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jocko699
02-18-2018, 04:11 PM
I guess Baffert's firster could be worth the 500k. Scat Daddy out of a Ghostzapper mare goes 121 and 4 first out and looked like he wanted more distance.

GMB@BP
02-18-2018, 04:55 PM
Yea...Looks like DVD has taken over as Bafferts main rider.

cj
02-18-2018, 05:00 PM
Track seems faster today than it has been lately, but still very impressive.

GMB@BP
02-18-2018, 10:31 PM
Track seems faster today than it has been lately, but still very impressive.

definitely, horses went 21 2 and held on in the los flores.

cj
02-18-2018, 11:59 PM
definitely, horses went 21 2 and held on in the los flores.

It wasn't really any faster in the end than it has been...Justify ran a MONSTROUS number in my opinion.

cj
02-19-2018, 10:43 AM
It wasn't really any faster in the end than it has been...Justify ran a MONSTROUS number in my opinion.

131, with a couple points added to final time of 129 for pace.

Tom
02-19-2018, 10:50 AM
Can we re-vote on 3yo HOY 2017?

Where does this guy go from here? :eek:

GMB@BP
02-19-2018, 10:51 AM
Can we re-vote on 3yo HOY 2017?

Where does this guy go from here? :eek:

The moon...thats like what West Coast got in the travers, and is already the fastest figure run by any 3yo this year.

dasch
02-19-2018, 02:28 PM
I gave the race a strong number but nowhere near the 104 Beyer and 131 TF.

I am looking forward to betting against at *1-5

cj
02-19-2018, 04:18 PM
I gave the race a strong number but nowhere near the 104 Beyer and 131 TF.

I am looking forward to betting against at *1-5

How did you arrive at this? He was clearly faster than older fillies ran in the stakes race.

Robert Fischer
02-19-2018, 04:39 PM
Thought the Beyer seemed a little lower than I thought the performance warranted. I could be wrong. Only recently started incorporating Beyers (half for the Beyers' opinion and half to know what the public is seeing). Seems to almost be an 'initiation period' for most new horses, where their first Beyer (or two) is a little lower than the performance seemed to warrant, and then they jump up a little more dramatically than their visual improvement seems to show in subsequent starts. Eventually it seems to find it's level.

Was a little surprised that this Beyer wasn't a 115 or so. I understand that the Beyers have to scale to the complete order of finishers, so it may have put the runner up a little too high.

GMB@BP
02-19-2018, 04:49 PM
Some of the Baffert horses have flopped after these big mdn scores with fast figs but I dont think this is one of them. He did a couple things in the backstretch that showed some real talent.

cj
02-19-2018, 05:27 PM
Some of the Baffert horses have flopped after these big mdn scores with fast figs but I dont think this is one of them. He did a couple things in the backstretch that showed some real talent.

Sometimes these kinds of winners look great but the clock isn't anything special. Sometimes the race is fast but horses doesn't look that great. This guy had both IMO...fast and looked fabulous.

big frank
02-19-2018, 09:48 PM
Best 3yo i have seen so far !

dasch
02-19-2018, 10:38 PM
How did you arrive at this? He was clearly faster than older fillies ran in the stakes race.

I crunch the numbers(using pace and trip) race by race during the card assigning a number to each race. At the end of the day I see how things match up against each other but ALWAYS weigh the individual race number more than the "overall" as many things can cause variations race to race.

This particular race was the 1st dirt race of the day and crunching came up with 2 different variants, 1 being about where TF & Beyer has it and the other number lower. Things that happened later in the day(this is pretty much what you asked me but excuse me for not explaining in detail) gave me 95% confidence that the lower number is correct. Don't get me wrong it is still a strong win even at the lower number.

Spalding No!
02-19-2018, 11:35 PM
Can we re-vote on 3yo HOY 2017?

Where does this guy go from here? :eek:
Going to be an interesting dilemma for Baffert with respect to the Triple Crown.

He has been in this position or similar before and while he's been close a couple of times with them in the classics, he's never fully delivered. Furthermore, the effort usually comes with the cost of 6-12 months layup if not outright retirement.

2001 - Congaree, who made an early fall start at 2 before going to the sidelines, reappeared in a February maiden (off-the-turf mile) and romped. Took an allowance and the Wood Memorial in succession, gave a brave account in the Derby under a ridiculous pace, ho-hum in the Preakness, regrouped in the Swaps and then melted down at odds on in the Jim Dandy. Gone for several months afterwards and took over a year and a half to show anything like Grade 1 quality again.

2011 - Bodemeister takes a February route maiden in his second career start (debuted in January), then places in the San Felipe and romps in the Arkansas Derby. Couldn't stave off the streaking I'll Have Another in either the Derby or the Preakness then couldn't get out of gallop when aiming for the Haskell. Never ran again.

2014 - Bayern romps in a January 7f maiden, destroys an allowance route then sat out the month of March to await the Arkansas Derby where he flopped. Tossed into the Preakness after a disastrous Derby Trial, he folded like a cheap suit. The season went up and down like this the rest of the year, but was ultimately a success when eliminating both his pace rival (Moreno) and perhaps the best of horse in the race (Shared Belief) at the start of the BC Classic. The fact that he even carried on after the Preakness was a bit of surprise in the face of the demands placed on him early, but eventually the physical toll caught up with him and he was utterly useless as a 4yo.

2014 - Hoppertunity was blitzed by Bayern in his debut race, but romped right back in a route maiden. Was all over the place subsequently, running in major preps at Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita. Not surprisingly, with such management, he was a Derby week casualty after shipping to Churchill Downs, supposedly with a foot issue (that apparently got better with ankle surgery). Gone for 6 months and has had a prolonged and modestly successful career ever since.

Non-Baffert trained late-comers have faired a bit better.

Curlin went to Churchill with a bullet after romping in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby and despite wilting in the Derby, he took down the Preakness and just missed in the Belmont. Surprisingly, never missed a beat after that.

Red Bullet went through 6f, 7f, and 8f races starting in January before tasting defeat in the Wood Memorial. Wisely held from the Derby, he spoiled Fusaichi Pegasus' pre-ordained Triple Crown run by winning the Preakness. Imploded at 3-5 in the Dwyer (though he edged Belmont winner Commendable for 3rd to keep out of last place) and didn't start again for over a year. Never anything like Grade 1 when he finally returned.

Pulpit was put through the ringer after a sensational January 7f maiden at Gulfstream, taking down an allowance and Fountain of Youth, placing in the Florida Derby, and regrouping with a win in the Blue Grass all ahead of the Derby. At Churchill he was a tired horse down the lane, only managing a distance 4th. Never ran again.

I would guess Justify will target the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, given Baffert's prior success there. McKinzie seems distance-challenged to me, Solamini is of suspect physical robustness (lugs in, doesn't change leads in all starts), and Mourinho has never really looked like a top prospect. That means Justify is probably Baffert's main hope for the Triple Crown which in turn means he probably won't get the patient handling of Arrogate or even West Coast.

horses4courses
02-19-2018, 11:48 PM
Going to be an interesting dilemma for Baffert with respect to the Triple Crown.

He has been in this position or similar before and while he's been close a couple of times with them in the classics, he's never fully delivered. Furthermore, the effort usually comes with the cost of 6-12 months layup if not outright retirement.

2001 - Congaree, who made an early fall start at 2 before going to the sidelines, reappeared in a February maiden (off-the-turf mile) and romped. Took an allowance and the Wood Memorial in succession, gave a brave account in the Derby under a ridiculous pace, ho-hum in the Preakness, regrouped in the Swaps and then melted down at odds on in the Jim Dandy. Gone for several months afterwards and took over a year and a half to show anything like Grade 1 quality again.

2011 - Bodemeister takes a February route maiden in his second career start (debuted in January), then places in the San Felipe and romps in the Arkansas Derby. Couldn't stave off the streaking I'll Have Another in either the Derby or the Preakness then couldn't get out of gallop when aiming for the Haskell. Never ran again.

