PDA

View Full Version : Hal's Hope


Tom
02-24-2018, 01:10 PM
GP today - not that I plan on betting it, but it is an interesting race to handicap.

:1: Irish War Cry - cuts back after a gruelling TP campaign. One turn mile might be just what he needs, but is he ready off a layoff?

:2: Economic Model - 3 of his 4 wins at least have been at one turn routes but again, a layoff. Jose jumps ship to ride the :1: and Irad gets this one for Chad. Jose think he has a better shot leaving?

:3: Conquest Big E - proved he can win from either end of the field and is sharp right now. can he keep moving ahead?

:4: Tower of Texas - why first time dirt after two stakes wins and a showing on turf? Not for me = pass.

:5: Quitjote - has had at least one long shot first time routing, but I won't have anything on his next one = pass.

:6: Malagacy - 2nd off the layoff, good runs at OP last year, lightly raced, Todd/Castellano, probably needs at least one more going long before he makes a move - still needs to pass last year's top

:7: Guiseppe the Great - I don't think this one is going anywhere up from his current level - no big moves in this one = pass

:8: Send it In - His good presser and SP ratings suggest to me he will do better at a flat mile than longer - big shot n here today.

I had mentioned before I uses CJ's adjusted times in Sartin formulae with good results, a I was asked for an example, so I did this race since it was a free one today.

FW = Factor W
EP = 2nd call pace
PR = PResser rating - average tof Turn time and 2nnd call
F3 = third fraction
SP = sustained pace, average of 2nd call and third fraction
HE = hidden energy, average of turn time and third fraction
E% = ratio of EP and F3

Robert Fischer
02-24-2018, 01:33 PM
Gave :6: Malagacy a look, but that race this year was awful.

:8: What was the health issue with this one? Seems dangerous


:2: Irad has really been on top of the world lately. Horse figures to be fit.

:1: Irish War Cry will probably be a bad value, but certainly has potential to win.


:3: Conquest Big E seems like a bit of a value to contend.

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 01:35 PM
Can't look much past the :8: in here...I think we might be having a consensus on this one already.

Would be surprising if he's anywhere near his 7/2 morning line.

Lemon Drop Husker
02-24-2018, 01:39 PM
I'm an IWC fan, but am having a really hard time believing he'll go off as the favorite in his 1st time taking on elders after a 5 month layoff (which was likely needed).

IWC is a bit of an enigma, in that he essentially needs everything to go his way in order to run big races. Hard to argue with a number of his results, but he has also laid down some straight up duds like the FOY, KD, and Pa Derby. While I do enjoy watching him run when he runs well, he is an impossible wager in here at anywhere close to the 5/2 ML for me.

:2: Economic Model and :8: Send It In make the most sense to me, but :3: Conquest Big E is a straight up miler, coming in off of what is arguably the best race of his career after a bad start. Gets top jock in Saez on board and if I can get anywhere near 8/1 I'll be happy.

Lemon Drop Husker
02-24-2018, 01:44 PM
Can't look much past the :8: in here...I think we might be having a consensus on this one already.

Would be surprising if he's anywhere near his 7/2 morning line.

Is it even possible that the :8: won't be the post time favorite?

Tom
02-24-2018, 01:47 PM
I'm leaning to Conquest Big E because of the layoffs on the other main contenders. I like horse who run fast and often.
His GP mile race shows he can handle the track today. Track profile favors horses close up early and he will be right there.

If I get anything 5-1 or more I'm on him like monkeys on bananas.

RunForTheRoses
02-24-2018, 02:15 PM
Pretty crappy race, too many ?s. I wouldn't play the 8 at less than 9/2 off that long layoff even though I know TP is good at that move. :2::3::6:if I play horizontal wagers, maybe throw in 1 and Giuseppe. But I don't think I will play.

GMB@BP
02-24-2018, 02:27 PM
I was on Malagacy :6: but its tepid, Irish War Cry :1: didnt draw well for a comeback race but I do think he is the best horse in here.

Immortal6
02-24-2018, 02:34 PM
I will be rooting for IWC but will have a hard time betting him at anything less than 5-1. I like Malagacy getting a tune up race last out and think a one turn mile will treat him well. It's almost impossible to throw the :8: out, but drawing the outside post, running his first time at GP, and tackling a one turn mile I'll steer clear. Exacta box :1::6: just so I have some rooting interest in the race.

