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JerryBoyle
03-01-2018, 12:09 PM
What's the experience like? I was watching some TAM races yesterday and the amount matched was ~5x the total win pool by the time the race closed. I'd like to download the free historical data, but unfortunately I'm not a NJ resident :(.

A couple questions for anyone who may be using the exchange:

Anyone ever set up a program to trade against it/use the data in a model for the pari mutuel pools?

Have you noticed that you'e able to get down more/less money on a runner as compared to the win pool?

Do you trade in and out of positions, or lock in a bet and wait for the race to finish?

AltonKelsey
03-01-2018, 01:33 PM
5X the total on track win pool?

cutchemist42
03-01-2018, 02:02 PM
Used to love it years ago until Canadians were blocked from it.

You could get great prices and plus you could lock in decimal odds that you liked.

I know some use Asianconnect to access Betfair through 9wickets. If I wasnt scared about the process, I would be on there in a heatbeat.

JerryBoyle
03-01-2018, 06:41 PM
5X the total on track win pool?

As in, if the total parimutuel win pool is 10k, the total matched amount on betfair was 50k

AltonKelsey
03-01-2018, 08:30 PM
As in, if the total parimutuel win pool is 10k, the total matched amount on betfair was 50k

I knew what you meant, sounded high. Actually that's quite impressive. Betfair UK now blocks usa ip's, and you have to jump through hoops just to use the site.

Looking at the usa site, when you press refresh, the total $ matched jumps around wildly and randomly. Whats that about?

SG4
03-01-2018, 11:27 PM
As in, if the total parimutuel win pool is 10k, the total matched amount on betfair was 50k

I have not seen anything remotely resembling this ever in the pools I've seen in North America, the track total usually dwarfs the exchange total. Granted, I use the exchange infrequently, but the main reason for the infrequent use is the small amount of liquidity in the exchange relative to the amount I'm looking to bet.

I will track Tampa Bay's races tomorrow for a comparison & will come back here with results.

If you're a small to mid-range player though, the exchange offers some really solid opportunities, particularly if you prefer longer priced horses.

SG4
03-01-2018, 11:32 PM
I'd like to download the free historical data, but unfortunately I'm not a NJ resident :(.


Just in case anyone has a misconception, you don't have to be a NJ resident to use the Betfair exchange, you just need to be located in NJ at time of use. On the flip side if I'm an NJ resident & I happen to be out of the state at a given time, I'm out of luck to use the exchange as well.

So feel free to pop in to the garden state & download away (where is this free historical data anyway?)

davew
03-02-2018, 12:37 AM
As in, if the total parimutuel win pool is 10k, the total matched amount on betfair was 50k

so 25K to win and 25K to lose? do they have in-running? what kind of feed would you have or is someone at the track on the phone with you? is the pool merged with Europe and Australia, or just New Jersey?

JerryBoyle
03-02-2018, 01:03 AM
so 25K to win and 25K to lose? do they have in-running? what kind of feed would you have or is someone at the track on the phone with you? is the pool merged with Europe and Australia, or just New Jersey?

I'm not sure how they calculate matched amount. It was also fluctuating heavily in the minutes up to the races.

I contacted customer support and they said the $ is commingled with the euro exchange.

Fox
03-02-2018, 01:05 AM
so 25K to win and 25K to lose? do they have in-running? what kind of feed would you have or is someone at the track on the phone with you? is the pool merged with Europe and Australia, or just New Jersey?

Thatís the thing, they count the stake twice. If I back a horse for $10 and match, they count $20 towards the volume. So itís best to cut in half their posted number when comparing to the win pool.

JerryBoyle
03-02-2018, 01:09 AM
Just in case anyone has a misconception, you don't have to be a NJ resident to use the Betfair exchange, you just need to be located in NJ at time of use. On the flip side if I'm an NJ resident & I happen to be out of the state at a given time, I'm out of luck to use the exchange as well.

So feel free to pop in to the garden state & download away (where is this free historical data anyway?)

I attempted to register using my address but was redirected to my state's TVG site. If what you're saying is true, could I use either a VPN or AWS instance located in NJ to register and bet?

The historical data is here: https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home. Unfortunately, volume isn't included in the free tier.

upthecreek
03-02-2018, 06:54 AM
Only residents of New Jersey will be able to sign up to use the exchange, and all U.S. bets on the exchange will be required to be placed while the resident is physically in New Jersey. Betfair intends to use geolocation technology to ensure that the bets are being placed within the borders of the state

SG4
03-02-2018, 12:10 PM
I attempted to register using my address but was redirected to my state's TVG site. If what you're saying is true, could I use either a VPN or AWS instance located in NJ to register and bet?

The historical data is here: https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home. Unfortunately, volume isn't included in the free tier.

My apologies, I had been under the wrong impression for awhile now and just confirmed with a Betfair rep that you do indeed need to be a NJ resident along with being in the state at time of wagering.

Also confirmed with them that the pools showing for instance $100 matched means $100 was put up on each side, so this is not a doubling of the actual handle.

AltonKelsey
03-02-2018, 12:34 PM
Would be kind of disingenuous to double count, so not surprised they DON'T do it.