2014 - Bayern romps in a January 7f maiden, destroys an allowance route then sat out the month of March to await the Arkansas Derby where he flopped. Tossed into the Preakness after a disastrous Derby Trial, he folded like a cheap suit. The season went up and down like this the rest of the year, but was ultimately a success when eliminating both his pace rival (Moreno) and perhaps the best of horse in the race (Shared Belief) at the start of the BC Classic. The fact that he even carried on after the Preakness was a bit of surprise in the face of the demands placed on him early, but eventually the physical toll caught up with him and he was utterly useless as a 4yo.

2014 - Hoppertunity was blitzed by Bayern in his debut race, but romped right back in a route maiden. Was all over the place subsequently, running in major preps at Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita. Not surprisingly, with such management, he was a Derby week casualty after shipping to Churchill Downs, supposedly with a foot issue (that apparently got better with ankle surgery). Gone for 6 months and has had a prolonged and modestly successful career ever since.

Non-Baffert trained late-comers have faired a bit better.

Curlin went to Churchill with a bullet after romping in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby and despite wilting in the Derby, he took down the Preakness and just missed in the Belmont. Surprisingly, never missed a beat after that.

Red Bullet went through 6f, 7f, and 8f races starting in January before tasting defeat in the Wood Memorial. Wisely held from the Derby, he spoiled Fusaichi Pegasus' pre-ordained Triple Crown run by winning the Preakness. Imploded at 3-5 in the Dwyer (though he edged Belmont winner Commendable for 3rd to keep out of last place) and didn't start again for over a year. Never anything like Grade 1 when he finally returned.

Pulpit was put through the ringer after a sensational January 7f maiden at Gulfstream, taking down an allowance and Fountain of Youth, placing in the Florida Derby, and regrouping with a win in the Blue Grass all ahead of the Derby. At Churchill he was a tired horse down the lane, only managing a distance 4th. Never ran again.

I would guess Justify will target the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, given Baffert's prior success there. McKinzie seems distance-challenged to me, Solamini is of suspect physical robustness (lugs in, doesn't change leads in all starts), and Mourinho has never really looked like a top prospect. That means Justify is probably Baffert's main hope for the Triple Crown which in turn means he probably won't get the patient handling of Arrogate or even West Coast.

What?

The man has trained 4 KY Derby winners.....6 Preakness winners....
and 2 Belmont winners. :eek:

Sure, racing takes it toll on some of his horses.
Let me ask you this, though.
Who would you rather have train a TC prospect for you?
Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert?

Now, if your horse needs more time to mature, with a better
chance of success down the road, there might be other trainers.
If your horse has a future on turf - again, there might be other trainers.

To get you to Churchill Downs in May?
I'll take Baffert over anyone.

menifee
02-20-2018, 12:18 AM
What?

The man has trained 4 KY Derby winners.....6 Preakness winners....
and 2 Belmont winners. :eek:

Sure, racing takes it toll on some of his horses.
Let me ask you this, though.
Who would you rather have train a TC prospect for you?
Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert?

Now, if your horse needs more time to mature, with a better
chance of success down the road, there might be other trainers.
If your horse has a future on turf - again, there might be other trainers.

To get you to Churchill Downs in May?
I'll take Baffert over anyone.

I would take Baffert. If Baffert takes him to the Derby, he is basically trying to do what Curlin tried to do. Very tough to do. Winning the Derby in your 4th career start without a 2yo foundation is nearly impossible. That said, I still have not seen any world beaters yet in this division.

Spalding No!
02-20-2018, 12:36 AM
A few more late comers:

2006 - Bernardini broke his maiden in March (after debuting in January), and went on a massive tear taking the Preakness in his 4th career start and streaking through the rest of the year before getting out-footed by Invasor in the BC. Retired by design if I recall correctly and didn't start at 4.

2009 - Summer Bird debuts in March and yet makes the Derby after winning a route maiden and placing in the Arkansas Derby. No count at Churchill, but took down the Belmont and later the Travers and JCGC before being derailed by a synthetic surface in the BC. Connections refused to slow down, targeting the Japan Cup only a couple weeks after the BC Classic. Broke a leg in Japan training for the race and never ran again.

2017 - Cloud Computing made a winning debut in a 6f sprint in February, placed in the key Aqueduct preps before just edging the 2yo champion in the Preakness. Showed little in his 2 summer outs and hasn't been seen since, though he finally returned to the work tab yesterday.

Robert Fischer
02-20-2018, 12:55 AM
Mourhino (sp?) looked good to me today.

They made him work a couple of times in the mud.

I'd much rather see that, then see him control a slow pace and look like American Pharaoh. Now, you're gonna see bandwagoners jump off, and you may get 2-1 - 5/2 next time instead of 6/5 or whatever.

Jack is no Exaggerator, but Kent worked a dream trip.

Fair amount of value for a race that looked like a walkover on paper.

Spalding No!
02-20-2018, 12:56 AM
What?
"What" ain't no country I've ever heard of...

They read English in What?

The man has trained 4 KY Derby winners.....6 Preakness winners....
and 2 Belmont winners. :eek:

Sure, racing takes it toll on some of his horses.
Let me ask you this, though.
Who would you rather have train a TC prospect for you?
Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert?

Now, if your horse needs more time to mature, with a better
chance of success down the road, there might be other trainers.
If your horse has a future on turf - again, there might be other trainers.

To get you to Churchill Downs in May?
I'll take Baffert over anyone.
If we actually stick to the crux of my original post, which is focused on late-starting 3yos (and not horses trained by Bob Baffert), then from the historical evidence it seems pointless to even bother to get to Churchill Downs in May (never mind think that you have a shot to win).

It makes more sense to target the Preakness directly with such horses.

Spalding No!
02-20-2018, 01:25 AM
Mourhino (sp?) looked good to me today.

They made him work a couple of times in the mud.

I'd much rather see that, then see him control a slow pace and look like American Pharaoh. Now, you're gonna see bandwagoners jump off, and you may get 2-1 - 5/2 next time instead of 6/5 or whatever.

Jack is no Exaggerator, but Kent worked a dream trip.

Fair amount of value for a race that looked like a walkover on paper.
Appears to have a future as a stalking sprinter at best.

After an impressive debut he blew a 5-length lead into the stretch in a weak Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita. In the Bob Hope at Del Mar, he had dead-aim on the brave Greyvitos, collared him at the head of the stretch and was turned back. In the Smarty Jones he controlled a slow pace and looked like American Pharoah in a race with a shortened stretch run. In the Southwest he drew off seemingly in hand to the top of the lane and was swallowed up by not one, but many rivals.

I'll wait for the Woody Stephens, Allen Jerkens, etc., but he still needs to show quite a bit more fight and fortitude to achieve Grade 1 status.

cj
02-20-2018, 11:24 AM
I crunch the numbers(using pace and trip) race by race during the card assigning a number to each race. At the end of the day I see how things match up against each other but ALWAYS weigh the individual race number more than the "overall" as many things can cause variations race to race.

This particular race was the 1st dirt race of the day and crunching came up with 2 different variants, 1 being about where TF & Beyer has it and the other number lower. Things that happened later in the day(this is pretty much what you asked me but excuse me for not explaining in detail) gave me 95% confidence that the lower number is correct. Don't get me wrong it is still a strong win even at the lower number.

Thanks for that. I do similar. But in this case for me, the projected variants for the one race matched the rest of the card. Had I split the 6f and 7f races it would have been a point or two lower, but I decided not to do so.

Vinnie
02-20-2018, 11:41 AM
Hopefully he can stay very sound.... OMG!! What an engine. Watch out for this BIG GUY come the first Saturday in May... What an effort... Holy Toledo Batman!!

Robert Fischer
02-20-2018, 12:21 PM
(Mourinho)Appears to have a future as a stalking sprinter at best.
While I have no interest or prediction in his future (if we were pals, I'd bet you a $1 for the sake of argument) other than betting him as an overlay, should he be entered next in a derby prep route, we do have radically different form interpretation here;


...he blew a 5-length lead into the stretch in a weak Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita.
CJ, -Care to share the TimeformUS pace figs for this one?

