Weekend Beyers

[cj]

I think most have heard about Ghostzapper's 128 this weekend.

Here are some others to ponder:

Evening Attire 114
Pleasantly Perfect 111

Something seems amiss there, probably overrated the Saratoga race. My guess is it fell apart late and the Beyer guys "boosted" the figure. Simulcast Weekly will tell the real story, same for the Iselin for Ghostzapper.

[Zaf]

Wow 128 !! What is the highest beyer ever recorded ? What would of Secretariat's beyer been in the Belomnt ?

ZAFONIC

[Dancer's Image]

I heard someone on the radio say that a horse named "Groovy" ran consecutive races with Beyers of 133 and 131 in 1991. I can't confirm that. When did Beyers speed firgures begin?

[Speed Figure]

The 1st and 4th races had very slow variants of 32 & 30. Race 3 had a 12, races 6 & 7 had a 25. Race 8 had a 17. Race 9 had a -3. The avg variant was 20.

Lion Heart ran a fianl time of 1:48 4/5 and got a 108 beyer. Ghostzapper ran 1:47 3/5, 6 lengths faster at 2 points per length. 6 * 2 = 12. 108 + 12 = 120.

The track variant for Lion Heart was 13. Ghostzapper's variant was 20, 7 points slower. 108 + 12 + 7 = 127. I guess this is how they came up with a 128?

This is the only way I can see him getting a figure that big. I just don't like big figures on off tracks. The top 2 beyers this year are on off tracks. This could seem CRAZY to some! Beyer figures got into the DRF in 1992.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Speed Figure
The 1st and 4th races had very slow variants of 32 & 30. Race 3 had a 12, races 6 & 7 had a 25. Race 8 had a 17. Race 9 had a -3. The avg variant was 20.

Lion Heart ran a fianl time of 1:48 4/5 and got a 108 beyer. Ghostzapper ran 1:47 3/5, 6 lengths faster at 2 points per length. 6 * 2 = 12. 108 + 12 = 120.

The track variant for Lion Heart was 13. Ghostzapper's variant was 20, 7 points slower. 108 + 12 + 7 = 127. I guess this is how they came up with a 128?

This is the only way I can see him getting a figure that big. I just don't like big figures on off tracks. The top 2 beyers this year are on off tracks. This could seem CRAZY to some! Beyer figures got into the DRF in 1992.

Very good points. I enjoy it when you guys who are so good at these figures post threads like this. Keep it up guys. I for one think you guys are a great asset to this board.

[Valuist]

Dancers Image-

Straight from Beyer on Speed:

"Groovy recorded the highest back to back figures we have ever assigned a horse when he ran 131 and 134 in his first two starts of 1987, the Roseben and True North Handicaps at Belmont Park.

[Tom]

Originally posted by zafonic
Wow 128 !! What is the highest beyer ever recorded ? What would of Secretariat's beyer been in the Belomnt ?

ZAFONIC

I think Beyer gave him a 135? Someting like that, But then he changed the scale of his numbers after his first book, so it was different on the new one. I think it was discussed here a while ago-maybe try a serach.

[Whirlaway]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski

Evening Attire 114
Pleasantly Perfect 111

Something seems amiss there, probably overrated the Saratoga race. My guess is it fell apart late and the Beyer guys "boosted" the figure. Simulcast Weekly will tell the real story, same for the Iselin for Ghostzapper. [/B]


Just saw these two races on the NYRA recap show. Evening Attire was full of run on the turn, had to wade through traffic to get clear, but was much the best. 114 is hardly an outrageous figure for a horse of his calibur. Funny Cide had the worst of the trip and was (again) gallant in defeat.

Pleasantly Perfect had a pleasantly perfect trip - on his own behind a speed duel early, ranged up three wide second turn had a bit left in the tank to turn back Perfect Drift's late run fairly easily. He was a little reluctant and awkward to change leads and overall didn't look as sharp as his two races this winter at Santa Anita and in Dubai. Very beatable in the Classic, though by whom I don't know.

[cj]

I think Evening Attire has run that fast once before in his career. He's a G2 horse at best at this age. He certainly hasn't run that fast in quite some time.

Of course PP is beatable in the Classic, but surely not by Evening Attire.

[cj]

I looked over the card in pretty good detail. The track became sloppy for the 6th race, and remained that way right through the rest of the card.

The 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th were all routes over a sloppy track, so 4 races back to back is a pretty reliable way to get a variant.

