved to be clueless on a myriad of issues. As of now, you still are clueless ... and a snark.

Clocker
03-23-2018, 04:56 PM
Just hours after threatening a veto, President Trump appeared set to back down and sign a sweeping $1.3 trillion spending bill passed by Congress early Friday and avoid a government shutdown, according to senior legislative aides."

That is either a weak rationalization or a display of ignorance on the part of the administration.

If Trump vetoed the bill, Congress would have to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government funded and go back to work writing another budget bill. They wouldn't be able to take their 2 week break that starts today.

This is not exactly rare, nor is it rocket science. Congress has already passed 4 or 5 such continuing resolutions in fiscal 2018 because of an inability to pass a budget.

Tom
03-23-2018, 05:16 PM
While those scumbags are on vacation, use the $1.8 billion to build a wall around DC, where it will do some immediate good.

classhandicapper
03-24-2018, 09:53 PM
Too bad you didn't ask me what I thought on 11-3-16 when the Dow was 17,500 or so when I made the call of the Century. You could have made a ton on money. It is all right there in the Financial Room of OT.

I'm not much of a trader.

I'm more of a value oriented guy. I buy things I think are are cheap and sell things I think are expensive. But I have to tell you, I've made around 6-7 meaningful mistakes in my investment life. All but 2 were selling things I thought were expensive. If I could go back into my records and figure out what I would have if I never ever sold a share of anything I ever owned, I know I would have way more money. I just don't know how painful the total would be.

I've been in a conservative position for a couple of years. I still own some stocks, but it's mostly one position I've owned since the late 80s, a bunch of gold mines I've been accumulating on dips for the last couple of years, and one telecom company I bought a few months ago.

If this market tanks, I'll feel some pain, but it will be worth it because I have more dry powder in terms of dollars and percentage since I started. I'd love to start putting it to work.

Clocker
03-25-2018, 04:16 PM
Trump announced a few exemptions from steel tariffs. He said that countries not on the exempt list could apply for an exemption.

By one account, those exemption account for about 80% of US steel imports. The major impact of the tariffs will now be on Russia, Turkey and Japan.

In a presidential proclamation published late on Thursday, Trump said he would suspend tariffs for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and the European Union, the U.S.’s biggest trading partner, until May 1, 2018 as discussions continue.

After May 1, Trump would decide whether to permanently exempt the countries based on the status of talks, the White House said in a statement.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-steel/trump-temporarily-excludes-eu-six-other-allies-from-steel-tariffs-idUSKBN1GZ0ET

classhandicapper
03-25-2018, 04:57 PM
Trump announced a few exemptions from steel tariffs. He said that countries not on the exempt list could apply for an exemption.

By one account, those exemption account for about 80% of US steel imports. The major impact of the tariffs will now be on Russia, Turkey and Japan.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-steel/trump-temporarily-excludes-eu-six-other-allies-from-steel-tariffs-idUSKBN1GZ0ET

90% of what's going on is posturing and most of it is being misreported by people with political/economic agendas or that have no idea what they are talking about.

I would wait until the end to see if ends up with a backtrack, a trade war that does damage, an improvement to our trade deficit as a percent of GDP, or more importantly renegotiated trade deals.

Clocker
03-25-2018, 05:15 PM
90% of what's going on is posturing

Does anyone except Trump and his fans think that the Chinese don't know this? :rolleyes:

PaceAdvantage
03-26-2018, 04:10 PM
So much for the tariff market crash

elysiantraveller
03-26-2018, 05:01 PM
So much for the tariff market crash

There aren't any tariffs. Despite what media outlets are saying from both sides. Nothing is actually happening at the moment but a the United States citing grievances and giving the Chinese 6 months to appeal and cooperate.

This is sound economic policy.

Saratoga_Mike
03-26-2018, 05:36 PM
So much for the tariff market crash

Concerns were alleviated by early morning WSJ article - reported behind the scenes maneuvering to prevent further escalation. We shall see.

elysiantraveller
03-26-2018, 06:04 PM
Concerns were alleviated by early morning WSJ article - reported behind the scenes maneuvering to prevent further escalation. We shall see.

My understanding thus far is the administration has noted unfair practices and are using tariffs as leverage for terms. A timeframe of 6 months for negotiations before anything actually comes to fruition is what I believe is on the table right now.

The Chinese for their part at least seemed receptive to talks.

The caps on Chinese investment here though doesn't make any sense to me.