-Speakeasy S. was clearly a hot 3-way pace duel vs. sprinters, where he put them away impressively, only to be run down deep stretch by a perfectly setup closer, who happened to capitalize fairly well in his opportunity that day with a game late run.
raw 21.1 44.2, bris +8 +9


In the Bob Hope at Del Mar, he had dead-aim on the brave Greyvitos, collared him at the head of the stretch and was turned back.
-Never at any point did he collar Greyvitos, although if he hadn't lost momentum on the turn while lugging in behind Greyvitos, it's possible that the top of the stretch would have had some action. Probably the fault of Mourhino(sp?), but the handling and right-hand whip certainly wasn't proactive. Greyvitos was 13-1, and controlled that pace. Bris had it -8 -8 for pace, so that may have helped Greyvitos control the pace and leave the 'good horses' too much to do, once they realized he wasn't folding.

In the Smarty Jones he controlled a slow pace and looked like American Pharoah in a race with a shortened stretch run.
We completely agree here. I feel like the previous races pointed to this. I feel like the workouts (most are available on xbtv.com for free) reinforced this.


In the Southwest he drew off seemingly in hand to the top of the lane and was swallowed up by not one, but many rivals.
He had to use some horse early after breaking a step slow, and having the 5 break inwards. Then at the half, apparently Johnny V thought he had a good horse in the 5, or the 5 ran away from him, or he had intentions of dueling Mourhino. For whatever reason, the 5 moved prematurely to get a head in front of Mourhino.
Mourhino then used more horse, whether jockey DVD ****ed up, or whether it's a fault that Mourhino has where he tends to put away dueling rivals with premature moves.
The track was also a muddy sloppy mess.
Mourhino was supposed to cruise around the track in front at an even pace, not make 2 moves and tough-out a surface. Had he the opportunity to run 'his' race, I have no doubt he would have repeated the Smarty Jones.


I'll wait for the Woody Stephens, Allen Jerkens, etc., but he still needs to show quite a bit more fight and fortitude to achieve Grade 1 status.
If he runs in those races, he'll be no more than a 'use' if I happen to be stringing multis. I also have no interest or expectation of him ever being a true Grade 1 horse, but I do expect him to win his next race, should he be entered in a derby prep at a route.

dasch
02-20-2018, 12:43 PM
I crunch the numbers(using pace and trip) race by race during the card assigning a number to each race. At the end of the day I see how things match up against each other but ALWAYS weigh the individual race number more than the "overall" as many things can cause variations race to race.

This particular race was the 1st dirt race of the day and crunching came up with 2 different variants, 1 being about where TF & Beyer has it and the other number lower. Things that happened later in the day(this is pretty much what you asked me but excuse me for not explaining in detail) gave me 95% confidence that the lower number is correct. Don't get me wrong it is still a strong win even at the lower number.

To be a little more precise, the number I ended up with(and again will say am very confident in) was equivalent to a win in a Santa Anita 3&up Alw2x, a VERY nice race for a debuting 3yo just not freaky.

Spalding No!
02-20-2018, 12:48 PM
While I have no interest or prediction in his future (if we were pals, I'd bet you a $1 for the sake of argument) other than betting him as an overlay, should he be entered next in a derby prep route, we do have radically different form interpretation here;

If he runs in those races, he'll be no more than a 'use' if I happen to be stringing multis. I also have no interest or expectation of him ever being a true Grade 1 horse, but I do expect him to win his next race, should he be entered in a derby prep at a route.

Your point is taken with regards to the muddy track, where perhaps all bets are off in terms of outcome. However, I believe the track was sealed, and in general, that should favor frontrunners.

Also, point taken with regards to him running a better race next out. I was commenting on his long term prospects. Certainly if he shows up for a race like the Sunland Park Derby, he might give them all they can handle.

That aside, it seems like you are saying that his "normal" race should be for him to walk on the lead with no pressure and then we will see the "real" Mourinho. Any sort of pace pressure or challenges should not be the norm. That might be the reality in 6-horse fields in SoCal but those are not true races. Any speed horse will look otherworldly under those conditions.

If Mourinho can't handle dueling with horses that can't win allowance races subsequently or filly Cal-bred claimers (see the field for the Speakeasy) then when its all said and done, he simply isn't much horse.

jocko699
02-20-2018, 02:31 PM
A few more late comers:

2006 - Bernardini broke his maiden in March (after debuting in January), and went on a massive tear taking the Preakness in his 4th career start and streaking through the rest of the year before getting out-footed by Invasor in the BC. Retired by design if I recall correctly and didn't start at 4.

2009 - Summer Bird debuts in March and yet makes the Derby after winning a route maiden and placing in the Arkansas Derby. No count at Churchill, but took down the Belmont and later the Travers and JCGC before being derailed by a synthetic surface in the BC. Connections refused to slow down, targeting the Japan Cup only a couple weeks after the BC Classic. Broke a leg in Japan training for the race and never ran again.

2017 - Cloud Computing made a winning debut in a 6f sprint in February, placed in the key Aqueduct preps before just edging the 2yo champion in the Preakness. Showed little in his 2 summer outs and hasn't been seen since, though he finally returned to the work tab yesterday.

Thank you for reminding me of this race:rant::rant::rant:

cj
02-20-2018, 02:42 PM
CJ, -Care to share the TimeformUS pace figs for this one?

-Speakeasy S. was clearly a hot 3-way pace duel vs. sprinters, where he put them away impressively, only to be run down deep stretch by a perfectly setup closer, who happened to capitalize fairly well in his opportunity that day with a game late run.
raw 21.1 44.2, bris +8 +9





104 that day after a 108 debut. He won the pace duel but lost the war, but he was on the outside of that three horse duel and it wasn't a very long duel as he cleared before the turn if memory serves.

ultracapper
02-20-2018, 09:44 PM
Wow! That was pretty impressive. We'll know more what Baffert thinks if he moves away from DVD and on to VEspinoza or MSmith.

GMB@BP
02-21-2018, 07:41 AM
Wow! That was pretty impressive. We'll know more what Baffert thinks if he moves away from DVD and on to VEspinoza or MSmith.

I dont think that is accurate at all right now. Baffert has been using DVD on many of his good young horses right now. Owner may have something to say I suppose but doubt it.

Vinnie
02-21-2018, 09:23 AM
DVD, Flavien Prat, Tyler Gaffalione, Dylan Davis, etc., etc...right now. Heck, you put any of these guys and many others that I am in no way intentionally neglecting to mention on the "Best Horse" at any given time and they will get the job done for you. The horse has always been in my estimation far more important than the passenger. If the horse isn't ready mentally, physically and fitness wise, no man or woman due to his/her own efforts is going to be able to on sheer will and intestinal fortitude "will" that magnificent, big beautiful creature home ahead of his competitors in any race. It just isn't going to happen.

ultracapper
02-21-2018, 01:34 PM
If Baffert doesn't put one of the big veteran guns on him by start #3, I would take that as a negative.

Vinnie
02-21-2018, 02:56 PM
If he shows the ability to stretch out his efforts with the increase in distance and the ability to carry his speed equally as well in longer races which I am of the firm belief that he will, this horse will be very tough no matter who is on him whether it be DVD, VHS, CD-R, DVR or M. Smith or V. Espinoza. LOL... :)

ultracapper
02-21-2018, 03:53 PM
HA!!!

I agree that the horse will stretch out just fine.

Even with a cassette tape on his back.

Vinnie
02-21-2018, 03:58 PM
You have to forgive me my silliness ultracapper. I was just playing around of course. I well understand your point believe me... :) It is a point well taken.

classhandicapper
02-21-2018, 07:58 PM
I didn't think that was an especially strong MSW field, but the performance within it was impressive. He was away a little slowly, rushed up a bit, between horses briefly, put them away and drew off without being asked for his best. We'll see if he can carry that speed further and learn to rate, but that was damn good.

Spalding No!
02-21-2018, 08:15 PM
I agree that the horse will stretch out just fine.

While Scat Daddy has been mostly a sire of turf sprinters (at least in Europe), a mile seems to be in their wheelhouse and the odd progeny can get a classic distance (Dacita, Lady of Shamrock, Daddys Lil Darling). Not a lot of main track success as far as Graded stakes go, however.

On the bottom side, the first 3 dams all won races up to 8.5f on the main track with some minor stakes placings. The female family has produced modest stakes horses like Spellbound which won the two-turn La Canada for Richard Mandella and Preakness and Travers starter Kid Cruz who was unceremoniously dumped for $40K (and bowed a tendon and was vanned off) after 3 full seasons running in stakes races.