FlintAtTheFetlock
02-24-2018, 03:29 PM
Hunching the :1: and :8: need one after long layoffs, play will be the :6:. 2-3 at GP, 3-5 lifetime, second off, top connections, huge upside IMO. Can't find a clever way to play other than straight WIN. Open to ideas.

Good Luck

Ocala Mike
02-24-2018, 03:45 PM
Love the :8: in here, even though I'm a big Motion fan.

Denny
02-24-2018, 04:30 PM
:8:
:3:

Too many of us???

Tom
02-24-2018, 06:53 PM
What a bunch of dipshits at GP!
SAME freaking owner as SA and they overlap the Gr3 Stake with a MC 3yoF race!

You can't fix stupid.


Terrible race - bad spill. Didn't get my odds so I did not have to bet that S-Hole of a track.

Winner looked very good on the CJ/Sartin velocity.

Secondbest
02-24-2018, 06:54 PM
GP today - not that I plan on betting it, but it is an interesting race to handicap.

:1: Irish War Cry - cuts back after a gruelling TP campaign. One turn mile might be just what he needs, but is he ready off a layoff?

:2: Economic Model - 3 of his 4 wins at least have been at one turn routes but again, a layoff. Jose jumps ship to ride the :1: and Irad gets this one for Chad. Jose think he has a better shot leaving?

:3: Conquest Big E - proved he can win from either end of the field and is sharp right now. can he keep moving ahead?

:4: Tower of Texas - why first time dirt after two stakes wins and a showing on turf? Not for me = pass.

:5: Quitjote - has had at least one long shot first time routing, but I won't have anything on his next one = pass.

:6: Malagacy - 2nd off the layoff, good runs at OP last year, lightly raced, Todd/Castellano, probably needs at least one more going long before he makes a move - still needs to pass last year's top

:7: Guiseppe the Great - I don't think this one is going anywhere up from his current level - no big moves in this one = pass

:8: Send it In - His good presser and SP ratings suggest to me he will do better at a flat mile than longer - big shot n here today.

I had mentioned before I uses CJ's adjusted times in Sartin formulae with good results, a I was asked for an example, so I did this race since it was a free one today.

FW = Factor W
EP = 2nd call pace
PR = PResser rating - average tof Turn time and 2nnd call
F3 = third fraction
SP = sustained pace, average of 2nd call and third fraction
HE = hidden energy, average of turn time and third fraction
E% = ratio of EP and F3
Not Bad Top in F3,SP, HE and the lowest %E. In one paceline and a bunch of seconds and thirds in another.

Acacia also had the winner and the exacta.

thaskalos
02-24-2018, 06:58 PM
How do we explain the fact that the :8: Send It In went off at such high odds in such a small field?

Tom
02-24-2018, 06:59 PM
How do we explain the fact that the :8: Send It In went off at such high odds in such a small field?

And then fell/broke down?

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 07:00 PM
Everyone knew but us?

I didn't bet the race...

GMB@BP
02-24-2018, 07:02 PM
Whenever I bet Pletcher...I lose..its amazing. I have no idea what to do with that guy at GP.

Tom
02-24-2018, 07:14 PM
Pletcher is hitting with horses looking pathetic and dropping at NYRA - must be a garage sale he is having. :rolleyes:

Tom
02-24-2018, 07:15 PM
Everyone knew but us?

I didn't bet the race...

The bots knew!
:rolleyes:

Tom
02-24-2018, 07:19 PM
Not Bad Top in F3,SP, HE and the lowest %E. In one paceline and a bunch of seconds and thirds in another.

Acacia also had the winner and the exacta.

I like to use 2-3 lines to get a read on how the horse runs - don't want to pick a line that is aberrant.

That's why I still think the best program ever was Sartin' KGen.

Lemon Drop Husker
02-24-2018, 07:28 PM
The bots knew!
:rolleyes:

Ha. :lol:

That wagering board made absolutely no sense. Glad the :3: got hammered down to an absurd 7/2 so I could stay away.

Probably time to let Malagacy be the sprinter he has always been.

Tough race to take much away from.

Denny
02-24-2018, 07:29 PM
Anybody know how bad the breakdown?

Damn track doesn't say a word after!

Disgraceful operation GP is.

They talk about the Rainbow 6! $!#=/+?

