Not having confidence in your longshots..

[sq764]

The scenario:

You are capping a race and you are locked into a strong horse, meets all your qualifications, has top figures for the race, good jock, good trainer, a few angles, perfectly placed, a no-brainer bet..

You check the tote with 3 mtp and he is 11/1… Now to most confident, experienced cappers, this is a golden situation, loading up, run to the windows..

For me of late, it’s been excitement, then concern.. It’s very strange.. Not sure if I am lacking some confidence in my handicapping, but in these situations where I should be burying this horse at the window, I find myself double-checking as to why he is at such juicy odds.. I think to myself “Am I missing something?”, “Is there another horse coming up really hot in here”, even “Am I looking at the right race?”

I am not entirely sure why I run through these thoughts when I come up with a big price horse, but I have got to get over this.. The other day at Mountaineer, I loved a 9/1 horse.. Punched in a $20 WP wager at Youbet, then thought about it some more, rechecked, and ended up putting $5/$5 on him… Of course he ends up winning and paying $21….

Has anyone run into this ‘block’ and if so, how did you get through it?

Thanks

[alysheba88]

Its not a perfect solution but would bet the same amount to win on every race, regardless of odds.

What you describe afflicts 95% of bettors (or more). The urge to load up on the cant lose 8-5 shot and the fear of betting the horse "no one likes".

As you know, you should welcome the longshots (if your records support them as winning plays) and bet them.

Would not bet place either. A losing strategy in general and most definitely with longshots.

[Valuist]

Another argument for "blind" betting. I've never had the urge to load up on the 8-5 shot, but I know there's been times I've scaled back wagers on a 15-1 shot only to watch it win and collect less money than I should've. I think this happens most often when you're in a slump. Confidence is a little shaken, bankroll is shaken. You've been losing so why not cut corners and scale back the bet? And thats when it comes in.

[sq764]

Yeah, I personally never bet anything under 6/1, but that is because I know my hit rate is lower than chalk players.. So never have had an urge to bet an 8/5 shot..

I feel totally comfortable playing my favorite range of 6/1 to 8/1... But I guess it's the horses that grow to the 15/1 or 20/1 range that make me a little apprehensive..

[CapperLou]

Yes, We have all been there----betting the larger amount on the shorter odds play and getting scared of one that is 10 or 20-1.

You have to somehow discipline yourself to play the same amount on them all.
And---it seems to me that instead of playing a longshot to place, you should put it under one or two others in an exacta--stats have shown you should be ahead this way compared to a place bet. Dick Mitchell did a lot of research and wrote about it in his books a few years back.

Just yesterday it happened to me--I had lost a bet on a horse I liked a lot at DMR, Equal Rights in the 6th--got a terrible ride & when the horse was ready to fly Ruis tried to get thru on rail and got shut off and the rest is history. I was disgusted with the jockey because I knew this one was "live" and the price was right. So, I stopped at DMR for the day.

Then when MNR started---I WATCHED a play win at 2/1 and I said to myself--hey--what's going on here--shape up or go out to dinner. Well, I got myself together and made my next two spot plays that I had at MNR and guess what--one won at 12.60 and the one in the last race was a beauty--21.40--Why So Wild.

Well, I went wild after this one and got my senses back--the point is it happens to the best of us and that's human nature. It is very hard to discipline one's self 100% of the time. That's why those of us who can pick good winners don't own the farm!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[kitts]

Often wrong but never in doubt is my motto.

If it is your pick bet it. And always bet the same amount-all bets are prime bets.

[JimL]

sq764, I was wondering what odds you were expecting on the horse? When the odds offered seem out of line to me I will not hesitate to just watch the race. JimL

[cj]

I think the key is to make a betting line before you go to the track, log on, go to the OTB, or whatever your method is of betting. Then, the decision making is done, its just a matter of tracking the odds.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Some ridiculous thoughts in this thread.

Bet less? You might as well throw in the towel.:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :eek:

I guess betting more is not in anybody's playbook here.

I'm beginning to think that everybody here is gelded.

Confident winning players do not think this way.

[Valuist]

But of course, Mr. Pylons has all the answers because he knows everything! How wonderful of this a$$hole to grace us w/his presence.

[andicap]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Some ridiculous thoughts in this thread.

Bet less? You might as well throw in the towel.:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :eek:

I guess betting more is not in anybody's playbook here.

I'm beginning to think that everybody here is gelded.

Confident winning players do not think this way.

You are missing the point of this thread.
If you read carefully you'll see everyone agrees with you but they have a mental block that prevents them from doing what they know intellecutally needs to be done to become a consistent winner in the game.