Speaking of claiming races, the connections of Justify's 4yo half-sister (Holiday Music, by top sire Harlan's Holiday) may have made a major flub when they dropped her in for a mere $30K claiming price last month at Fair Grounds. She won and was claimed. The new connections might not have to do much other than sit back and watch what unfolds over the next few months. They may turn a profit of astronomic proportions in one of the breeding stock sales at the end of the year if all the hype pans out.

cj
02-21-2018, 08:22 PM
As a fan of the game, I hope he is the next Seattle Slew. As a bettor, I know that the majority of horses that run huge first out usually blow up sooner rather than later and that is how I'll approach the horse for now.

Vinnie
02-21-2018, 08:29 PM
As a fan of the game, I hope he is the next Seattle Slew. As a bettor, I know that the majority of horses that run huge first out usually blow up sooner rather than later and that is how I'll approach the horse for now.

Very well stated CJ! For the reasons that you stated, I will remain cautiously optimistic... :)

Spalding No!
02-21-2018, 08:50 PM
As a fan of the game, I hope he is the next Seattle Slew. As a bettor, I know that the majority of horses that run huge first out usually blow up sooner rather than later and that is how I'll approach the horse for now.
That's what I was hoping for in American Pharoah, but the horse "lucked" into a bunch of paceless races for the most part and he didn't come out to race at 4. A lot of the reasons for those are the current state of both the racing and the breeding industry.

I'll settle for the next Congaree.

Lemon Drop Husker
02-21-2018, 11:37 PM
When is my next opportunity to bet against a 1/9 chalk?

classhandicapper
02-22-2018, 08:52 AM
As a fan of the game, I hope he is the next Seattle Slew. As a bettor, I know that the majority of horses that run huge first out usually blow up sooner rather than later and that is how I'll approach the horse for now.

If we was Seattle Slew he would have gotten totally left, rushed up, drew off, and people would have said he beat nobody. ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUOucngw58g

Second start: Away badly; rushed on a totally dead rail, won for fun.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O44r12K9dXw

Tom
02-22-2018, 09:32 AM
If only they would run this one like Slew - hard, fast, and often.
Today's racing schedule pretty much prevents great horse from emerging, IMHO. That's why we get one at a time nowadays.

Hello world, losing a race now and then is not the end of the horse.

Vinnie
03-06-2018, 03:39 PM
You can't say that Justify is not on some folks radar after posting such a razor sharp 104 Beyer (and 131 TFUS) figure on his debut on Feb. 18th at the Great Race Place. It is notable however that he hasn't accumulated any genuine "Derby points" at this stage in the game. I don't know if he can or will eventually become the Wiseguy horse as we are quickly approaching the Derby with the passing of each day, but, I would like to consider him to be the "Stupendous Yappi" (from X Files) fame under the radar type pick for Derby 2018.... :)

ultracapper
03-08-2018, 12:47 AM
Raced 17 days ago and already has 2 5f works recorded since. Race mustn't have taken much out of him.

cj
03-08-2018, 09:11 AM
Raced 17 days ago and already has 2 5f works recorded since. Race mustn't have taken much out of him.

I watched his latest, looked very good.

Here it is, actually:

https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/justify-outside-and-nero-worked-5-furlongs-on-march-5th-2018-at-santa-anita-park/

His workmate is no slouch either.

Vinnie
03-08-2018, 11:21 AM
Thank you CJ!! Full of zest and vigor. Really love how he moves. I truly think that you are going to see some Big things from this horse.. Very Nice!! :)

horses4courses
03-08-2018, 11:52 AM
I heard Sunland Park is the target for Justify
50 points to the winner - plenty to get into the Derby.

Bennie
03-08-2018, 02:35 PM
Staying away from the Big boys and possible derby points would probably make sense and getting what might be a little bit easier field but the problem after that is that with the date of the Sunland being 3/25 would they run him again with 6 weeks before the Derby or go off 6 weeks break.

Bennie
03-08-2018, 05:33 PM
going to run in an allowance race this Sunday. then staying home and maybe eye the Santa Anita Derby.

GMB@BP
03-09-2018, 07:49 AM
They did make a rider change. A bit surprised.

Spalding No!
03-09-2018, 09:04 AM
They did make a rider change. A bit surprised.
Especially when you consider the botched rides for the similarly-owned Abel Tasman that theoretically could have cost her the Eclipse Award.

However, when you are dealing with 3 (never mind 1) big owner groups with a stake in the horse, you have to figure that at least one of their genius racing managers came up with the demand for a "name" rider.

Vinnie
03-09-2018, 09:14 AM
Well said Spalding No:

DVD handled him perfectly in his debut. There is no reason to believe that he isn't capable of handling him in pretty much any scenario that he may come across, however, there is probably a handful of hands in the veritable pot... :confused:

GMB@BP
03-09-2018, 10:07 AM
Especially when you consider the botched rides for the similarly-owned Abel Tasman that theoretically could have cost her the Eclipse Award.

However, when you are dealing with 3 (never mind 1) big owner groups with a stake in the horse, you have to figure that at least one of their genius racing managers came up with the demand for a "name" rider.

Baffert has been a bit critical with some of his comments about rides the past few weeks.

I am not big on rider switches to big name riders. I still remember Bailey trying to get on both Azeri and Vindication. One worked, one didnt. I feel like there can be some karma with that stuff as well.

Riding for Baffert is tough work, you are expected to work 5-8 horses for him yet he can get upset enough to boot you right quick.

ubercapper
03-09-2018, 11:39 AM
going to run in an allowance race this Sunday. then staying home and maybe eye the Santa Anita Derby.

I found this race so interesting I made it the one I put up analysis for at the Santa Anita web site: http://www.santaanita.com/author/ellisstarr/

Thomas Roulston
03-10-2018, 12:56 PM
Did even Apollo not race in January of his 3-year-old season?

Vinnie
03-10-2018, 04:47 PM
Goodness gracious DVD En Fuego!! 4 for 4 in first four races at Santa Anita today... :headbanger:

GMB@BP
03-11-2018, 10:34 AM
Catches a pretty decent field for a 1st level allowance, at least pre-scatches

1st time versus winners
1st time around 2 turns
off track
field loaded with speed
likely gets caught wide

1/9...seems like a good spot to take a stab against, likely in a pick 3 or double should I find something in the other races.

outofthebox
03-11-2018, 04:28 PM
Tipped the scale at 1258 lbs..Massive colt...

Tom
03-11-2018, 04:36 PM
Looks like a monster next his work mate Nero.

jocko699
03-11-2018, 04:37 PM
Good workout in 135 and 3

Tom
03-11-2018, 04:40 PM
I thought the :4: pulled up at first.

Vinnie
03-11-2018, 04:47 PM
Goodness this horse can just "Cruise" along like nobody's business. What a specimen of a horse.... :headbanger:

outofthebox
03-11-2018, 04:49 PM
Just a note of interest. The groom of Justify also had American Pharaoh and Arrogate.

Robert Fischer
03-11-2018, 04:58 PM
Hey guys, I saw a 3yo today, his name is Justify and it's too early to tell, but he may be a pretty good colt. Wanted to start a thread, but saw this had already been started...

Vinnie
03-11-2018, 05:04 PM
Is it too early or premature to say that there isn't a faster three year old in the country currently running than this guy? I hope that he can just stay healthy and sound so we may get the opportunity to see him do some special things.

GMB@BP
03-11-2018, 05:12 PM
He has run really fast twice now, not only was that final time quick but it was also a very fast pace.

That being said he has outclassed and had two PT in a row, compared to say McKinzie and BoltDOro who have both had some adversity.

Secondbest
03-11-2018, 05:14 PM
Just like the track announcer said. “The most talented horse to race this weekend”.

GMB@BP
03-11-2018, 05:14 PM
Just like the track announcer said. “The most talented horse to race this weekend”.

I think he was posing the question.

Secondbest
03-11-2018, 05:16 PM
If he was . To me the answer is yes.

cj
03-11-2018, 05:28 PM
He has run really fast twice now, not only was that final time quick but it was also a very fast pace.

That being said he has outclassed and had two PT in a row, compared to say McKinzie and BoltDOro who have both had some adversity.

Today's trip only looked perfect because he is so fast IMO. He was three wide all the way around the first turn when the pace was (I think) fast. Those are the kinds of horses I like to bet back when they don't finish well.