And $ merged with Betfair Europe, certainly a good thing.

JerryBoyle
03-02-2018, 01:24 PM
Watching TAM R2 now, at start of race total win pool was $51k while last flash of total matched that I saw was $59k. Matched amount continues jumping presumably as in-play wagering is going on. Finished at $69k matched.

Why does the matched amount jump around so drastically? I would thing if two people enter into a position and then close it out by taking the other side, that still counts towards the matched total?

SG4
03-02-2018, 03:00 PM
I have not seen anything remotely resembling this ever in the pools I've seen in North America, the track total usually dwarfs the exchange total. Granted, I use the exchange infrequently, but the main reason for the infrequent use is the small amount of liquidity in the exchange relative to the amount I'm looking to bet.

I will track Tampa Bay's races tomorrow for a comparison & will come back here with results.

If you're a small to mid-range player though, the exchange offers some really solid opportunities, particularly if you prefer longer priced horses.


This thread has not been my finest moment...checked out the first 5 races from Tampa today, each race the track win pool total was greater than the exchange, by about 20-25% when they left the gate, and once factoring in-play wagering the total of exchange vs. track was pretty similar. Definitely not the dwarfing amount I thought earlier.

Not sure why the matched figures jump around so much, agree that I don't think you could cancel a wager, although there is a cash out feature which maybe reduces total, even though it is technically matching more to other players.

davew
03-02-2018, 03:14 PM
This thread has not been my finest moment...checked out the first 5 races from Tampa today, each race the track win pool total was greater than the exchange, by about 20-25% when they left the gate, and once factoring in-play wagering the total of exchange vs. track was pretty similar. Definitely not the dwarfing amount I thought earlier.

Not sure why the matched figures jump around so much, agree that I don't think you could cancel a wager, although there is a cash out feature which maybe reduces total, even though it is technically matching more to other players.

They jump around because some people play the moves. Say early in betting you can back at 3.00 for $10 and during betting can lay at 2.00 for $10 they have made $10. A great exercise for people who like to dutch and/or know there will be late money on a favorite that has not showed up on the exchange yet.

Fox
03-02-2018, 04:00 PM
Also confirmed with them that the pools showing for instance $100 matched means $100 was put up on each side, so this is not a doubling of the actual handle.

I don't know what to say other than that you were misinformed.

Fox
03-02-2018, 04:07 PM
They jump around because some people play the moves. Say early in betting you can back at 3.00 for $10 and during betting can lay at 2.00 for $10 they have made $10. A great exercise for people who like to dutch and/or know there will be late money on a favorite that has not showed up on the exchange yet.

Actually, the jumping appears to be nothing more than a glitch. If you check the international exchange, the number always appears stable and moves only up. The USA display seems to bounce up and down for some reason, most likely a programming error. When people trade out, it does not reduce the volume, it actually increases it. For instance, if I back a horse for $20 and you lay the full amount, $40 is added to the volume. 1 minute later, if we do it in reverse and I lay and you back the same horse you just layed for another $20, another $40 is added to volume. So you have $80 of volume with no outstanding positions. That is another reason the exchange liquidity can look higher than it really is.

Fox
03-02-2018, 04:19 PM
I don't know what to say other than that you were misinformed.

https://betting.betfair.com/betfair-announcements/betting-apps/betfair-trading-importance-of-volume-matched-261017-710.html

The pertinent excerpt is:

"If I place a £10 back bet at odds of 2.00, it will enter the market unmatched. If the price is right, another market participant may choose to match by bet with a £10 lay bet.

Now, both of our bets have been matched. This now means the total volume matched in the market is £20."

davew
03-02-2018, 06:07 PM
Actually, the jumping appears to be nothing more than a glitch. If you check the international exchange, the number always appears stable and moves only up. The USA display seems to bounce up and down for some reason, most likely a programming error. When people trade out, it does not reduce the volume, it actually increases it. For instance, if I back a horse for $20 and you lay the full amount, $40 is added to the volume. 1 minute later, if we do it in reverse and I lay and you back the same horse you just layed for another $20, another $40 is added to volume. So you have $80 of volume with no outstanding positions. That is another reason the exchange liquidity can look higher than it really is.

you are correct for matched - do they use $USD in Europe or Euro's? How do they handle exchange rate?

Fox
03-02-2018, 06:29 PM
you are correct for matched - do they use $USD in Europe or Euro's? How do they handle exchange rate?

These are the available currencies:
UK Sterling
Euro
US Dollar
Hong Kong Dollar
Australian Dollar
Danish Krone
Swedish Krona

I don't know exactly how the currency exchange works since you don't actually know your counter party. I'm sure it's on the up and up though.

Regarding the counting the stakes twice towards volume, I don't think it's the wrong way or the right way, it's just the way it's done. I just mentioned it because it's important to keep in mind when comparing to the parimutuel pool.

I'm not sure if they still do, but I think Betfair's competitor, Betdaq, used to add backer's stake plus layer's liability to volume. So if I back 10 to profit 20 on a horse and it is matched, Betfair counts 20 (10 + 10) towards volume, but Betdaq counts 30 (10 + 20). I think the Betfair is better.