The original post said, "You check the tote with 3 mtp and he is 11/1… Now to most confident, experienced cappers, this is a golden situation, loading up, run to the windows."

The question was HOW to overcome that block, not "Should I bet more on longer odds horses," but "How do I overcome my mental block and bet more on longshots?"

As several posters observed accurately, it was probably the one thing that seperates the pretenders from the contenders in this handicapping game. (I'm guilty of the same thing.)

If you have overcome this daunting challenge, well, how nice for you. But you add nothing to the discussion by putting people down.
Why must you always reach for the insult? People here are just trying to learning the game -- why must you always use scorn or reach for the easy jibes such as calling posters "geldings" and some such?

I have learned a lot from this site in the five or so years I've been here. If you find you're not learning anything and would rather do your best Jack E. Leonard imitation (how's that for an obscure reference -- and I'm not even that old!), why hang around? To feel superior?



.

[kingfin66]

Sq,

The way I look at it, you are okay to play the longshot as long as you understand why the public doesn't like it. We know the way to make money in this game is to find the horses that the public has missed. When you find it - bet it. Some will, some won't, so what, next.

[sq764]

CJ, I really don' t use an oddsline, which obviously might make the process a bit easier to overcome.. If I expect a horse to be in my range (6/1 or better), then I see him at 27/1, I really start to wonder what the problem is.

Sometimes I pass the situation and it turns out to be a good move. Other times it does not..

[hurrikane]

sq...if you keep accurate records you should be able to put your worries to rest..or be able to pass the race. Either way..the records you keep will give you the confidence to play or not play.

In my case a horse going up in odds has a positive effect and many times my week is decided by an 8-1 mlo that went off at 20-1. You loose a lot of them..but then at 20-1 you can afford too.

[andicap]

Sometimes of course a horse who is a longshot IS too good to be true. If you're buying a house and every other home on the block went for $300,000 and yours is going for $150,000 are you really getting a bargain or a money pit? Think of longshots as the same way -- you think you're getting a bargain (look at this great horse for such a good price!!), but there's something in the foundation that's cracking.

As Kingfin posted above, the best longshots are those that don't look good to the public, whose virtues are hidden OR have a flaw that the public overinflates in importance enough to stay off the horse.

Examples could be bad trainer or jockey, layoff with no works (trainer might be working on the farm), horse appears "outclassed" or the last race was bad.

I feel the best longshots are those that having something strong going for them but a couple of weaknesses that will keep the public away.
Or if there are a couple of horses hugely overbet, the public will literally overlook a horse who is competitive (to CJ's point) and has a real shot.

I feel much more confident in my longshot plays if I find flaws in the heavily bet horses that the public can't see.







.

[Zaf]

I agree with Capper Lou regarding playing the horse 2nd in an exacta rather than the place. Friday night at Pen my horse got beat but when a logical 7-2 shot beat him I cashed the exacta for $164. A much better return than the $11.20 place price.

I have caught numerous $100 + exactas this way and it is a lot more fun than cashing a $10 place price :cool:

ZAFONIC

[CapperLou]

Well---here is a good story--and it's true!!!

My Equisim software had #4 Babes Glory 43.60 winner of 9th race at Calder today on top several different ways(for those of you who use Equisim).

It was 20-1 ML.

12,500 MdCL on sloppy track today.

This horse dueled with the favorite from the 1/4 pole all the way home and won by 1/2 length.

This thread helped me back this one since I did not have a play all day at Calder due to odds being too short.

So the moral here is that I hope this thread helps you as it did me not to back off or make a smaller wager because of the price.
The favorite ran second and the $2 exacta paid 104.80.

This was the first longshot I have had at Calder since purchasing the software 10th of this month. There is so much chalk at calder it is difficult to find a play that has value. Well, this one certainly did and I hope some of you had it too!!!

As I am writing this--played a 10-1 shot at MNR in 9th Ride Now who led most of way to get beaten ny necks on the wire. He got the same action as the winner at Calder--all in a day's work--cannot win all of them and don't have to!!!!!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[freeneasy]

and he was telling me that some of these guys haan account with them and when they got a horse going they'll call and make a pretty big bet otherwise at certain tracks if they make the same bet then that can knock the odds down to sometimes half. thats why some books have restrictions of up to a certain amount on the win payouts. so sometimes your 11-1 is getting bet offshore. all the better for you my man

[Vegas Kid]

Good topic. I have a few thoughts.

First of all, the reason you are skeptical sometimes is because in your subconsious mind, you believe racing isn't fully honest. You feel that there are people 'in the know' and why would a real good horse be sitting there at 11-1. The best thing to have in your head is that racing is honest, everyone is trying and its mano y mano.