(Ron and Jason suck, Gulfstream sucks the most)

cutchemist42
02-24-2018, 07:41 PM
When did Gulfstream start cutting out the falls on the replays? Watched the race on replay and saw them skip forward.

Anyhow based on Twitter, it seems lots are wondering why the horse was allowed to run? Lots saying he was visibly acting up before the race.

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 07:43 PM
What about all the ones who act up and run just fine?

Denny
02-24-2018, 07:49 PM
He didn't look good. Had loose shit/diarrhea between hind legs.
Also sweating quite a bit.

I cancelled my planned bets.

Did you hear the Pletcher interview before the race?
He said they were just looking for a place "to get started"!

A grade3 stakes with what intention? Screw the public?

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 07:57 PM
How did the spill happen? Horse just broke down?

I didn't see it.

cutchemist42
02-24-2018, 08:02 PM
What about all the ones who act up and run just fine?

Just saying what Twitter said, based on how he came out of the last race as well. And yes, some were clearly timedated before the race went off. Saw someone say the horse looked really sweaty.

Lemon Drop Husker
02-24-2018, 08:13 PM
Not surprising, but Send It In was euthanized.

thaskalos
02-24-2018, 08:38 PM
Most accomplished horse in the race...best speed figures...top trainer/jockey connections...steady works...great trainer layoff percentage...worthwhile purse...and yet the horse goes off at DOUBLE the odds of any other other race of its past performances. And it looked like a loser even before the fatal breakdown.

A game of "inside information", to be sure.

Secondbest
02-24-2018, 09:03 PM
I like to use 2-3 lines to get a read on how the horse runs - don't want to pick a line that is aberrant.

That's why I still think the best program ever was Sartin' KGen.

Sartin used to recommend that, If I remember correctly. Using more than one paceline when one looks too good.
Very smart move by you using CJ's adjusted with Sartin. Looks like it works pretty good.

sammy the sage
02-24-2018, 09:26 PM
Most accomplished horse in the race...best speed figures...top trainer/jockey connections...steady works...great trainer layoff percentage...worthwhile purse...and yet the horse goes off at DOUBLE the odds of any other other race of its past performances. And it looked like a loser even before the fatal breakdown.

A game of "inside information", to be sure.

that IS the problem...ain't it...one THE reasons I've quit wagering unless the race is 500k or more...and even then...sometimes intentions are dubious if there's another one coming up....:eek::puke::mad::pout:

GMB@BP
02-25-2018, 01:11 AM
that IS the problem...ain't it...one THE reasons I've quit wagering unless the race is 500k or more...and even then...sometimes intentions are dubious if there's another one coming up....:eek::puke::mad::pout:

Timeform had the race pretty even figure wise among 4-5 horses. The winner never did much winning while burning a lot of money. He tripped out and won, but I hardly think this race was anything other than straight forward.

cj
02-25-2018, 01:26 AM
Timeform had the race pretty even figure wise among 4-5 horses. The winner never did much winning while burning a lot of money. He tripped out and won, but I hardly think this race was anything other than straight forward.

I always find it disheartening when you get a good group of horses and they don't actually race the whole distance. Those were joke fractions for G3 older males, but that is often racing these days I guess.

GMB@BP
02-25-2018, 10:50 AM
I always find it disheartening when you get a good group of horses and they don't actually race the whole distance. Those were joke fractions for G3 older males, but that is often racing these days I guess.

In my opinion is that this group of riders from NY ride everything like turf races, so getting legit fractions is always going to be a crap shoot.

I only looked at the race(s) at GP because it was in a contest. I refuse to bet there with all the timing and malfeasances that are going on.

GMB@BP
02-25-2018, 12:48 PM
I always find it disheartening when you get a good group of horses and they don't actually race the whole distance. Those were joke fractions for G3 older males, but that is often racing these days I guess.

What I find more troublesome for me is a race like the 11th yesterday, won by Uncle B. How did that horse go off at even money, and then ran like it. He was a marginal contender but was just bet like a sure thing.

SG4
02-25-2018, 11:02 PM
Most accomplished horse in the race...best speed figures...top trainer/jockey connections...steady works...great trainer layoff percentage...worthwhile purse...and yet the horse goes off at DOUBLE the odds of any other other race of its past performances. And it looked like a loser even before the fatal breakdown.

A game of "inside information", to be sure.

