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PowerUpPaynter
02-21-2018, 09:58 AM
Anyone have any Derby stats on the Storm cat sire line? Has a horse from that line ever won the derby? I cant think of one... Seems a few decent horses are from his line this year.

Afleet
02-21-2018, 10:54 PM
Anyone have any Derby stats on the Storm cat sire line? Has a horse from that line ever won the derby? I cant think of one... Seems a few decent horses are from his line this year.

Haskins Derby dozen column in the Bloodhorse will point out these stats. I had all this saved on my previous computer, but don't have access to it now

DGroundhog
02-25-2018, 12:31 AM
0 for 49 prior to last year. Menifee came pretty close.

https://ddink55.wordpress.com/2016/05/09/storm-cat-male-line-kentucky-derby-continued-4/

f2tornado
02-28-2018, 10:12 PM
Coincidentally, Brisnet posted an article (http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/02/storm-cat-kentucky-derby-curse-betting-angle-trivia/) on the topic today... 0/51 is an eye-catching number not only in its volume (it represents 11.5% of all Kentucky Derby starters since Tabasco Cat finished 6th at 6.1-to-1 in the 1994 Derby)

HalvOnHorseracing
03-02-2018, 07:48 PM
Always Dreaming had Storm Cat in his pedigree three generations back. Doesn't that break the streak?

PowerUpPaynter
03-02-2018, 10:59 PM
Always Dreaming had Storm Cat in his pedigree three generations back. Doesn't that break the streak?

Think its straight top sire line

CincyHorseplayer
03-02-2018, 11:27 PM
The futility of most of the Northern Dancer line is pretty impressive.

PowerUpPaynter
03-04-2018, 07:11 PM
Anyone know the record of the Raise A Native sire line?

CincyHorseplayer
03-04-2018, 07:24 PM
Anyone know the record of the Raise A Native sire line?

I'm not near my Derby folder but it surpasses all other lines put together. I believe it's 58% in the last 25 years. I'll get back to you.

f2tornado
03-04-2018, 11:28 PM
Raise A Native have made up about 25% of Derby starters and have won more than 50% of Derby races one was entered. That means they’re winning at twice the expected rate. And, when you combine RAN with Stanley’s magic number of 37.6 or faster final 3/8th in a big 9F prep they win at four times the expected rate. Bold Ruler was the next best one in recent decades if my memory is correct. I wish Roman’s site was still up. It was a treasure trove for this kind of info.

CincyHorseplayer
03-04-2018, 11:44 PM
Raise A Native have made up about 25% of Derby starters and have won more than 50% of Derby races one was entered. That means they’re winning at twice the expected rate. And, when you combine RAN with Stanley’s magic number of 37.6 or faster final 3/8th in a big 9F prep they win at four times the expected rate. Bold Ruler was the next best one in recent decades if my memory is correct. I wish Roman’s site was still up. It was a treasure trove for this kind of info.

I did all this work but don't have it with me. I did the male-female of all Derby winners back to 1875 just to see when and where it abruptly changed. But you are right the Nasrullah/Bold Ruler/AP Indy line is making somewhat of a comeback. Of the 3 sons of Nearco, Nasrullah outshines both Royal Charger(mainly through More Than Ready and Arch) and Nearctic(sire of Northern Dancer).

This year.

Raise a Native/Mr Prospector

Firenze Fire, Good Magic, Avery Island, Mckinzie, Solomini, Mourinho, Lombo.


Nearctic/Northern Dancer

Bolt Doro, Free Drop Billy, Flameaway, Enticed, Audible, Promises Fulfilled.


Royal Charger

Catholic Boy, Instilled Regard.