kingfin66
08-25-2004, 01:51 AM
Wednesday's payday for me, so I'm going to put $4 of my hard earned money (small play for blind internet bets) on each of the following:
Race 6 - There should be plenty of speed to set up the closers, 2 and 5. There should be a nice price on both of them, so both of them I shall play. From a TMM point of view, the race is Heavy Pressure. Both 2 and 5 are S runners, and the pace position pointer confirms this. Using turf lines for the dirt race gives the 5 a 3-gap PPF, but the rating from the SA 6.5 turf course. I am dubious of both using turf ratings for dirt races and using the SA 6.5 ratings as they seem too high on average.
Going back to turf lines, the 2 & 5 (both S horses) have the biggest PPFs. Both horses are also VTRs. This race is the scenario that TMM users wait for; value, price, correct running style for race, and big numbers. Even if you don't play them to win, at least consider using in the exotics.
Race 8 - Not quite playing the bombs here. I like the 3, but think it will most likely be bet down from its morning line of 9/2.
From a TMM point of view we have a neutral pace maiden race. The 3 has the top PBS which is our preferred rating. 3 and the favorite are very close ratings wise and both are VTRs. I am siding with the higher rated and priced horse.
To recap:
Dmr - 6 // Dutch 2, 5
Dmr - 8 // 3
Race 6 - There should be plenty of speed to set up the closers, 2 and 5. There should be a nice price on both of them, so both of them I shall play. From a TMM point of view, the race is Heavy Pressure. Both 2 and 5 are S runners, and the pace position pointer confirms this. Using turf lines for the dirt race gives the 5 a 3-gap PPF, but the rating from the SA 6.5 turf course. I am dubious of both using turf ratings for dirt races and using the SA 6.5 ratings as they seem too high on average.
Going back to turf lines, the 2 & 5 (both S horses) have the biggest PPFs. Both horses are also VTRs. This race is the scenario that TMM users wait for; value, price, correct running style for race, and big numbers. Even if you don't play them to win, at least consider using in the exotics.
Race 8 - Not quite playing the bombs here. I like the 3, but think it will most likely be bet down from its morning line of 9/2.
From a TMM point of view we have a neutral pace maiden race. The 3 has the top PBS which is our preferred rating. 3 and the favorite are very close ratings wise and both are VTRs. I am siding with the higher rated and priced horse.
To recap:
Dmr - 6 // Dutch 2, 5
Dmr - 8 // 3