Saratoga_Mike
03-26-2018, 06:27 PM
My understanding thus far is the administration has noted unfair practices and are using tariffs as leverage for terms. A timeframe of 6 months for negotiations before anything actually comes to fruition is what I believe is on the table right now.

The Chinese for their part at least seemed receptive to talks.

The caps on Chinese investment here though doesn't make any sense to me.

There are trade complaints filed with the Commerce Dept and its respective entities on a fairly consistent basis.

On trade, the Trump admin has taken three notable actions:

1) Stopped the Chinese from circumventing high tariffs on steel by shipping it to Vietnam, "adding value," then dumping it onto the US market. This happened in December 2017, I believe. It's consistent with actions taken by GWB and Obama, both of whom oversaw Commerce Departments that looked to protect US steel producers.

2) A few weeks ago, Trump announced Section 232 tariffs of 25% on all steel imports (based on national security concerns). Over the past few weeks, this action has been watered down, exempting a large number of countries. Tariff-exempted countries may still be subject to quotas (e.g., the deal announced with South Korea today).

3) Last week, Trump announced plans to place tariffs on primarily IP-related products coming out of China. The formal list is forthcoming.

Item 3 coupled with item 2 started investors to worry about an all-out trade war. This morning the WSJ reported that high-level Chinese and US officials are working behind the scenes to avert such a scenario. Whether a tariff has taken hold or not isn't overly relevant to the stock market, if investors believe it will happen in the near to intermediate future.

incoming
03-27-2018, 03:02 AM
Does anyone except Trump and his fans think that the Chinese don't know this? :rolleyes:

Question....If Prez Trump would renegotiate all trade agreements across the board and manage to cut our trade deficits by 25% would that be a good thing?

elysiantraveller
03-27-2018, 08:59 AM
Question....If Prez Trump would renegotiate all trade agreements across the board and manage to cut our trade deficits by 25% would that be a good thing?

Trade deficits don't exist in a vacuum. You have to have something to trade. We have dollars.

This is simple macro-economics stuff.

Simply put we don't make enough stuff they want or could easily make for themselves.

Clocker
03-27-2018, 10:38 AM
Trade deficits don't exist in a vacuum. You have to have something to trade. We have dollars.

This is simple macro-economics stuff.

Simply put we don't make enough stuff they want or could easily make for themselves.

And the dollars come back into this country as investments. That's why China holds over $1 trillion of US Treasury debt. And why so many German and Japanese car companies have built plants here, creating thousands of good jobs for American workers.

Clocker
03-27-2018, 10:53 AM
Question....If Prez Trump would renegotiate all trade agreements across the board and manage to cut our trade deficits by 25% would that be a good thing?

Negotiating trade agreements for Trump means negotiating tariffs. Tariffs are taxes paid by consumers. The Trump campaign admitted that Trump's proposed tariffs would increase the cost of living for the average citizen by 15%. How is that a good thing?

Trump claims that would bring back manufacturing jobs in the US. There is no evidence to support that. America manufactures more than it ever did, with fewer manufacturing jobs than ever. We lost a lot of manufacturing jobs over the last few decades, and 85% of them were lost to automation, not to moving off shore.

incoming
03-27-2018, 11:51 AM
Negotiating trade agreements for Trump means negotiating tariffs. Tariffs are taxes paid by consumers. The Trump campaign admitted that Trump's proposed tariffs would increase the cost of living for the average citizen by 15%. How is that a good thing?

Trump claims that would bring back manufacturing jobs in the US. There is no evidence to support that. America manufactures more than it ever did, with fewer manufacturing jobs than ever. We lost a lot of manufacturing jobs over the last few decades, and 85% of them were lost to automation, not to moving off shore.

I agree that the negotiations will center around tariffs but only on the export side. The dynamics of the tax cuts on business and tax payers should increase USA's leverage, we will be larger consumers. Is my thinking valid?

Clocker
03-27-2018, 01:08 PM
I agree that the negotiations will center around tariffs but only on the export side. The dynamics of the tax cuts on business and tax payers should increase USA's leverage, we will be larger consumers. Is my thinking valid?

Trump wants to decrease the trade deficit. That means fewer imports or more exports or some combination of the two. Higher US tariffs result in fewer imports as the tariffs are passed through to US consumers via higher prices, which means less purchasing power. We either pay the higher costs for imports or we buy higher priced American goods.