Vinnie
03-11-2018, 06:07 PM
Where will he be headed in search of those valuable Derby Points? Will he be venturing out to Sunland Park for the Sunland Derby on March 25th, or, will he be staying at home for the Santa Anita Derby? Any thoughts?....:)

cj
03-11-2018, 06:10 PM
Where will he be headed in search of those valuable Derby Points? Will he be venturing out to Sunland Park for the Sunland Derby on March 25th, or, will he be staying at home for the Santa Anita Derby? Any thoughts?....:)

I would think SA or Arkansas Derby. Sunland is too close IMO.

Robert Fischer
03-11-2018, 06:15 PM
Today's trip only looked perfect because he is so fast IMO. He was three wide all the way around the first turn when the pace was (I think) fast. Those are the kinds of horses I like to bet back when they don't finish well.

I agree. I saw the first turn and said to myself "no longer 1/9", but it didn't seem to phase him vs. these.

That said, it wasn't the toughest race. The 'loose' leader never looked comfortable or particularly scary, and Shivermetimbers? the other E/P didn't exactly respond to move with him.

He (obviously) looks great. The way the Derby has been run since the point system weeded out some of the sprint stakes qualifiers, he doesn't appear to have to really prove a lot of versatility. He's not yet run in a stakes race, but in terms of ability, he looks like a Derby favorite who should win or contend unless there is an extreme pace meltdown.

Bennie
03-11-2018, 06:47 PM
The story was he is scheduled to hang around for the Santa Anita Derby. Be interesting now to see who ships out to avoid him.

Afleet
03-11-2018, 07:50 PM
The story was he is scheduled to hang around for the Santa Anita Derby. Be interesting now to see who ships out to avoid him.

Baffert made it sound like he was shipping Mckenzie for his next race

Robert Fischer
03-11-2018, 08:21 PM
Mourinho to Sunland Derby :)


anyone? anyone?

Afleet
03-11-2018, 08:29 PM
Mourinho to Sunland Derby :)


anyone? anyone?
probable for the Rebel, but so is Solomini. Doesnt seem likely Baffert would run them both

f2tornado
03-11-2018, 08:49 PM
Looked impressive beating a short field of non winners other than maiden. He may or may not have Smith next time. Zero points, Storm Cat curse, Apollo curse, and ended up the Derby favorite in Pool 3 (excluding the field). Odd.

jocko699
03-11-2018, 09:33 PM
Looked impressive beating a short field of non winners other than maiden. He may or may not have Smith next time. Zero points, Storm Cat curse, Apollo curse, and ended up the Derby favorite in Pool 3 (excluding the field). Odd.

Um, Hillary could not be beaten also. Stats are something to be used but eventually the Storm Cat curse will be stopped. Look at the Cubs!!!!

Vinnie
03-11-2018, 09:35 PM
So true!! Very well said jocko699. :)

Vinnie
03-11-2018, 09:38 PM
He's also out of Johannesburg and Ghostzapper who was a beast in his day...

jocko699
03-11-2018, 09:41 PM
He's also out of Johannesburg and Ghostzapper who was a beast in his day...

One day I may tell you the story of my buddy sitting with Reddam in the owner's box at the BC with Johannesburg.:headbanger:

Vinnie
03-11-2018, 09:44 PM
One day I may tell you the story of my buddy sitting with Reddam in the owner's box at the BC with Johannesburg.:headbanger:

I would love to hear it sometime jocko.... :) I miss OKC brother. I haven't lived there in nearly 20 years.

f2tornado
03-11-2018, 10:28 PM
Um, Hillary could not be beaten also. Stats are something to be used but eventually the Storm Cat curse will be stopped. Look at the Cubs!!!!

I don't disagree. I merely pointed out two statistics that make this horse a poor choice for current favoritism. This is not a silly statement as your other post stated. If you bet on the Cubs for 100 years in a row or Storm Cat sons in the Derby every year then you lost a lot of money. Storm Cats are 0-51 yet comprise 13% of the starters. By random chance alone, they should have won several already. Next, does he get Smith for the Derby or does Smith stick with McKinzie. That unknown is a minor ding. He has ZERO points. He has one shot to make the gate. If he gets sick or tweaks a muscle he's toast. He has not raced longer than a mile. Will his speed hold an extra panel and eventually two? A lot of bad history and unknowns. Yes, he looked real sharp today against a short field but I have seen so many horses run 8F and 8.5F burners only to fizzle in the Derby. What makes this one any different?

One thing I do like is he from female family 1. This family has been the best performing in the Derby in recent decades. I'd like to think dosage is still worth something and he checks in at a respectable 3.00.

cj
03-11-2018, 10:35 PM
One day I may tell you the story of my buddy sitting with Reddam in the owner's box at the BC with Johannesburg.:headbanger:

Only if I can tag along! :)

jocko699
03-11-2018, 10:39 PM
Only if I can tag along! :)

Negative nightrider, the pattern is full:headbanger::headbanger::headbanger:

cj
03-11-2018, 10:57 PM
Justify will get a TimeformUS Speed Figure of around 125 for today's win. For comparisons sake, McKinzie ran 124 yesterday and Bolt d'Oro ran a 123.

picojim
03-12-2018, 12:13 PM
Mourinho to Sunland Derby :)


anyone? anyone?

Saddened to confirm that Mourinho was critically injured while training earlier this morning @santaanitapark and was euthanized. Sympathies to the @PhoenixThoroug1 Team & Baffert barn..

Robert Fischer
03-12-2018, 12:39 PM
Saddened to confirm that Mourinho was critically injured while training earlier this morning @santaanitapark and was euthanized. Sympathies to the @PhoenixThoroug1 Team & Baffert barn..

that sucks. Sorry to hear that.

classhandicapper
03-12-2018, 12:51 PM
Funniest line I've seen so far about trying to beat Justify after watching yesterdays race, "We are going to need a bigger boat". :lol:

Sometimes I like to take a shot against horses that put up big figures in softer fields when they finally get tested, but this one looks like he's a good candidate to fire a new top when he's finally asked to run.

Afleet
03-12-2018, 03:18 PM
Saddened to confirm that Mourinho was critically injured while training earlier this morning @santaanitapark and was euthanized. Sympathies to the @PhoenixThoroug1 Team & Baffert barn..

horrible news, I was looking forward to his next race.

jocko699
03-12-2018, 04:07 PM
Saddened to confirm that Mourinho was critically injured while training earlier this morning @santaanitapark and was euthanized. Sympathies to the @PhoenixThoroug1 Team & Baffert barn..

What terrible, terrible news. RIP Mourinho.

dasch
03-12-2018, 05:20 PM
Funniest line I've seen so far about trying to beat Justify after watching yesterdays race, "We are going to need a bigger boat". :lol:

Sometimes I like to take a shot against horses that put up big figures in softer fields when they finally get tested, but this one looks like he's a good candidate to fire a new top when he's finally asked to run.

Going into the race yesterday on the "slower" number I gave Justify in his 1st race , I had him 6 lengths better than the 2nd placer and 9 better than the 4th placer and thats basically how they finished.

I was one of the ones looking forward to bet against him but yesterday was NOT the day and I am still looking forward to against a decent field.

GMB@BP
03-12-2018, 07:06 PM
Going into the race yesterday on the "slower" number I gave Justify in his 1st race , I had him 6 lengths better than the 2nd placer and 9 better than the 4th placer and thats basically how they finished.

I was one of the ones looking forward to bet against him but yesterday was NOT the day and I am still looking forward to against a decent field.

it helps if you say that before the race!!!!

dasch
03-12-2018, 10:19 PM
it helps if you say that before the race!!!!

Very true but the 2nd & 3rd placers were adding blinkers and the track was sloppy so while the 6 lengths was too much for ME to bet against I certainly wouldn't talk andybody out of betting against in those circumstances when the 2nd choice was 14-1!

ultracapper
03-13-2018, 02:47 PM
MSmith will stay here.

GMB@BP
03-13-2018, 02:58 PM
MSmith will stay here.

great, it could be Talkin Man versus Thunder Gulch all over again

picking the talented lightly raced horses versus the proven winner. Look forward to that again, lol.