Also, another thing to factor in is you need to become better at predicting odds in advance. In other words, if you select a horse who shows nothing on paper and is 10-1 morning line and goes off at 10-1, that may be a better 10-1 shot than a horse who looks sharp on paper, is 3-1 morning line and is sitting there at 10-1. Some horses are SUPPOSED to be 10-1 because they look bad on paper. Don't think that one of your juicy and 'hidden' longshots should automatically be 3-1.

Always remember that the odds are determined strictly by what it shows on paper. People aren't visionaries, they can only bet on what looks good. People can't make a horse who looks bad on paper a short price no matter how good the horse is in real life.

Before the day starts and you like a longshot, ask yourself, "how good does this horse look on paper"

Also, the most overbet 'angle' in racing is a trouble trip. If your
10-1 morning line pick has a comment in the form that says, "blocked, steadied 3/8ths" you can bet every last dollar that you have that you won't be getting 10-1. People hammer these horses down. You can't get anymore value on horses with trouble-trip comments in the form.

When you see a bomb you like, go for the gold. People make mistakes, just tell yourself this is one mistake you are going to take advantage of.

[andicap]

One last post and I'm off to the Spa.

Last time at Belmont, I liked a 14-1 shot, but there was an odds-on in the race and I was shying away from him for all the reasons listed in this thread.
My wife (bless her) said, "have confidence in your picks! Go for it."

So I did and bet it WP and keyed in exactas.
Came in 2nd to the chalk and paid $10 to place (an overlay -- 4-1 to place for a horse I thought had a decent shot) and the exacta was $52 behind an odds-on.

Made some nice money and my wife got to remind me how smart she is.

I guess I'll be losing until she arrives next Monday.
:D

Glad the Vegas Kid reiterated my points in this thread. Nice to have someone back you up.

:D

[TOOZ]

Consider the track you are betting. 500 bucks on your horse at
Mountaneer might make him 7-1 instead of 11-1. If I like 11-1's at
smaller tracks, I wouldn't even think twice about betting them.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Valuist
Another argument for "blind" betting. I've never had the urge to load up on the 8-5 shot, but I know there's been times I've scaled back wagers on a 15-1 shot only to watch it win and collect less money than I should've.

Wow! :rolleyes:

Let's use a moronic solution ("blind" betting), to solve a horrible wagering flaw (betting less as the value increases). That sounds like a good idea which usually equals success!

If you were a doctor, you would obviously prescribe cyanide for a broken finger.

You should write a book about "blind betting", it seems to be your field of expertise and personal stroke of genius. It would make my job much easier.

[Valuist]

Pylons-

If I was a doctor, I'd only prescribe cyanide for you.

[chickenhead]

Originally posted by sq764
Has anyone run into this ‘block’ and if so, how did you get through it?

keep records....if you see it in black and white that, yes, you know what you are doing under thezse circumstances, it will help you to be confident on your bets today. If your records show that maybe you don't know what you're doing in today's conditions....then maybe backing off is a good idea.

Pylons is obviously right about the wagering part....I try and think of it as blackjack wagering...when the odds (overlay) increase in your favor...you bet more and more....when the overlay is small you bet less.

[keilan]

While pylons writes with a biting edge the majority of the time, his comments are generally spot-on. Though I have little doubt that he is a successful player I for one would like to see him throw a few pics in the selection’s forum. If worried about hurting your odds then post a couple minutes before the races go or on occasion pop into the war room. :)

[alysheba88]

ITP is very sharp and speaks the truth. The truth hurts sometimes.

[Valuist]

If he has any credibility at all, he hasn't proven it yet.

[Macdiarmadillo]

sq764, looks like you're right on the bubble between winner and loser. You essentially have to take advantage of those overlay situations, it is THE difference at the end of the year.

With 3 minutes to post, you have that much to think about to go back and change your bet? And a 6-1 minimum requirement and that one was only 11-1? Perhaps 25-1 and you would cancel the bet? If you're betting "scared money" then the game is not for you, at least not for serious amounts of money, whatever that may be to you. Then it would help your confidence and well-being to cut back to $10 bets or less. If you operate like this in real life, no additional tool will convince you, and the game is not for you. Perhaps just as cruel as Pylons, but that's what I think. It's clear you already know what you "should" be doing.

Valuist, we know what you mean regarding "blind betting". Be careful about the cyanide cocktails; he might just like them and start demanding a thermos-full every racing day.:D

[socantra]

I still tjink the easiest solution I've seen is Doc Sartin's old rubber band remedy. Wear a rubber band around your wrist, and once you make a solid decision, snap it real hard every time you start to have doubts.