Lower foreign tariffs on our exports means more demand for them overseas. Those tariffs will not go down if our tariffs on imports go up. Was Trump just rattling his saber with the steel tariffs to get tariffs on our exports lower? If so, why did he back down on them so quickly?

Here is a long, in-depth look at the Chinese economy. It discusses the major changes China has made, and why they are "winning" and will continue to win unless we change the way that we function. And focus on the trade deficit isn't going to be a factor in that.

"How to Meet the Strategic Challenge Posed by China"

https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/how-to-meet-the-strategic-challenge-posed-by-china/

incoming
03-27-2018, 01:49 PM
Thanks Clocker for the literature, it piqued my curiosity in a couple of additional areas.....the upcoming negotiations will be interesting.

elysiantraveller
03-27-2018, 02:03 PM
Trump wants to decrease the trade deficit. That means fewer imports or more exports or some combination of the two. Higher US tariffs result in fewer imports as the tariffs are passed through to US consumers via higher prices, which means less purchasing power. We either pay the higher costs for imports or we buy higher priced American goods.

Lower foreign tariffs on our exports means more demand for them overseas. Those tariffs will not go down if our tariffs on imports go up. Was Trump just rattling his saber with the steel tariffs to get tariffs on our exports lower? If so, why did he back down on them so quickly?

Here is a long, in-depth look at the Chinese economy. It discusses the major changes China has made, and why they are "winning" and will continue to win unless we change the way that we function. And focus on the trade deficit isn't going to be a factor in that.

"How to Meet the Strategic Challenge Posed by China"

https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/how-to-meet-the-strategic-challenge-posed-by-china/

Good Read.

classhandicapper
03-27-2018, 02:17 PM
The trade deficit should be a major focus of our trade policy because if it isn't our assets and IOUs will keep piling up in the hands of foreigners until they exercise effective control over our currency and fiscal policy.

Why do you think 3rd world countries tend to blow up?

They go further and further into debt to foreigners that eventually lose confidence in the currency of that country and their ability to pay it all back without inflating. So they slowly start pulling their money out. Then a trickle becomes Niagra Falls and kaboom!

They give us more rope to hang ourselves with because we have the reserve currency (and lots of nukes :lol:), but a lot of countries are already slowly trying to diversify their reserves and other assets away from the US dollar.

It would be very foolish to continue on the same path even if you aren't worried about unfair trade practices, different regulations, different standards of living, and other factors stripping jobs out of the US and lowering standards of living for large numbers of people.

PaceAdvantage
03-27-2018, 03:20 PM
Oh crap...tariff crash back on again? :eek:

Tom
03-27-2018, 03:43 PM
We need to put tariffs on crashes.

classhandicapper
03-27-2018, 04:15 PM
Oh crap...tariff crash back on again? :eek:

Maybe we'll finally get a buying opportunity?

fast4522
03-27-2018, 04:29 PM
Negotiating trade agreements for Trump means negotiating tariffs. Tariffs are taxes paid by consumers. The Trump campaign admitted that Trump's proposed tariffs would increase the cost of living for the average citizen by 15%. How is that a good thing?

Trump claims that would bring back manufacturing jobs in the US. There is no evidence to support that. America manufactures more than it ever did, with fewer manufacturing jobs than ever. We lost a lot of manufacturing jobs over the last few decades, and 85% of them were lost to automation, not to moving off shore.

Now I am aiming directly on you, because your too thick to understand President Donald J. Trump in getting more for his buck than previous presidents. Who would think that increased pressure on China would have piss running down Kim Jong-un's fat Fu&*(ng legs. Trump is rocking the world, get used to it.

elysiantraveller
03-27-2018, 05:05 PM
Oh crap...tariff crash back on again? :eek:

Our rates dropped today. Even with the Fed flooding out paper. Seems a lot were short on bonds.

classhandicapper
03-27-2018, 09:06 PM
President Donald J. Trump in getting more for his buck than previous presidents.

People are so preoccupied with their hate for the guy, they are focusing on process, what he said, his stupid tweets, who got fired, whose leaking what, all the bad press, who he slept with, that he didn't deliver 100% exactly what he promised due to politics etc.. That's exactly what the media wants. They are feeding that trying to build an image of him as an out of control disaster so they can win the mid terms and then get rid of him. And half the republicans are right with them.

But when you look at the bottom line, he got a very good conservative on the Supreme Court, got rid of the individual mandate, reduced regulations, reduced taxes, has trading partners at the table, has been deporting illegal alien gang members, made progress against ISIS, and reduced unvetted travel.