Spalding No!
03-13-2018, 07:26 PM
great, it could be Talkin Man versus Thunder Gulch all over again

picking the talented lightly raced horses versus the proven winner. Look forward to that again, lol.
Talkin Man was a champion 2yo in Canada and participated in the BC Juvenile after starting his career in July. Thunder Gulch didn't start his 2yo campaign til September. Talkin Man had more career wins (won 5 of his last 6) leading up to the Derby, too.

In addition, Smith got off both Thunder Gulch and Talkin Man the race before the Derby (the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial, respectively). He opted to keep the mount on 4yo BC Classic winner Concern, which he picked up from Jerry Bailey, for the Oaklawn Handicap. In that race Concern futilely chased the budding superhorse Cigar, who was of course ridden by Jerry Bailey.

GMB@BP
03-13-2018, 09:06 PM
Talkin Man was a champion 2yo in Canada and participated in the BC Juvenile after starting his career in July. Thunder Gulch didn't start his 2yo campaign til September. Talkin Man had more career wins (won 5 of his last 6) leading up to the Derby, too.

In addition, Smith got off both Thunder Gulch and Talkin Man the race before the Derby (the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial, respectively). He opted to keep the mount on 4yo BC Classic winner Concern, which he picked up from Jerry Bailey, for the Oaklawn Handicap. In that race Concern futilely chased the budding superhorse Cigar, who was of course ridden by Jerry Bailey.

Interesting, I only remember Thunder Gulch running in many preps that winter spring versus Talkin Man but it was a long long time ago.

cj
03-13-2018, 10:16 PM
Talkin Man was a champion 2yo in Canada and participated in the BC Juvenile after starting his career in July. Thunder Gulch didn't start his 2yo campaign til September. Talkin Man had more career wins (won 5 of his last 6) leading up to the Derby, too.

In addition, Smith got off both Thunder Gulch and Talkin Man the race before the Derby (the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial, respectively). He opted to keep the mount on 4yo BC Classic winner Concern, which he picked up from Jerry Bailey, for the Oaklawn Handicap. In that race Concern futilely chased the budding superhorse Cigar, who was of course ridden by Jerry Bailey.

Thunder Gulch did win the Remsen which probably trumped anything Talkin Man did at 2. I can't remember if Lukas trained him at 2 but I feel like he didn't.

Spalding No!
03-13-2018, 10:30 PM
Thunder Gulch did win the Remsen which probably trumped anything Talkin Man did at 2. I can't remember if Lukas trained him at 2 but I feel like he didn't.
Thunder Gulch did a lot of late season 2yo work after switching from John Kimmel to Wayne Lukas after Coolmore partner Michael Tabor bought him. He won the Remsen like you said and then ran second behind the streaking Afternoon Deelites (the West Coast answer to Talkin Man really).

Talkin Man did nearly all his 2yo work in Canada, winning 3 stakes by daylight. In that respect, he was a bit dressed up. In fact, he was exposed badly in the BC Juvenile, showing speed and getting buried in the stretch, not only by several horses that ended up in the Derby (Timber Country, Eltish, Tejano Run) but also at the home of the Derby...i.e., Churchill Downs...and also under Mike Smith.

Why anyone would think his blowout wins at Aqueduct (Gotham and Wood)--at the time a poor source of classic prospects--somehow invalidated the BC effort, never mind made him deserved of favortism in the Derby, is anyone's guess.

Spalding No!
03-13-2018, 10:44 PM
Interesting, I only remember Thunder Gulch running in many preps that winter spring versus Talkin Man but it was a long long time ago.
Thunder Gulch ran in 3 preps vs. Talkin Man's 2, but Thunder Gulch also ran in several late season 2yo races (Nashua, Remsen, Hollywood Futurity) so he had a lot more recency than the latter. In fact, Thunder Gulch would proved to be overraced the remainder of his career, competing in all 3 Classics, then shipping back west for the Swaps only a few weeks later. He won the Travers, then tried to squeeze in 2 more starts before the BC in the Kentucky Cup Classic and then the Jockey Club Gold Cup only 2 weeks later. Broke a leg in the latter chasing Cigar.

Talkin Man also tanked in the Preakness and supposedly bled badly in that race. The hype didn't let up much despite being exposed in the BC Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby as he went off as second choice at 3-1 (Thunder Gulch was 7-2) in the Preakness. He never ran again.

I'm going to guess you confused Talkin Man with Alydeed, who was also a Canadian colt owned by Kinghaven Farm and trained by Roger Attfield. A couple years before Talkin Man, Alydeed won the Derby Trial by open lengths in just his 4th career start and then nearly stole the Preakness, just getting rundown in the stretch late by the ill-fated Prairie Bayou (who was ridden by Mike Smith).

GMB@BP
03-14-2018, 10:05 AM
Thunder Gulch ran in 3 preps vs. Talkin Man's 2, but Thunder Gulch also ran in several late season 2yo races (Nashua, Remsen, Hollywood Futurity) so he had a lot more recency than the latter. In fact, Thunder Gulch would proved to be overraced the remainder of his career, competing in all 3 Classics, then shipping back west for the Swaps only a few weeks later. He won the Travers, then tried to squeeze in 2 more starts before the BC in the Kentucky Cup Classic and then the Jockey Club Gold Cup only 2 weeks later. Broke a leg in the latter chasing Cigar.

Talkin Man also tanked in the Preakness and supposedly bled badly in that race. The hype didn't let up much despite being exposed in the BC Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby as he went off as second choice at 3-1 (Thunder Gulch was 7-2) in the Preakness. He never ran again.

I'm going to guess you confused Talkin Man with Alydeed, who was also a Canadian colt owned by Kinghaven Farm and trained by Roger Attfield. A couple years before Talkin Man, Alydeed won the Derby Trial by open lengths in just his 4th career start and then nearly stole the Preakness, just getting rundown in the stretch late by the ill-fated Prairie Bayou (who was ridden by Mike Smith).

Yea maybe, what you say about Thunder Gulch is maybe consistent with what into the decision.

Prof.Factor
03-14-2018, 11:16 AM
Just going off memory (so correct me if I'm wrong), I thought Thunder Gulch got smoked by Wild Syn in one of the Florida prep races?

Spalding No!
03-14-2018, 06:39 PM
Just going off memory (so correct me if I'm wrong), I thought Thunder Gulch got smoked by Wild Syn in one of the Florida prep races?
It was the Blue Grass. The race was billed as a rematch between Thunder Gulch and Suave Prospect who dueled together in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby (Thunder Gulch won both photos). Instead, Wild Syn was allowed to walk on the lead in an era when Keeneland was considering a conveyor belt for speed horses while the jockeys on the two favorites (Pat Day and Julie Krone) waited on one another to make the first move.

I'm not sure why that made Thunder Gulch a toss in the Derby, going off at nearly 30-1, but I suppose he simply got overlooked in the big field, especially with the recent defeat, the musical jockeys (Gary Stevens was his 3rd rider in as many starts), and the fact that trainer Wayne Lukas had two other top prospects in champion juvenile Timber Country and iron filly Serena's Song.

Prof.Factor
03-15-2018, 09:49 AM
Thank-you for that.

rrpic6
03-16-2018, 07:47 AM
It was the Blue Grass. The race was billed as a rematch between Thunder Gulch and Suave Prospect who dueled together in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby (Thunder Gulch won both photos). Instead, Wild Syn was allowed to walk on the lead in an era when Keeneland was considering a conveyor belt for speed horses while the jockeys on the two favorites (Pat Day and Julie Krone) waited on one another to make the first move.

Thanks for another bad memory. I recall yelling profanities at Patient Pat at a local OTB while flinging losing tickets in the air. I ate a lot of crackers for the next 2 weeks.

RR

BIG49010
03-16-2018, 08:01 AM
A little color on Thunder Gulch story, he was completely washed out before the Bluegrass, I am not sure if it was a reaction to the big crowd, or in those days Lukas was doing some interesting things too. Three weeks later he won the Derby at a huge price, and he looked the part!

dasch
04-07-2018, 08:09 PM
WOW! No matter what number you gave him in his 1st race he ran better than that number today!

Today was my 1st and last time betting against him. My only concern is if he comes out of the race ok.

