Maiden dropdown/workout system that works!

[Bill Cullen]

I'm profitable for five years running since I started using this spot play:

For maiden claiming sprints at 6 furlongs or less on the dirt:

1) The potential horse must be droping down from a maiden special weight race to maiden claiming company today.
2) The potential horse must have been at least third at one of the four calls in its last race.
3) Since its last race and within the last 8 days, the potential horse must have worked at least 4 furlongs or longer on the dirt with at least 9 other horses working at that same distance on the same day AND the potential horse's workout time must be in the top third of the horses working out at that distance on that day.
4) The potential horse is a bet if it goes off at betweeen 4/1 to 8/1 inclusive.

That's it.

Bill C

[Turfday]

I don't buy your number 3) above at all. I have a private clocker that works for diligently for me (National Turf) and provides a daily workout report.

On any given day, at least at the big tracks, there are a number of workouts that are missed, the final times are incorrect, and the association clockers (the ones that provide the final times) will sometimes mis-identify certain horses. Also, when the clockers MISS a workout time but know a certain horse worked, they will CALL a trainer on the phone and ask HIM the workout time. Do you really think most trainers are going to give them an accurate time?

To prove this and satisfy your own curiousity, simple go out in the early a.m. to one of the big tracks and you'll see for yourself the difficulty in relying on number 3) as a factor.

This, of course, goes for any system that relies on the number of morning workouts or final workout times.

You are trying to quantify something in this case, number 3) above, that is unquantifiable.

[Tom]

But he is profitable after 5 years. That's the bottom line.

[Pace Cap'n]

Bill,

How many plays per year do you average with that criteria?

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Pace Cap'n
Bill,

How many plays per year do you average with that criteria?

Maybe a hundred plays over five years. There abouts.

Bill C

[hurrikane]

"MAYBE" a hundred plays over 5 years.

Bill, do you really know how many plays over 5 years. And if you don't how do you know it is profitable.

I would be surprised if you got 100 bets over 5 years. Everything you spell out spell big time chalk to me! I'd be surprised if you got 100 bets over 4-1.

What are you exact numbers if you don't mind me asking

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
"MAYBE" a hundred plays over 5 years.

Bill, do you really know how many plays over 5 years. And if you don't how do you know it is profitable.

I would be surprised if you got 100 bets over 5 years. Everything you spell out spell big time chalk to me! I'd be surprised if you got 100 bets over 4-1.

What are you exact numbers if you don't mind me asking

I don't mind.

In my notebook from the time I have an entry saying 71 plays to date. I remember making about an additional 25 plays but did not write down. As to the profit, i can tell you that exactly:

$7.20 since I kept a jar with with money I wagered on for this system in the jar. I started with a hundred bucks and the last time i checked I had $107.20 in the jar.

I haven't played the system in about 10 months.

And I was wrong on one thing: it's been over 8 years since I started using this sytem, not 5 years.

Hurrikane, this system is a variation of another maiden system I also posted on this website.

Bill C

[so.cal.fan]

Doesn't seem like this system would be profitable in So. Calif. Bill.....players jump all over droppers from MSW to MDNCL.
It probably used to be a winning angle......however, it is so heavily touted around these tracks.....doubt you would show a profit. Win percentage is probably still intact.
Another "new problem" we have here in So. Cal. is the "super trainer factor"......now I love Jeff Mullins, in fact I'm getting a picture of him to put on my wall....LOL, but with guys like Jeff ready to jump in and claim a decent maiden for $32K......guys just aren't dropping anymore. Wesley Ward used to drop in a maiden for $32 that was worth more, not lately......:(

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Doesn't seem like this system would be profitable in So. Calif. Bill.....players jump all over droppers from MSW to MDNCL.
It probably used to be a winning angle......however, it is so heavily touted around these tracks.....doubt you would show a profit. Win percentage is probably still intact.
Another "new problem" we have here in So. Cal. is the "super trainer factor"......now I love Jeff Mullins, in fact I'm getting a picture of him to put on my wall....LOL, but with guys like Jeff ready to jump in and claim a decent maiden for $32K......guys just aren't dropping anymore. Wesley Ward used to drop in a maiden for $32 that was worth more, not lately......:(

There are many ways to skin a cat. Your comments on my comments seem germane, but I have no real take on the Southern Californnia scene.

yours in good faith,

Bill Cullen

[hurrikane]

$7.20 in 8 yrs.

helps explain the 'recreational handicapper' thread you started.

Also Bill,

It would really help if you would'nt quote everyone's entire post in your reply. I think we are all smart enough to figure out who and what you are responding too.

curious...do you keep a jar for each one of your spot plays?

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR

curious...do you keep a jar for each one of your spot plays?

I used to keep my system monies in separate places and a jar was one of the places where I kept this system's cash.

Bill C

[so.cal.fan]

Good for you, Bill.....I know if you play a portfoilo of spot plays, this isn't a bad idea!
Good luck to you.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Good for you, Bill.....I know if you play a portfoilo of spot plays, this isn't a bad idea!
Good luck to you.

Thanks!

For a spot player, heaven on earth is when two totally different spot plays shine their spotlights on the same horse, and if the odds are good enough, then that's a PRIME BET.

Those are the kinds of bets I seek to uncover and play.

Bill C

[John]

Bill c.

speaking of SPOT plays.....Got any for the TURF..I am getting killed on the turf.

John

[OTM Al]

This does work but you really only need 1 and 4 with a couple caveats. First, he's not just dropping today, he's never run a maiden claimer. You also need a couple horses in the field that have Beyered around 10 points higher than your dropper. The second part is the hard one, because you don't get that often enough. Its the way the odds get pumped up on the dropper. It also helps alot to have that early kick, but if he's withing a few lengths at first call, that's generally good enough. I scan the DRF for this setup every time I go to the races, but it doesn't come along too often. Been about 5 mos since I found one, but it turned $8 into $107 on the exacta

[Tom]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
$7.20 in 8 yrs.

helps explain the 'recreational handicapper' thread you started.




Made out better than Enron investors!:D