That's a lot for the first 15 months and I don't have a problem much of it.

I have 2 problems with him so far.

1. neocons
2. too much wasteful spending (much of which is on congress)

fast4522
03-27-2018, 11:07 PM
People are so preoccupied with their hate for the guy, they are focusing on process, what he said, his stupid tweets, who got fired, whose leaking what, all the bad press, who he slept with, that he didn't deliver 100% exactly what he promised due to politics etc.. That's exactly what the media wants. They are feeding that trying to build an image of him as an out of control disaster so they can win the mid terms and then get rid of him. And half the republicans are right with them.

But when you look at the bottom line, he got a very good conservative on the Supreme Court, got rid of the individual mandate, reduced regulations, reduced taxes, has trading partners at the table, has been deporting illegal alien gang members, made progress against ISIS, and reduced unvetted travel.

That's a lot for the first 15 months and I don't have a problem much of it.

I have 2 problems with him so far.

1. neocons
2. too much wasteful spending (much of which is on congress)

Very worthy problems to have concern with, perhaps you might accept my logic for viewing them.

1. This President employs multi team approach to provide complex pressure to the area he is focusing, in the event he needs correct personnel to run into the live fire and kill them all they are in the room. To not give you extreme caution with that last statement, I will suggest that our President is very confident in his own judgement and also has the largest set of balls in any meeting he attends.

2. I am not so sure as I am as 1. , My gut feeling is our President plays the cards that he is dealt just as or better than any President has. Also during a President's term many times it is incumbent to decide when there is no good answer.

incoming
03-28-2018, 06:08 AM
The trade deficit should be a major focus of our trade policy because if it isn't our assets and IOUs will keep piling up in the hands of foreigners until they exercise effective control over our currency and fiscal policy.

Why do you think 3rd world countries tend to blow up?

They go further and further into debt to foreigners that eventually lose confidence in the currency of that country and their ability to pay it all back without inflating. So they slowly start pulling their money out. Then a trickle becomes Niagra Falls and kaboom!

They give us more rope to hang ourselves with because we have the reserve currency (and lots of nukes :lol:), but a lot of countries are already slowly trying to diversify their reserves and other assets away from the US dollar.

It would be very foolish to continue on the same path even if you aren't worried about unfair trade practices, different regulations, different standards of living, and other factors stripping jobs out of the US and lowering standards of living for large numbers of people.

I agree with you on the trade deficit, I think it is very important in restoring the middle class. For myself, it means jobs, jobs and more jobs. I think the expected rise in consumer prices will be more than offset by the tax cuts. Most Americans would rather see their friends and family with meaningful jobs and send the illegal aliens back to their homelands. I think proof of that point are the many raises, bonuses and meaningful jobs that have already been added before data on the tax cuts could be properly analyzed.

fast4522
04-01-2018, 10:08 PM
I agree with you on the trade deficit, I think it is very important in restoring the middle class. For myself, it means jobs, jobs and more jobs. I think the expected rise in consumer prices will be more than offset by the tax cuts. Most Americans would rather see their friends and family with meaningful jobs and send the illegal aliens back to their homelands. I think proof of that point are the many raises, bonuses and meaningful jobs that have already been added before data on the tax cuts could be properly analyzed.

Except that China blinked and now South Korea is going to let twice as many cars be sold by us into their country. It is clear why Rex W. Tillerson was fired, first he was outside the loop the same time policy strategic maneuvers against China was going on leak free.

Clocker
04-01-2018, 10:50 PM
South Korea is going to let twice as many cars be sold by us into their country.

American cars don't pass South Korean safety standards. South Korea currently exempts 25,000 cars per year from those standards for each American auto maker for import there. In exchange for exempting South Korea from steel tariffs, they will now exempt 50,000 cars from each US car maker from their safety standards.

South Koreans don't buy a lot of American cars. Ford sold less than 11,000 there last year. Fiat Chrysler sold about 7,000. GM sold about 2,000.

The art of the deal. :p

http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/27/news/companies/south-korea-us-automakers/index.html

elysiantraveller
04-02-2018, 08:12 AM
American cars don't pass South Korean safety standards. South Korea currently exempts 25,000 cars per year from those standards for each American auto maker for import there. In exchange for exempting South Korea from steel tariffs, they will now exempt 50,000 cars from each US car maker from their safety standards.