RunForTheRoses
04-07-2018, 08:27 PM
WOW! No matter what number you gave him in his 1st race he ran better than that number today!

Today was my 1st and last time betting against him. My only concern is if he comes out of the race ok.

Yeah, that is something special. But I will bet against at right price.

Amazing horse though, the 3 is quite a horse and had no chance.

depalma113
04-08-2018, 05:10 AM
Yeah, that is something special. But I will bet against at right price.

Amazing horse though, the 3 is quite a horse and had no chance.

Loose on the lead at Santa Anita going 1:12 and change, there was no way anyone would catch him. Now he gets to travel, face a real field of horses with a big bullseye on his back. That's a lot to overcome for a favorite and makes him a strong bet against.

Add that Bolt d'Oro grabbed a quarter and a mile and a quarter is probably too long for him, I don't see the winner coming from California this year.

ultracapper
04-08-2018, 06:57 AM
OOOPS!!

The first chink in the armor is exposed.

I'll never forget the final 5/16ths that American Pharoah ran in the slop in Arkansas which totally gave it away that he wouldn't have any problem with the classic distances. Sorry folks. We didn't see that from this one at Santa Anita. There was absolutely zip impressive about his final 3/8ths.

Somebody a number of pages back questioned his distance limitations (maybe Spaulding?). I think he was on to something. Have to agree with the post directly above me.

betovernetcapper
04-08-2018, 09:24 AM
Typically to win the Derby a horse has to have Beyer figs of 100+. Among this year's 3 year olds, that is a very short list. He's had 3 starts running a 101, then a 104 and yesterday's race which is probably going to be a 105-108. I'm not seeing anyone around to match those figs.
After 3 starts he has won about a million & a quarter. Not bad for a colt with allowance conditions left. Going into the gate he was a little washy and Smith said he became a bit distracted at some point. Considering those two things, even more improvement may be on the horizon.
Re his being loose on the lead, if you look at the chart, Bolt actually was 1st at the break but didn't hold the lead for long. When Castellano made his move, it was described as urging, but it really looked as though he was working his horse hard, while Smith was sitting chilly the entire race.
I don't bet CD, so I don't have a Derby pick, but if I did, at this point I'm not seeing anyone else. :)

burnsy
04-08-2018, 10:55 AM
Hard to figure seeing how that race was run, I don't see the Derby being one pace like that, this horse could be anything from a star to a disappointment.

I do know one thing. Confucius says, when someone says they don't see anyone else...........look at everyone else. I'll have someone i like but only a fool sits on one horse in this cattle call.

Secondbest
04-08-2018, 11:25 AM
I can't quite say what I was expecting but whatever it was I didn't see it.
He did run a sub 38 but as the derby favorite I don't know.

Bennie
04-08-2018, 01:26 PM
There are many people who are totally impressed by what they have seen so far but I am not one who would take 3-1 in the futures on this horse. You will get that price come derby day if you still want it but what if he draws a post like #20. I can see there is going to be an ample amount of early paced horses if all the top point earners go. Horses like Flameaway, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn, Noble Indy, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Runaway Ghost. He may just prove to be the next big thing but I will wait till the first Saturday in May to make any decision but maybe getting bit in the butt, I am one who will not use him on top. I will however congratulate those who do if they should win.

Vinnie
04-08-2018, 01:36 PM
Typically to win the Derby a horse has to have Beyer figs of 100+. Among this year's 3 year olds, that is a very short list. He's had 3 starts running a 101, then a 104 and yesterday's race which is probably going to be a 105-108. I'm not seeing anyone around to match those figs.
After 3 starts he has won about a million & a quarter. Not bad for a colt with allowance conditions left. Going into the gate he was a little washy and Smith said he became a bit distracted at some point. Considering those two things, even more improvement may be on the horizon.
Re his being loose on the lead, if you look at the chart, Bolt actually was 1st at the break but didn't hold the lead for long. When Castellano made his move, it was described as urging, but it really looked as though he was working his horse hard, while Smith was sitting chilly the entire race.
I don't bet CD, so I don't have a Derby pick, but if I did, at this point I'm not seeing anyone else. :)

Totally agree with and enjoyed your post. :) Have a wonderful weekend.

dasch
04-08-2018, 01:36 PM
It appears that you have to be a number maker of some kind to appreciate the effort yesterday. His last 2 races he was beating the equivalent of claimers versus running against a proven grade 1 horse yesterday. People fawned all over him when beating NOTHING and the same people weren't impressed yesterday, LOL

I can say that the SA Derby number was SO EASY to make that I didn't even need for the Oaks to run to verify anything. I had the race equivalent to 133-135 on the Timeform scale and they gave it a 132.

One interesting thing is the Beyer. Doug Salvatore posted on twitter this morning that in the Oaks all 9 horses were given lower beyers than their previous. He thought it should have been 5 points higher and the 107 number given to Justify is 5 points less than the "usual" Timefore to Beyer equivalent. Did they "adjust" the Oaks down so they wouldn't have to give Justify the 112?

GMB@BP
04-08-2018, 02:05 PM
The FAVORITE for the Derby should always be bet against.

Way to much stupid money goes in on the top choice or second choice creating value, in a race where there as sooo many reasons why the best horse does not win.

Pick against the favorite in the Derby and you will almost always come out looking like you know what your doing!

dasch
04-08-2018, 02:22 PM
The FAVORITE for the Derby should always be bet against.

Way to much stupid money goes in on the top choice or second choice creating value, in a race where there as sooo many reasons why the best horse does not win.

Pick against the favorite in the Derby and you will almost always come out looking like you know what your doing!

Since the current point system was implemented 5 years ago the favorites have won all 5 Kentucky Derbys. IMO it eliminated the "sprinter only" types that would always enter and cause chaos type scenarios.

bobozoid
04-08-2018, 02:24 PM
dont forget the drug testing

GMB@BP
04-08-2018, 02:27 PM
Since the current point system was implemented 5 years ago the favorites have won all 5 Kentucky Derbys. IMO it eliminated the "sprinter only" types that would always enter and cause chaos type scenarios.

To small of a sample, and I would argue the best horse didnt win a couple of those despite not being the favorite but I do agree the points system has made it a "truer" race.

Secondbest
04-08-2018, 02:41 PM
I can't quite say what I was expecting but whatever it was I didn't see it.
He did run a sub 38 but as the derby favorite I don't know.

I watched the race again and the stretch run twice . I take back my previous post. Smith was sitting on the turn while Castellano was whipping Bolt so Bolt was gaining . Once Smith went to whip Justify took off I think it was 3 times and he just pulled away.
I didn't see his weight . Curious if it was the same as his prior race.

ultracapper
04-08-2018, 02:48 PM
That fade at the top of the stretch, and the fact, that even though hard pressed from the 5/16ths onward, Bolt D'oro was able to threaten all the way to the 1/16th pole, tells me that if Justify runs into a horse that can finish the move that Bolt D'oro made comes along, Justify will get outrun to the wire. Justify should have put 3 on Bolt D'oro at the 3/16th. MSmith scrubbed him pretty diligently as they straightened and he couldn't put a used Bolt D'oro away for another 250 yards. BDo is a nice horse, but he's 12/1 first Saturday in May.

Justify is a beautiful horse, but either a fuller pre-derby campaign would have made him a monster, or would have exposed him completely. 3 races and off to the KDerby for a horse that faded 4 paths at the top of the stretch in a 7 horse SA Derby after an uncontested :24, :24, :24.3 . NO THANKS.

An aside. Anybody notice the odds change entering the CH turn? 3/5 and 6/5 went to 4/5 and even. Late money flowed to BDo. It may have been big rebate players dutching and making their nickels, or it could have been an educated opinion. It wasn't an out of the question odds move though considering how the race went.

GMB@BP
04-08-2018, 02:51 PM
An aside. Anybody notice the odds change entering the CH turn? 3/5 and 6/5 went to 4/5 and even. Late money flowed to BDo. It may have been big rebate players dutching and making their nickels, or it could have been an educated opinion. It wasn't an out of the question odds move though considering how the race went.