Pensacola Pete
03-02-2018, 06:57 PM
They jump around because some people play the moves. Say early in betting you can back at 3.00 for $10 and during betting can lay at 2.00 for $10 they have made $10. A great exercise for people who like to dutch and/or know there will be late money on a favorite that has not showed up on the exchange yet.

That's common with Betfair; it's known as 'arbitrage,' a lot of people are into it, and there are bots that scour the Betfair markets 24/7 looking for such advantages. It's especially popular with the Brits in the U.K. races.

AltonKelsey
03-03-2018, 12:54 AM
The matched total moves $1000 or more every time you click, so I doubt if it's anything more than programming weirdness.

SG4
03-03-2018, 10:25 PM
I don't know what to say other than that you were misinformed.

That would be unfortunate - does seem disingenuous to post a liquidity amount that is really double the amount of wagers essentially. I see a lot of race liquidity totals as odd numbers so figured that would mean they're not double counting, but I guess this is explained by some wagers that are filled for less than whole dollars?

Pretty impressive feat for my statements in this thread to be 0 for 3 in validity, guess I'm trying to keep pace with my win selections as well. :blush:

biggestal99
03-04-2018, 07:44 AM
That's common with Betfair; it's known as 'arbitrage,' a lot of people are into it, and there are bots that scour the Betfair markets 24/7 looking for such advantages. It's especially popular with the Brits in the U.K. races.

The bots are great. Hell I have had bets matched at $0.01 by the bots.
Bots are stupid and can be beaten with common sense. The one thing annoying as hell is bots mimicking my bets. I lay a horse at 5.00 for 10. And suddenly itís 20 due to bots. I am a 2 year player on the exchange and won money both in 2016 and 2017, mostly laying horses. Off to a profitable start in 2018.

I am a very active trader. In the last two days I was matched on 160 bets in 29 markets for an average of 5 bets per market.

I grind out a profit doing this. Itís not easy. But then again if it was easy everyone would do it.

I really like the uk markets, although there are many sharps and bots there.

Tread lightly in the uk there if you are just starting out. Better to stick with the American markets for beginners.

Also I like the in-running betting on the long races, short races hard to get a bet matched but the longer races I have had more success and itís a blast when a horse you like goes up in price in the market because the horse is a late runner.

Allan

biggestal99
03-04-2018, 07:58 AM
I have not seen anything remotely resembling this ever in the pools I've seen in North America, the track total usually dwarfs the exchange total. Granted, I use the exchange infrequently, but the main reason for the infrequent use is the small amount of liquidity in the exchange relative to the amount I'm looking to bet.

I will track Tampa Bay's races tomorrow for a comparison & will come back here with results.

If you're a small to mid-range player though, the exchange offers some really solid opportunities, particularly if you prefer longer priced horses.

If you bet the uk races, there is plenty of liquidity And you can get your bet matched whatever the amount. You see $1,000,000 plus volumes on an everyday basis on uk races. Of course with greater volumes you get more sharps and bots competing for a profit.

The exchange is not about picking winners but making a profit. I tell myself that everyday I am on the exchange.

Allan

Fox
03-04-2018, 12:12 PM
That would be unfortunate - does seem disingenuous to post a liquidity amount that is really double the amount of wagers essentially. I see a lot of race liquidity totals as odd numbers so figured that would mean they're not double counting, but I guess this is explained by some wagers that are filled for less than whole dollars?

Pretty impressive feat for my statements in this thread to be 0 for 3 in validity, guess I'm trying to keep pace with my win selections as well. :blush:

Actually, come to think of it, the way they present it is not all that bad. If anything, it understates the volume in some ways.

Take the example of a 2 horse race with Bettors A and Bettor B. Say it was parimutuel and Bettor A bets $400 on horse #1 and Bettor B bets $100 on horse #2. Total win pool is $500.

Now instead of betting through the parimutuel system, Bettor B puts out a bet of $100 at 4/1 odds and it is accepted by Bettor A who now has a liability of $400.

Certainly the same amount of risk applies in both situations. The win pool at the track would be shown as $500. Some people would say Betfair should only display volume of $100. In this case, they would actually have displayed $200, but one could certainly argue maybe they should show it as $500.

Bottom line is that it's tough to make comparisons on the actual volume on the exchange versus the track win pool by just looking at the total volume on the exchange as it can be deceptive for the reason noted above but also because it does not take into account people trading both sides of the same horse.

JerryBoyle
03-06-2018, 05:55 PM
Dang, I'd love to give this a shot. Gosh darn government telling me where I can't spend my $$ :rant::rant::rant::rant:

JerryBoyle
03-26-2018, 04:21 PM
Anyone who's in NJ and has access to Betfair have any interest in setting up a small group to studying the tick data? I don't have access unfortunately, but would love to check it out and contribute.

MJC922
03-29-2018, 05:59 AM
Dang, I'd love to give this a shot. Gosh darn government telling me where I can't spend my $$ :rant::rant::rant::rant:

I'm right with you there. I have what I consider to be a decent computer generated line. I would think it would have the potential to do at least ok going against the exchanges. Here's to waiting around for NY to join the party.