South Koreans don't buy a lot of American cars. Ford sold less than 11,000 there last year. Fiat Chrysler sold about 7,000. GM sold about 2,000.

The art of the deal. :p

http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/27/news/companies/south-korea-us-automakers/index.html

It's all optics. The Chinese are hitting back against the Steel tariff today.

Clocker
04-02-2018, 02:45 PM
It's all optics. The Chinese are hitting back against the Steel tariff today.

Oops. :rolleyes:


Everyone Loses as China Escalates Trade War With Tariffs on American Pork, Fruit, and More (http://reason.com/blog/2018/04/02/everyone-loses-as-china-escalates-trade)

China announced new tariffs on 128 American imports yesterday, primarily targeting agricultural products such as pork, nuts, fruit, and wine. In a statement, the Chinese government said it was imposing the new tariffs "in order to safeguard China's interests and balance the losses caused by the United States' additional tariffs."

Regardless of whether it's Trump or Chinese President Xi Jinping ordering the tariffs, Americans stand to lose.

The trade barriers Trump issued to prop up the steel and aluminum industries will end up increasing costs for thousands of downstream businesses—by one count, there are 46 American jobs in steel-consuming industries for every steel-producing job in the country.

Now retaliatory tariffs may cut off overseas markets for American farms and wineries. If American pork, wine, and other products become more expensive in China, Chinese importers might start getting their supplies elsewhere. Spanish pork (http://www.worldstopexports.com/pork-exports-by-country/), Chilean wine (http://www.worldstopexports.com/wine-exports-country/), and Australian nuts (https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/top-almond-producing-countries.html) could replace American products in one of the world's largest and fastest-growing economies.
http://reason.com/blog/2018/04/02/everyone-loses-as-china-escalates-trade

schweitz
04-02-2018, 03:50 PM
It's a joke. China owns the largest pork producer in the US (Smithfield). I doubt that they will either not import their own pork or pay a tariff if they do.

woodtoo
04-02-2018, 05:16 PM
Chinese tariffs on American goods $3 billion
American tariffs on Chinese goods $50 billion

This is not a trade war America will lose. China paid $5 billion for Smithfield in 2013
30% more than it was worth. China cant feed itself. Game set match.

PaceAdvantage
04-02-2018, 05:24 PM
Tariff crash is definitely back on...:eek:

classhandicapper
04-02-2018, 06:57 PM
It's a joke. China owns the largest pork producer in the US (Smithfield). I doubt that they will either not import their own pork or pay a tariff if they do.

lmao

We have trading partners that have been eating our lunch for decades at the table renegotiating deals and North Korea running to the Chinese to figure out how they can disarm, remove the embargo, and begin international trade without being overthrown, and everyone is in a tizzy.

Me thinks even republicans are watching too much Rachel MadCow.

fast4522
04-02-2018, 08:29 PM
I see posts about tariff's & Trump being on the wrong side of history, I am pleased someone is trying something different. Oh he is so wrong and going to cost the consumer etc, in a larger picture it is just a consumption tax that would never pass under its own light. The regular family would not pay more only consuming the normal amounts, on the other hand someone who pays 70k for a car is not your average family guy. As for China who has NO play and can only lose on tariff's I want to see President cut deeper into them. Am I going to cry for the Walton's of Walmart, please I really could give a shit less. Reciprocal tariff everyone, if Europe implodes oh well.

elysiantraveller
04-02-2018, 11:09 PM
This whole thread at this point is hilarious.

:1: China's tariff response today was in regards to the Steel tariff not the $50 billion tariff that hasn't happened yet.

:2: Not one person thinks this is a good move.

:3: We will NOT win a trade war with China if it comes to that.

But I digress Trump and all you guys who have demonstrated a serious lack of knowledge about economics are correct. ;)

Clocker
04-02-2018, 11:15 PM
:2: Not one person thinks this is a good move.



Trump, his nationalist trade advisers, and his cronies in the steel industry all think it's better than two scoops of ice cream. :p

elysiantraveller
04-02-2018, 11:55 PM
Trump, his nationalist trade advisers, and his cronies in the steel industry all think it's better than two scoops of ice cream. :p

For those arguing the stock market angle:

DJIA after a year of establishment Republican agenda... 24,719.

DJIA after first quarter of Trump-base campaign idiocy... 23,644.