Sorry for the redboarding here, but I'm very surprised at what the thoughts were on Send it In coming into this race. I thought he'd actually end up near 8-1 and in my bets I didn't give him a thought, until I saw how "low" his odds were to me & figured I'd throw him in some exotics because it looked like he was taking a lot of potentially smart money. Thought this was a clear prep, he's done his best work over 2 turns, and coming off a long layoff & such a big performance it'd be tough to approach such an outlier like that.

It's a very unfair comment to suggest "they" knew there was something wrong with this horse, especially wrong enough to put the horse & jockeys in danger like that. It's awful what the end result was, and always a red-flag raiser when after extended injury rehab, but sometimes s*** just happens.

For the record, I played Malagacy over Tower of Texas in this race so I didn't have any genius opinions on the front end either.

SG4
02-25-2018, 11:09 PM
What I find more troublesome for me is a race like the 11th yesterday, won by Uncle B. How did that horse go off at even money, and then ran like it. He was a marginal contender but was just bet like a sure thing.

After scratches the 8-1 ML was obviously a pipe dream, but figured 3-1 was a lot more likely a price, I could not believe this horse was bet like an even money shot in every single pool back & forth. My first thought when the race was over was if horses like this go off & win at even money, it will be impossible to ever make money in this game. Had some obvious angles, but that was some betting like the race had been run already.

Of course we all notice when the money like this is right, on the flip side I saw some other favorites who I thought were insanely overbet at GP in the last few days who didn't run a step. I see more inexplicable odds at GP than any other major meet in the country, don't know why they have such a hold on craziness in many ways but seems that they do.

Tom
02-26-2018, 10:48 AM
In my opinion is that this group of riders from NY ride everything like turf races, so getting legit fractions is always going to be a crap shoot.

I only looked at the race(s) at GP because it was in a contest. I refuse to bet there with all the timing and malfeasances that are going on.

This!
I seldom bet NYRA. but with the chokers in Florida, I have been looking at this this winter. I'm thinking at some point they will put together a decent card on a fast track with :6: horse or two. :rolleyes:

classhandicapper
02-28-2018, 01:23 PM
I always find it disheartening when you get a good group of horses and they don't actually race the whole distance. Those were joke fractions for G3 older males, but that is often racing these days I guess.

The race was a bit of a train wreck.

Malagacy got off badly and then was bad after making the lead.

Conquest Big E kind of hopped at the start, didn't get into right away, then got checked along the inside trying.

Send it In broke down just as the race was picking up.

Irish War Cry was ridden passively most likely to avoid getting involved with Malagacy.

When Economic Model has the lead turning for home you sort of know the pace had to be slow. I'm glad I didn't get involved because of all the layoffs. I wouldn't have been on the winner if I was forced to make a play.

Robert Fischer
02-28-2018, 02:33 PM
Seemed Send It iN was a bit cold on the board from inside info(arguably the 4th underlay in the race after the fact)
Seemed like everyone had committed to including Conquest Big E off a good morning line value, and ended up going to far sending off at an underlay. Had a long shot chance.

Malagacy had attractive paper form, and was initially the horse I gravitated to, until I watched the comeback effort on video. Really bad effort, and only managed to be with the race flow. This was a bad underlay in the HH. Had no real chance.

Irish War Cry was an underlay because of the triple crown name recognition. At least he was actually a contender.

Economic Model was a contender and was the one who ended up being the most value/ forgotten on the board.


Race had 3 or 4 underlays!! But could have easily gone to Irish War Cry and been negligible value.
Not a race you want to focus your day on, but it turned out OK for a part of a mulit-race sequence.

onefast99
03-06-2018, 03:44 PM
The race was a bit of a train wreck.

Malagacy got off badly and then was bad after making the lead.

Conquest Big E kind of hopped at the start, didn't get into right away, then got checked along the inside trying.

Send it In broke down just as the race was picking up.

Irish War Cry was ridden passively most likely to avoid getting involved with Malagacy.

When Economic Model has the lead turning for home you sort of know the pace had to be slow. I'm glad I didn't get involved because of all the layoffs. I wouldn't have been on the winner if I was forced to make a play.It has been a pattern lately for Paul Pompas horses he has had two now that have taken a lot of time off or have had a lot of time in between races albeit two different trainers. I was at the track and send it in didn't look one bit on his toes either in the paddock or on the track. Connect was retired to stud after a soft tissue injury. No one ever wants to see a horse breakdown like this one did but I have to question the long layoff and the competitive field they brought him back to run against.