You're a solid capper sq. You just need something to remind you there was a reason for the decision in the first place.

socantra...

[Binder]

Sq

Did you try the excerise From The Psychology of Winning
manual I sent you

on page 18 .

Were Doc asks the reader
To make 20 $5 win bets
$2 on the higher odds and $3.00
on the low odds horse

I think it can help you its 20 Bets

I think you should try it and like Doc Says
write down your results and also write down any feelings you have
Like this is stupid or whatever
Just try it a few times if you fail just start over

It really helps me Snap back when I start to panic

Good Skill
Binder
V/DC Messenger

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Valuist
Pylons-

If I was a doctor, I'd only prescribe cyanide for you.

If you were my doctor, I'd take it with a smile!

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by chickenhead
Pylons is obviously right about the wagering part....I try and think of it as blackjack wagering...when the odds (overlay) increase in your favor...you bet more and more....when the overlay is small you bet less.

Chickenhead,

Obvious to you and I, but amazingly not to others. It seems as though most need a gun to their head to bet an equal amount on a price. I wonder what horrible predicament is needed to do the correct thing and bet MORE!?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by keilan
While pylons writes with a biting edge the majority of the time, his comments are generally spot-on. Though I have little doubt that he is a successful player I for one would like to see him throw a few pics in the selection’s forum. If worried about hurting your odds then post a couple minutes before the races go or on occasion pop into the war room. :)

Thanks Keilan.

While sometimes I have a good idea what I'm playing ahead of time, the vast majority of the time, I don't know how I am going to attack a race until 2 MTP or less. I'm usually on the phone until the bell rings and then it would take another 10 minutes to type my plays in. My picks are no longer my strength as I now focus on mainly wagering. Maybe during Fpx as that is one of the few tracks where I sometimes look ahead instead of going race by race.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by alysheba88
The truth hurts sometimes.

So true sheba.

I'm still learning all the time.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Valuist
If he has any credibility at all, he hasn't proven it yet.

What proof do you need?

A handicapping tournament victory? What a joke that would be. :rolleyes:

For me to be a highly regarded author on handicapping? Another joke.

I'm sorry for guys like you that they don't have the handicapping/wagering equivalent to a PGA Tour event on TV every week where you would soon realize that your self-proclaimed brilliant 75 at your local club is light years behind the game that the "real" players play.

Maybe if I would advocate your "betting blind" stoke of genius, that would give me credibility.:D

It's tough to gain credibility with a close minded person like yourself.

Here is a post where you called me names and made many moronic observations about me. I replied to every one of them and you all of a sudden lost your voice because you realized that you really don't understand.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&postid=113686#post113686

[melman]

Inside just your reply to Keilan tells me all I need to know. Attacking a race and forming or crafting the best betting plan are part and parcel of how I see all winning players get it done. And as Keith also said you do have a "cutting edge" to your comments. Some may take that the wrong way Inside but people will always see things differently. I also see nothing wrong with posting a "first take" at a few of the races in the selections forum. Think Steve Wolson has done a fine job with that. At the same time you have little to gain with any selections posts as I well know. LOL Think you would like the War Room and have you ever tried betting with the internet instead of the phone?? I switched over a few years back after the internet became much more of a "certain" deal. Have very little problems with getting the bet in and find in easier to craft a bet than by doing it on the phone. Keep posting from time to time "even with the cutting edge". LOL

[keilan]

While sometimes I have a good idea what I'm playing ahead of time, the vast majority of the time, I don't know how I am going to attack a race until 2 MTP or less. I'm usually on the phone until the bell rings and then it would take another 10 minutes to type my plays in. My picks are no longer my strength as I now focus on mainly wagering. Maybe during Fpx as that is one of the few tracks where I sometimes look ahead instead of going race by race.


Your comments are fair.

I look forward to your occasional posting during the Fpx meet. Also drop into the war room once in awhile, some very good players hang there. We also have two resident harness cappers (JoeG & Melman) that routinely catch high priced horses.

[Valuist]

Pylons-

Lets see, you post a link in which you attack both me and Game Theory. Didn't exactly prove your point. But I had forgotten that you make 50-60 wagers a day on flats, harness and quarters. Just remembering that is enough to make me believe you are lost. As for close minded, you are the one who is close minded. I brought up a (a as in single NOT the only) possible solution and you attacked me. You are the close minded one. As far as I'm concerned, you are on ignore and not worth any more time. Go ahead and respond to those who kiss your ass.