PaceAdvantage
04-03-2018, 12:23 AM
Establishment Republican agenda...:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Like anybody wanted THAT four years ago...

elysiantraveller
04-03-2018, 12:36 AM
Establishment Republican agenda...:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Like anybody wanted THAT four years ago...

Good quip.

Explain how my point is wrong...?

We aren't arguing about votes we are arguing about sound economic policy.

Deregulation and Tax cuts = sound economic policy.

Tariffs, regulations, and trade wars =/= not sound economic policy.

Is the market not reflecting that?

incoming
04-03-2018, 12:59 AM
5 day change in the DOW....UP 2.31%
52 week change in the DOW....UP 14.43%
20 day average DOW....UP 3.33%

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/indices?viewName=technical

ankle bitters are everywhere :)

Clocker
04-03-2018, 02:11 AM
I don't follow the markets closely, but I am seeing a lot that indicates increasing volatility and worry.

The S&P 500 gained or lost 1 percent in a single day 23 times this quarter; in most of 2016 and 2017, it went for months without a single such move.

The 81 percent jump in the Cboe Volatility Index tells the story of a quarter when stocks went from euphoria to correction in a matter of weeks. Optimism over Donald Trump’s tax cuts triggered unprecedented inflows into U.S equity funds in January as the S&P 500 jumped the most in 22 months. Then, a popular short volatility trade blew up, triggering a 10 percent correction that wiped $2 trillion from U.S. stocks.

March failed to calm nerves amid White House reshuffles, a trade spat with China and a slump in tech megacaps on concern over tighter regulatory scrutiny. The scorecard by the end of the quarter: the S&P 500 fell 1.2 percent, the Nasdaq 100 Index rose 2.9 percent, small caps slid 0.4 percent. It was the worst stretch in at least a year for all of them.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/vix-up-81-25-shows-extent-of-stock-market-pain-in-jarring-quarter/ar-AAvgqAI

elysiantraveller
04-03-2018, 02:20 AM
5 day change in the DOW....UP 2.31%
52 week change in the DOW....UP 14.43%
20 day average DOW....UP 3.33%

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/indices?viewName=technical

ankle bitters are everywhere :)

No ankle biting simply pointing towards a departure in policy strategy and the market reaction.

Since no one here has actually provided anything stating the soundness of this economic policy I'm just having fun in here at this point.

If we were to just count sourced links other than rhetoric clocker and I have a vastly larger tally at the moment. For those actually keeping track of thr event's so far and the hilarity of this forum here is what's happened.

:1: Trump announces steel tariffs.
:2: Major importers, mostly our allies, threaten retaliation.
:3: PA/OT reaction: to hell with Europe we'll kick their ass.
:4: Those countries granted exemption.

Thats literally the play by play for this... now because they've already been caught either A) being played by Trump and that can't possibly be true it's B) that wasn't the real goal it's the Chinese and "we're gonna kick their ass..."

Until the goal posts move again. :popcorn:

incoming
04-03-2018, 02:44 AM
Dear Mr. elysiantraveller,

I will give you this ....you are a master at walking sideways and nitpicking. Please spare me your personal attack speech...out

https://elysiantraveller.wordpress.com/

elysiantraveller
04-03-2018, 03:39 AM
Didn't see any personal attacks in there. Just a breakdown thus far of what's happened.

elysiantraveller
04-03-2018, 03:56 AM
Reciprocal tariff everyone, if Europe implodes oh well.

Except he didn't do that...

Who are you trying to shit, cars alone will bring Germany to its knees, I could care less that you have to pay 30% more for your BMW. Everyone living paycheck to paycheck will laugh at you.

Or that either...

He didn't really do anything... the steel tariff was all bluster to fire up his base, piss off our allies, manufacture market volatility, and accomplish nothing.

incoming
04-03-2018, 05:39 AM
I don't follow the markets closely, but I am seeing a lot that indicates increasing volatility and worry.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/vix-up-81-25-shows-extent-of-stock-market-pain-in-jarring-quarter/ar-AAvgqAI

On target....job reports will be interesting this Friday. I think we both can agree the economy is more than primed for a good recovery.

classhandicapper
04-03-2018, 01:39 PM
The stock market was doomed to a serious correction no matter who was president because the valuations by most standards are as high or higher than at any point in history (including 1929, 2000, and 2008) and the Fed was going into a tightening cycle. I've been saying since before the election republicans would probably be better off losing because they would get blamed by the pinheads and liars in the media for the almost inevitable bear market that was coming. No one knows when these things will happen, but you can know valuations are too high.

Almost everything Trump has done so far has increased the intrinsic value of American business whether it be cuts in corporate taxes, allowing companies to bring cash earned overseas back home without a significant double taxation, and reducing regulations. This is not debatable. It's math. If it wasn't for Trump policy the stock market would almost certainly be a lot lower than it is now because the businesses themselves would be worth less than they are right now.

It's shocking to me how republicans are falling for liberal propaganda and the ignorance coming from the media because they started from a position of hating Trump and are looking for affirmation of what they originally believed instead of trying to figure what is actually happening like they usually do.

incoming
04-03-2018, 01:58 PM
I got out of stocks in 2010 and moved to Forex. I am thinking seriously about putting 25.% of my bank back in stocks for all the reasons you mentioned. I will wait at least 6 months and see how things shake out. I'm a day trader, but I will be an investor in stocks.

classhandicapper
04-03-2018, 02:24 PM
I got out of stocks in 2010 and moved to Forex. I am thinking seriously about putting 25.% of my bank back in stocks for all the reasons you mentioned. I will wait at least 6 months and see how things shake out. I'm a day trader, but I will be an investor in stocks.

I'm never totally out, but I slowly took some chips off the table over the least 2-3 years, raised cash, and built a position in gold/silver miners. I'm waiting for another 10% pull back and then maybe I'll start nibbling again at other things. I'm not a timer at all. I just try to buy great companies at sensible prices for the long term. Prices simply haven't been sensible enough for my taste to want to buy or keep much. But unquestionably, Trump's policy has made stocks more attractive than they were before he took over.

Saratoga_Mike
04-03-2018, 03:12 PM
I got out of stocks in 2010 and moved to Forex. I am thinking seriously about putting 25.% of my bank back in stocks for all the reasons you mentioned. I will wait at least 6 months and see how things shake out. I'm a day trader, but I will be an investor in stocks.

In the middle of 2010, the S&P 500 traded at 11.2x forward earnings. Currently that metric stands at 16.3x. In 2010, operating margins for the S&P 500 averaged 14.3%. At present, that metric is 16.3%, very full by historical standards. Central banks around the world have flooded the globe with liquidity since 2010.

So what's different now? Stocks are arguably expensive, not cheap. Margins are arguably full, not quasi-depressed. By late fall, central banks could be in contractionary mode, not expansionary mode. In the long run, betting against the US stock market is almost always a losing proposition, but it's hard to believe the market hasn't already discounted Trump's/GOP's market friendly policies.

fast4522
04-03-2018, 07:07 PM
elysiantraveller, Expect things to happen in steps as prioritized.

Today the focus is China China China, if you follow President Trump he does what he says. Maybe not when he says it but more like "stay tuned more to come".

incoming
04-04-2018, 01:49 AM
In the middle of 2010, the S&P 500 traded at 11.2x forward earnings. Currently that metric stands at 16.3x. In 2010, operating margins for the S&P 500 averaged 14.3%. At present, that metric is 16.3%, very full by historical standards. Central banks around the world have flooded the globe with liquidity since 2010.

So what's different now? Stocks are arguably expensive, not cheap. Margins are arguably full, not quasi-depressed. By late fall, central banks could be in contractionary mode, not expansionary mode. In the long run, betting against the US stock market is almost always a losing proposition, but it's hard to believe the market hasn't already discounted Trump's/GOP's market friendly policies.

Don' t want to carry the thread any more further afield. Short answer....I'm a technician not a fundamentalist....out.

Clocker
04-05-2018, 04:14 PM
The administration is preparing a tariff filing on more than 1,300 specific Chinese imports. Most of the products listed appear to be machinery or parts to be used by American manufacturers.

About two-thirds of our imports from China are parts or machinery used by US manufacturers in the production of American made products. So all costs of tariffs will be passed through to the American consumer.

Chinese retaliatory tariffs on American exports are expected, which will ultimately hurt American businesses that won't be able to sell their products in China, one of the world's fastest growing markets.

In a 58-page filing, the Office of the United States Trade Representative argues that the new tariffs are necessary to counteract China's unfair use and theft of American intellectual property and technology. The tariffs will not take affect immediately, but will be subject to a public hearing on May 15 with a final decision on the tariffs expected by mid-summer.

http://reason.com/blog/2018/04/05/heres-the-tariffs-that-will-piss-you-off