The 6th and 7th both I projected the winner to get an 80. Both winners ran raw figures of 79. In the 8th, I projected a 90, while the winner ran a raw Beyer of 91. So, for the 6th, 7th, and 8th, I have variants of 1 slow, 1 slow, and 1 fast. That is very consistent. Now, for the Iselin, I projected a winning Beyer of 115. The raw Beyer came back at 130, for a 15 fast variant. Obviously, this is out of line with the other races, so either the track changed for the better, or Ghostzapper ran out of his mind.

Given this info, I looked at the 10th, a sprint, and see the winner earned a raw Beyer 15 points higher than my projection. The standard difference at Monmouth between sprints and routes is sprints are 12 faster than routes. I have solid data over 4 years to back this up. So, on the route scale, that 15 fast would be the equivalent of a 3 fast in a route, confirming to me the track didn't change much and the 9th should not be broken off and rated separately. So, given variants of 1 slow, 1 slow, 1 fast, and 15 fast, I would make the variant a 0 for races 6 through 9 and Ghostzapper would earn a 130.

I think the Beyer guys are on pretty solid ground with this number. This doesn't mean I think he will run a 130 anytime soon, but on that track on that day, I think the figure is legitamite.

[Valuist]

Who was the best horse in the Pac Classic? I agree PP had a perfect trip and Total Impact definitely did not. Getting beaten 1.75 lengths w/his trip, I thought he was the best horse.

[Zaf]

Quite AN impressive race even in the muck.

ZAFONIC

[Zaf]

How do people feel about the jockey switch on Funny Cide ?

ZAFONIC

[ceejay]

Originally posted by zafonic
Wow 128 !! What is the highest beyer ever recorded ? What would of Secretariat's beyer been in the Belomnt ?

ZAFONIC

139 estimated BSF. Page 4 of http://www.drf.com/row/fan_ed/winning-techniques-2004.pdf .

[Zaf]

Originally posted by ceejay
139 estimated BSF. Page 4 of http://www.drf.com/row/fan_ed/winning-techniques-2004.pdf .

Thanks Ceejay,

Pretty cool.

Now thats the best possible answer to my question !!!

ZAFONIC

[cj]

Originally posted by Valuist
Who was the best horse in the Pac Classic? I agree PP had a perfect trip and Total Impact definitely did not. Getting beaten 1.75 lengths w/his trip, I thought he was the best horse.

This is one of those cases where if they cut back in distance, I would say Total Impact could win. But if they race at 1 1/4 miles, I would think PP is the best horse every time, because he is suited for this distance, whereas TI is not.

[Dancer's Image]

Zafonic,
Without even knowing whom, I think the jockey switch on Funny Cide from Santos, is favorable.

ps. now please don't tell me they switched to the bug girl!!!LOL

[kenwoodallpromos]

Muddy rail- sloppy 3 post. When the inside horse produces a roostertail and the horse outside of that kicks up very little mud, that's it.
No matter the track speed, variant, or bias, a 128 horse had to be otherwise running very fast that day; but does not make it a mudder.

[ceejay]

The 128 was the best BSF since 1992, according to Dick Jeradi @ DRF.com.

Top 10 Beyer Speed Figures since 1992

HORSE DATE TRACK BEYER
Ghostzapper Aug. 21, 2004 Monmouth 128

Will's Way Aug. 2, 1997 Saratoga 126

Formal Gold Aug. 2, 1997 Saratoga 126

Gentlemen May 10, 1997 Pimlico 126

Skip Away May 10, 1997 Pimlico 125

Bertrando Sept. 18, 1993 Belmont 125

Formal Gold Sept. 20, 1997 Belmont 125

Formal Gold Aug. 23, 1997 Monmouth 124

Artax Nov. 6, 1999 Gulfstream 124

Midway Road April 22, 2004 Keeneland 123

[Valuist]

1997 was clearly a strong year. I guess Ghotzapper will run next at Bel in Sept, probably the Woodward. Let's see him do a big number routing on a fast track.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Anything in common with those horses?

[vito1270]

The answer to that question,"can you make a living at the track"
The answer is "YES". Go to your local race track and fill out an application as a hot dog vendor. If you get the job, don't under any circumstance bet on the horses. I've been betting on them since 1947 and believe me, since then i've made a million and lost a million and loved every minute of it.So far, i'm even. HA HA
And as Sammy Renick used to say, "AND GOOD RACING TO YOU"

__________________________________________________ __
Vito 1270

[Valuist]

Even if the 128 is wrong, it would not be unreasonable for him to have run back to 120. And even at 120, he would have to have a fairly significant bounce to lose in the Woodward today.