I dont think you can use late money at GP and SA to mean anything, its all the CRW coming in equalizing the board.

ultracapper
04-08-2018, 03:03 PM
Definitely some of that going on.

ultracapper
04-10-2018, 12:46 PM
It appears that you have to be a number maker of some kind to appreciate the effort yesterday. His last 2 races he was beating the equivalent of claimers versus running against a proven grade 1 horse yesterday. People fawned all over him when beating NOTHING and the same people weren't impressed yesterday, LOL

I can say that the SA Derby number was SO EASY to make that I didn't even need for the Oaks to run to verify anything. I had the race equivalent to 133-135 on the Timeform scale and they gave it a 132.

One interesting thing is the Beyer. Doug Salvatore posted on twitter this morning that in the Oaks all 9 horses were given lower beyers than their previous. He thought it should have been 5 points higher and the 107 number given to Justify is 5 points less than the "usual" Timefore to Beyer equivalent. Did they "adjust" the Oaks down so they wouldn't have to give Justify the 112?

I'm one of those. You gotta take it as it comes.

I think I like him stalking better than setting. KD should give him that opportunity also.

Plenty of time to think this through. Hate to see him at too short a price though as there are questions, as there always are with top-end, lightly raced 3 yos. He's gone 7, 8, and 9. Straight to the premier 10 furlong race in the land.

Thank heavens we still have a month to go. He came back to the morning works quickly after the allowance, just as he did after the maiden. The work regimen from here out will be interesting. Couldn't be in better hands. Let's see what the white haired wizard does from here.

dasch
04-10-2018, 01:47 PM
I'm one of those. You gotta take it as it comes.

I think I like him stalking better than setting. KD should give him that opportunity also.

Plenty of time to think this through. Hate to see him at too short a price though as there are questions, as there always are with top-end, lightly raced 3 yos. He's gone 7, 8, and 9. Straight to the premier 10 furlong race in the land.

Thank heavens we still have a month to go. He came back to the morning works quickly after the allowance, just as he did after the maiden. The work regimen from here out will be interesting. Couldn't be in better hands. Let's see what the white haired wizard does from here.


That was why I said I think you have to be a number maker to TRULY appreciate the effort.

Here is my work chart for that race:
Keep in mind I use pace, trip and weight and these are all horses I am very familiar with:

2nd placer@21
3rd@Between21to22
4th@Between21to22
5th@21
6th & 7th were beaten 28 and 30 lengths

The 21 variant gives Justify the highest number I have EVER given a 3yo in a race before the KD. This has me quite impressed and zero doubt about the number. My concerns are that will he be ok after an effort like this? And he has never raced on any other track than SA so has never shipped either.

If the SA Derby Justify shows up at Churchill a big good luck to the rest. If anybody can get him there at his best it's definitely Baffert. Of course there is always the post position draw and trip with 20 horses to overcome as well.

Parson
04-12-2018, 01:26 PM
21 was the variant for SA that day??
Seems high to me

f2tornado
04-12-2018, 01:44 PM
21 was the variant for SA that day??
Seems high to me

It does. I believe there was only one other route on the card that day and it was restricted to fillies. Even the Oaks fillies hit the 3/4 pole a half second faster. I'm skeptical of some of the very high speed figures created for the Santa Anita Derby. Brisnet gave it the highest in points series history in spite of the race being the 19th slowest in race history. It was 12 points higher than American Pharoah's Ark which was the 11th fastest in race history. Equibase rated the race a 108 which is very par for that prep over the last decade. Par for the Santa Anita is still plenty good enough to contend for roses.

dasch
04-12-2018, 02:34 PM
21 was the variant for SA that day??
Seems high to me

The 21 variant is only relative to my numbers. My 21 wont match Timeform's or Beyer's 21. I don't use anybody elses par charts or times. My only reason for showing the variant was because the race lined up as perfectly at it gets including pace, trip and weight which some others leave out and require additional adjustment.

GMB@BP
04-13-2018, 12:44 AM
The problem is people are not looking at the big picture.

Lets say you believe the varient should have not been close to what the chief figure makers made, lets just say it was 20, and you believe it was much closer to say 10. That gives Justify a figure more in line with a good race but close to par for the race, nothing special.

When you do that you have EVERY other winner that day going backwards off their better figures.

You would have midnight bisou with an 80ish figure. Folks, been watching the Oaks for a long long time, thats a good filly right there, she is not a 80 figure horse.

So every dirt winner more or less would go backwards with winning efforts (at leas the ones with established form).

Not how it works. Justify ran really well, the numbers support it. He may flop in the Derby for a variety of reason, but he is a fast horse.

f2tornado
04-13-2018, 08:19 AM
The problem is people are not looking at the big picture.

If I'm not mistaken, there was only one other dirt route that day and it was the Oaks. Have fun putting together figures using comps from a stakes restricted to fillies and a couple sprints. Getting a really big picture, Unique Bella ran a 6F fraction in 1:10.4 at the track this year and won the race. That was two seconds faster than Justify's plodding to the pole. Maybe he's just playing like American Pharoah did in the rebel but I doubt it against a horse like Bolt.

GMB@BP
04-13-2018, 08:39 PM
If I'm not mistaken, there was only one other dirt route that day and it was the Oaks. Have fun putting together figures using comps from a stakes restricted to fillies and a couple sprints. Getting a really big picture, Unique Bella ran a 6F fraction in 1:10.4 at the track this year and won the race. That was two seconds faster than Justify's plodding to the pole. Maybe he's just playing like American Pharoah did in the rebel but I doubt it against a horse like Bolt.

There was two others, and both races featured horses (non maidens) who had established form.

One was Midnight Bisou and other young fillies (they usually go forwards, not backwards) and one start alw race.

How good do you think McKinzie is at 8.5F? Bolt ran him dead even, earned a solid figure, then in a race with a distance that Bolt should have moved forward with figure wise second off a layoff he got drubbed 3 lengths and more or less paired figures up.

There are solid arguments why Justify may not win the Derby (pedigree, experience, large field with random trouble, foundation) but the idea he just is not that fast is no one of them.

I would argue if anything Beyer has the race too SLOW, I dont think Midnight Bisou went backwards, along with all the other fillies in the race. I think Timeform is spot on with the figures they gave. I have no idea about Bris.

The derby is not going to verify the figure, it will take more races from the entire field to know how good or bad the figure was.

jocko699
06-09-2018, 09:11 PM
*Bump* Some hilarious posts in this thread!!!!

RunForTheRoses
06-09-2018, 09:26 PM
*Bump* Some hilarious posts in this thread!!!!


Glad I was an early Fanboy.


https://emojipedia-us.s3.amazonaws.com/thumbs/120/samsung/137/clinking-beer-mugs_1f37b.png

MadVindication
06-10-2018, 09:56 PM
Hopefully he can stay very sound.... OMG!! What an engine. Watch out for this BIG GUY come the first Saturday in May... What an effort... Holy Toledo Batman!!

:ThmbUp: LOL Nice early call here

HalvOnHorseracing
06-11-2018, 08:48 PM
I went to the Belmont this year along with 90-100,000 other people. There were people who took a spot along the paddock fence when the arrived so they wouldn't miss Justify. I have a few complaints about the day and I think I'll probably blog about them.

The biggest stat:

- 7 favorites won, none over 8/5

- 3 longshots over 10-1

- 2 between 5/2 and 9/2

- 1 straggler between 5-1 and 9-1

Over 50% of the winners were low price favorites. You had to work hard to make money.

The track is starting to have that run down Pimlico field. On the third floor grandstand pigeons had obviously taken over some of the rafters, given some areas totally covered in pigeon crap.

The lines for food and drink were long, as were the lines at the betting machines. If there is one thing I'll never get past, it's some idiot with a $10 voucher finally deciding to handicap a race at the window. Or five young guys standing around the machine arguing what to bet.

They had a loud music show inside the facility. It may have attracted more college kids than the races.

One other thing I'd say. You can't see shit without binoculars down the backstretch so you're reduced to watching the chicklets.

I got my glimpse of Justify passing the eighth pole and walked out with a $2 win ticket on him as a souvenir. A long, long day.

Vinnie
06-11-2018, 09:02 PM
:ThmbUp: LOL Nice early call here

Thank you very much MadV.... When I saw him on Feb. 18 his performance gave me goosebumps (chills), however, you know in Horse Racing as brilliant as they can be they are at the same time such fragile animals that you just don't want to be associated with jinxing one of them..... :headbanger: